There are a number of states that are on a path to higher electricity bills and less reliability, including S.C. Why? Because the S.C. Governor and the Legislature are still stuck on Net Zero Carbon. I thought it might be informative to list 10 unpopular truths:
Hard Truths that Apply to S.C. as Well as All Other U.S. States
New nuclear plants will take decades to be built to replace existing coal and gas units
Electricity generation for Dispatchable Electricity Generation capacity takes years to build
Most of our electricity today comes from power plants that are more than 30 years old. S.C. examples: The Wateree coal plant began operation in 1970, Duke Energy’s Oconee nuclear plant, the largest in South Carolina, first unit started up in 1973, and the first Santee-Cooper Cross Unit began operation in 1984 and Winyah 1975.
The major production cost component of electricity generation for Thermal Power Plants is fuel
The proven lowest production cost of electricity is from coal, nuclear and gas
Coal prices have remained stable for decades
Gas prices are volatile and can fluctuate with market changes. Low gas prices into the future are not guaranteed
Wind, Solar, and Battery storage are higher-cost producers of Bulk Power. Forget the “Free Fuel Myth of Wind and Solar”. All states and countries that have taken the S.C. Net-Zero Carbon path now have high-cost electricity
South Carolina is on a similar primary energy path as Germany was fifteen years ago
It takes decades for the impact of energy policies to be felt by consumers and industry
Here is a presentation to the Beaufort Federation of Republican Men, which summarizes the S.C. path to higher cost electricity.
Bulk Power Supply and Demand Projections to 2052
The Supply/Demand Chart of Santee-Cooper is shown below. Note the plan to reduce coal power generation and replace it with gas, purchased power and variable renewables.
A Better Path: Build New Coal Plants
The low country of South Carolina has been well served by Santee-Cooper since 1934. Also known as South Carolina Public Service Authority. SCPSA is state owned and controlled.
Like TVA, Santee-Cooper began with hydroelectric generation and as with TVA, the electricity demand rapidly increased to loads far in excess of the available hydroelectric capacity. Thus coal plants were built and for most of the last 80 years most of the electricity generation has been from coal fuel. This continues to be the case. The screenshot below is the electricity generation the week of December 2, 2024. The primary energy provided for the power production was 77% coal fuel at this time and it will be needed again this coming winter.
To this day most of the Santee-Cooper installed power generation capacity is coal power plants. Here is a list of their generating assets. Over 60% are dispatchable and proven to be affordable coal power. Electricity costs in our region has been amongst the lowest in the U.S. for decades. Thanks to coal fuel. As the transition to more renewables and more backup natural gas is made, the cost of Bulk Power generation will increase as it has in Germany, the UK, Hawaii, CT, MA, NJ and other states that are ahead of S.C. in transitioning from coal to more renewable energy. The so called “Energy Transition” is the root cause of increasing electric rates. Hawaii as a poster child example of a transition to expensive “Green New Deal” renewables.
What About Industry?
About a third of S.C. electricity is used by industry. This is important for U.S. security, competitiveness and for the jobs industry provides. For the low country of S.C. there are at least two very energy intensive industries; Century Aluminum and Nucor Steel. Both of these industries use hundreds of Megawatts for steel and aluminum production. The main reason the plants were built in S.C. was because of reasonable cost electricity provided by Santee-Cooper. The Century Aluminum plant at full capacity will use over 400 MW and each Nucor plant about 175 MW. These two companies alone represent 24/7 Demand that is about a quarter of the huge Cross Generating Station’s capacity.
Can We Learn From the Experiences of Germany, the UK, California, Hawaii, Connecticut and New Jersey?
Each of these states & countries have been working toward a transition away from coal and toward renewables. In each case the electric rates have escalated to the point that they have caused industries to shut down and harmed the industrial capacity of the countries or states. Electricity is the LifeBlood of an economy. Ask a knowledgeable German citizen about the results of their energy transition.
The high German electricity rates have caused many very well run and established companies to shut down and/or relocate manufacturing into other countries. Three examples are BASF, Krupp Steel and VW
The Optimum Future Electricity Generation Capacity
A Balanced generation portfolio is optimum as a hedge against fuel cost escalation, security of generation and reliability of generation. In my experience and based on the well documented experiences of other states and countries, a balanced generation portfolio of no more than 20% renewables with the balance of generation from dispatchable sources such as nuclear, gas and coal, is best. Plenty of references are listed below (also the chart above) which show the results of over-reliance on windmills solar and battery backup or BESS (Battery Electricity Storage and Supply).
Conclusions
The main point I wish to make here is that Bulk Power, that is huge amounts of electricity generation from large power plants take years, even decades to replace or to use the word more common today, Transition. Most of the vital 24/7 electricity supply to S.C. is provided by aging power plants. Examples, Oconee about 53 years, Wateree about 55, Winyah 50 and Cross about 40 years old.
As reliable, affordable and dispatchable coal plants are shut down the electric production cost will increase and along with the rising production cost, eventually increased rates.
Building new coal plants as once was planned at the Pee Dee plant site, was and still is a good idea. So is building more nuclear plants but that takes time.
My suggestion for the S.C. Legislature is to remove the Net-Zero Carbon laws that are on the books and to provide ample funds for maintenance of the existing coal plants serving S.C. so well.
Electric generation capacity of Dominion and Santee-Cooper about 12,000 MW of Bulk Power Capacity: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hjyEG/5/ Duke Energy about 6600MW
The S.C. Legislature has laws on the books to exit coal power and depend on gas, nuclear, solar, wind and Battery backup systems (BESS). All of which are higher cost generation than coal. https://www.scstatehouse.gov/sess126_2025-2026/bills/3309.htm
Wind, solar and BESS systems need to be backed up by Dispatchable generation. Usually that backup (and planned for S.C) is natural gas fueled generating plants. Therefore, one reason electricity costs are higher with solar and wind is because two to four times the generation capacity is needed over a coal or nuclear plant. Solar and wind are intermittent generators dependent on nature. Solar averages about 6 hours per day of generation.
This column was written by Orlando Sentinel Columnist, Charley Reese. I first discovered it from an email a friend sent to me about 2010.
So, why did it interest me again today? Because I am completely flummoxed….why elected officials act and support un-American policies, such as; Restricting U.S. Energy production, Open Borders, protection of illegal immigrants, Sanctuary Cities, Defunding the Police, protection of criminals, engaging in “Lawfare” against Donald Trump, Inflationary Laws (IRA which codified the Green New Deal) and more…
Read the column and then ponder what your thoughts might be on why the 545 have not acted in the best interests of and for America? Who funds their election campaigns?
545 vs. 300,000,000 People…Charley Reese’s final column for the Orlando Sentinel in 2001…
The following is Charley Reese’s final column for the Orlando Sentinel in 2001… He was a journalist for 49 years, but passed away May 2013 He was retiring and this was HIS LAST COLUMN.
This is about as clear and easy to understand as it can be. The article below is completely neutral, neither anti-Republican nor Democrat. Charlie Reese, a retired reporter for the Orlando Sentinel, has hit the nail directly on the head, defining clearly who it is that in the final analysis must assume responsibility for the judgments made that impact each one of us every day. It’s a short but good read. Worth the time. Worth remembering!
545 vs. 300,000,000 People By Charlie Reese
Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them.
Have you ever wondered, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, WHY do we have deficits?
Have you ever wondered, if all the politicians are against inflation and high taxes, WHY do we have inflation and high taxes?
You and I don’t propose a federal budget. The President does.
You and I don’t have the Constitutional authority to vote on appropriations. The House of Representatives does.
You and I don’t write the tax code, Congress does.
You and I don’t set fiscal policy, Congress does.
You and I don’t control monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank does.
One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one President, and nine Supreme Court justices equates to 545 human beings out of the 300 million are directly, legally, morally, and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country.
I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that problem was created by Congress. In 1913, Congress delegated its Constitutional duty to provide a sound currency to a federally chartered, but private, central bank.
I excluded all the special interests and lobbyists for a sound reason. They have no legal authority. They have no ability to coerce a senator, a congressman, or a President to do one cotton-picking thing. I don’t care if they offer a politician $1 million dollars in cash. The politician has the power to accept or reject it. No matter what the lobbyist promises, it is the legislator’s responsibility to determine how he votes.
Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that what they did is not their fault. They cooperate in this common con regardless of party.
What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive amount of gall. No normal human being would have the gall of a Speaker, who stood up and criticized the President for creating deficits. The President can only propose a budget. He cannot force Congress to accept it.
The Constitution, which is the supreme law of the land, gives sole responsibility to the House of Representatives for originating and approving appropriations and taxes. Who is the speaker of the House now? She and fellow House members, not the President, can approve any budget they want. If the President vetoes it, they can pass it over his veto if they agree to.
It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 300 million cannot replace 545 people who stand convicted – by present facts – of incompetence and irresponsibility. I can’t think of a single domestic problem that is not traceable directly to those 545 people. When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise the power of the federal government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to exist.
If the tax code is unfair, it’s because they want it unfair.
If the budget is in the red, it’s because they want it in the red.
If the Army and Marines are in Iraq and Afghanistan it’s because they want them in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If they do not receive social security but are on an elite retirement plan not available to the people, it’s because they want it that way.
There are no insoluble government problems.
Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate and from whom they can take this power. Above all, do not let them con you into the belief that there exists disembodied mystical forces like “the economy,” “inflation,” or “politics” that prevent them from doing what they take an oath to do.
Those 545 people and they alone, are responsible.
They and they alone, have the power.
They and they alone should be held accountable by the people who are their bosses. Provided the voters have the gumption to manage their own employees.
We should vote all of them out of office and clean up their mess!
What you do with this article now that you have read it is up to you. This might be funny if it weren’t so true. Be sure to read all the way to the end:
Tax his land, Tax his bed, Tax the table, At which he’s fed.
Tax his tractor, Tax his mule, Teach him taxes Are the rule.
Tax his work, Tax his pay, He works for peanuts anyway!
Tax his cow, Tax his goat, Tax his pants, Tax his coat.
Tax his ties, Tax his shirt, Tax his work, Tax his dirt.
Tax his tobacco, Tax his drink, Tax him if he Tries to think.
Tax his cigars, Tax his beers, If he cries Tax his tears.
Tax his car, Tax his gas, Find other ways To tax his ass.
Tax all he has Then let him know That you won’t be done Till he has no dough.
When he screams and hollers; Then tax him some more, Tax him till He’s good and sore.
Then tax his coffin, Tax his grave, Tax the sod in Which he’s laid…
Put these words Upon his tomb, ‘Taxes drove me to my doom…’
When he’s gone, Do not relax, Its time to apply The inheritance tax.
Accounts Receivable Tax Building Permit Tax CDL license Tax Cigarette Tax Corporate Income Tax Dog License Tax Excise Taxes Federal Income Tax Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA) Fishing License Tax Food License Tax Fuel Permit Tax Gasoline Tax (currently 44.75 cents per gallon) Gross Receipts Tax Hunting License Tax Inheritance Tax Inventory Tax IRS Interest Charges IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax) Liquor Tax Luxury Taxes Marriage License Tax Medicare Tax Personal Property Tax Property Tax Real Estate Tax Service Charge Tax Social Security Tax Road Usage Tax Recreational Vehicle Tax Sales Tax School Tax State Income Tax State Unemployment Tax (SUTA) Telephone Federal Excise Tax Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax Telephone Federal, State and Local Surcharge Taxes Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax Telephone Recurring and Nonrecurring Charges Tax Telephone State and Local Tax Telephone Usage Charge Tax Utility Taxes Vehicle License Registration Tax Vehicle Sales Tax Watercraft Registration Tax Well Permit Tax Workers Compensation Tax
STILL THINK THIS IS FUNNY? · Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago, and our nation was the most prosperous in the world. · We had absolutely no national debt, had the largest middle class in the world, and Mom, if agreed, stayed home to raise the kids.
What in the hell happened? Can you spell ‘politicians?’
I hope this goes around THE USA at least 545 times! YOU can help it get there!
GO AHEAD. . . BE AN AMERICAN!
Thank you Charley Reese, RIP
Tomorrow is Thanksgiving and I have much to be thankful for. Amongst those Blessings are being born in the United States of America, marrying my wonderful wife of over 60 years, a wonderful family all with all of them being healthy, living a long life, working a career that I loved and one last huge Blessing, the election of Donald Trump as our next President, who will lead the draining of the Washington, DC SWAMP.
May God continue to Bless the United States of America and May all of the citizens wake up, appreciate and thank God for all we have.
The Biden-Harris Administration and Congressional Democrats are Self Righteous, Environmental Zealots with low energy IQ’s, they are seriously misguided and have created anti-American energy policies that are impossible to achieve. These self righteous Bureaucrats and elected officials are detached from energy reality and are destroying our country. As the quote by Churchill’s Minister of Labour said, “Heaven Runs on Righteousness and the Earth Runs on Energy” Biden, Harris and the Democrats do not understand this.
My retired engineer friends and me are amongst the 5% or so of Americans that understand energy and electricity generation. These enviro-zealot government policy makers have been placed in office by the 95% majority that does NOT understand energy and electricity generation.
The majority of Americans have been misguided into believing carbon is an existential threat, worse than nuclear weapons or other catastrophes.
How? by the Main Stream Media, Entertainment personalities, “Woke” corporations and misguided, low energy IQ politicians.
President Biden has stated that Climate Change is an Existential Threat Facing Humanity He is wrong. The war on carbon is the threat to America’s future.
Coal power has provided the foundation of America’s Industrial strength and our high quality of life. Coal continues to be important, especially during times of peak Demand. Especially winter. For Industrial production, coal is used to produce 70% of the world’s steel, 90% of cement and 61% of the aluminum.
Energy is the Lifeblood of a Developed Country’s industrial productive capacity, social functioning, food production and job creating economy. The environmental Zealots are doing their best to bleed out the energy Lifeblood of our country.
Energy is the economy, it fuels our way of life and supports a strong national defense.
One Engineer’s Steam Venting Rant
Yes, some may say I am a grumpy old man. Well, maybe I am. As I see it, I have a lot to be grumpy about. I am not alone, I know dozens of other veteran engineers that worked the same productive decades I did, beginning in the 1960’s. We studied and worked hard, long hours and we did our best to contribute to building a better America. Especially, the reliable, affordable electric Grid. After working for over 50 years to do our parts in building the “Largest Machine in the World” the American Electric Grid, here we are watching as misguided enviro-zealots destroy the foundation of what we helped build. These enviro-zealots have low energy IQ’s, nearly zero understanding of how reliable power generation functions and as they work against the fuels we depend on. Worse yet, they do not seem to care about the consequences for our country.
I predict that Blackouts will become more common and power costs will continue to escalate, thanks to the Net-Zero carbon path the U.S. is on. The “Inflation Reduction Act” codified the “Green New Deal” into law and the increased anti carbon Regulations of the EPA and other Alphabet soup Federal agencies have America on a perilous path.
This winter will be difficult and it is likely that there will be more lives lost, such as Texas experienced in 2021 with the winter Blackouts. I am steamed up and this commentary is my way of venting that steam.
Electricity in the 1950’s to 1970’s
Let me quote a 1950 magazine ad by Babcock & Wilcox. The last line reads:
“B&W will cooperate with our busy Utilities for still further improvement-in service-and a way of life-that have made America great and strong”
My compliments to B&W, C-E, FW, G-E, Westinghouse, Riley, Alis-Chalmers, DeLaval (and many other fine U.S. supply-chain companies with hundreds of thousands of employees) and the electric Utility industry, yes they succeeded to make America Great and Strong!
For over a hundred years, America had the most reliable, most reasonable cost electricity Grid of any major nation. America set the standard of being the best at providing affordable and dependable electricity. The economy grew and the use of coal paralleled the growth of GDP.
Then the “War on Coal” began. I am still at a loss as to why there was so much angst against the very fuel that powered America through two World Wars and built the largest industrial economy in the history of the world. I have written much on the war on coal and some of the people and organizations that promoted the “Self Inflicted Electricity Crisis“(1,2,3,4, 5, 6, 7, 8,9,10,11) If you wish more background, much has been published, kindly read the referenced commentaries and references included at the end.
Here are some of my personal experiences and some of the reasons why I am irritated at the enviro-zealots.
America Had Over 100 Years of Affordable, Reliable, Abundant and Dispatchable Electricity Until the War On Coal Began in the 1990’s. Now, the Infra-Structure that provided the Foundation of our Reliable Electric Grid is Being Destroyed byPolicymakers that are either misinformed or they have low energy IQ’s and have NOT done their homework. U.S. Energy Policymakers have created this crisis, right before our eyes. In 2010 about 30% of the U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity was provided by Coal Fueled Power Plants and right at 50% of electricity generation was from coal fuel. Since 2010 about half of these have been shut down. Suitable replacement of new electricity generation should have been built first before destroying about half of the reliable coal plants in America. A Balanced Portfolio would and should have included new nuclear plants, new High Efficiency, Low Emissions (HELE) coal plants and of course, natural gas combined cycle plants.
At least 125,000 MW’s of New, In Kind Generation Capacity should have been built before destroying the existing reliable, affordable and Dispatchable coal plants.
I will attempt to explain what is being done to destroy electricity reliability and what should be done: Here is an example of a typical large Utility Coal Power Plant. The Roxboro Generating Plant of Duke Energy near Roxboro, NC. The first unit started up in 1966 and Unit #4 in 1980. This one is special to me, because I was the startup engineer for Unit #3 in 1973 and I worked at the plant on all four units for several different companies over my career. So, I am very familiar with all the plant major equipment.
This plant when operating at 2500 MWh and an 80% load factor will consume about 700 tons of coal per hour. This is seven full railroad coal cars. When operating as designed, it would consume about six million tons of coal per year. Let me compare this large Thermal Plant with a large Hydro Plant, say the Robert Moses Hydro-Electric plant at Niagara Falls. This one thermal power plant in Roxboro produces as much as this huge facility and it fits on a real-estate parcel of a few thousand acres. The Robert Moses hydroelectric plant is powered by rainwater runoff from eight U.S. states and one Canadian Province. The outflow of most of the water from the Great Lakes flows to the Niagara River and through the hydroelectric generators installed there.
Comparison of Energy Density, Coal, Hydro and Solar
How Much Power Generation is 2500 MW? Did You Ever Visit Niagara Falls? The U.S. Side New York Power Authority Generation Station that uses the American share of the total outflow of the Great Lakes is about the same size in Electricity Generation Capability as the Roxboro Coal Plant. The energy density of hydroelectric power is very low, it takes enormous amounts of land area and elevation change to provide the potential for hydroelectric generation. In North America, all the large sources of falling water have been utilized. Solar power to replace a coal plant the size of Roxboro has an even lower energy density, and it would require between 40 and 160 square miles of land area to provide intermittent 25% capacity factor generation when the weather permits. With battery storage, about 160 square miles would be required to replace a 2500 MW fossil plant. Even then solar power is weather dependent on clouds and sunshine. On reliability, a snowstorm will reduce output to zero and a hailstorm destroy the capacity for months until the panels can be replaced.
So, What’s the Problem?
Over 122,000 MW of electric power generation capacity has been demolished. This is the equivalent of 50 power plants the size of Roxboro Generating Station or the size of the Robert Moses Hydro-electric plant in Niagara Falls, NY.
There has NOT been a major new coal plants built in the U.S. since 2013. Yet, America is the Saudi Arabia of coal and within our country is the highest quality, high BTU, low ash coal found on the planet.
Low Energy IQ Decision in Minnesota
Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota presided over the war on coal in Minnesota. Cheered on by CNN, here is the article where Minnesota and the “Woke” Utility serving that area have decided to shut down the very reliable Sherco Coal Plant (about 2700 MW) and replace it with solar panels. I am not kidding. Here is the link to the CNN article. From an energy and electricity planning standpoint, this is ludicrous. I have worked at the Sherco plant and it is, or at least was well run and well maintained. Like Roxboro Plant mentioned above, capable of generating electricity 24/7 in any kind of weather. Including during snow storms, hail storms, and cloudy days. This is irresponsible at the least. To be fair, it had to be agreed to by Xcel Energy’s “Woke” top management, who obviously have to know better? In my mind, I am at a loss to understand how Utility management can accept pressure from the government without educating the public and pushing back on un-American regulations. When Sherco is shut down, the winters in Minnesota will be more expensive and more difficult for the industries and residents.
Here are a couple of quotes from the CNN article by Xcel Energy President when talking about replacing the coal generation with solar panels: “It allows us to move much more quickly,” said Ryan Long, Xcel Energy’s Minnesota president, who called reusing the plant’s infrastructure “a real key to our strategy here.”
“We’re a good wind and solar state,” Wyckoff said. “Anything we burn that’s fossil fuel, we are importing. We are making the wind and solar electricity here.”
It’s also a huge step forward for Minnesota’s climate and clean energy goals. Under its Democratic governor and 2024 vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz, the state is aggressively trying to decarbonize its power sector — getting to 100% clean electricity by 2040.
“That is a key driver for how we’re going to decarbonize the rest of the economy,” Wykoff said. “We’re aiming to be clean economy-wide by 2050. And I think we can get there.”
Hmmm, I suggest revisiting the viability of solar to replace coal in January or the next Polar Vortex.
How Do We Treat the Most Reliable, Most Affordable Electric Generating Plants in the U.S.?
The picture above is the implosion of the Sutton Unit #3 at Duke Energy near Wilmington, NC. This one is also personal to me, because I was also the lead Boiler Startup engineer in charge in 1972 when Sutton #3 went into commercial operation.
To generate 122,000 MW, (a conservative estimate of the total reliable coal generation capacity destroyed since 2010) it would take 290 plants like this.
Who is Cheering as these Reliable Coal Plants are Demolished?
The Sierra Club website keeps score on their “Beyond Coal” Campaign and they show 385 total coal Units shut down since 2010. According to the Sierra Club, only 145 to go.
Oh yes, there are in fact other’s that are cheering for America to sabotage our electric Grid…..
Two fair questions can be asked:
1. Who cares?
2. Do we really need these old coal plants?
I will answer the questions with an emphatic Yes, I care and Yes, we need them! We do need the remaining 145 coal plants.
What Should America be Doing? In my opinion, we should be building new nuclear power plants right now. Also, at least 50 new HELE (High Efficiency, Low Emissions) 2500 MW coal plants. Until a new and expanded nuclear fleet can be designed, built constructed and proven, we should reinforce our electricity Grid with more conventional and Dispatchable generation. A coal plant handles the “Energy Storage” security concern by having the inherent capability of storing months of fuel on site. Electricity generation is Not dependent on “just in time” pipeline provided gas flow.
Overall, America produces about 16% of our electricity from coal fuel. However, three important differences of coal plants compared to solar and wind are: Coal power is Dispatchable. Coal plants can be ramped up in power output to match the Demand. Wind and solar are intermittent and are therefore, Non-Dispatchable. Some advantages of a coal plant:
Fuel Storage on site
Coal power is less expensive to produce
Coal power generation is dependable in all weather conditions, 24/7
The greatest need for coal plants come at peak Demand hours in the summer and the winter. Especially winter.
Energy Powers Economic Prosperity Reasonable electricity cost is especially important for Industrial production. For example, production of primary metals such aluminum, steel and copper use enormous amounts of electricity. Aluminum smelting requires 5 kWh per pound of aluminum smelted from aluminum oxide. That 5 kWh does not include the processing of Bauxite into alumina, transportation and ingot remelting, forging or sheet production. In my state of S.C. we have an aluminum smelter operated by Century Aluminum and a couple of steel mills operated by NUCOR. These use hundreds of Megawatts of power and that power must be of reasonable cost to remain competitive. When it comes to economic strength, it is Industrial production that provides the jobs that allow families to prosper. Over 40% of the world’s primary energy use is for primary metals production and manufacturing. Reasonable cost, reliable electricity generation is a pre-requisite for Economic Prosperity and especially, job providing Industrial production.
What About Wind and Solar? Can these Renewables Replace Fossil Fuels?
In terms of PRIMARY Energy, wind and solar, after decades of subsidies, provide an insignificant quantity of America’s Primary Energy.
The war on coal fueled power stations is contributing to the coming electricity reliability crisis. The War on Coal” is self-Inflicted and anti-American. Wind and Solar cannot replace the PRIMARY Energy of coal, nuclear and gas. Six materials that our society depends on require enormous amounts of energy and cannot be electrified: Steel, Aluminum, Plastics, Ammonia Fertilizer and Cement.
Electricity is Secondary Energy. Electrifying everything is impossible and needs to be evaluated by a new President and Congressional Leaders that care about the future of our country. Biden-Harris and the Democrats act as if they are puppets of Xi Jinping, Putin and the Ayatollah, working to weaken the U.S. from within.
So, What about China and the Rest of the World?
In 2023, more coal was burned in the world than ever in recorded history. Developing countries and the second largest economy of the world China are lifting people from poverty and increasing manufacturing using conventional forms of power generation, including coal. China now has over 400 new ultra-supercritical, coal plants either in permitting stages or under construction. China uses about 56% of the world’s total coal consumption to power its manufacturing economy. Long story short on the “Earth Running on Energy”, China Gets it!
China uses about 10 times the coal consumption of the U.S. In fact, China accounts for 56% of global coal demand. In 2022, coal provided more than 60% of China’s power generation.
What Would it Take to Replace Fossil Fuels for Electricity Generation?
The 2023 book by Donn Dears outlined what it would take to replace coal and gas power generation in the U.S. Here is his summary:
Nuclear power is the largest carbon free form of electric power generation and the best hope for the future. However, as Mr. Dears points out, it would take about 31 nuclear plant expansions such as that just completed last year at Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle. That 2,200 MW expansion took over ten years to complete. Now how feasible is it for the U.S. supply-chain (including skilled talent) to build 31 Plant Vogtles every year from now till 2050?
Conclusions
America has NO Energy Policy only a Decarbonization PolicyOnly Climate Policies that attack the very fuels that our country depends upon. The Net-Zero Carbon Path that America is on will weaken if not destroy our country’s productive capacity. Worse yet, if CO2 emissions are a concern, then shutting down all of America’s coal plants will not make a difference anyway. Further, the science of Anthropogenic Climate Change is NOT settled and there are many Scientists that have strong arguments that the consumption of carbon is only a minor contributor to Climate Change. So, why destroy America’s productive capacity and cede further manufacturing jobs to China or other countries of the world? Especially when the so called “Climate Crisis” is really Climate Fraud. (181,182)
Much of this was presented at the Liberty University CEO-Summit September 24th in Lynchburg, VA.
Yours truly,
Dick Storm, October 3, 2024
Note: To give credit where it is due, the title is a paraphrase of Churchill’s Minister of Labour, Ernest Bevin. The full quote attributed to him: “The Kingdom of Heaven Runs on Righteousness,The Kingdom of Earth Runs on Energy”
Vaclav Smil book: “The Way the World Really Works” Dr. Steve Koonin book: “Unsettled” Science based web site on Climate Science: https://climate4you.com
Here’s what the IPCC really believes about the effects of climate change compared to other factors. All the rest is scare tactics, and gross exaggeration. No way 0.5C increase in temperature, if it occurs, could be anything but positive. Note the use of the words “small” & large” Dr. Pat&t=jx86j0I-tJuKCNreXz1BDA
Donn Dears book, “Have No Fear”
Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery book, “UnstoppableGlobal Warming” published 2007 Book, “Hot Talk, Cold Science” 3rd edition, 2021, By Singer, Legates and Lupo
CO2 Coalition has an extensive web site with more science based Climate and Atmospheric Science information: https://co2coalition.org
You Tube Presentation on the Influence of the Sun on Earth’s Climate, also at 3 minutes 10 seconds into the video, the recent excellent paper on Net Zero Carbon by William Happer, Richard Lindzen and W. A. van Wijngaarden is discussed, (link below) June 12, 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfhbEDuZXDs
The Great State of South Carolina is usually thought of as a “Conservative” state. However, when it comes to applying destructive “Climate Policies”, South Carolina is no more conservative than is California or New York. So, I thought I would repost my comments on the Santee-Cooper IRP.
It is my understanding that the major Utilities providing electricity to S.C. (Dominion Energy and Santee-Cooper) are planning to build a major natural gas fueled power plant at the site of the old Canadys Coal Plant, near Walterboro. I posted my thoughts on this on LinkedIn, here. Also, Thomas Shepstone created a Blog post on substack based on my LI post, entitled, “”A Balanced Energy Portfolio is Critical but South Carolina Doesn’t Seem Get It” . It is here. Thank you Tom!
Since this article was first published, announcements of new Data Centers and increasing EV charging has caused alarm that more generating capacity will be required than what was thought a year or two ago. Imagine that, when policies to “Electrify Everything” are applied, electricity Demand grows…..(23, 25 )
This is an update on my comments to the IRP development for my local Regional Utility, Santee-Cooper. The last draft IRP has been published for comment and the figure below shows the expected load growth up to 2042. This Figure is from page 28 of the IRP presentation updated in April 2023. Shockingly, there is serious planning to shut down all coal plants by 2034 without having a Balanced Portfolio of replacement Bulk Power Supply that is Dispatchable, affordable and of reliable supply. Some energy news/issues authors, when discussing energy policy, speak metaphorically of “Falling off the Cliff” The illustration of projected load growth for Santee-Cooper is an example of planning to “Fall off the Cliff” by (NOT) Balancing Bulk Power Supply & load Demand. (The graph reminds me of the old saying, “Failing to Plan is a Plan for Failure”. How? By not providing adequate new generation capacity as older, reliable, dependable and Dispatchable coal units are retired. This is typical all across the U.S. and the western free world(6,10,14,15,15,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,27)
I had hoped that the more conservative, level headed General Assembly of S.C. would have better sense than to follow the “Woke policy” of the U.S. government and other states. There is still time to wake up to reality. (5,8)
The slide below is from my ENERUM presentation, August 2022. Data and chart are from the July 2022 NERC Report.(10) This shows 102 GW of Dispatchable & Reliable coal and nuclear plants shut down since 2011. This is shown to illustrate the fact that Santee-Cooper seems to be following the same destructive path as other utilities in the U.S.
Can a Great 80+ Year Record of Reliability and Affordability be Sustained While Retiring Coal Plants? Is S.C. Self Sabotaging our Great Record of Reasonable Cost, Reliable Bulk Power Supply? Why? Can the Legislature Stop the Madness?
It is my understanding, that the management of Santee-Cooper has been directed to formulate a plan to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050. Anyone that knows me, knows that I do not agree with this plan and my posts on this blog and my public presentations have clearly shown my analysis of the madness of Net Zero Carbon & the War on Coal. I have written letters to Santee-Cooper, the Governor, Congressional representatives and my S.C. Senator. Most of these have been made public. Myself and others that have knowledge of energy and electricity generation know that the path to Net Zero carbon is not possible by 2050.(4,5,6,7,8)Not without severe disruption of our way of life, our economy, industrial output, controlling inflation and national security. It is important for our state to generate electricity reliably, with high quality frequency and voltage control, from Dispatchable generators to meet customer Demand and do this 24/7 affordably under all weather conditions…..This has been done by Santee-Cooper for almost 90 years. Thanks to the reliability of coal, nuclear, natural gas generation and hydro-electric. Why would the Legislature force this fine Utility to sabotage its great record? The chart below is from the 2020 IRP. This lists the Dispatchable, Reliable, Affordable generating assets that have created and continue to provide a great record. In essence, the apparent path of the IRP update is to replace 61% of the reliable coal generation with “Intermittent” solar and wind generation.
Path to Jeopardizing S.C. Bulk Power Affordability, Reliability and Dispatchability
The S.C. Legislature has directed Santee-Cooper through “Act 90” to meet a net zero carbon goal by 2050.
The slide above is copied from the Santee-Cooper IRP presentation. My understanding is, that this is the direction ordered by the legislature. A plan to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050. (22)
There is active planning to not only shut down the 1,150 MW Winyah coal plant in 2028 but also to shut down the 2,350 MW Cross Coal plant about five years later so that in 2034 all coal plants will be shut down. This is shown on the slides below. Shutting down all coal plants by 2034, in my opinion, will jeopardize the very favorable record of reasonable cost, reliable and Dispatchable electricity Bulk Power Supply that has become associated with Santee-Cooper’s great reputation. Even more importantly, South Carolina’s excellent record of attracting and keeping a thriving industrial base within this region. Electricity intensive industries such as aluminum and steel manufacturers/Recyclers have thrived here as manufacturers in other states have ended operations and ceded U.S. manufactured steel and aluminum capacity to China.
Let me digress and quote Vaclav Smil’s statement on decarbonization. From Professor Smil’s book, “How the World Really Works” This applies to S.C. Too!
“The real wrench in the works: we are a fossil-fueled civilization whose technical and scientific advances, quality of life, and prosperity rest on the combustion of huge quantities of fossil carbon, and we cannot simply walk away from this critical determinant of our fortunes in a few decades, never mind years. Complete decarbonization of the global economy by 2050 is now conceivable only at the cost of unthinkable global economic retreat, or as a result of extraordinarily rapid transformations relying on near-miraculous technical advances.” Smil continues….
But who is going, willingly, to engineer decarbonization while we are still lacking any convincing, practical, affordable global strategy and technical means to pursue the latter? What will actually happen? The gap between wishful thinking and reality is vast, but in a democratic society no contest of ideas and proposals can proceed in rational ways without all sides sharing at least a modicum of relevant information about the real world, rather than trotting out their biases and advancing claims disconnected from physical possibilities.”
I have written other posts on this Blog to express my thoughts on competition with China and the importance for America to reshore U.S. manufacturing. This my friends, is in our backyard, our neighborhood, our state. This is a fact as stated above10). Premature retirements of reliable coal plants has been occurring at an alarming rate all across the U.S. Do we have to follow the same foolish self sabotaging policies of NY, Hawaii, Germany, the UK and Texas? I hope not. (12,13,14,15,)
Future Bulk Power Generation Capacity, The Apparent Plan to Self Sabotage Reliable Bulk Power Supply
Expected Outcome of Adding Over 4,250 MW of Non Dispatchable, Intermittent Bulk Power Supply
If all of the coal plants are retired and the portfolio shown above is used. Her are my predictions, based on the experiences of Hawaii, California, Texas, Germany, Denmark and the UK.
California is thought by some in government to be a model for the U.S. with regard to renewable energy policy. I do not agree. Here is a recent post by the CEO of the Electric Power Research Institute on how the California electric load (as reported by CAISO) has morphed from a “Duck Curve to a Canyon Curve”. Here is a screenshot of Dr. Mansoor’s post:
The “Canyon” curve represents high renewable generation during the peak sunshine of the day where California has bragging rights to sourcing almost all of their electricity from solar collectors. This is great until folks come home from work, mom starts dinner in her totally electric home and Dad plugs in his EV for charging. By early evening, electricity demand skyrockets out of the Canyon and must, for the sake of reliability, be generated to meet demand from Dispatchable sources.
Battery storage is not Bulk Power Supply. Batteries store electricity they do not generate electricity. Batteries are capable, depending on the size of the installation, of providing minutes or hours of backup. The largest battery storage in the U.S. is the Vistra Energy, Moss Landing facility in CA. The CAISO load for April 27 is expected to be about 30,000 MW. Note the largest battery storage facility in the world, Moss Landing, is 1600 MW which is about 5% of the Demand and only capable of providing minutes or hours of stored electricity.
Here is another post from another energy expert on LinkedIn. This graphic shows the electric generation through the day which includes battery storage.
The Moss Landing Storage facility is rated at 400/1600 MW and is capable of storing excess renewable generation for hours so that it can be used as the sun sets and kick in as the “Canyon Curve” and CA power supply and Demand Curves above become reality of demand. Emphasis should be on “Hours” it is not capable of backup during a days long cold severe winter storm, such as NC and SC experienced over Christmas week, 2022. Another example is the 150 MW Battery storage designed for Queensland, Australia and an artists depiction below. This is from an essay reviewing the NY electricity future written on the Blog, Watts Up With That.
Battery storage such as shown above is very costly. For example, the 150 MW facility above is projected to cost $250/kWh. Therefore for 12 hours of storage for 450 MW, the cost would be about $1.35 Billion dollars. Keep in mind, this is for 12 hours storage of only 450 MW of power. Winter storms such as the Christmas 2022 storm lasted longer than 12 hours and even very conservative, steeped in energy expertise Duke Energy, also with a great reputation for reliable electric service, had rolling Blackouts. Ditto for TVA(18,19,20,21,22,23).
When the sun is not shining and the wind not blowing, then the generation must be purchased from neighboring Utilities or generated with Dispatchable natural gas generation. The plan shown above includes 4,316 MW of natural gas generation. This combined with the 322 MW of Summer Unit #1 nuclear power totals 4,638 MW. The wind generators, though intermittent, could generate another 400 MW to total 5,038 MW. The projections of up to 9,000 MW Demand in 2050 (according to Santee-Cooper projections) then will require additional Dispatchable generation which is likely to be natural gas CT’s or Combined Cycle facilities. Think for example of the uncertain growth of Electric Vehicles. If much of transportation is “Electrified”, then the high range projections of about 9,000 MW peaks can be expected in 2050 or before. So, why would we kill the coal plants that have served South Carolinians so well?
This reminds me of my experiences working for CP&L in the 1970’s when the manager of Fossil Plant Engineering pointed to an oil fueled CT and proclaimed to me, then a young engineer, “That young man is a monument to poor planning”. Yes, as CP&L (That was before CP&L merged with Florida Progress and was later absorbed by Duke Energy). I see history repeating here as so much faith in renewables today is somewhat like the high expectations of nuclear being “Too Cheap to Meter” beliefs of the 1970’s. However, nuclear power eventually delivered. Wind and solar are not capable of replacing coal, nuclear and gas fueled Bulk Power Generation. In the 1970’s the Bulk Power Supply gaps were made up with quickly installed, oil fueled CT’s. Today, thanks to reliable, affordable natural gas, the backup generation, when solar and wind cannot deliver, is gas fueled CT’s or Combined Cycle plants. This is doable and satisfactory… providing that pipelines are of adequate capacity and natural gas remains affordable and Federal Regulations on drilling, Hydraulic Fracturing, pipelines and fuel supply infra-structure is expanded as needed, when it is needed. The Federal Government is wrong on their war on carbon and the natural gas resources just may not be as abundant in 2040 or 2050 as they are now. Because, the Federal Government currently highly regulates exploration, drilling, production and transport of any fossil fuels. The uncertainty of future primary energy supply is why a Balanced Generation Portfolio is important. A Balanced Energy Portfolio will include nuclear, coal, gas and renewables.
Have the Importance of Reserves Been Forgotten?
Santee-Cooper is a Regional Utility. In other states, such as PA, OH, WVA, NJ & DE many utilities the size of Santee-Cooper have joined RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) such as the PJM Interconnection. In the Midwest it is MISO (Midwestern Independent System Operator) With RTO’s, the electricity generation is shared across state lines and with different utilities with separation of the ownership of the generating plants and the transmission and distribution of the Bulk Power. This has eliminated accountability for individual utilities such as Philadelphia Electric, Potomac Electric Power Company, Public Service of NJ, PP&L and others to plan for Reserve Generation capacity. Therefore, there is no accountability for lack of reserves. I presented examples in my ENERUM talk slides(6) . There is some talk of Santee-Cooper joining a similar RTO with the Southeast Electric Exchange. In my strong opinion and based on the references listed below and my experiences, Santee-Cooper should plan for their own (Our own) reserves. Reserve generation from others states was depended on Christmas week 2022 by TVA and Duke Energy. Two fine utilities, also with great records from the past. But, the reserves from neighboring states were not available due to Demand exceeding supply. Reserves of 15-20% have always been important for reliability and to keep generation costs reasonable by not requiring the startup of backup power generation using high cost fuels such as Diesel or spot market gas. Donn Dears has written several books on this. Here is a graph from the book, “Clean Energy Crisis”, on the Reserve generation that was planned in 2018. However, Texas Blackouts in 2021 killed over 200 people. The ERCOT planners in 2018 had performed due diligence as Santee-Cooper is doing now with well respected consulting services to perform computer analyses of planned reserve margins. Do we need to learn the hard way as Texans did in 2021?
Facts to be Consider regarding Electricity and South Carolina’s High Quality of Life
The experiences of other states and other countries should be considered. I cited the examples of California, Texas and Hawaii above. Much analysis has been put into the planning by some very smart engineers and planners. However, computer modeling of the “Future” weather, fuel prices, EV use, population growth, industrial growth and other uncertainties, will likely create a need for other sources than wind and solar renewables. Just as Texas learned in 2021 after performing similar planning.
Primary Energy and Secondary Energy
Each S.C. resident on average uses about 300 million Btus per year in Primary Energy. If the trend to “Electrify Everything” continues, then more of the energy use currently provided at reasonble prices for transportation and our high quality of life, will be substituted for by (Secondary Energy) electricity or hydrogen. Such as more EV’s as the government is forcing us to use. Therefore, the growth of electricity demand may be much greater than expected. Thus, my title which relates to potential 9,000 MW Demand in 2050.
Over 50% of South Carolina’s electricity has been provided by nuclear power for decades. SC is rated as #3 in the nation in nuclear power generation. Nuclear power has served SC citizens and industry well. Safe, affordable, Base load capable at 90+% capacity factor and proven. However, the great record and importance of nuclear is not discussed by politicians or even utilities. For example, Palmetto Electric promotes the use of “Green Power” when in fact, it is a small contributor to the total portfolio of power generation. Here is an example of “Green indoctrination” by a bill insert that misleadingly leads citizens to believe that most of their power is from renewables:
The reality of our future electricity generation is that nuclear is the most important and least carbon intensive fuel for electricity generation. The plan to expand the Summer nuclear plant with two additional units was a very good idea. However, it was not to be because of poor management, limited trained talent and failure by Bankruptcy of Westinghouse, the primary contractor. The planned new Pee Dee coal plant near Florence was also a good idea and provided for natural growth of generating capacity to meet Demand. Pee Dee, (600 MW coal plant) in my understanding, was killed because of outside influence of Environmental Extremists. Had the Summer Units 2 & 3 and the 600 MW Pee Dee Clean Coal Plant been built as planned, then together these three units would have provided 2,800 MW of Base Load plus reliable, affordable and clean, Dispatchable Bulk Power. Including some reserve generation capacity.
Is the Great State of South Carolina going to sabotage our future just because other countries and states are doing so? I hope not.
Conclusions
The“War on Carbon” is based on politics and corrupted science. It is about Socialism and not about protecting the environment. The South Carolina Legislature seems to be just as gullible of the green myth as the current Federal government leaders.
The UN-IPCC is also Politically Driven and Not based on protection of the environment or to provide for the best interests of the people of the world. The Paris Climate Agreement is not in the best interests of America, the free western world or even for protection of the environment. It is politically motivated.
The path to Net Zero Carbon is steadily weakening our country. It will eventually destroy America’s productive capacity, lower our standard of living and place national security at risk. It will hasten the decline of America and the Rise of China.
America requires 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year to sustain our quality of life. This is about 300 million BTUs per person, per year. Currently, after decades of subsidies, wind and solar provide about 5% of the total PRIMARY energy we use. Wind and solar cannot replace the other 95% of energy we need.
A Balanced Portfolio of Generating Capacity as is currently installed at Santee-Cooper generating plants, is the best path forward to sustain our high quality of life and economic prosperity. Reserve generation from dynamic generators is needed. Battery backup does not provide the same system voltage and frequency control as spinning reserve generator rotors do.
Electric generation planning in the 1970’s and 1980’s was better than today. There is no Energy Policy in America, there is only a decarbonization plan(4,5,6,7), there is no well thought out plan to replace the reliable and dispatchable generating capacity that is being shut down across the country. As during the 1970’s when nuclear units were late coming into service, the quickest available generating capacity was to install gas turbines. This is likely here in SC if the coal plants are retired before Dispatchable or Base Load replacement generation is installed.
Recommendations
Initiate a comprehensive Energy and Electricity Education program to provide 1. public education on energy, 2. Public School education on energy and electricity generation and 3. Public Technical/Trade School education to prepare youth for the construction workforce. Energy Education is recommendation #1 of the path forward. Public education is needed to reverse the myth that wind and solar can replace coal, gas and nuclear power generation. This is priority #1 because so many people are “Green Energy” indoctrinated.
Plan and continue to provide adequate Operations and maintenance funds for repairs and component replacements of the boilers, pumps, turbines and all of the equipment installed at the Cross Coal Plant. Keep the full 2,350 MW capacity so that it can be used until replacement generation is built and proven.
Construct the two unit 1,200 MW Pee Dee Coal plant that the components were purchased for in 2009, but never constructed.
Plan and begin construction on at least 2,000 MW of nuclear capacity. (as was planned for the Summer Units 2 & 3). Please re-read recommendation #1 above.
Plan and construct at least 1,750 MW of combined cycle gas plants
The coal, nuclear and gas plants 2,3 & 4 could replace the existing Cross coal plant capacity, thus continuing a “Balanced Generation Portfolio”
Summary
South Carolina can be an example of applied Common Sense Energy policies that can be a model for the U.S.A. and for the world. The current reasonable cost electricity in SC is amongst the lowest cost in the nation. Over 50% is generated from 4 nuclear plants with seven units. Four of these 7 nuclear units started up in the 1970’s. These four units operating licenses will expire in the 2030’s. They may be extended for another 20 or 30 years by the NRC but, plans should be made to construct new nuclear units for replacement of carbon free, Dispatchable, reasonable cost electricity.
Every time I present a course on energy and electricity generation the comments come back, “You did not discuss Climate Change and Decarbonization”. My response is, I am not an atmospheric scientist. I am an experienced power engineer. My beef with the current path toward Net Zero Carbon is, there is not an organized plan to replace the vitally important electric generation that has kept our country strong. If the politicians were really serious about reducing carbon dioxide emissions and “Sustaining” our high quality of living, then nuclear plants would be on a fast track to construction. After the Summer 2 & 3 failure, SC politicians are rightfully concerned about the financial risks. Plant Vogtle in GA is an example of a major budget overrun. Last cost estimate that I saw shows that Vogtle will cost $34 Billion and the original planned cost was less than half the ultimate cost. Also, it took ten years to just get one of the units running.
In my opinion and research, I feel the war on carbon is a plan initiated by the U.N. (including competitors/enemies of the U.S.A.) and Socialists that have an agenda other than clean power generation. If we wish to “Sustain our high quality of life“, then we need a reasonable cost, abundant and reliable electricity supply. Nuclear is the most accepted approach to achieving that goal. Three examples of applying a Balanced Energy Portfolio with a high percentage of nuclear are S.C. (1970-2030), Sweden and Finland. For research into why I believe the “War on Carbon” is political, not environmentally driven, I have included dozens of references below. My concern for Santee-Cooper and for America is to keep our Bulk Power Supply safe, secure, reliable and affordable. Also, sourced from a U.S. Supply-Chain.
The Supply-Chain of all of the future generation equipment, in an ideal scenario, would be from U.S. sources. Including manufacturing and construction talent. The workforce education is a weakness that I believe had part in the $9 Billion dollar Summer 2 & 3 construction debacle. We should learn from the past 50 years of electric generating history. The successes and the failures.
Respectfully submitted,
Dick Storm
References: (there are two sets of references below, SC Specific are second set)
Arshad Mansoor, CEO of EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) LinkedIn post, April 25, 2023 on the CAISO System. EPRI Post on the CAISO “Duck Curve changed to Canyon Curve” of Electric Load: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7056612841755181056-SCPK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
In My opinion and research, the Path to Net Zero Carbon is Based on Corrupted Science and Political Ploys to Promote Socialism and One World Government, Not to Save the Planet or to Improve the Environment. Therefore, to substantiate this claim the following references are provided:
Elections have consequences and American voters can take a lesson from history. A case study of “Good Consequences” are chronicled in the recently published book, “The Peacemaker” which records the Presidency of Ronald Reagan. When Reagan took office in 1980 America was in decline both domestically and by world respect, the “Misery Index” (Unemployment+Seasonally adjusted Inflation Rate) was 19.23. During the Carter administration the Misery Index hit a high of 21.98. Energy was a huge issue then as it is now. More on Reagan and his accomplishments as President later.
Election year voter preferences have me worried. Why? because as I view the issues, the Biden and Congressional Democrats are simply on a path to Destroy America as we have come to know and enjoy it. Many voters seem to be influenced by social issues and the personality of politicians. The purpose of this commentary is to highlight the importance ofthe realIssues that Matter.
These 14 issues are what I think are the most important to keep America Great. Not social matters, the true issues that are vitally important for good results.
Issues That Matter
First and the most important issue on this list: Election Integrity. Election results must be 99%+ reliable (1)
Restore the nuclear family and Judeo-Christian family morality, work ethic and values.
Secure the border.
Restore confidence in Law and Order, support the Police and the American Judicial system
Restore a strong Military and encourage “Peace through Strength”
Reject the Paris Climate Agreement. President Trump did it before, and we need it again. Biden’s so called “Climate Policies” are destroying America and they are not about environmental protection or pollution. Climate Policies are a path to Socialism and one world government, . Not about Public Health or Protecting the environment. Climate Policies of the Biden Administration are un-American and a gift to those countries that hate the U.S.
Increase American energy production of all forms including nuclear, oil, gas and coal. Energy=Life as we enjoy it.
Reshore manufacturing back to the U.S. Especially primary metals, Pharmaceuticals, autos, most important raw materials and minerals
Reduce the size and influence of government
Reduce government Regulations and reign in the EPA, DOJ, BLM and other out of control “Deep State/Swamp Alphabet Soup agencies.
Unite the citizens. Ronald Reagan and Eisenhower are tough acts to follow, but they did it. So can President Trump!
Stop the decline of America and create a vision of optimism to make America Greater than ever.
Improve Public Education to get back to the fundamentals of teaching young people important life skills beginning with Reading, Writing, Math and General Science. Eliminate the foolish social engineering.
Renew American leadership in the world and defeat “Wokism”
So, What Would Reagan Do?
In Reagan’s time, America had just suffered through several Oil Embargoes the Iranian Hostage crisis and tensions of the Cold War.
America’s respect by the world was at a low point. Reagan had a difficult task ahead of him in 1980, but his success is well documented, factual and respected. I remember the years of 18% Home Mortgage rates, the hidden tax of high inflation, Utilities postponing dividends, gas lines, the Iranian hostage situation, rebuilding our military and more. The eight years of President Reagan’s leadership renewed America . In my opinion, his principled and Godly leadership saved America. Elections matter. So do the issues of the candidates. Another point made in the Peacemaker was that Reagan’s task was hard and that he had many challenges that had to be overcome. Challenges from his own staff, Congress and leaders of the world. In spite of these, he kept his Faith and focus. As the saying goes, it is all history now. The big question is. Can Donald Trump repeat such an effective and results oriented Presidency to reverse the decline after four years of Biden policies? I believe he can.
Politicians like to say, “The Best years for America Lie Ahead of Us”. In my opinion, yes the years ahead can be much better. However, I am concerned for the future of America if Democrats keep control of the Whitehouse and Congress. Return of the “Misery Index” is a minor concern when all of the hot spots of this dangerous world are considered, including Israel, Ukraine, China, Russia, Taiwan and terrorists. The current, government top priority of “Climate Policies” are in fact, destroying our country.
I used to think Democrats were simply ignorant on the knowledge of energy and electricity generation. Truly, most are trained in Political Science or are Lawyers, but they have thousands of trained engineers and energy experts that they could consult. Climate Scientists too. Therefore, it is my conclusion that, most Democrat politicians are deliberately weakening America (the only (D) I know that went slightly against the other (D’s) was Joe Manchin (D-WVA). Why would they push destructive policies such as open borders to allow criminals and illegal immigrants to enter our country and then giving criminals priority over U.S. Citizens? Reducing funding and support for Police, weakening law and order, weakening the military, having men compete in women’s sports, killing babies and killing the fuels that power our economy, killing the American auto industry, making food production more costly and rejecting the high quality of life we have enjoyed, Why? Unless they (or those who are influencing them) are intentionally trying to divide and weaken our country?
Are Biden and Congress Influenced by Foreign Pressures?
The Washington Examiner Magazine in the April 23 issue cover story relates to foreign influence of elections, anti-semitism protests and more. The cover art depicts voters controlled by the CCP. I recommend reading the Washington Examiner if you are interested in the depth of subversion within our country, read Tom Rogan’s article on page 20, also references below. (18, 19, 20, 21) Have you wondered about the anti-Israel Pro-HAMAS protests at Colleges and major road and bridge closures recently? Wonder how they just pop up at the same time? Flags and banners supporting mass murderer HAMAS and even ISIS appear across the country. Crowds are raised and anti-American speeches are delivered. This is not a good omen for election integrity in November.
Credit the Washington Examiner cover, April 23, 2024 edition
Living the American Dream
I was born during WWII and America has grown and prospered over these last 80 years of my life. I grew up in a working class family of modest income and thanks to the gift from God of good health and a strong work ethic, prevailing American freedom, values and liberty, I was able, through study, hard work, marrying a wonderful supportive wife that put up with the sacrifices of my working long hours, travel and moving my family around the country. Ultimately started my own company and we enjoyed an above average income with the earned advantages and privileges that go along with being a business owner.
I lived the American Dream and it is my Prayer and hope that my grandchildren and all of the young people in America will be able to do the same.
Some of the accomplishments of my generation come to mind. There are many great leaders that made these possible, starting with one of my favorite Presidents, Eisenhower, who was also Reagan’s mentor. My contribution to the accomplishments listed below was a very humble and small one, but the list is fact and history. These are some of what has made America Great during the last 80 years! The policies of the Democrats is Hell bent on weakening or destroying much of what was built during my lifetime.
Examples of American Greatness during the last 80 Years
The U.S. Navy secured and made ocean transport safe all around the globe to drastically reduce International Ocean shipping costs. This provided the economic advantage to Developing countries, including China
AT&T and Western Electric pioneered advanced submerged cable design and construction that even today provide pathways for over 90% of International electronic data transfer. There is a reason the U.S. is country code #1
President Eisenhower and Admiral Rickover pioneered the use of nuclear power for clean power generation through Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” initiative, spreading clean, safe nuclear power generation around the world with the partnering of great American companies such as B&W, Westinghouse, Combustion Engineering, Foster-Wheeler and General Electric
America, Proudly a Nation of Christians (7)
America was the world’s largest manufacturer of autos, appliances and electronics
America was the world’s largest producer of steel, aluminum and copper
General Motors was the largest automobile manufacturer in the world and in the 1950’s it was accepted that “What Is good for General Motors Is Good for the Country and vice versa” (2)
Babcock and Wilcox and Combustion Engineering pioneered supercritical and ultra supercritical steam generators for electric power generation
Boeing jet airliners were the best in the world
NASA was started and within President Kennedy’s Goal of ten years put a man on the moon
Public Schools practiced morning prayer and recognized two sexes, male and female
President Reagan and his “Peace Through Strength” policies succeeded in overcoming weakness of the preceding Presidential term. Reagan’s leadership restored America as the strongest nation in the world
America’s economy became the largest in the world and the U.S. Dollar, the medium of exchange for trade in the world.
General Electric, under the leadership of Jack Welsh became the strongest and best manufacturer of power plant electric generation equipment, advanced medical equipment and aircraft engines
Our Electric Grid became the most reliable in the world and electricity prices amongst the lowest in the world
American energy production and cost remained reasonable and we made great advances after the Oil Embargoes of 1973, 1974 and 1978
America became energy independent in 2019
Biden and Democrat Policies are Destroying America and Must be Stopped!
Climate Policies and the War on Conventional Fuels, Internal Combustion Engines and more that me and the American majority have grown to depend on and love.
Open Borders for terrorists and people who wish to do harm to America and American citizens
Weakening Election Integrity
Dividing the citizens of our country with codified policies to destroy women’s sports, create new sexes, DEI, SEC rules to harm business and industry and more
Pushing Social Policies that are insanely wrong and divisive. Check the Washington Examiner articles on foreign influence, Tik-Tock and more
Weakened support for our Military and weakened Department of Defense resources. The Biden top priority of “Climate Policies” is a path to weaken everything about America.
Weakened support of our Police and law and order
Out of control spending on Federal programs that cause inflation. Inflation is a “hidden Tax” on American citizens.
Crushing Regulations across all government “Alphabet Soup” agencies; EPA, OSHA, BLM, IRS, SEC, etc are all at war with the citizens, small businesses and productive American industries
Declaring war on internal combustion engines, gas stoves and more consumer products that Americans have grown to love
Support of criminals and illegal immigrants over tax paying U.S. citizens
Sacrificing U.S. Sovereignty to U.N. and WHO
Weak support of our Allies, especially Israel and a decline of world respect, similar to that faced by Reagan in 1980
By their policies, they show their hate for Mining and manufacturing in U.S.A.
And much more Totalitarian control over our lives
Election Interference
The inspiration to write this commentary was the News Media reporting of various polls of “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”. President Trump and Biden are right at 50-50. In my view, if the status of the truly important concerns in America were compared to when Trump left office in 2020, and if all of the factors that keep America strong were considered, then the polls should be about 99% for Trump. The Pew poll graphic from 2023 is shown below. It hasn’t changed much. Trump and Biden are still within a few points of the same support.
Why would nearly half of the voters plan to vote for Biden? I am not trained in political science, but here are three demographic and social issues that, in my perception, have influenced half of the voters.
The first is the issue of abortion and a woman’s right to choose. Abortion has killed over 63 million babies since 1973 but stated as a “women’s right to choose” it does not sound so evil and many women are influenced by this single issue.
The second most influential factor is, the top 50% wage earners in America pay 97.7% of the Federal taxes. The bottom 50% pay the remaining 2.3%. So, almost half of the population gets more from government than they pay out in taxes.
The third demographic reality is that over 50% of the voters live in large cities. The cities, even in Conservative states like SC, tend to be controlled by the Democrat Party and historically have practiced voting irregularities and shenanigans. (1) Take a look at the U.S.A. map by counties of Red and Blue voting. The entire U.S.A. is mostly Red, except for the cities which have perpetual problems in election integrity.
America is approaching a Totalitarian and Dictatorial government elected by people who either are dependent on government handouts or are influenced by social issues. This is in my opinion to reason why so many are poised to vote for leaders that will destroy our country.
Conclusion and Summary
It is my hope that voters will do research and that the Republican Party will educate more citizens on the importance of the real issues that matter.
Let me close with several quotes of Ronald Reagan on his views on the importance of keeping America strong and great. The first is from Reagan’s farewell, Jan. 11, 1989:
“And that’s about all I have to say tonight, except for one thing. The past few days when I’ve been at that window upstairs, I’ve thought a bit of the ``shining city upon a hill.” The phrase comes from John Winthrop, who wrote it to describe the America he imagined. What he imagined was important because he was an early Pilgrim, an early freedom man. He journeyed here on what today we’d call a little wooden boat; and like the other Pilgrims, he was looking for a home that would be free.
I’ve spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don’t know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. But in my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That’s how I saw it, and see it still.
And how stands the city on this winter night? More prosperous, more secure, and happier than it was 8 years ago. But more than that: After 200 years, two centuries, she still stands strong and true on the granite ridge, and her glow has held steady no matter what storm. And she’s still a beacon, still a magnet for all who must have freedom, for all the pilgrims from all the lost places who are hurtling through the darkness, toward home.
We’ve done our part. And as I walk off into the city streets, a final word to the men and women of the Reagan revolution, the men and women across America who for 8 years did the work that brought America back. My friends: We did it. We weren’t just marking time. We made a difference. We made the city stronger, we made the city freer, and we left her in good hands. All in all, not bad, not bad at all.”
The issues matter and President Reagan showed how to make them work for the best interests of our country.
Two more from the wisdom of Ronald Reagan….
“Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.”-1961
and
“If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth. And this idea that government is beholden to the people, that it has no other source of power except to sovereign people, is still the newest and most unique idea in all the long history of man’s relation to man. This is the issue of this election. Whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the American revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capital can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves.” – 1964
President Donald Trump also applied policies that renewed America during his term. It is my hope and prayer that starting in 2025, policies will be in place to return America to greatness. Ronald Reagan proved that America can be saved from decline.
In Part 2, I will cover some of the NGO’s, individuals, foreign influence and other factors, besides the U.S.-DOJ that are in fact, actively participating in election interference. The November 2024 election may be our last chance to save America and there are many forces, organizations and government officials that are influencing voters by effective use of smear politics and Un-American (Woke) social/Cultural indoctrination. These are very real factors. Some of the influence is from foreign sources. (18, 19, 20, 21)
Ken Haapala is President of the organization, “Science and Environmental Policy Project. Ken has been publishing TWTW (The Week That Was) Newsletter since the 1990’s. His informative Newsletters can be found here. This week, Mr. Haapala’s quote of the week is apropos for the importance of energy in our lives.
“The cavemen had the same natural resources at their disposal as we have today, and the difference between their standard of living and ours is a difference between the knowledge they could bring to bear on those resources and the knowledge used today…..”
Thomas Sowell
I would continue from Sowell’s quote….
To produce sufficient energy that drives our economy, industry and nearly every comfort and convenience that we have come to enjoy since muscle power provided most of the energy for farming and transportation only 125 years ago….
The path to Net-Zero carbon is a path to Socialism, decarbonizing electricity and transportation energy will not improve human health or improve air quality. The so-called transition to reduced carbon dioxide production (aka Net-Zero or IRA) is disconnected from reality and there is no plan to keep an adequate energy supply for sustaining our current life styles, industrial production, freedom of travel and economic prosperity. The current government policies are Anti-American. The Institute for Energy Research has chronicled 200 actions by the Biden Administration which make it harder to produce oil and gas. Link here. Expansion of the government Regulations that are a large part of the “War on Coal” are detailed by Paul Driessen and PA Pundits, “Congress And The Courts Enable Climate And Energy Fantasies And Government Expansion” Here. Coal power restrictions and the likely electricity Blackouts in the future is chronicled by America’s Power, Here. Also, the author’s presentation to the ENERUM Energy Forum, stating “There is NO Energy Policy, only a policy of Decarbonization”, August 2022, Here. More recently, my takeaways of my PowerGen Panel discussion, here.
I used to think the Democrats and Swamp Bureaucrats in government were trained in, “Political Science”, and not real technical engineering science. At one time I thought they just did not understand the technical details of energy and electricity generation and were naive. However, the fact is, there are enough smart, technically trained engineers in the Bureaucracy (14,000 in the DOE & NETL plus 95,000 contractors and 18,000 in the EPA. with an almost $10 Billion Budget) Biden has the engineering talent resources to have become informed if he chose too. The Department of Energy, NETL, EPA, DOD all employ thousands of engineers. Now after observing the energy and electricity policies of the last three years of the Biden Administration I am of the strong opinion that the weakening of America through the “CCP Trojan Horse” Climate Policies…are in fact, all intentional. Many references are provided to support this conclusion in this and previous articles I have written. Links to these articles are provided below.
Eliminating or attempting to eliminate hydrocarbons from use in America is a movement toward de-growth, de-industrialization, food shortages, more inflation and restrictions on our freedoms. Simply stated: Over Regulated & Restrictive Big Government Socialism.
Net-Zero carbon is a path of the politicians to wield even more control over our lives. It is a political movement by unelected NGO’s to influence government officials. The “Swamp Bureaucrats” are out of touch with Reality and the current “Green New Deal” Climate Policies, are codified as the (mis-named) “Inflation Reduction Act“. This sadly, is the result of years of very well organized scare tactics and court actions intended to instill fear and used effectively to demonize the fuels that our society depends on. The war on carbon is not based on science. Net-Zero Carbon is a path to weaken the people of the free western world. This began with the Presidency of Bill Clinton and the ramping up of New Source Review lawsuits and then was further expanded by the revolving door of employment of radical extremists into high government positions during the Obama Administration. An informative report by the 114th Congress is here. My take on the beginning of the War on Carbon is here. My thoughts on the major U.S. Energy policy influencers, here.
Depending on 100% carbon free fuels (and continuing our high quality of life) by 2050 is delusional and impossible!
I have written much on the origins of the war on carbon and the destructive path of prematurely shutting down coal plants for reliable electricity generation. An Energy Forum presentation and three previous articles are here , here and here. In this article I will attempt to consolidate previous thoughts into one to discuss reality. Also a realistic approach to reducing carbon emissions while keeping America’s productive capacity and economy energized.
Energy is the Economy & Energy is the Sustainer of Our High Quality of Life.
We must be realistic about how fast we can reduce carbon emissions without destroying America as we know and love it. Energy powers life as we have come to enjoy it. Each American uses between 830,000 to 1,000,000 BTUs of energy each day. The energy we need and depend on each day is described in numerous articles, three of these previous articles are here, here and here.This quantity and reliability of energy from conventional sources cannot be replaced with wind and solar. Period. See my previous article on the enormity of the energy we depend on, Here. We have come to depend on this quantity of affordable, reliable energy of which 87% is sourced from gasoline, natural gas, Diesel, coal, Jet fuel and nuclear. The current government path is attempting to abolish fossil fuels which provide over 79% of our energy. The figure above showing 89%+ conventional fuels including nuclear and old hydroelectric plants. I consider these (Nuclear, Gas, Coal, Petroleum and Old Hydroelectric plants) all conventional forms of energy. America will continue to require a minimum of 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy per year and grow to more than 100 Quads with population growth and more application of technology, such as Data Centers and AI. Read more about the increase in electricity growth, here, here and here. These new Data Centers use nearly as much power as aluminum smelting operations. Some over 250 MW each. It will take much more electricity generation to electrify vehicles and power data centers. Data centers today use about 4% of total electricity use. The future of “Electrifying Everything” suggests an increase in electricity use and instantaneous demand, not a decrease.
Reliable Primary Energy and Electricity = Continued and Sustainable High Quality of Life
Energy and affordable/reliable electricity generation is a pre-requisite to sustain our current quality of life and freedom. The sources for this energy beyond 2050, in my opinion, will be from conventional forms of energy: Natural Gas, Nuclear, Coal, Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel and yes, including Coal
Furthermore, Crude oil, natural gas and coal provide the feedstock for production of thousands of products, and including food production. Energy is required for our high quality of life and including all basic essentials. Including Food, Steel, Cement, Plastics, Water Purification, Sewage Treatment and Fertilizer. When energy costs rise, they do in fact contribute to inflation. Why? Because energy is used for everything! From fertilizer for food production to the processing and transportation of ice cream. Primary metals, such as aluminum, copper & steel use enormous quantities of primary energy to produce. Much of that production has been shut down in the U.S. and moved to Asia.
Take aluminum as an example. This is from an article in the WSJ and a presentation I made in 2016. This shows how China climbed from nearly zero aluminum production in the year 2000 to becoming the major producer of over 50% of the world’s aluminum production by 2016. This rise of China’s economy is fueled by energy use. A reminder, it takes about 5 kWh’s of electricity to produce one pound of aluminum. (about 45,000 BTU’s to smelt one pound) This is for just smelting, and it does not include refining of Bauxite to Alumina, transportation or manufacturing energy to produce final products. China uses mostly coal fuel for their aluminum production. The rise of China’s energy and economy is covered by previous articles here and here.
From Dick Storm presentation to the Delaware County Bar Association, July 2016
The IEA report on energy costs impacting food report is here. The production cost component of most grains is about 50% energy related. The small red circles represent the energy cost component of production. Therefore, it is a fact that rising energy costs contribute to inflation.
From IEA Report, How Energy Crisis is Exacerbating the Food Crisis
A Realistic Approach to Electricity Generation with Reduced Carbon Dioxide Emissions
America has led the world in the reduction of the rate of carbon dioxide emissions since 2007. How? Largely due to the substitution of electric power generation using natural gas fuel for power generation. That is, replacing power generation once accomplished with coal fuel, with natural gas powered generation. Natural gas power generation in a modern combined cycle gas turbine plant produces about 50% of the CO2 emissions as produced by coal power generation. The U.S. total carbon dioxide emissions are shown on the chart below. CO2 emissions dropped from a high of about 6,000 million metric tons to about 4,600 million metric tons in 2020. The sharp drop 2019-2020 was due to Covid and shrinking economic activity. However, the reduction in U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide is almost 25%. As the economy recovers CO2 is expected to increase to about 5,000 million metric tons in 2023. This is still a 16 % reduction from 2007. The most effective path to further reductions in total carbon dioxide emissions is to use more nuclear power for power generation. However, due to supply-chain limits and restrictive Federal NRC Regulations, sufficient capacity of new nuclear plants to replace the over 102,000 MW of coal plants shut down since 2012 will take decades. See previous articles here and here.
Just to put the U.S. CO2 Emissions in perspective. Here is a chart from Our World in Data which shows the CO2 emissions of various countries. The U.S. produces about 16% of the world’s CO2 emissions. China produces about 26%. The comparisons of China and U.S. energy and manufacturing was discussed in a previous article.
Carbon dioxide emissions are primarily a matter of hydrocarbon chemistry. Both coal and gas fuels contain carbon and when combusted the products of combustion form CO2 . The creation of CO2 from combustion is impossible to change. Fuels that have fewer carbon atoms, such as methane, create less CO2 than coal. Coal fuel derives most of it’s energy from the combustion of the carbon molecules. Methane derives most of it’s energy from the combustion of the hydrogen molecules. The figure below shows the electric power production 2004 and 2019. The greater use of natural gas is due to the Hydraulic Fracturing Revolution which greatly increased U.S. natural gas production with a consequent reduction is natural gas pricing. Harold Hamm’s book, “Gamechanger” chronicles the Shale Gas Revolution. The increased supply of low cost natural gas kept electricity prices stable until current times.
The electric power generation from natural gas in 2024 is expected to be over 50%. Is This Good?
Why? Because of increased solar and wind generation facilities need to be backed up with reliable, dispatchable Bulk Power generation capacity. Also, reliable coal plants are being prematurely retired and demolished, which I discussed in a previous article here. Therefore natural gas generation has grown rapidly from both the shutdowns of coal plants and the increased CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) plants built to provide power when the wind is not blowing and sun not shining.
Greater dependence on natural gas is good for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, as the U.S. has demonstrated since 2007. See chart below.
However, Dependence on “Just in Time” pipeline supplied natural gas is risky for a reliable electricity supply. Why is it risky? Because if pipelines are compromised whether by extreme weather, mechanical failure, government regulations, or by criminal sabotage, the fuel supply can be interrupted. With no fuel on site storage, a major highly efficient and state of the art, 600 MW CCGT power plant will reach zero power output in minutes when pipeline gas stops. However, Coal and nuclear plants can store sufficient primary energy for months and in the case of nuclear, years of generation. A Balanced generation portfolio of at least 75% Dispatchable nuclear and coal plants is preferred, in my experience.
Slide from Dick Storm USCB-OLLI Course, Energy and Electricity Generation 2021
One of the main reasons the total CO2 emissions of the U.S. dropped since 2007 is largely due to the increased use of natural gas to replace coal for power generation. Good, as long as a reliable gas supply is maintained. As mentioned above, and worth repeating, the U.S. will likely reach 50% + dependency on natural gas fueled power plants for fuel in 2024. I see this as an unbalanced and risky generation portfolio. But, then most of my career was as a coal power generation engineer.
Air Quality has Improved since 1970
The overall trend of improving air quality is shown on the chart from the EPA below. Yes, in 1970, the EPA was needed to clean our air. The six major pollutants of CO, Sulfur, Lead, Ozone, Particulates and Nitrogen Oxides have been drastically reduced to healthy levels, even as population, GDP and vehicle miles driven have increased.
Let’s get back to the fundamental chemistry of natural gas and why natural gas produces less carbon dioxide than coal for the same unit of power generation. Gas power generation produces about half the CO2 of a similar unit of electricity generation from coal. Why? Primarily because natural gas is over 95% methane. The chemical symbol of Methane is CH4 . That is four molecules of hydrogen and one molecule of carbon. This compared to coal which, depending on the coal rank, and on an ash and moisture free basis, derives about 95% of its heating value from carbon. This is the main reason of why and how America has led the world in carbon dioxide reductions since 2012. Substituting coal power generation with natural gas can provide the same primary energy as coal with about 50% of the carbon dioxide emissions, due mostly to the differences of carbon intensity of methane and coal. Another factor in power generation is, that “Combined Cycle Gas Turbine” (CCGT) plants are much more efficient than Rankine Cycle coal fueled steam plants. Modern gas fueled CCGT plants can achieve up to about 65% efficiency, Ultra-supercritical Steam plants up to about 42% efficiency.
Here are examples of coal and methane molecules to illustrate the different carbon intensity of coal and natural gas.
A molecule of methane gas has one central atom of carbon with a molecular weight of 12 surrounded by four atoms of hydrogen, each with a molecular weight of 1.
A coal molecule, by comparison is mostly carbon and derives most of it’s heating value (primary energy) from carbon.
Fundamentals of Energy and Work
America uses right at 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary energy. Previous article here. Each BTU (British Thermal Unit) when converted to work at 100% efficiency is equivalent to 778 Foot Pounds of work and when 3,412.6 BTU’s are converted to electricity at 100% efficiency can generate 1 kWh. Human muscle power/energy is equivalent to about 100 watts. Think about using a hand pushed lawnmower, (if you remember those), and compare to cutting your lawn with a 2 Hp gasoline powered lawnmower with less than a gallon of gas in the tank. More on replacing muscle power, energy and economic prosperity are written on previous articles, here, here,here and here.
Energy and Economic Prosperity
Designing and manufacturing products provides jobs. Manufacturing provides funding for R&D to create new and better products. It is best for America if manufacturing was mostly within our borders. I have written on this before and the quote below is copied from substack, Doomberg(3)
Energy is not an input into the economy, IT IS THE ECONOMY. Humanity organizes its economic activities to ensure a steady growth in the extraction and exploitation of primary energy because energy is life, standards of living are defined by how much energy is available to be exploited, and all humans everywhere are perpetually seeking a higher standard of living.
Primary energy is what powers a modern economy and America needs about 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year. This was described in the series parts 1-4.(50, 51, 52, 53)
So, Where Does the 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary Energy Come From?
Here are the sources of Primary Energy for the U.S. in 2022.
As can be seen conventional fuels of natural gas, petroleum, nuclear and coal provide 87% of the energy we need (more than 89% if old hydroelectric plants are included). Eliminating fossil fuels (79%) will create great harm to our economy. Those of us that were adults in the 1970’s remember the economic pain and disruption of our lives due to the Oil Embargoes. Temporary loss of industrial capacity, jobs, and restrictions on travel and our way of life. The Oil Embargoes of 1973-1980 were temporary and America solved the energy shortages! Now, Forcing Net-Zero Carbon by current government Regulations will be irreversible and permanent. Our politicians could take a look at the impact on the German economy from their attempt to replace coal and nuclear with wind and solar. It has not worked and is well documented. Here are two references, Here and here.
Loss of Supply-Chains are Nearly Irreversible
Once Net-Zero Carbon is imposed, the Domestic supply chains will be lost. Therefore, without a rational transition Net Zero Carbon policies, aka “Inflation Reduction Act or Green New Deal”, will literally plunge us into darkness and despair if we do not wake up to the need to do much more with natural gas, coal and nuclear power to generate the electricity. We must have reliable, affordable and Dispatchable energy and electricity to sustain our lives. More energy to grow and prosper. I wrote and article covering the path of the U.S. nuclear power industry here. Long story short, we mortally wounded the nuclear steam system supply-chain with over-regulations by the NRC and other government decrees.
Summary and Conclusions
Reduction of Federal Regulations should be top priority. The total government Swamp Bureaucracy has been engaged to restrict conventional forms of energy. This must stop.
A rational path forward is to roll back EPA Rules to those in effect in 2012. It is my strong opinion and observation that any rules applied after 2012, especially those overly restrictive on coal plant emissions are simply weaponization of government against coal. Similar restrictive rules by other government agencies have been applied toward the production, refining and transport by pipeline of oil and gas. The Congressional report here, explains why I picked 2012 as a Roll back year..
Replacing much (but not all) of the 100 Quadrillion BTUs of needed energy in America could be done with carbon free nuclear electrification and even including hydrogen production from nuclear generated electric power. However, with current regulations and supply chain limitations, expanding nuclear beyond the current fleet will take decades. In my view nuclear power is a very good approach. As it was in 1954 when the head of the Atomic Energy Commission proclaimed, “Electricity from nuclear will be too cheap to meter”. It took about 30 years to reach 20% of U.S. electricity generation from nuclear. Since then, enormous regulatory roadblocks have been enacted into law that make a repeat 30 year success story very unlikely. So, what do I recommend? I recommend rolling back EPA rules to those in effect in 2012 and building new coal and nuclear plants. Coal and nuclear generation is the foundation of electricity reliability even today when there is extreme weather, especially extremely cold winter periods. So, why not build some more proven coal and nuclear plants to strengthen our energy and electricity reliability and security with a “Balanced Portfolio” of generation?
In closing, let me quote chapter 8 of Donn Dears book, “Clean Energy Crisis“. This is what Mr. Dears calculated that it would take to replace fossil fuels with carbon free power. Build these:
881 new nuclear power plants similar in size to one of Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle Units
BTW it took over ten years to just build two 1,100 MW units at Vogtle
995,141 new 2.5 MW wind turbines
3,919,006 MW of PV of solar power
Read Mr. Dears book. It is only 128 pages including the index, Dears Bio and references. Please also read the other references below. Most importantly, become an energy savvy voter in November. America needs a realistic path forward for energy and electricity production. Thank you for reading this.
“Clean Energy Crisis”, Book by Donn Dears, 2023. An excellently written, short and concise review of the energy crisis we are facing. Available on Amazon: https://ddears.com/2023/01/03/clean-energy-crisis/
The Democrat “Green New Deal” policies to attempt to achieve Net-Zero Carbon will likely create energy and electricity shortages this coming winterand worse yet, contribute to the continuing decline of our country.
Energy: Pre-requisite for Economic Prosperity
In part 1 I discussed the path to prosperity of the U.S. during the last 80 years. America was clearly the strongest country in the world by any measure of industrial production, Intellectual advancement, science, space, aeronautics, respect in the world, the world’s largest economy, the world’s largest manufacturer of products, progress in environmental protection, freedom and ease of travel for the citizens and the building of infrastructure, including the most reliable power generation system in the world. The Grid is described by the Smithsonian Magazine as “The Greatest Machine Ever Built, the North American Power Grid“. Yes, our energy and electricity generation infrastructure was the best in the world. The government Bureaucrats in charge of our country are dismantling and wrecking “The Greatest Machine Ever Built”….plus faceless Bureaucratic Agencies in Washington are weakening the Primary energy supplies that our country, military, industries, economic progress and the sources of primary energy that citizens depend on each day. Wrecking it in plain sight.
Government Especially the Democrat Party is Self- Sabotaging America’s Energy and Electricity Generation Infrastructure
Here is a listing of 100 Executive orders compiled by the American Energy Alliance which are against the best interests of America. The EPA, Dept. of Energy, Dept of Interior, Securities and Exchange Commission and essentially all alphabet soup government agencies are weaponized against fossil fuels as part of Biden’s “War on Carbon” under the heading “Climate Change”. The policies to weaken America and including our military strength are beyond absurd, they are Un-American. Here are four posts on my blog and on LinkedIn that outline who the organizations and people are that are behind the un-American energy policies. Here, here, here and here.(6, 7, 8, 9) Disguised as “Climate Policies” they really have nothing to do with protection of human health or the environment. Then there is Dr. Euan Mearns post on WUWT , “The Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”. Here.
Remember the Oil Embargoes of the 1970’s? What comes next due to Un-American Climate Policies, will likely be Worse
During the time period 1940-2022 America made huge advancements in energy production and electricity generation. These are described in part I. Most of this era was positive growth and advancements until there was an interruption of energy supply. That was in the mid 1970’s , caused by the 1973-74 Oil Embargo. Yes, I know, that is history and a long time ago. The reason I bring it up is because the self sabotaging of American energy and electricity generation policies are likely to create more harm and suffering for the citizens than the two oil embargoes of the 1970’s. For a review of history, let me suggest reading the Federal Reserve and Office of the Historian reports. (3 & 4)
Some of the Expected Consequences of Biden’s Climate Policies
Think about your life and what you do each day, what you depend on. Electricity provides heating and cooling for our home, hot water for your shower in the morning, provides heat to cook breakfast. Then, you turn the ignition on in your car and drive to work. If you work for an industrial manufacturing company it is powered by electricity and probably natural gas. Perhaps you are planning a vacation to fly to a tropical island or ski resort. You get the picture, all of these steps we take each day are dependent on reliable, affordable energy. If you disagree with me thus far then think about the last hurricane or severe storm that killed electric power for a day or more. Think about how the loss of electricity or availability of gasoline creates hardship and changes to your life-style. I am old enough to remember the oil embargoes of the 1970’s. The oil embargoes of 1973, 1974 and 1978 caused financial distress of some of the strongest industries and businesses in our country. In my analysis, the energy crisis that is coming will be worse than what we experienced in the 1970’s. What is so alarming is, that it did not have to come to this. These policies have been implemented by (so-called) public servants and elected officials. Unfortunately the only Science that these energy and climate policy makers understand is Political Science.
Nationally Recognized Experts Weigh In
FERC is an acronym for the “Federal Energy Regulatory Commission”. One of the very respected past commissioners, Mr. Mark Christie has testified before Congress and more recently at a conference in Dallas, TX.
FERC Commissioner Mark Christie likened the current state to that of the Great Depression, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt said the country was facing a rendezvous with destiny.
“We’re at a very critical time … reliability means, ‘Are the lights going to stay on?’ That’s what it means to the general public,” Christie said. “Are the lights going to stay on? We’re really at a point where that’s coming into serious question. Are the lights going to stay on?
“Right now, when it comes to the reliability of our grid, the United States is facing a rendezvous with reality. Reality is just around the corner. You may think you can avoid it for a while, but reality will track you down. And reality is tracking us down when it comes to the reliability of our grid,” he added.
Testifying before the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee in May, Christie told lawmakers the grid is facing “potentially catastrophic consequences.” He said he was not trying to be melodramatic. (See Senators Praise Phillips, FERC’s Output at Oversight Hearing.)
The quote from above is from Mr. Mark Christie. Others besides him have warned of the environmental zealots in the EPA and their war on all fossil fuels. Michelle Bloodworth of America’s Power wrote an excellent article in Real Clear Energy, here. (11)
The EPA is either completely out of control or it is controlled by forces that have nefarious goals for America. Here is an example of my local electricity provider’s forecast of future electricity demand and the generation resources they “Hope” to have after 2030 when they plan to shut down several of the reliable, low cost and Dispatchable coal generating plants. Notice how in 2029 the coal generation assets drop off, yet the Demand projection continues to increase. It is a fair question to ask, why are the coal plants being shut down, if the power is needed? Why were no modern clean coal plants built since 2013? The Democrat Party’s “War on Coal is the reason. Here is an excellent report by the 114th Congress, published in 2015.(12)
Then there is the major investor owned utility to the north and one excerpt from their IRP (Integrated Resource Plan) is similar. It is copied below. Both of these Utilities are planning to shut down major coal generation that has served them and their customers well for, in Duke’s case over 100 years. Notice the figure below, this is an excerpt from the Duke Energy IRP. The coal plants, like Santee-Cooper’s have served Duke very well for many years but because of government policies of Net-Zero Carbon, they plan to shut down much of the coal generation by 2036. Interestingly, it is plainly shown as a “Firm Resource Gap”. That means less generation capacity than what is forecasted as the Demand. This is in plain sight and prepared by engineers and managers that must know better. I am perplexed as to why more managers and engineers do not speak out?
This winter(10, 11) is likely to result in more Blackouts and energy shortages. In my opinion it will be somewhat like the hardships of the 1973 Oil Embargo. This time it is our own President and Bureaucratic agencies that are causing it. Did Mark Levin get it right with his selection of the title of his recent book, “The Democrat Party Hates AMERICA“? Well right now, it looks like Mark Levin is correct, and I came to that same conclusion before his book was published back in 1998 when I first ran into EPA actions of “New Source Review” by the Clinton Administration. My previous blog post in 2021 outlined “The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be”here. (13) The administration of President Jimmy Carter has been criticized for decades. In my life experiences in the power industry, today Jimmy Carter looks like an American Patriot, Energy Expert and a Saint compared to Joe Biden and his administration.
Decline by Design
The influencers of American energy policies have been discussed by me and others. Some recent reports by NERC, FERC & RTO’s warn of unreliable Bulk Power Supplies in the near future. Numerous books and articles by Donn Dears, Judith Curry, the CO2 Coalition, CFACT, Ed Ireland, Robert Bryce, the Washington Examiner and many others have documented “Weaponization of the EPA” and the entire government of the Biden Administration. It is obvious to me that this is not naiveté or foolishness. It has to be intentional. I am angry that Congress has not reigned in the Executive Branch Agencies.
Conclusions
The high quality of life that we have come to enjoy along with a growing stock market, reasonable cost food and much more is at risk. Our future is uncertain because the President and government policy makers are self sabotaging America’s energy and electricity infrastructure.
The general public is not interested in pushing back and has continued to vote for Presidents, Senators and Congressional Representatives that are just as unaware of the importance of energy and electricity generation as their constituents
Public education on Energy and Electricity has failed
“Woke” Businesses and Industries have promoted Green and renewable energy when their leaders must know better but they do it to follow the “Green New Deal” cash flow
Congress has Delegated too Much Power to Federal Agencies and they Refuse to Reign them in. Especially the EPA
Given the Net-Zero Carbon Path that we are on, the Future of America’s Energy and Economic Progress is at Risk. The title of one of Donn Dears Book had it right: “Net-Zero Carbon- The Climate Policy Destroying America” Yes, it is true. The Biden Climate Policies are Destroying America.
I have believed for many years that no one should bet against America and I love America and feel as Patriotic as anyone. However, the Climate policies currently in place has our country on a very uncertain path. Energy that is Reliable, Affordable and Available when we need it is not optional…..Energy is vital to keep our country strong. Why is our government at war with the lifeblood of our country? Why isn’t Congress acting? Why are senior engineers and managers in Electric Utilities not pushing back?
Here is a summary of the people & organizations That have led to the destructive Climate Policies our country is now enduring. The “Climate Policies” are against the best interests of America and are not about saving the planet or protecting the environment. There is no planned transition to renewables(25, 60) and our country will be weakened by the path to Net Zero. The worrisome bottom line is, that no one person or organization is accountable and it will be hard to fix.
The path to correcting the absurd Climate Policies is to improve the energy and environmental science education of the public and elected officials.
It is a very daunting challenge to reverse about 50 years of public indoctrination on the demonization of coal, oil, gas & nuclear.
Dr. Judith Curry recently wrote on her Blog,“How the Disinformation Industrial Complex is Destroying Trust in Science”.(14) In my view, the only science that climate policies are based on is, Political Science.
We should try our best to correct the miseducation/indoctrination/scaring of the public. Somebody should! Here is my shot at identifying the problem. I am reminded of a quote attributed to Ben Franklin, “Identifying the Problem is the First Step in Correcting It” A future post will outline my thoughts on “How to Correct the Indoctrination and Mis-education (on Energy) of the public. Hint, it is a huge challenge that will need billions of dollars in communications funds.
Conventional energy built America and it continues to provide the fuel for our high quality of life, provides transportation, washes our dishes, cleans our clothes, produces and cooks our food, creates products from Industry, powers our National defense, powers our computers, servers and Smart Phones, energizes our economy and more…. Why would thinking people destroy the energy that we depend on? I wrote on the beginnings of the “War on Carbon” in 2021. This is a followup to that post which is here.
Please read on, I will try to explain how the demonization of carbon came to be and it is not naïveté, it is intentional. In fact, it is not hyperbole to say it is evil.(53) If you read all the way through I will connect the dots of the how and who of the movement against conventional forms of energy. The politicians and activist organizations are NOT Stupid as I and many others have once thought. They are very well organized & lavishly funded with billions of dollars. However, they do not care about the future of America and if they have any motive at all, it is that they are against the best interests of the U.S.A. The activists listed below do not appear to be very well educated in science and engineering to include; Physics, Chemistry, Thermodynamics, Electricity or Energy. Please check the references and then you decide.
The Political Science trained incumbent politicians do have access to the best engineering and science minds in America, (if they wanted it) yet they have very effectively set the U.S. on a path of destruction. Why? Because the advice they seek from “Experts” (if they seek any advice?) are from extremists, many of which are employed as Bureaucrats or within NGO organizations with people embedded in government. They appear to be not very savvy on energy and engineering.
In the interest of brevity of this post, at the end, I have included many references for you to refer, let me suggest you start with # 51 to read and judge for yourself.
The references support my conclusions that the elected officials have used energy and environmental advice from extreme activists that know little about energy. Worse yet, they are not interested in the continued strength of the Free Western World.
Environmental Extremists are In Charge
Today the people in charge of energy policy have risen from their College graduations through paths of training and experience in Political Science, Law or Environmental Activism, progression of elected offices or University Teaching. None that I am aware have had any significant power generation technical, business experience or training as power engineers. My previous Blog in the January post listed numerous Climate and Energy Influencers. These influencers of energy policy have no background in energy production or power generation. So, the energy and electricity generation policies that have been forced onto the American citizens and (now struggling) productive industries are not well thought out. The so called “Transition to Renewables” is not a planned process as a group of experienced electric utility planning engineers would methodically produce. That is, if it was even possible to replace fossil fuels and nuclear with solar and wind.
The so called “Climate Policies” are simply a wrongheaded fast track approach to Decarbonize Bulk Power Generation, Transportation and Industry. In essence, “Electrify Everything” and do so without knowing the consequence of sabotaging America’s Energy & Electricity Generation Infrastructure.
Here are some of the key persons responsible for the current “Green New Deal” or so-called “Inflation Reduction Act”, which codifies the green policies.
John Kerry– Special Envoy for Climate . Background: Politician and trained in Political Science. A “Green” Ideologue that has spent his entire career as a politician. His recent speech to the WEF attacked Farmers and food production. Although he travels in luxury via Jet fuel guzzling private jets, he advocates reducing the quality of life of the rest of us, including the amount and type of food that we eat and the fuel used to cook it.
Gina McCarthy, Past EPA Administrator in Obama Administration and past Chief Executive Officer at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) This lady presided over the most effective times of the war on coal by the EPA since 1970. Her employment, like many other top EPA officials cycled back and forth between anti coal NGO’s and government(51,52). Two references are here and here:
Michael Regan–EPA Administrator Past employment head of N.C. Dept of Environmental Quality and was a past employee of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).
Joe Goffman A high level EPA official, I am not sure of his present title. Here is a newspaper op-ed by West Virginia Senator Shelly Moore Capito, in WVA “Intelligencer” Newspaper, July 2022.
Deb Haaland Secretary of Dept of Interior: Past experiences as Gov. of New Mexico. Has advocated policies to reduce access to American energy reserves.
The people and a short resume of each Biden Administration Cabinet member is listed below in references 53-62 thanks to the Capital Research Center’s Robert Stilson. The Congressional representatives that have come to positions of high influence are listed in an article in E& E News, here.
Barrack Obama ramped up the war on carbon during his two terms in office. His appointment of Gina McCarthy as EPA Chief was devastating to coal plants. Weaponization of government agencies by using a revolving door for employment of environmental extremists is documented in a report to Congress here.
Al Gore. His background is well known. His scare mongering claims of the movie “Inconvenient Truth” and other activities have been debunked by real scientists but the MSM loves him and his scare tactics, aided by “Woke” Entertainment and the Mainstream Media have out-shouted true science.
President Joe Biden has continued and expanded the war on carbon that Clinton & Obama started. He has unashamedly accelerated the decline of America, including the weakening of the U.S. military in the name of “Climate Change”. Even absurdly(107) pushing to electrify the Military.
Senator Ed Markey has served in Congress since 1976. Clearly a career politician and green ideologue.(109)
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez along with Senator Ed Markey, Cori Bush and others, has become very influential in creating energy policy in Washington. I am not saying they have sinister or evil intentions, it is just the fact that they do not understand energy and electricity generation. They obtain technical advice from activist organizations and people that also either do not understand the science of power generation or they have other agenda(s) that is/are being promoted, such as the U.N. Agenda 21, U.N.-IPCC and World Economic Forum’s “Great Reset”.(120)
Congressional Representatives Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman. Power players for Green New Deal Policies.
Michael Bloomberg Also well known as a successful businessman and past Mayor of NYC. Perhaps good intentions, but his lavish funding of NGO’s to Demonize coal, oil and gas are in fact, un-American. He has given over 174 million to the Sierra Club for their “Beyond Coal” campaign.
Tom Steyer Another successful businessman and huge funder of propaganda to demonize conventional forms of energy. Steyer has given over 100 million to environmental activists.
Jeff Bezos of Amazon fame. Highly successful businessman and another person that should know better, but like Steyer and Bloomberg has given over 100 million dollars to Environmental Activist NGO’s to fight conventional fuels.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse A talented politician that is effective in accusing the opposing side of doing what his party has honed to perfection. Here is a review of his new book, “The Scheme”.
Senator Joe ManchinWhenhe was Governor of West Virginia I met him to discuss trade education in the WVA Community Colleges. A very personable guy. Well, one would think a Patriotic folksy and nice guy like Joe Manchin would put America and the state of West Virginia first. Right? No, he voted for the radical “Green New Deal”. If you review the references of funding of environmental activist organizations, it may help explain why.
Antonio Guterres, Socialist Leader, now United Nations Secretary General and he favors “One World Government” The UN-IPCC is a path toward such a body. I have written on the uselessness of the U.N. on an earlier blog post. Here. Also, on the views of the past President of the Czech Republic in his book, “Blue Planet in Green Shackles, Which is Endangered? Climate or Freedom?”, here.
World Economic Forum Leader, Klaus Schwab The WEF has been pretty much aligned with the U.N. and leftist causes to move toward World Totalitarianism. (120) WEF is an advocate for degrowth of population, deindustrialization and reduced food production. As mentioned above, John Kerry gave a speech on reducing agriculture(112) and the WEF published positions on Degrowth and Limiting the Use of Private Vehicles. (111, 112, 113)
WEF Member Bill Gates I suspect he has good intentions and yes, he has a lot of money to influence others. Here is an article published in the Guardian on some of his views on climate.(110)
Greta Thunberg She has not been trained in Atmospheric Science or any technical field, yet she is given speaking slots at the United Nations, WEF, TV and has been on the cover of Internationally distributed magazines.(115) Yes, she is very influential and absolutely hard to understand when real Scientists such as Dr’s. Judith Curry, Richard Linden, Roy Spencer, Pat Michaels, and many more…are ignored and not given the world stage to present the facts to the public, yet teenagers with little engineering or science training are posted on the cover of Internationally distributed magazines and hailed as heroes of the planet.
The previous post from January outlines some more information on people & organizations involved in influencing U.S. and world Climate Policy.
Deep Pockets
The enormous funding of the NGO’s which include “abortion” (which is aligned with environmental activist groups such as the Sierra Club and NRDC) (116, 117, 118) have a large impact on voter influence. The NGO’s are Tax exempt and have Billions of dollars in reserves to use. Some of the funds are reported to be provided by Dark money and some is provided by U.S. Taxpayer dollars, such as Planned Parenthood which is very much aligned with the policies of the Internationally connected environmental activists. (116, 117,118, 119, 120, 1F)
Global Influencers
The United Nations and the World Economic Forum are two key organizations responsible for current paths to one world government, discussed as decarbonization & environmental policies. Several books are listed below and I have written previous posts on the UN-IPCC and WEF policies and activities. Some NGO’s are global and are aligned with the WEF and the U.N. Such as: The Natural Resources Defense Council, the Sierra Club, Greenpeace and others.
I will attempt to be brief in connecting the dots from the early beginnings of the environmental movement.
The Beginnings of the Climate Extremists Movement
The start of the modern environmental action is (usually) credited to the book, “Silent Spring” by Rachel Carson in 1962. This book focused on the harmful affects of DDT insecticide and although there were abuses, the banning of DDT caused many millions of deaths in Developing countries from Malaria that could have been prevented by careful use of DDT for mosquito control. Then, following Silent Spring was Dr. Paul Erhlich’s 1968 book, “Population Bomb” where he outlined the decline of humanity due to over-population. The Sierra Club and Ehrlich had some interaction and the Sierra Club is mentioned in the book, Population Bomb. Following Erhich was the “Club of Rome” publication “Limits to Growth” was published in 1972. As stated in the sub title, “A Report to the Club of Rome on the Predicament of Mankind”.
Much of the story of Radical Environmentalism, Pseudo-Scientists and the Fatal Cult of Anti-Humanism is captured in Robert Zubrin’s book, “Merchants of Despair”.(53) Also connected with the environmental and population growth concerns has been the “Reproductive Rights”movement and “Planned Parenthood” founded by Margaret Sanger. The Sierra Club and Planned Parenthood have been somewhat aligned in their concerns for reducing population growth and protecting the environment, calling it the connection of “Reproductive Rights and Environmental Justice”.
Dirty Open Secrets
Two dirty little secrets of the environmental movements are: 1. they are a movement of socialism and 2. they favor Deindustrialization and Degrowth of the population. (at least, degrowth and depopulation of the western world and poor countries) The roots of these are provided in the books listed above. A more recent video of a Climate Activist explaining her feelings was shown on a video of the European Union meeting in May of this year. This link is to the ESG investing post on LinkedIn. The post by Joseph Castillo is copied below:
“Anuna De Wever Van Der Heyden is a 22-year-old Belgian climate activist. She delivered this speech at the Beyond Growth conference in the European Parliament on May 19th. Here is a link to a post-conference panel discussing the EU adoption of degrowth policies: https://lnkd.in/g68-PJ4d.
Van Der Heyden has not explicitly identified as a Marxist, but her views on economics and social justice are consistent with Marxist principles. She calls for the EU to adopt “degrowth economies,” policies that reduce GDP, consumption, and production to protect the environment. Not explicitly mentioned are policies that would slow or reverse population growth. These views are shared by many Marxists who believe that capitalism is inherently unsustainable and exploitative.
She has also called for “decolonization,” a process by which colonized areas achieve independence from the colonizing countries. For example, the American Revolution decolonized the present-day US from the British, India gained independence from the UK in 1947, and South Africa declared itself a republic and left the British Commonwealth of Nations in 1961. Obviously, the Brits are the problem.”
Ms. Van Der Heyden, in my opinion, represents the true beliefs of the typical Climate Activists. It is not about Climate, it is about control of the population and in fact, limiting the growth of population on the planet. Getting back to the writings and stated beliefs of the Club of Rome, Margaret Sanger and Paul Ehrlich.
The United Nations IPCC and the World Economic Forum have added their influence to the so called “Climate Activism”. The movement has grown worldwide and spread through the G7 countries. Oddly, few news articles mention the fact that China and Russia are not part of the decarbonization and in fact, China is growing in economic power by being the worlds largest manufacturing country. Powering that manufacturing is over 50% of the total coal burned in the world. Let’s get back to the path the U.S. is taking to self sabotage our electric reliability.
Self Sabotaging America’s Energy Infrastructure
America has no energy policy and is currently embarked on policies that will self sabotage electricity reliability, reduce availability of gasoline, Diesel, gas and propane, increase costs, increase food costs and reduce food availability to the people of America and to Developing countries.
The current Climate Policies will Deindustrialize America, lower our standard of living and infringe on our freedom. This is called Net Zero Carbon by 2050 and the decarbonization path currently sought, using wind and solar power to replace fossil fuels is absolutely wrong for our country.
My background is having worked as a nuts and bolts practical power engineer. My work experiences involved design, startup, operations, maintenance, performance tuning and designing steam generator and fuel burning equipment, including NOx reduction systems and efficiency enhancements for large coal fueled Utility steam generators. The picture below is the demolition of the L.V. Sutton, Unit #3, a 420 MW coal unit. This is typical of what we see today. This one is a bit nostalgic to me, because I was the lead startup engineer of this unit when it was commissioned in June 1972. Sure it was old, but it was capable of running at least ten more years until more Dispatchable or base load coal or nuclear units could be constructed.
Demolition, 2016 of Sutton Unit #3, 420 MW Coal Plant started up in June 1972, I was the lead startup engineer for Riley Stoker, the Steam Generator Manufacturer when this plant went commercial
Therefore, my experience base is Bulk Power Generation aka “Bulk Power Supply” (BPS). My observations from this viewpoint of working in the energy and electric power generation industry for over 50 years is that I saw and continue to read about the NGO Extremists, working in concert with the U.S.- EPA to formulate ever more stringent Regulations. U.S. regulations and Public Indoctrination have forced over 102 GW of coal and nuclear plants to shut down since 2011. The problem is exacerbated by RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) creating cut throat competition by forcing renewables onto the Grid (and consequent lowered capacity factors of reliable coal generation). This is created by Federal Policies that provide investment and production tax credits to solar and wind generation owners. Here is an excerpt of the July 2022 Reliability report from NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corp.) This is from page 25 of the July 2022, NERC “Bulk Power Supply Assessment” report.(3)
The shut down (2011-2021) of 102 GW (98.7 coal + 3.9 GW nuclear) of Reliable, affordable, Dispatchable and Abundant Bulk Power supply, without replacing these plants with like capacity of Dispatchable Bulk Power Supply generation assets is a serious problem for the U.S. This is what I refer to as self sabotaging our electric reliability right before our eyes. I have done some research to try to find the reason why the U.S. has such an absurd policy of mindless, Decarbonization by shutting down reliable coal plants (nuclear too) without replacing their needed generation capacity. The descriptions of Primary and Secondary Energy have been written on my previous Blog posts. There is no energy policy for an orderly transition to reduced carbon energy such as nuclear.
Federal Energy Commissioner Mark Christie testified to Congress this month on the fragility of our Bulk Power Supply for the future. (60)
The Public’s perceptions of coal, oil and gas have been poisoned with indoctrination by the United Nations, the U.S. government, the World Economic Forum, Environmental Extremist NGO’s, the Entertainment Industry, Main Stream media and “Woke” corporations. As someone posted comments attributed to Professor Michael Kelly on LinkedIn, “Where are the engineers?”
Summary
Not only the U.S. but the entire western world’s energy situation is in dire straights. In my view the future energy problems will exceed the difficulties of the 1973 and 1978 oil embargoes. These problems are being brought on by misguided politicians, NGO’s, “Woke” corporations, Entertainment and the MSM. Fixing it will be difficult. The purpose of this post is to try to connect the dots of how we have come to this energy mess.
Unless the Net Zero Carbon path is changed, America, the western world and poor countries of the world will have to reduce our quality of life. Our economic output will decline and so will America’s influence in the world. America’s influence in the world will decline and China’s will rise. I don’t have anything against the people of China, but the past history of the CCP does not read like a happy fairy tale. I personally prefer living by the freedoms provided in our Constitutional Republic .
There is no planned or organized energy transition to renewables. Period. It is Impossible without totally disrupting our economy, life-styles and quality of life.
Conclusions
Below are five groups of references for further reading to support my conclusions. These are in five categories:
Climate Science references from respected and credentialed Physicists and Atmospheric Scientists that challenge Anthropogenic Global Warming or Climate Change.
Energy, Minerals and Electricity Supply concerns for the future
Energy correlation with Economic output & Quality of Life
Climate Policies are about one world government and control of the citizens of the world, not protection of the environment. Books, News articles and reports documenting the fact that Climate Policies are Polic corruption of science and not about protection of the environment, clean air and clean water.
Energy Policymakers, Environmental Extremist and Activist NGO’s
As an example, here is a comment by Dr. Patrick Moore on the U.N.-IPCC report. Dr. Moore is one of many credentialed scientists that dispute Anthropogenic Climate Change. So do the scientists at the IPCC, but that is not what is reported by the Main Stream Media.
You do not have to believe me, kindly read the references which follow. They are all open sourced.
Yours very truly,
Dick Storm, Flag Day, June 14, 2023
References for further reading and research (Five categories):
Climate Science Books, websites, reports and information by Credentialed Physicists and Atmospheric Scientists:
53. Book: “Merchants of Despair” by Robert Zubrin, on Radical Environmentalists, CriminalPseudo-Scientists and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism: Published 2012 by Encounter Books and again in 2016 by the Heartland Institute
103. Sheldon Whitehouse’s new book where he will claim the opposition party does what he and his party have done very effectively, for decades: “The Scheme, where He accuses Republicans of using Dark Money”, when in fact, the Democrats do it much more: https://thenewpress.com/books/scheme
The purpose of this post is to show a few of the warnings that Congress has been unresponsive and the Executive Branch and EPA either clueless or Intentionally Causing the coming energy crisis. Paul Harvey’s classic radio commentary of 1964 comes to mind, “If I Were the Devil”.
Typical Coal Plant Demolition. This one in NSW Australia, but we in the U.S. have performed similar demolition of important power generation stations capable of generating reliable, affordable & Dispatchable power 24/7 during all weather conditions. It is heartbreaking for those of us who understand energy and electricity generation. But, it is cheered by about 50% of the world’s population because those who do not understand the importance of conventional forms of energy have been indoctrinated on the demonization of fossil fuels.
Introduction
Many of us who have been closely associated with energy production and electricity generation have known the day of reckoning is coming. In this post I will lift up some past posts, presentations and published articles to show the foolishness of the “Green New Deal” which has been codified in the so called, “Inflation Reduction Act” or IRA.
Below are two of the slides I presented to the ASME Annual Meeting in 2011. Yes, I have been an advocate for Common Sense Energy Policies for a long time.
The year 2011 was during the Obama Administration and the “War on Coal” was being escalated by the EPA and Activist NGO’s such as the Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, Environmental Defense Fund, Wild Earth Guardians and many more environmental extremist organizations. Shale gas was coming onto the market at ever increasing volume and low prices. Thus, as much coal generation was replaced with natural gas fuel, the consumers and industry had no concerns for the future. But, those of us associated with the power industry knew the crisis was coming.
Let me point out the graph on the second slide above, this correlates Coal use and GDP 1970-2010. Yes, Life was very good for us and our country’s electricity was generated by about 50% coal power generation. Blackouts were very rare. Brownouts were very rare. Let’s fast forward to the claimed great success of the carbon hating Bureaucrats and their allies in the NGO’s. I will show a screen print from the Sierra Club website below. They continue to be very proud of their accomplishments in the war on coal, which really is a war on the consumer.
This is from the Sierra Club web site. Note above they are literally bragging about shutting down 372 coal plants with 158 plants to go. Not only shut down, but completely demolished. Both the environmental activists and the U.S. Government top officials have a goal of shutting down all coal plants by 2030.
Let me direct your attention to the slide below. This is also a screenshot of the Sierra Club web site. Notice that not only do they want to shut down coal plants, they also want to kill natural gas production and pipelines. Not clearly shown today, but in their’s and other activist goals has been the opposition to nuclear power.
At the end of this post I will provide many references for further reading on the war on coal-natural gas and nuclear. This is serious folks. These people and their organizations do not understand energy and appear to have no concern for the harm they are causing to the citizens of the U.S.A.
Part 2 of this post will be a summary of how these Un-American Climate Policies have come to be and to list some of the policies, organizations and people that have contributed to the Clean Energy Crisis that our country and the Free Western World is facing.
Closing
The coalescence of environmental activists, government officials (both elected and Bureaucrats), the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, the Main Stream Media, Entertainment, Woke Businesses & Industries and leftist activist organizations have put our country on a path of weakness and decline. It must be stopped. But before it will be reversed there will be many industries, businesses and citizens who will be harmed. It did not have to happen this way. (2) Kindly read the references listed below for support of my conclusions.
History has shown that countries rise, fall and rise again. The economic decline of the U.S. should not be hastened by self destructive and unnecessary environmental restrictions.
The true facts on the importance of conventional forms of energy are well described in many books. Especially the books by Donn Dears(19) and Vaclav Smil(95) these provide excellent insight into the importance of conventional forms of energy. Mr. Dears provides a very enlightened summary in about 100 pages.
Yours very truly and on this Memorial Day, We should pause and remember those who fought and died to secure our freedom. May God Bless America,
Dick Storm presentation to the American Coal Council, 2008 on “Perceptions of Coal” This is not posted online that I know of. I can send a copy upon request.
This is an update on my comments to the IRP development for my local Regional Utility, Santee-Cooper. The last draft IRP has been published for comment and the figure below shows the expected load growth up to 2042. This Figure is from page 28 of the IRP presentation updated in April 2023. Shockingly, there is serious planning to shut down all coal plants by 2034 without having a Balanced Portfolio of replacement Bulk Power Supply that is Dispatchable, affordable and of reliable supply. Some energy news/issues authors, when discussing energy policy, speak metaphorically of “Falling off the Cliff” The illustration of projected load growth for Santee-Cooper is an example of planning to “Fall off the Cliff” by (NOT) Balancing Bulk Power Supply & load Demand. (The graph reminds me of the old saying, “Failing to Plan is a Plan for Failure”. How? By not providing adequate new generation capacity as older, reliable, dependable and Dispatchable coal units are retired. This is typical all across the U.S. and the western free world(6,10,14,15,15,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,27)
I had hoped that the more conservative, level headed General Assembly of S.C. would have better sense than to follow the “Woke policy” of the U.S. government and other states. There is still time to wake up to reality. (5,8)
The slide below is from my ENERUM presentation, August 2022. Data and chart are from the July 2022 NERC Report.(10) This shows 102 GW of Dispatchable & Reliable coal and nuclear plants shut down since 2011. This is shown to illustrate the fact that Santee-Cooper seems to be following the same destructive path as other utilities in the U.S.
Can a Great 80+ Year Record of Reliability and Affordability be Sustained While Retiring Coal Plants? Is S.C. Self Sabotaging our Great Record of Reasonable Cost, Reliable Bulk Power Supply? Why? Can the Legislature Stop the Madness?
It is my understanding, that the management of Santee-Cooper has been directed to formulate a plan to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050. Anyone that knows me, knows that I do not agree with this plan and my posts on this blog and my public presentations have clearly shown my analysis of the madness of Net Zero Carbon & the War on Coal. I have written letters to Santee-Cooper, the Governor, Congressional representatives and my S.C. Senator. Most of these have been made public. Myself and others that have knowledge of energy and electricity generation know that the path to Net Zero carbon is not possible by 2050.(4,5,6,7,8)Not without severe disruption of our way of life, our economy, industrial output, controlling inflation and national security. It is important for our state to generate electricity reliably, with high quality frequency and voltage control, from Dispatchable generators to meet customer Demand and do this 24/7 affordably under all weather conditions…..This has been done by Santee-Cooper for almost 90 years. Thanks to the reliability of coal, nuclear, natural gas generation and hydro-electric. Why would the Legislature force this fine Utility to sabotage its great record? The chart below is from the 2020 IRP. This lists the Dispatchable, Reliable, Affordable generating assets that have created and continue to provide a great record. In essence, the apparent path of the IRP update is to replace 61% of the reliable coal generation with “Intermittent” solar and wind generation.
Path to Jeopardizing S.C. Bulk Power Affordability, Reliability and Dispatchability
The S.C. Legislature has directed Santee-Cooper through “Act 90” to meet a net zero carbon goal by 2050.
The slide above is copied from the Santee-Cooper IRP presentation. My understanding is, that this is the direction ordered by the legislature. A plan to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050.
There is active planning to not only shut down the 1,150 MW Winyah coal plant in 2028 but also to shut down the 2,350 MW Cross Coal plant about five years later so that in 2034 all coal plants will be shut down. This is shown on the slides below. Shutting down all coal plants by 2034, in my opinion, will jeopardize the very favorable record of reasonable cost, reliable and Dispatchable electricity Bulk Power Supply that has become associated with Santee-Cooper’s great reputation. Even more importantly, South Carolina’s excellent record of attracting and keeping a thriving industrial base within this region. Electricity intensive industries such as aluminum and steel manufacturers/Recyclers have thrived here as manufacturers in other states have ended operations and ceded U.S. manufactured steel and aluminum capacity to China.
Let me digress and quote Vaclav Smil’s statement on decarbonization. From Professor Smil’s book, “How the World Really Works” This applies to S.C. Too!
“The real wrench in the works: we are a fossil-fueled civilization whose technical and scientific advances, quality of life, and prosperity rest on the combustion of huge quantities of fossil carbon, and we cannot simply walk away from this critical determinant of our fortunes in a few decades, never mind years. Complete decarbonization of the global economy by 2050 is now conceivable only at the cost of unthinkable global economic retreat, or as a result of extraordinarily rapid transformations relying on near-miraculous technical advances.” Smil continues….
But who is going, willingly, to engineer decarbonization while we are still lacking any convincing, practical, affordable global strategy and technical means to pursue the latter? What will actually happen? The gap between wishful thinking and reality is vast, but in a democratic society no contest of ideas and proposals can proceed in rational ways without all sides sharing at least a modicum of relevant information about the real world, rather than trotting out their biases and advancing claims disconnected from physical possibilities.”
I have written other posts on this Blog to express my thoughts on competition with China and the importance for America to reshore U.S. manufacturing. This my friends, is in our backyard, our neighborhood, our state. This is a fact as stated above10). Premature retirements of reliable coal plants has been occurring at an alarming rate all across the U.S. Do we have to follow the same foolish self sabotaging policies of NY, Hawaii, Germany, the UK and Texas? I hope not. (12,13,14,15,)
Future Bulk Power Generation Capacity, The Apparent Plan to Self Sabotage Reliable Bulk Power Supply
Expected Outcome of Adding Over 4,250 MW of Non Dispatchable, Intermittent Bulk Power Supply
If all of the coal plants are retired and the portfolio shown above is used. Her are my predictions, based on the experiences of Hawaii, California, Texas, Germany, Denmark and the UK.
California is thought by some in government to be a model for the U.S. with regard to renewable energy policy. I do not agree. Here is a recent post by the CEO of the Electric Power Research Institute on how the California electric load (as reported by CAISO) has morphed from a “Duck Curve to a Canyon Curve”. Here is a screenshot of Dr. Mansoor’s post:
The “Canyon” curve represents high renewable generation during the peak sunshine of the day where California has bragging rights to sourcing almost all of their electricity from solar collectors. This is great until folks come home from work, mom starts dinner in her totally electric home and Dad plugs in his EV for charging. By early evening, electricity demand skyrockets out of the Canyon and must, for the sake of reliability, be generated to meet demand from Dispatchable sources.
Battery storage is not Bulk Power Supply. Batteries store electricity they do not generate electricity. Batteries are capable, depending on the size of the installation, of providing minutes or hours of backup. The largest battery storage in the U.S. is the Vistra Energy, Moss Landing facility in CA. The CAISO load for April 27 is expected to be about 30,000 MW. Note the largest battery storage facility in the world, Moss Landing, is 1600 MW which is about 5% of the Demand and only capable of providing minutes or hours of stored electricity.
Here is another post from another energy expert on LinkedIn. This graphic shows the electric generation through the day which includes battery storage.
The Moss Landing Storage facility is rated at 400/1600 MW and is capable of storing excess renewable generation for hours so that it can be used as the sun sets and kick in as the “Canyon Curve” and CA power supply and Demand Curves above become reality of demand. Emphasis should be on “Hours” it is not capable of backup during a days long cold severe winter storm, such as NC and SC experienced over Christmas week, 2022. Another example is the 150 MW Battery storage designed for Queensland, Australia and an artists depiction below. This is from an essay reviewing the NY electricity future written on the Blog, Watts Up With That.
Battery storage such as shown above is very costly. For example, the 150 MW facility above is projected to cost $250/kWh. Therefore for 12 hours of storage for 450 MW, the cost would be about $1.35 Billion dollars. Keep in mind, this is for 12 hours storage of only 450 MW of power. Winter storms such as the Christmas 2022 storm lasted longer than 12 hours and even very conservative, steeped in energy expertise Duke Energy, also with a great reputation for reliable electric service, had rolling Blackouts. Ditto for TVA(18,19,20,21,22,23).
When the sun is not shining and the wind not blowing, then the generation must be purchased from neighboring Utilities or generated with Dispatchable natural gas generation. The plan shown above includes 4,316 MW of natural gas generation. This combined with the 322 MW of Summer Unit #1 nuclear power totals 4,638 MW. The wind generators, though intermittent, could generate another 400 MW to total 5,038 MW. The projections of up to 9,000 MW Demand in 2050 (according to Santee-Cooper projections) then will require additional Dispatchable generation which is likely to be natural gas CT’s or Combined Cycle facilities. Think for example of the uncertain growth of Electric Vehicles. If much of transportation is “Electrified”, then the high range projections of about 9,000 MW peaks can be expected in 2050 or before. So, why would we kill the coal plants that have served South Carolinians so well?
This reminds me of my experiences working for CP&L in the 1970’s when the manager of Fossil Plant Engineering pointed to an oil fueled CT and proclaimed to me, then a young engineer, “That young man is a monument to poor planning”. Yes, as CP&L (That was before CP&L merged with Florida Progress and was later absorbed by Duke Energy). I see history repeating here as so much faith in renewables today is somewhat like the high expectations of nuclear being “Too Cheap to Meter” beliefs of the 1970’s. However, nuclear power eventually delivered. Wind and solar are not capable of replacing coal, nuclear and gas fueled Bulk Power Generation. In the 1970’s the Bulk Power Supply gaps were made up with quickly installed, oil fueled CT’s. Today, thanks to reliable, affordable natural gas, the backup generation, when solar and wind cannot deliver, is gas fueled CT’s or Combined Cycle plants. This is doable and satisfactory… providing that pipelines are of adequate capacity and natural gas remains affordable and Federal Regulations on drilling, Hydraulic Fracturing, pipelines and fuel supply infra-structure is expanded as needed, when it is needed. The Federal Government is wrong on their war on carbon and the natural gas resources just may not be as abundant in 2040 or 2050 as they are now. Because, the Federal Government currently highly regulates exploration, drilling, production and transport of any fossil fuels. The uncertainty of future primary energy supply is why a Balanced Generation Portfolio is important. A Balanced Energy Portfolio will include nuclear, coal, gas and renewables.
Have the Importance of Reserves Been Forgotten?
Santee-Cooper is a Regional Utility. In other states, such as PA, OH, WVA, NJ & DE many utilities the size of Santee-Cooper have joined RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) such as the PJM Interconnection. In the Midwest it is MISO (Midwestern Independent System Operator) With RTO’s, the electricity generation is shared across state lines and with different utilities with separation of the ownership of the generating plants and the transmission and distribution of the Bulk Power. This has eliminated accountability for individual utilities such as Philadelphia Electric, Potomac Electric Power Company, Public Service of NJ, PP&L and others to plan for Reserve Generation capacity. Therefore, there is no accountability for lack of reserves. I presented examples in my ENERUM talk slides(6) . There is some talk of Santee-Cooper joining a similar RTO with the Southeast Electric Exchange. In my strong opinion and based on the references listed below and my experiences, Santee-Cooper should plan for their own (Our own) reserves. Reserve generation from others states was depended on Christmas week 2022 by TVA and Duke Energy. Two fine utilities, also with great records from the past. But, the reserves from neighboring states were not available due to Demand exceeding supply. Reserves of 15-20% have always been important for reliability and to keep generation costs reasonable by not requiring the startup of backup power generation using high cost fuels such as Diesel or spot market gas. Donn Dears has written several books on this. Here is a graph from the book, “Clean Energy Crisis”, on the Reserve generation that was planned in 2018. However, Texas Blackouts in 2021 killed over 200 people. The ERCOT planners in 2018 had performed due diligence as Santee-Cooper is doing now with well respected consulting services to perform computer analyses of planned reserve margins. Do we need to learn the hard way as Texans did in 2021?
Facts to be Consider regarding Electricity and South Carolina’s High Quality of Life
The experiences of other states and other countries should be considered. I cited the examples of California, Texas and Hawaii above. Much analysis has been put into the planning by some very smart engineers and planners. However, computer modeling of the “Future” weather, fuel prices, EV use, population growth, industrial growth and other uncertainties, will likely create a need for other sources than wind and solar renewables. Just as Texas learned in 2021 after performing similar planning.
Primary Energy and Secondary Energy
Each S.C. resident on average uses about 300 million Btus per year in Primary Energy. If the trend to “Electrify Everything” continues, then more of the energy use currently provided at reasonble prices for transportation and our high quality of life, will be substituted for by (Secondary Energy) electricity or hydrogen. Such as more EV’s as the government is forcing us to use. Therefore, the growth of electricity demand may be much greater than expected. Thus, my title which relates to potential 9,000 MW Demand in 2050.
Over 50% of South Carolina’s electricity has been provided by nuclear power for decades. SC is rated as #3 in the nation in nuclear power generation. Nuclear power has served SC citizens and industry well. Safe, affordable, Base load capable at 90+% capacity factor and proven. However, the great record and importance of nuclear is not discussed by politicians or even utilities. For example, Palmetto Electric promotes the use of “Green Power” when in fact, it is a small contributor to the total portfolio of power generation. Here is an example of “Green indoctrination” by a bill insert that misleadingly leads citizens to believe that most of their power is from renewables:
The reality of our future electricity generation is that nuclear is the most important and least carbon intensive fuel for electricity generation. The plan to expand the Summer nuclear plant with two additional units was a very good idea. However, it was not to be because of poor management, limited trained talent and failure by Bankruptcy of Westinghouse, the primary contractor. The planned new Pee Dee coal plant near Florence was also a good idea and provided for natural growth of generating capacity to meet Demand. Pee Dee, (600 MW coal plant) in my understanding, was killed because of outside influence of Environmental Extremists. Had the Summer Units 2 & 3 and the 600 MW Pee Dee Clean Coal Plant been built as planned, then together these three units would have provided 2,800 MW of Base Load plus reliable, affordable and clean, Dispatchable Bulk Power. Including some reserve generation capacity.
Is the Great State of South Carolina going to sabotage our future just because other countries and states are doing so? I hope not.
Conclusions
The“War on Carbon” is based on politics and corrupted science. It is about Socialism and not about protecting the environment. The South Carolina Legislature seems to be just as gullible of the green myth as the current Federal government leaders.
The UN-IPCC is also Politically Driven and Not based on protection of the environment or to provide for the best interests of the people of the world. The Paris Climate Agreement is not in the best interests of America, the free western world or even for protection of the environment. It is politically motivated.
The path to Net Zero Carbon is steadily weakening our country. It will eventually destroy America’s productive capacity, lower our standard of living and place national security at risk. It will hasten the decline of America and the Rise of China.
America requires 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year to sustain our quality of life. This is about 300 million BTUs per person, per year. Currently, after decades of subsidies, wind and solar provide about 5% of the total PRIMARY energy we use. Wind and solar cannot replace the other 95% of energy we need.
A Balanced Portfolio of Generating Capacity as is currently installed at Santee-Cooper generating plants, is the best path forward to sustain our high quality of life and economic prosperity. Reserve generation from dynamic generators is needed. Battery backup does not provide the same system voltage and frequency control as spinning reserve generator rotors do.
Electric generation planning in the 1970’s and 1980’s was better than today. There is no Energy Policy in America, there is only a decarbonization plan(4,5,6,7), there is no well thought out plan to replace the reliable and dispatchable generating capacity that is being shut down across the country. As during the 1970’s when nuclear units were late coming into service, the quickest available generating capacity was to install gas turbines. This is likely here in SC if the coal plants are retired before Dispatchable or Base Load replacement generation is installed.
Recommendations
Initiate a comprehensive Energy and Electricity Education program to provide 1. public education on energy, 2. Public School education on energy and electricity generation and 3. Public Technical/Trade School education to prepare youth for the construction workforce. Energy Education is recommendation #1 of the path forward. Public education is needed to reverse the myth that wind and solar can replace coal, gas and nuclear power generation. This is priority #1 because so many people are “Green Energy” indoctrinated.
Plan and continue to provide adequate Operations and maintenance funds for repairs and component replacements of the boilers, pumps, turbines and all of the equipment installed at the Cross Coal Plant. Keep the full 2,350 MW capacity so that it can be used until replacement generation is built and proven.
Construct the 600 MW Pee Dee Coal plant that the components were purchased for in 2009.
Plan and begin construction on at least 2,000 MW of nuclear capacity. (as was planned for the Summer Units 2 & 3). Please re-read recommendation #1 above.
Plan and construct at least 1,750 MW of combined cycle gas plants
The coal, nuclear and gas plants 2,3 & 4 could replace the existing Cross coal plant capacity, thus continuing a “Balanced Generation Portfolio”
Summary
South Carolina can be an example of applied Common Sense Energy policies that can be a model for the U.S.A. and for the world. The current reasonable cost electricity in SC is amongst the lowest cost in the nation. Over 50% is generated from 4 nuclear plants with seven units. Four of these 7 nuclear units started up in the 1970’s. These four units operating licenses will expire in the 2030’s. They may be extended for another 20 or 30 years by the NRC but, plans should be made to construct new nuclear units for replacement of carbon free, Dispatchable, reasonable cost electricity.
Every time I present a course on energy and electricity generation the comments come back, “You did not discuss Climate Change and Decarbonization”. My response is, I am not an atmospheric scientist. I am an experienced power engineer. My beef with the current path toward Net Zero Carbon is, there is not an organized plan to replace the vitally important electric generation that has kept our country strong. If the politicians were really serious about reducing carbon dioxide emissions and “Sustaining” our high quality of living, then nuclear plants would be on a fast track to construction. After the Summer 2 & 3 failure, SC politicians are rightfully concerned about the financial risks. Plant Vogtle in GA is an example of a major budget overrun. Last cost estimate that I saw shows that Vogtle will cost $34 Billion and the original planned cost was less than half the ultimate cost. Also, it took ten years to just get one of the units running.
In my opinion and research, I feel the war on carbon is a plan initiated by the U.N. (including competitors/enemies of the U.S.A.) and Socialists that have an agenda other than clean power generation. If we wish to “Sustain our high quality of life“, then we need a reasonable cost, abundant and reliable electricity supply. Nuclear is the most accepted approach to achieving that goal. Three examples of applying a Balanced Energy Portfolio with a high percentage of nuclear are S.C. (1970-2030), Sweden and Finland. For research into why I believe the “War on Carbon” is political, not environmentally driven, I have included dozens of references below. My concern for Santee-Cooper and for America is to keep our Bulk Power Supply safe, secure, reliable and affordable. Also, sourced from a U.S. Supply-Chain.
The Supply-Chain of all of the future generation equipment, in an ideal scenario, would be from U.S. sources. Including manufacturing and construction talent. The workforce education is a weakness that I believe had part in the $9 Billion dollar Summer 2 & 3 construction debacle. We should learn from the past 50 years of electric generating history. The successes and the failures.
Arshad Mansoor, CEO of EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) LinkedIn post, April 25, 2023 on the CAISO System. EPRI Post on the CAISO “Duck Curve changed to Canyon Curve” of Electric Load: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7056612841755181056-SCPK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
In My opinion and research, the Path to Net Zero Carbon is Based on Corrupted Science and Political Ploys to Promote Socialism and One World Government, Not to Save the Planet or to Improve the Environment. Therefore, to substantiate this claim the following references are provided:
Dick Storm's Thoughts on Energy, Education, Economic Prosperity & Environmental Blog 
