America’s Treasure of Fossil Fuels

I presented my views on the importance of coal to the ASME Annual Meeting in Dallas at the Plenary Session in the summer of 2011. Back then, over 50% of America’s electricity was generated by coal power and hundreds of new coal plants were in the planning stages to modernize the coal fleet. Electricity costs in the U.S. were amongst the lowest in the world. The map with electricity costs is from 2010 data and from Dick Storm presentation to the ASME Annual Meeting.

During last Thanksgiving week I was thinking of the many Blessings I have had over my life-time and it occurred to me that not only me but all other Americans are Blessed with an enormous treasure of energy (and many minerals we need too) right within our borders. It has been said before, “America is the Saudi Arabia of Coal”. What follows are some slide excerpts from my 2011 talk to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) where my main point was, “Coal is Important”. It was then and remains important in 2022.

Back in 2008-2011 there were hundreds of new coal plants in the planning or construction stages. Many of these were cancelled. At the end of this post, in the Conclusions, I have added a dozen or so references of some of the organizations and individuals that contributed to the stopping new construction or the shutting down of over 200 coal plants. Because the ASME meeting in 2011 was at the beginning of “Wokeness” by the ASME, not all organizers were pleased with what I had to say. However, thanks to a friend who was an ASME official at the time, I was given my full allotted time in the Plenary Session for my presentation. My compliments and appreciation to my career-long friend Sam Korellis, now retired from EPRI. Time flies, that was 11 years ago and since then over 102,000 MW’s of coal generation capacity has been shut down without being replaced in kind. This is a mistake that much of America will realize in a couple months when the 2023 winter begins. Here are my views, as presented 11 years ago on the importance of coal and I believe, still are applicable today.

Economic prosperity and coal consumption grew as America prospered 1970-2010. This in spite of the 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo.

I have used the U.S. Department of Energy Sankey Diagram of “Total Primary Energy” for many years and have discussed the fact that America typically requires 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy each year to power our high quality of life. Here below is the Sankey Diagram showing the Total Primary Energy used in 2008. Note it is 102.75 Quadrillion Btus. What has changed as the years (and War on Coal) have gone by, is the source of the fuels. In 2008 coal was 19.76 Quadrillion Btus. In 2021 coal was about half that at 10.5 Quadrillion Btus as natural gas fuel was more widely used for power generation 2008 to 2021. However, the total primary energy for normal economic activity remains right at 100 Quadrillion Btus. In 2019 before Covid, it was 101 Quads.

Four Facts that I opened my talk with: In 2011 about 82% of the world’s energy was fossil fuels. Today, fossil fuels continue to provide about the same percentage but actually, a greater quantity than in 2011 because more energy is used today than in 2011. My last of the four points is the most important. That is, Much damage to the American people and all of the people of the world has been inflicted by Green policies that are based on political wealth distribution purposes plus the myth that solar and wind can replace fossil fuels.

Summary of Where the U.S. Has Progressed in Energy Policy Since 2011

The presentation to the ASME was in the summer of 2011, 11 years ago. Since then over 102,000 MW of reliable, Dispatchable Coal plants have been shut down and only three new coal plants that I know of were started up in the U.S. (AEP-John Turk Station in Arkansas, Duke-Cliffside #6 and Longview in WVA). For a reliable grid there should be a Rational Energy Policy that would have provided incentives for continuing a Balanced electric generation portfolio. Including All Fuels and All Forms of Clean Energy, including Clean Coal, Nuclear, Gas Turbine Combined Cycle, wind and solar.

As if to highlight the irrational Energy Policy today, my friend Thomas sent me a news clip on the Pirky Plant in Texas being forced to shut down(1) just this week. His appropriate description of the news item is: “Losing the War against Stupidity”. So it seems.

There has been no planning of a so called “Energy Transition to wind and solar, only shut downs of reliable, Dispatchable coal and nuclear plants.

These coal and nuclear plant shut downs have been driven by environmental zealots funded by non energy savvy Billionaires. To be fair, they may have good intentions on contributing to a cleaner and better world. However, Net-Zero Carbon by 2035 or even 2050 will not be possible without sacrificing our quality of life. The folks that contribute to the environmental extremists and the organizations have indoctrinated many of the people of the world by demonizing the very fuels that have lifted billions from poverty. Amongst them are the Sierra Club, National Resources Defense Council, Environmental Defense Council and many more. Many of the executives from the environmental extremist groups have served both the EPA and government agencies. This is well documented by a 2015 report by Congress . Numerous references below document the revolving door of extremists being placed in high government positions. Background and expertise in electric power production or any proficiency in energy production or engineering is not a requiremment for these individuals that are now in powerful government positions. The lack of an energy policy is partially explained by the lack of proficiency or understanding by people in high office. The organizations that set U.S. Energy (Non) Policy are depicted in the illustration below which I have used in recent presentations.

So, What Went Wrong?

The root cause of our foolish and anti-American energy policy in my opinion, is due to many years of mis-education and indoctrination of the public on the Myth that Solar and Wind can replace coal, natural gas and nuclear generation. Also, replace Fossil Fuels for transportation, plastics, Fertilizer, concrete and steel production. The indoctrination of the public on the myth that wind and solar can provide all of America’s energy has been well orchestrated, but it is wrong for America and wrong for the Free World.

The organizations shown in the above illustration have done much to misguide the public. In addition to the organizations above, there are many “Woke” corporations and organizations that may have “good intentions” to promote “Electrifying Everything” but…. it is simply not possible to do so. So here we are at the end of a Decade of misinformation and Indoctrination and the result is a worldwide Energy Crisis. According to the head of the IEA, Dr. Faith Birol, yes it is a world energy crisis, worse than the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. Similar dire warnings from energy experts, such as Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Experts.

Conclusions

  1. I still believe the 2011 ASME presentation on the Importance of Coal, to be valid and a valid component of a Rational Energy Policy. America should use our enormous treasure of nuclear, coal, oil and gas minerals that lie within our borders.
  2. Net Zero Carbon by 2050, Using All Renewables is Not Practical or Attainable
  3. Energy Policy in the U.S. is determined by Environmental Extremists and Politicians that do not have training or proficiency in engineering and energy production.
  4. There is No U.S. Policy for an Orderly Transition to Carbon-Free Energy
  5. Energy Independence should be a central component of any U.S. Energy Policy.
  6. .An Energy Crisis including Blackouts is Likely in Winter 2023. Energy Policy is Set by Politicians, Un-Elected Bureaucrats and Lobbyists, Driven by Green $ Incentives to Utilities and Independent Power Generation Developers
  7. Hydrogen as Stored Energy, Has Technical Merit, But does not yet make Economic good sense. It still takes about 3-4 units of electricity kWh to make one useable kWh
  8. .Producing Hydrogen from Nuclear Energy is Practical and Proven and may lead to affordable hydrogen….But it will take years
  9. A “Rational Energy Policy” to Transition to Future Energy supply, should include All Fuels, including Dispatchable Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear.  Renewables where practical. 
  10. We should not Shut Down and Demolish Existing Generation until new HELE Coal Plants for Bulk Power Generation is assured in order to maintain a Balanced Generation Portfolio.
  11. A partial list of key players that are setting U.S. Energy Policy. (Hint, These are not people trained in engineering & planning Electricity Generation Capacity):
  12. The preceding list of organizations and individuals are some of the anti conventional fuels Zealots that have molded the United States Energy Policies, which are in fact, Not Energy Policies at all, just a continuing “War on Coal and Conventional Fuels” This my friends is how America the greatest country in the world, is self inflicting harm on our economy, national security and against the best interests of the American people. One would think that the Bureaucrats in Washington do not read the news of the energy problems and causes in Europe? We should know by now, the importance of true Energy Independence.

Respectfully and yours truly,

Dick Storm, November 25, 2022

References and for further reading:

  1. Eco regulations force massive coal plant to shut down, sparking community uproar | Fox Business. Typical news of the harm done to citizens by out of control Bureaucrats: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/eco-regulations-force-massive-coal-plant-shut-down-sparking-community-uproar
  2. Gina McCarthy, Climate Czar, IRS 990 form when she worked at NRDC between Obama and Biden Administrations: Click to access nrdc-actionfund-990-2020.pdf
  3. Big Green Radicals, 2014  : https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/epa-report.pdf
  4. Business Insider, Links of Russian Funds to NRDC Funding to fight Fracking: https://www.businessinsider.com/a-russian-linked-company-in-bermuda-is-funneling-millions-to-us-anti-fracking-groups-2015-1
  5. 2011 American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Plenary Meeting presentation, Why Coal is Important: https://www.stormeng.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2011-Why-Coal-is-Important-for-America-ASME-Annual-Meeting-2011.pdf
  6. Joe Gothman Atty in EPA Revolving Door of well funded non-Profits and EPA: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
  7. Donn Dears article on U.S. Energy Resources, July 2022https://bit.ly/3J5OnTc
  8. What is Endangered, Freedom or Climate: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/02/27/what-is-endangered-climate-or-freedom-this-is-the-sub-title-of-the-book-blue-planet-in-green-shackles/
  9. Is Manmade Global Warming causing more hurricanes? https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/16/is-global-warming-responsible-for-hurricane-ian-the-evidence-says-no/
  10. On Arctic Ice: :  https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/no-melting-greenland-ice-is-not-about-to-swamp-coastal-areas
  11. On Tidal Rise: https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/no-melting-greenland-ice-is-not-about-to-swamp-coastal-areas
  12. Benefits of CO2 to the planet:  http://sepp.org/twtwfiles/2022/TWTW%2011-05-22.pdf
  13. Urban Heat Island science: http://sepp.org/twtwfiles/2022/TWTW%2011-05-22.pdf
  14. On Scientific Consensus of Anthropogenic Global Warminghttps://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/97-consensus-on-climate-change-survey-shows-only-59-of-scientists-expect-significant-harm
  15. Monuments to Poor Planning, What Do you Think they will be in 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/
  16. Donn Dears, Blackouts Threaten New England Again?:  https://ddears.com/2022/10/25/blackouts-threaten-new-england-again/
  17. If the Climate Zealots Really Cared about CO2 Then, they would embrace Nuclear Power: WSJ, Opinion, May 27, 2022, Jason Hayes, “Why Blackouts are Coming to Michigan” Regarding shutdown of Palisades Nuclear Generating Plant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-electricity-blackouts-are-coming-to-michigan-nuclear-power-plant-green-energy-renewable-climate-11653685521?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=5&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s
  18. World Nuclear Organizationhttps://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx
  19. U.S. Grid Monitor, Real Time Bulk Power across U.S. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/US48/US48
  20. Liberty Energy, “Bettering Human Lives Report”: https://www.libertyenergy.com/betteringhumanlivesv2/
  21. Capital Research Center, Nov. Dec. 2021 Issue: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf
  22. WUWT Blog on Global Fuels Use, July 11, 2021: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/07/11/2020-global-energy-data-shows-fossil-fuels-completely-dominate-world-energy-use/
  23. IEA Energy and Food Production: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis
  24. Activist Facts,  Environmental Report (Follow the Money): https://www.activistfacts.com/organizations/19-natural-resources-defense-council/
  25. China and World Carbon Dioxide emitters Columbia Univ.: https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/getting-30-60-how-china-s-biggest-coal-power-cement-and-steel-corporations-are-responding-national
  26. Capital Research Center, The Left’s War on Coal: https://capitalresearch.org/article/the-lefts-war-on-coal-part-3/
  27. There is No Climate Emergency, Dr. Judith Curry: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YBdmppcfixM&feature=emb_logo
  28. Dr. Steve Koonin, Is There Really a Climate Emergency?: https://www.prageru.com/video/is-there-really-a-climate-emergency?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=campaign_5331670

ENERGY AND ECONOMIC PROSPERITY

A few weeks ago, I commented on a post on LinkedIn by Donna Castro. My question was, “I wonder what the correlation is between Economic Prosperity and Energy Use”. So, to answer my own question I did a little research and here is the result of that search.

The “Visual Capitalist”(1) published the graphic above Dec. 21, 2021. I have been interested in the relationship of energy use to fuel Economic Prosperity for many years and liked this graphic.

The total world GDP is projected to be 94 Trillion Dollars. Only 18 countries have greater than a 1% share of the total world economy. The U.S.A. and China comprise about 42%. The ten largest economies are:

So, back to my curiosity of relating energy use to economic output, I thought it would be useful to show the top ten countries ranked by total energy use. Statista and other organizations list these. I used the chart from Statista. Not surprisingly, the data from all sources show the largest economies use the greatest quantity of primary energy. China is the world’s largest manufacturer and they produce over 50% of the world’s steel and aluminum. Primary metals production is very energy intensive, thus, it is expected that China will use the greatest amount of primary energy and they do.

Chart by Statista.com

The Net-Zero Carbon Emissions Policies of America brings to mind the threat to our economic prosperity and our comfortable life styles. I have written my thoughts on Net-Zero Carbon, the War on Coal, War on Carbon and my opinion of Net-Zero Carbon, in other posts on my Blog.

A new book by Donn Dears is available which has lots of background and details with fresh information of why the Net-Zero Carbon policies of the Biden Administration are harmful to the U.S.A. I recommend his book for anyone who is interested in the relationship of Economic Prosperity and Reasonable and well thought out Energy Policy. Net-Zero Carbon and the current “Green” initiatives in Congress are not reasonable and not well thought out by people who understand energy and electricity generation.

The Net-Zero Carbon Emissions Policies of America brings to mind the threat to our economic prosperity and our comfortable life styles. How can we reshore more manufacturing and become energy independent again by following anti-American energy policies as laid out in the path to Net-Zero Carbon? I have written my thoughts on Net-Zero Carbon, the War on Carbon and my opinion of this policy on this Blog and other publications. However, Mr. Dears has done a very nice job of condensing many issues of Net-Zero Carbon into about 100 pages.

Donn Dears.org

Note the Sub-Title: Which correctly states, “The Climate Policy Destroying America”

The theme and title of this post is “Energy and Economic Prosperity” the current U.S. Climate Policy is weakening America and Mr. Dears is correct with his choice of sub-title.

I recommend his book and the information available on his web page for reference on Energy Policies that affect our Economy and our life styles:  https://ddears.com

I have been concerned about the war on coal and now the war on carbon for many years. Not only is Net-Zero carbon harmful to the U.S.A. but it is also slowing down Human Development of countries in the Developing World. Going back to the first illustration above, note that the U.S.A. and China comprise 42% of the World’s GDP and that only 18 countries exceed 1% of the total 94 Trillion Dollars of World GDP. 

Energy and Human Development Index

The Illustration below is available on the ExxonMobil(3) website and is based on U.N. data.  Note that 50% of the world’s countries and 20% of the world population do not have fuel for cooking. I personally have experienced walking down the streets of cities in numerous Developing countries. I have witnessed heavy pollution which stings the eyes. Such pollution is not found in the U.S. Many Asian countries still use cow dung for indoor cooking.

My point: The Net-Zero Carbon Path that the U.N. has adopted does not serve the Developing countries very well either.

Let me show another of my favorite illustrations of Energy Poverty in the world. This is the NASA Composite Photo, “The Earth at Night”. These night time photos show the differences of energy and electricity abundance or shortages by the illumination that is visible from space. First let’s look at Africa and Europe: 

NASA, Earth at Night Composite Photo

NASA, Satellight Photo at night showing Europe and the continent of Africa. Also apparent in the Human Development Chart above showing Yemen and Nigeria as two Developing countries that have a low HMI (Human Development Index) with a corresponding low energy consumption.

Compare this to the United States at night below:

Conclusions:

  1. The U.S. President & Congress’ quest to enact Net-Zero Carbon into law will weaken America’s capability to sustain our economy and our life styles.
  2. Energy and Economic Prosperity are inextricably linked and restricting energy production and development weakens our country. Don’t forget the Fossil fuels needed for our Nations Defense. F-22’s and F-35’s require high quality Jet fuel.
  3. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) both of which are worldwide, are harmful to Developing Countries as well as OECD countries.
  4. The only winners in the UNFCC and IPCC agreements (if they are fully implemented) is China and Russia.

For more details, I suggest reading Mr. Dears books on the subject. He has written several excellent texts.

Dick Storm, January 3, 2022

References:

  1. Visual Capitalist:  https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-94-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/
  2. Statista.com for ranking of energy use by country: https://www.statista.com/statistics/263455/primary-energy-consumption-of-selected-countries/
  3. ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy 2021: https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/outlook-for-energy/2021/2021-Outlook-for-Energy-fundamentals-infographic.pdf
  4. NASA, “The Earth at Night” composite photo: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentFeature/NightLights/images/media/BlackMarble_2016_EuroAfrica_composite.png
  5. https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/79000/79800/dnb_united_states_lrg.jpg
  6. NASA Earth Explorer: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/map#6/40.000/-100.000

Demystifying the Importance of Energy and Electric Power

Monday evening I was invited to the Sunset Rotary Club to provide a presentation on energy and electric power generation. I accepted the invitation because I believe it is important for the general public to understand the importance of affordable, reliable energy and electricity generation. Rotary Clubs are comprised of great civic minded people that are involved in the community. Thus, the title of the talk, “Demystifying the Importance of Energy and Electric Power” . My intention was to help the Rotarians understand the differences of Primary and Secondary Energy, Dispatchability of electricity generation and provide an overview of the sources of our energy. Here is the presentation with a short narrative of each of the slides I used to compress a two hour topic into 30 minutes:

The object of the short talk was to cover the importance of energy and to attempt to bring the facts to community leaders that care, but are not experts in or involved in energy engineering or businesses.

Rotary members are very active in the community and the world in helping the less fortunate. The first part of the meeting was members discussing helping students and those people in the community that are living in poverty. (Yes, on Hilton Head Island we have a lot of poverty) In my attempt to pique the attention of members on the plight of people living in Developing countries and the relationship of energy and economic prosperity, I used the cover of the June 2021 Rotary Magazine. This showed an example of indoor cooking of a family in Mongolia. Another photo of a woman cooking over a wood fire in Africa. Lifting people such as these from poverty can be done with the wise and careful use of fossil fuels. Such as propane and natural gas for cooking and coal for electricity generation.

Most of America’s energy is provided by conventional forms of energy; petroleum, natural gas, coal, nuclear, biomass and hydroelectric. These six forms of primary energy provide over 90% of the energy we use, need and depend on to power our high quality of living. I used the John Deere tractor as an image to get attention to the energy component of food production. Rotary is involved in helping the less fortunate all around the world. The Energy cost component of food production is over 50% for most foods when “farm to table” is considered. Costs such as; fertilizer, tractor fuel, grain drying, food processing, refrigeration for dairy and meat products and distribution transportation power and supermarket refrigeration. As energy costs rise, they become one of the root causes of inflation.

The relationship of energy and economic growth is well known by those of us that have worked in the energy business but not so well known by the general public. To illustrate this relationship I used the data compiled by the U.S. Department of Energy back in 2010 to show the correlation of coal consumption and GDP growth from 1970-2010. This GDP growth was steady and in spite of the Arab Oil Embargo’s of 1973 and 1980. Back in the late 1970’s, when Jimmy Carter was President, his Administration promoted a National Energy policy that focused on Domestically produced energy. Because America is the “Saudi Arabia of Coal” over 50% of the U.S. ever growing electricity generation, continued to be from coal fuel.

Moving forward from 2010 to 2021, the Energy Flow Chart shows the sources and uses of each form of energy. Including renewables.

The LLNL Sankey Diagram of total primary energy flows is my favorite illustration. This shows on one diagram the total energy sources and consumption. I think it is an easy to understand graphic that any reasonable person can understand. Thus, it is my favorite energy chart.

Three points are to be made with this chart: 1. America uses about 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy each year and that this has been steady for the last 20+ years. The year 2021 energy use dipped to 97.3 Quads because of Covid and reduced travel and industrial output. 2. The LLNL chart shows PRIMARY Energy Flows. The distiction of Primary and Secondary Energy needs to be understood. For example, electricity and hydrogen are forms of Secondary Energy 3. The most important point emphasized by this chart is that wind and solar only provided 4.96% of the U.S. Primary Energy. This after decades of subsidies and taxpayer funded incentives for wind and solar.

Each South Carolina citizen uses an average of 866,000 Btus per day. Each of us in the room live a slightly above average life style. Thus, I submit that each one of us uses over a million Btus of conventional energy each day. The slide above shows the forms that energy is used by each of us, or on our behalf. I say on our behalf considering for example, the Diesel fuel used to power a truck delivering an Amazon shipment to our home, or Jet Fuel for a Fedex air freight shipment. Also, many of us will travel to see friends and family over the Thanksgiving Holiday and vacations. Travel such as that uses much more than a million Btus/day/person when gasoline and jet fuel are considered. The number is derived from dividing the total primary energy BTUs used in the state by the population then divide by 365 days, to come up with the energy/person/day consumption. The information on the illustration below is compiled by the U.S. Department of Energy for SC residents.

This reminds me of one of the excellent questions asked at the end of my presentation. The question was, “If we each use about a million Btus per day, how much do they cost in dollars?”. Great question and the answer reminds us of how fortunate we are to be Americans! A million Btu’s of natural gas costs about $7.00/million Btu and a million Btus of Diesel fuel costs about $46.00/million Btus. Depending on our personal use of energy it will be somewhere in between. Coal energy is the least costly and before Covid was less than $3.00/million Btus. But, lately due to so many factors resulting from the government’s “War on Carbon”, delivered coal costs are about the same as natural gas. This is what the proponents for renewables want, higher costs of fossil fuels which then makes renewables more competitive by increasing the costs of the once affordable fuels. In my opinion, this is not a good strategy to keep America strong.

The Alaska pipeline was approved by Congress and built after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. It presents a vivid image of the amount of oil America depends on each day. The Alaska pipeline is above ground because of the Permafrost Tundra in northern Alaska. The above ground image provides a graphic illustration of a pipeline capable of transporting about two million barrels of oil per day. America uses about twenty million barrels per day of oil, so to illustrate that, imagine ten pipeleines like the one shown above, side by side. Yes, that is a lot of oil to be refined into gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, lubricating oil, grease and many other petroleum products. Not to mention the oil used in making plastics and other materials used for manufactured products of all types.

Total Primary energy production and use 1950-2020. I stated earlier that America has leveled off at about 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy each year. This chart by the EIA shows that from about the year 2000, the U.S. has used right at 100 Quadrillion Btus/year. Another point to make: Note that in 2019 it was the first year since about 1960 where America produced as much Domestic energy as we consumed. In other words, in 2019 America became energy Independent.

The total energy consumption since 1776 is shown on this chart. If you close your eyes and imagine the inventions from 1850 on such as the end of darkness with Edison’s development of the light bulb, the gasoline engine, the Diesel engine, steam turbines, airplanes, air conditioning, refrigeration, synthetic ammonia production from natural gas, plastics, steel, aluminum, airplanes and etc. All of these modern inventions, most developed during the 20th Century have provided a very high quality of life or as the United Nations quantifies it, “HDI” (Human Development Index”). The modern devices, including automobiles, airplanes and home appliances all depend on energy. Substituting muscle power for machines. As recent as 1900 farming was done with muscle power until tractors were invented and mass produced. Perhaps this is a good time to interject the fact that many of the eight billion people now living on this planet do not have the HDI that American’s enjoy.

The data above is a few years old as it shows the world population at 7.2 billion. Just this week the U.N. estimated that the world has now passed 8 billion in total population. It is my opinion that not much has changed in the percentages of people living below the energy and HDI levels of the Developed world. As shown on the chart, about half the world population lives well below our quality of life in energy poverty. The difference? Energy and Liberty. This is the season of Thanksgiving and all Americans have much to be thankful for. I know I am.

While Americans have much to be thankful for……There are some quirky and misguided organizations and people in government that do not understand the importance of conventional forms of energy. Some of these organizations and people are: the Sierra Club, Yale University, Stanford University, Princeton, many members of the Democrat Party, celebrities and the Entertainment Industry, the United Nations, the Main Stream Media, the World Economic Forum, Public Education the EPA and “Woke” corporations . They and others have waged a “War on Carbon” for decades and wealthy Billionaires such as Jeff Bezos and Michael Bloomberg have contributed hundreds of millions (together-Billions) of dollars to shut down coal plants and stop the use of fossil fuels. Their solution is to basically, “Electrify Everything”. The graphic above includes a couple screen prints from the Yale 360 and Sierra Club websites. They are not alone, many organizations and celebrities have taken up the “Green Energy” cause. What I am attempting to show in this presentation is, that everything cannot be electrified! How do you think the people living below the poverty line feel when diplomats and wealthy indivduals like John Kerry, Barack Obama, Gina McCarthy, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Jeff Bezos and others from the government and World Economic Forum, gather together after flying in their private jets half way around the world and then they lecture people living in Africa, Indonesia and India on how they should Decarbonize? One example is the importance of ammonia fertilizer production. This uses about 1.2% of the world’s energy and if ammonia fertilizer production was stopped, Vaclav Smil, an energy expert and author has estimated that half the people on the planet would perish from famine.

The 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy we Americans use each year cannot be replaced by wind and solar. It is impossible to do so and still continue our good quality of lives. Below is another couple figures from the U.S. Dept. of Energy which show where our electricity came from in 2021. Note that it is over 80% conventional. As far as carbon free electricity, the greatest source is nuclear power which provides almost 20% of America’s total electricity.

A reminder that Energy Independence is important not only to power our HDI but also for National Security. Both militarily and for economic security. If one does not believe energy is important for a sustainable and good life, then that person should read up on the current events in Europe and Ukraine with energy shortages. Read the news on BASF downsizing fertilizer production in Germany because of high energy costs and also other German industrial plants are being downsized or shut down. All older Americans should remember the Oil Embargo’s of 1973 and 1980. Taking the U.S. Oil Embargos and Russian war on Ukraine into consideration this should elevate the understanding of the importance of energy independence and affordable production of energy to sustain our lives. Also, those of us living on the coast remember how our lives changed when hurricanes like Mathew in 2016 knocked out electricity and stopped gasoline deliveries.

Electricity generation that is “Dispatchable” is important for reliable electric service. The 24 hour chart above shows typical electric Demand for a Utility. The red lines are summer with higher air conditioning load and the winter in blue. Whether summer or winter, electric load is greatest in the morning and late afternoon. The Demand at 5:00 PM will typically be about 150% to 200% of the Demand at 5:00 AM. This is because of increased commercial lighting, cooking for dinner, folks returning home from work and turning on TV, etc. As my first “Electricity 101” instructor put it in 1959, “Electricity Needs to be Generated the Instant it is Needed”.…This is called Dispatchable electricity generation.

The Current Grid example above shows electricity generation for the 48 states of the U.S.A. This example is from October 2021 but it was similar for 2022. The cycling lines representing natural gas power illustrate the electric load Demand swings from daytime to night-time. The variations are similar but less extreme for coal and hydro. These four sources of electric generation are Dispatchable. Over 80% of the generation for the 48 states up till now, is from Dispatchable generation. Solar and wind are Not Dispatchable. So, as in California a year or two ago, as people came home from work, started cooking dinner, charged their EV’s and turned on TV’s…..the Demand for electricity exceeded the available supply and rolling Blackouts occurred. Texas in the winter of February 2021 had a similar experience. Both Blackout events were the result of too much intermittent power generation from wind and solar with too many Dispatchable coal and nuclear plants having been shut down in the last few years.

The graphic above is from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator known as MISO. Actual data from July 2022. The point is to show the generation by fuels which includes 41.85% coal. Many of these coal plants are planned to be shut down in the coming years, without planning replacement generation fron Dispatchable sources. (This is an absence of a Rational Energy Policy)

The chart above is from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation known in the indstry as NERC. As is shown, about 102,600 MW of Dispatchable, afffordable coal and nuclear electric generating capacity has been shut down since 2011. More shut downs are planned for the next couple of years.

For people like myself that have been involved with energy and electricity generation for decades, it just seems foolish and ill planned. I started digging a year or two ago to attempt to determine why America has no energy policy to replace the coal and nuclear plants that have been shutdown with more to follow? The answer is that America’s energy policy is driven by environmental extremists that know little about energy and electricity generation and seem to not care about the consequences and weakening of America. Some of these organizations are shown below.

The public Indoctrination has been highly successful in indoctrinating the general public believe that green power can replace coal, gas, oil and nuclear energy. It cannot if we are to continue to enjoy our high HDI style of living.

Another RTO (Regional Transmission Operator) is the PJM Interconnection. This RTO serves as the electric power equivalent of an “Air Traffic Controller” to distribute the power genaration to the least cost electric generating plants between NJ and Illinois. A huge portion of the Northeastern states. Like MISO, much of the pwer generation this summer was from coal plants. Like MISO, many of the Dispatchable coal plants are planned for shut down in the near future. Until then neeeded preventive maintenance is not the same as if they were valued assets to be depended on for decades into the future. Also, there are no plans to replace the lost generation with new coal or nuclear units, at least, not yet.

As a side note, when RTO’s were formed, rather than having Regional Utilities plan for future Generation, it relieved the Regional Utilities of responsibility to plan future generation assets. Thus, when we get to Blackouts because of poor planning, no one will be held accountable. It is bizarre for our great country to come to this.

Let’s talk about South Carolina and where we get our electricity.

Over 56% of SC electric generation is from nuclear power generation. SC ranks #3 in the U.S.

Here on Hilton Head Island our electricity is distributed by Palmetto Electric Co-Op. Palmetto Electric receives most of their Bulk Power from Santee-Cooper. The generation assets of Santee-Cooper are shown on the chart above. In the lower right inset, is shown the Summer Nuclear Plant which is operated by Dominion Energy. Santee-Cooper owns 322 MW of the nuclear generation capacity of Summer Unit #1. Two additional nuclear units were planned when SCE&G was the owner but mismanagement resulted in quitting the construction process after spending about nine Billion dollars on the expansion. Had it been successful, it would have been a good plan for carbon free electric generation capacity. Currently, most of Santee-Cooper’s power generation is from the Cross and Winyah coal power plants. As can be seen from the Santee-Cooper table above of electricity generation assets, over 67% of them are coal plants. The Cross Steam plant is about 130 miles north of Hilton Head in Pineville, SC. This plant is rated at 2,350 MW. Just to put that in perspective, the Cross coal plant is close to the same size as the American side Hydroelectric plant at Niagara Falls. This is serious Bulk Power generation capacity.

The Santee-Cooper utility also owns the 3.5 MW rated Solar Farm off of I-95 near Walterboro. Again, referring to the generation assets of Santee-Cooper, the solar capacity is about 0.1% of the total.

The solar collectors are not Dispatchable and obviously only can generate power only about 4-8 hours during the sunny portion of a 24 hour period. Also considered “Green Power” and can function 24/7 is the Landfill Gas plants that Santee-Cooper operates. These capture and use the methane gas which is produced from the decomposition of the organic materials in municipal waste.

Santee-Cooper management recognized the electricity Demand growth of the future. As mentioned above, they correctly planned for the needed increase of new generation capacity by a 45% joint ownership of the Summer Units 2 & 3 nuclear units. Also, Santee-Cooper approved the design and construction of a new 600 MW clean coal plant near Florence, SC. The components for this plant were designed and purchased. However, extreme opposition from environmental extremist organizations forced it to be cancelled. As I understand it, The large Central Electric Co-Operative in upstate S.C. negotiated a power purchase agreement with Duke Energy to purchase excess Bulk Power generation from Duke’s nuclear plants. This agreement provided excellent low cost Bulk power up to about 2030. After 2030 the contract will need to be renegotiated. Also, in 2030 the Oconee #1 nuclear power plant operating license will need to be extended by the NRC. (Nuclear Regulatory Commission)

The chart below is from the Santee-Cooper projection of electricity growth from 2020 through 2040. As can be seen from the chart, the 1,045 MW Winyah coal plant is planned for shut down in 2028. The difference between the expected growth to over 6,000 MW by about 2035 could have easily been made up for, were the Pee Dee coal plant and one of the planned additional units at Summer been completed. As this is written, Santee-Cooper and their stakeholders are working to figure out where to secure the replacement generation to replace the 1045 MW’s in capacity that will be lost when the Winyah plant is shut down. From what I have read, the most likely approval will be solar, batteries for backup and when all that is inadequate, they will install more Gas Turbine Combined Cycle units. Time will tell.

Based on the foregoing and a lot of additional information, some of which is included in the references at the end, I have formed my conclusions….

Thank you for this opportunity to be part of your program tonight. I sincerely appreciate your interest in energy and electricity. Feel free to contact me should you have any further questions,

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, Monday November 14, 2022

Energy equivalents and other information relevant to this presentation is copied below. Further references and information for further reading are listed following these conversions:

Energy Units and Conversions The data and information which follows is listed for reference and further reading.

1 Watt is the power from a current of 1 Ampere flowing through 1 Volt 
1 kilowatt (kW) is a thousand Watts

1 kilowatt-hour is the energy of one kilowatt power flowing for one hour. (E = P t)

A BTU (British Thermal Unit) is the amount of heat necessary to raise one pound of water by 1 degree Fahrenheit (F). 

1 Megawatt (MW) is a thousand kilowatts  (if Dispatchable power, up to 164 homes)

Hilton Head Island uses about 150-200 MW on a hot summer day

1 Gigawatt (GW) is a thousand Megawatts

1 kWh=3,412.6 BTUs (if converted at 100% efficiency)

1 BTU to convert to work at 100% efficiency= 778 Foot Pounds

1 Quadrillion = 1015 BTU  (World energy usage is about 600 Quads/year, US is about 100 Quads/year since 1996) 

Important Points on the use of Hydrogen (Secondary Energy)  as Fuel: 

Conversion by Electrolyzer of water to Hydrogen, takes about 50 kWh/pound of hydrogen (39 kW/pound is at 100% efficiency)

Electrolyzer produced electricity back to electricity = 26-30% round trip

It takes 9 pounds of water to create 1 pound of hydrogen

Hydrogen Energy from 1 cubic foot=325 BTUs, Methane CH= 1,030 BTUs Hydrogen has less Energy Density

Liquified Hydrogen is -423 Degrees F.  (Liquifying is at cost of of about 30% of the energy available from the Liquid Hydrogen Fuel itself)

Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is  -260 Degrees F.

Power Conversion

1 horsepower (hp) = 745.7 watts

I Air Conditioning Ton approx. 1 kWh

Gas Volume to Energy Conversion

One thousand cubic feet of natural gas (Mcf) -> 1.027 million BTU 

Energy Content of Fuels

Coal     (Bituminous)             10,500- 12,500 BTU/pound               (Recent cost $15.00/million BTUs, Cost in 2019 about $2.50/million Btus)

Coal (Wyoming PRB)             8,000-9000 BTU/pound
Natural gas (Methane CH4) 1,030 BTU/cubic foot                        (Recent cost $7.00/million BTUs)
Wood                                       8,200-9,600  Btus/pound

Hydrogen                             51,600 BTUs/pound (LHV)                (Recent cost $17.00+/million BTUs If you can find it)

Approximate Fuel Energy Content/million BTU 

Gasoline                       115,400-125,000 BTU/gallon                 (at $3.50/gallon= $30.00/million BTUs)

Gasoline E10                 114,300 BTU/gallon

Diesel                           128,700-135,000 BTU/gallon                 (at $6.00/gallon= $46.62/million BTUs)

Ethanol (E100)                75,700 BTU/gallon

Propane                          83,500 BTU/gallon

References for further research on Energy and Climate Policies:

  1. Reuters, Oct. 25, 2022, Dr. Faith Birol of IEA states, “This is the World’s First Global Energy Crisis”: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-lng-markets-further-tighten-next-year-ieas-birol-2022-10-25/
  2. Energy is Life by Dr. Samuele Furfari, Oct 17, 2022: https://blog-friendsofscience-org.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/blog.friendsofscience.org/2022/10/17/energy-in-addition-to-the-security-challenge-now-the-safety-challenge/amp/
  3. 97% CONSENSUS ON CLIMATE CHANGE? SURVEY SHOWS ONLY 59% OF SCIENTISTS EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HARM:

https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/97-consensus-on-climate-change-survey-shows-only-59-of-scientists-expect-significant-harm

4. Blackouts Threaten New England Again, Donn dears Blog :  https://ddears.com/2022/10/25/blackouts-threaten-new-england-again/

5. Dick Storm Blog, November 2022, “Electric Generation Planning, Then and Now”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/11/10/electric-generation-planning-then-and-now-what-will-be-the-monuments-to-poor-planning-in-2024/

6. Dr. Steven Koonin on Catastrophic Climate Change:  https://www.prageru.com/video/is-there-really-a-climate-emergency?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=campaign_5331670

7. Donn Dears Politics of Energy Part 1 (Largest energy reserves): https://bit.ly/3J5OnTc

8. North American Electric Reliability Corp., Long Term Reliability study: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2021.pdf

9. SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project): http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm  

10. Mark Mills, Prager University, On Energy: https://www.youtube.com/embed/wDOI-uLvTnY

11. Dick Storm Short Link, Elitists & Special Interests Govern Climate Policies: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/11/03/glasgow-cop-26-elitists-and-special-interests-promote-china-first-america-last-why-because-energy-savvy-engineers-were-not-successful-in-educating-the-public-and-politicians-on-the-true-facts/

12. Americans use about a Million Btu’s per day per person to sustain our economy & quality of life: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/05/17/providing-a-sustainable-million-btus-per-day-per-person-by-fuel-source/

13. Donn Dears Article on Net-Zero Carbon Reality Conclusions:  https://bit.ly/38ZVjDZ

14. The Right Stuff Climate Team (Retired NASA Engineers): https://www.therightclimatestuff.com

15. The Energy Crisis will Worsen, Daniel Yergin, July 11, 2022: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/energy-crisis-will-deepen-no-supply-by-daniel-yergin-2022-07

16. Nuclear Energy Institute, Area required for wind, dwarfs land needed for nuclear power: NEI Land Area Required for Wind and Solar to replace a 1000 MW Nuclear Plant: https://www.nei.org/news/2015/land-needs-for-wind-solar-dwarf-nuclear-plants

17. World Nuclear Organization: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx

 18. Real Time US Power Grid link to EIA: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/US48/US48

19. No, we cannot electrify everything, Capital Research, December 2021 issue: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf

20. Michael Schellenberger article on German experience of “Green Power”: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/?sh=6da16be6ea2b

21. CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH CENTER REPORT, An excellent primer on energy with outstanding illustrations:https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46723

22. American Public Power Assoc. Electric Generation by Sources, 2022: https://www.publicpower.org/resource/americas-electricity-generating-capacity

23. International Energy Agency, How the Energy Crisis is Exacerbating the Food Crisis, June 2022: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis

24. Vaclav Smil, Scientist Interview on “How the World Really Works” by New York Times, April 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/04/25/magazine/vaclav-smil-interview.html

25. Vaclav Smil Books: “Power Density”, “How the World Really Works”, “Energy and Civilization”, “Grand Transitions” and more. He has written about 40 books, most based on the importance of energy.

26. POWER Magazine, Sonal Patel, Sept 9, 2022, EPA Rules likely to shut down about 86 GW of coal generation in next few years: https://www.powermag.com/group-epas-coordinated-regulatory-assault-on-coal-power-could-push-retirements-beyond-86-gw-by-2030/?oly_enc_id=3247D5884312C9W

27. EIA Coal to Nuclear Report, Sept. 2022: https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/could-nations-coal-plant-sites-help-drive-clean-energy-transition

28. You Tube, “How Much Energy Will the World Need”: https://www.youtube.com/embed/wDOI-uLvTnY

29. Dr. Nicolas Kokell, Sources of Primary Energy :  https://portfolio-pplus.com/Communicator/Details_Article/1023

30. Professor Furfari article Sept. 2022, Hopeless European Green new Deal: https://clintel.org/the-many-hopeless-european-climate-change-laws/

31. Bloomberg, China to Build 150 new nuclear plants, valued about $440 Billion. November 2021: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s#xj4y7vzkg

32. IEA Energy Costs to Produce Food, June 2022: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis

33. WSJ May 8, 2022, Power Plants Struggling With Electricity Shortages to Keep Power on: https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=0&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s  

34. WSJ June 18, 2022, West Risks Blackouts From Drought and loss of Hydroelectric Capacity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/west-risks-blackouts-as-hydroelectric-power-dries-up-11624008601?mod=article_inline  

35. WSJ, Opinion, May 27, 2022, Jason Hayes, “Why Blackouts are Coming to Michigan” Regarding shutdown of Palisades Nuclear Generating Plant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-electricity-blackouts-are-coming-to-michigan-nuclear-power-plant-green-energy-renewable-climate-11653685521?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=5&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s

36. NERC Warning of Blackout Risk: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/north-american-electric-reliability-corp-warns-of-increased-risk-of-grid-blackouts-this-summer/

37. The Guradian (UK) China’s Premier Calls For More Coal Plants, June 24, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/24/chinese-premier-calls-for-more-coal-production-as-electricity-demand-soars  

38. Global Food Supply at Risk Due to High Energy Prices, The Guardian, June 25, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/25/our-global-food-supply-is-at-risk-when-high-gas-prices-limit-the-creation-of-fertiliser

39. US and World Coal Reserves Map: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Coal-reserves-volumes-by-countries-of-the-world-3_fig1_328037099

40. EIA 2nd reference on World Coal Reserves, EIA 2011: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=2930

41. American Geosciences institute, World Coal Reserves: https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/maps/interactive-map-coal-resources-united-states

42. EIA Total Energy Use 1950-2020: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43515

43. St. Louis Fed. Renewable Power Increases have reduced Conventional Power Generation Capacity Factors, thus weakening cash flow for O&M and improvements: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/10/renewables-have-increased-the-capacity-for-electricity-production/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

44. Fact Check on Wind Power Cost: https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/does-wind-work-without-subsidies/

45. Forbes, Michael Schellenberger article on True Cost of Wind Power: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/04/20/why-renewables-cause-blackouts-and-increase-vulnerability-to-extreme-weather/?sh=6400daf54e75  

46. EPA Retains Tools to Harm Coal Power Production, Utility Dive, July 1, 2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/supreme-court-epa-GHG-carbon-power-plant/626456/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-07-01%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:42837%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive

47. VOX, Electrify Everything! : https://www.vox.com/2016/9/19/12938086/electrify-everything

48. Stanford, Mark Jacobson, Net Zero Carbon by 2050 : https://news.stanford.edu/2015/06/08/50states-renewable-energy-060815/

Jacobson’s website: https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html

49. UN Net Zero Carbon website: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition  

 50. Princeton University Net Zero Carbon Plan: Net Zero Carbon Project Princeton University Researchers, Jenkins et al: https://cmi.princeton.edu/annual-meetings/annual-reports/year-2019/the-net-zero-america-project-finding-pathways-to-a-carbon-neutral-future/

51. Cornell Daily Sun, Speaker discusses Coal Plants in a Death Spiral: https://cornellsun.com/2016/10/03/keynote-speaker-investigates-recent-transformations-in-the-energy-grid/

52. WSJ Australia Warning on Green Energy Risks:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-warning-from-australias-power-crisis-green-energy-anthony-albanese-11655659465?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=3&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s

53. National Coal Council, Enhanced Oil Recovery using C02 from Coal Plants, 2012: http://www.nationalcoalcouncil.org/reports/07-10-12-NCC_Harnessing_Coals_Carbon_Content_to_Advance_Economy_Environment_EnergySecurity.pdf

54. Detroit News, Consumers Energy to End Coal Use in 2025: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2022/06/23/michigan-panel-approves-consumers-energy-plan-end-coal-use-2025/7716918001/

55. Alliant and WEC Change Plans to Retire Coal to Meet Demand, June 22, 2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wisconsin-utilities-coal-retirement-miso-delay/626005/

56. The Permian Basin, The Gift of An Almost Permanent Supply of Oil at 2.5 million barrels/day, Sept 2022: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/04/the-permian-basin-the-gift-that-keeps-on-giving/

57. Liberty Energy, “Bettering Human Lives, ESG Report” August 2022: https://investors.libertyfrac.com/press-releases/2022/08-02-2022-222014779

58. Donn Dears Blog on Electric Vehicles and Lithium Batteries: https://bit.ly/3RDXOfB

59. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022:  https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf

60. IEA World Energy Outlook Reports: https://www.iea.org/topics/world-energy-outlook#reports

61. EIA (U.S. Dept. of Energy) Annual Energy Outlook: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/

62. China, Keeping Coal King, Bloomberg: https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iBjpZ.bmbits/v0/-1x-1.png

63. Coal is King in China, Bloomberg: https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i3CKBFPaA7g0/v0/-1x-1.png

64. China Climate Advisers Say More Coal Needed for Energy Security, Bloomberg, Nov. 15, 2022:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/china-climate-advisers-say-more-coal-needed-for-energy-security?mc_cid=72c8bf23a3&mc_eid=dddcf9dc32&leadSource=uverify%20wall

65. Facts on EV Charging by EVESCO, Good explanation of electrical Demand for EV Charging: https://www.power-sonic.com/blog/levels-of-ev-charging/

66. EIA Electricity Generation Facts, 2021: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php

67. Mark Mills, Prager Univ. Myths of Green Energy, Nov. 2022: https://twitter.com/prageru/status/1589634529253261312

68. Competitive Enterprise Institute, Fifty Years of Wrong Predictions, 2019: https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions/

I hope these references are useful to you to discover facts and information that are not readily discussed by the Main Stream Media.

Yours very truly,

Richard F. (Dick) Storm, PE

Richard.storm@stormeng.com

Electric Generation Planning, Then and Now. What Will Be The Monuments to Poor Planning in 2024?

The U.S. has No Energy Policy in 2022. Only a Decarbonization Policy without a Rational plan to achieve a low carbon Energy supply. Keep in mind, Energy is needed for not only electricity generation, but also for Transportation, Industrial production, Commercial and Residential uses. Currently, about 87% of our total primary energy is provided by conventional sources of natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydroelectric. Wind and Solar provided less than 5% of total Primary Energy in 2021. Yet, there are many influential groups calling for policies to “Electrify Everything”.

Let me digress and quote a highly respected Utility Engineering Manager from the 1970’s. That man is Mendall H. Long, a member of the Greatest Generation who after graduation from NCSU served as the youngest Chief Engineer of the Standard Oil Fleet during WWII. After the war he joined Carolina Power & Light and rapidly rose through the ranks from shift supervisor to Manager of Fossil Plant Engineering. Me and many others loved that man for both his engineering skills as well as his wisdom and leadership. In the 1970’s CP&L and Duke Power’s electricity growth was almost 10% per year with growing industrial load and wide use of residential heat pumps. At CP&L which then was a 4,000 MW regional utility, the Asheville Unit #2 (200MW) was built about 1970, then the 700 MW H.B. Robinson nuclear plant about 1971, 420 MW Sutton #3 in 1972 and the 720 MW Roxboro #3 started up in June 1973. Except for Robinson, all were coal plants and needed to satisfy load growth. That was when Utilities planned for electric load growth and added generation based on projections of future demand. The four new units built between 1970 and 1973 above totaled 2,040 MW and the total peak generation was in the range of 4,000 MW. The quote from Mr. Long that I remember as he motioned toward some Internal Combustion gas turbines that were built for peaking and backup of the large new coal plants, “Those are Monuments to Poor Planning”. So, I wonder what the “Monuments to Poor Planning will be in 2024? I worked with (both as a Riley startup engineer and as an engineer employed by CP&L) and for CP&L during those years and the information provided is from my personal experiences and memory.

Lets take a look at what a Rational plan would be to add generation in anticipation of future Demand. In fact, lets take my adopted state of South Carolina as an example.

South Carolina Electricity Generation Planning 2006-2016

Before I retired from full time employment, I participated in consulting, testing, trouble shooting and design of performance improvements for coal power plants at South Carolina Electric and Gas and Santee-Cooper power plants (as well as many other utilities). During this process I got to know and respect a number of senior managers at these Utilities. One such senior manager was Mr. Bill McCall of Santee-Cooper. I remember one technical conference where Mr. McCall gave a presentation on Santee-Cooper’s load growth from both electricity intensive Industrial plants within the Santee-Cooper service territory, such as Alumax (now Century Aluminum) and Nucor Steel and the rapid growth of housing (like NC in the 1970’s) and commercial enterprises along the coast north and south of Myrtle Beach. Mr. McCall went on to describe how electric demand was growing at unprecedented levels, and it was. He went on to show the need for building the two additional coal units at the Cross Generating Station, increasing the generation capacity of that plant to 2,340 MW and the need for the proposed 600 MW Pee Dee Generation Plant. Then there was the joint effort/ownership of SCE&G and Santee-Cooper to build the two additional nuclear units at Summer Station in Jenkinsville, SC. The significant dates of new units built or planned to be built during this period is shown below:

1984 Santee-Cooper Electric Generation Peak exceeds 5,000 MW

1984 Cross Generating Station Is Commissioned

1995 Cross Unit #2 Becomes Commercial

1999 800 MW Rainy Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Plant Approved for Construction

2004 Two 600 MW Cross Units #3&4 Construction in progress

2004 600 MW Pee Dee Energy Campus is approved by Santee-Cooper Board for construction

2007 New Peak Demand record set at 5,563 MW’s, Cross Unit #3 begins commercial operation

2008 SCE&G and Santee-Cooper File appliction for Summer Unit #3 Nuclear Unit (1,100 MW)

2011 NRC approves second Summer Nuclear Unit for a total expansion of 2,200 MW of new nuclear power generation capacity. This is shared capacity of SCE&G and Santee-Cooper with Santee-Cooper having a 45% ownership share. Now, the foregoing new plants to be added from 2007 on would seem to be a good plan for growth. It was until two major problems: 1. The 600 MW Pee Dee Energy Campus was cancelled in 2009 due largely to outside interference and agitation from environmental extremist groups and 2. Mismanagement of construction of the two nuclear units at Summer by SCE&G. A Rational Plan for new generation capacity of Dispatchable coal and nuclear generation capacity was scrapped. Now, there are continuing and increasing public and government pressures to install only wind and solar and to shut down existing coal plants as soon as possible. The 1,045 MW Winyah coal plant is planned to be shut down in 2028. But, at this writing there is no definite plan (that I am aware) to replace the 1,045 MW of coal generation. The illustration below is from Santee-Cooper’s IRP presentation.

When I first became associated with Santee-Cooper in 1971 as one of the test engineers performing acceptance testing at the Jefferies Coal plant in Moncks Corner, the system peak load was about 3,000 MW. Since then as can be seen from the projections to the future, Santee-Cooper’s service territory will grow to over 6,000 MW by 2037. This is natural growth without the MSM and government screaming, “Electrify Everything”!

Who is Accountable for Poor Planning?

In my opinion, there are multiple reasons and organizations that have brought our country to the absense of proper generation planning. Nine major contributors to “Poor Planning” are the U.N.-IPCC, the World Economic Forum, the Main Stream Media, Public Indoctrination by Politicians that follow the “Green Religion”, the U.S. Democrat Party, Environmental Extremist Organizations, Billionaire activists such as Bezos and Bloomberg and Public School Indoctrination of Green Policies and “Woke” corporations. I presented my views to the ENERUM Energy Forum in Columbus in August of this year. One slide I used is copied below:

On a national level, the slide covers many of the major players that have thrown a monkey wrench into generation planning, as it was once done by responsible regional utilities. Now, with the emphasis on interconnecting all Utilities with Regional Transmission Operators and a Federal War on Carbon, there is No Rational Energy Policy. Only a policy to attempt to kill coal and gas plants. It is un-American. My respected and Patriotic engineering manager friend Mr. Long would be screaming from his grave if he knew the madness that has taken over in the U.S. Oh, how I miss gutsy and knowledgeable managers like Mendall Long!

Getting back to S.C. and the lack of planning here. Here are a couple newspaper reports regarding the cancellation of the Pee Dee Coal plant and the Summer units 2&3 nuclear plant.

Conclusions

  1. America did better generation planning in the 1970’s than we do now. In spite of the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, America’s electricity remained reliable, was affordable and it fueled great economic growth 1970-2020.
  2. There is no energy policy today. The “Electrify Everything” policy promoted by many here and in Eurpope is based on the myth that wind and solar can provide sufficient power. It can’t. Many promoting this myth should know better!
  3. The Regional Transmission Operators such as MISO, PJM and ERCOT combined with economic incentives for wind and solar have made the Grid fragile and less Resilient.
  4. The Environmental Extremists have made policies to shut down vital coal plants that will contribute to unreliable electricity generation.
  5. The EPA and government is run by environmental extremists that escape accountability for the actions and harm they are causing.
  6. Europe is an example our elected officials could look too to observe the costs and harm that extreme green policies can cause.
  7. Meanwhile, China is growing their economy and is on track to become the world’s largest economy passing the U.S.A. and doing so with massive amounts of coal power.

In closing let me ask you, what do you think the Monuments to Poor Planning will be in 2024?

Respectfully and yours truly,

Dick Storm, November 10, 2022

American Energy Independence With a Rational Energy Policy is Needed Now!

America and all Developed countries require Energy to power our lives and our economy. It is time (for the government, energy savvy citizens already know this) to face the facts and reality that nearly 90% of the energy America depends on, including for our Defense of National Security, is sourced from conventional fuels or sources of natural gas, nuclear, oil, coal and old hydropower generation. Wind and Solar cannot replace these forms of energy and the path to Net-Zero Carbon will weaken our country. A Rational Energy Transition is needed over the next few decades. As a reminder, the Sankey Diagram below shows the total primary energy flows by sources and flow for all of 2021 forms of energy . Note that less than 5% of the primary energy provided to the U.S. was from wind and solar.

The two key words are PRIMARY ENERGY! As a couple people have asked me on EV’s…..”You mean the electricity has to be generated somewhere else to charge an electric vehicle?”

Yes, over 89% of the PRIMARY ENERGY we use is from conventional sources of Petroleum, Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear and Hydroelectric and yes, electricity to charge an EV likely came from conventional sources.

I have met with numerous groups to discuss our energy future and every time I outline the current government path to Net-Zero Carbon the people I talk with are shocked that there is not a planned transition to reduced carbon emissions and sustaining a reliable, affordable energy supply. Why? I believe it is because those that are knowledgeable in all forms of primary energy production are a small minority. Similar for secondary energy production, such as for producing electricity and hydrogen. I estimate that the people who thoroughly understand energy production is less than 5% of American (and the world) citizens. Smooth talking non-energy savvy politicians, the United Nations, the Main Stream Media, World Economic Forum and Public Education have Hoodwinked the Public into Demonizing carbon and preaching and legislating Green Power incentives. These powerful innfluencers have forced wind and solar Green Energy Religion on Americans. It is not possible to switch all of America or the rest of the Free World to Renewable wind and solar energy. It is possible to have a smooth transition to increase carbon free nuclear power and nuclear power produced hydrogen over the next three decades, but not by 2030 or 2035 as is proclaimed by the Biden Administration. America has no energy policy, only a policy of demonizing carbon and forcing the citizens to depend on unreliable, intermittent wind and solar.

Energy Misinformation is World-Wide

My friend Vincent who lives in France has sent me dozens of informative documents on energy. One document he sent yesterday caught my attention. It is the opening introduction of Professor Samuel Furfari’s article published on the Friends of Science Blog of Calgary University. I will quote Professor Furfari as he captures what I believe to be true as well. Furfari is referring to Europe, but much of what he states is applicable all over the Free World:

Energy is life. Without energy, we could not live. That is why our distant ancestors adopted, then invented ways to create fire. The use of energy is essential for life: animals and human beings eat because their bodies need energy. Moreover, energy is also the blood that runs through the veins of the economic system. In recent years, instead of seeing energy as a vital commodity, environmental activists have succeeded in reversing the logic by blaming energy for all the planet’s ills, to the point where energy is no longer spoken of in negative terms. Energy has become the symbol of pollution and climate catastrophe. A few days ago, at the end of a lecture, a student confessed to me that he had been shaken because I had shown, with data, that the quality of life measured by the UN HDI index and life expectancy at birth depended on per capita energy consumption. This correlation is also valid with CO2 emissions since 82% of the energy used in the world is fossil fuel. He had never thought about it. No one had ever told him that.” Furfari continues….

“Will the current crisis be enough to bring us back to the common sense of the absolute priority of having abundant and cheap energy, as the founders of the EU said in the past? This is not certain, as the population has been so indoctrinated with negative and even catastrophic messages. But if the current crisis was to last and worsen, climate policies could face fierce opposition from the population, since it is true that the population cannot do without abundant and cheap energy, as the current panic demonstrates. Thanks to the development of technology and our energy resources (North Sea hydrocarbons and nuclear energy), the EU was able to escape the oil crises of the 1970s. The energy terrorism that may develop in the near future will have much more far-reaching consequences, as the EU is now much more dependent on energy consumption than it was fifty years ago.”

The foregoing is from a European viewpoint. My opinion/commentary now continues:

We Cannot Electrify Everything!

It is not even possible to install enough wind turbines and solar collectors across the U.S. to “Electrify Everything”. Further, we cannot electricfy everything and still sustain our high quality of living. For such products/materials as fertilizer, ammonia, food production energy, plastics, cement manufacture and steel manufacture. So what would a Rational Energy Policy look like? Here is my shot at offering one:

A RATIONAL ENERGY PLAN

Here is what a Rational Energy Plan would look like:

  1. Maintain Existing Coal & Nuclear Plants as If they will Run for 20 more years….because… we will likely need them.
  2. Reduce Federal Regulations on Oil, Gas, Coal production and all hard rock Mining within the U.S.A.
  3. Reduce Regulations and build more Refinery Capacity
  4. Approve Keystone and other Pipelines for Construction
  5. Reduce Federal Regulations on Coal Plant Emissions to levels in effect in 2020 (except CO2 restrictions that were later vacated by SCOTUS)
  6. Build New HELE Coal Plants, Equipped with Provisions for Future CCUS     (HELE=High Efficiency Low Emissions)
  7. Continue R & D for Energy Storage and Hydrogen Production
  8. Increase Hydrogen Distribution Infrastructure
  9. Keep Options of Continuing Internal Combustion Engines Beyond 2035 for those citizens that prefer Internal Combustion Engines
  10. Expand Oil & Gas Infrastructure to meet next 30 year Demand
  11. Increase the pace for designing, NRC Approvals, manufacturing and construction of new Small Modular Nuclear Reactors to be built all across the U.S.A. to replace the 102,000 MW’s of reliable, Dispatchable electric power production capacity that has been shut down since 2010.

Summary and Conclusions

When America’s economy and our productive capacity are restored, it will be with the result of reduced Federal Regulations and increased Domestic Energy production. To sustain life as we know it, each American on average needs about one million BTUs of energy equivalence each day. This includes energy for electricity generation, transportation, Industrial production, National Defense, commercial and residential uses. Over 90% of that energy is sourced from conventional sources of natural gas, oil, coal and nuclear. These numbers are substantiated by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sankey Diagram I placed as the first illustration. Yes, it shows 95% of the primary energy America runs on is from conventional forms of energy. It is Energy Fiction to believe that the conventional forms we use and depend on now can be provided by wind and solar as the Biden Administration and Congress have advocated. (I suppose we could add to this list of indoctrinators: the United Nations, World Economic Forum, Environmental Extremist groups, the MSM, U.S. Public Education and Woke corporations)

If the Biden Administration and Congress do not create a Rational Energy Policy as I have outlined above, then America’s Infuence in the World and our Economy will go into an ever increasing decline. As outlined by Professor Samuel Furfari, the same is true for Europe. “Energy is Life, Without Energy we cannot live”.

The Developed World runs on energy and America has the natural resources to regain Energy Independence.

Dick Storm, October 12, 2022

Quote of the Week: 
“Wherever the real power in a Government lies, there is the danger of oppression.” —James Madison (1788)
Ken Haapala President of SEPP

References and Additional Reading materials:

  1. Energy is Life by Samuel Furfari, Oct 17, 2022: https://blog-friendsofscience-org.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/blog.friendsofscience.org/2022/10/17/energy-in-addition-to-the-security-challenge-now-the-safety-challenge/amp/
  2. The changing world of energy and the geopolitical challenges”. Samuele Furfari’s latest book is “The hydrogen illusion”.
  3. Europe’s Energy Crisis Was Created by Politics: https://mises.org/wire/europes-energy-crisis-was-created-political-intervention
  4. WSJ-Nord Stream Blasts Likely Sabotage, German Probe Finds, October 17, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-blasts-were-likely-result-of-sabotage-german-probe-finds-11666016047?mod=mhp
  5. WSJ-Winter’s Approach Raises Stakes in European Energy Crisis, Oct 16, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/winters-approach-raises-stakes-in-european-energy-crisis-11665926245?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
  6. Alex Epstein substack, October 2022, How a Fake Climate Emergency Created a True Energy Crisis: https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/how-a-fake-climate-emergency-created?utm_source=email
  7. No, Melting Greenland Ice is Not About to Swamp Coastal Areas, H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute: : https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/no-melting-greenland-ice-is-not-about-to-swamp-coastal-areas
  8. Is Global Warming the Cause of Ian? The evidence says NO! Watts UpWith That: October 16, 2022: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/16/is-global-warming-responsible-for-hurricane-ian-the-evidence-says-no/ For references use this link.
  9. States to Ban Gas Cars Despite the Human and Environmental Cost, Epoch Times, September 26, 2022:   https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/states-to-ban-gas-powered-cars-despite-human-and-environmental-cost-of-electric-vehicles_4726635.html?utm_campaign=app-cc&utm_source=ref_share
  10. Sea Level Rise Jumpy After Last Ice Age, WUWT:
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/01/sea-level-rise-jumpy-after-last-ice-age/
  11. The Week that Was by the Science and Environmental Policy Project, Edited by Ken Haapala, President: http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm
  12. Net Zero=Pro China, Pro Russia, Science Matters, Ron Clutz, October 2022: https://rclutz.com/2022/10/13/net-zero-pro-china-pro-russia/#like-27736
  13. Net Zero Watch, October 2022: https://mailchi.mp/dca1b92c985c/us-banks-threaten-to-withdraw-from-net-zero-alliance-191791?e=9e46528ac6
  14. Liberty Energy, Bettering Human Lives Report August 2022: https://www.libertyenergy.com/betteringhumanlivesv2/
  15. Donn Dears Politics of Energy Part 1 (Largest energy reserves): https://bit.ly/3J5OnTc 
  16. Donn Dears, Politics of Energy Part 2 :  https://bit.ly/3QuEuRs
  17. Donn Dears Politics of Energy Part 3: 
  18. Donn Dears, Destroying Energy Security Part 1 (SEC and ESG reporting):  https://bit.ly/3C1a5Xd 
  19. Donn Dears, Destroying Energy Security Part 2: https://bit.ly/3JVGWyD
  20. Donn Dears, Destroying Energy Security, Part 3: https://bit.ly/3A8cvRl
  21.  Donn Dears, China’s Coal-Fired Plants Dominate:  http://bit.ly/3RL6PEJ
  22. Donn Dears, Europe’s Rendezvous with Destiny: https://bit.ly/3caBprb 
  23. Donn Dears, IPCC Report, Part 1: https://bit.ly/3Aeruea
  24. Donn Dears, IPCC Report, Part 2: https://bit.ly/3AqFm53 
  25. CO2 Coalition Facts: https://co2coalition.org/facts/
  26. Competitive Enterprise Institute, Cooler Heads Website: https://go.cei.org/webmail/287682/949316776/68e507be334cf34c7d54b4b2a348b50f1d373ec69c94d0d629001f91129chttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-global-crisis-of-climate-policy-europe-germany-energy-prices-bankruptcy-winter-subsidies-borrowing-green-nuclear-116626510701e7d

Energy =Life, That is, Life as We Enjoy it

On a pro-rated basis, each American uses about 300 million Btus per year of primary energy. This has been steady for decades. 79% of the energy we depend on each day is from fossil fuels and another 8% from nuclear, thus if we include nuclear as conventional, then 87% of the energy we depend on is from Conventional fuels.

300 million Btu/year/Person

I have written before about the energy use per person for U.S. citizens being between 300 and 330 million Btus per year. The latest EIA Monthly Energy Report shows 293 million Btus per capita. I rounded up to 300 million Btus /Capita/year. When the recession is over, we will again exceed 300.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf

Most of this energy which we depend on for everything we do, is provided by conventional energy. The latest pie chart of primary energy sources from the EIA is shown below.

Many government officials contend that the best path to energy independence is through the use of renewable energy and in particular, they specify wind and solar. As has been reported before, wind and solar after many years of subsidies have produced less than 5% of America’s total primary energy. All energy use considered the per Capita use comes out to about 300 million Btus per person, per year. This is about 822,000 Btu’s per day, per person. Last spring I gave a presentation to our local Hilton Head Island Middle School students. One example I showed was how each of us in the room could use 822,000 Btu’s each day. I prepared the graphic below, which I attempted to make understandable for 8th Graders. Perhaps it is simple and easy to understand that even a Washington bureaucrat could understand? The folks making energy policy in Washington, in my opinion, do not understand how important conventional energy is to our way of life? Here below is my attempt to explain how using a million Btus/day is very reasonable for the average citizen.

Dick Storm Middle School Presentation on Energy & Electricity Generation, March 2022

For those of us middle class folks that have lived the American Dream to enjoy a very comfortable life, it is not hard to imagine using a million Btus each day with the various forms of energy depicted above. Energy used on our behalf goes beyond what we personally use. The pro-rated energy use per Capita (as recorded by the DOE) includes Industrial manufacturing, Military Defense, government, commercial, fertilizer production, food production and shipping transportation uses. Energy does in fact provide for our high quality of life. Perhaps it would be helpful to compare our energy use to the people of other countries. Here below is such a comparison.

Sources: Dick Storm Middle School Energy Presentation, BP, ExxonMobil, World Bank, Our World in Data
Dick Storm Middle School Presentation on Energy & Electricity, March 2022

Flows of Total U.S. Primary Energy

For anyone who has seen my posts before you will know that I am very enamored with the simple yet clear illustration of U.S. Energy Sources and flows provided by the Department of Energy’s LLNL. This chart shows all major sources of energy which includes renewables and illustrates the quantities of each produced and used by the thickness of the flow lines.

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Energy Flows, 2021: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov

Conclusions

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, August 21, 2022

Excellent references for further research and information:

  1. Donn Dears, The Politics of Energy, Part 1: https://bit.ly/3J5OnTc 
  2. Donn Dears, The Politics of Energy, Part 2: :  https://bit.ly/3QuEuRs
  3. IEA Energy and Food Production: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis
  4. Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as World’s largest oil supplier, June 20, 2022 Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/china-buys-7-5-billion-of-russian-energy-with-oil-at-record
  5. China-Russian Energy Deal, February 2022: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-china-may-sign-energy-other-deals-amid-moscow-tension-with-west-2022-02-03/
  6. International Energy Association, Energy Report, Exec. Summary 2021:  https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/executive-summary
  7. NERC Warning of Blackout Risk: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/north-american-electric-reliability-corp-warns-of-increased-risk-of-grid-blackouts-this-summer/
  8. NERC 2022 State of Reliability Report, July 6, 2022: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/PA/Performance%20Analysis%20DL/NERC_SOR_2022.pdf
  9. North American Electric Reliability Corporation December 2021 Report: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2021.pdf
  10. U.S. Grid Monitor, Real Time Bulk Power across U.S. : https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/US48/US48
  11. WSJ June 18, 2022, West Risks Blackouts From Drought and loss of Hydroelectric Capacity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/west-risks-blackouts-as-hydroelectric-power-dries-up-11624008601?mod=article_inline
  12. Reuters, China Buying Russian Fuel: The Guardian (UK) China’s Premier Calls For More Coal Plants, June 24, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/24/chinese-premier-calls-for-more-coal-production-as-electricity-demand-soars 
  13. China buying Russian oil, gas and coal, Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asian-buyers-russian-oil-gas-coal-2022-02-22/
  14. China Coal Consumption is higher than all the rest of the world together, NS Energy Feb. 2020: https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/electricity-consuming-countries/
  15. BP Statistical Review 2021 (Report released July 2022): https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf
  16. The United Nations and Policies of Decarbonization are a higher priority than Feeding the World’s poor and World Peace: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/04/05/energy-world-peace/
  17. POWER Mag, Article on HELE Plants 2018: https://www.powermag.com/could-high-efficiency-low-emissions-hele-technology-revive-u-s-coal-power/
  18. World Nuclear Assoc. Small Modular Reactors: https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/small-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx
  19. Liberty Energy, Bettering Human Lives, ESG Report 2022: https://www.libertyenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Bettering-Human-Lives-Liberty-Energy-ESG-Report-2021-Spreads-Web-2.pdf
  20. World Coal Assoc. : https://www.worldcoal.org/clean-coal-technologies/clean-coal-2/ The next four articles are from Dr. George Holliday and son Bill Holliday’s Environmental Newsletter August 21, 2022:
  21. Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies Bjorn Lomborg August 2022: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157?fbclid=IwAR1dowZRH8xZ8MRC_G7S1iw2diUkcsI2LCoqry2q-CP-BZqLPHHFnqMJKy
  22. Continental Resources Chairman and founder Harold Hamm detailed on Monday (Mayc2022) what he believes is behind the record prices Americans are facing at the pump, arguing that the Biden administration’s “failed policies on energy are not working. https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6306265270112#sp=show-clips
  23. Heating the Oceans: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)An issue with addressing how the earth cools is the mental concept of time. According to the Stefan-Boltzmann law, the earth is continuously emitting infrared energy depending on temperature. Some atmospheric gases, greenhouse gases, continuously interfere with the release of this energy to space in specific wavenumbers (number of wavelengths per centimeter, sometimes called frequency). In clear skies near the surface, most of the gases are well mixed except for water vapor, which varies significantly by region. : http://sepp.org/twtwfiles/2022/TWTW%208-6-2022.pdf
  24. The Modern World Can’t Exist Without These Four Ingredients,  They All Require Fossil Fuels, Vaclav Smil

https://time.com/6175734/reliance-on-fossil-fuels/

Energy Policy: It’s Not My Job

Failure to Plan is a Plan to Fail: Congress

America has no energy policy. We only have a policy to decarbonize. Recently I had an opportunity to meet with my representative in Congress, I brought up the topic of the coming energy crisis and how foolish current energy policies are, etc. My Congresswoman basically responded with this comment: ” I can’t do anything about that until we have a majority in Congress” I could paraphrase her response as “It’s not my job” which was a term I hated to hear from people I worked with.

Congress Abdicates Responsibility

The EPA has 14,581 employees and a 9.6 Billion dollar budget. The Department of Energy another 10,000+ employees. The heads of these departments are basically political appointee’s with no required expertise in environmental science or energy. They are not formulating energy policy or working toward energy independence for the U.S. In fact, they are led by environmental extremists. I have written numerous posts regarding the importance of energy to everything we do and eat. America runs on energy and it takes 100 Quadrillion Btus each year to power our economy, our industrial production, food production, transportation, heating, cooling, refrigeration, cooking, comforts and conveniences.

Failure to Plan Electricity Generation Capacity

The environmental extremists believe that everything can be electrified and that the electricity will be provided by renewable wind and solar power. The EPA and other state and Federal agencies have thousands of employees writing regulations to favor wind and solar and to discourage or cancel the use of coal, oil and gas. The “War on Carbon” has been going on a long time and the extremists have been very successful. The chart below is from NERC, (the North American Electricity Reliability Council). Note that since 2011 the U.S. has lost 102,600 MW’s of electric generation capacity from coal and nuclear plants.

More plants are scheduled to be shut down in the next year or two and until they are shut down, maintenance work is minimized, thus forcing a death spiral to their longevity. However, to keep the power on this summer our country has depended on Dispatchable Fossil Fuels, nuclear and hydro for over 80% of the electricity generation. A typical week of generation by fuel is shown below from the U.S. Grid Monitor website. Total generation 664,749 MW of which, 83% was Dispatchable generation. The totals by fuels on June 14 were: Gas 41%, Coal 20%, Nuclear 14%, Wind 11%, Hydro 8%, Solar 6%.

A Reminder: These are the Fuels that We Depend On Now

Natural gas, coal and nuclear fuels are what produce the most reliable and affordable electricity. This summer, about 80+% of our electricity. Here below is a typical week from the U.S. Grid Monitor website.

Reserve generation was tight and coal power generation was 36.86% for MISO and 21% for PJM as can be seen from the two charts below. Although coal power has been important this summer and will likely be more important in the winter, over 12,600 MW of coal plants are scheduled to be shut down in the next year or two. Natural gas provided the largest generation this summer and will likely be needed in similar quantities at winter peaks. However, in the winter residential heating competes with power generation and supplies due to limited pipeline capacity will likely be an imbalance of supply & Demand.

Fossil Fuels Provide 79% of U.S. Total Energy

Electricity is essential. Just remember the last hurricane or extreme weather event that caused power to be off for a day or two. It has been rare for many Americans to experience loss of electricity but when we have lost it is when we appreciate it the most. However, electricity represents about 37% of America’s promary energy consumption. The rest is used for transportation, industrial production, feedstock for plastics and other materials, fertilizer production, food production, food processing and food distribution. Seventy nine percent is from fossil fuels. When nuclear is included as “Conventional Electricity Generation” then the total conventional electricity generation is over 87%.

The Total Primary Energy Needed by the U.S. is right at 100 Quadrillion Btus per year. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory keeps track of energy sources and use each year. A chart is published to show energy flows by fuel as a form of Sankey Diagram where the thickness of each line represents the portion of each source of energy or fuel.

Note the solar and wind production in 2021. Total of wind and solar as primary energy was less than 5% of America’s total primary energy supply. Fossil fuels plus nuclear are over 87%. Who believes that wind and solar after many years of subsidies and now only produces 5% can replace the 87%? For sure in the next 28 years it is not going to provide energy for jet aircraft propulsion, cement production, steel, ammonia fertilizer and feedstock for plastics. I repeat: There is no energy policy in the U.S.

A Rational Energy Policy

A rational energy policy would be to plan for the future power generation needs of our country and to plan for adequate fuels to be produced from within our borders by reducing Federal Regulations. Basically six goals:

  • Energy Independence: Coal, Oil, Gas and Nuclear Fuels
  • Adequate Electricity Generation Capacity with 80% Dispatchable
  • Minimum 15% Reserve generation during summer/winter Peak generation
  • Increased Production of coal, oil, gas and nuclear fuels to sustain our economy and high quality of life
  • Encourage new nuclear, Natural gas production increases and pipelines, clean coal with future CCS
  • Expand Oil & Natural Gas Production and Refining capacity to meet U.S. Demand

Conclusions

  • Congress has abdicated their responsibility and delegated too much authority to (out of control) Bureaucrats that are functioning to control Society without oversight. Example, EPA Clean Power Plan and now CSAPR to cause further pain and costs in operating coal plants
  • America depends on 87% conventional energy but the EPA and DOE are working to create regulations to tax or restrict its use.
  • The Bureaucrats have created rules and laws to restrict conventional energy production and use which will worsen the energy crisis
  • The EPA and DOE have top management Extremists that have little understanding or interest in doing what is best for our nation. We should watch what they do, not listen to what they claim. Also, do the math on energy requirements of our society for sustainable “American Dream” living
  • The EPA and Department of Energy are run by conventional fuel hating Ideologues
  • Congress will not act until the energy crisis becomes worse. Until then, the Ideoloques in the government will continue to harm our nation.

Respectfully,

Dick Storm, August 19, 2022

References and information for further reading & reasearch

  1. Biden Administration people. Robert Stilson Blog:  https://www.influencewatch.org/hub/biden-administration/
  2. 114th Congress, Majority Staff Report, Obama’s Carbon Mandate, August 2015: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
  3.  Washington Post, Earth First Eco Terrorist Group with leader (Tracy Stone-Manning) now part of Biden Administration, BLM Dept: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/07/14/did-bidens-pick-lead-bureau-land-management-support-eco-terrorism/
  4.  Island Pulse, Real Time Power by Fuel, Hawaii Electric. This is cited as an example of a state that is truly an energy island and dependent on self sufficiency. Attempted to be 100% green but because of intermittancy, uses large amounts of high cost Diesel fuel, thus, highest cost electricity in the U.S. : https://www.islandpulse.org
  5. Business Insider, Links of Russian Funds to NRDC Funding to fight Frackinghttps://www.businessinsider.com/a-russian-linked-company-in-bermuda-is-funneling-millions-to-us-anti-fracking-groups-2015-1
  6. Big Green Radicals, 2014  : https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/epa-report.pdf
  7. IEA Energy and Food Production: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis
  8. Michael Bloomberg Awards 174 million to Sierra Club Beyond Coal Program: https://www.sierraclub.org/press-releases/2020/09/bloomberg-philanthropies-and-sierra-clubs-beyond-coal-campaign-reaches
  9. Tom Steyer Starts Fund of 100 million to fight Climate Change, Philanthropy News Digest: https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/news/hedge-fund-billionaire-to-step-up-climate-change-advocacy-efforts
  10. Elitists, Not Engineers Plan Energy Policy:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/11/03/glasgow-cop-26-elitists-and-special-interests-promote-china-first-america-last-why-because-energy-savvy-engineers-were-not-successful-in-educating-the-public-and-politicians-on-the-true-facts/
  11. Joe Gothman Atty in EPA Revolving Door of well funded non-Profits and EPA: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
  12. Paul Driessen Federalist Papers on Global Warming News: https://thefederalist.com/category/science/global-warming/
  13.  Source Watch Brags on NRDC being responsible for forcing shutting down of Seven major coal plants in Texas in 2007: https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Natural_Resources_Defense_Council#Support_for_coal_gasification
  14. Environmental Defense Fund: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_Defense_Fund
  15. Influence Watch profile of EDF: https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/environmental-defense-action-fund/
  16. Mother Jones 2012, Sierra Club “War on Coal” update to kill 167 coal plants: https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2012/04/map-american-coal-plants/
  17. AEP Newsletter to employees and Retirees on Turk Plant Settlement: https://aepretirees.com/2011/12/22/aep-resolves-all-legal-challenges-against-turk-plant-plant-on-track-to-begin-commercial-operation-in-2012/
  18. NRDC About us and link to IRS 990 Form: https://www.nrdcactionfund.org/about/
  19. Influence Watch, NRDC page: https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/natural-resources-defense-council-nrdc/
  20. Washington Examiner: Gina McCarthy CEO of NRDC: https://eelegal.org/washington-examiner-gina-mccarthy-and-nrdc-together-again/
  21. Wrong Kind of Green, NRDC and Source Watch: https://www.wrongkindofgreen.org/the-group-of-ten/natural-resources-defense-council/
  22. Bezos awards $100 million to NRDC : https://www.nrdc.org/media/2020/201116
  23. Bezos plans to give Billions to Environmental Org’s: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/jeff-bezos-pledges-1-billion-to-conservation-through-bezos-earth-fund.html
  24. Activist Facts,  Environmental Report (Follow the Money): https://www.activistfacts.com/organizations/19-natural-resources-defense-council/
  25. Washington Examiner 2013 EPA and Sue and Settle Lawsuits: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/epas-back-room-sue-and-settle-deals-require-reform
  26. Activist Facts, Sierra Club, Beyond Coal, Beyond Gas, Nuclear :https://www.activistfacts.com/organizations/194-sierra-club/
  27. Gina McCarthy, Climate Czar, IRS 990 form when she worked at NRDC between Obama and Biden Administrations: Click to access nrdc-actionfund-990-2020.pdf

Pillars of Modern Civilization: All Dependent on Energy

 Energy=Life    

Food Supply, Ammonia, Steel, Plastics and Concrete

This is my personal opinion. My attempt to show how the policies of environmental extremists, some who hold elected office & some who have high Bureaucratic offices have placed America on a perilous path of energy insecurity. These are my personal opinions and they are not related with any other company or organization with which I am a part of or have ever been a part of. I have used references that I have checked and believe to be totally accurate. Many of the references used are listed at the end of this post for further substantiation of my opinions.

Introduction

The importance of energy is well known by engineers involved in the energy production and electric generation industries. Energy is essential to power our economy, high quality of life, freedom of travel, comforts and conveniences.  Also, food production and distribution are impacted by rising energy costs. The MSM has not reported much on the impact of the rising cost of energy to food price excalations. I will here.

Energy engineers know the importance of energy. The general public, not so much, they have been indoctrinated into hating carbon by effective scare tactics of the U.N., misguided Politicians, the WEF, Entertainment personalities, Environmental Extremists and the MSM. 

According to the EIA, 79% of our total primary energy in 2021 was provided by fossil fuels. When nuclear power is included as a form of conventional energy, then over 87% of the energy we depend on is from conventional fuels. So, let’s think about important materials and crops that support our high quality of life, including more than adequate food. Energy is essential to produce the materials we need as well as the abundance of food that Americans are Blessed with.

Affordable, Abundant, Reliable Energy is Essential to Power Life as We Know It

Meanwhile, policy makers in Washington and all across the U.S. are changing energy policies to fit a green agenda of attempting to abolish fossil fuels. As with the general public, the politicians do not understand the importance of conventional, affordable energy. If fossil fuels were eliminated our society would literally return to life as it was in the 19th century. Drake’s first oil well in 1859 saved the whales by beginning the use of kerosene to replace whale oil for illumination. Then in the 1880’s came the “end of night” with light bulbs and the introduction of central station power generation with  Edison’s Pearl Street Power Generation Station as one of the first in the world. Fossil fuels built the American way of life and our economy since then and we continue to be dependent on them. No amount of environmental or engineering fiction is going to change the needed sources of energy for the next few decades.

A Reminder of Energy History

I would like to focus this post on the importance of energy and especially fossil fuels to provide essential materials and food for people of the world. Oil did save the whales (true) with Drake’s first oil well and Standard Oil’s kerosene production. Then Edison, Tesla and Westinghouse’s successes in developing electricity, motors and illumination by about 1898. Now, let’s switch from energy to food production concerns in 1898.

The Relationship of Energy and Food

Interestingly, the Head of the British Scientific Society, William Crookes, gave a sobering talk in 1898 to state that the planet can only support a total population of about two billion people. Why? Because there was not enough guano (sea bird droppings deposits on islands) and imported Chilean nitrate fertilizer to grow crops to support a growing world population over about 2 billion.  This is well documented in the book, “The Alchemy of Air” as well as books by Vaclav Smil. 

Vaclav Smil is a well-respected energy expert and he has written dozens of books centered on the topic of energy. His latest book is, “How the World Really Works”. I borrowed part of the title of this post from his chapter #4 “Understanding Our Material World”.

Vaclav Smil Book Cover 2022, Viking

The four materials that Smil has selected are Ammonia, Plastics, Steel and Concrete. These are all dependent on vast quantities of energy to produce and yes, we all depend on them for our everyday lives. Let’s start with Ammonia.

Ammonia, A Pre-Requisite to Feeding the World

An interesting book by Thomas Hager, “The Alchemy of Air” chronicles the development of the Haber-Bosch process. The story of how Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch invented and developed the process for producing synthetic nitrogen fertilizer. The book starts out by reminding us of the concern by the head of the British Academy of Sciences, William Crookes in 1898 that the earth will not be able to support a population growing above about 2 billion people, because there simply is not enough fertilizer from natural sources such as guano, manure or Chilean Nitrate to fertilize the world’s crops in sufficient quantity to feed a growing world population. Thus, the prospect of famine was real. That was 1898 and within ten years Fritz Haber a Jewish chemist, living in Germany, invented the process to create ammonia from natural gas and air. Later, Haber teamed up with Carl Bosch then a senior manager at BASF and together the developed and commercialized the Haber-Bosch process for creating ammonia. Fast forward to 1972 and President Nixon’s first trip to China to open doors for trade. What did China want first? They wanted ammonia plants to produce fertilizer after millions(1) of Chinese had died of starvation during Mao Tse Tung’s “Great Leap Forward” of failed central control. According to Smil, China’s first trade deal after Nixon’s visit was to purchase 13 ammonia plants from M.W. Kellogg of Texas. That was the only way that China could produce sufficient food to feed their growing population. Today, as with many other products, China produces more ammonia than any other country.

50% of the World’s People Could Not Exist Without Ammonia

(Smil states on page 83)  “I hasten to add that 50% of humanity dependent on ammonia is not an immutable approximation. Given prevailing diets and farming practices, synthetic nitrogen feeds half of humanity—-or, everything else being equal, half of the world’s population could not be sustained without synthetic nitrogenous fertilizers”. 

Energy=Life

Of course, the point is, food production is related to fertilizer production and fertilizer production depends on natural gas  as a feedstock. About 1.2% of the world’s total primary energy is used for fertilizer and about 3-5% of food production depends on fossil fuels. Thus, Vaclav Smil picked energy intensive Ammonia as the number one material of the four materials that are (his ranking) pillars of modern civilization. 

The Cost of Energy for Food Production & Distribution is About 50%

The IEA published a chart to show the cost components of energy for nine selected crops. The chart is copied below.  Note that total energy cost for the nine selected crops range from a low of about 40% for cotton to almost 60% for wheat and sorghum, over 50% for corn. The cost of production for all food crops in the U.S. is about 50%. Most of this fuel is from fossil fuels. Energy is important for all of the people of the world and reasonable cost, abundant energy is crucially important for crop production and processing. Escalating energy costs will increase the costs of food and in some cases, reduce the quantity of food production due to limited fertilizer (ammonia based) availability. The fuel for Diesel tractors and food processing is significant. The final point: Solar and Wind cannot create fertilizer and both are impossible in the near term to power tractors and intercity or Global transportation.

IEA Report https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis

Sources of World Energy about 86.25% Conventional Fuels, oil, gas, coal and nuclear

From BP-Statistical Review of World Energy Consumption:

Oil                                184.21 EJ        31%

Natural Gas                  145.35 EJ 24%

Coal                             160.10 EJ 27%

Nuclear                        25.31 EJ 4%

Hydro-Electricity         40.26 EJ  7%

Renewables                  39.91 EJ 7%

Total Primary Energy  595.15 Exajoules 

World Consumption of Primary Energy-BP Statistical Review-2022

BP 2022 Statistical Energy Review: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf

The world’s energy consumption does inrease year after year, except during the Pandemic of 2020 as can be seen on BP’s graph above. If we extrapolate and expand the forecast to 2050, then increased energy will be required for the estimated 9 Billion world population that is expected in 2050. For now, 86% of the world’s energy and 87.4% of the United States Energy is provided by conventional fuels of oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear fuels. Solar and wind provide only about 7% of the world’s primary energy and less than 5% of the United States Energy for 2021. The U.S. energy flow chart is shown below:

Energy Flow Chart for United States, 2021

   Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY FLOW CHART 2021: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov

No! We Cannot Electrify Everything!

Government officials for the last 18 months have been scolding and attempting to scare the general public into getting rid of our internal combustion engines and buy EV’s. Claiming we need to “Decarbonize our society”. In essence, they are literally saying, “Electrify Everything”. In fact, I did see at least one article on electrify everything. The two charts above which show  the reality of the energy needs of the United States and the world, should help explain: NO, We Cannot Electrify Everything! For sure, plastics, concrete, steel, air transportation, aluminum and fertilizer cannot be produced from windmills and solar panels. I contributed to an article by Hayden Ludwig of the Capital Research Center in December 2021. Our goal was to try to set the record straight on “No, We Cannot Electrify Everything”.

Let’s get back to the relationship of energy and food production. Fertilizer production for a start, uses about 1.2% of the world’s total primary energy. As mentioned above, literally half the world’s population would suffer famine if ammonia fertilizer production was stopped. 

Fertilizer and Food

The IEA chart above showed the energy cost component for food production. Much of the energy used is natural gas for fertilizer production. Here below are some fertilizer facts to consider. This reference is for the year 2010 and this is the most recent document I could find. I think it is reasonable to estimate that the 1.2% energy use for fertilizer production has tracked about the same trend for the last twelve years as the world population has grown and the nutrition for the people of the world has generally improved.

From Fertilizer Facts. https://www.fertilizer.org/images/Library_Downloads/2014_ifa_ff_ammonia_emissions_july.pdf. About 1.2% of the World’s Total Primary Energy is Used to Produce Ammonia: 

Fertilizer Facts, Ammonia and Energy use, 2010: https://www.fertilizer.org/images/Library_Downloads/2014_ifa_ff_ammonia_emissions_july.pdf

Energy, The Pre-Requisite for a High HDI (Human Development Index)

Here are three illustrations to show the importance of energy for both improved HMI (Human Development Index) and Economic Prosperity: 

The first chart below is from a Power-Point presentation I prepared in 2016 for a course on energy and power generation at Williamson College of the Trades. This clearly shows the relationship of energy and economic prosperity as well as the relationship of energy to HMI.

Williamson College of The Trades-Energy and Electricity Generation Short Course 2017, by author; Charts from ExxonMobil, World Bank, United Nations and Our World in Data websites

Another chart by ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook in 2017, also captures the relationship of energy, HMI and economic prosperity. As quality of life (including adequate nutrition) goes up, so does the demand for energy.

ExxonMobil-Energy Outlook, 2016

The final chart is the NASA composite photo entitled, “The Earth at Night”. This shows the earth’s illumination from space and the photo clearly identifies the countries that have a higher standard of living (HMI) and that tend to use more energy to provide their higher quality of life. 

 NASA EARTH AT NIGHT: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/79869/earth-at-night  

Conclusions

The modern world’s people need food, transportation, indoor cooking, refrigeration, materials for manufacturing and construction, manufactured products and much more. Over 86% of the world’s energy to provide crucially important materials, travel, shipping, industrial output, heating and airconditioning comes from conventional fuels. This includes fossil fuels of oil, natural gas & coal. When nuclear is included as a conventional fuel, then the total primary energy from conventional fuels is about 87% for the U.S.A. 

  • The abolishment of fossil fuels may be possible someday, but in my opinion and observations, not until far beyond 2050. 
  • Fertilizer and food production use between 3 and 5% of the world’s total primary energy. Much of this is required to come from fossil fuels.
  • Aircraft with batteries or hydrogen fuel may in fact be possible, someday. However, replacing the fleet presently flying of jet fuel powered Boeing and Airbus planes is not possible by 2050 and there are many of us that would prefer the proven safety of flying jets powered by jet fuel.
  • Steel made from hydrogen is possible, but not at a competitive cost with coke. China produces over 50% of the world’s steel now and they will continue to use the lowest cost production methods.
  • Aluminum is a very important metal for aircraft, automobiles and many other utilitarian uses. Aluminum uses the most electricity of all metals for production.  Smelting alone uses about 5 kWh per pound and this is in addition to Bauxite refining, transportation, rolling and forming. Reasonable cost, reliable and abundant electricity is required to produce aluminum. China produces over 50% of the world’s aluminum also.
  • Plastics and synthetic fibers are used in everything we depend on through the day. Auto parts are largely plastic, so are many utility pipes. Many textiles are based on fibers from oil or natural gas.
  • The government “War on Carbon” is destroying America. It is contributing to inflation and shortages of critical materials that we depend on.
  • The United Nations, the World Economic Forum, The Main Stream Press, Entertainment is interested in power and influence over the citizens of the U.S. It is not about climate
  • Environmental Extremist organizations such as the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Sierra Club, Environmental Defense Fund (and many more) have extensive funding of Billions of dollars obtained from Bloomberg, Bezos and others that is tax exempt and used against the best interests of American citizens. 
  • The overall “War on Carbon” is making energy and electricity prices higher in the U.S. This makes America less competitive with China and it increases the job losses here and increased off-shoring of manufacturing
  • America does not have an “Energy Policy” per se’. America has an a “Hate Carbon Policy” that has progressed far enough to create an energy crisis, possible Rolling Blackouts, Brownouts and excalating food prices.

I personally do not understand why many otherwise Patriotic & respected American supporters of Free Markets and Capitalism would support and contribute to extremist organizations that are determined to weaken our country and world food supply.

Respectfully,

Dick Storm, July 22, 2022

References and for further reading on the topics of Energy and Food Production:

  1. Heritage Foundation, Mao Zedong’s Mass Murder, through his Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward: https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/the-legacy-mao-zedong-mass-murder
  2. “How the World Really Works”, by Vaclav Smil, Viking, 2022
  3. “How the Energy Crisis is Exacerbating the Food Crisis”, IEA June 2022: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis
  4. Rising Fertilizer Cost Impact on Food Prices, June 2022 FAS/USDA: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/impacts-and-repercussions-price-increases-global-fertilizer-market
  5. Fertilizer Facts, Ammonia and Energy use, 2010: https://www.fertilizer.org/images/Library_Downloads/2014_ifa_ff_ammonia_emissions_july.pdf
  6. BP 2022 Statistical Energy Review: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf
  7. NASA EARTH AT NIGHT: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/79869/earth-at-night   
  8. 8.  S&P Global Natural Gas Use for Fertilizer production, surging natural gas prices, cause fertilizer costs to soar, Jan 19, 2022: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/011922-fertilizer-costs-natural-gas-prices   
  9.  Improving Lives with Fertilizer: https://www.tfi.org/our-industry/intro-to-fertilizer/improving-lives
  10. LLNL TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY FLOW CHART 2021: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov
  11. Paul Driessen list of Billionaire Climate Activists: https://climatechangedispatch.com/billionaire-climate-elites-have-their-own-rules-and-agenda/
  12. Bloomberg Beyond Carbon: https://www.beyondcarbon.org
  13. Sierra Club, Beyond Coal website: https://coal.sierraclub.org
  14. Sierra Club Success stories: https://coal.sierraclub.org/the-campaign/success-stories
  15. Influence watch, Sierra Club: https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/sierra-club/
  16. WSJ Article on Sri Lanka “Green Revolution” July 14, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sri-lankas-green-new-deal-was-a-human-disaster-gotabaya-rajapaksa-borlaug-synthetic-fertilizers-hunger-organic-agriculture-11657832186?mod=MorningEditorialReport&mod=djemMER_h
  17. The Intercept, Green Terrorism: https://theintercept.com/2019/03/23/ecoterrorism-fbi-animal-rights/
  18. Germany’s Nuclear Power Implosion July 2022:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-nuclear-implosion-bundestag-robert-habeck-energy-europe-russia-11657572926?st=i8v3nn5fczebec0&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
  19. EIA Graph of 79% Fossil Fuels in 2021, JULY 7, 2022:  https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52959
  20. IEA Energy Exacerbating Food Crisis, June 14, 2022: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis  
  21. NASA EARTH AT NIGHT: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/79869/earth-at-night  
  22. CRC-Green Watch, “Creatures from the Green Lagoon”: https://capitalresearch.org/category/green-watch/page/5/
  23. CRC Magazine, December 2021, Featuring Forced Electrification, War on Consumers” starting on page 13: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf
  24.  CRC-Green Watch, “Creatures from the Green Lagoon”: https://capitalresearch.org/category/green-watch/page/5/
  25. CRC Magazine, December 2021, Featuring Forced Electrification, War on Consumers” starting on page 13: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf
  26. Australia Energy Crisis July 1, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-warning-from-australias-power-crisis-green-energy-anthony-albanese-11655659465?mod=Searchresults_pos5&page=1
  27. Professor Judith Curry July 15, 2022: https://judithcurry.com/2022/07/16/week-in-review-climate-edition-4/
  28. Cooler Heads, July 15, 2022: Excellent References of Gina McCarthy and other EPA “War on Coal” personalities: https://go.cei.org/webmail/287682/912292506/68e507be334cf34c7d54b4b2a348b50f1d373ec69c94d0d629001f91129c1e7d
  29. Shelly Moore Capito Opinion in WVA “Intelligencer” Newspaper, July 2022: https://www.theintelligencer.net/opinion/local-columns/2022/07/joe-goffman-the-wrong-choice-to-help-lead-epa/
  30. EIA U.S. Oil & Gas Energy Reserves Y/E 2020: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/
  31. World Nuclear Organization: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx
  32. Biden, U.S. asks for 4.3 Billion to wean off Russian Nuclear Fuel :https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/us-seeks-4-3-billion-for-nuclear-fuel-to-wean-off-russia-supply#xj4y7vzkg
  33. High Natural Gas Prices Cause Rise in Fertilizer and Food Prices, Dec. 16, 2021: https://www.wsj.com/articles/surging-fertilizer-costs-push-farmers-to-shift-planting-plans-raise-prices-11639580768?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h
  34. ETHANOL AND GASOLINE: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ethanol-gasoline-price-gas-heating-btu-11638310535
  35. EPA allows more ethanol in gasoline April 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/epa-will-allow-more-ethanol-in-gas-this-summer-in-bid-to-tame-prices-11649754000?mod=hp_lead_pos1
  36. Ukraine war puts pressure on Global Food Supply, WSJ April 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-farming-food-supplies-grain-russia-11647796055?mod=article_inline
  37. Ukraine-Russia War and Food Supplies, WSJ,June 28, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/war-weather-endanger-global-food-supplies-farm-leaders-say-11656430431?mod=Searchresults_pos8&page=1
  38. Peace Through Strength & Free Markets are what built America, Phil Gramm and Mike Solon, March 2, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peace-through-strength-economic-freedom-open-trade-china-ccp-economy-america-competes-act-antitrust-biden-11646154226?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_130&cx_artPos=7&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s

NO ENERGY=NO POWER EXTREMISTS WANT MORE THAN CLEAN AIR

Here is my personal opinion along with some facts to attempt to show how the policies of environmental extremists have placed America on a perilous path of energy insecurity. These are my personal opinions and they are not related with any other company or organization with which I am a part of. These are my personal thoughts regarding my concern for the future of the U.S.A.

Introduction

In October 2021 I posted “The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be”. Since writing that post Europe has been plunged into an energy crisis as a result of Russia’s war on Ukraine. France, which usually has ample nuclear power to share with neighboring countries, has much of it’s nuclear fleet shut down for stress corrosion concerns. The UK is also facing an energy crisis caused by over reliance on renewable power. The U.S. states which have the greatest renewable power percentages have the highest cost power in the U.S. Texas and California have already experienced Blackouts and deaths from an over-reliance on renewables. Dr. Faith Birol of the IEA admitted that there is a world energy crisis and it will likely get worse.

Then there is NERC, WSJ, MISO and others that have forecast that rolling Blackouts may occur because of dwindling capacity reserves. How has the greatest country in the world come to be in this weak position? I will attempt to explain how our current energy policy. Well, it really isn’t an energy policy, it is more a policy that hates conventional energy, including nuclear. So, here is my viewpoint of how our Energy Policy came to be. Of course, this is an International problem and I would credit the United Nations for promoting scare tactics as Vaclav Klaus had so presciently described in his book, “Blue Planet, in Green Shackles” in 2007. It is not about climate, it is about power over the people.

DYSFUNCTIONAL PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE

I have had a number of discussions and presented courses on energy and electricity generation. These presentations and discussions of the Net-Zero Carbon path forward with folks (People not involved with the energy industry but concerned citizens) have raised the questions of “How can our energy policy be so stupid?” and “Are Zombies or Unicorns Planning our Energy Future”. “How can the greatest country in the world have such a foolish and impossible path forward on energy and electricity generation? “

Most of my engineer/manager/business owner friends who have worked and are familiar with electricity generation share my dismay that our great country has gone far astray from planning and building a better future for our chlidren and grandchildren. As one friend, a senior nuclear engineer stated (paraphrasing), “Our predecessors did great things, in many cases, rather than build on or advance these items, our generation has allowed them to be destroyed (think the World Trade Center towers, NASA, or in my personal case – the nuclear power industry). Our successors/followers seem to be more “lost” than ever, they accept the position that “feelings” and “beliefs” overcome scientific facts. This will be our legacy.”

My response to my friend was, Yes, in my lifetime (I began my career in 1962) nuclear power was already invented and commercialized by Admiral Rickover and President Eisenhower. Nuclear power in the 1960’s was believed to be so powerful and inexpensive that it “would be too cheap to meter”. Then, for fossil fuels, American companies, Westinghouse, General Electric, Combustion-Engineering, Babcock & Wilcox, Foster-Wheeler and others, developed and built huge, up to 1,300MW, highly efficient supercritical coal fueled power plants with heat-rates of the low 8,000 Btu’s per kWh.

The six major pollutants of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, lead, particulates and volatile organic compounds were controlled. The EPA illustration below shows progress on cleaning the air from 1970 when the EPA was formed.

CLEANING THE AIR, A JOB WELL DONE!

The U.S. is in an energy crisis and it is likely to get worse. In my opinion, it will become worse than the energy crisis of 1973-1974 during the Arab Oil Embargo. I feel strongly about this because of the momentum of the environmental extremists that have influenced the officials in charge. This energy crisis will be very hard to reverse. This post expands on my thoughts of how extremism has brought us to this point. The EPA was needed in 1970 and they did a very good job of maging the cleanup of the air in the U.S. As for over-stepping into political areas of Carbon , the SCOTUS has spoken. Thankfully.
EPA 2020 Cleaner Air Graph of air quality and pollutants: https://gispub.epa.gov/air/trendsreport/2021/#growth_w_cleaner_air

78% Less Pollutants in 2020 than in 1970

According to the EPA, between 1970 and 2020, the combined emissions of the six common pollutants
(PM2.5 and PM10, SO2, NOx,
. VOC’s, CO and Lead) dropped by 78 percent. This
progress occurred while U.S. economic indicators remain strong, as shown on the chart above. This is tremendous progress that all Americans can be proud of accomplishing. America has amongst the cleanest air when compared to other Developed nations.

OK, The Task of Cleaning the Nation’s Air Has Been Accomplished, So Now Let’s Keep American Business and Industry Productive, Energy Independent and Remain Competitive as the World’s Strongest Economy

The typical Grid example is from the fall 2021. Gas, Nuclear and Coal provide about 80% of the Dispatchable electricity generation for the Grid. Checks of the U.S. Grid Monitor up to June 17th showed a similar Balanced Generation portfolio. This is a Balanced Generation Portfolio, for now. But, plans are to shut down 14.9 GW of conventional generation (12.6 GW Coal) by the end of 2022, according to the EIA. (author’s note: Has anyone else noticed that the Grid Generation by fuel has not been available since June 17th?)

If we look at the Total Primary Energy that we use, the quantitative measurement of fuels that power our total economy (Total Energy! Electricity, Industrial, Transportation, Residential and Commercial) and our high quality of living are represented on the Energy Information Administration chart below. Yes, 79% is fossil fuels. This is for the year 2021 and renewables are less than 5%. America depends on about 87% conventional fuels when nuclear power is included as a conventional fuel.

Wouldn’t keeping America productive and strong seem to be an obvious goal for all involved in policy decisions? Well to me it does. But there are may environmental extremists that are working to a different agenda. There are extremists that either are now, or have been involved at high levels in the EPA who act as if they hate the 87% of energy that America depends on. One example is Gina McCarthy who was EPA Admisistrator in the Obama Administration. Upon leaving the EPA she was employed by the Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund, at a compensation of over $850,000 per year.

Limousine Liberals Fund Anti-Conventional Energy

The Environmental extremist organizations have been funded by many wealthy Americans, that one would think care about the future of the U.S.?

The extremists include many participants in the “World Economic Forum”. These wealthy people and organizations have funded extremist organizations with Billions of dollars in assets to fight against Natural Gas Hydraulic Fracturing, Exploration, Permitting, Drilling, Pipelines , New Refineries, Upgrading of older Power Plants and Refineries, Shutting down efficient, clean coal plants, Stopping construction of or shutting down of safe Nuclear power plants, stopping energy plant expansions and any part of improving the use of conventional fuels that power our country. Perhaps begun with good intentions, but in my view this is un-American. Where do these IRS 501(c) 3 and 4 tax exempt organizations obtain these generous funds? A good question. However, here are just a few of their sources of funding, based on Press Releases of public information. This is a sampling of how extremist, un-American organizations stay so well funded. Jeff Bezos awards NRDC $100 million dollars. Michael Bloomberg’s Bloomberg Philanthropies awards Sierra Club $174 million. The Sierra Club and Bloomberg Philanthropies brag on the Sierra Club and Bloomberg Philanthropies websites that, They have caused to shut down over 60% of America’s Coal Plants.

Tom Steyer another Billionaire starts a Climate Action Fund. I repeat, well funded to fight against us common folks achievement of the American Dream. Worse yet is the denying of needed energy for Developing countries of the world. Take a check of the Capital Research Center’s “Influence Watch” website. You won’t need to scroll through many major environmental organizations to tally up over a $Billion dollars in assets. This is mostly used to create political opposition to coal, natural gas, pipelines, Refineries, nuclear power plants and nearly all forms of conventional energy. Sure, they all were begun with good intentions of protecting the environment, that was in the Good Old days of 1892, when the Sierra Club Founder, John Muir began a movement and founded the Sierra Club to improve the environment. Like I said, it started with good intentions. However, now the extremists are endangering the future of our country. This may seem like hyperbole to those not closely involved with the energy industries. The screen shot below is from the Sierra Club, “Beyond Coal” website. Yes, they brag on shutting down 357 coal power plants. Some of these, such as Zimmer near Cincinatti should still be operating, so should some in Texas and many other states. If you have rolling Blackouts or job losses in your state, thank Michael Bloomberg, Jeff Bezos, the World Economic Forum, Tom Steyer, Movie star Celebrities, The MSM, the U.N. and the activist environmental extremists that have brought us to this crisis. Some community and state leaders proudly proclaim, “Coal is in a Death Spiral”. Maybe it is, but if so, who or which countries will benefit?

From Sierra Club website, July 13, 2022 https://coal.sierraclub.org

However, I am very concerned. We should look east toward Europe and Asia to learn some of the challenges that occur when energy becomes scarce. A world renowned energy expert and author Dr. Vaclav Smil has coined the phrase, “Energy is the Universal Currency”. Sadly, as this is written, the countries that understand and act on that best are Russia and China.

Conclusions:

Environmental extremism has progressed to the point that America is likely to continue with an energy crisis that will be worse than the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. Yes, I am old enough to remember 1973 and carrying precious five gallon cans of gasoline (knowingly unsafely) in the back of our station wagon we used to transport our family on vacation from N.C. to Florida. The gasoline shortages, the Utility stock value declines and strain on the American economy (and American Families) was difficult and memorable. Perhaps that is why I am so passionate about writing this message. This crisis does not need to happen. However, it appears to be too late to stop it and even the IEA Head, Dr. Faith Birol has admitted that it will likely get worse. In conclusion, these are the major points I wish to make:

  1. The U.S. uses and requires about 100 quadrillion British Thermal Units each year. This is about one million Btu’s per day, per person. During 2021 wind and solar provided less than 5% of that total energy. It is impossible to replace the over 87% conventional energy with wind and solar power any time soon. America is the Saudi Arabia of Coal and we should use this resource as well as nuclear, natural gas and all other fuels within our borders.
  2. Environmental Extremists have done a very effective job of stopping progress for America’s economy and productive capacity. They have caused us to lose our position of being energy independent in 2020. They are part of a five headed Monster. The five monster heads are; Public Education, The Media, Entertainment, Government and Extremist organizations that operate (protected from paying taxes) as non-profit organizations.
  3. Nuclear Power is one form of carbon free energy that can significantly increase our energy independence with proven technology (if we are concerned about carbon) However, most of the Environmental extremist organizations are against nuclear as well as being against coal, gas and oil. There is only one nuclear power plant under construction in the U.S. at this time. Georgia Power/Southern Company’s Plant Vogtle. The cost overruns in my opinion are largely due to over-Regulation.
  4. We need more new HELE Coal plants. ( High Efficiency, Low Emissions). The last two built, John Turk and Longview Plants were commissioned about 2012. Since then, much of the Supply-Chain of engineers, craftsmen and manufacturing capacity have retired or been out-sourced to China. Witness the once great pioneering power generation equipment manufacturing company, “Combustion-Engineering” now gone. Also, the American manufacturing company Foster-Wheeler. Still here in name only.
  5. The future of solving our energy crisis looks bleak due to the momentum of poor decisions and poor priorities. It is not only the U.S. It is also Europe, Sri Lanka, Australia and India. If you have time, peruse through some of the links provided below to review the news of the International Energy Crisis.
  6. My recommendation is that we should be using All Forms of energy and have a Balanced Energy Portfolio. One local example is my adopted state of S.C. Still a Regional Utility (state owned) they have shown in their IRP (Integrated Resource Plan) that they are likely to follow the rest of the U.S. in shutting down existing coal plants before adequate, proven, Dispatchable replacement generating capacity is built and commissioned. I favor building new Coal HELE plants, new nuclear whether SMR or conventional, and of course, the proven Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Units that have done so well at operational efficiencies above 50%.
  7. Provide the infra-structure of pipelines and fuel supply chains to existing plants. Coal trains and pipelines.
  8. Maintain the existing plants as if they are going to run another ten years. Plan new coal plants to replace the old ones that need to be retired.
  9. Most importantly! Educate the General Public and K-12 Students on the true facts about the importance of energy similar to what was done by the Electric Utility Companies in teh 1950’s -1970’s up to the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973.

The preceding opinions are my own, not shared by any other company or organization that I have been associated with. These are my strong personal opinions and this was written solely by the author.

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, July 13, 2022

References for further research and to refer to more factual information

  1. China buying Russian oil, gas and coal, Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asian-buyers-russian-oil-gas-coal-2022-02-22/
  2. China-Russian Energy Deal, February 2022: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-china-may-sign-energy-other-deals-amid-moscow-tension-with-west-2022-02-03/
  3. Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as World’s largest oil supplier, June 20, 2022 Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/china-buys-7-5-billion-of-russian-energy-with-oil-at-record
  4. Korea Times, China depends on Sanctioned Russian Fuel, June 20, 2022: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2022/06/501_331352.html
  5. Utility Dive, Capacity Auction Prices, June 25,2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-capacity-auction-nuclear-solar-coal-prices/625861/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-06-22%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:42604%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive
  6. Detroit News, Consumers Energy to End Coal Use in 2025: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2022/06/23/michigan-panel-approves-consumers-energy-plan-end-coal-use-2025/7716918001/
  7. Alliant and WEC Change Plans to Retire Coal to Meet Demand, June 22, 2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wisconsin-utilities-coal-retirement-miso-delay/626005/
  8. WSJ Report on Ameren Keeping Rush Island Operating to Satisfy Demand June 10, 2022:https://www.wsj.com/articles/old-coal-plant-neared-retirement-but-now-its-needed-to-keep-the-lights-on-11654858801?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
  9. WSJ May 8, 2022, Power Plants Struggling With Electricity Shortages to Keep Power on: https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=0&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s 
  10. WSJ June 18, 2022, West Risks Blackouts From Drought and loss of Hydroelectric Capacity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/west-risks-blackouts-as-hydroelectric-power-dries-up-11624008601?mod=article_inline 
  11. WSJ, Opinion, May 27, 2022, Jason Hayes, “Why Blackouts are Coming to Michigan” Regarding shutdown of Palisades Nuclear Generating Plant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-electricity-blackouts-are-coming-to-michigan-nuclear-power-plant-green-energy-renewable-climate-11653685521?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=5&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s
  12. NERC Warning of Blackout Risk: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/north-american-electric-reliability-corp-warns-of-increased-risk-of-grid-blackouts-this-summer/
  13. The Guradian (UK) China’s Premier Calls For More Coal Plants, June 24, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/24/chinese-premier-calls-for-more-coal-production-as-electricity-demand-soars 
  14. Global Food Supply at Risk Due to High Energy Prices, The Guardian, June 25, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/25/our-global-food-supply-is-at-risk-when-high-gas-prices-limit-the-creation-of-fertiliser
  15. US and World Coal Reserves Map: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Coal-reserves-volumes-by-countries-of-the-world-3_fig1_328037099
  16. EIA 2nd reference on World Coal Reserves, EIA 2011: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=2930
  17. American Geosciences institute, World Coal Reserves: https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/maps/interactive-map-coal-resources-united-states
  18. EIA Total Energy Use 1950-2020: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43515
  19. St. Louis Fed. Renewable Power Increases have reduced Conventional Power Generation Capacity Factors, thus weakening cash flow for O&M and improvements: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/10/renewables-have-increased-the-capacity-for-electricity-production/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
  20. Fact Check on Wind Power Cost: https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/does-wind-work-without-subsidies/
  21. Forbes, Michael Schellenberger article on True Cost of Wind Power: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/04/20/why-renewables-cause-blackouts-and-increase-vulnerability-to-extreme-weather/?sh=6400daf54e75 
  22. EPA Retains Tools to Harm Coal Power Production, Utility Dive, July 1, 2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/supreme-court-epa-GHG-carbon-power-plant/626456/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-07-01%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:42837%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive
  23. VOX, Electrify Everything! : https://www.vox.com/2016/9/19/12938086/electrify-everything
  24. Stanford, Mark Jacobson, Net Zero Carbon by 2050 : https://news.stanford.edu/2015/06/08/50states-renewable-energy-060815/
  25. Jacobson’s website: https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
  26. UN Net Zero Carbon website: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition  
  27.  Princeton University Net Zero Carbon Plan: Net Zero Carbon Project Princeton University Researchers, Jenkins et al: https://cmi.princeton.edu/annual-meetings/annual-reports/year-2019/the-net-zero-america-project-finding-pathways-to-a-carbon-neutral-future/
  28. Cornell Daily Sun, Speaker discusses Coal Plants in a Death Spiral: https://cornellsun.com/2016/10/03/keynote-speaker-investigates-recent-transformations-in-the-energy-grid/
  29. WSJ Australia Warning on Green Energy Risks:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-warning-from-australias-power-crisis-green-energy-anthony-albanese-11655659465?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=3&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s
  30. National Coal Council, Enhanced Oil Recovery using C02 from Coal Plants, 2012: http://www.nationalcoalcouncil.org/reports/07-10-12-NCC_Harnessing_Coals_Carbon_Content_to_Advance_Economy_Environment_EnergySecurity.pdf
  31. Niagara Falls Power Plant Info NYPA: https://www.wnypapers.com/news/article/current/2021/09/22/148010/1.6-billion-clean-energy-investment-to-extend-operating-life-of-niagara-power-project
  32. EIA Graph of 79% Fossil Fuels in 2021, JULY 7, 2022:  https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52959
  33. POWER Mag. Turk Plant and History of Ultra-Supercritical Units in U.S. : https://www.powermag.com/first-u-s-ultrasupercritical-power-plant-in-operation/
  34. ASME Eddystone Historical Engineering Achievement: https://www.asme.org/about-asme/engineering-history/landmarks/226-eddystone-station-unit-1
  35. 232 Coal Plants in U.S. List: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coal-fired_power_stations_in_the_United_States
  36. BP Statistical Review 2021 (Report released July 2022): https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf
  37. Real Clear Energy article on “Utopian Energy” June 2022: https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/06/26/chasing_utopian_energy_how_i_wasted_20_years_of_my_life_839185.html 
  38. US Grid Monitor by EIA (Stopped working June 17, 2022): https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/US48/US48
  39. EIA 14.9 GW Total shutdowns planned in 2022, 12.6 GW coal: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50838
  40.  EIA History of Renewable Energy Incentives March 2022: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/renewable-sources/incentives.php
  41. EIA History of PTC Credit for Wind Power 2012: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=8870
  42. NAP Report to Govt on Electric Utilities 2012: https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/21712/chapter/8#156
  43. History of MISO 1998 beginning: https://www.misoenergy.org/stakeholder-engagement/training2/learning-center/miso-history/
  44. EPA New Source Review  Settlements Summaries: https://www.gem.wiki/EPA_Coal_Plant_Settlements
  45. EPA Settlements on NSR violations by WEPCO 2003: https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/wisconsin-electric-power-company-wepco-clean-air-act-civil-settlement 
  46. Dissertation on the Sierra Club Success of Beyond Coal Campaign 2020: https://www.proquest.com/openview/b734be1b4fa402463fbb2ee03a7993e5/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y
  47. Inside the War on Coal Politico, The Agenda 2015: https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/05/inside-war-on-coal-000002/
  48.  NRDC China Office: https://chinadevelopmentbrief.org/ngos/natural-resources-defense-council-nrdc/  
  49.  Government Accountability Office Report on Environmental Protection Agency–Application of Publicity or Propaganda and Anti-Lobbying Provisions
  50. EPA Lobbying, 2015: https://www.gao.gov/products/b-326944 NRDC About us and link to IRS 990 Form: https://www.nrdcactionfund.org/about/
  51. Influence Watch, NRDC page: https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/natural-resources-defense-council-nrdc/
  52. Washington Examiner: Gina McCarthy CEO of NRDC: https://eelegal.org/washington-examiner-gina-mccarthy-and-nrdc-together-again/
  53. Wrong Kind of Green, NRDC and Source Watch: https://www.wrongkindofgreen.org/the-group-of-ten/natural-resources-defense-council/
  54. Bezos awards $100 million to NRDC : https://www.nrdc.org/media/2020/201116
  55. Bezos plans to give a Billion $ to Environmental Org’s: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/jeff-bezos-pledges-1-billion-to-conservation-through-bezos-earth-fund.html
  56. Activist Facts,  Environmental Report (Follow the Money): https://www.activistfacts.com/organizations/19-natural-resources-defense-council/
  57. Washington Examiner 2013 EPA and Sue and Settle Lawsuits: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/epas-back-room-sue-and-settle-deals-require-reform
  58. Activist Facts, Sierra Club, Beyond Coal, Beyond Gas, Nuclear :https://www.activistfacts.com/organizations/194-sierra-club/
  59. Mother Jones 2012, Sierra Club “War on Coal” update to kill 167 coal plants: https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2012/04/map-american-coal-plants/
  60. AEP Newsletter to employees and Retirees on Turk Plant Settlement: https://aepretirees.com/2011/12/22/aep-resolves-all-legal-challenges-against-turk-plant-plant-on-track-to-begin-commercial-operation-in-2012/
  61. PowerEngineering Articles on Turk and Duke Coal plant closures, 2/01/2012: https://www.power-eng.com/renewables/aep-resolves-all-legal-challenges-against-turk-plant/#gref
  62. Source Watch Brags on NRDC being responsible for forcing shutting down of Seven major coal plants in Texas in 2007: 

https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Natural_Resources_Defense_Council#Support_for_coal_gasification

63. Environmental Defense Fund: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_Defense_Fund

64. Influence Watch profile of EDF: https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/environmental-defense-action-fund/

65. Paul Driessen Federalist Papers on Global Warming News: https://thefederalist.com/category/science/global-warming/

66. WUWT, Article, July 8, 2022, Green Communism, Eradicate the Energy Privilege of Rich Countries:  https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/07/08/green-communism-eradicate-the-energy-privilege-of-rich-countries/

67. Short Links to Dick Storm Blog: the War on Carbon, How it Came to Be, Oct. 2021: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-ek

68. Short Link: American Dream= 100 Quadrillion Btu’s: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/07/04/american-dream-100-quadrillion-btus/

69. Example of a Balanced Portfolio: 

https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/06/08/balanced-portfolio-of-generation-here-is-an-example/  

70. Sustainable Million Btu’s per day: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/05/17/providing-a-sustainable-million-btus-per-day-per-person-by-fuel-source/

71. Energy and World Peace: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/04/05/energy-world-peace/  

72. What is Endangered, Freedom or Climate: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/02/27/what-is-endangered-climate-or-freedom-this-is-the-sub-title-of-the-book-blue-planet-in-green-shackles/

73. Foolishness of Net Zero Carbon: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/10/13/the-stupidity-of-net-zero-carbon/

74. COP-26 Elitists Planning World Energy Path: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/11/03/glasgow-cop-26-elitists-and-special-interests-promote-china-first-america-last-why-because-energy-savvy-engineers-were-not-successful-in-educating-the-public-and-politicians-on-the-true-facts/

75. China goes All In For All Forms of Energy are Important: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/02/21/history-of-energy-electricity-part-4-china-goes-all-in-for-all-fuels-are-important-2000-2022/

76. Elitists, Not Engineers Plan Energy Policy:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/11/03/glasgow-cop-26-elitists-and-special-interests-promote-china-first-america-last-why-because-energy-savvy-engineers-were-not-successful-in-educating-the-public-and-politicians-on-the-true-facts/

77. Michael Bloomberg Awards 174 million to Sierra Club Beyond Coal Program: https://www.sierraclub.org/press-releases/2020/09/bloomberg-philanthropies-and-sierra-clubs-beyond-coal-campaign-reaches

78. Tom Steyer Starts Fund of 100 million to fight Climate Change, Philanthropy News Digest: https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/news/hedge-fund-billionaire-to-step-up-climate-change-advocacy-efforts

79. NRDC : https://apps.irs.gov/app/eos/detailsPage?ein=132654926&name=Natural%20Resources%20Defense%20Council&city=New%20York&state=NY&countryAbbr=US&type=returnsSearch

80. EPA 2020 Cleaner Air Graph of air quality and pollutants: https://gispub.epa.gov/air/trendsreport/2021/#growth_w_cleaner_air

81. Germany’s Nuclear Power Implosion, WSJ, July 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-nuclear-implosion-bundestag-robert-habeck-energy-europe-russia-11657572926?st=i8v3nn5fczebec0&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

82. Hypocritical Germany is being brought to its knees

Berlin loved to preach the virtues of net zero. Now it is being forced to confront its own policy failures “The Telegraph” July 2022: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://netzerowatch.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3Dc920274f2a364603849bbb505%26id%3Dd82a27da35%26e%3D9e46528ac6&source=gmail&ust=1657801743497000&usg=AOvVaw0CITru9QpdtRsT0GoCul0L 

83. France’s EDF nuclear fleet output falls, WSJ July 13, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/output-falls-at-edfs-nuclear-fleet-in-france-11657716014?mod=djem_EnergyJournal

84. Dr. Faith Birol, IEA World Energy Crisis May Get Worse, Bloomberg, July 11, 2022: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/worst-of-global-energy-crisis-may-be-ahead-iea-s-birol-warns

85. Reuters, IEA Head Warns of Energy Crisis Ahead, July 11, 2022: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-warns-against-energy-crisis-deepening-fossil-fuel-reliance-2022-05-23/

86. Biden Administration People who have been involved with NGO’s including environmental activist organizations, in previous employment: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.influencewatch.org/hub/biden-administration/&source=gmail&ust=1657815704950000&usg=AOvVaw3zBWJk3t2fOycYaS438bpg

87. World Economic Forum States that Gas Prices must go higher: https://climatechangedispatch.com/world-economic-forum-save-democracy-gas-prices-go-higher/

88. S&P Global Natural Gas Use for Fertilizer production, surging natural gas prices, cause fertilizer costs to soar Jan 19, 2022: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/011922-fertilizer-costs-natural-gas-prices

89. Donn Dears article on SEC Net Zero Carbon Policies: https://bit.ly/3tNINPz

 90. Donn Dears, How Europe Dithers on Energy Policy: https://bit.ly/3DDGj9O

91. SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project) : http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm

92. National News on Nuclear Power needed for the future carbon free generation January 23, 2022: https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2022/01/18/race-to-cut-carbon-emissions-splits-u-s-states-on-nuclear-b/#.Ye2BWS-B2J9

93. Reuters, List of Coal Plants Scheduled to be shut down: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-coal-fired-power-plants-scheduled-shut-2021-10-28/

94. Michael Schellenberger article on German experience of “Green Power”: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/?sh=6da16be6ea2b

95. NERC Long Term Reliability study: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2021.pdf

96. WSJ article on cost of wind turbines, August 21, 2021: https://www.wsj.com/articles/wind-turbine-makers-struggle-to-profit-from-renewable-energy-boom-11629711002?mod=djem_EnergyJournal

97. WSJ article on Blackrock Investments in China: https://www.wsj.com/articles/soros-beijing-blackrock-mutual-fund-savings-housing-bubble-sse-hkex-ccp-xi-jinping-china-11631221987?mod=article_relatedinline

98. WSJ article on CA Blackouts, Aug 2020: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-california-keeps-having-blackouts-11598198401?mod=article_inline

99. WSJ Article explaining CA power pricing/shortages wsj 2002: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1032141100214262955?mod=article_inline

100. Davos, World Economic Forum website on Climate Change: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/climate-change-emissions-environment-paris-agreement-emitters/

101. World Nuclear Organization. June 2021: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/world-energy-needs-and-nuclear-power.aspx

102. Nuclear Power Future for Sustainable Living and improved “Human Development Index” for the world: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-the-environment/nuclear-energy-and-sustainable-development.aspx

103. U.S. Dept. of Energy Dept. Nuclear Research into SMR’s: https://www.energy.gov/ne/advanced-small-modular-reactors-smrs

104. EIA Battery Storage as of August 2021: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49236

105. Capital Research Center, Nov. Dec. 2021 Issue: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf

106. WUWT Blog on Global Fuels Use, July 11, 2021: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/07/11/2020-global-energy-data-shows-fossil-fuels-completely-dominate-world-energy-use/

 

American Dream = 100 Quadrillion Btus 

Introduction

The recent Supreme Court ruling which  trimmed the power of the EPA is important to provide for less government restrictions and for the freedom of future Americans to enjoy the “American Dream”. This post is based on the importance of energy to power our way of life. Each American uses about a million Btus of energy each day. Energy fuels our way of life. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has kept track of the total primary energy use of America for many years. Total primary energy use has held steady at about 100 quads (+/-10) per year for the last 23 years. Total Primary Energy includes all forms of energy. The Energy Flow Chart for 2021 is copied below:

Total Energy Flow Chart for the U.S. in 2021
LLNL TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY FLOW CHART 2021: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov

Total Primary Energy Supply 1999-2021 about 100 Quadrillion Btu’s

A fair question is, what does the Supreme Court ruling on the EPA’s right to regulate carbon have to do with living the American Dream? Here is my answer. If we accept that the U.S. requires 100 quadrillion Btus of energy to power our high quality of living, then how can we continue living our good lives if over 80% of the fuel we depend on is considered unavailable by the government? Yes, from the LLNL figure above, (in Quads) 35.1 Petroleum + 10.5 Coal +31.3 Natural Gas +8.13 nuclear power   = 85.03 quadrillion Btus which is 87.4 % of the 97.3 Quads of Total Primary Energy.

Thermal energy is important for every American. The 87.4% includes nuclear. Therefore, the total primary energy provided from conventional forms of energy is 87.4%.

The government, “Woke” Business leaders, celebrities and many in the media have pushed the fantasy of achieving American energy needs from 100% solar and wind by 2030 or 2050.  To attempt to be polite, thinking we can replace conventional forms of energy within a few years is being detached from reality and delusional. Let me explain why I believe this to be so by looking at the last 23 years of energy use to show where we came from in two decades and to then look into the future to see the next two decades:

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 1999

The 1999 Sankey diagram (above) shows total energy use in the U.S. of 96.6  quadrillion Btus. I stated above that America’s total primary energy has held pretty steady for decades. So, here is the factual data of energy flows from 1999. Over the years, the fuel sources have changed but the total primary energy required to power our lives and economy has remained fairly constant, right at 100 quadrillion Btus.  In 1999 coal was 23.3 quadrillion Btus and natural gas 19.29. The “Shale Gas Revolution” which began about 2010 created production of low cost natural gas which displaced much of the coal used for power generation. This fuel substitution of natural gas for coal was mostly for economic dispatch reasons of a more economical fuel for power generation. By the way, if you compare the natural gas prices/million Btus to coal today, coal looks far more reasonable in cost.

EIA Data and authors notes

Total Primary Energy is Needed for Electricity Generation Plus… Industry, Transportation, Commercial and Residential

The graph below was prepared by the EIA to illustrate the production and use of total energy in the U.S.A. from 1950 to 2020. This also supports the statement that America has used right at 100 Quadrillion Btus for the last 23 years. This includes all forms of energy and including coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind, Biomass, geothermal. As can be seen from the graph, energy independence was achieved in 2020. This was largely as the result of increased oil and natural gas production within the U.S.A.

Total primary energy production and consumption 1950-2020

The Fantasy of Wind and Solar Replacing Conventional Energy and Achieving Net-Zero Carbon by 2050

Fossil fuels plus nuclear energy provided over 87% of America’s total primary energy for the year 2021. This is a fact. (as shown on the first chart above from LLNL) It is also a fact that wind and solar together provided about 5% of our total primary energy. The question needs to be asked, Is it reasonable to expect solar and wind to replace the energy currently provided by petroleum, natural gas, coal and nuclear? I say NO it is not reasonable to expect solar and wind to replace coal, oil, gas and nuclear any time soon. Yes, wind and solar are being forced on America by the energy policies and incentives of government, but it is implausible to expect the total of 100 Quadrillion Btu’s equivalent of energy to come from wind and solar. In my opinion, impossible until there are major technological advancements.

Here are eleven reasons why Net-Zero Carbon is Not Practical within the next 28 years:

  • The land area of 100% renewables required is enormous. The energy density of solar and wind is far too low(1)
  • Electricity storage is not yet technologically advanced for commercial applications at Utility scale for long time periods
  • If all Internal Combustion Engines for ground transportation are electrified, then it exacerbates the first two points. It still takes about the same primary energy content to move vehicles no matter what fuel or energy source is used. Example, EV’s need charging to provide motive force
  • Solar and Wind are not Dispatchable. They provide maximum output as nature provides when the wind blows and the sun shines, not as Citizen electricity demand requires
  • About 8-10% of petroleum is refined into Jet Fuel. Hydrogen fueled aircraft may be safe & practical some day, but that someday is decades away.
  • Fertilizer and food production uses between 2 and 5% of total primary energy. This cannot be replaced with wind and solar
  • The Transmission and Distribution network of the electric Grid is not setup for solar and wind systems. It takes time to permit, design and construct T&D systems
  • Oil, coal and natural gas provide raw materials for textiles, rubber, plastics and many other products that the world depends on
  • Coking coal is required to produce the best quality steel from iron ore
  • Cement production requires fuel for production
  • Nuclear power is the largest provider of carbon free energy, yet there is only one new nuclear plant under construction in the U.S. The Georgia Power Plant Vogtle Units 2 &3

All Fuels are Important and a Balanced Energy Portfolio is Preferred

America has been depending on coal power for many years. Although not appreciated by the media and even some Utility Exec’s, coal remains important. I will cite three examples below: First the U.S. Grid Electric Generation by fuel type for the weeks of September 25 -October 2, 2021 and from June 10- 16, 2022. Note the Dispatchable power of over 80% in both cases, with coal providing a significant portion of the generation. Also shown below are screen shots of actual generation by fuel for both the MISO and PJM RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators)

From EIA U.S. Grid Monitor website
MISO Energy Generation by Fuel: https://www.misoenergy.org
PJM Interconnection: https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations

The four illustrations above show examples of the importance of coal fuel to electric power generation for the lower 48 states, for the Midcontenent Independent System Operator and for the PJM Interconnection. All four examples show significant generation by Dispatchable power: coal, gas and nuclear. These four charts could be considered “A Balanced Generation Portfolio” By balanced, I mean fuel diversity of nuclear, gas, coal and renewables. This is good, however, the current U.S. Path is to shutdown many of the coal plants that were participating in the above “examples. Take a look at the EIA report that states 12.6 GW of coal plants to retire by 2022. (4)

Also, the recent closures of Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan and the William Zimmer 1300 MW coal plant near Cincinnati.

Coal, The American Treasure of Energy

When I was active in the American Coal Council we had an interesting speaker from the National Coal Council, on the coal, oil and gas reserves within the borders of the U.S. The speaker (Robert Beck) presented a study of using captured CO2 to force oil still trapped beneath Ohio’s old oil fields. As I recall, the presentation summary was that any place that coal is found, so is oil and gas. Thus, if you look at a map of U.S. coal deposits, sure enough, gas and oil has also been produced. Getting back to the National Coal Council presentation, the statement was made that about 3 million barrels a day of oil could be recovered from the “Old abandoned” Ohio Oil fields of decades ago, by using enhanced oil recovery of pressurizing the oil deposits with CO2 captured from the many coal plants in Ohio.(5) Here below is an illustration of world coal reserves. It could be said, the U.S. likely has the largest fossil fuel reserves in the world. The statement made by a coal expert that I heard ten years ago seems true, “Wherever there is coal, so is there oil and gas”. Texas, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and North Dakota all have coal and all have had significant oil and gas production since Hydraulic Fracturing combined with directional drilling has been utilized.

Why should our politicians cripple our economy over the politically inspired (not Environmental protection driven) U.N. -IPCC, Paris agreement?(56,57,58,59) America can be Energy Independent. We were in 2020 and we can do it again!

From EIA and American Geosciences sources

Meanwhile in China

China is the world’s largest producer of aluminum and steel. They also are the largest manufacturing nation on the planet. This manufacturing might is powered mostly by coal power. China gets it and they are diligently working toward a “Balanced Generation Portfolio” of coal, nuclear, wind, solar and gas.(51, 52, 53) Russia is conveniently in an excellent geographic and economic position to supply coal, oil, nuclear and gas to China to power their industrial output.

BP Statistical Review
World Nuclear Association website(10)

China is a large country that is committed to increasing the size of their economy. Powering manufacturing requires large amounts of reliable, reasonable cost electricity generation. China has a truly “Balanced Portfolio of Generation Capacity”, including nuclear as shown above and also enormous amounts of renewable power from the Three Gorges Hydroelectric plant which is over 22 GW in capacity, as well as wind, solar and coal. I thought I should interject the energy facts regarding China’s Bulk Power Generation, because competing with them will require reasonable cost Bulk Power here. Especially for energy intensive manufacturing such as aluminum smelting and other primary metals production.

Conclusions from Excerpts of Vaclav Smil book, “Power Density” on the Use of Wind, Water and Solar to Generate most of Our Electricity

Vaclav Smil has written many books on Energy, Power and Electricity generation. His book “POWER DENSITY” for this discussion is particularly relevant. Copied below are excerpts from the final chapter of “POWER DENSITY”:

“What Would it Take”

“If you are willing to engage in unbounded science and engineering fiction, then acccording to Jacobson and Delucchi (2011), this is what it would take to supply the world with 100% renewable energy in 2030 by using electricity (generated by wind, water and solar PV installations) and electrolytic hydrogen for all purposes: 3.8 million 5-MW wind turbines, 49,000 300-MW central solar plants, 1.7 billion 3-kW rooftop PV installations, 5,350 100-MW geothermal plants, 270 new 1.3 GW hydro stations, 720,000 0.75-MW wave devices and 490,000 1-MW tidal turbines. All of that will require only about 0.4% of the world’s land for its footprint and 0.6% for spacing, and we are assured that the barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic as the energy cost in a new wind-water-solar world should be similar to that today” (The above is quoting from Jacobson and Delucchi)

Smil continues (from pg 244, Power Density)

“These assurances asides, the simplest reality check shows the fictional nature of these assumptions. In 2013 the worldwide capacity in wind turbines reached 330 GW, while 13 TW (40 times as much) would be needed by 2030. Total rooftop and large plant PV capacity reached about 100 GW, but 17.1 TW of these installations would be required (170 times as much); moreover, there was not a single 300-MW solar PV plant (five plants rated between 200-250 MW), whereas 40,000 would be needed by 2030. In 2013 there was only one central solar power facility rated at more than 300 MW, Ivanpah, at 392 MW, but nearly 5,000 such facilities would be needed by 2030 (an increase of four orders of magnitude). There were fewer than 50 geothermal stations rated at more than 100 MW, but 5,350 would be needed (a 100-fold increase). Pelamis (2014, the world’s most advanced wave energy company, produced six 0.75 MW devices by the beginning of 2014, but 720,000 would need to be operating by 2030 (an increase of five orders of magnitude). Finally, by 2013 there were fewer than ten small tidal stations with aggregate installed power of much less than 1 GW, while 490 GW would have to generate by 2030 (two orders of magnitude more).

Such ramping-up of all kinds of capacities-design, permitting, financing, engineering, construction, all going up between one and five orders of magnitude in less than two decades-is far, far beyond anything that has been witnessed in less than two decades-is far, far beyond anything that has been witnessed in more than a century of developing modern energy systems. And that still leaves out two other key facts, namely, that such a gargantuan renewable energy system would need an enormous expansion of high-voltage transmission and would require the creation of an entirely new, hydrogen-based society. I am still not sure how we would fly with hydrogen (or electricity) or smelt pig iron. In any case the chances of a 100% water-wind-solar world to be ready by 2030 are nil, but it is worth while exploring what it would (realistically) take to create an increasingly nonfossil global energy system.” The preceding “What Would it Take” is a direct quotation from Smil’s book, pages 243-245.

Summary & Conclusions:

In my opinion, Vaclav Smil in the preceding paragraphs captured the essence of the fictional engineering that can create a path to Net-Zero Carbon by 2050. In the references that follow, Donn Dears and others have come to similar conclusions on the futility of achieving Net-Zero Carbon.

With regard to Anthropogenic Climate Change, I have included some references from expert Climate and Atmospheric Scientists that know the topic well.(2,7,8,9,10,12,13,15,16,56,58,59)

Climate Policies and the UN-IPCC are driven by politics and not by science or a sincere interest in saving the planet. Some references which support this claim are also included for further reading.(56,58,59)

I will close with seven conclusions, which are:

  • The Economic Harm to the U.S. if the Path to Net-Zero Carbon with solar and wind and without nuclear power as a major component, will weaken the U.S.A. and harm our capability to compete in world markets. Especially competing with China and the rest of the world in manufacturing.(2, 3, 4, 7, 8 & 9)
  • Dispatchable Coal Plants should not be shut down until they are replaced by proven and commissioned “Dispatchable” generating capacity. Shutting down 12.6MW of coal plants as planned, will lead to Blackouts and Brownouts(4,22,25, 26, 27)
  • Depending on wind and solar to replace the existing 2022 still operational coal and nuclear plants will lead to increased electricity costs as well as reduced reliability(14, 36)
  • China is the world’s largest manufacturer and will remain ahead of the U.S. and gain further if the U.S. continues down the Net-Zero Carbon Path(17, 18, 19, 28)
  • America invented nuclear power (Rickover) for peaceful purposes and was the world leader in developing nuclear power for peaceful purposes. We have lost that lead and China and Russia are building more nuclear power plants in the world than the U.S. Most of our problems are unessessary Federal Regulations(11, 51,53,57)
  • Energy Independence plus reasonable cost, abundant and Dispatchable Electricity are pre-requisites for a strong economy and a strong National Defense. America should expand and increase our treasures of nuclear, coal, oil and gas forms of energy to reachieve Energy Independence.(5)
  • The U.S. should use all of the energy resources within our borders to be 100% Energy Independent. This includes the Treasure of Coal Energy which we know how to burn cleanly.(30, 31, 32)

Respectfully submitted,

Dick Storm, July 4th, 2022

References for Further Reading:

  1. Vaclav Smil Book, “POWER DENSITY” The MIT Press 2015
  2. Donn Dears Book, Net-Zero Carbon, The Climate Policy Destroying America” 2022
  3. Donn Dears website, numerous article on the foolishness of Zero Carbon policies, EV’s and Power Generation: https://ddears.com/donns-articles/
  4. EIA Report on 12.6 GW of Coal Plants to Close in 2022, January 2022: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50838
  5. National Coal Council, Carbon Collection and use for Enhanced Oil Recovery, 2012: http://www.nationalcoalcouncil.org/reports/07-10-12-NCC_Harnessing_Coals_Carbon_Content_to_Advance_Economy_Environment_EnergySecurity.pdf
  6. Capital Research Center, Nov. Dec. 2021 Issue article on the impossibility of replacing conventional energy with solar and wind: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf
  7. The Right Stuff Climate Team (Retired NASA Engineers): https://www.therightclimatestuff.com
  8. CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH CENTER REPORT, PRIMER ON ENERGY (GOOD REFERENCE WITH EXCELLENT FIGURES) https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46723
  9. Dr. Judith Curry, 15 slides to summarize Climate Change website: https://judithcurry.com/2021/09/03/15-minutes/#more-27827
  10. Science and Environment Policy Project  Website: http://www.sepp.org
  11. World Nuclear Association, Status of Nuclear Power in China: https://www.world-nuclear.org/country/default.aspx/China
  12. Global Warming Policy Foundation: https://www.thegwpf.org
  13. Mark Mills, The Myth of Renewable Energy: https://www.manhattan-institute.org/the-myth-of-the-great-energy-transition
  14. WSJ, Wind Stops in Europe: https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-prices-in-europe-hit-records-after-wind-stops-blowing-11631528258?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
  15. A key segment begins at minute 24 where the effects of CO2 are discussed by Professor Happer. https://bit.ly/3zsXcS6
  16. SKY NEWS SUN ACTIVITY AFFECTS EARTH TEMPERATURE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViY2J3LPgN4
  17. China buying Russian oil, gas and coal, Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asian-buyers-russian-oil-gas-coal-2022-02-22/
  18. China-Russian Energy Deal, February 2022: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-china-may-sign-energy-other-deals-amid-moscow-tension-with-west-2022-02-03/
  19. Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as World’s largest oil supplier, June 20, 2022 Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/china-buys-7-5-billion-of-russian-energy-with-oil-at-record
  20. Korea Times, China depends on Sanctioned Russian Fuel, June 20, 2022: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2022/06/501_331352.html
  21. Utility Dive, Capacity Auction Prices, June 25,2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-capacity-auction-nuclear-solar-coal-prices/625861/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-06-22%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:42604%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive
  22. Detroit News, Consumers Energy to End Coal Use in 2025: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2022/06/23/michigan-panel-approves-consumers-energy-plan-end-coal-use-2025/7716918001/
  23. Alliant and WEC Change Plans to Retire Coal to Meet Demand, June 22, 2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wisconsin-utilities-coal-retirement-miso-delay/626005/
  24. WSJ Report on Ameren Keeping Rush Island Operating to Satisfy Demand June 10, 2022:https://www.wsj.com/articles/old-coal-plant-neared-retirement-but-now-its-needed-to-keep-the-lights-on-11654858801?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
  25. WSJ May 8, 2022, Power Plants Struggling With Electricity Shortages to Keep Power on: https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=0&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s 
  26. WSJ June 18, 2022, West Risks Blackouts From Drought and loss of Hydroelectric Capacity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/west-risks-blackouts-as-hydroelectric-power-dries-up-11624008601?mod=article_inline  
  27. WSJ, Opinion, May 27, 2022, Jason Hayes, “Why Blackouts are Coming to Michigan” Regarding shutdown of Palisades Nuclear Generating Plant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-electricity-blackouts-are-coming-to-michigan-nuclear-power-plant-green-energy-renewable-climate-11653685521?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=5&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s
  28. The Guradian (UK) China’s Premier Calls For More Coal Plants, June 24, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/24/chinese-premier-calls-for-more-coal-production-as-electricity-demand-soars 
  29. Global Food Supply at Risk Due to High Energy Prices, The Guardian, June 25, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/25/our-global-food-supply-is-at-risk-when-high-gas-prices-limit-the-creation-of-fertiliser
  30. US and World Coal Reserves Map: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Coal-reserves-volumes-by-countries-of-the-world-3_fig1_328037099
  31. EIA 2nd reference on World Coal Reserves, EIA 2011: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=2930
  32. American Geosciences institute, World Coal Reserves: https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/maps/interactive-map-coal-resources-united-states
  33. EIA Total Energy Use 1950-2020: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43515
  34. St. Louis Fed. Renewable Power Increases have reduced Conventional Power Generation Capacity Factors, thus weakening cash flow for O&M and improvements: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/10/renewables-have-increased-the-capacity-for-electricity-production/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
  35. Fact Check on Wind Power Cost: https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/does-wind-work-without-subsidies/
  36. Forbes, Michael Schellenberger article on True Cost of Wind Power: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/04/20/why-renewables-cause-blackouts-and-increase-vulnerability-to-extreme-weather/?sh=6400daf54e75 
  37. EPA Retains Tools to Harm Coal Power Production, Utility Dive, July 1, 2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/supreme-court-epa-GHG-carbon-power-plant/626456/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-07-01%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:42837%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive
  38. VOX, Electrify Everything! : https://www.vox.com/2016/9/19/12938086/electrify-everything
  39. Stanford, Mark Jacobson, Net Zero Carbon by 2050 : https://news.stanford.edu/2015/06/08/50states-renewable-energy-060815/
  40. Jacobson’s website: https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
  41. UN Net Zero Carbon website: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition  
  42.  Princeton University Net Zero Carbon Plan: Net Zero Carbon Project Princeton University Researchers, Jenkins et al: https://cmi.princeton.edu/annual-meetings/annual-reports/year-2019/the-net-zero-america-project-finding-pathways-to-a-carbon-neutral-future/
  43. Princeton University, additional presentations on reduced carbon emissions: https://cmi.princeton.edu/presentations/year-2022/
  44. Cornell Daily Sun, Speaker discusses Coal Plants in a Death Spiral: https://cornellsun.com/2016/10/03/keynote-speaker-investigates-recent-transformations-in-the-energy-grid/
  45. WSJ Australia Warning on Green Energy Risks:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-warning-from-australias-power-crisis-green-energy-anthony-albanese-11655659465?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=3&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s
  46. National News on Nuclear Power needed for the future carbon free generation January 23, 2022: https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2022/01/18/race-to-cut-carbon-emissions-splits-u-s-states-on-nuclear-b/#.Ye2BWS-B2J9
  47. Reuters, List of Coal Plants Scheduled to be shut down: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-coal-fired-power-plants-scheduled-shut-2021-10-28/
  48. S&P Global Natural Gas Use for Fertilizer production, surging natural gas prices, cause fertilizer costs to soar Jan 19, 2022: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/011922-fertilizer-costs-natural-gas-prices
  49. Michael Schellenberger article on German experience of “Green Power”: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/?sh=6da16be6ea2b
  50. NERC Long Term Reliability study: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2021.pdf
  51. MSNBC China and Russian Reactor Designs Dominate New Construction, Warns IEA Chief,  July 2022: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/russian-and-chinese-designs-in-87percent-of-new-nuclear-reactors-iea-chief.html
  52. Bloomberg, China’s Climate Goals Depend on 440 Billion Nuclear Power Plant Buildout: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s
  53. IEA Global Energy Outlook, April 2022: https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/global-energy-outlook-2022/
  54. IEA Publications Available: https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/
  55. Three Gorges Dam, 22.5 MW : https://www.britannica.com/topic/Three-Gorges-Dam
  56. Climate Sensitivity is Likely Low Enough to be of Little Concernhttps://everythingclimate.wpcomstaging.com/emissions-climate-models/
  57. Nuclear Power Is Poised for a Comeback. (In U.S.) The Problem Is Building the Reactors, WSJ July 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nuclear-power-climate-change-russia-energy-11655995024?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1
  58. United Nations-IPCC Reports Are Not Science: http://sepp.org/twtwfiles/2022/TWTW%206-25-2022.pdf
  59. Donn Dears, IPCC Report, Part 1: https://bit.ly/3Aeruea

Believer in Freedom to use of Energy for sustainable high quality lives