I was recently invited to a local civic club and my host asked that I focus on the limitations of minerals and difficulty of replacing conventional fuels with wind and solar. Here are some of the slides and my explanation which I used to attempt to drive the point home: The U.S. does not have an orderly and rational energy transition plan only a “War on Carbon”. In my opinion, conventional energy will be needed far beyond 2050 if we are to continue our high quality of life and freedom of travel.

Here are some of the challenges and impracticality of replacing fossil fuels with carbon free energy. Let’s start with food and agriculture. About 1% of the total primary energy used in the world is consumed for producing fertilizer. Ammonia fertilizer is incredibly important to food production. Vaclav Smil has researched and written that if production of synthetic ammonia fertilizer was stopped, then about 50% of the world’s population could not be fed.

The figure above shows a modern farm tractor powered by Diesel fuel. The table below shows the sources of 94% of our primary energy used during the year 2022. Wind and solar provided less than 6% of our Primary Energy.

The bottom line on primary energy is simply this.   

Over 90% of our primary energy is provided by conventional sources and that if reduced carbon emissions are really to be achieved, there needs to be a rational path forward. Not the irrational and unthoughtful path of demonizing and attempting to ban fossil fuels. Let’s move on to see why Net-Zero Carbon is impossible to achieve by 2050 using the current policies from Washington. That is, impossible if we are still to keep our freedom and our high quality of life.

Just as a reminder: Electricity is Secondary energy. It takes Primary energy to generate electricity. Forms of primary energy are nuclear, natural gas, coal, biomass, hydro plants, wind, geothermal and solar. _{(1, 26 & 27)}

What Would it Take to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon by 2050?

My friend Donn Dears wrote numerous books on the destructive war on carbon. In fact, he was the inspiration for me to start this blog. Unfortunately, Donn recently passed away, but he left a legacy of books on energy education for us to refer. His last book published in 2023 is “Clean Energy Crisis”. In this book, Mr. Dears lays out the facts of what it would take to replace conventional fossil fuel energy. In chapter 8, here is his basic analysis:

It should be pointed out that the above refers to replacement of Primary energy from fossil fuels for electricity generation to be replaced by carbon free sources. Reminder: Bulk Power electricity requires about 37% of Primary energy. The other 63% of primary energy is used for motor vehicle use, shipping, Industrial production, jet fuel, heating of homes, commercial buildings, cooking, food production and agriculture.

The Reality of the transition to renewables, according to Mr. Dears is summarized in two statements:

1. It is impossible for the United States to achieve Net-Zero carbon by 2050.
2. CO₂ is not an existential threat to mankind.

These two statements are direct quotations from chapter #8 of “Clean Energy Crisis” by Donn Dears.

Conclusions

Here are some of the Reasons why I also believe achieving Net-Zero Carbon is Impossible by 2050:

1. There are limited mining and production facilities to produce the Metals to Build Batteries and EV’s
2. Wind whether offshore or on Land Requires Enormous Acreage ₍₂₂₎
3. Wind & Solar Provide Intermittent & Non Dispatchable Generation
4. Battery Electricity Storage Technology is Not yet Commercially Available for Long Term Storage of Bulk Power
5. U.S. Regulations on Mining & Manufacturing are Too Restrictive
6. U.S. Heavy Manufacturing Cannot Ramp Up in Time. The American manufacturing facilities for nuclear power plant components has been lost and needs to be rebuilt. This will take decades.
7. China controls much of the critical minerals, materials and manufacturing
8. The required number of new nuclear power plants cannot be designed, manufactured and constructed by 2050
9.  Hopefully, the American People Will become informed and vote for energy wise leadership that will implement practical and science based energy and climate policies

The current path to Net Zero Carbon is a fictional delusion driven by the largest scientific hoax in history.

Respectfully submitted and yours very truly,

Dick Storm, February 3, 2024

References

1. EIA Primary energy data for year 2022: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20total%20U.S.%20primary,equal%20to%20100.41%20quadrillion%20Btu. 
2. Vaclav Smil in World Agriculture magazine: https://www.vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/docs/smil-article-worldagriculture.pdf
3. McKinsey Report on Inflation Reduction Act Funding: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/the-inflation-reduction-act-heres-whats-in-it
4. LinkedIn post by Dick Storm of his comments on panel at PowerGen International, Jan. 24, 2024: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_i-had-the-honor-of-being-on-a-powergen-panel-activity-7156046708139782144-zPoZ?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
5. The Energy Trilemma and the Cost of Electricity, by Dr. Lars Shernikau., Eurasia Review: https://www.eurasiareview.com/17012024-the-energy-trilemma-and-the-cost-of-electricity-oped/  
6. Chapter 8, pg 58. “Clean Energy Crisis” by Donn Dears, 2023
7. “How the World Really Works” by Vaclav Smil
8. GTK “Time to Wake Up” report and presentation on critical minerals of the world, Finland-GTK Minerals Needed for Net-Zero Carbon: https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/42_2021.pdf  
9. GTK Slides, “Time to Wake Up”: https://www.gtk.fi/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/GTK-time-to-wake-up-presentation-slides.pdf
10. Dick Storm presentation, “Demystifying Energy and Electricity Generation” to Sunset Rotary Club, Nov. 14, 2022.
11. Dick Storm presentation to Sunset Rotary, Feb. 27, 2023, “The Importance of Energy”
12.  WTO Report on critical minerals: https://www.wto.org/english/blogs_e/data_blog_e/blog_dta_10jan24_e.htm
13.  National Mining Association website which has much information on the critical minerals needed by America: https://nma.org
14. Tennessee Bans UN Agenda 30 and Agenda 21, New American, Jan. 11, 2024: https://thenewamerican.com/us/politics/tennessee-bans-agenda-2030-other-globalist-un-schemes/
15. IEA World Energy statistics: https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-information-overview/consumption
16. Statista
17. Our World in Data
18. Visual Capitalist
19.  Dick Storm presentation to Columbus, Ohio Energy Forum, “There is NO Energy Policy, Only a Decarbonization Policy” ENERUM: Dick Storm Presentation, August 2022: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_presentation-and-speakers-notes-from-august-activity-7068650158862827520-B-_W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
20. Donn Dears book, “Clean Energy Crisis” available on Amazon
21.  David Blackmon on the proposed 22 million acre solar farm proposed for the western U.S. : https://open.substack.com/pub/blackmon/p/mondays-energy-absurdity-bidens-22?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
22. Gov’t proposal for 22 million acres of western land for solar panels. EcoWatch, January 2024: https://www.ecowatch.com/solar-energy-development-public-lands-blm.html
23. WUWT 2023 Summary of Good articles on true Climate Science, Jan. 6, 2024: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/10/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-582/
24. CO2 Coalition home page: https://co2coalition.org
25. Clintel Declaration (European Scientists): https://clintel.org/world-climate-declaration/
26. Finland-GTK Minerals Needed for Net-Zero Carbon: https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/42_2021.pdf
27. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Primary Energy Flow Charts: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov