How Can a 6,000 MW Regional Utility in 2030 which Likely Will Be a 9,000 MW Utility in 2050… Achieve Net Zero Carbon?

This is an update on my comments to the IRP development for my local Regional Utility, Santee-Cooper. The last draft IRP has been published for comment and the figure below shows the expected load growth up to 2042. This Figure is from page 28 of the IRP presentation updated in April 2023. Shockingly, there is serious planning to shut down all coal plants by 2034 without having a Balanced Portfolio of replacement Bulk Power Supply that is Dispatchable, affordable and of reliable supply. Some energy news/issues authors, when discussing energy policy, speak metaphorically of “Falling off the Cliff” The illustration of projected load growth for Santee-Cooper is an example of planning to “Fall off the Cliff” by (NOT) Balancing Bulk Power Supply & load Demand. (The graph reminds me of the old saying, “Failing to Plan is a Plan for Failure”. How? By not providing adequate new generation capacity as older, reliable, dependable and Dispatchable coal units are retired. This is typical all across the U.S. and the western free world(6,10,14,15,15,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,27)

I had hoped that the more conservative, level headed General Assembly of S.C. would have better sense than to follow the “Woke policy” of the U.S. government and other states. There is still time to wake up to reality. (5,8)

Here is my followup comments to the Santee-Cooper IRP (Integrated Resource Plan) for future electricity generation through 2042. It is my hope that the S.C. General Assembly will provide direction to Santee-Cooper to properly maintain and keep all of their existing coal plants operational until such time that sufficient nuclear and natural gas Base Load and Dispatchable generation capacity is installed and proven to be operational. This is my hope. Many references are provided on my blog for anyone interested.

The slide below is from my ENERUM presentation, August 2022. Data and chart are from the July 2022 NERC Report.(10) This shows 102 GW of Dispatchable & Reliable coal and nuclear plants shut down since 2011. This is shown to illustrate the fact that Santee-Cooper seems to be following the same destructive path as other utilities in the U.S.

Can a Great 80+ Year Record of Reliability and Affordability be Sustained While Retiring Coal Plants? Is S.C. Self Sabotaging our Great Record of Reasonable Cost, Reliable Bulk Power Supply? Why? Can the Legislature Stop the Madness?

It is my understanding, that the management of Santee-Cooper has been directed to formulate a plan to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050. Anyone that knows me, knows that I do not agree with this plan and my posts on this blog and my public presentations have clearly shown my analysis of the madness of Net Zero Carbon & the War on Coal. I have written letters to Santee-Cooper, the Governor, Congressional representatives and my S.C. Senator. Most of these have been made public. Myself and others that have knowledge of energy and electricity generation know that the path to Net Zero carbon is not possible by 2050.(4,5,6,7,8) Not without severe disruption of our way of life, our economy, industrial output, controlling inflation and national security. It is important for our state to generate electricity reliably, with high quality frequency and voltage control, from Dispatchable generators to meet customer Demand and do this 24/7 affordably under all weather conditions…..This has been done by Santee-Cooper for almost 90 years. Thanks to the reliability of coal, nuclear, natural gas generation and hydro-electric. Why would the Legislature force this fine Utility to sabotage its great record? The chart below is from the 2020 IRP. This lists the Dispatchable, Reliable, Affordable generating assets that have created and continue to provide a great record. In essence, the apparent path of the IRP update is to replace 61% of the reliable coal generation with “Intermittent” solar and wind generation.

Path to Jeopardizing S.C. Bulk Power Affordability, Reliability and Dispatchability

The S.C. Legislature has directed Santee-Cooper through “Act 90” to meet a net zero carbon goal by 2050.

The slide above is copied from the Santee-Cooper IRP presentation. My understanding is, that this is the direction ordered by the legislature. A plan to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050.

There is active planning to not only shut down the 1,150 MW Winyah coal plant in 2028 but also to shut down the 2,350 MW Cross Coal plant about five years later so that in 2034 all coal plants will be shut down. This is shown on the slides below. Shutting down all coal plants by 2034, in my opinion, will jeopardize the very favorable record of reasonable cost, reliable and Dispatchable electricity Bulk Power Supply that has become associated with Santee-Cooper’s great reputation. Even more importantly, South Carolina’s excellent record of attracting and keeping a thriving industrial base within this region. Electricity intensive industries such as aluminum and steel manufacturers/Recyclers have thrived here as manufacturers in other states have ended operations and ceded U.S. manufactured steel and aluminum capacity to China.

Let me digress and quote Vaclav Smil’s statement on decarbonization. From Professor Smil’s book, “How the World Really Works” This applies to S.C. Too!

“The real wrench in the works: we are a fossil-fueled civilization whose technical and scientific advances, quality of life, and prosperity rest on the combustion of huge quantities of fossil carbon, and we cannot simply walk away from this critical determinant of our fortunes in a few decades, never mind years. Complete decarbonization of the global economy by 2050 is now conceivable only at the cost of unthinkable global economic retreat, or as a result of extraordinarily rapid transformations relying on near-miraculous technical advances.” Smil continues….

But who is going, willingly, to engineer decarbonization while we are still lacking any convincing, practical, affordable global strategy and technical means to pursue the latter? What will actually happen? The gap between wishful thinking and reality is vast, but in a democratic society no contest of ideas and proposals can proceed in rational ways without all sides sharing at least a modicum of relevant information about the real world, rather than trotting out their biases and advancing claims disconnected from physical possibilities.”

I have written other posts on this Blog to express my thoughts on competition with China and the importance for America to reshore U.S. manufacturing. This my friends, is in our backyard, our neighborhood, our state. This is a fact as stated above10). Premature retirements of reliable coal plants has been occurring at an alarming rate all across the U.S. Do we have to follow the same foolish self sabotaging policies of NY, Hawaii, Germany, the UK and Texas? I hope not. (12,13,14,15,)

Future Bulk Power Generation Capacity, The Apparent Plan to Self Sabotage Reliable Bulk Power Supply

Expected Outcome of Adding Over 4,250 MW of Non Dispatchable, Intermittent Bulk Power Supply

If all of the coal plants are retired and the portfolio shown above is used. Her are my predictions, based on the experiences of Hawaii, California, Texas, Germany, Denmark and the UK.

California is thought by some in government to be a model for the U.S. with regard to renewable energy policy. I do not agree. Here is a recent post by the CEO of the Electric Power Research Institute on how the California electric load (as reported by CAISO) has morphed from a “Duck Curve to a Canyon Curve”. Here is a screenshot of Dr. Mansoor’s post:

The “Canyon” curve represents high renewable generation during the peak sunshine of the day where California has bragging rights to sourcing almost all of their electricity from solar collectors. This is great until folks come home from work, mom starts dinner in her totally electric home and Dad plugs in his EV for charging. By early evening, electricity demand skyrockets out of the Canyon and must, for the sake of reliability, be generated to meet demand from Dispatchable sources.

Battery storage is not Bulk Power Supply. Batteries store electricity they do not generate electricity. Batteries are capable, depending on the size of the installation, of providing minutes or hours of backup. The largest battery storage in the U.S. is the Vistra Energy, Moss Landing facility in CA. The CAISO load for April 27 is expected to be about 30,000 MW. Note the largest battery storage facility in the world, Moss Landing, is 1600 MW which is about 5% of the Demand and only capable of providing minutes or hours of stored electricity.

Here is another post from another energy expert on LinkedIn. This graphic shows the electric generation through the day which includes battery storage.

The Moss Landing Storage facility is rated at 400/1600 MW and is capable of storing excess renewable generation for hours so that it can be used as the sun sets and kick in as the “Canyon Curve” and CA power supply and Demand Curves above become reality of demand. Emphasis should be on “Hours” it is not capable of backup during a days long cold severe winter storm, such as NC and SC experienced over Christmas week, 2022. Another example is the 150 MW Battery storage designed for Queensland, Australia and an artists depiction below. This is from an essay reviewing the NY electricity future written on the Blog, Watts Up With That.

Battery storage such as shown above is very costly. For example, the 150 MW facility above is projected to cost $250/kWh. Therefore for 12 hours of storage for 450 MW, the cost would be about $1.35 Billion dollars. Keep in mind, this is for 12 hours storage of only 450 MW of power. Winter storms such as the Christmas 2022 storm lasted longer than 12 hours and even very conservative, steeped in energy expertise Duke Energy, also with a great reputation for reliable electric service, had rolling Blackouts. Ditto for TVA(18,19,20,21,22,23).

When the sun is not shining and the wind not blowing, then the generation must be purchased from neighboring Utilities or generated with Dispatchable natural gas generation. The plan shown above includes 4,316 MW of natural gas generation. This combined with the 322 MW of Summer Unit #1 nuclear power totals 4,638 MW. The wind generators, though intermittent, could generate another 400 MW to total 5,038 MW. The projections of up to 9,000 MW Demand in 2050 (according to Santee-Cooper projections) then will require additional Dispatchable generation which is likely to be natural gas CT’s or Combined Cycle facilities. Think for example of the uncertain growth of Electric Vehicles. If much of transportation is “Electrified”, then the high range projections of about 9,000 MW peaks can be expected in 2050 or before. So, why would we kill the coal plants that have served South Carolinians so well?

This reminds me of my experiences working for CP&L in the 1970’s when the manager of Fossil Plant Engineering pointed to an oil fueled CT and proclaimed to me, then a young engineer, “That young man is a monument to poor planning”. Yes, as CP&L (That was before CP&L merged with Florida Progress and was later absorbed by Duke Energy). I see history repeating here as so much faith in renewables today is somewhat like the high expectations of nuclear being “Too Cheap to Meter” beliefs of the 1970’s. However, nuclear power eventually delivered. Wind and solar are not capable of replacing coal, nuclear and gas fueled Bulk Power Generation. In the 1970’s the Bulk Power Supply gaps were made up with quickly installed, oil fueled CT’s. Today, thanks to reliable, affordable natural gas, the backup generation, when solar and wind cannot deliver, is gas fueled CT’s or Combined Cycle plants. This is doable and satisfactory… providing that pipelines are of adequate capacity and natural gas remains affordable and Federal Regulations on drilling, Hydraulic Fracturing, pipelines and fuel supply infra-structure is expanded as needed, when it is needed. The Federal Government is wrong on their war on carbon and the natural gas resources just may not be as abundant in 2040 or 2050 as they are now. Because, the Federal Government currently highly regulates exploration, drilling, production and transport of any fossil fuels. The uncertainty of future primary energy supply is why a Balanced Generation Portfolio is important. A Balanced Energy Portfolio will include nuclear, coal, gas and renewables.

Have the Importance of Reserves Been Forgotten?

Santee-Cooper is a Regional Utility. In other states, such as PA, OH, WVA, NJ & DE many utilities the size of Santee-Cooper have joined RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) such as the PJM Interconnection. In the Midwest it is MISO (Midwestern Independent System Operator) With RTO’s, the electricity generation is shared across state lines and with different utilities with separation of the ownership of the generating plants and the transmission and distribution of the Bulk Power. This has eliminated accountability for individual utilities such as Philadelphia Electric, Potomac Electric Power Company, Public Service of NJ, PP&L and others to plan for Reserve Generation capacity. Therefore, there is no accountability for lack of reserves. I presented examples in my ENERUM talk slides(6) . There is some talk of Santee-Cooper joining a similar RTO with the Southeast Electric Exchange. In my strong opinion and based on the references listed below and my experiences, Santee-Cooper should plan for their own (Our own) reserves. Reserve generation from others states was depended on Christmas week 2022 by TVA and Duke Energy. Two fine utilities, also with great records from the past. But, the reserves from neighboring states were not available due to Demand exceeding supply. Reserves of 15-20% have always been important for reliability and to keep generation costs reasonable by not requiring the startup of backup power generation using high cost fuels such as Diesel or spot market gas. Donn Dears has written several books on this. Here is a graph from the book, “Clean Energy Crisis”, on the Reserve generation that was planned in 2018. However, Texas Blackouts in 2021 killed over 200 people. The ERCOT planners in 2018 had performed due diligence as Santee-Cooper is doing now with well respected consulting services to perform computer analyses of planned reserve margins. Do we need to learn the hard way as Texans did in 2021?

Facts to be Consider regarding Electricity and South Carolina’s High Quality of Life

The experiences of other states and other countries should be considered. I cited the examples of California, Texas and Hawaii above. Much analysis has been put into the planning by some very smart engineers and planners. However, computer modeling of the “Future” weather, fuel prices, EV use, population growth, industrial growth and other uncertainties, will likely create a need for other sources than wind and solar renewables. Just as Texas learned in 2021 after performing similar planning.

Primary Energy and Secondary Energy

Each S.C. resident on average uses about 300 million Btus per year in Primary Energy. If the trend to “Electrify Everything” continues, then more of the energy use currently provided at reasonble prices for transportation and our high quality of life, will be substituted for by (Secondary Energy) electricity or hydrogen. Such as more EV’s as the government is forcing us to use. Therefore, the growth of electricity demand may be much greater than expected. Thus, my title which relates to potential 9,000 MW Demand in 2050.

Over 50% of South Carolina’s electricity has been provided by nuclear power for decades. SC is rated as #3 in the nation in nuclear power generation. Nuclear power has served SC citizens and industry well. Safe, affordable, Base load capable at 90+% capacity factor and proven. However, the great record and importance of nuclear is not discussed by politicians or even utilities. For example, Palmetto Electric promotes the use of “Green Power” when in fact, it is a small contributor to the total portfolio of power generation. Here is an example of “Green indoctrination” by a bill insert that misleadingly leads citizens to believe that most of their power is from renewables:

The reality of our future electricity generation is that nuclear is the most important and least carbon intensive fuel for electricity generation. The plan to expand the Summer nuclear plant with two additional units was a very good idea. However, it was not to be because of poor management, limited trained talent and failure by Bankruptcy of Westinghouse, the primary contractor. The planned new Pee Dee coal plant near Florence was also a good idea and provided for natural growth of generating capacity to meet Demand. Pee Dee, (600 MW coal plant) in my understanding, was killed because of outside influence of Environmental Extremists. Had the Summer Units 2 & 3 and the 600 MW Pee Dee Clean Coal Plant been built as planned, then together these three units would have provided 2,800 MW of Base Load plus reliable, affordable and clean, Dispatchable Bulk Power. Including some reserve generation capacity.

Is the Great State of South Carolina going to sabotage our future just because other countries and states are doing so? I hope not.

Conclusions

  1. The “War on Carbon” is based on politics and corrupted science. It is about Socialism and not about protecting the environment. The South Carolina Legislature seems to be just as gullible of the green myth as the current Federal government leaders.
  2. The UN-IPCC is also Politically Driven and Not based on protection of the environment or to provide for the best interests of the people of the world. The Paris Climate Agreement is not in the best interests of America, the free western world or even for protection of the environment. It is politically motivated.
  3. The path to Net Zero Carbon is steadily weakening our country. It will eventually destroy America’s productive capacity, lower our standard of living and place national security at risk. It will hasten the decline of America and the Rise of China.
  4. America requires 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year to sustain our quality of life. This is about 300 million BTUs per person, per year. Currently, after decades of subsidies, wind and solar provide about 5% of the total PRIMARY energy we use. Wind and solar cannot replace the other 95% of energy we need.
  5. A Balanced Portfolio of Generating Capacity as is currently installed at Santee-Cooper generating plants, is the best path forward to sustain our high quality of life and economic prosperity. Reserve generation from dynamic generators is needed. Battery backup does not provide the same system voltage and frequency control as spinning reserve generator rotors do.
  6. Electric generation planning in the 1970’s and 1980’s was better than today. There is no Energy Policy in America, there is only a decarbonization plan(4,5,6,7), there is no well thought out plan to replace the reliable and dispatchable generating capacity that is being shut down across the country. As during the 1970’s when nuclear units were late coming into service, the quickest available generating capacity was to install gas turbines. This is likely here in SC if the coal plants are retired before Dispatchable or Base Load replacement generation is installed.

Recommendations

  1. Initiate a comprehensive Energy and Electricity Education program to provide 1. public education on energy, 2. Public School education on energy and electricity generation and 3. Public Technical/Trade School education to prepare youth for the construction workforce. Energy Education is recommendation #1 of the path forward. Public education is needed to reverse the myth that wind and solar can replace coal, gas and nuclear power generation. This is priority #1 because so many people are “Green Energy” indoctrinated.
  2. Plan and continue to provide adequate Operations and maintenance funds for repairs and component replacements of the boilers, pumps, turbines and all of the equipment installed at the Cross Coal Plant. Keep the full 2,350 MW capacity so that it can be used until replacement generation is built and proven.
  3. Construct the 600 MW Pee Dee Coal plant that the components were purchased for in 2009.
  4. Plan and begin construction on at least 2,000 MW of nuclear capacity. (as was planned for the Summer Units 2 & 3). Please re-read recommendation #1 above.
  5. Plan and construct at least 1,750 MW of combined cycle gas plants
  6. The coal, nuclear and gas plants 2,3 & 4 could replace the existing Cross coal plant capacity, thus continuing a “Balanced Generation Portfolio”

Summary

South Carolina can be an example of applied Common Sense Energy policies that can be a model for the U.S.A. and for the world. The current reasonable cost electricity in SC is amongst the lowest cost in the nation. Over 50% is generated from 4 nuclear plants with seven units. Four of these 7 nuclear units started up in the 1970’s. These four units operating licenses will expire in the 2030’s. They may be extended for another 20 or 30 years by the NRC but, plans should be made to construct new nuclear units for replacement of carbon free, Dispatchable, reasonable cost electricity.

Every time I present a course on energy and electricity generation the comments come back, “You did not discuss Climate Change and Decarbonization”. My response is, I am not an atmospheric scientist. I am an experienced power engineer. My beef with the current path toward Net Zero Carbon is, there is not an organized plan to replace the vitally important electric generation that has kept our country strong. If the politicians were really serious about reducing carbon dioxide emissions and “Sustaining” our high quality of living, then nuclear plants would be on a fast track to construction. After the Summer 2 & 3 failure, SC politicians are rightfully concerned about the financial risks. Plant Vogtle in GA is an example of a major budget overrun. Last cost estimate that I saw shows that Vogtle will cost $34 Billion and the original planned cost was less than half the ultimate cost. Also, it took ten years to just get one of the units running.

In my opinion and research, I feel the war on carbon is a plan initiated by the U.N. (including competitors/enemies of the U.S.A.) and Socialists that have an agenda other than clean power generation. If we wish to “Sustain our high quality of life“, then we need a reasonable cost, abundant and reliable electricity supply. Nuclear is the most accepted approach to achieving that goal. Three examples of applying a Balanced Energy Portfolio with a high percentage of nuclear are S.C. (1970-2030), Sweden and Finland. For research into why I believe the “War on Carbon” is political, not environmentally driven, I have included dozens of references below. My concern for Santee-Cooper and for America is to keep our Bulk Power Supply safe, secure, reliable and affordable. Also, sourced from a U.S. Supply-Chain.

The Supply-Chain of all of the future generation equipment, in an ideal scenario, would be from U.S. sources. Including manufacturing and construction talent. The workforce education is a weakness that I believe had part in the $9 Billion dollar Summer 2 & 3 construction debacle. We should learn from the past 50 years of electric generating history. The successes and the failures.

Respectfully submitted,

Dick Storm

References

  1. U.S. Department of Energy Statistics on S.C. Energy, EIA.gov.: https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=SC
  2. Excellent Presentation on the BRICS, countries that are the largest energy consumers of the world, by David Blackmon, April 2023: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_slide-presentation-how-china-and-brics-are-activity-7053813181193875457-IO5X?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  3. Nuclear Energy Institute, U.S. nuclear plant capacities and license expirations: https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-nuclear-plant-license-information
  4. Donn Dears book, “Clean Energy Crisis” & Dick Storm comments on Christmas week, 2022:  https://wp.me/p5DzAo-Fg
  5. Vaclav Smil’s book, “How the World Really Works”
  6. Dick Storm presentation to ENERUM, Columbus, Ohio, August 2022, https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_storm-presentation-to-columbus-energy-forum-activity-7056884647858765824-Xcwg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktopColumbus, Ohio
  7. Donn Dears book, “Net Zero Carbon, The Policy Destroying America”
  8. Financial Post Special by Professor Vaclav Smil, June 2022: https://financialpost.com/opinion/vaclav-smil-why-net-zero-2050-really-wont-work
  9. Donn Dears Blog, The Politics of Energy Policy part 2 and links to purchase his books: https://ddears.com/2022/08/08/the-politics-of-energy-part-2/
  10. NERC (North American Reliability Corp) Long Term Reliability study: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2021.pdf
  11. Dick Storm post, “The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be” : https://wp.me/p5DzAo-ek
  12. Professor Furfari article Sept. 2022, Hopeless European Green new Deal: https://clintel.org/the-many-hopeless-european-climate-change-laws/
  13. Germany producing 30% electricity from coal, Business Insider Sept 8, 2022. At least Germany did not destroy their coal plants after they fell out of favor. They were able to restart them when needed in the energy emergency: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-energy-crisis-germany-generates-third-electricity-coal-natural-gas-2022-9
  14.  POWER Magazine, Sonal Patel, Sept 9, 2022, EPA Rules likely to shut down about 86 GW of coal generation in next few years: https://www.powermag.com/group-epas-coordinated-regulatory-assault-on-coal-power-could-push-retirements-beyond-86-gw-by-2030/?oly_enc_id=3247D5884312C9W
  15. Hawaii Glimpse into future of Green New deal: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/06/03/hawaii-a-gimpse-into-the-future-of-the-green-new-deal/
  16. Texas Missing over 6,000 MW and Rockdale Aluminum Smelter 2021: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-7R
  17. Comparison of China and U.S. Energy Use, January 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/18/comparison-of-china-energy-electricity-generation-with-u-s-a/
  18. TVA Rolling Blackouts report in Tennessean, Jan, 2023: https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/2022/12/23/why-tennessee-valley-authority-ordered-rolling-blackouts-in-nashville/69754538007/
  19. N.C. Utilities Commission Testimony of Bradford Muller of Charlotte Pipe and Foundry, Blackouts, Christmas 2022: https://starw1.ncuc.gov/NCUC/ViewFile.aspx?Id=54fbaba6-76d3-4367-abe2-ee3f8fade516 https://nsjonline.com/article/2023/01/muller-the-christmas-catastrophe-near-miss/
  20. N.C. Public Radio Report of Blackouts, Dec. 2022: https://www.wunc.org/2023-01-06/cold-weather-blackouts-challenge-conventional-wisdom-on-reliability
  21.  Great Plains Institute Warning, Aug 2022 of Blackouts due to insufficient Generation capacity:  https://betterenergy.org/blog/qa-blackout-risks-underscore-resilience-reliability-investment-needs-for-us-power-grid/
  22. MISO Blackout Warning from Riverland Energy: https://riverlandenergy.com/miso-maximum-generation-warnings
  23. American Experiment Article, in Minnesota discussing Blackout risks, June 2022: https://www.americanexperiment.org/why-the-risk-of-blackouts-in-minnesota-continues-to-grow/
  24.  Net Zero Watch, UK Experience with Wind Farms, January 7, 2023: https://mailchi.mp/86e68627c77f/payments-for-windfarms-to-switch-off-soar-to-quarter-billion-pounds-193411?e=9e46528ac6
  25. WSJ, March 2023, “The Real Cost of Wind and Solar”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/renewable-energy-balancing-costs-united-kingdom-energy-bills-9795e48d?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
  26. POWER Magazine, Jan. 2023 Commentary, “America’s Power, CEO, Michelle Bloodworth: “Are We Headed for a Reliability Trainwreck”  https://www.nxtbook.com/accessintelligence/POWER/power-january-2023/index.php#/p/40
  27. Arshad Mansoor, CEO of EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) LinkedIn post, April 25, 2023 on the CAISO System. EPRI Post on the CAISO “Duck Curve changed to Canyon Curve” of Electric Load: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7056612841755181056-SCPK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  28. Big Green Radicals, many of which are setting America’s Energy Anti Conventional-Policy : https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/epa-report.pdf
  29. Capital Research Center, Nov. Dec. 2021 Issue: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf
  30. The Left’s War on Coal. “Global Warming is Good for Business”: https://capitalresearch.org/article/the-lefts-war-on-coal-part-3/
  31. Activist Facts,  Environmental Report (Follow the Money): https://www.activistfacts.com/organizations/19-natural-resources-defense-council/
  32. Competitive Enterprise Institute, Fifty Years of Wrong Predictions, 2019: https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions/
  33. Liberty Energy, Bettering Human Lives Report August 2022: https://www.libertyenergy.com/betteringhumanlivesv2/
  34. Mark Mills, Prager Univ. Myths of Green Energy, Nov. 2022: https://twitter.com/prageru/status/1589634529253261312
  35. Five Charts to Show the Ineffectiveness of Intermittent Renewables WUWT Oct 2022: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/05/a-few-graphs-say-it-all-for-weather-dependent-renewables-2/
  36. Sweden Energy Portfolio: https://www.iea.org/countries/sweden#
  37. Finland Energy Portfolio: https://www.iea.org/countries/finland
  38. Finland’s Nuclear Plants, World Nuclear Association : https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/finland.aspx
  39. Finland’s newest nuclear plant, Olkiluoto #3,  starts up in April 2023. 18 years to build: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/
  40. Finland GTK “Time to Wake up” Slide Presentation: https://www.gtk.fi/en/research/time-to-wake-up/
  41. Dick Storm Blog, Energizing and Educating the Public on the Impossibility of Achieving Net-Zero Carbon: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/03/20/educating-and-energizing-the-public-on-energy-policy-and-the-impossibility-of-powering-america-with-wind-and-solar/
  42. Dick Storm Blog, Comparison of U.S. and China Electricity Use: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/18/comparison-of-china-energy-electricity-generation-with-u-s-a/
  43. The Real Price of Wind and Solar: https://www.wsj.com/articles/renewable-energy-balancing-costs-united-kingdom-energy-bills-9795e48d?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
  44. Cowboy State Daily, March 2023: https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/03/10/letter-to-the-editor-children-should-be-taught-what-energy-is-so-they-can-fight-idiocy/
  45. Self Sabotage the Electric Grid: WSJ January 2023:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-self-sabotages-its-electrical-grid-renewable-fossil-fuel-power-11672685320
  46. Donn Dears website, Politics of Energy Policy part 2 and links to purchase his books: https://ddears.com/2022/08/08/the-politics-of-energy-part-2/
  47. Ron Clutz “Science Matters”, website and his take on green Energy: https://rclutz.com/2023/03/17/multiple-choice-question-re-green-energy/#like-30057
  48. American Suppression of Fossil Fuels Courts a National Security Disaster, By Ronald Stein P.E.  https://heartland.org/opinion/american-suppression-of-fossil-fuels-courts-a-national-security-disaster/
  49. WSJ The Real Price of Wind and Solar, Renewables Cost More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/renewable-energy-balancing-costs-united-kingdom-energy-bills-9795e48d?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
  50. World’s Climate Scientists Told to Cover Up the Fact the world has not warmed in 15 years, Daily Mail, UK: https://www-dailymail-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/amp/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-years.html  
  51. TED Talk Nuclear Power Is Our Best Hope to Ditch Fossil Fuels | Isabelle Boemeke on the need for more nuclear power: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESAaz9v4mSU
  52. WUWT March 20th, 2023, UN- IPCC Climate Warming Report: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/03/20/ipcc-issues-their-annual-final-climate-warning/
  53. David Blackman Energy Absurdity , EU Renewables, March 25, 2023: https://open.substack.com/pub/blackmon/p/sundays-energy-absurdity-about-those?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

In My opinion and research, the Path to Net Zero Carbon is Based on Corrupted Science and Political Ploys to Promote Socialism and One World Government, Not to Save the Planet or to Improve the Environment. Therefore, to substantiate this claim the following references are provided:

  1. Epoch Times article on UN Seeking Power to Govern the World in Emergencies: https://www.theepochtimes.com/un-seeks-vast-new-powers-for-global-emergencies_5186457.html?ea_src=open&ea_med=search
  2. The Climate Change Hoax Argument, 2021, by J. Paul Smith. Available on Amazon.
  3. U.N. Agenda 21 by Dr. Ileana Johnson Paugh
  4. The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science by Dr. Timothy Ball. Review of his book: https://www.alachuacounty.us/Depts/epd/EPAC/BOOK%20REVIEW%20-%20‘THE%20DELIBERATE%20CORRUPTION%20OF%20CLIMATE%20SCIENCE%20by%20TIM%20BALL.pdf
  5. Roy Spencer Web site: https://www.drroyspencer.com
  6. CO2 Coalition of Credentialed Scientists on Facts on Atmospheric Science: https://co2coalition.org/facts/
  7. Heartland Institute: http://climatechangereconsidered.org
  8. Prof. Lindzen article in Tablet Magazine on China and his views on AGW: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/china-warming-richard-lindzen
  9. Professor Judith Curry Interview January 30, 2021 on AGW: https://judithcurry.com/2021/01/30/interview-climate-change-a-different-perspective-with-judith-curry/
  10. Professor Willliams Happer and Professor Richard Lindzen Testimony to SEC June 2022: https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-10-22/s71022-20132171-302668.pdf
  11. The Right Stuff Climate Team (Retired NASA Engineers): https://www.therightclimatestuff.com
  12. Climate Science, Past, Presenby Vinos with forward by Judith Curry: https://judithcurry.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Vinos-CPPF2022.pdf
  13. GWPF Sept 22, 2022, Richard Lindzen Paper: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2022/09/Lindzen-global-warming-narrative.pdf
  14. Predictions of last 50 years were all wrong:   https://www.climategate.nl/2023/01/wat-bezielt-extinction-rebellion/
  15. Epoch Times article, Jan. 28, 2022 on Climate Policy is to benefit of China: https://www.theepochtimes.com/ccp-proves-climate-fight-not-really-about-climate_4971356.html
  16. Environmental Groups Influence Biden Environmental Policy, Fox News check of emails: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/environmental-groups-play-key-role-biden-admin-foreign-policy-emails-show  
  17. John Kerry Meetings on Climate Policy NOT TO BE ON Paper, Aug. 2021, Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/john-kerrys-secretive-climate-office-discussed-keeping-plans-paper-emails-show
  18. 114th Congress Report on Obama Carbon Policies and Influence of Green Groups through EPA Revolving Door Employment of Environmental Extremists: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
  19. WUWT Feb. 19, 2023, Check the Facts on Sea Level Rise and Global Warming: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/02/19/hey-axios-try-looking-at-real-data-it-shows-ice-sheet-melting-is-not-dangerous/

IRP Comments to My Local Electricity Provider as a Stakeholder

Santee-Cooper Integrated Resource Plan Letter

Introduction:

I live in Hilton Head, SC and our local electricity provider is Palmetto Electric Cooperative. Palmetto Electric obtains most, if not all of their Bulk Power from the SC Public Service Authority, known as Santee-Cooper. Santee-Cooper has a long history of providing reliable, reasonable cost power to the low country of SC. However, due to political pressure, they like most other utilities are working toward Net Zero Carbon by 2050. I disagree with this path and have written a couple letters to share my opinion and experiences. Here below is my latest letter concerning the creation of the next Integrated Resource Plan. The figure below shows Santee-Cooper load growth projections and the loss of the coal capacity from the Winyah Generating Station in 2028. It is this loss of Dispatchable capacity in 2028 that prompted my letter:

Dear Friends at Santee-Cooper,

Thank you for the opportunity to follow your development of the IRP. I would like to submit my additional comments below:

Santee-Cooper has a long history of providing reliable power to your service territory. During most of the preceding 89 years, the affordability, Dispatchability and reliability of coal fuel has been largely responsible for the reasonable cost rates and the attraction of industry. Especially energy intensive industries such as Nucor Steel and Century Aluminum. The 322 MW of nuclear power provided by Santee-Cooper’s ownership portion of the Summer #1 nuclear plant has also helped maintain favorable rates and reliability.  

I have many years of experience in power generation using most common fuels. Most as a senior engineer. Based on my experience and including travels world-wide, I strongly favor a Balanced Generation Portfolio of coal, nuclear, gas, hydro and up to about 15% renewables.

Santee-Cooper once had a good plan, about 15 years ago when you purchased the components for the 600 MW Pee Dee Clean Coal plant and the 45% ownership portion of units 2 & 3 Summer nuclear plant. The Summer nuclear plant units 2 & 3 seem to be history now. Pee Dee as I understand it is also history. However, the major equipment for the 600 MW Pee Dee coal plant, as I understand it, are still owned by Santee-Cooper.

I strongly believe that the 600MW Pee Dee Coal plant should be built along with plans for additional units. 

America is headed for an Energy Crisis and we already have had Blackouts in TN, CA, TX and NC during  severe weather during peak Demand periods. As recently in NC and TN as Christmas week, 2022. 

With the shutdown of the Winyah coal plant, continued electricity Demand increases and emphasis on intermittent renewable power to replace the coal generating capacity, South Carolina is at risk of Blackouts in our future at worse and escalating electricity generation costs at best if we do not keep and maintain the coal generation capacity. 

I understand that the goal of Net Zero Carbon is the goal, due to pressure from the S.C. Legislature. In my strong opinion, Net Zero Carbon is wrong and in fact, it will be impossible to achieve by 2040 or even 2050 by depending on wind and solar. I have written to Senator Tom Davis to ask that he initiate legislative action to keep fossil fuels viable beyond 2050. At least until electricity storage technologies catch up.

It is my hope that the Santee-Cooper staff will evaluate all options and including in the evaluation, consider the experiences of Hawaii, California, Texas, the UK, Germany and the entire European Union. I cite the example of Hawaii. Hawaii of course, is a true “Energy Island” and has no Grid connection as SC does. Hawaii has implemented Net Zero Carbon policies and included the premature shut down of the Barber’s Point coal plant, 180 MW unit. As a result of the renewable policies Hawaii now has the highest cost electricity ($0.45/kWh) of any U.S. state. Why? Because the intermittent wind and solar needs to be backed up with conventional fuels. With no coal or gas option, that leaves Diesel fuel as the Dispatchable alternate fuel. The highest cost primary energy available.

Three more examples are the UK.( $0.48/kWh), Denmark ($0.54/kWh) And Germany ($0.53/kWh) . Here are links to the electricity costs in Germany, Denmark and the UK. https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/  A print out of the Global Electricity prices is attached at the end of this letter.

The more renewables that are installed, the higher the cost of electricity. The low cost that is often quoted is for installation cost by “Nameplate” rating. $/kWh capacity. However, when the backup power fuel is considered, as has been experienced in Hawaii, the cost to the consumer is much higher. 

I have written on my Blog many reasons why a Balanced Generation Portfolio is needed. My Blog is here: 

USCB-OLLI Course, “Understanding Net Zero”, March 20, 2023: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-No

 Website: https://dickstormprobizblog.org https://wordpress.com/posts/dickstormprobizblog.org

Dick Storm Link: What Would it Take to Reach Net Zero Carbon by 2050:https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/12/what-would-it-take-for-net-zero-electricity-generation-by-2050/

Thank you for this opportunity to comment on the IRP.

Yours very truly,

Richard F. (Dick) Storm, PE 

Registered PE in the state of NC

For Reference: Santee-Cooper IRP Comments: https://www.santeecooper.com/About/Integrated-Resource-Plan/

Global electricity prices are attached below as an appendix: 

Note the highest Global cost electricity cost (please see last page) is in the UK, Germany and Denmark. All of which have made huge commitments to Renewable wind and solar power to replace coal and nuclear. So far, SC is lower than the average cost of the 50 U.S. states. Let’s keep the costs affordable and service reliable. Thank you.

Public Misinformation Example

The bill insert below suggests that Hilton Head Island electricity is provided by “Green Power” when in fact most of the power supply results from coal, gas and nuclear generation. In fact, the great state of SC has over 55% of our electricity provided by nuclear power but it is rarely discussed by the MSM or even the electricity providers.

Here are some additional References and Reading materials for Backup to the reasoning behind my letter above:

  1. Obama’s Carbon Mandate, and Revolving Door of Bureaucrats, Report by 114th Congress, Scientific Integrity Institute, 2015: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf  
  2. Daily Caller. Biden’s EPA Rule to Kill Off Coal Plants, March 8, 2023: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://dailycaller.com/2023/03/08/biden-epa-new-regs/&source=gmail&ust=1678615516765000&usg=AOvVaw0di3ndkkR73iVUOKpvIzfh
  3. World Nuclear News, France to Build more Nuclear Plants: https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/French-Senate-adopts-bill-on-accelerating-nuclear
  4. Capital Research Center on Al Gore’s 30 years of wrong predictions: https://capitalresearch.org/article/al-gores-30-years-of-climate-errors-part-1/
  5. James Brooks, RBAC on bringing improved living conditions to Billions: https://rbac.com/rbacs-role-in-bringing-energy-to-a-billion-people/
  6. Cyrus Brooks Video on Renewables, Outstanding communication in 2 minutes: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cyrus-brooks-03274713_energy-power-energybills-ugcPost-7040102595239055360-BoVt?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop 
  7. The Real Price of Wind and Solar: https://www.wsj.com/articles/renewable-energy-balancing-costs-united-kingdom-energy-bills-9795e48d?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
  8. Cowboy State Daily, March 2023: https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/03/10/letter-to-the-editor-children-should-be-taught-what-energy-is-so-they-can-fight-idiocy/
  9. Hawaii Energy by NPR: https://www.npr.org/2022/01/15/1066578157/bidens-climate-agenda-is-stalled-in-congress-in-hawaii-one-key-part-is-going-ahe
  10. Hawaii News paper, “Civil Beat” article on skyrocketing electric bills: https://www.civilbeat.org/2022/09/whats-up-with-these-skyrocketing-electric-bills/
  11. Donn Dears website, “The Politics of Energy” part 2: https://bit.ly/3QuEuRs
  12. Donn dears new book, “Clean Energy Crisis”: https://ddears.com/2023/01/03/clean-energy-crisis/
  13. Hillsdale College, article on the “Great Reset”, Dec. 2021 by Michael Rectenwald: https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/what-is-the-great-reset/
  14. UN Sustainable Development 2030 Agenda Document: https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda
  15. WSJ Dec 31, 2022 Europe on Blackout Watch: https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-goes-on-blackout-watch-as-winter-descends-11672478326?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
  16. Vaughn Cordle Web pages on government & Finance: https://vaughncordle.substack.com/archive?sort=top
  17. Biden Admits it Erred in Cancelling the Keystone Pipeline, PA Pundits, Jan. 23, 2023: https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ogbl#inbox/FMfcgzGrcFlvGZhBxqDNkdqXrDHwpGbX
  18. WUWT Cognitive Dissonance of Climate Change, Discussion: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/02/08/cognitive-dissonance-and-climate-change-a-takedown/
  19. Finland Geological Survey Reports: https://www.gtk.fi/en/research/time-to-wake-up/downloads/
  20. NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer: https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/2/-8988661.48972888/3793092.6353016817/12/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion
  21. Maurice Strong Story: http://ielts-yasi.englishlab.net/wizard_baca_grande_1990.pdf
  22. China, Sinopec CCS Plant, Feb. 2023:  https://cen.acs.org/business/investment/Sinopec-completes-China-first-large-carbon-capture-plant/100/i5
  23. Self Sabotage the Electric Grid: WSJ January 2023:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-self-sabotages-its-electrical-grid-renewable-fossil-fuel-power-11672685320
  24. The Christmas Grid Emergency: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-christmas-electric-grid-emergency-11672091317?mod=article_inline
  25. Capital Research Testimony by Scott Walter May 2022: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/2022-May-4-Testimony-Finance-Subcom-IRS.pdf
  26. Capital Research Center, Green watch: https://capitalresearch.org/category/green-watch/
  27. NRDC Activist Facts, Influence Watch: https://www.activistfacts.com/organizations/19-natural-resources-defense-council/
  28. Donn Dears website, Politics of Energy Policy part 2 and links to purchase his books: https://ddears.com/2022/08/08/the-politics-of-energy-part-2/
  29. Ron Clutz “Science Matters”, website and his take on green Energy: https://rclutz.com/2023/03/17/multiple-choice-question-re-green-energy/#like-30057
  30. Dr. Roy Spencer Website on Atmospheric Science https://www.drroyspencer.com/
  31. Slavery and Child Labor at the Core of Elites’ Green Energy Obsession, by H. Sterling Burnett,   https://heartland.org/opinion/climate-change-weekly-464-slavery-and-child-labor-at-the-core-of-elites-green-energy-obsession/
  32. American Suppression of Fossil Fuels Courts a National Security Disaster, By Ronald Stein P.E.  https://heartland.org/opinion/american-suppression-of-fossil-fuels-courts-a-national-security-disaster/
  33. LNG Potential, By Donn Dears, https://ddears.com/2023/03/14/lng-potential/
  34. WSJ The Real Price of Wind and Solar, Renewables Cost More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/renewable-energy-balancing-costs-united-kingdom-energy-bills-9795e48d?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
  35. World’s Climate Scientists Told to Cover Up the Fact the world has not warmed in 15 years, Daily Mail, UK: https://www-dailymail-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/amp/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-years.html  
  36. TED Talk Nuclear Power Is Our Best Hope to Ditch Fossil Fuels | Isabelle Boemeke on the need for more nuclear power: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESAaz9v4mSU
  37. WUWT March 20th, 2023, UN- IPCC Climate Warming Report: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/03/20/ipcc-issues-their-annual-final-climate-warning/
  38. David Blackman Energy Absurdity , EU Renewables, March 25, 2023: https://open.substack.com/pub/blackmon/p/sundays-energy-absurdity-about-those?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
  39. Pee Dee Coal Plant Cancellation, Post & Courier 2009: https://www.postandcourier.com/news/pulling-the-plug-on-pee-dee-plant/article_3372de17-64a1-5d91-aaea-84c83fcc792f.html
  40. 2012 SC Business News Article on SC Coal Plant Closures: https://scbiznews.com/news/government/41626/
  41. POWER MAG 2017, SUMMER CHARGES TO CUSTOMERS 2017: https://www.powermag.com/suit-claims-santee-cooper-charging-customers-for-unbuilt-coal-plant/
  42. Sierra Club Beyond Coal Website. This organization has created a lot of harm to the U.S.A.and they are funded with Billions$$$: https://coal.sierraclub.org
  43. Another strong influencer of U.S. Energy policy, also extremely well funded, NRDC.org : https://www.nrdc.org/demand-climate-action
  44. Post & Courier Newspaper article on Pee Dee Coal Plant opposition, 2008: https://www.postandcourier.com/features/attorneys-general-oppose-coal-plant/article_1724fa18-c4a6-5040-a44b-d5bf856c3943.html
  45. New York Times article 2017 on Cancelled Summer Units 2&3: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/climate/nuclear-power-project-canceled-in-south-carolina.html
  46. Capital Research Center, Nov. Dec. 2021 Issue: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf
  47. WUWT Blog on Global Fuels Use, July 11, 2021: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/07/11/2020-global-energy-data-shows-fossil-fuels-completely-dominate-world-energy-use/
  48. Gina McCarthy, Climate Czar, IRS 990 form when she worked at NRDC between Obama and Biden Administrations: Click to access nrdc-actionfund-990-2020.pdf
  49. Business Insider, Links of Russian Funds to NRDC Funding to fight Fracking: https://www.businessinsider.com/a-russian-linked-company-in-bermuda-is-funneling-millions-to-us-anti-fracking-groups-2015-1
  50. Big Green Radicals, 2014  : https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/epa-report.pdf
  51. LLNL TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY FLOW CHART 2021: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov
  52. EIA Total Energy Sources, 2021 including Pie Chart & Fuels 1950-2021: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/
  53. St. Louis Fed (FRED) Energy & Economy: https://www.stlouisfed.org/search#siteresults_e=0&siteresults_q=%20Energy%20&siteresults_o=%2CRelevance
  54. Paul Driessen list of Billionaire Climate Activists: https://climatechangedispatch.com/billionaire-climate-elites-have-their-own-rules-and-agenda/
  55. Capital Research Center December 2021, “War on Consumers” article with Dick Storm contribution on why we cannot electrify everything: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157

Wind and Inadequate Batteries for Backup: https://stopthesethings.com/2023/03/24/permanent-no-hopers-batteries-no-solution-for-wind-solars-inherent-intermittency/