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The Reality of Electrifying Everything and the Primary Energy Required to Generate the Electricity…..

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Coal Fueled Santee-Cooper Cross Generating Plant 2390 MW Capacity

Conventional fuels, including coal provide most of the power needed to sustain our high quality of life. During 2022 coal use in the world reached a new high and provides the fuel for about 35.4% of the world’s electricity generation. Asia’s electricity generation was 82% from coal fuel in 2022(40, 41)

Meanwhile, the current U.S. government policy, green religion, renewable energy policies and crushing regulations are geared toward electrifying everything. Including transportation. The emphasis on phasing out internal combustion engines for autos is well publicized. This outlawing without Congressional action of internal combustion engines in spite of the majority of Americans desire to keep gasoline and Diesel powered vehicles seems unlawful to me? Then, on Good Friday Biden’s EPA issued new rules on electrifying heavy trucks. The EPA is out of touch, not only with their purpose of protecting human health, but also with Physics, Thermodynamics and Reality. The Demand for electricity is increasing because of increased use by Data Centers, EV’s and the natural organic growth of electricity as people of the world are lifted from poverty.(60) The surge in EV Demand has not really been felt yet because EV’s are still a small percentage of the total U.S. vehicle fleet.

Electrify Everything vs. Energy Reality

The EPA is on a mission to kill coal plants regardless of the harm to our country, it is a rogue government agency, staffed by extremists, guided by extremists in the Biden Administration that are using the regulations as a weapon against the Best interests of America and the citizens. (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) America needs to use all fuels which are within our borders and including coal. America is the Saudi Arabia of coal and has the highest quality & richest coal deposits on planet earth. We should use this God given Primary Energy Treasure to keep America strong.

The lure of billions of dollars in tax subsidies has made otherwise well run organizations and corporations to become “Woke & Green Biased”. It is extreme fantasy to believe that wind and solar can power the economies of Developed Countries. Yet, policies of many otherwise well run companies and organizations, even when they employ well trained and experienced engineers that know better, promote the “Green narrative. One example of this green wokeness is the “PowerGen” Conference. This conference was one of my favorites and I have been a presenter for decades since the 1980’s. In January I was asked by a Utility engineer friend, Mark Barton, along with two other senior power engineers, Frank Mitchell and John Grusha, to serve on a panel. The title of the Panel: “Legacy Perspective of 100 Years of Power Generation Experience”. I wrote my take aways here. (35) Frank Mitchell, retired from AEP and now active as an independent consultant also has published many technical papers on power generation. One entitled, “Analysis of Variable Renewable Energy and Reserve Margins” is available from the ASME. (36) Suffice it to say, the panelists involved do not agree with the Net-Zero Carbon path our country is on. We are not alone.

Also hard to understand is the well respected POWER Magazine embracement of renewable power to “Electrify Everything”. Here is an excerpt from this month’s POWER Magazine. This is written by Matt Helgeson, head of Sustainability for Siemens USA. (8) He also should know better.

“The “electrification of everything” is

underway to not only decarbonize,

but also support optimized, safer and

more resilient processes and systems.

This concept means that we are replacing

our fossil fuel economy with wind,

solar, hydro, electric vehicles (EVs), heat

pumps, and more. This transformation

will be made possible—at scale—with

the application of digital technologies.

However, the challenge arises to electrify

everything before the grid is fully “green”

if we are going to appropriately and effectively

address climate change.

From electrifying buildings and vehicles,

and navigating the impact to the

grid, the technology to accomplish a fully

electric transformation is available today.

And now’s the time to utilize these technologies

to ensure that everything that

can be connected to the grid is electrified.

We’re running parallel races to transition

power generation to renewable sources,

improve the grid to manage those sources,

and replace infrastructure that’s ready

to use the power delivered to it.

Electrification of Transportation

An exciting and rapidly advancing industry

transformation is the electrification of transport.

According to Car and Driver, 2024 is

expected to set a new record for EVs sold

and their share of the total market. Further,

the EV market is projected to have a compound

annual growth rate of about 10%

projected through 2028, leading to more

than $900 billion in sales that year.

As the need to reduce carbon emissions

has become clear, we’re seeing

unprecedented support and funding from

the federal government to deploy EV infrastructure.

State and local governments”

Dick Storm’s Love of Power, Articles and Commentary in POWER Magazine….

POWER Magazine has been my favorite power generation magazine since 1959 when I was a teen and just beginning preparation for a career I loved in power generation. I was inspired by Steve Elonka’s fictional character “Marmaduke Surfaceblow” who was a “Globe Trotting Consulting Engineer” that solved power engineering problems around the world. I wanted to become an engineer like Marmaduke Surfaceblow. I pretty much succeeded in that goal. Thank you POWER for the inspiration! Later in my career I was a contributing editor to POWER Magazine where I shared the Storm Technology team’s experiences in improving combustion and efficiency. As recent as 2021, my commentary was published in POWER, which I still believe and stand behind. (9) Linked Here and it is a contrast with the Siemens commentary this month. A few other POWER articles I contributed are listed below in the references. (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16) I remain very proud of what I did to make a small contribution of helping generate reliable, efficient and clean coal power. Yes, I remain a friend of coal! And so should all Americans embrace coal, oil, gas and uranium use, all are fuels that are capable of being produced in the quantities we need from within our borders. More later on the need for 833,000-1,000,000 Btus per day/person to power our economy and our lives.

Reminder of the vast coal reserves in the U.S. and on the planet.

Getting back to the reality of Primary Energy and the sources of Primary energy that can meet our needs:

Meet Energy Reality

America uses right at 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy each year. This is likely to increase, that is if we maintain our high quality of life, over time. The IEA believes that with increased Data Center consumption, electricity growth will likely be over 3.4%/year. (67) Also, with more electrification, large new Data Centers, more EV’s and a growing population, Demand for electricity will grow. The entire world uses about 600 Quadrillion Btus of energy. These amounts of U.S. and world energy use are reported by numerous references. Amongst them, the IEA, EIA, Our World in Data and the Energy Institute. Most of the rest of the world is using coal. The greatest amount of coal ever used in history was the year 2023.

I have written on the 100 Quadrillion Btus that the US uses on a previous blog posts Here, Here, Here Here and Here(17, 18, 19, 20)

The “Count on Coal” Blog article quoting a conversation with worldwide energy expert, Daniel Yergin, sums up the energy transition very accurately. (27) Yergin’s comments are supported by the “Our World in Data” world energy use chart above and numerous other references included at the end. An excerpt from the Count on Coal Blog is copied below. The bold font and underlining is my emphasis:

“Renowned energy analyst and historian Dan Yergin recently observed that the world isn’t just using more coal than ever before but three times what it did in the 1960s. While Yergin recognizes significant changes in the global energy mix, he said, “I’m sick of the energy transition discussion. It sometimes loses touch with economic history and reality. If you look at the history of energy transitions, they all last for over a century. To try and make change happen in 25 years, or even half of that time is highly unlikely.”

For Yergin – and energy analysts the world over – the coal age has miles to run. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects coal consumption in India and Southeast Asia to in fact “grow significantly.”

By 2026, the IEA expects just China and India together to account for 70% of global coal demand. Those two nations and Indonesia opened 59 gigawatts of new coal generating capacity last year. India has 85 GW of new coal generating capacity already under construction with more expected.

Both China and India are rapidly adding renewable energy but see coal as essential to helping meet rising power demand and view it as an energy security and reliability backstop. China is on track to add 200 GW of new coal capacity by 2030. For comparison, that’s more new capacity than the entire existing U.S. coal fleet.  

As Dan Yergin observed, we need a better energy transition discussion. Globally, we remain firmly in an era of energy addition. Just ask China and India.  “

Energy provides life as we know it

China and India are rising as economically prosperous nations and they are doing so powered by all available sources of energy, including coal.(33, 34, 65) We in America should do likewise. The last new highly efficient and clean coal plants built in America started up in 2013. We have not built a major coal plant in the U.S. in over twelve years. However, hundreds have been shut down without replacing the reliable, affordable and dispatchable generation capacity in kind. (28,29, 30, 68)

Electrifying Everything is Not Possible

To say Electrifying Everything is possible, is a ludicrous fantasy and a lie. More politely, but factually it simply is not possible. (25) For example: Ammonia, Food production, Steel, Plastics, Aluminum and Concrete all are dependent on vast amounts of Primary Energy for production. It is not an exaggeration to say Energy = Life.(25)

Further, for all of the talk on the news about inflation and the rising cost of living, this inflation, in my opinion, is based largely on the government climate policies (more correctly described as a war on carbon) that are making it harder to produce Primary energy from conventional sources and also, forcing more expensive, less reliable, variable, intermittent, renewable energy on all of us. The so called, “Energy Transition” is not a transition, it is only a “War on Carbon and Conventional Forms of Energy” Daniel Yergin said it and so did I in previous Blog posts and presentations. (28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 68) A previous article I wrote used Hawaii as an example. The Islands of Hawaii are an excellent case study in applying green only power generation. Why? Because Hawaii has plenty of sunlight and wind and it is separated from the U.S. Grid. Therefore, as the green only generation is built, with Diesel fuel backup, then the natural and high cost of intermittent green power is experienced by more use of expensive Diesel fuel. Hawaii is an ideal “Science Experiment” in using Green Power. (38)

833,000-1,000,000 Btus of Primary Energy/Day/Person

This is how much primary energy we have become accustomed to having available and at a reasonable cost. Replacing this quantity of reasonable cost, reliable and abundantly available conventional energy with renewables as stated before, is impossible. To attempt to decarbonize America will contribute to the decline of our quality of life and even worse, contribute to the decline of America. Here below is the U.S. Energy Flow Chart for Primary Energy. Prepared by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

The primary energy flow chart shows the energy flows from all of the sources of energy and how they are used. This is done in BTU equivalents to include non-thermal sources such as Hydroelectric, solar and wind. As shown on the chart, for 2022 Americans used a total of 100.3 Quadrillion BTUs of energy.

A reminder: one BTU is equivalent to 778 foot pounds of work at 100% efficiency. One kWh of electricity is equivalent to 3,412.6 BTUs.

After decades of tax subsidies the quantity of primary energy provided by wind and solar is less than 6%. The fact is, over 90% of our primary energy was in 2022 and remains in 2024, provided by conventional forms of energy: Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, Biomass and old hydroelectric dams. Remember the key words “Primary Energy” when you are told we should “Electrify Everything“. Electricity and Hydrogen are Secondary Energy that must be produced using Primary Energy.

Reality of Bulk Power Supply

Most authors refer to the Grid, (aka Largest Machine Ever Built).(59, 60) I chose to use the term, “Bulk Power Supply” because the term “Bulk Power” better describes generation from conventional power stations. When I reported for work to Carolina Power & Light Company in 1973, the sign on the office door in the central general office stated, “Bulk Power Supply”. I thought it a curious term and wondered why it was not called the “Electric Generating Department”. Apparently, many others have found the term “Bulk Power Supply” awkward too because I do not see references to “Bulk Power Supply” much anymore. However, after all of these years, I think it is the right term to describe Bulk Power Generation when discussing “Megawatt or Gigawatt Hours” not kilowatts of generation.

Let’s take a look at (Bulk Power Supply) electricity generation, by fuels over the last few years during peak summer and winter Demand periods. These are screen shots of actual data. The first is PJM on June 30, 2018. Note that about a third of the generation is by coal fuel.

Since de-regulation of electricity markets in the 1990’s, the U.S. has been divided up into Regional Transmission Operator or RTO’s and Independent System Operators or ISO’s. Here is a map to show what PJM, MISO, ERCOT, etc.

FERC.gov

First, let’s look at PJM on a high Demand day: Notice the importance of coal generation? In this example, coal power provides about a third of the total generation.

The next example is the 48 state Grid for the week January 28-Feb. 4th 2023. Note the generation by fuels. Coal is providing about 22% of the total 544,000 MWh generation on Feb. 1.

Next, let’s look at Duke Energy Carolinas for the first week of September 2023. Duke has a very balanced generation portfolio including a lot of nuclear, gas and coal generation capacity. At the moment shown, coal was providing 21% of total generation.

The neighboring Utility in SC, Santee-Cooper. A much smaller Utility than Duke, with much more dependence on coal fuel. In this example, about two thirds coal power generation is from coal. The lead photo at the top is the 2390 MW Cross Generating Station. This is a very important generating plant for my area of S.C.

The Midcontinent System Operations (MISO) is shown below for a summer day in 2022. Coal is delivering about 42% of the electricity generation at that moment. (68)

From Dick Storm Presentation to ENERUM, Columbus, Ohio, August 2022 Data from MISOENERGY.org

These illustrations are taken from past presentations I have given to show the importance of coal generated power.(68) As this is written, it is spring time and what we in the power plant maintenance business used to call “Outage Season”. Why, because power demand in the spring and fall is the lowest due to mild weather and it is the time to perform major maintenance overhauls. Typical demand curves for different seasons are shown below. From these you can imagine the risk of coming Blackouts is not in the spring and fall, but in the high demand summer or winter months. Remember Texas in Feb. 2021 with over 240 people killed by cold and power shortages?

The PJM load profile shows peak demand in the summer with high air conditioning loads. In the south many states electricity demand peaks in the winter (South Carolina as an example).

Blackouts are forecasted and warnings have been loud and clear. However, the EPA and the government continue their “War on Carbon”. This is intentionally weakening America.

Planning for Blackouts

The illustration below is from the Santee-Cooper IRP. It shows how the forecast of increasing load Demand that is greater than the installed, Dispatchable generation capacity. Some more history of failed S.C. Energy policy is on LI here. (69)

North of Santee-Cooper’s service territory is Duke Energy Carolinas. Their IRP shows a similar gap of Demand and installed capacity. Why? Because the Legislatures in both states have pressured the Utilities to stop using coal. Much of the Duke Energy Coal Plants have been demolished and they plan to completely exit coal use by 2036. The chart below is from one of the Duke Energy IRP’s and it shows an actual deficit of required generation capacity as the coal plants are shut down.

Stopping the use of coal is unnecessary. The Climate Policies are, in my analysis, not to protect the environment or human health. The Climate Policies that have been cooked up to scare the public are all about “One World Government”, Socialism and control of the citizens. Have you noticed that these Climate Policies are only being applied in the Free Western World? Yet, Asia burns over 75% of the world’s coal. Americans need to wake up and here below are some books and references to shed some more light on Climate Policies and sustaining our high quality of life.

Excellent books that forecasted the future of Electric Power shortages and the worldwide misinformation on climate science.

We Have Been Warned!

I am one of many who have warned of coming Blackouts. That’s right, I am not the first skeptic. Let me give credit to Mr. Donn Dears for being one of the first that published books on these harmful policies. Then, after over 100,000 MW of reliable coal plants have been shut down, FERC and NERC and other reputable organizations finally started to chime in. At this time, Blackouts during peak extreme weather in the summer or winter periods are expected. My previous article discussed what I consider to be the largest threats to energy and electricity generation reliability. (64)

FERC, NERC, America’s Power and many others have provided warnings. (43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 68)

Yet, the government agencies, especially the EPA continues the same misguided path toward Net Zero Carbon. My friend, I am sad to say, my late friend, Donn Dears wrote about a dozen books to highlight foolish and un-American energy policies. Four of his books are correctly titled: “Nothing to Fear-A Bright Future for Fossil Fuels”, “Looming Energy Crisis”, “Net-zero Carbon: The Climate Policy Destroying America” and “Clean Energy Crisis”. Donn was a solid American Patriot; Navy Veteran and he had a long career as an executive engineer at General Electric. This was back when G-E was a world leader in conventional power generation equipment. Donn was truly an energy expert’s Expert! Donn’s books are available on Amazon. Worth the read, each is only about 100 pages and they are packed with facts. Donn did his best to save America, even in the last days of his life he was contributing articles and posts on his web site, “POWER for the USA” and communicating with me (and others) to review articles or presentations I prepared and then asked for his advice and review. What a wonderful man and engineer Donn was. RIP my friend, we miss you.

Donn Dears was the one that inspired me to start this Blog. I offer my experiences and my knowledge in all humility, and in memory and respect for my friend, Donn Dears. I miss his friendship and shared wisdom.

America is heading for an energy crisis and it will be hard to correct the harm that has been self inflicted by alphabet government agencies and a rogue, energy ignorant administration.

Please wake up American’s! Please do some research into the importance of energy and reasonable cost, reliable and Dispatchable electricity. Then, pass on the information to your friends and family. Do this for Donn, your own good and for your grandchildren. In my opinion, only about 3% of Americans really understand energy and electricity generation. The Marxist Left has done an effective job of indoctrinating the public with green misinformation. All of us that understand energy and electricity generation need to get involved in preaching the true facts on the unachievable “Net-Zero Carbon and Electrify Everything” nonsensical path of U.S. energy policy.

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm April 9, 2024

References and Information for further research:

  1. The Green Energy Crisis, Part 2, “Meet Some of the People that Caused it”,  June 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/06/14/green-energy-crisis-part-2-meet-the-policy-makers-that-caused-it/
  2. The EPA Awards Billions From Misnamed Inflation Reduction Act To Orgs Tied To Biden, Dems by Nick Pope, Billions of our tax dollars to Extremist Organizations, Stephen Heins Substack, April 4, 2024: https://open.substack.com/pub/stephenheins/p/epa-awards-billions-from-misnamed?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
  3. 114th Congress, Majority Staff Report, Obama’s Carbon Mandate, August 2015: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
  4. The True Agenda of Climate Policies is Not to Protect Public Health of the Planet’s Environment: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/13/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-electricity-generation-and-environmental-protection-part-4-what-is-the-true-agenda-for-climate-policies/
  5. Capital Research Center, Report on the History of Global Warming Fears:  https://www.climatedollars.org/full-study/a-short-history-of-global-warming-fears/
  6. CRC Full Report, 2017, Climate Dollars: https://www.climatedollars.org/app/uploads/2017/05/CRC_ClimateDollars_Study_finalv3.pdf
  7. CO2 You Tube, “Climate Killer or Essence of Life” By Patrick Baeuerle:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6daGgUI-keg
  8. Leveraging the ‘Electrification of Everything’ to Reduce Carbon Emissions Power Magazine Commentary April 2024: https://www.powermag.com/leveraging-the-electrification-of-everything-to-reduce-carbon-emissions/
  9. POWER Magazine Commentary by Dick Storm, March 2021: https://www.powermag.com/blog/all-fuels-are-important-but-thermal-power-generation-is-still-number-1/
  10. 2007 Power, Optimize Furnace Performance, start at the Pulverizers http://www.powermag.com/to-optimize-performance-begin-at-the-pulverizers/
  11. Power Magazine, “Blueprint” Your Pulverizers for Improved Performance http://www.powermag.com/blueprint-your-pulverizer-for-improved-performance/
  12. Power Magazine, Coal Pulverizers, Part l http://www.powermag.com/pulverizers-101-part-i/
  13. Power Magazine, Coal Pulverizers, Part ll http://www.powermag.com/pulverizers-101-part-ii/
  14. Coal Pulverizers Series, Part lll http://www.powermag.com/pulverizers-101-part-iii/
  15.  Stealth Combustion Losses Lower Plant Efficiency Part 1 https://www.powermag.com/how-stealth-combustion-losses-lower-plant-efficiency-part-1-the-problem/
  16. Improving Plant Heat-Rate POWER, 2014: https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=Dick+Storm+POWER+Magazine+article+on+Improving+Heat+Rate&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#ip=1
  17. Dick Storm Blog post, America Needs and uses 830,000 BTUs per Day/Person, Sept. 2021: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/09/16/830000-btus-per-day-person/
  18.  American Dream = 100 Quadrillion BTUs per Year April 7, 2022: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/07/04/american-dream-100-quadrillion-btus/
  19.   Providing a Sustainable Million BTUs per Day/Person, May 17,  2022: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/05/17/providing-a-sustainable-million-btus-per-day-per-person-by-fuel-source/
  20. The Importance of Energy to Power Our High Quality Lives, Aug. 25, 2020: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/08/25/the-importance-of-energy-to-power-high-quality-of-life-part-1/
  21. EIA World Energy Consumption, in 2021: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=527&t=4
  22. IEA Key World Energy Statistics, 2021: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/52f66a88-0b63-4ad2-94a5-29d36e864b82/KeyWorldEnergyStatistics2021.pdf
  23. Our World in Data, “World Energy Production/Consumption” by country, 2021: https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption
  24. Energy Institute Statistics, 2023: https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
  25.  Pillars of Modern Civilization, Ammonia, Food, Steel, Concrete, Plastics, Aluminum, July 2022: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/07/25/pillars-of-modern-civilization-all-dependent-on-energy/
  26. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 2022 Energy Flow Chart for U.S. : https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/sites/flowcharts/files/2023-10/US%20Energy%202022.pdf
  27. American Coal Council, “Count On Coal” Blog: https://www.countoncoal.org/category/blog/
  28. “The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be”, Oct. 16, 2021: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/10/16/the-war-on-carbon-how-it-came-to-be/
  29. THE ERA OF RELIABLE, AFFORDABLE, ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY GENERATION: PART 1 https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/10/04/the-era-of-reliable-affordable-energy-and-electricity-generation-part-1/
  30.  The Green Energy Crisis is Here, Part 1, Sept. 17, 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/29/the-green-energy-crisis-is-here-part-1/
  31. The Green Energy Crisis, Part 2, “Meet Some of the People that Caused it”,  June 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/06/14/green-energy-crisis-part-2-meet-the-policy-makers-that-caused-it/
  32. The Green Energy Crisis, Part 3, June 26, 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/06/26/green-energy-crisis-part-3-public-energy-education-is-needed-each-person-in-the-u-s-uses-about-315-million-btus-of-primary-energy-year-this-is-not-practical-or-even-possible-to-replace-with-win/
  33. The Importance of Energy for Economic Prosperity, Part 4, The Rise of the U.S and the Rise of China from an energy perspective:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/09/21/part-4-the-importance-of-energy-to-economic-prosperity/
  34. China’s Influence in the World and the Need to Reshore American Manufacturing, Nov. 3, 2020 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/11/03/chinas-economic-influence-in-the-world-and-some-thoughts-on-the-need-to-reshore-american-manufacturing/
  35. PowerGen International, 2024 Panel Discussion Take Away’s of Dick Storm on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_i-had-the-honor-of-being-on-a-powergen-panel-activity-7156046708139782144-zPoZ?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  36. Frank Mitchell, Anthony Licata and Angelos Kokkinos ASME Paper, “Analysis of Variable Renewable Energy and Reserve Margins”, July 2022: https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/POWER/proceedings-abstract/POWER2022/85826/1146684
  37. PowerGen International 2024, Speaker Info on Dick Storm: https://www.powergen.com/speakers/richard-storm?&azletter=R&searchgroup=libraryentry-speakers
  38. “Update on Hawaii’s Glimpse of the Future of the Green New Deal” March 20, 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/20/hawaii-a-glimpse-into-the-future-of-the-green-new-deal-aka-inflation-reduction-act-here-is-an-update/
  39. FERC Description of RTO’s and ISO’s: https://www.ferc.gov/power-sales-and-markets/rtos-and-isos
  40. Coal Use in World Reaches New Record in 2023, Reuters Jan. 2024: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-coal-exports-power-generation-hit-new-highs-2023-2024-01-18/#:~:text=LITTLETON%2C%20Colorado%2C%20Jan%2018%20(,cut%20back%20on%20fossil%20fuels.
  41. Visual Capitalist on Electricity Generation by Fuels in the World, Jan 2024: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/electricity-sources-by-fuel-in-2022/#:~:text=Coal%20is%20Still%20King,%2C%20and%20hydroelectric%20at%2014.9%25.&text=Over%20three%2Dquarters%20of%20the,consumed%20in%20just%20three%20countries.
  42. IER (Institute for Energy Research) 200 Ways Biden and Democrats Have Made it Difficult to Produce Oil & Gas in the U.S. : https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/regulation/200-ways-the-biden-administration-and-democrats-have-made-it-harder-to-produce-oil-gas/
  43. “Clean Energy Crisis”, Book by Donn Dears, 2023. An excellently written, short and concise review of the energy crisis we are facing. Available on Amazon.
  44. POWER Magazine article on NERC Warning: https://www.powermag.com/nerc-identifies-energy-policy-as-key-risk-to-grid-reliability-amid-evolving-challenges/
  45. NERC State of Reliability Review, June 2023: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/PA/Performance%20Analysis%20DL/NERC_SOR_2023_Overview.pdf
  46. NERC December 2023 Report on Grid Reliability: https://subscriber.politicopro.com/f/?id=0000018c-64e3-db4d-abac-efef87a50000&source=email
  47. America is Running Out of Electricity Generation, Washington Post, March 7, 2024: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/amid-explosive-demand-america-is-running-out-of-power/ar-BB1jtM69
  48. FERC Energy Regulator States, “Power Grid is Facing Dire Consequences Due to Coal & Gas Retirements”, “WUWT June 2023: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/06/13/federal-energy-regulatory-commissioner-mark-christie-power-grid-is-facing-dire-consequences-due-to-coal-gas-retirements/
  49. Marc Christie to Gulf States, March 10, 2024: https://www.rtoinsider.com/73336-ferc-christie-warns-very-dark-place/
  50. CATO’s Travis Fisher Testimony to Congress, on Electricity Security, March 12, 2024: https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Testimony-Fisher.pdf
  51. America’s Power report on coal plants saving Grid during Jan. 2024 winter storms, Feb. 2024: https://americaspower.org/issue/operation-of-the-u-s-power-grid-during-the-january-2024-storm/https://americaspower.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2024_02_14-Jan-2024-Winter-Storms-Analysis-FINAL.pdf
  52. Fox News report on Biden’s Crusade of Shutting Coal Plants Down will Cause Blackouts and Higher Electricity prices, Feb. 2024: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/crazy-things-bidens-anti-coal-crusade-will-ordinary-americans
  53. Grid Operators Warn of Blackouts due to Excessive EPA Rules, America’s Power, March 6, 2024: https://americaspower.org/operators-regulators-concerned/
  54. E & E News, Warnings of Blackouts due to Excessive EPA Rules, Dec. 2023: https://www.eenews.net/articles/grid-monitor-warns-of-blackout-risks-as-coal-plants-retire/
  55. WUWT Steve Goreham article “Electricity Generation vs Green Goals” Feb. 28, 2024: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/02/27/electric-power-vs-green-goals/  
  56. Robert Bryce article on Increasing T&D is not the answer: https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/out-of-transmission-revisited/comments
  57. Grid Down, Power Up YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kErOyJ0u-8&t=180s
  58. Dick Storm Blog post on Santee-Cooper Growth of electric generation and the Futility of achieving 9,000 MW capacity by 2050 with carbon free power: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/04/27/how-can-a-6000-mw-regional-utility-in-2030-which-likely-will-be-a-9000-mw-utility-in-2050-achieve-net-zero-carbon/
  59. Bloomberg, “The Largest Machine in the World, The Electric Grid, Oct 2014: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/quicktake/u-s-electrical-grid
  60. Yahoo Finance, “Greasing the Largest Machine in the World, the Electric Grid, by Sonia Aggarwal, Sept. 2014 : https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greasing-electric-grid-worlds-largest-machine-op-ed-150237367.html
  61. Donn Dears book, “Net-zero Carbon: The Climate Policy Destroying America”  Paperback – January 2, 2022, available on Amazon.
  62. Donn dears book, “Looming Energy Crisis”
  63. Donn Dears book, “Nothing to Fear-A Bright Future for Fossil Fuels”
  64. Threats to the Electric Grid, March 15, 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/15/threats-to-the-grid-electricity-reliability/
  65. Ron Stein’s website w/articles and podcasts on the importance of conventional fuels, “America Out Loud” : https://www.americaoutloud.news/author/ronald-stein-p-e/
  66. Visual Capitalist on Data Center Power Demand, Jan. 2024. Example, Data Centers in Northern Virginia alone uses over 2550 MW: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/top-data-center-markets/
  67. Yahoo Finance on Virginia Data Center Bulk Power Demand, May 28, 2024: https://www.yahoo.com/news/virginia-explained-data-center-expansion-095928981.html
  68. IEA Electricity Growth Report, 2024: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2024/executive-summary
  69. Dick Storm Presentation to Columbus Energy Forum, Columbus, Ohio. “The U.S. Does NOT Have an Energy Policy, Only a Policy of Decarbonization”, August 2022:  https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_presentation-and-speakers-notes-from-august-activity-7068650158862827520-B-_W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  70. Dick Storm post on LinkedIn on S.C. Energy policy and the background of the failed 1200 MW Pee Dee Supercritical Coal Plant and Summer Units 2 & 3 Nuclear plant expansion. Post has links to Post and Courier articles, Duke, Santee-Cooper, Dominion IRP’s and SC Energy Office: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7184184178920312833?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  71. Good Substack contribution to explain Who/Why/How the Grid Reliability became “Undermined-Electrons Have Consequences” Energy IQ, by Pandreco, April 14, 2024: https://pandreco.substack.com/p/undermining-electrons-have-consequences
  72. WUWT article on unexpected growth of electricity demand from Data Centers, April 2024: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/04/19/wash-post-admits-reality-amid-explosive-demand-america-is-running-out-of-power-u-s-power-grid-being-pushed-to-the-brink-utilities-can/
  73. You Tube Lars Schernikau on Honest Pay Back of Renewables,  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa8Q8MoWfrU
  74. Energy Policy Institute.org: https://www.energyinst.org/my-ei/preferences
  75. Grid Status website/Dashboard: https://www.gridstatus.io/homehttps://www.gridstatus.io/home
  76. Data Centers embrace nuclear, April 2024: https://www.datacenters.com/news/the-data-center-industry-s-transition-to-nuclear-power
  77. Data Center Power, 2020: https://www.datacenters.com/news/everything-you-need-to-know-about-data-center-power
  78. EPOCH Times on Data Center Power Demand, April 2024: https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/rapid-expansion-of-cloud-computing-may-hit-a-wall-with-limited-supply-of-power-water-5630195?utm_source=Morningbrief&src_src=Morningbrief&utm_campaign=mb-2024-04-18&src_cmp=mb-2024-04-18&utm_medium=email&est=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAc%2BsofRIezY%2Fb%2BLwcs0VKH7toxkYAIGcN2s7GwqwC0GkGTSTCcgh%2FABHe
  79. Quanta Technology Study Report on Power Generation Shortages, report for America’s Power, Feb. 2024: https://americaspower.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Quanta-Final-Feb-2024-3.pdf
  80. Georgia Power IRP Revised 2023, April 2024 to update the increased Demand for Electricity will require more new generation capacity:  https://www.georgiapower.com/content/dam/georgia-power/pdfs/company-pdfs/2023-irp-update-main-document.pdf
Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Regulations

Threats to the Grid & Electricity Reliability

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It has now become noticed by the mainstream news that much of the U.S. will suffer Blackouts and electricity shortages as a result of insufficient reliable, dispatchable, affordable generation being built to replace the coal plants that are currently out of favor by government Regulations and climate policy. I have been predicting this and preaching for common sense energy policies for years. Now, even the MSM has acknowledged this unfortunate truth. There is insufficient new electricity generation 24/7 capacity to replace the reliable, affordable and Dispatchable coal plants that have been shut down and many demolished. No one likes an “I Told You So”, but, I did start warning folks with paid energy advertisements in the newspaper, published presentations and energy fact minutes (my friend Matt Smith and me called them EFM’s) on the local radio station WSPC. This was between the years 2008-2015 when then President Obama escalated the “War on Carbon”. It was Obama that mandated Electric vehicles during his second term in office. Then codified by the Pelosi led, Democrat controlled House to force the “Green New Deal” on us, as the so called, Inflation Reduction Act”. Now we are on a dangerous path of Net-Zero Carbon. Yes, decarbonizing our energy industries will cause Blackouts and worse if not reversed.

Here are my thoughts on the ranking, in my opinion, of some of the threats to America’s Lifeblood of electricity from the “Largest Machine Ever Built”, the U.S. Electric Grid. Credit the Smithsonian Institute for coining the name, “Largest Machine Ever Built”. (1) It took over a 100 years to build and the Green’s want to destroy it in a decade or less. So, who are these anti-American organizations?

Threats to Grid Reliability

The top 11 are ranked in my opinion, with the greatest risks first. Most are policy actions of “Self-Sabotage”.

  1. Government Agency Climate Policies, EPA at the top, SEC, BLM, DOD, DOJ and all of government is wrongly applying “Climate First” policies rather than the Best policies for America and younger Americans to experience the “American Dream” as my generation did
  2. Creation of RTO’s that absolved most utilities from planning for future electric generation growth
  3. Environmental Extremist/Activists that use enormous wealth against the Best interests of the U.S.A.
  4. Wealthy Business people who fund NGO’s to Decarbonize the western world
  5. The United Nations IPCC, Agenda 21, Agenda 30 and other so called “Climate Policies”
  6. The World Economic Forum and the members who under the guise of saving the planet are forcing policies of De-Growth, De-Industrialization and Energy Poverty on all of the people of the western world, but not the BRICS, and other countries aligned with Russia and China
  7. “Woke” or “Politically Correct” companies including electric Utilities and Co-Operatives that espouse solar and wind power as being capable of replacing coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy
  8. Public Education, K-12 and Universities that promote climate scare tactics to sway public opinion toward accepting higher energy costs and reduced reliability of energy and electricity
  9. World Bank, IMF, Large Banking and Investment companies that determine which infrastructure projects to finance
  10. Terrorists or criminal acts of sabotage (28)
  11. Foreign adversary to sabotage transformers or controls of the Grid. Due to the reporting of China influence of embedding chips or other devices into inverters and possibly large transformers, this needs to be included. (32-44)

Physical Damage Vulnerability

Extreme weather has created rare but occasional Blackouts, such as Texas in Feb. 2021. That Blackout and winter storm killed over 240 people.

Then there is another concern, I have thought about for years. That is, criminal and terrorist acts on our Grid and quite honestly, I did not want to write about it because I was concerned that it would give ideas to criminal minded individuals or groups to use for nefarious purposes. But then in checking for references on Grid vulnerability, I easily found over a dozen references including the widely watched CBS-60 Minutes TV show done in February 2023, Technical Society organizations and Congressional Research Service reports for Congress. So, what I am about to say should be no surprise to anyone in the industry. As for protecting America, we have a massive government agency with 260,000 employees in Homeland Security. Certainly, they are aware and are engaged in protecting the Grid. At least, that is what they are supposed to be doing as their name implies?

What Could Happen?

The open border of the U.S. is a concern for all of us. Maybe not a concern for President Biden or the Political Science trained Democrats in Congress, but all of the rest of us are concerned. Let me paraphrase ex FERC Commissioner John Wellinghoff, in his statement on the Feb. 2023, 60 Minutes program. Wellinghoff was asked, “How many substations would need to be damaged to create a U.S. wide Blackout” His answer, less than 20. Take a look at the 60 Minutes video here. The “60 Minutes” nationally distributed TV program is not the only wake up call. There are six reports below in the references for confirmation of the risk. Including a IEEE report which states 9 major substations could create a nationwide Blackout.(5)

Isaac Orr shared his outstanding presentation to Dairyland Power. It is here. His conclusion is similar to mine and his slides on Substack are worth reviewing: (29) The EPA either does not know what they are doing or they are intentionally destroying the largest machine ever built by man, the American Electric Grid.

Back to Current Events and News

It has been widely documented that the open border has allowed many “Military Age Men” from 170 nations to enter the U.S. My concern for this article is, what if say a task force of 100 military and energy infrastructure trained individuals are in fact in a sleeper cell within our country? Waiting for the command to act. Let’s suppose that the 100 men disperse across the country and position themselves to coordinate attacks on crucial sub stations and transmission lines. Yes, it is unthinkable. So was 911.

Conclusion

America’s electric grid is vulnerable and at risk from not only wrongly imposed regulations for forcing renewable energy on us, but also from foreign actors that wish to harm our country. It is not just my warning. Kindly read the references and view the videos listed below. It is my belief that the 2020 election was heavily influenced by Covid and perhaps not by a lab accident half way around the planet. This is an election year and a very small group of trained individuals could create loss of critical electricity for nefarious reasons. The individuals could be surrogates for a nation state, a religious movement or a military act. I feel that the RTO’s and increasing interconnectivity of Utilities is playing into the hands of our enemies to make the Grid more vulnerable, not less.

Compounding the risk is the move towards more dependence on “Just in Time” pipeline supplied natural gas. This exacerbates the risk of Blackouts because so much backup power is provided by pipeline provided primary energy. See reference #4 below.

If I had two wishes, One would be that all of our Electric Utilities were once again independent, Regional Utilities in the model of Carolina Power & Light for eastern NC. Duke Power for western NC, SCE&G for portions of SC, Santee-Cooper for the east coast of SC, etc. The Regional Utility Model is more secure than connecting the Grid as many proponents of green energy wish to do, in my opinion.

My second wish would be that all of our electric generation was from a Balanced Portfolio of varied fuel supplies, with at least 75% coal and nuclear to provide the base load. Nuclear and Coal can store months or years of fuel on site. That is good for Grid Resilience, reliability, affordability and improved national security. That is how I see it.

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, March 15, 2024, updated May 19, 2025

References and materials for further research to support my conclusions

  1. Smithsonian Institute, “Largest Machine Ever Built, the U.S. Electric Grid” : https://www.smithsonianmag.com/videos/category/history/the-largest-machine-ever-built/
  2. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Overview: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/2024_0311_department_of_homeland_security_overview.pdf
  3. CBS 60 Minutes Program, Feb. 27, 2022, “Protecting the U.S. Grid”  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65siHaUPsRM
  4. Canadian Pipeline Sabotage by Anarchists, Feb. 2023: https://www.vancouverislandfreedaily.com/news/trend-of-escalating-violence-coastal-gaslink-decries-pipeline-sabotage-claims-on-anarchist-site/
  5. IEEE Spectrum Report on Grid Vulnerability, 2014: https://spectrum.ieee.org/attack-on-nine-substations-could-take-down-us-grid
  6. Congressional Research Service on Grid Vulnerability, Feb. 2023: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12074
  7. Time Magazine article on Grid Attacks by Terrorists, March 2023 https://time.com/6244977/us-power-grid-attacks-extremism/
  8. POLITICO Report on Extremists Attacks on Power Grid, Sept. 2023: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/10/power-grid-attacks-00114563
  9. POLITICO, Power Grid Attacks, Dec. 26, 2022:  https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/26/physical-attacks-electrical-grid-peak-00075216
  10.  FERC Energy Regulator States, “Power Grid is Facing Dire Consequences Due to Coal & Gas Retirements”, “WUWT June 2023: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/06/13/federal-energy-regulatory-commissioner-mark-christie-power-grid-is-facing-dire-consequences-due-to-coal-gas-retirements/
  11. Power Hungry Google Data Centers to be Built in S.C. Charleston Business Journal, Feb. 15, 2024: https://charlestonbusiness.com/tech-giant-google-coming-to-dorchester-county/
  12. America is Running Out of Electricity Generation, Washington Post, March 7, 2024: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/amid-explosive-demand-america-is-running-out-of-power/ar-BB1jtM69
  13. “Clean Energy Crisis”, Book by Donn Dears, 2023. An excellently written, short and concise review of the energy crisis we are facing. Available on Amazon: https://ddears.com/2023/01/03/clean-energy-crisis/ 
  14. Understanding Data Center Electricity Demand by C&C Techgroup, June 2023: https://cc-techgroup.com/data-center-energy-consumption/
  15. Paul Boardman Report: www.boardmanreport.com
  16. Grid Down, Power Up, Video on Paul Boardman website: https://boardmanreport.com
  17. Congressional Report from 2014 which documents funding of NGO’s to use toward Decarbonization and Green Energy Policies. Worth perusing through because this shows much of how the general public has become indoctrinated with Green Energy and it supports much of another 114th Congress report on Obama’s Carbon Mandate about a year later (next reference, below): http://stillwatertechservices.com/files/tms/EAC-HAVA-CARES/The_Chain_of_Command_-_How_Billionaires_and_Foundations_Control_Environmental_Movement_US_Senate_Report_July_30_2014.pdf
  18. Congressional Report on Obama’s Carbon Mandate, August 2014: 114th Congress, Majority Staff Report, August 2015: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
  19. Good Substack read on a take off of Obama’s quote, “Elections Have Consequences” modified by Pandreco to “Undermining (Grid Security)Electrons Have Consequences”. My note: The consequences are not helpful for a strong energy infrastructure : https://pandreco.substack.com/p/undermining-electrons-have-consequences
  20. U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security Overview March 2024: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/2024_0311_department_of_homeland_security_overview.pdf
  21. What Happens if the Grid Goes Down: https://techevaluate.com/what-happens-if-the-american-power-grid-goes-down/#:~:text=If%20the%20American%20Power%20Grid%20went%20down%2C%20the,from%20minor%20inconveniences%20to%20grave%20losses%20of%20life  
  22. Electricity Growth in Demand is causing Utilities to Struggle, WUWT and WAPO, April 2024: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/04/19/wash-post-admits-reality-amid-explosive-demand-america-is-running-out-of-power-u-s-power-grid-being-pushed-to-the-brink-utilities-can/
  23. NERC Summer Reliability Report, May 2024: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2024.pdf
  24. IER Report on U.S. Treasure of Energy Resources, May 2024: https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2024-North-American-Energy-Inventory.pdf
  25. FERC Order #1920 is a Costly Shell Game”,  Increased Transmission & Distribution is Not Helpful, by Travis Fisher, May 2024: https://travisfisher.substack.com/p/fercs-order-no-1920-a-costly-shell
  26. Grid Brief, May 28, 2024, Electric Growth to be 2.7%, Critical Minerals supply and Energy Grids in Warfare Concerns: https://www.gridbrief.com/p/data-center-overload-critical-mineral-supply-energy-grids-modern-warfare?utm_source=www.gridbrief.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=data-center-overload-critical-mineral-supply-energy-grids-in-modern-warfare
  27. FERC Summer, 2024 Assessment, May 23, 2024: : https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/report-2024-summer-energy-market-and-electric-reliability-assessment?utm_source=www.gridbrief.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=data-center-overload-critical-mineral-supply-energy-grids-in-modern-warfare
  28. This is not good. Capital Research Center report on Chicago Protesters and Violent Acts of Terror Against the U.S., May 23, 2024: https://capitalresearch.org/article/chicago-campus-protestors-announce-terror-campain-against-the-us/
  29. Isaac Orr Presentation Slides to Dairyland Power on the Impact of EPA Regulations on Electric Reliability, June 22, 2024: https://energybadboys.substack.com/p/nine-slides-from-my-keynote-address
  30. Politico on Russian Threats to Natural Gas Supplies, March 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/02/gas-pipelines-cyber-risk-00011898
  31. Dick Storm Blog:  Threats to the Electric Grid, March 15, 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/15/threats-to-the-grid-electricity-reliability/
  32. Updated, FBI’s Christopher Wray on 60 Minutes, Jan. 2025: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thesilentpartner_thinblueline-lawenforcement-activity-7284569912348426241-Dvhg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  33. China Transformers with hidden “Backdoors” for Cyber Attack: Texas, 2021: https://texasscorecard.com/commentary/waller-chinese-backdoor-threatens-next-texas-blackout/
  34. Industrial Cyber:  https://industrialcyber.co/threats-attacks/chinese-transformers-in-critical-electric-sector-confirmed-by-two-us-administrations/
  35. WSJ on Houston Transformer from China being taken to Sandia Labs for Inspection, 2020: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-seizure-of-chinese-built-transformer-raises-specter-of-closer-scrutiny-11590598710
  36. CBN Report 2022 on Risk of Chinese Transformers to our Grid: https://cbn.com/news/us/cyber-pearl-harbor-how-china-built-backdoor-threat-could-take-down-us-electric-grid
  37. Energy Supply-Chain Risks- Lawfare Media- 2020: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/energy-grid-supply-chain-risks-and-us-china-entanglement  
  38. Utility Dive on Vulnerability of Grid to Chinese Transformers April- 2023: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/chinese-supply-chains-for-critical-infrastructure-threaten-the-us-power-gri/644505/
  39. Center for Security Policy Sept. 2021: https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/houston-has-a-problem-chinese-backdoor-threatens-next-texas-blackout/
  40. Power Transformer News, May 2023: https://www.powertransformernews.com/2023/03/28/extent-of-chinese-made-components-in-u-s-electrical-grid-still-unknown/
  41. POWER Magazine, June 2024 on Power Transformers long lead times: https://www.powermag.com/the-transformer-crisis-an-industry-on-the-brink/
  42. Utility Dive article on long lead times (80-120 months for large high voltage transformers) Feb. 2025 : https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electric-transformer-shortage-nrel-niac/738947/
  43. Wood Mackensie report on large Transformers, April 2025: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/supply-shortages-and-an-inflexible-market-give-rise-to-high-power-transformer-lead-times/
  44. Electric Contractor on Transformer long lead times: https://www.ecmag.com/magazine/articles/article-detail/transformer-availability-still-lagging-behind-demand

Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Energy, Electricity, Economic Prosperity and Environmental Protection, Energy, Politics and Economic Prosperity, Politics & Management, Regulations

ENERGY MATTERS!

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Ken Haapala is President of the organization, “Science and Environmental Policy Project. Ken has been publishing TWTW (The Week That Was) Newsletter since the 1990’s. His informative Newsletters can be found here. This week, Mr. Haapala’s quote of the week is apropos for the importance of energy in our lives.

“The cavemen had the same natural resources at their disposal as we have
today, and the difference between their standard of living and ours is a difference between the knowledge they could bring to bear on those resources and the knowledge used today…..”

Thomas Sowell

I would continue from Sowell’s quote….

To produce sufficient energy that drives our economy, industry and nearly every comfort and convenience that we have come to enjoy since muscle power provided most of the energy for farming and transportation only 125 years ago….

The path to Net-Zero carbon is a path to Socialism, decarbonizing electricity and transportation energy will not improve human health or improve air quality. The so-called transition to reduced carbon dioxide production (aka Net-Zero or IRA) is disconnected from reality and there is no plan to keep an adequate energy supply for sustaining our current life styles, industrial production, freedom of travel and economic prosperity. The current government policies are Anti-American. The Institute for Energy Research has chronicled 200 actions by the Biden Administration which make it harder to produce oil and gas. Link here. Expansion of the government Regulations that are a large part of the “War on Coal” are detailed by Paul Driessen and PA Pundits, “Congress And The Courts Enable Climate And Energy Fantasies And Government Expansion” Here. Coal power restrictions and the likely electricity Blackouts in the future is chronicled by America’s Power, Here. Also, the author’s presentation to the ENERUM Energy Forum, stating “There is NO Energy Policy, only a policy of Decarbonization”, August 2022, Here. More recently, my takeaways of my PowerGen Panel discussion, here.

I used to think the Democrats and Swamp Bureaucrats in government were trained in, “Political Science”, and not real technical engineering science. At one time I thought they just did not understand the technical details of energy and electricity generation and were naive. However, the fact is, there are enough smart, technically trained engineers in the Bureaucracy (14,000 in the DOE & NETL plus 95,000 contractors and 18,000 in the EPA. with an almost $10 Billion Budget) Biden has the engineering talent resources to have become informed if he chose too. The Department of Energy, NETL, EPA, DOD all employ thousands of engineers. Now after observing the energy and electricity policies of the last three years of the Biden Administration I am of the strong opinion that the weakening of America through the “CCP Trojan Horse” Climate Policies…are in fact, all intentional. Many references are provided to support this conclusion in this and previous articles I have written. Links to these articles are provided below.

Eliminating or attempting to eliminate hydrocarbons from use in America is a movement toward de-growth, de-industrialization, food shortages, more inflation and restrictions on our freedoms. Simply stated: Over Regulated & Restrictive Big Government Socialism.

Net-Zero carbon is a path of the politicians to wield even more control over our lives. It is a political movement by unelected NGO’s to influence government officials. The “Swamp Bureaucrats” are out of touch with Reality and the current “Green New Deal” Climate Policies, are codified as the (mis-named) “Inflation Reduction Act“. This sadly, is the result of years of very well organized scare tactics and court actions intended to instill fear and used effectively to demonize the fuels that our society depends on. The war on carbon is not based on science. Net-Zero Carbon is a path to weaken the people of the free western world. This began with the Presidency of Bill Clinton and the ramping up of New Source Review lawsuits and then was further expanded by the revolving door of employment of radical extremists into high government positions during the Obama Administration. An informative report by the 114th Congress is here. My take on the beginning of the War on Carbon is here. My thoughts on the major U.S. Energy policy influencers, here.

Depending on 100% carbon free fuels (and continuing our high quality of life) by 2050 is delusional and impossible!

I have written much on the origins of the war on carbon and the destructive path of prematurely shutting down coal plants for reliable electricity generation. An Energy Forum presentation and three previous articles are here , here and here. In this article I will attempt to consolidate previous thoughts into one to discuss reality. Also a realistic approach to reducing carbon emissions while keeping America’s productive capacity and economy energized.

Energy is the Economy & Energy is the Sustainer of Our High Quality of Life.

We must be realistic about how fast we can reduce carbon emissions without destroying America as we know and love it. Energy powers life as we have come to enjoy it. Each American uses between 830,000 to 1,000,000 BTUs of energy each day. The energy we need and depend on each day is described in numerous articles, three of these previous articles are here, here and here. This quantity and reliability of energy from conventional sources cannot be replaced with wind and solar. Period. See my previous article on the enormity of the energy we depend on, Here. We have come to depend on this quantity of affordable, reliable energy of which 87% is sourced from gasoline, natural gas, Diesel, coal, Jet fuel and nuclear. The current government path is attempting to abolish fossil fuels which provide over 79% of our energy. The figure above showing 89%+ conventional fuels including nuclear and old hydroelectric plants. I consider these (Nuclear, Gas, Coal, Petroleum and Old Hydroelectric plants) all conventional forms of energy. America will continue to require a minimum of 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy per year and grow to more than 100 Quads with population growth and more application of technology, such as Data Centers and AI. Read more about the increase in electricity growth, here, here and here. These new Data Centers use nearly as much power as aluminum smelting operations. Some over 250 MW each. It will take much more electricity generation to electrify vehicles and power data centers. Data centers today use about 4% of total electricity use. The future of “Electrifying Everything” suggests an increase in electricity use and instantaneous demand, not a decrease.

Reliable Primary Energy and Electricity = Continued and Sustainable High Quality of Life

Energy and affordable/reliable electricity generation is a pre-requisite to sustain our current quality of life and freedom. The sources for this energy beyond 2050, in my opinion, will be from conventional forms of energy: Natural Gas, Nuclear, Coal, Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel and yes, including Coal

Furthermore, Crude oil, natural gas and coal provide the feedstock for production of thousands of products, and including food production. Energy is required for our high quality of life and including all basic essentials. Including Food, Steel, Cement, Plastics, Water Purification, Sewage Treatment and Fertilizer. When energy costs rise, they do in fact contribute to inflation. Why? Because energy is used for everything! From fertilizer for food production to the processing and transportation of ice cream. Primary metals, such as aluminum, copper & steel use enormous quantities of primary energy to produce. Much of that production has been shut down in the U.S. and moved to Asia.

Take aluminum as an example. This is from an article in the WSJ and a presentation I made in 2016. This shows how China climbed from nearly zero aluminum production in the year 2000 to becoming the major producer of over 50% of the world’s aluminum production by 2016. This rise of China’s economy is fueled by energy use. A reminder, it takes about 5 kWh’s of electricity to produce one pound of aluminum. (about 45,000 BTU’s to smelt one pound) This is for just smelting, and it does not include refining of Bauxite to Alumina, transportation or manufacturing energy to produce final products. China uses mostly coal fuel for their aluminum production. The rise of China’s energy and economy is covered by previous articles here and here.

From Dick Storm presentation to the Delaware County Bar Association, July 2016

The IEA report on energy costs impacting food report is here. The production cost component of most grains is about 50% energy related. The small red circles represent the energy cost component of production. Therefore, it is a fact that rising energy costs contribute to inflation.

From IEA Report, How Energy Crisis is Exacerbating the Food Crisis

A Realistic Approach to Electricity Generation with Reduced Carbon Dioxide Emissions

America has led the world in the reduction of the rate of carbon dioxide emissions since 2007. How? Largely due to the substitution of electric power generation using natural gas fuel for power generation. That is, replacing power generation once accomplished with coal fuel, with natural gas powered generation. Natural gas power generation in a modern combined cycle gas turbine plant produces about 50% of the CO2 emissions as produced by coal power generation. The U.S. total carbon dioxide emissions are shown on the chart below. CO2 emissions dropped from a high of about 6,000 million metric tons to about 4,600 million metric tons in 2020. The sharp drop 2019-2020 was due to Covid and shrinking economic activity. However, the reduction in U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide is almost 25%. As the economy recovers CO2 is expected to increase to about 5,000 million metric tons in 2023. This is still a 16 % reduction from 2007. The most effective path to further reductions in total carbon dioxide emissions is to use more nuclear power for power generation. However, due to supply-chain limits and restrictive Federal NRC Regulations, sufficient capacity of new nuclear plants to replace the over 102,000 MW of coal plants shut down since 2012 will take decades. See previous articles here and here.

Just to put the U.S. CO2 Emissions in perspective. Here is a chart from Our World in Data which shows the CO2 emissions of various countries. The U.S. produces about 16% of the world’s CO2 emissions. China produces about 26%. The comparisons of China and U.S. energy and manufacturing was discussed in a previous article.

Carbon dioxide emissions are primarily a matter of hydrocarbon chemistry. Both coal and gas fuels contain carbon and when combusted the products of combustion form CO2 . The creation of CO2 from combustion is impossible to change. Fuels that have fewer carbon atoms, such as methane, create less CO2 than coal. Coal fuel derives most of it’s energy from the combustion of the carbon molecules. Methane derives most of it’s energy from the combustion of the hydrogen molecules. The figure below shows the electric power production 2004 and 2019. The greater use of natural gas is due to the Hydraulic Fracturing Revolution which greatly increased U.S. natural gas production with a consequent reduction is natural gas pricing. Harold Hamm’s book, “Gamechanger” chronicles the Shale Gas Revolution. The increased supply of low cost natural gas kept electricity prices stable until current times.

The electric power generation from natural gas in 2024 is expected to be over 50%. Is This Good?

Why? Because of increased solar and wind generation facilities need to be backed up with reliable, dispatchable Bulk Power generation capacity. Also, reliable coal plants are being prematurely retired and demolished, which I discussed in a previous article here. Therefore natural gas generation has grown rapidly from both the shutdowns of coal plants and the increased CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) plants built to provide power when the wind is not blowing and sun not shining.

Greater dependence on natural gas is good for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, as the U.S. has demonstrated since 2007. See chart below.

However, Dependence on “Just in Time” pipeline supplied natural gas is risky for a reliable electricity supply. Why is it risky? Because if pipelines are compromised whether by extreme weather, mechanical failure, government regulations, or by criminal sabotage, the fuel supply can be interrupted. With no fuel on site storage, a major highly efficient and state of the art, 600 MW CCGT power plant will reach zero power output in minutes when pipeline gas stops. However, Coal and nuclear plants can store sufficient primary energy for months and in the case of nuclear, years of generation. A Balanced generation portfolio of at least 75% Dispatchable nuclear and coal plants is preferred, in my experience.

Slide from Dick Storm USCB-OLLI Course, Energy and Electricity Generation 2021

One of the main reasons the total CO2 emissions of the U.S. dropped since 2007 is largely due to the increased use of natural gas to replace coal for power generation. Good, as long as a reliable gas supply is maintained. As mentioned above, and worth repeating, the U.S. will likely reach 50% + dependency on natural gas fueled power plants for fuel in 2024. I see this as an unbalanced and risky generation portfolio. But, then most of my career was as a coal power generation engineer.

Air Quality has Improved since 1970

The overall trend of improving air quality is shown on the chart from the EPA below. Yes, in 1970, the EPA was needed to clean our air. The six major pollutants of CO, Sulfur, Lead, Ozone, Particulates and Nitrogen Oxides have been drastically reduced to healthy levels, even as population, GDP and vehicle miles driven have increased.

https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/air-quality-national-summary

Chemistry of Combustion and CO2

Let’s get back to the fundamental chemistry of natural gas and why natural gas produces less carbon dioxide than coal for the same unit of power generation. Gas power generation produces about half the CO2 of a similar unit of electricity generation from coal. Why? Primarily because natural gas is over 95% methane. The chemical symbol of Methane is CH4 . That is four molecules of hydrogen and one molecule of carbon. This compared to coal which, depending on the coal rank, and on an ash and moisture free basis, derives about 95% of its heating value from carbon. This is the main reason of why and how America has led the world in carbon dioxide reductions since 2012. Substituting coal power generation with natural gas can provide the same primary energy as coal with about 50% of the carbon dioxide emissions, due mostly to the differences of carbon intensity of methane and coal. Another factor in power generation is, that “Combined Cycle Gas Turbine” (CCGT) plants are much more efficient than Rankine Cycle coal fueled steam plants. Modern gas fueled CCGT plants can achieve up to about 65% efficiency, Ultra-supercritical Steam plants up to about 42% efficiency.

Here are examples of coal and methane molecules to illustrate the different carbon intensity of coal and natural gas.

A molecule of methane gas has one central atom of carbon with a molecular weight of 12 surrounded by four atoms of hydrogen, each with a molecular weight of 1.

A coal molecule, by comparison is mostly carbon and derives most of it’s heating value (primary energy) from carbon.

Fundamentals of Energy and Work

America uses right at 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary energy. Previous article here. Each BTU (British Thermal Unit) when converted to work at 100% efficiency is equivalent to 778 Foot Pounds of work and when 3,412.6 BTU’s are converted to electricity at 100% efficiency can generate 1 kWh. Human muscle power/energy is equivalent to about 100 watts. Think about using a hand pushed lawnmower, (if you remember those), and compare to cutting your lawn with a 2 Hp gasoline powered lawnmower with less than a gallon of gas in the tank. More on replacing muscle power, energy and economic prosperity are written on previous articles, here, here, here and here.

Energy and Economic Prosperity

Designing and manufacturing products provides jobs. Manufacturing provides funding for R&D to create new and better products. It is best for America if manufacturing was mostly within our borders. I have written on this before and the quote below is copied from substack, Doomberg (3)

Energy is not an input into the economy, IT IS THE ECONOMY. Humanity organizes its economic activities to ensure a steady growth in the extraction and exploitation of primary energy because energy is life, standards of living are defined by how much energy is available to be exploited, and all humans everywhere are perpetually seeking a higher standard of living.

Primary energy is what powers a modern economy and America needs about 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year. This was described in the series parts 1-4.(50, 51, 52, 53)

So, Where Does the 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary Energy Come From?

Here are the sources of Primary Energy for the U.S. in 2022.

As can be seen conventional fuels of natural gas, petroleum, nuclear and coal provide 87% of the energy we need (more than 89% if old hydroelectric plants are included). Eliminating fossil fuels (79%) will create great harm to our economy. Those of us that were adults in the 1970’s remember the economic pain and disruption of our lives due to the Oil Embargoes. Temporary loss of industrial capacity, jobs, and restrictions on travel and our way of life. The Oil Embargoes of 1973-1980 were temporary and America solved the energy shortages! Now, Forcing Net-Zero Carbon by current government Regulations will be irreversible and permanent. Our politicians could take a look at the impact on the German economy from their attempt to replace coal and nuclear with wind and solar. It has not worked and is well documented. Here are two references, Here and here.

Loss of Supply-Chains are Nearly Irreversible

Once Net-Zero Carbon is imposed, the Domestic supply chains will be lost. Therefore, without a rational transition Net Zero Carbon policies, aka “Inflation Reduction Act or Green New Deal”, will literally plunge us into darkness and despair if we do not wake up to the need to do much more with natural gas, coal and nuclear power to generate the electricity. We must have reliable, affordable and Dispatchable energy and electricity to sustain our lives. More energy to grow and prosper. I wrote and article covering the path of the U.S. nuclear power industry here. Long story short, we mortally wounded the nuclear steam system supply-chain with over-regulations by the NRC and other government decrees.

Summary and Conclusions

Reduction of Federal Regulations should be top priority. The total government Swamp Bureaucracy has been engaged to restrict conventional forms of energy. This must stop.

A rational path forward is to roll back EPA Rules to those in effect in 2012. It is my strong opinion and observation that any rules applied after 2012, especially those overly restrictive on coal plant emissions are simply weaponization of government against coal. Similar restrictive rules by other government agencies have been applied toward the production, refining and transport by pipeline of oil and gas. The Congressional report here, explains why I picked 2012 as a Roll back year..

Replacing much (but not all) of the 100 Quadrillion BTUs of needed energy in America could be done with carbon free nuclear electrification and even including hydrogen production from nuclear generated electric power. However, with current regulations and supply chain limitations, expanding nuclear beyond the current fleet will take decades. In my view nuclear power is a very good approach. As it was in 1954 when the head of the Atomic Energy Commission proclaimed, “Electricity from nuclear will be too cheap to meter”. It took about 30 years to reach 20% of U.S. electricity generation from nuclear. Since then, enormous regulatory roadblocks have been enacted into law that make a repeat 30 year success story very unlikely. So, what do I recommend? I recommend rolling back EPA rules to those in effect in 2012 and building new coal and nuclear plants. Coal and nuclear generation is the foundation of electricity reliability even today when there is extreme weather, especially extremely cold winter periods. So, why not build some more proven coal and nuclear plants to strengthen our energy and electricity reliability and security with a “Balanced Portfolio” of generation?

In closing, let me quote chapter 8 of Donn Dears book, “Clean Energy Crisis“. This is what Mr. Dears calculated that it would take to replace fossil fuels with carbon free power. Build these:

881 new nuclear power plants similar in size to one of Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle Units

BTW it took over ten years to just build two 1,100 MW units at Vogtle

995,141 new 2.5 MW wind turbines

3,919,006 MW of PV of solar power

Read Mr. Dears book. It is only 128 pages including the index, Dears Bio and references. Please also read the other references below. Most importantly, become an energy savvy voter in November. America needs a realistic path forward for energy and electricity production. Thank you for reading this.

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, March 9, 2024

References for further reading and research

  1. Wall Street Journal Editors Opinion, “Big Climate (Government) Censors Opposition to EV’s” : https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-electric-vehicle-mandate-american-fuel-and-petrochemical-manufacturers-ads-fcc-climate-power-578876e5?mod=latest_headlines
  2. NASA Goddard Space Center information on the Environment and methane gas: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/archive/200409_methane/
  3. Doomberg, Atlas Won’t Shrug”, Energy is the Economy, feb. 20, 2024: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/atlas-wont-shrug
  4. Comparisons of China and U.S. from an energy perspective, Jan. 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/18/comparison-of-china-energy-electricity-generation-with-u-s-a/
  5. China CO2 Emissions about 26% of world total in 2022, by Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1037051/china-global-carbon-emission-share/#:~:text=China%27s%20share%20in%20the%20global%20carbon%20emissions%202002%2D2022&text=China%20accounted%20for%2026%20percent,rapid%20industrialization%20and%20economic%20growth.
  6. Without New Thinking on Nuclear Power, Anti-Carbon Policy Can’t Succeed, Nov. 11, 2021 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/11/13/without-new-thinking-on-nuclear-power-anti-carbon-climate-policy-cant-succeed/
  7. Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 2, The Reality of Replacing Conventional Forms of Energy, Jan. 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/06/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-2-some-facts-on-the-reality-of-replacing-conventional-forms-of-energy/
  8. Review of Harold Hamm’s Book, “Gamechanger” on Dick Storm blog: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/17/harold-hamms-book-game-changer-a-must-read-for-elected-officials-and-candidates-for-elective-office/
  9. “The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be”, Dick Storm blog, Oct. 16, 2021: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/10/16/the-war-on-carbon-how-it-came-to-be/
  10. Thomas J. Shepstone article, ” Wake up America, Your Energy Security is Being Sabotaged from Within” March 4, 2024 : https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tom-shepstone-b70b04b_wake-up-america-your-energy-security-is-activity-7170753138457567233-SqI3?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  11. The Importance of Energy to Power Our Lives, Part 2, Aug. 28, 2020 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/08/28/the-importance-of-energy-part-2-our-energy-sources/
  12. The Importance of Energy, Part 3, Heat Engines, Sept. 9, 2020: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/09/09/the-importance-of-energy-part-3-heat-engines-a-primer/
  13. 830,000 BTUs per Day/Person, Sept. 2021: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/09/16/830000-btus-per-day-person/
  14. Understanding Data Center Electricity Demand by C&C Techgroup, June 2023: https://cc-techgroup.com/data-center-energy-consumption/
  15. Power Hungry Google Data Centers to be Built in S.C. Charleston Business Journal, Feb. 15, 2024: https://charlestonbusiness.com/tech-giant-google-coming-to-dorchester-county/
  16. America is Running Out of Electricity Generation, Washington Post, March 7, 2024: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/amid-explosive-demand-america-is-running-out-of-power/ar-BB1jtM69
  17. EPA Air Quality Trends, Nov. 2023: https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/air-quality-national-summary
  18. Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 1,  79 Quadrillion BTUs, The Enormity of the Fossil Energy Systems Providing Sustainable Lives, Jan. 11, 2024 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/01/11/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-1-79-quadrillion-btusthe-enormity-of-the-fossil-energy-systems-providing-sustainable-lives/
  19. The Green Energy Crisis is Here, Part 1, May 29, 2024 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/29/the-green-energy-crisis-is-here-part-1/
  20. The Green Energy Crisis, Part 2, The Influencers that Caused it, :
  21. The Green Energy Crisis, Part 3, June 26, 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/06/26/green-energy-crisis-part-3-public-energy-education-is-needed-each-person-in-the-u-s-uses-about-315-million-btus-of-primary-energy-year-this-is-not-practical-or-even-possible-to-replace-with-win/
  22. The German De-Industrialization Experience from Too Much Dependence on Green Power, Politico on German Indstry Shutting Down, Moving to China due to shortages and high Costs of energy: https://www.politico.eu/article/rust-belt-on-the-rhine-the-deindustrialization-of-germany/
  23. Bloomberg, German Industry Days as Industrial Superpower Coming to an End, due to Energy Costs/shortages: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-10/why-germany-s-days-as-an-industrial-superpower-are-coming-to-an-end?embedded-checkout=true
  24. ENERUM Energy Forum in Columbus, Ohio, August 2022. Dick Storm Presentation on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_presentation-and-speakers-notes-from-august-activity-7068650158862827520-B-_W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktophttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7056884647858765824?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7056884647858765824%29
  25. Wake Up Americans, Your Energy and Electricity Reliability is At Risk!:
  26. Hawaii Electric, “A Glimpse Into The Future of The Green New Deal” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/06/03/hawaii-a-gimpse-into-the-future-of-the-green-new-deal/
  27. American Dream=100 Quadrillion BTUs of Energy/Year, July 4th, 2022 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/07/04/american-dream-100-quadrillion-btus/
  28. You Tube Video, “Juice” Part #1, Texas 2021 Blackout and concerns for the Grid: https://juicetheseries.com
  29. Five Great Videos about the Grid, Feb. 2024: https://open.substack.com/pub/blackmon/p/meredith-angwin-5-great-videos-about?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
  30. The Rise, Fall and Rise Again of Nations and the Realities of Energy, Dick Storm Blog, 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/08/15/the-rise-fall-and-rise-again-of-nations-and-the-realities-of-energy/
  31. Institute for Energy Research (IER) listing of 200 actions by the Biden Administration and Democrats to make it harder to produce oil and gas in the U.S. March 2024: https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/200-Ways-the-Biden-Administration-Has-Made-it-Harder-to-Produce-Oil-Gas.pdf
  32. NRC Archives on the History of the Lewis Strauss, then AEC Head, phrase, “Nuclear Power Will Be Too Cheap to Meter”: https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/students/history-101/too-cheap-to-meter.html
  33. Excellent article by Paul Driessen on the expansion of Government Regulations that restrict America’s Energy and Electricity Producers, PA Pundits, Feb. 2024: https://papundits.wordpress.com/2024/02/13/congress-and-the-courts-enable-climate-and-energy-fantasies-and-government-expansion/
  34. Robert Bryce article on NGO’s and how they impact Federal Regulations, March 2024: https://open.substack.com/pub/robertbryce/p/these-10-charts-caused-an-ngo-hissy?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
  35. Grid Operators Warn of Blackouts due to Excessive EPA Rules, America’s Power, March 6, 2024: https://americaspower.org/operators-regulators-concerned/
  36. 114th Congress, Majority Staff Report, Obama’s Carbon Mandate, August 2015: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
  37. Dick Storm USCB-OLLI Courses, Energy and Electricity Generation 2021, 2022 and 2023
  38. Stanford University Report on Human Energy by Muscle power: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph240/labonta1/#:~:text=The%20average%20human%2C%20at%20rest,can%20output%20over%202%2C000%20watts.
  39. Dick Storm Rotary Club and Sun City, “Money Talks” Club presentations.
  40. Ron Stein LinkedIn article on the importance of crude oil: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ronaldstein_are-policymakers-oblivious-to-the-importance-activity-7165495295676461056-v58C?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  41. “Clean Energy Crisis”, Book by Donn Dears, 2023. An excellently written, short and concise review of the energy crisis we are facing. Available on Amazon: https://ddears.com/2023/01/03/clean-energy-crisis/
  42. Energy and Economic Prosperity, Comparison of China and U.S. Dick Storm Blog, Sept. 9, 2020 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/09/21/part-4-the-importance-of-energy-to-economic-prosperity/
  43. The rise of China’s Influence in the World and the Need to Reshore Manufacturing to the U.S. , Dick Storm Blog, Nov. 3, 2020: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/11/03/chinas-economic-influence-in-the-world-and-some-thoughts-on-the-need-to-reshore-american-manufacturing/  
  44. How the Energy Crisis is Exacerbating the Food Crisis, IEA, 2023: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-the-energy-crisis-is-exacerbating-the-food-crisis
  45. Dick Storm presentation to the “Delaware County Bar Association in Media, PA, “Energy and Economic Prosperity, My Thoughts” July 2016: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2016/07/25/energy-and-economic-prosperity-my-thoughts-dick-storm/
  46. Ken Haapala’s Science Engineering and Environment Policy Project Newsletters, Main page: http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm
  47. Hawaii’s Green New Deal, A Glimpse into the Future of Electricity Reliability and Cost, based on the “Energy Island of Hawaii, June, 2020: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/06/03/hawaii-a-gimpse-into-the-future-of-the-green-new-deal/
  48. Dick Storm Panel Discussion Takeaways at PowerGen 2024, LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_i-had-the-honor-of-being-on-a-powergen-panel-activity-7156046708139782144-zPoZ?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  49. U.S. Energy Policy Influencers from Dick Storm’s viewpoint, Jan. 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/04/influencers-of-american-energy-policy/
  50. Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 1,  79 Quadrillion BTUs, The Enormity of the Fossil Energy Systems Providing Sustainable Lives, Jan. 11, 2024 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/01/11/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-1-79-quadrillion-btusthe-enormity-of-the-fossil-energy-systems-providing-sustainable-lives/
  51. Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 2, The Reality of Replacing Conventional Forms of Energy, Jan. 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/06/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-2-some-facts-on-the-reality-of-replacing-conventional-forms-of-energy/
  52.  Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 3, The Transition that Isn’t, from the perspective of Minerals, Feb. 8, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/08/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-3-the-transition-that-isnt-from-the-perspective-of-minerals/
  53. Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 4, The True Agenda for Climate Policies, Feb. 13, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/13/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-electricity-generation-and-environmental-protection-part-4-what-is-the-true-agenda-for-climate-policies/
  54. PJM Triples Annual Load Growth Projections Due to New Data Center Demand, Utility Dive, January 2024: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-load-forecast-data-center-ev-dominion-firstenergy/704040/
Basic Energy Knowledge, Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Education, Nuclear

Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 1: 79 Quadrillion Btus:The Enormity of the Fossil Energy Systems Providing Sustainable Lives

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Conventional energy is vitally important for all that we do. Missing from news reports to the general public is an honest communication to try to explain the huge and enormous energy systems that we depend on each day and the impossibility of replacing conventional energy with wind and solar. To start 2024, I thought I would post a series on the Hard Truths of Energy. I borrowed the title from the 2007 National Petroleum Council report, led by Chairman, Lee Raymond, retired CEO of ExxonMobil. Petroleum, natural gas and coal were important in 2007 and they remain important today. The “Energy Density” of fossil fuels makes them indispensable to sustain our economy and our high quality of life.(4)

Fossil Fuels Provide 79% of U.S. Primary Energy

79 Quadrillion BTUs is the amount of energy we depend on from fossil fuels. This is my attempt to try to explain and illustrate what 79 Quadrillion BTUs of energy looks like. The number 79 Quadrillion is from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore Laboratory for energy use in 2022.(2) Below is a short summary of the amount of natural gas, petroleum and coal that we used in the U.S.A. in 2022.

How Huge is a Quadrillion?

I have discussed the steady U.S. energy demand of 100 Quadrillion BTUs per annum for decades and yes, 100 Quadrillion BTUs is the amount of energy we use each year and it has been steady for over 20 years.(6) Until now, I did not take the time to explain the enormity of a Quadrillion BTUs. Here is what one Quadrillion BTUs of energy is equivalent to:

Coal= About 50 million tons of coal. This would be a coal pile that would be one mile wide, ten feet high and 3.3 miles long.

Oil= 7.14 Billion gallons. See Lee Raymond quote below on the quantity of motor fuels used in the U.S. in a year

Natural Gas= 1 Trillion cubic feet. This is equivalent to 200 aircraft carrier sized LNG Tankers. More on the enormity of an LNG ship below.

It is a fact, in America, we use and need about 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year.

36 Quadrillion BTUs of Petroleum

The single largest form of energy that we depend on is petroleum. About 20 million barrels per day. To visualize what 20 million barrels per day would look like, take a look at the photo of me and the 48″ Alyeska pipeline in Alaska. At its peak flow, about 2 million barrels per day flowed through the Alaska pipeline. So, to visualize 20 million barrels per day, picture in your mind, ten of these 48″ pipelines installed side by side.

The Alaska pipeline. Capacity about 2 million barrels per day. This is to help visualize what 20 million barrels per day would look like. Picture ten of these side by side. This is the enormity of the petroleum needed to supply America
Photo credit, Dick Storm circa 2007

Another illustration was offered by Lee Raymond, retired CEO of ExxonMobil when introducing the National Petroleum Council report “Facing the Hard Truths of Energy” in 2007. This explanation is offered by Mr. Raymond on You Tube, here. Mr. Raymond explained that the amount of motor fuels used in 2006 was about 150 Billion gallons. He then went on to state that if each gallon was placed in a one gallon tin can as he used in his youth to fill his lawnmower, the length of 10″ high cans, if placed end to end would circle the earth 1,000 times. That is the enormity of 150 Billion gallons of motor fuel. Mr. Raymond stated, (among other important points), “To replace current energy systems it will take a an enormous effort and a long period of Time.”(5)

The gasoline and Diesel motor fuels used in the U.S. has increased from the 150 Billion gallons consumed in 2007, to about 209 Billion gallons in 2022.

33 Quadrillion BTUs of Natural Gas

America used 33.4 Quadrillion BTUs of natural gas during 2022. Most of the natural gas used by the U.S. is distributed by a vast network of unseen, underground pipelines. Therefore, hard to visualize. So, let’s imagine that if we were to use all of our natural gas from shipments of LNG, (Liquified Natural Gas) how many huge LNG Super Tankers would it take? Such as the vessel Pan American shown below:

Pan American Specs: https://www.balticshipping.com/vessel/imo/9750232

This LNG tanker holds 174,000 cubic feet of liquified natural gas. LNG is 1/600th the volume of the gaseous state. The ship is over 977 feet long and the gross tonnage is 114,966. This is a ship about the size of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier. The energy equivalent of the cargo is about 6 trillion BTUs.

Now, imagine 6,600 ships like the Pan American above all lined up along the east coast. If the ships were placed touching, end to end, this would be about 1,220 miles of ships from New York City to south of Miami, Florida. That is the number of aircraft carrier sized LNG tankers that it would take to provide 33 Quadrillion BTUs of natural gas fuel. The 33 Quadrillion number is from 2022, the actual demand. The future will likely require more than 33.4 Quadrillion BTUs.

10 Quadrillion BTUs of Coal Power

Coal power has been important to the U.S. since the days of Thomas Edison, Nikola Tesla and George Westinghouse. The American electric system, referred to as the “Grid” was built on the foundation of reliable, affordable, domestically supplied and environmentally clean steam power generation fueled by coal. This took over 125 years to build and has been described by the Smithsonian as, “The Largest Machine Ever Built”. Video here. As recent as 2011 about 50% of America’s electricity was produced by steam turbines with steam generation from coal fuel. In 2022 the coal powered electricity generation dropped to about 20%. Much of the total electricity generation which was once powered by coal fuel, has been switched to natural gas fuel. 

As recent as 2011 America used about a billion tons of coal. In 2022 coal use declined by about 50% to about 512,000 million tons. Coal is important because of it’s enormous energy density. Another important fact, is that weeks and months of primary energy can be safely stored on site. Coal provides Dispatchable power and it is proven to be affordable. America has the largest coal reserves of any country. The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal.

How much coal is 512,000 million tons? This is enough coal to fill about 5,000,000 coal cars such as the one shown below.

https://www.bnsf.com/ship-with-bnsf/ways-of-shipping/equipment/coal-cars.html

How long would a single train of 512,000,000 tons of coal be? About 50,000 miles, long enough to circle the earth two times at the equator.

Conclusions

The so-called energy transition from conventional to wind and solar is simply not possible with today’s technology. As Mr. Raymond stated in 2007, changing from our conventional energy systems to something else is an enormous effort that will take. a long time.

Net-Zero Carbon by 2050 is impossible. A previous blog post is here.

The largest energy density and provider of the greatest quantity of carbon-free energy is nuclear power. However, replacing the existing electric generation with nuclear will take decades to accomplish and massive roll back of Federal Regulations. It took about 40 years to develop, manufacture, construct and perfect the 93 operating commercial nuclear units in 54 plants. These currently provide about 20% of America’s electricity. Most of these are now over 30 years old and the last two units built by Southern Company (2,200MW capacity) took over ten years to build. A previous blog post discusses “Without New Thinking on Nuclear Power, Net Zero Carbon is Impossible”, here.

Electrifying Everything is not possible, even electrifying transportation is not practical for every vehicle and if they were, much more electricity would be required.

The so-called energy transition from conventional forms of energy to wind and solar is impossible and attempting to do so by forced laws (such as the IRA), increased Regulations and the continuing war on carbon will destroy our country.

It is my hope and prayer that after the next election some sanity to energy policy will return.

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, January 11, 2024

References

  1. LNG Shipping Newsletter, 2015 by Riviera: https://www.rivieramm.com/opinion/opinion/lng-shipping-by-numbers-36027
  2. LLNL Energy Flow Diagram: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov
  3. EIA Coal fuel used in 2022, Nov. 2023: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61022
  4. 2007 National Petroleum Council report: “Facing the Hard Truths of Energy”: https://npchardtruthsreport.org
  5. Lee Raymond video at Council of Foreign Relations meeting in 2007: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYRH97e-nlM
  6. Dick Storm Blog, “America Needs 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary Energy each Year” March 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/16/back-to-basics-the-u-s-needs-100-quadrillion-btus-year-of-primary-energy/
  7. The Smithsonian Magazine, “The U.S. Electric Grid, The Largest Machine Ever Built”, you tube : https://www.smithsonianmag.com/videos/category/history/the-largest-machine-ever-built/
  8. Dick Storm Blog, “What Would it Take to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon by 2050” https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/12/what-would-it-take-for-net-zero-electricity-generation-by-2050/
  9. EIA Nuclear Plants in the U.S. : https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=207&t=21
  10. Dick Storm Blog, Oct. 2021 “The War on Carbon and How it Came to Be” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/10/16/the-war-on-carbon-how-it-came-to-be/
Basic Energy Knowledge, Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Energy and Electricity Fundamentals, Fossil Fuels are Important, Keeping America Great, Nuclear, Nuclear Power Generation

The Importance of Fuel Diversity to Power Our Economy and Our Lives, Part 1

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Much has been written on the importance of energy to power a nation’s economy and to continue to provide a high quality Human Development Index. The purpose of this post is to focus on the importance of Fuel Diversity for electricity generation. There is a proven concept for energy storage for electricity generation. It is coal fueled power plants with a 30-60 day supply of coal in a pile, on site. This is proven to be reliable, low cost and safe.

Energy powers everything we do!

Think about this. You are probably reading this on a computer screen. Have a warm cup of coffee nearby and are sitting in an air conditioned office or home. Your car is sitting outside and at your urging is ready to provide transportation. You get the point. Remember the last hurricane or severe winter storm that killed power for a day or so? Loss of energy sources or electricity is debilitating. Think about the 1970’s Oil Embargoes. If you are too young to remember 1973-1979 check these references, here and here.

Primary Energy Sources-Back to Basics

Lets discuss energy and electricity and the sources and quantity of everyday energy that we depend on.

America has used right at 100 Quadrillion Btus of PRIMARY energy per annum since about the year 2000.

The energy we use is compiled by various government agencies in BTUs equivalent (British Thermal Units). A BTU is enough heat to raise one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit, just as a reminder of High School Physics. Each BTU converted to work is equivalent (at 100% efficiency) to 778 Foot Pounds. Therefore, the energy production and consumption is converted to BTUs so that all forms of energy can be reported on a like basis. I wrote an article on the basics of energy for Middle School students here if you are interested, also on “Demystifying Energy and Electricity” here.

This article is about fuel diversity. Just as I explained above regarding the reporting of energy in BTUs to have a common measurement of energy quantities, in some cases one fuel can be substituted for another, especially in electric power generation. Thermal Power Generation Plants that generate Bulk Power can be provided with natural gas, coal, oil, Biomass or nuclear energy to produce steam to drive a steam turbine generator. The fuel selected is done for reasons of economic or fuel availability. Hawaii is truly an Energy Island and thus cannot interconnect with the lower 48 states. Fuels for Thermal Power Generation needs to be imported. In fact, I wrote on Hawaii’s electricity generation in 2020, here.

The proportions of each form of energy used and depended on to power our lives has changed as technologies for extraction and production have improved. For example for electric power generation coal fuel was consumed for about 50% of power generation in year 2000. Then due to the Shale Revolution of Hydraulic Fracturing and Directional Drilling, natural gas became less expensive than coal on a $/million BTU basis. See my review of Harold Hamm’s book, Game Changer which covers the Shale Gas Revolution, here. Thus, gas was substituted for coal generation by many utilities that could get it. Alaska and Hawaii of course do not have pipelines to connect, but of many utilities in the lower 48 states, gas was an economical and clean fuel of choice.

Coal fuel in the U.S. today provides about 23 % of the primary energy to produce Bulk Electric Power over the year. The substitution of coal fuel as primary energy is natural gas which has become more economical as a result of the Shale gas revolution which took off about 2012. Electricity is SECONDARY Energy and must be produced from Primary energy. Electricity is important and in 2022 electricity consumed about a third (37.7% to be exact) of the total PRIMARY energy used in the U.S. The best factual illustration that I am aware, of the sources and consumption of primary energy is the LLNL Energy Flow Diagram, shown below. This is one of my favorite graphics and it is prepared each year by the Department of Energy. The chart above shows the total primary energy used since 1950 and thus supports my conclusion that America needs right at 100 Quads per year to sustain our quality of life, economy and industrial production.

Lawrence Livermore Laboratory Sankey Diagram of U.S. Energy Flows, 2022

The total Primary Energy used by the U.S. from coal fuel in 2022 was about 10% of the total. (9.91% from data above). That doesn’t seem like much does it? Remember, this is primary energy I am talking about. So, although coal only provided about 10% of our total primary energy it was in fact, Dispatchable, affordable and it provided electricity generation when solar and wind were not available. The chart below is of MISO generation by fuel this past summer. This example shows 40% of total power generation in MISO from coal at this moment in time.

The topic of this article is “The Importance of Fuel Diversity”. The example above of summer Bulk Power Generation depending on coal fueled power generation units is just one of many reasons America should keep our Fuel Diversity. Another example of the importance of coal plants and the consequences of shutting them down is discussed in my blog post discussing the February 2021 Texas Blackout that killed over 200 people. Here.

My previous post on De-Mystifying Energy attempted to explain this, here. The difference between Primary and Secondary Energy is important. If everything is Electrified as many suggest we should do, has anyone really thought through where the primary energy to do so is to be sourced? In my opinion, it has not. Wind and solar cannot replace the primary energy currently required. The four charts shown up to here should make that clear.

Government policy and many people in the general public believe that renewables can replace fossil fuels and nuclear. The harsh reality is that after decades of government subsidies & tax credits wind and solar provide less than 6% of our total PRIMARY energy. Here below is the LLNL Energy Flow Diagram from 2021 with the 4.96% wind and solar contribution circled.

Public demonization of all conventional fuels including nuclear, coal, gas, gasoline, Diesel are unAmerican and foolish. Wind and solar only provide single digits of the total Primary energy needed to power our lives and it will be impossible to ramp wind & solar renewables up to 100% of our energy needs. The charts above are from the government statistics as published on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sankey Diagram website, an excellent resource.

Back to Fuel Diversity

Each American citizen, on average is accustomed to using about 315 million Btus of energy per year. I have written separate articles on American energy use here and here. My first point is that we all need on average of about 863,000 to 1 million Btus each day in Total Primary Energy. This number is provided by dividing 330 million citizens into 100 Quadrillion Btus and then dividing that by 365 days/year = 863,000 BTUs per day/citizen of PRIMARY Energy. This is for all uses which (see LLNL chart above) including: Electricity generation, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial and Residential uses. The second important point is that providing this energy each day may be from various forms of energy. Depending on which is more efficient or more economical. Let’s take an example of electric generation on July 21, 2023 in the Midwest at about 2:00 PM in the afternoon (example above). It was more economical to use coal fuel for 40% of the electricity generation at that hour. It may have been, I do not know for sure, that only coal generation could deliver the electricity Demand at that moment. The fact is, coal delivered 40% of the electricity at that moment.

Let’s take another example from last winter. This example below is from Christmas week, 2022.

Fuel Diversity with more coal plants ready to operate and properly maintained could have avoided the Blackouts of Christmas week, 2022. Duke Energy has shut down many coal plants as part of their Net-Zero Carbon plan. So have many other Utilities, both Public and Investor Owned. I presented my views on this at the ENERUM (Columbus Ohio Energy Forum) in August 2022. My presentation is Here. Also, my recent article on the self sabotaging of our energy and electricity generation Grid is here.

Even well respected utilities that were once known for their outstanding leadership and engineering excellence are planning to shut more of their coal plants down in the near future. This works against Fuel Diversity! Here below is a screen print excerpt of the Duke Energy IRP for 2023:

These planned shut downs are in spite of the winter 2022 rolling Blackouts described above. Why? Because the N.C. politicians and top Duke management have agreed to follow a disastrous Net-Zero Carbon path. So has the S.C. Legislature and Santee-Cooper. I wrote about Santee-Cooper in an earlier article, here.

Energy Storage

My first instructor on electricity generation was in class in 1959. The instructor, Harry Park stated, “Electricity needs to be generated the instant that it is needed”. That stuck with me my entire career. Today intermittent renewables are the rage and of course, as Mr. Park stated in 1959, electricity needs to be generated or provided from storage the instant it is needed. That is what built America’s Grid and America’s strong economy. Reliable, affordable electricity available the instant it is needed or in today’s word, Demanded. The published articles I see regarding the justification of higher and higher percentages of wind and solar generation are dependent on electricity storage. The best and largest Bulk Power Storage systems today are “Pumped Storage Hydro”. Such as Duke Energy’s Bad Creek or TVA’s Raccoon Mountain. These work well where the local topography allows it. Bad Creek has about 1,200 ft of elevation change between the upper and lower reservoirs(21). Bad Creek is currently, according to N.C. Business Journal, being uprated to about 2,800 MW. TVA’s Raccoon Mountain provides 1,650 MW of storage. Two other alternatives for storage are batteries and hydrogen. The largest battery electric storage system (BESS) that I am aware is in California. This is at Moss Landing Plant in California. It is being uprated to 3,000 MWH. The “H” after MW means Hour. That means the electricity stored is good at the rated capacity for one hour. Enough time to start gas turbines or buy power from a neighboring utility on the grid. Hydrogen can be a source of storage too. However, it must be remembered that it takes about four times the input of electricity to produce one unit of Bulk Power from hydrogen. An excellent reference on this was published in Gas Turbine World Magazine in August 2022, Here. (22)

The most reliable, proven, safe and affordable form of Energy Storage: A large pile of coal onsite at a clean, efficient coal power plant. When I started in the power generation business in the 1960’s one of my experiences was in conducting a boiler efficiency test at a large power plant in Illinois. As I recall the explanation for the huge coal pile was, “Because of the possibility of Union walkouts at either the coal mines or the railroad, a 90 day supply of coal was required to be stored on site”. Proven, safe and affordable. The photo below is real long term energy storage. A coal pile can store enough energy for a 2,000 MW power plant to run full power for months, not hours as is currently planned for batteries.

Electricity, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial, Residential

These five categories of energy use are shown on the LLNL charts above. Americans with our current population of about 330 million, will need at least 100 Quads per year for the foreseeable future. If we are to sustain our quality of life and freedom to travel, we will continue to need about 100 Quads per year. This article is focussed on electricity generation and the 37% of America’s PRIMARY Energy used to generate Bulk Power. The second part of this article will cover the other 63% of our PRIMARY ENERGY.

Conclusion

It will be impossible to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar any time soon. Attempting to do so will create hardships, economic decline and a general weakness of our country including weakness of our National Security.

The best and most proven energy storage system that I have known through my entire career in power generation is a large coal pile. It was common for coal power plants to have 30 or 60 day supplies of coal storage on the plant site.

On a positive note, I wrote about the preceding 80 years the “Era of Affordable, Reliable Energy and Electricity Generation, Part 1” Here. America really did great things in making energy and electricity reliable and affordable for over 80 years. Coal plants became more efficient and clean, nuclear power came of age and America became energy independent and the largest producer of natural gas in the world. I chose 80 years because that covers my lifetime and I know the history of accomplishments during these times, because I worked in the power generation business for over 50 of those years. Experiences in design, maintenance, operations, tuning, upgrading, capacity improvements, Betterments, Heat-Rate Improvements, fuel flexibility, fouling and slagging reductions and emissions reductions of fossil power systems. I admit, I am not a policy wonk, I am a nuts and bolts power engineer. But, I have been gifted with many years of experiences and have traveled much of the world to witness the relationship of energy and economic prosperity.

The loss of legacy coal plants is threatening Bulk Power Supply Reliability by the loss of over 100,000 MW’s of reliable coal power generation capacity without replacing it in kind is wrong. I wrote on the “End of the Era of Reliable, Affordable Energy and Electricity” a couple weeks ago. It is here. The references included are from NERC, FERC and other reliable people and sources of information. I encourage the reader to check these references to decide for yourself.

Nuclear power generation is the only known technology to produce carbon dioxide free electric power. However, building a new nuclear power generation supply chain will take decades. David Archibald wrote an excellent article on “The Energy Future We Need to Have a Future Worth Having”, here. I also support nuclear for the long term, but the next 30 years are important to work through and hopefully, sustain our high quality of life until future technologies and the needed supply-chains are sufficiently developed for safe and reliable implementation. My previous blog post covered an overview of the needed new thinking (and policies) on nuclear power for carbon dioxide emissions reduction to succeed. here. (27)

Unless the current path to Net-Zero Carbon is stopped, America faces shortages of electricity, including rolling Blackouts during extreme weather. Such as the coming winter in December 2023 and January 2024. Please Wake up Americans, Your Energy and Electricity Supply is Being Self Sabotaged from Within!

Yours truly,

Dick Storm, October 25, 2023

References for further reading:

  1. Dick Storm Blog, Back to Basics, America Needs About 100 Quadrillion Btus each year: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/16/back-to-basics-the-u-s-needs-100-quadrillion-btus-year-of-primary-energy/
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Energy Flow Diagram for year 2022: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov
  3. Dick Storm Blog, “The American Dream=100 Quadrillion Btus of Energy: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/07/04/american-dream-100-quadrillion-btus/
  4. WFAE News Article on, “How Duke’s Power Failures Came to Be From Lack of Reserves over Christmas Eve, 2022: https://www.wfae.org/energy-environment/2023-01-12/how-a-lack-of-power-for-sale-led-to-duke-energys-christmas-eve-blackouts
  5. Dick Storm ENERUM, August 2022 presentation: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_presentation-and-speakers-notes-from-august-activity-7068650158862827520-B-_W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktophttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7056884647858765824?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7056884647858765824%29
  6. Dick Storm Blog post, “Mentoring of Middle School Students on the basics of energy and electricity”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/03/09/mentoring-the-middle-school-students/
  7. Dick Storm Blog post on Rotary presentation, “Demystifying Energy and Electric Power Generation”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/11/17/demystifying-the-importance-of-energy-and-electric-power/
  8. Dick Storm Blog, “Hawaii-A Glimpse Into the Future of the Green New Deal” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/06/03/hawaii-a-gimpse-into-the-future-of-the-green-new-deal/
  9. Harold Hamm’s book, “Game Changer” which chronicles the history of Hydraulic Fracturing, Directional Drilling and the Shale Gas Revolution: Dick Storm review: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/17/harold-hamms-book-game-changer-a-must-read-for-elected-officials-and-candidates-for-elective-office/
  10. Dick Storm Blog post, “The End of the Era of Abundant, Affordable Energy and Electricity” Thanks to misguided government Regulations: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/10/12/the-end-of-the-era-of-reliable-abundant-and-affordable-energy-and-electricity-part-ii/
  11. Dick Storm Blog, “How Can a 6,000 MW Utility Which Likely will be a 9,000 MW Utility in 2050, Achieve Net-Zero Carbon?” ; https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/04/27/how-can-a-6000-mw-regional-utility-in-2030-which-likely-will-be-a-9000-mw-utility-in-2050-achieve-net-zero-carbon/
  12. The Green Transition is “Social Vandalism” WUWT, Oct. 3, 2023:  https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/03/the-energy-transition-is-social-vandalism/
  13. America’s Power Coal Facts: https://americaspower.org/COAL-FACTS/
  14. NERC 200-2023 Winter Assessment: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_WRA_2022.pdf  
  15. CO2 Coalition, “Fear the Cold”, Cold is Bad for Humanity, October 24, 2023: https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Fear-the-Cold.html?soid=1101509381788&aid=TJ7nY5OPc1A
  16. Dick Storm Blog, “Green Energy Crisis, Part3”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/06/26/green-energy-crisis-part-3-public-energy-education-is-needed-each-person-in-the-u-s-uses-about-315-million-btus-of-primary-energy-year-this-is-not-practical-or-even-possible-to-replace-with-win/
  17. 1973 Oil Embargo, History by the Boston Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74
  18. The Arab Oil Embargo, 40 Years Later, by Center for Strategic International Studies, 2013: https://www.csis.org/analysis/arab-oil-embargo-40-years-later
  19. WUWT, David Archibald, “The Energy We Need For A Future Worth Having” , Oct. 25, 2023: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/25/the-energy-future-we-need-to-have-a-future-worth-having/
  20. NC Business Journal article on Duke’s Bad Creek Power Plant Size Doubling to 2,800 MW: https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2022/03/01/duke-energy-eyes-doubling-pumped-hydro-project.html
  21. Duke Energy Illumination article on Bad Creek Hydro Plant: https://illumination.duke-energy.com/articles/the-marvel-inside-the-mountain-4608936#:~:text=Because%20about%201%2C200%20feet%20separate,gravity%20to%20produce%20more%20electricity.
  22. Gas Turbine World Magazine, “The Green Hydrogen Numbers Just Do Not Add Up”, August 2022: https://gasturbineworld.com/gas-turbines-burning-green-hydrogen/
  23. Dick Storm Blog, “The End of Reliable, Affordable Energy and Electricity” Oct. 12, 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/10/12/the-end-of-the-era-of-reliable-abundant-and-affordable-energy-and-electricity-part-ii/
  24. Dick Storm Blog, “The Era of Reliable, Affordable Energy and Electricity Generation, Part 1” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/10/04/the-era-of-reliable-affordable-energy-and-electricity-generation-part-1/
  25. Dick Storm Blog on “Texas Missing 6,000 MW of Coal Generation during the February 2021 Blackout”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/02/19/texas-and-coal-power-6000-mws-of-coal-plant-capacity-is-missed/
  26. Dick Storm Blog, “Wake Up Americans, Your Energy and Electricity Supply is Being Self-Sabotaged”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/20/please-wake-up-america-your-energy-and-electricity-generation-reliability-are-at-risk/
  27. Dick Storm Blog, “Without New Thinking on Nuclear Power, Net-Zero Carbon Cannot Succeed”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/11/13/without-new-thinking-on-nuclear-power-anti-carbon-climate-policy-cant-succeed/
  28. FERC-NERC Report on Winter Reliability Lessons from winter storm Elliott: https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-nerc-release-final-report-lessons-winter-storm-elliott
Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Energy, Electricity, Economic Prosperity and Environmental Protection, Fossil Fuels are Important, Personal Experiences of Coal Plants and Industrial Expansion

The Era of Reliable, Affordable, Energy and Electricity Generation: Part 1

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This is my Perspective of Proven, Reliable, Affordable & Abundant Energy & Electricity Generation during my lifetime. Here are some of the significant technical advances, changes, regulations, incidents, events and policies that have shaped energy and power generation over the last eight decades. Some personal experiences are interjected during this era just to show where I am coming from in my perspective. Part 2 will cover my thoughts on the impossible transition to renewables.

A Brief History of the Improved Quality of Life Since WWII

Dr. Euan Mearns wrote in WUWT this short summary of the history of energy and the “Energy Transition as Social Vandalism”(19). An excerpt from the concise and well written essay:

“The mid 19th century also saw the development of early internal combustion engines, although at that time there was insufficient fuel for a motor industry. The Spindletop gusher and subsequent discoveries changed all that. The world was now awash with oil without any real market. Then in 1908, Henry Ford rolled out his Model T to begin the age of the car and mass transit. The Wright brothers’ first powered flight in 1908 led quickly to commercial air travel and eventually to the jet age.

Unparalleled development came with the 20th century and the introduction of nuclear power plants whose uranium fuel contains more than 16,000 times the energy content of coal, oil and natural gas. At the same time, hydroelectric power rapidly expanded and natural gas (the most energy dense of the fossil fuels by mass) became more available for electricity generation and home heating and cooking.

The introduction of gas-fired central heating enhanced the well-being of populations. Whole homes would be heated by hot-water radiators, and no longer would families have to huddle round a dirty coal fire. By 2000, life expectancy in world population had risen to 66 years, 78 years in the now developed countries.”

Looking back, I am awed by the progress that was made for the Betterment of the quality of life for Humankind. I am proud of my small contributions along the way.

Some of the Significant Energy & Electricity Mileposts: 1940-2023

  • Pulverized coal firing for steam generation becomes the predominant method of power generation
  • Mechanical dust collectors are used for collection of particulates
  • 1941 B&W invents and develops Cyclone Burners to fire low fusion midwestern coal with more than 70% of the ash collected as a molten smelt
  • 1943 Combustion-Engineering invents and develops Tilting Tangential Firing
  • Electrostatic precipitators are applied to large coal plants
  • 1949 First G-E Gas Turbine for electric power generation in the U.S. installed at Oklahoma Gas & Electric Belle Isle Plant
  • 1951 U.S. Navy Admiral Rickover obtains funding from Congress to build the first nuclear powered submarine, Nautilus
  • 1953 President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” initiative
  • Supercritical pressure steam generators become common place
  • 1955 USS Nautilus puts to sea
  • 1955 First “Atoms for Peace Conference” in Geneva
  • Steam temperatures and power generation from Rankine cycle steam plant efficiency approaches 40% design efficiency
  • 1957 Shippingport Nuclear Steam System, the first U.S. Commercial Reactor is proven
  • 1957-59 Philo and Eddystone Ultrasupercritical Units are placed in service
  • 1970 – President Nixon signs law to form EPA
  • Coal pulverizer state of the art advances to single pulverizers with over 100,000 pounds per hour capacity
  • 1973 First Oil Embargo
  • 1977 U.S. Department of Energy is formed with the intention to lead America to energy independence
  • The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is begun
  • 1978 EPA Clean Air Act
  • 1978 President Jimmy Carter signs Energy Policy Act
  • 1979 Three Mile Island Incident
  • 1980 Energy Security Act
  • 1988 G-E Single Cycle Aeroderivative Gas Turbine achieves 41.9% efficiency
  • 1990 EPA-Clean Air Act Amendment
  • 1991-First Horizontal Drilling by Enid Company in OK
  • Low NOx Burners or other NOx reduction systems are installed on most coal plants across the U.S.
  • Flue gas desulfurization becomes standard for coal plants
  • Selective Catalytic Reactors are used to reduce NOx
  • 2010 Hydraulic Fracturing combined with Directional Drilling by Harold Hamm’s company greatly increases shale gas production in ND
  • 2012 The Shale Gas Revolution produces natural gas at lower cost/million Btu than coal
  • 2014 CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) units achieve over 60% efficiency
  • 2018 G-E CCGT (Combined CycleGas Turbine) Reaches 64% Efficiency
  • 2020 Natural gas electricity generation provides over 38% of U.S. electricity production
  • 2022 U.S. Congress passes IRA Law and Biden signs, it codifies green energy

Reasonable Cost Energy & Electricity Improves Quality of Life

This is a personal story of electricity generation. Here is my take on how “Living Better Electrically” came to be, during my lifetime. Here is a typical TV ad from circa 1962, the year I entered the workforce.

Electricity Generation 1962-2012 Living Better Electrically

This 50 year period was my personal career, most of which I spent working in the electric power generation business. Including equipment design, manufacturing, startup, testing, operations, maintenance, emissions reduction and upgrading of coal power production equipment. My specialty was large electric utility fuel burning and steam generating equipment. Upon graduation from Williamson in 1962 I was employed as an electrician then as a utility engineer at Mobil Oil Corporation. In 1966 I joined Babcock & Wilcox working in Barberton, Ohio as a Technical Assistant to the Project Engineer in the Nuclear and Special Projects Department. Projects that I worked on as part of the B&W team were the Duke Oconee Nuclear Steam Systems, numerous reactors, steam generators and pressurizers for Navy Nuclear Propulsion Systems and large heavy walled, high pressure, pressure vessels for the Petrochemical industry.

Duke, Oconee #1 Reactor Vessel at B&W Shop in Mt. Vernon, Indiana, from Duke Annual Report 1967

In the 1960’s electricity was very reasonable in cost and nuclear power was proclaimed by the AEC Head (Atomic Energy Commission) Lewis Strauss as soon to be “Too Cheap to Meter”. Commercial nuclear power generation had been proven at Shippingport and was growing exponentially in applications all across the country. The two most memorable engineering leaders that I remember visiting B&W’s Barberton facilities (while I worked there) were Admiral Rickover, the Father of the nuclear Navy and commercial nuclear power generation and Bill Lee, who at the time, was Duke Power Company’s VP of engineering. Mr. Lee was said to have favored the B&W Nuclear Steam System because it was slightly more efficient with the Once through Steam Generator providing a small amount of superheat that competing NSS (Nuclear Steam Systems) did not provide, to the steam supply to the turbine. Duke Power at the time, had commissioned some of the most efficient coal plants in the world and planned to extract the highest possible efficiency from their first nuclear powered steam supply system. This was logical to Mr. Lee and one reason he was attracted to the new B&W OTSG (Once Through Steam Generator) which was designed for a few degrees of superheated steam temperature. My previous blog post discussed the B&W, C-E and Westinghouse nuclear power manufacturing facilities here.

The Most Efficient and Largest Supercritical Coal Power Plants Built 1957-1975

The 1960’s were exciting times for coal fueled power plants too. Two Milestone supercritical power plants were built and started up during this time. The 5,000 psi Eddystone Steam Station (Philadelphia Electric) with a steam generator built by Combustion Engineering and the 4,700 psi Philo Plant (AEP) steam generator was built by Babcock & Wilcox.

Soon after these magnificent accomplishments was the 900 MW Combustion Engineering series of supercritical steam generators at Conemaugh & Keystone plants in western PA. Then the 1,300 MW supercritical steam generators built by B&W for AEP and TVA. Certainly impressive to me at the time with furnaces over 100 foot wide and operation at over 3,500 psi with superheated main steam at 1,000 degrees F. and also Reheated steam supply to 1,000 degrees F.

Duke Power designed, installed, operated and maintained the most efficient coal plants in the world with the additions of Marshall Units 3 & 4 on Lake Norman in 1969 and 1970.

Later, the Belews Creek coal plant was installed and between Marshall and Belews Creek competed for the highest efficiency coal plants in the U.S. Belews Creek Steam Station is a 2.24-GW, two-unit coal-fired generating facility located on Belews Lake in Stokes County, North Carolina. It is or was  Duke Energy’s largest coal-burning power plant in the Carolinas and when it was operated on coal it ranked among the most efficient coal facilities in the United States. During 2006, it was the fifth most efficient coal power plant in the United States with a heat rate of 9,023 Btu/kWh (37.8% conversion efficiency). In 2008, it was the #1 most efficient coal power plant in the United States with a heat rate of 9,204 British thermal units per kilowatt-hour (2.697 kWh/kWh) or 37.1% conversion efficiency.

A Few of My Personal Experiences with Coal Plants in the 1970’s

My first foray into S.C. was as one of three startup engineers for the SCE&G Wateree coal plant in Eastover, SC. This is a coal fueled, two unit supercritical steam supply plant which uses two Riley Stoker supercritical steam generators. These are the only two supercritical steam generators built by Riley. They have been very successful and in fact, at this writing are still in service 53 years after the startup of Unit #1. After that in 1972 I was assigned as lead startup engineer at the 420 MW Sutton Unit #3 near Wilmington ,NC. This plant is shown below during steam line blowing in June 1972. Steam line blowing was one of my favorite activities in the startup of a new plant. The roar of the exiting steam at supersonic velocity was memorable and provided a sense of the enormous power of steam. Steam line blowing is a one time startup operation to remove grit and foreign debris from inside the superheater and reheater tubes and piping, so that when operation begins, solid particles of debris will not damage the steam turbine blades.

Following the startup of Sutton #3, in January 1973 I joined Carolina Power and Light Company as a senior engineer. My first assignment was as the lead startup engineer on Roxboro Unit #3. This is a 720 MW coal Unit with a unique design of two half capacity boilers and one common feedwater supply train with a blended single stream steam supply to one G-E 720 MW turbine rated at 2,400 psi 1,000 degree F. Superheat and 1,000 degree F. Reheated steam to the last 13 stages of the turbine. The Roxboro plant is shown below in a recent photo by Duke Energy. This plant was started up as CP&L and was later absorbed to be part of Duke Energy.

Reasonable Cost, Abundant, Reliable and Dispatchable Coal and Nuclear Provide the lowest Cost Electricity in the World

The Roxboro plant is still in operation and it is rated at 2462 MW generation capacity. Let me digress with a short anecdote. Back in the time frame of about 1975 I was involved in an ASME meeting in Niagara Falls, NY. As part of the group, we were given a tour of the Niagara Falls Hydro plant on the U.S. side of the river downstream of the falls. I was struck at the time with the realization that all of the water feeding several of the Great Lakes provides (on the U.S. side) about the same generation capacity as the Roxboro Thermal Plant did. A real world lesson in “Energy Density”. Roxboro’s four units are rated 2,462 MW, the Robert Moses Hydroelectric plant 2,300 MW. This comparison is one I find helpful when non-energy trained people ask why are coal plants necessary? It helps to explain the enormous energy density of a coal fueled power plant.

Niagara Falls, Robert Moses Hydroelectric Plant, about five miles downstream of Niagara Falls, From NY Power Authority website

Fuel Diversity Helps Keep Costs Down, All Fuels Are Important

I joined Riley Stoker in 1969 and worked at Tampa Electric on the final acceptance work of the Gannon Station Units 5 & 6. Then on to the SCE&G Waterree plant for the startup of Riley’s first and only supercritical steam generator. Wateree is still running today and it was very successful. After startup of Wateree #1, I was sent to the City of Lakeland, Florida to finish the startup of the 80 MW oil and gas fueled Power Plant #3 (now named McIntosh) The unique and difficult design of this unit was that it was a stand alone, single unit with no steam connections to another unit. It was fueled by heavy oil, #6 or also known as Bunker C. The oil required heating to about 220 degrees F. to reduce the viscosity for satisfactory atomization and complete burning in the furnace. Because there was no gas or steam connections, the startup entailed firing on Diesel fuel until the boiler had at least 1000 psi drum pressure. Then the stored energy of the boiler would be used to heat and circulate oil from the Heavy oil supply tank. It sounds simple enough, however when the new controls and safety interlocks were all in startup mode, unproven and with numerous glitches, steam pressure would be lost and the operation on diesel fuel would need to be repeated. Any field engineer with experience in oil firing Utility boilers knows the importance of steam or compressed air cleaning of the Ljungstrom regenerative air heaters to prevent fires. That is the reason I was sent to Lakeland. The previous startup engineer was not careful about airheater cleaning and both airheaters were destroyed by fires. I was sent to replace that unfortunate startup engineer.

Oil firing was common in the 1970’s because it was competitive with coal at $0.50/million Btu. After Lakeland I was sent to lead the startup of Jacksonville Electric Authority’s Northside #2. A 325 MW heavy oil fueled boiler. Then off to CP&L Sutton #3, a 420 MW fueled at startup with heavy oil and with provisions for future coal fuel. America’s power demand was rapidly growing, especially in the south where air conditioning and heat pumps were taking off in popularity. As I recall peak load growth was about 10% per year. To illustrate the rapid growth in electric demand, here is my recollection of the units added at CP&L over a five year period:

  • Robinson #2, 700 MW, 1970 (Nuclear)
  • Asheville Unit #2, 200 MW, 1971 (coal)
  • Sutton Unit #3, 420 MW , 1972 (coal/oil)
  • Roxboro Unit #3, 720MW, 1973 (coal)
  • Brunswick Unit #1, 836 MW, 1975 (nuclear)

During this time period (1970-1977) CP&L was a regional Utility separate from Duke Energy. The total installed capacity of CP&L back during this time was about 6,000 MW. Therefore, the rapid system load growth is illustrated by the addition of five generating units totaling 2,876 MW in generation capacity in just five years. It was a great time to be involved in the power industry… And then came the Oil Embargo and some difficult times for the industry.

City of Lakeland, Power Plant #3, Now there are three Units, including a 360 MW coal unit #3. Picture by Dick Storm about 1971

During 1973 the U.S. government supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab nations.

At the time of the first oil embargo, 1973-1974, the EPA had been creating needed air pollution rules to reduce emissions from coal fueled power plants. Amongst the first pollutants to be addressed, was particulates. Before the Oil Embargo coal cost and oil cost per million Btus was about the same, right at $0.50 per million Btu. Therefore to reduce emissions fast, Utilities had an economic choice of converting coal plants to oil fuel which has nearly zero ash content or install millions of dollars of backend equipment, including electrostatic precipitators. Carolina Power and Light Company took the path of installing electrostatic precipitators on the newest units (Asheville #2, Sutton #3 and Roxboro #3) and converting the older, smaller coal units to being fueled by oil. Many utilities to the north, including VEPCO, PEPCO, Philadelphia Electric and others, chose the fuel oil conversion route to reduce particulates with less capital cost than installing electrostatic precipitators. This could be done with much lower costs to the consumer because the coal and heavy oil costs were about the same on the fuel cost/million BTU. About $0.50/mmb. Fuel cost is the largest single component of electricity production cost. Comprising between 75 and 92% of the production cost. Thus, when fuel costs escalate, so does the electricity production cost increase.

The Oil Embargo made an immediate fuel supply shortage for all petroleum products and including residual #6 heavy fuel oil. This is when, in my recollections, that major “Wheeling of Power” across state lines became common. The Utilities in the states to the north of CP&L were; VEPCO, PEPCO, Delmarva and Philadelphia Electric. They could receive coal generated electricity from Duke Power, CP&L and other southern Utilities across state lines using existing Transmission interconnections by wheeling power. This was before RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) were created.

The 1973-1980 time frame was difficult for Utilities and some had to cut once reliable dividends to stockholders and some went Bankrupt (Consolidated Edison in NY had a particularly difficult time) due to the volatile fuel costs.

National Energy Act of 1978

The energy shock of the oil embargo prompted Congress and the President to act on energy policy. Also during this time the Alaska Pipeline was approved and built(15). Jimmy Carter signed the first Energy Act in 1978.

America’s electricity supply has remained reliable and of reasonable cost for all of my lifetime. Below is a chart of world electricity prices in 2009 which shows the comparison of U.S. electricity prices to other industrialized countries of the world.

Shown on the chart of electricity costs above is Denmark and the Netherlands which were two of the first countries to implement wind farms for significant portions of their power generation.

America up to about 2012 used coal fuel for over 50% of our electricity production. Reasonable cost, reliable, abundant and dispatchable coal, generation powered the largest economy in the world. Reasonable cost electricity and GDP tend to parallel each other as shown on the graph below.

Coal Plant Efficiency Rankings

Up until the war on coal, coal plant designers, operators and maintenance personnel took pride in striving for the best overall efficiency. The best yearly coal plant efficiencies were typically from well run supercritical steam pressure units. Duke Power, PEPCO and AEP typically held the top positions. Duke Power’s Marshall and Belews Creek had repeatedly good years. Here is a typical ranking from 2013, Power Engineering Magazine:

I personally remember many meetings with Utility engineering management where the topic of discussion was modifications to the boilers and fuel burning equipment so that fuel changes could be made to reduce the production costs of power and at the same time, reduce emissions. One fuel change that was popular in the 1990’s was to convert coal plants designed for eastern Bituminous coal to fire western Powder River Basin fuel. This reduced emissions of NOx and kept production cost of power reasonable.

The Shale Gas Revolution

The combination of Hydraulic fracturing and Directional Drilling created an enormously large boost in U.S. natural gas production beginning about 2012. Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub dropped from a high of over $12.00/million BTU to about $2.00/million BTU in 2012. This abundance of natural gas fuel at this price, was competitive with well run, efficient coal plants. Then, the E.P.A. ramped up restrictions on coal plant emissions but the consumer was insulated from electricity price hikes because many natural gas CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) plants were being built and fuel diversity allowed the Utilities to switch generation from coal plants to new, highly efficient CCGT generating units.

The vastly increased supply of natural gas drove the price of gas down to below the cost of coal on a unit heating value basis. Gas dropped to below $2.00 per million Btu. Also during this time period, gas turbine-combined cycle plant efficiencies increased to the range of 60%. Power generation efficiencies over the years is shown on the graph below. The combination of low cost natural gas and enormous efficiency advantage of CCGT plants greatly increased the use of natural gas fuel for power generation. Keep in mind, the advantage of natural gas fuel is only an advantage when there are pipelines to provide the fuel and there is an abundant natural gas supply. This does not work well in all states, such as Massachusetts and Hawaii.

The combinations of low fuel cost, low Capital cost, low environmental emissions controls cost and greatly increased efficiency together made natural gas fuel more economically attractive than coal for new generating plants. The fuel of choice became natural gas for Utilities that had pipelines and sources of natural gas fuel. Coal fuel accounted for 50% of electricity generation in 2004 but was reduced to 23% by the increased use of more economical natural gas by 2019.

Duke Energy, Buck Station CCGT Plant

America is Blessed with Enormous Energy and Mineral Resources

America has plenty of Coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear fuels to power our economy and our life styles. I have written other blog posts on the relationship of energy and economic prosperity. Specifically, our lifestyles and our industrial production requires on average, about 315 +/- 15 million Btus of energy each year per person This equates to about 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy per year for our country. This level of energy requirement has held steady for about twenty five years. More on the need for 100 Quads of energy/year are here, here, here and here (20, 21, 22, 23) . Up until the manufactured climate hoax and war on carbon, America enjoyed reasonable cost, reliable electricity and also gasoline, Diesel and Jet Fuel supplies. America became energy independent in 2020.

Energy Growth and Clean Air Too!

Protection of the environment is important to all of us, including me. In fact, much of my career was invested in improving efficiency and reducing emissions of coal generating plants. There has been steady progress in cleaning the air and water of the U.S. and I would be remiss if I did not show that during the preceding eight decades in spite of population growth, increases in the number of miles driven and the growth of the economy, the real pollutants have been drastically reduced from the levels of the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s. The chart below was prepared by the EPA.

Two of the Last Clean Coal Plants Built in America

Coal plants are robust, reliable and when properly maintained can run safely and reliably for over fifty years. Several of the plants that I have personal experience with were mentioned above. However, newer designs with greater efficiency and improved emission controls should be built to replace the aging plants. In 2008 there were plans for dozens of new, clean coal plants to be built. Two magnificent examples are the John Turk Plant and the (then called Cliffside) #6 Unit at Rogers Energy Center in S.C.

Duke’s Rogers Energy Center Unit #6 Startup 2013
AEP-John Turk Plant, Arkansas

Example of Many New Coal & Nuclear Plants, Planned and Should Have Been Built 2012-2022

Santee-Cooper Pee Dee Plant, Planned to Be Built near Florence, SC

The Pee Dee Energy Center is one example of dozens of new, clean, efficient coal plants that were planned but cancelled due to political pressure of the environmental activists. I predict that these plants will be sorely missed during the winter peak power generation periods in December 2023 and January 2024. So will the Summer Nuclear Units #2 & 3 be missed.

Slide of Summer 2 & 3 and Vogtle Plant Construction from Dick Storm USCB-OLLI Course

Summary

My contribution to the progress made in the last 80 years was very modest and I will quickly admit that. However, because I worked with many talented and visionary engineers and in hundreds of generating plants around the world, I had a very good position to observe the progress of the giants in our industry. Engineers with a Vision of abundant, clean and reasonable cost electricity generation. To mention a few of these giants: Admiral Hyman Rickover, Bill Lee of Duke Power, Mendall Long of CP&L, Bill McCall of Santee-Cooper and many more fine engineers like them. What were their goals? To improve the quality of life, security, safety, economic growth, ensure that reasonable cost power could be produced for decades into the future, provide Bulk Power at the lowest possible cost to attract industry, increase industrial output, provide good paying jobs in their service territory, and design power plants that provide environmental protection for all of the citizens.

During the last 80 years nuclear power became a reality and today about 19% of our electricity is generated from clean, carbon free nuclear power plants. Many are now over fifty years old, but still reliable and inexpensive producers of vital electricity.

Natural gas generation has progressed from the first simple cycle unit built by G-E in 1949 at about 25% efficiency to today’s combined cycle gas turbine plants that at optimum load points can operate at over 60% thermal efficiency. They are amongst the most efficient machines ever built, of any kind.

Ultra-supercritical, clean coal plants such as Turk and Rogers #6 have been developed to provide reliable, reasonable cost, clean and importantly, Dispatchable power generation. There should have been built more like these Why? Because fuel diversity is important when one fuel becomes short in supply. For example, the 1973-74 Oil Embargo. Today most of the Dispatchable electricity generation is from natural gas which of course, flows through pipelines. Pipelines are reliable but, fuel storage is not practical. Coal plants, on the other hand, can store several months fuel supply on site.

Fuel Diversity is important for electricity generation reliability. I am proud to have worked during these years to do my best to make a small contribution to the great progress that was accomplished.

Part 2 will describe the self induced end of reliability, affordability and dispatch ability of electricity generation. As Dr. Euan Mearns recently wrote in “Watts Up With That”….The “Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”(19)

It is my best hope that America and our politicians will wake up and understand the importance of primary energy from conventional sources.

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, October 4, 2023

References

  1. You Tube video of a “Living Better Electrically” ad hosted by Ronald Reagan, who was with the G-E Theater on Sunday nights for 8 years 1953-1962: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Lz1C53RwI
  2. NY Power Authority Facts on Robert Moses Hydroelectric Plant at Niagara Falls: https://www.niagarafallsinfo.com/niagara-falls-history/niagara-falls-power-development/the-history-of-power-development-in-niagara/robert-moses-generating-station/
  3. Duke Energy Roxboro Plant Info: https://www.duke-energy.com/our-company/about-us/power-plants/roxboro-plant
  4. Duke Power Belews Creek Plant Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belews_Creek_Power_Station
  5. 1973-1974 Oil Embargo History, Arab-Israel War: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo
  6. 1973 Oil Embargo by Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74
  7. Duke Power References of Oconee & Marshall Steam Plant Annual Report 1967: https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1526/ML15261A046.pdf
  8. Power Magazine Feature article on the Top Plant, Duke’s Cliffside #6 which started up in 2013. The last new coal plant I can remember being commissioned for commercial service in the U.S. : https://www.powermag.com/cliffside-steam-station-unit-6-cliffside-north-carolina/
  9. Scientific American, March 2023, “Seven Ways Jimmy Carter Improved U.S. Energy Future, or At Least Tried to” : https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/7-ways-jimmy-carter-has-improved-americas-energy-future-or-tried-to/
  10. Power Magazine article on High Efficiency Gas Turbine Developments, 2018: https://www.powermag.com/efficiency-improvements-mark-advances-in-gas-turbines/
  11. POWER Magazine article on the History of Gas Turbines for Electricity generation: https://www.powermag.com/a-brief-history-of-ge-gas-turbines-2/
  12. Politico, 2015 article “Inside the War on Coal”: https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/05/inside-war-on-coal-000002/
  13. Obama’s War on Coal 2008 article in Townhall: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/conncarroll/2014/04/01/obamas-war-on-coal-n1817140
  14. Explanation of Directional Drilling for Hydraulic Fracturing and production of Shale Gas, Drillers.com: https://drillers.com/directional-drilling-everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know/
  15. National Energy Act of 1978, Energy Policy Act and PURPA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Act
  16. History of the Alaska Pipeline by the American Oil & Gas History Society: https://aoghs.org/transportation/trans-alaska-pipeline/#:~:text=Oil%20was%20first%20discovered%20in,renewed%20in%20November%20of%202002.
  17. New York Times, May 10, 1974, Con-Edison Declares it may go Bankrupt without help, due to Oil Embargo fuel cost escalations: https://www.nytimes.com/1974/05/10/archives/con-edison-says-it-faces-bankruptcy-without-help-con-ed-says-it-is.html
  18. Congressional Report on Financial Condition of Utilities, 1970-1986: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/99th-congress-1985-1986/reports/doc10b-entire_1.pdf
  19. WUWT, Oct. 3, 2023, “Energy Transition is Social Vandalism” :https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/03/the-energy-transition-is-social-vandalism/
  20. America Needs about 100 Quadrillion Btus of PRIMARY energy each year: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/16/back-to-basics-the-u-s-needs-100-quadrillion-btus-year-of-primary-energy/
  21. Energy=Life as We Know and Enjoy it: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/08/22/energy-life-that-is-life-as-we-enjoy-it/  
  22. Energizing the Public to Understand the Importance of Primary Energy: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/03/20/educating-and-energizing-the-public-on-energy-policy-and-the-impossibility-of-powering-america-with-wind-and-solar/
  23. Energy and Economic Prosperity: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/11/18/energy-and-economic-prosperity-2/
  24. Wake Up America:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/21/please-wake-up-america-your-energy-and-electricity-generation-reliability-are-at-risk/
  25. Dick Storm ENERUM, August 2022 presentation:  https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_presentation-and-speakers-notes-from-august-activity-7068650158862827520-B-_W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktophttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7056884647858765824?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7056884647858765824%29
Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Energy, Electricity, Economic Prosperity and Environmental Protection

Keeping America Energized, Maybe 45Q will Help?

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Recently I was interviewed by Peter Perri for his Podcast on “Energy Media”. We talked for about an hour and I expressed my opinion on America’s dismal… “Lack of a Rational Energy Transition Policy”. It is just a Decarbonization Policy without provisions for providing power generation until technology and build out of new nuclear catches up. However, Mr. Perri got me thinking and he offered some information regarding the IRA Act 45Q, Provisions for Tax Credits for coal plants that capture and store carbon dioxide (CCUS). That was new to me. I consider myself well read on energy news, but I sure missed 45Q. The CO2 credit is up to $85/ton of carbon dioxide captured and sequestered or utilized. Not that I agree with the legislation or the practicality of CCUS, but it shows some sanity of the policymakers, that they understand America may get around to using its vast, God given Treasure of coal.

Energy=Life as we know it and it takes about 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary Energy to fuel our economy and our way of life. As a review of previous posts I have made, here is a summary of approx. how the U.S. uses about 100 Quads/year of Primary Energy. Many folks (those who are not technically trained) do not appreciate or understand the concepts of Primary and Secondary energy. An example is a video on hydrogen that I recently watched discussed hydrogen as a form of primary energy. Hydrogen is secondary energy and does not exist naturally in nature, it must be produced from primary energy.

  • 37% Electricity Generation
  • 27% Transportation
    • 26% Industrial Production
    • 10% Commercial and Residential

My point is it takes about 100 Quadrillion Btus to energize and make it possible for us to sustain our high quality of life, including keeping warm in the winter. Right here within our borders is the richest source of primary energy on earth. America’s Treasure of Coal. Why not use it to keep America Prosperous & Energy Independent? By the way, America and Canada have plenty of Uranium deposits in North America and few of the U.S. deposits are being used, but that is a topic for another day.

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sankey Diagram (below) shows the energy flows for 2021. Total energy use that year was only 97.3 Quadrillion Btus because of a slower economy. In 2019 energy use was over 100 Quads.

The “Leftists” and power hungry government Bureaucrats have done an effective job of Demonizing carbon dioxide. Their Rationale; By demonizing carbon, then we won’t use it. The demonization of carbon restricts use of a valuable natural resource. This combined with the fact that we now enjoy a high standard of living which coal continues to provide a significant part of our energy when it is needed makes one wonder; “What are the Policymakers thinking?” Coal is one of the most readily available, usable & affordable forms of energy that America is Blessed with. It is my prediction that coal will be more appreciated after a cold winter of 2013, including some Blackouts. With winter approaching and expected scarce reserves of electricity generation capacity, coal plants may achieve new acceptance by society. They did in Germany. My November 25th Blog post discussed coal as America’s Treasure. Let me start with a bullet list of the facts and statements, as I understand them. These points are the premise for my suggestion that coal fuel will (and should!) look good again. So will all conventional fuels, including coal, oil, gas and nuclear. Kindly take a glance at the LLNL chart above, note that less than 5% of America’s Primary Energy was provided by wind and solar in 2021. This after decades of tax incentives. It is unreasonable to expect that we can “Electrify Everything” and power “Everything” with electricity generated from wind and solar.

Energy Realism Facts

  • Everyone, including me desires clean air, clean water and a healthy environment
  • Sustainable Life, as we enjoy it, requires a lot of energy about 860,000-1,000,000 Btus of per capita energy each day
  • America uses and depends on about 100 Quadrillion Btus of primary energy each year.
  • Fossil Fuels provide about 79%-80% of the primary energy America depends on
  • Wind and Solar provided less than 5% of America’s total Primary Energy in 2021
  • New HELE Coal plants can provide reliable, Dispatchable and affordable electricity. HELE = High Efficiency Low Emissions. Replacing many of the retired coal plants with new HELE plants should be part of the transition to our reduced carbon future.
  • According to the “Coalition for a Prosperous America” America’s Domestic Market Share of “Made in U.S.A.” products has declined from 77% in 2002 to below 67% in 2022
  • Reshoring of American Manufacturing to recover lost Market share will require more use of Energy for reshoring of Industrial production. Opposite of German recent experience of lost Industry due to energy shortfalls
  • Currently in the U.S. , the largest carbon-free electricity generation is from nuclear power plants. Most over 40 years old.
  • Electricity generation uses about 37% of the U.S. Primary Energy
  • Transportation uses about 27% of the U.S. Primary Energy
  • The major forms of Energy within the U.S. Borders that can provide the equivalent of 100-150 Quadrillion Btu’s of energy supply for U.S. Energy Independence are: Uranium, Coal, Oil and Natural Gas.

Coal Power Potential to Provide 20+ Quadrillion Btus of Primary Energy

The total Primary Energy Flow chart shown below is from 2009. Back then, coal was the primary fuel for about 50% of America’s electricity generation. The U.S. used right at a Billion tons of coal/year and America’s Total Primary Energy Use was 102.75 Quadrillion Btus. The technology and Infrastructure remains to return to this coal generation capacity and to do it cleanly. We should be building new HELE Coal plants with future provisions for CCUS. This would be a Rational Energy Plan to embark on, (a transition plan) until new nuclear, hydrogen, storage and renewables technologies can advance to meet energy needs.

Reasonable Cost, Abundant Power and Clean Air Too!

The EPA has prepared a graphic below, this illustration shows the Results of cleaning the air in the U.S. Between 1970 and 2019, the combined emissions of the six common pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10, SO2, NOx, VOCs, CO and Pb) dropped by 77 percent. This progress occurred while the U.S. economy continued to grow, Americans drove more miles and population and energy use increased. The point is, the six public health related & objectional pollutants have been corrected. Further restrictions, rules and Regulations on coal power plants since 2019 are not for cleaning the air, they are for politically biased reasons.

Summary

Since 2010 over 102,000 MW’s of reliable, reasonable production cost, Dispatchable coal and nuclear plants have been shut down. Worse yet, another 14.9 MW’s of the remaining 200 GW coal plants are planned to be shut down in the next few years. The “War on Carbon” although misguided and anti-American, has been very effective. It is not possible to replace the approximatley 117,000 MW’s of Dispatchable, reasonable production cost coal and nuclear plants with wind and solar. For folks that do not work in the electric generating field, let me digress and compare what 117 GW of reliable power generation looks like. Almost everyone has visited Niagara Falls and are aware that most of the water runoff from all of the Great Lakes drains through the Niagara River and through the Robert Moses Hydroelectric Generating Station. The American share of that water flow generates about 2,500 MW’s of electricity. Therefore replacing the 117,000 MW’s of coal and nuclear plants shut down since 2010 would require almost 50 generating plants the size of Niagara Falls.

Replacing existing or recently shut down coal plants with carbon-free nuclear is technically possible. However, the supply chain for new nuclear plant design, permitting, construction and talent development will take years, maybe decades. I submit that for the near term of the next ten-twenty years, a Rational Energy Policy would be to build technically proven HELE coal plants. Yes, planning for CCUS and using the IRA 45Q provision may help? I know what will not. That is… Continuing the Mythical Net-Zero Carbon path of depence on wind and solar. All this will do is weaken America. America’s Treasure of Coal may be tapped, thanks to the provisions in the so called, Inflation Reduction Act, 45Q provision for CCUS.

Dick Storm, December 20, 2022

References for further reading and research:

  1. 14.9 GW of Coal Generating Capacity to be shut down in 2022, WUWT January 2022, David Middleton: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/12/us-to-shutter-14-9-gw-of-coal-fired-and-add-46-1-gw-of-utility-scale-solar-pv-in-2022/
  2. Nuclear Plant Shut Downs in the U.S. https://www.eia.gov/nuclear/reactors/shutdown/
  3. NERC 2022 State of Reliability Report, July 6, 2022: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/PA/Performance%20Analysis%20DL/NERC_SOR_2022.pdf
  4. The State of Carbon Capture and Storage, 2022: https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/State-of-the-Art-CCS-Technologies-2022.pdf
  5. WESCOM Podcast and links to Dick Storm presentations on their web site, Oct. 2022: https://linktr.ee/wescominc
  6. Donn Dears article on U.S. Energy Resources, July 2022: https://bit.ly/3J5OnTc
  7. Liberty Energy, “Bettering Human Lives Report” An excellent report that shows the relationship of energy to living a high quality of sustainable life: https://www.libertyenergy.com/betteringhumanlivesv2/
  8. Terry Etam article, “Attention Poor People, Step Away from Using Fossil Fuels, it is not for you, Stop Using it Anyway!” December 12, 2022, Excellent read with good references:  https://boereport-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/boereport.com/2022/12/12/column-attention-poor-people-step-away-from-the-fuel-its-not-for-you-and-stop-using-it-anyway-thank-you/amp/
  9. Donn Dears New Book, “Clean Energy Crisis” Available in January from Amazo, Here is an introduction: bit.ly/3HgryNU 
  10. Solar Superstars, WUWT April 2022, A review of how the “Energy Island” of Hawaii has changed with their version of Net-Zero Carbon, by David Middleton : https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/04/26/honolulu-hawaii-top-solar-superstar-in-the-usa/
  11. Hans Rosling TED Talk, “The Magic Washing Machine”: https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_the_magic_washing_machine
  12. Daily Signal article on Energy Policies and Consumer Energy bills:https://www.dailysignal.com/2022/12/01/a-hard-winter-looms-for-americans-energy-bills-and-wallets-blame-biden
  13. MSN article on the war on coal: /https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-the-war-on-fossil-fuels-is-causing-chaos/ar-AA14W2mb?cvid=4c345b4dc1084311a2da3833dc753e88
  14. NMA (National Mining Assoc) Website: https://mineralsmakelife.org/blog/
  15. Wind Turbines lasting half expected life, 12 years UK Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2254901/Wind-turbines-half-long-previously-thought-study-shows-signs-wearing-just-12-years.html
  16. Mountaineer CCUS Project, Business Case, AEP: https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/publications-reports-research/aep-mountaineer-ccs-business-case-report/
  17. Electricity Map of power production and CO2 in world: https://www.electricitymaps.com
  18. IEA Coal 2022 Report, Dec. 16, 2022: https://www.iea.org/news/the-world-s-coal-consumption-is-set-to-reach-a-new-high-in-2022-as-the-energy-crisis-shakes-markets
  19. World Report on Environment Dec. 11, 2022, by John Shanahan and others: https://issuu.com/johna.shanahan/docs/221029a_world_report_card_on_climate_energy_and_
  20. Chart of the Week, Majority Electricity Fuel, by State: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/chart-whats-the-top-source-of-electricity-in-your-state?amp%3Butm_medium=email&amp%3Butm_campaign=canary&_hsmi=238458171&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9ZKMG7ftPsfldZhrW5x6MtMJkzGjNxD4L-AXAo4Gd_mepiPb8KHeqRQ7rVU-RrodbYNhOJ8MQbriwy3qgoTARkx9fDM9JRGgQCMVuYjG6ofYWbI9o&utm_source=newsletter
  21. Forbes: We Have Plenty of Nuclear Fuel, 2017: : https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/05/04/we-have-plenty-of-uranium-in-north-america/?sh=367854ef67ce
  22. Uranium deposits within the U.S.A. USGS : https://www.usgs.gov/centers/central-energy-resources-science-center/science/uranium-mineral-systems
  23. CO2 Coalition, Excellent facts and information on the facts regarding carbon dioxide in the environment: https://co2coalition.org
Basic Energy Knowledge, Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Education, Energy and Electricity Fundamentals, Energy, Politics and Economic Prosperity, Fossil Fuels are Important, Keeping America Great, Regulations

American Energy Independence With a Rational Energy Policy is Needed Now!

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America and all Developed countries require Energy to power our lives and our economy. It is time (for the government, energy savvy citizens already know this) to face the facts and reality that nearly 90% of the energy America depends on, including for our Defense of National Security, is sourced from conventional fuels or sources of natural gas, nuclear, oil, coal and old hydropower generation. Wind and Solar cannot replace these forms of energy and the path to Net-Zero Carbon will weaken our country. A Rational Energy Transition is needed over the next few decades. As a reminder, the Sankey Diagram below shows the total primary energy flows by sources and flow for all of 2021 forms of energy . Note that less than 5% of the primary energy provided to the U.S. was from wind and solar.

The two key words are PRIMARY ENERGY! As a couple people have asked me on EV’s…..”You mean the electricity has to be generated somewhere else to charge an electric vehicle?”

Yes, over 89% of the PRIMARY ENERGY we use is from conventional sources of Petroleum, Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear and Hydroelectric and yes, electricity to charge an EV likely came from conventional sources.

I have met with numerous groups to discuss our energy future and every time I outline the current government path to Net-Zero Carbon the people I talk with are shocked that there is not a planned transition to reduced carbon emissions and sustaining a reliable, affordable energy supply. Why? I believe it is because those that are knowledgeable in all forms of primary energy production are a small minority. Similar for secondary energy production, such as for producing electricity and hydrogen. I estimate that the people who thoroughly understand energy production is less than 5% of American (and the world) citizens. Smooth talking non-energy savvy politicians, the United Nations, the Main Stream Media, World Economic Forum and Public Education have Hoodwinked the Public into Demonizing carbon and preaching and legislating Green Power incentives. These powerful innfluencers have forced wind and solar Green Energy Religion on Americans. It is not possible to switch all of America or the rest of the Free World to Renewable wind and solar energy. It is possible to have a smooth transition to increase carbon free nuclear power and nuclear power produced hydrogen over the next three decades, but not by 2030 or 2035 as is proclaimed by the Biden Administration. America has no energy policy, only a policy of demonizing carbon and forcing the citizens to depend on unreliable, intermittent wind and solar.

Energy Misinformation is World-Wide

My friend Vincent who lives in France has sent me dozens of informative documents on energy. One document he sent yesterday caught my attention. It is the opening introduction of Professor Samuel Furfari’s article published on the Friends of Science Blog of Calgary University. I will quote Professor Furfari as he captures what I believe to be true as well. Furfari is referring to Europe, but much of what he states is applicable all over the Free World:

“Energy is life. Without energy, we could not live. That is why our distant ancestors adopted, then invented ways to create fire. The use of energy is essential for life: animals and human beings eat because their bodies need energy. Moreover, energy is also the blood that runs through the veins of the economic system. In recent years, instead of seeing energy as a vital commodity, environmental activists have succeeded in reversing the logic by blaming energy for all the planet’s ills, to the point where energy is no longer spoken of in negative terms. Energy has become the symbol of pollution and climate catastrophe. A few days ago, at the end of a lecture, a student confessed to me that he had been shaken because I had shown, with data, that the quality of life measured by the UN HDI index and life expectancy at birth depended on per capita energy consumption. This correlation is also valid with CO2 emissions since 82% of the energy used in the world is fossil fuel. He had never thought about it. No one had ever told him that.” Furfari continues….

“Will the current crisis be enough to bring us back to the common sense of the absolute priority of having abundant and cheap energy, as the founders of the EU said in the past? This is not certain, as the population has been so indoctrinated with negative and even catastrophic messages. But if the current crisis was to last and worsen, climate policies could face fierce opposition from the population, since it is true that the population cannot do without abundant and cheap energy, as the current panic demonstrates. Thanks to the development of technology and our energy resources (North Sea hydrocarbons and nuclear energy), the EU was able to escape the oil crises of the 1970s. The energy terrorism that may develop in the near future will have much more far-reaching consequences, as the EU is now much more dependent on energy consumption than it was fifty years ago.”

The foregoing is from a European viewpoint. My opinion/commentary now continues:

We Cannot Electrify Everything!

It is not even possible to install enough wind turbines and solar collectors across the U.S. to “Electrify Everything”. Further, we cannot electricfy everything and still sustain our high quality of living. For such products/materials as fertilizer, ammonia, food production energy, plastics, cement manufacture and steel manufacture. So what would a Rational Energy Policy look like? Here is my shot at offering one:

A RATIONAL ENERGY PLAN

Here is what a Rational Energy Plan would look like:

  1. Maintain Existing Coal & Nuclear Plants as If they will Run for 20 more years….because… we will likely need them.
  2. Reduce Federal Regulations on Oil, Gas, Coal production and all hard rock Mining within the U.S.A.
  3. Reduce Regulations and build more Refinery Capacity
  4. Approve Keystone and other Pipelines for Construction
  5. Reduce Federal Regulations on Coal Plant Emissions to levels in effect in 2020 (except CO2 restrictions that were later vacated by SCOTUS)
  6. Build New HELE Coal Plants, Equipped with Provisions for Future CCUS     (HELE=High Efficiency Low Emissions)
  7. Continue R & D for Energy Storage and Hydrogen Production
  8. Increase Hydrogen Distribution Infrastructure
  9. Keep Options of Continuing Internal Combustion Engines Beyond 2035 for those citizens that prefer Internal Combustion Engines
  10. Expand Oil & Gas Infrastructure to meet next 30 year Demand
  11. Increase the pace for designing, NRC Approvals, manufacturing and construction of new Small Modular Nuclear Reactors to be built all across the U.S.A. to replace the 102,000 MW’s of reliable, Dispatchable electric power production capacity that has been shut down since 2010.

Summary and Conclusions

When America’s economy and our productive capacity are restored, it will be with the result of reduced Federal Regulations and increased Domestic Energy production. To sustain life as we know it, each American on average needs about one million BTUs of energy equivalence each day. This includes energy for electricity generation, transportation, Industrial production, National Defense, commercial and residential uses. Over 90% of that energy is sourced from conventional sources of natural gas, oil, coal and nuclear. These numbers are substantiated by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sankey Diagram I placed as the first illustration. Yes, it shows 95% of the primary energy America runs on is from conventional forms of energy. It is Energy Fiction to believe that the conventional forms we use and depend on now can be provided by wind and solar as the Biden Administration and Congress have advocated. (I suppose we could add to this list of indoctrinators: the United Nations, World Economic Forum, Environmental Extremist groups, the MSM, U.S. Public Education and Woke corporations)

If the Biden Administration and Congress do not create a Rational Energy Policy as I have outlined above, then America’s Infuence in the World and our Economy will go into an ever increasing decline. As outlined by Professor Samuel Furfari, the same is true for Europe. “Energy is Life, Without Energy we cannot live”.

The Developed World runs on energy and America has the natural resources to regain Energy Independence.

Dick Storm, October 12, 2022

Quote of the Week: 
“Wherever the real power in a Government lies, there is the danger of oppression.” —James Madison (1788)
Ken Haapala President of SEPP

References and Additional Reading materials:

  1. Energy is Life by Samuel Furfari, Oct 17, 2022: https://blog-friendsofscience-org.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/blog.friendsofscience.org/2022/10/17/energy-in-addition-to-the-security-challenge-now-the-safety-challenge/amp/
  2. The changing world of energy and the geopolitical challenges”. Samuele Furfari’s latest book is “The hydrogen illusion”.
  3. Europe’s Energy Crisis Was Created by Politics: https://mises.org/wire/europes-energy-crisis-was-created-political-intervention
  4. WSJ-Nord Stream Blasts Likely Sabotage, German Probe Finds, October 17, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-blasts-were-likely-result-of-sabotage-german-probe-finds-11666016047?mod=mhp
  5. WSJ-Winter’s Approach Raises Stakes in European Energy Crisis, Oct 16, 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/winters-approach-raises-stakes-in-european-energy-crisis-11665926245?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
  6. Alex Epstein substack, October 2022, How a Fake Climate Emergency Created a True Energy Crisis: https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/how-a-fake-climate-emergency-created?utm_source=email
  7. No, Melting Greenland Ice is Not About to Swamp Coastal Areas, H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute: : https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/no-melting-greenland-ice-is-not-about-to-swamp-coastal-areas
  8. Is Global Warming the Cause of Ian? The evidence says NO! Watts UpWith That: October 16, 2022: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/16/is-global-warming-responsible-for-hurricane-ian-the-evidence-says-no/ For references use this link.
  9. States to Ban Gas Cars Despite the Human and Environmental Cost, Epoch Times, September 26, 2022:   https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/states-to-ban-gas-powered-cars-despite-human-and-environmental-cost-of-electric-vehicles_4726635.html?utm_campaign=app-cc&utm_source=ref_share
  10. Sea Level Rise Jumpy After Last Ice Age, WUWT:
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/01/sea-level-rise-jumpy-after-last-ice-age/
  11. The Week that Was by the Science and Environmental Policy Project, Edited by Ken Haapala, President: http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm
  12. Net Zero=Pro China, Pro Russia, Science Matters, Ron Clutz, October 2022: https://rclutz.com/2022/10/13/net-zero-pro-china-pro-russia/#like-27736
  13. Net Zero Watch, October 2022: https://mailchi.mp/dca1b92c985c/us-banks-threaten-to-withdraw-from-net-zero-alliance-191791?e=9e46528ac6
  14. Liberty Energy, Bettering Human Lives Report August 2022: https://www.libertyenergy.com/betteringhumanlivesv2/
  15. Donn Dears Politics of Energy Part 1 (Largest energy reserves): https://bit.ly/3J5OnTc 
  16. Donn Dears, Politics of Energy Part 2 :  https://bit.ly/3QuEuRs
  17. Donn Dears Politics of Energy Part 3: 
  18. Donn Dears, Destroying Energy Security Part 1 (SEC and ESG reporting):  https://bit.ly/3C1a5Xd 
  19. Donn Dears, Destroying Energy Security Part 2: https://bit.ly/3JVGWyD
  20. Donn Dears, Destroying Energy Security, Part 3: https://bit.ly/3A8cvRl
  21.  Donn Dears, China’s Coal-Fired Plants Dominate:  http://bit.ly/3RL6PEJ
  22. Donn Dears, Europe’s Rendezvous with Destiny: https://bit.ly/3caBprb 
  23. Donn Dears, IPCC Report, Part 1: https://bit.ly/3Aeruea
  24. Donn Dears, IPCC Report, Part 2: https://bit.ly/3AqFm53 
  25. CO2 Coalition Facts: https://co2coalition.org/facts/
  26. Competitive Enterprise Institute, Cooler Heads Website: https://go.cei.org/webmail/287682/949316776/68e507be334cf34c7d54b4b2a348b50f1d373ec69c94d0d629001f91129chttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-global-crisis-of-climate-policy-europe-germany-energy-prices-bankruptcy-winter-subsidies-borrowing-green-nuclear-116626510701e7d

Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Energy, Electricity, Economic Prosperity and Environmental Protection, Energy, Politics and Economic Prosperity, Fossil Fuels are Important, Nuclear Power Generation

American Dream = 100 Quadrillion Btus 

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Introduction

The recent Supreme Court ruling which  trimmed the power of the EPA is important to provide for less government restrictions and for the freedom of future Americans to enjoy the “American Dream”. This post is based on the importance of energy to power our way of life. Each American uses about a million Btus of energy each day. Energy fuels our way of life. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has kept track of the total primary energy use of America for many years. Total primary energy use has held steady at about 100 quads (+/-10) per year for the last 23 years. Total Primary Energy includes all forms of energy. The Energy Flow Chart for 2021 is copied below:

Total Energy Flow Chart for the U.S. in 2021
LLNL TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY FLOW CHART 2021: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov

Total Primary Energy Supply 1999-2021 about 100 Quadrillion Btu’s

A fair question is, what does the Supreme Court ruling on the EPA’s right to regulate carbon have to do with living the American Dream? Here is my answer. If we accept that the U.S. requires 100 quadrillion Btus of energy to power our high quality of living, then how can we continue living our good lives if over 80% of the fuel we depend on is considered unavailable by the government? Yes, from the LLNL figure above, (in Quads) 35.1 Petroleum + 10.5 Coal +31.3 Natural Gas +8.13 nuclear power   = 85.03 quadrillion Btus which is 87.4 % of the 97.3 Quads of Total Primary Energy.

Thermal energy is important for every American. The 87.4% includes nuclear. Therefore, the total primary energy provided from conventional forms of energy is 87.4%.

The government, “Woke” Business leaders, celebrities and many in the media have pushed the fantasy of achieving American energy needs from 100% solar and wind by 2030 or 2050.  To attempt to be polite, thinking we can replace conventional forms of energy within a few years is being detached from reality and delusional. Let me explain why I believe this to be so by looking at the last 23 years of energy use to show where we came from in two decades and to then look into the future to see the next two decades:

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 1999

The 1999 Sankey diagram (above) shows total energy use in the U.S. of 96.6  quadrillion Btus. I stated above that America’s total primary energy has held pretty steady for decades. So, here is the factual data of energy flows from 1999. Over the years, the fuel sources have changed but the total primary energy required to power our lives and economy has remained fairly constant, right at 100 quadrillion Btus.  In 1999 coal was 23.3 quadrillion Btus and natural gas 19.29. The “Shale Gas Revolution” which began about 2010 created production of low cost natural gas which displaced much of the coal used for power generation. This fuel substitution of natural gas for coal was mostly for economic dispatch reasons of a more economical fuel for power generation. By the way, if you compare the natural gas prices/million Btus to coal today, coal looks far more reasonable in cost.

EIA Data and authors notes

Total Primary Energy is Needed for Electricity Generation Plus… Industry, Transportation, Commercial and Residential

The graph below was prepared by the EIA to illustrate the production and use of total energy in the U.S.A. from 1950 to 2020. This also supports the statement that America has used right at 100 Quadrillion Btus for the last 23 years. This includes all forms of energy and including coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind, Biomass, geothermal. As can be seen from the graph, energy independence was achieved in 2020. This was largely as the result of increased oil and natural gas production within the U.S.A.

Total primary energy production and consumption 1950-2020

The Fantasy of Wind and Solar Replacing Conventional Energy and Achieving Net-Zero Carbon by 2050

Fossil fuels plus nuclear energy provided over 87% of America’s total primary energy for the year 2021. This is a fact. (as shown on the first chart above from LLNL) It is also a fact that wind and solar together provided about 5% of our total primary energy. The question needs to be asked, Is it reasonable to expect solar and wind to replace the energy currently provided by petroleum, natural gas, coal and nuclear? I say NO it is not reasonable to expect solar and wind to replace coal, oil, gas and nuclear any time soon. Yes, wind and solar are being forced on America by the energy policies and incentives of government, but it is implausible to expect the total of 100 Quadrillion Btu’s equivalent of energy to come from wind and solar. In my opinion, impossible until there are major technological advancements.

Here are eleven reasons why Net-Zero Carbon is Not Practical within the next 28 years:

  • The land area of 100% renewables required is enormous. The energy density of solar and wind is far too low(1)
  • Electricity storage is not yet technologically advanced for commercial applications at Utility scale for long time periods
  • If all Internal Combustion Engines for ground transportation are electrified, then it exacerbates the first two points. It still takes about the same primary energy content to move vehicles no matter what fuel or energy source is used. Example, EV’s need charging to provide motive force
  • Solar and Wind are not Dispatchable. They provide maximum output as nature provides when the wind blows and the sun shines, not as Citizen electricity demand requires
  • About 8-10% of petroleum is refined into Jet Fuel. Hydrogen fueled aircraft may be safe & practical some day, but that someday is decades away.
  • Fertilizer and food production uses between 2 and 5% of total primary energy. This cannot be replaced with wind and solar
  • The Transmission and Distribution network of the electric Grid is not setup for solar and wind systems. It takes time to permit, design and construct T&D systems
  • Oil, coal and natural gas provide raw materials for textiles, rubber, plastics and many other products that the world depends on
  • Coking coal is required to produce the best quality steel from iron ore
  • Cement production requires fuel for production
  • Nuclear power is the largest provider of carbon free energy, yet there is only one new nuclear plant under construction in the U.S. The Georgia Power Plant Vogtle Units 2 &3

All Fuels are Important and a Balanced Energy Portfolio is Preferred

America has been depending on coal power for many years. Although not appreciated by the media and even some Utility Exec’s, coal remains important. I will cite three examples below: First the U.S. Grid Electric Generation by fuel type for the weeks of September 25 -October 2, 2021 and from June 10- 16, 2022. Note the Dispatchable power of over 80% in both cases, with coal providing a significant portion of the generation. Also shown below are screen shots of actual generation by fuel for both the MISO and PJM RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators)

From EIA U.S. Grid Monitor website
MISO Energy Generation by Fuel: https://www.misoenergy.org
PJM Interconnection: https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations

The four illustrations above show examples of the importance of coal fuel to electric power generation for the lower 48 states, for the Midcontenent Independent System Operator and for the PJM Interconnection. All four examples show significant generation by Dispatchable power: coal, gas and nuclear. These four charts could be considered “A Balanced Generation Portfolio” By balanced, I mean fuel diversity of nuclear, gas, coal and renewables. This is good, however, the current U.S. Path is to shutdown many of the coal plants that were participating in the above “examples. Take a look at the EIA report that states 12.6 GW of coal plants to retire by 2022. (4)

Also, the recent closures of Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan and the William Zimmer 1300 MW coal plant near Cincinnati.

Coal, The American Treasure of Energy

When I was active in the American Coal Council we had an interesting speaker from the National Coal Council, on the coal, oil and gas reserves within the borders of the U.S. The speaker (Robert Beck) presented a study of using captured CO2 to force oil still trapped beneath Ohio’s old oil fields. As I recall, the presentation summary was that any place that coal is found, so is oil and gas. Thus, if you look at a map of U.S. coal deposits, sure enough, gas and oil has also been produced. Getting back to the National Coal Council presentation, the statement was made that about 3 million barrels a day of oil could be recovered from the “Old abandoned” Ohio Oil fields of decades ago, by using enhanced oil recovery of pressurizing the oil deposits with CO2 captured from the many coal plants in Ohio.(5) Here below is an illustration of world coal reserves. It could be said, the U.S. likely has the largest fossil fuel reserves in the world. The statement made by a coal expert that I heard ten years ago seems true, “Wherever there is coal, so is there oil and gas”. Texas, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and North Dakota all have coal and all have had significant oil and gas production since Hydraulic Fracturing combined with directional drilling has been utilized.

Why should our politicians cripple our economy over the politically inspired (not Environmental protection driven) U.N. -IPCC, Paris agreement?(56,57,58,59) America can be Energy Independent. We were in 2020 and we can do it again!

From EIA and American Geosciences sources

Meanwhile in China

China is the world’s largest producer of aluminum and steel. They also are the largest manufacturing nation on the planet. This manufacturing might is powered mostly by coal power. China gets it and they are diligently working toward a “Balanced Generation Portfolio” of coal, nuclear, wind, solar and gas.(51, 52, 53) Russia is conveniently in an excellent geographic and economic position to supply coal, oil, nuclear and gas to China to power their industrial output.

BP Statistical Review
World Nuclear Association website(10)

China is a large country that is committed to increasing the size of their economy. Powering manufacturing requires large amounts of reliable, reasonable cost electricity generation. China has a truly “Balanced Portfolio of Generation Capacity”, including nuclear as shown above and also enormous amounts of renewable power from the Three Gorges Hydroelectric plant which is over 22 GW in capacity, as well as wind, solar and coal. I thought I should interject the energy facts regarding China’s Bulk Power Generation, because competing with them will require reasonable cost Bulk Power here. Especially for energy intensive manufacturing such as aluminum smelting and other primary metals production.

Conclusions from Excerpts of Vaclav Smil book, “Power Density” on the Use of Wind, Water and Solar to Generate most of Our Electricity

Vaclav Smil has written many books on Energy, Power and Electricity generation. His book “POWER DENSITY” for this discussion is particularly relevant. Copied below are excerpts from the final chapter of “POWER DENSITY”:

“What Would it Take”

“If you are willing to engage in unbounded science and engineering fiction, then acccording to Jacobson and Delucchi (2011), this is what it would take to supply the world with 100% renewable energy in 2030 by using electricity (generated by wind, water and solar PV installations) and electrolytic hydrogen for all purposes: 3.8 million 5-MW wind turbines, 49,000 300-MW central solar plants, 1.7 billion 3-kW rooftop PV installations, 5,350 100-MW geothermal plants, 270 new 1.3 GW hydro stations, 720,000 0.75-MW wave devices and 490,000 1-MW tidal turbines. All of that will require only about 0.4% of the world’s land for its footprint and 0.6% for spacing, and we are assured that the barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic as the energy cost in a new wind-water-solar world should be similar to that today” (The above is quoting from Jacobson and Delucchi)

Smil continues (from pg 244, Power Density)

“These assurances asides, the simplest reality check shows the fictional nature of these assumptions. In 2013 the worldwide capacity in wind turbines reached 330 GW, while 13 TW (40 times as much) would be needed by 2030. Total rooftop and large plant PV capacity reached about 100 GW, but 17.1 TW of these installations would be required (170 times as much); moreover, there was not a single 300-MW solar PV plant (five plants rated between 200-250 MW), whereas 40,000 would be needed by 2030. In 2013 there was only one central solar power facility rated at more than 300 MW, Ivanpah, at 392 MW, but nearly 5,000 such facilities would be needed by 2030 (an increase of four orders of magnitude). There were fewer than 50 geothermal stations rated at more than 100 MW, but 5,350 would be needed (a 100-fold increase). Pelamis (2014, the world’s most advanced wave energy company, produced six 0.75 MW devices by the beginning of 2014, but 720,000 would need to be operating by 2030 (an increase of five orders of magnitude). Finally, by 2013 there were fewer than ten small tidal stations with aggregate installed power of much less than 1 GW, while 490 GW would have to generate by 2030 (two orders of magnitude more).

Such ramping-up of all kinds of capacities-design, permitting, financing, engineering, construction, all going up between one and five orders of magnitude in less than two decades-is far, far beyond anything that has been witnessed in less than two decades-is far, far beyond anything that has been witnessed in more than a century of developing modern energy systems. And that still leaves out two other key facts, namely, that such a gargantuan renewable energy system would need an enormous expansion of high-voltage transmission and would require the creation of an entirely new, hydrogen-based society. I am still not sure how we would fly with hydrogen (or electricity) or smelt pig iron. In any case the chances of a 100% water-wind-solar world to be ready by 2030 are nil, but it is worth while exploring what it would (realistically) take to create an increasingly nonfossil global energy system.” The preceding “What Would it Take” is a direct quotation from Smil’s book, pages 243-245.

Summary & Conclusions:

In my opinion, Vaclav Smil in the preceding paragraphs captured the essence of the fictional engineering that can create a path to Net-Zero Carbon by 2050. In the references that follow, Donn Dears and others have come to similar conclusions on the futility of achieving Net-Zero Carbon.

With regard to Anthropogenic Climate Change, I have included some references from expert Climate and Atmospheric Scientists that know the topic well.(2,7,8,9,10,12,13,15,16,56,58,59)

Climate Policies and the UN-IPCC are driven by politics and not by science or a sincere interest in saving the planet. Some references which support this claim are also included for further reading.(56,58,59)

I will close with seven conclusions, which are:

  • The Economic Harm to the U.S. if the Path to Net-Zero Carbon with solar and wind and without nuclear power as a major component, will weaken the U.S.A. and harm our capability to compete in world markets. Especially competing with China and the rest of the world in manufacturing.(2, 3, 4, 7, 8 & 9)
  • Dispatchable Coal Plants should not be shut down until they are replaced by proven and commissioned “Dispatchable” generating capacity. Shutting down 12.6MW of coal plants as planned, will lead to Blackouts and Brownouts(4,22,25, 26, 27)
  • Depending on wind and solar to replace the existing 2022 still operational coal and nuclear plants will lead to increased electricity costs as well as reduced reliability(14, 36)
  • China is the world’s largest manufacturer and will remain ahead of the U.S. and gain further if the U.S. continues down the Net-Zero Carbon Path(17, 18, 19, 28)
  • America invented nuclear power (Rickover) for peaceful purposes and was the world leader in developing nuclear power for peaceful purposes. We have lost that lead and China and Russia are building more nuclear power plants in the world than the U.S. Most of our problems are unessessary Federal Regulations(11, 51,53,57)
  • Energy Independence plus reasonable cost, abundant and Dispatchable Electricity are pre-requisites for a strong economy and a strong National Defense. America should expand and increase our treasures of nuclear, coal, oil and gas forms of energy to reachieve Energy Independence.(5)
  • The U.S. should use all of the energy resources within our borders to be 100% Energy Independent. This includes the Treasure of Coal Energy which we know how to burn cleanly.(30, 31, 32)

Respectfully submitted,

Dick Storm, July 4th, 2022

References for Further Reading:

  1. Vaclav Smil Book, “POWER DENSITY” The MIT Press 2015
  2. Donn Dears Book, Net-Zero Carbon, The Climate Policy Destroying America” 2022
  3. Donn Dears website, numerous article on the foolishness of Zero Carbon policies, EV’s and Power Generation: https://ddears.com/donns-articles/
  4. EIA Report on 12.6 GW of Coal Plants to Close in 2022, January 2022: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50838
  5. National Coal Council, Carbon Collection and use for Enhanced Oil Recovery, 2012: http://www.nationalcoalcouncil.org/reports/07-10-12-NCC_Harnessing_Coals_Carbon_Content_to_Advance_Economy_Environment_EnergySecurity.pdf
  6. Capital Research Center, Nov. Dec. 2021 Issue article on the impossibility of replacing conventional energy with solar and wind: https://capitalresearch.org/app/uploads/Capital-Research-2021-8.pdf
  7. The Right Stuff Climate Team (Retired NASA Engineers): https://www.therightclimatestuff.com
  8. CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH CENTER REPORT, PRIMER ON ENERGY (GOOD REFERENCE WITH EXCELLENT FIGURES) https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46723
  9. Dr. Judith Curry, 15 slides to summarize Climate Change website: https://judithcurry.com/2021/09/03/15-minutes/#more-27827
  10. Science and Environment Policy Project  Website: http://www.sepp.org
  11. World Nuclear Association, Status of Nuclear Power in China: https://www.world-nuclear.org/country/default.aspx/China
  12. Global Warming Policy Foundation: https://www.thegwpf.org
  13. Mark Mills, The Myth of Renewable Energy: https://www.manhattan-institute.org/the-myth-of-the-great-energy-transition
  14. WSJ, Wind Stops in Europe: https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-prices-in-europe-hit-records-after-wind-stops-blowing-11631528258?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
  15. A key segment begins at minute 24 where the effects of CO2 are discussed by Professor Happer. https://bit.ly/3zsXcS6
  16. SKY NEWS SUN ACTIVITY AFFECTS EARTH TEMPERATURE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViY2J3LPgN4
  17. China buying Russian oil, gas and coal, Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asian-buyers-russian-oil-gas-coal-2022-02-22/
  18. China-Russian Energy Deal, February 2022: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-china-may-sign-energy-other-deals-amid-moscow-tension-with-west-2022-02-03/
  19. Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as World’s largest oil supplier, June 20, 2022 Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/china-buys-7-5-billion-of-russian-energy-with-oil-at-record
  20. Korea Times, China depends on Sanctioned Russian Fuel, June 20, 2022: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2022/06/501_331352.html
  21. Utility Dive, Capacity Auction Prices, June 25,2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-capacity-auction-nuclear-solar-coal-prices/625861/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-06-22%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:42604%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive
  22. Detroit News, Consumers Energy to End Coal Use in 2025: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2022/06/23/michigan-panel-approves-consumers-energy-plan-end-coal-use-2025/7716918001/
  23. Alliant and WEC Change Plans to Retire Coal to Meet Demand, June 22, 2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wisconsin-utilities-coal-retirement-miso-delay/626005/
  24. WSJ Report on Ameren Keeping Rush Island Operating to Satisfy Demand June 10, 2022:https://www.wsj.com/articles/old-coal-plant-neared-retirement-but-now-its-needed-to-keep-the-lights-on-11654858801?mod=djem_EnergyJournal
  25. WSJ May 8, 2022, Power Plants Struggling With Electricity Shortages to Keep Power on: https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=0&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s 
  26. WSJ June 18, 2022, West Risks Blackouts From Drought and loss of Hydroelectric Capacity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/west-risks-blackouts-as-hydroelectric-power-dries-up-11624008601?mod=article_inline  
  27. WSJ, Opinion, May 27, 2022, Jason Hayes, “Why Blackouts are Coming to Michigan” Regarding shutdown of Palisades Nuclear Generating Plant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-electricity-blackouts-are-coming-to-michigan-nuclear-power-plant-green-energy-renewable-climate-11653685521?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=5&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s
  28. The Guradian (UK) China’s Premier Calls For More Coal Plants, June 24, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/24/chinese-premier-calls-for-more-coal-production-as-electricity-demand-soars 
  29. Global Food Supply at Risk Due to High Energy Prices, The Guardian, June 25, 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/25/our-global-food-supply-is-at-risk-when-high-gas-prices-limit-the-creation-of-fertiliser
  30. US and World Coal Reserves Map: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Coal-reserves-volumes-by-countries-of-the-world-3_fig1_328037099
  31. EIA 2nd reference on World Coal Reserves, EIA 2011: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=2930
  32. American Geosciences institute, World Coal Reserves: https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/maps/interactive-map-coal-resources-united-states
  33. EIA Total Energy Use 1950-2020: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43515
  34. St. Louis Fed. Renewable Power Increases have reduced Conventional Power Generation Capacity Factors, thus weakening cash flow for O&M and improvements: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/10/renewables-have-increased-the-capacity-for-electricity-production/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
  35. Fact Check on Wind Power Cost: https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/does-wind-work-without-subsidies/
  36. Forbes, Michael Schellenberger article on True Cost of Wind Power: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/04/20/why-renewables-cause-blackouts-and-increase-vulnerability-to-extreme-weather/?sh=6400daf54e75 
  37. EPA Retains Tools to Harm Coal Power Production, Utility Dive, July 1, 2022: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/supreme-court-epa-GHG-carbon-power-plant/626456/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-07-01%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:42837%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive
  38. VOX, Electrify Everything! : https://www.vox.com/2016/9/19/12938086/electrify-everything
  39. Stanford, Mark Jacobson, Net Zero Carbon by 2050 : https://news.stanford.edu/2015/06/08/50states-renewable-energy-060815/
  40. Jacobson’s website: https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
  41. UN Net Zero Carbon website: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition  
  42.  Princeton University Net Zero Carbon Plan: Net Zero Carbon Project Princeton University Researchers, Jenkins et al: https://cmi.princeton.edu/annual-meetings/annual-reports/year-2019/the-net-zero-america-project-finding-pathways-to-a-carbon-neutral-future/
  43. Princeton University, additional presentations on reduced carbon emissions: https://cmi.princeton.edu/presentations/year-2022/
  44. Cornell Daily Sun, Speaker discusses Coal Plants in a Death Spiral: https://cornellsun.com/2016/10/03/keynote-speaker-investigates-recent-transformations-in-the-energy-grid/
  45. WSJ Australia Warning on Green Energy Risks:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-warning-from-australias-power-crisis-green-energy-anthony-albanese-11655659465?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=3&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s
  46. National News on Nuclear Power needed for the future carbon free generation January 23, 2022: https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2022/01/18/race-to-cut-carbon-emissions-splits-u-s-states-on-nuclear-b/#.Ye2BWS-B2J9
  47. Reuters, List of Coal Plants Scheduled to be shut down: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-coal-fired-power-plants-scheduled-shut-2021-10-28/
  48. S&P Global Natural Gas Use for Fertilizer production, surging natural gas prices, cause fertilizer costs to soar Jan 19, 2022: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/011922-fertilizer-costs-natural-gas-prices
  49. Michael Schellenberger article on German experience of “Green Power”: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/?sh=6da16be6ea2b
  50. NERC Long Term Reliability study: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2021.pdf
  51. MSNBC China and Russian Reactor Designs Dominate New Construction, Warns IEA Chief,  July 2022: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/russian-and-chinese-designs-in-87percent-of-new-nuclear-reactors-iea-chief.html
  52. Bloomberg, China’s Climate Goals Depend on 440 Billion Nuclear Power Plant Buildout: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s
  53. IEA Global Energy Outlook, April 2022: https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/global-energy-outlook-2022/
  54. IEA Publications Available: https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/
  55. Three Gorges Dam, 22.5 MW : https://www.britannica.com/topic/Three-Gorges-Dam
  56. Climate Sensitivity is Likely Low Enough to be of Little Concern: https://everythingclimate.wpcomstaging.com/emissions-climate-models/
  57. Nuclear Power Is Poised for a Comeback. (In U.S.) The Problem Is Building the Reactors, WSJ July 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nuclear-power-climate-change-russia-energy-11655995024?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1
  58. United Nations-IPCC Reports Are Not Science: http://sepp.org/twtwfiles/2022/TWTW%206-25-2022.pdf
  59. Donn Dears, IPCC Report, Part 1: https://bit.ly/3Aeruea
Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Fossil Fuels are Important

The Importance of Fossil Fuels and Why It Will Be Impossible to Eliminate them in My Grandchildren’s Lifetimes Without Harming Their Quality of Living and America’s Leadership in The World

3 Comments

Introduction

America, the rest of the Developed World and the Developing Countries of the World all depend on Fossil Fuels to power Industry, Quality of Life, Transportation and strong Economy’s. In fact more than 85% of the energy used today is used in “Heat-Engines”. Think about your life today and what you depend on. A car for transportation, air conditioning for summer comfort, Industrial production to provide jobs, economic strength and to continue to fuel our strong Economy, fuel for jet aircraft to shrink the world, Diesel fuel for trucks to deliver our food, Diesel fuel for shipping to transport products around the world. The largest slice of the energy production pie is provided by petroleum. Love them or hate them, the energy density of fossil fuels make them important to power our lives.

In America we use about 20 million barrels of oil each day. America has about 275 million cars and light trucks on the roads. This is peak vacation time in America, summer travel is brisk of people getting away to our favorite beach, mountain retreat or foreign destination. When we travel, we use energy. A lot of it. 

Some prominent Americans, the Main Stream Media, the President and elected officials in high office are promoting “Net Zero Carbon by 2050”.

In my opinion, this is wrong for America and impossible to achieve. I will attempt to simplify my reasoning of why fossil fuels are important and the fact that we cannot eliminate them in the next 30 years unless there are major new break-throughs in technology.

Where We Get Our Energy

Each year, America uses about 100 Quadrillion Btu’s of energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has kept track of our actual energy sources and consumption for decades. Each year a report is produced to show the previous years energy production and use. Since about the year 2006 America has used between 95 and 103 Quadrillion Btu’s each year. Here below are two charts which show the sources and uses for energy in the U.S.A. during 2020. Note that due to the Pandemic, energy use declined from 2019 to only about 98 Quadrillion Btu’s. This was due to reduced travel and economic production during 2020, because of Covid-19. Chart 1 below shows the sources of our energy and the consumption. Note that the optimistic Renewables in 2050 is about 17 Quadrillion Btu’s equivalent. The EIA converts energy from hydroelectric, solar and wind to equivalent energy in Btu’s. Each Btu is equivalent at 100% efficiency of conversion to 778 Foot Pounds of work. Thus, the BTU’s produced and used represent all forms of energy on the charts below.

Sources in 2050 of our energy. Forecast based on the EIA analyses.

  • 38 Quadrillion Btu’s Petroleum
  • 37 Quadrillion Btu’s Natural Gas
  • 17 Quadrillionn Btu’s Renewable Energy
  • 7   Quadrillion Btu’s Nuclear energy
  • 3   Quadrillion Btu’s Hydro-electric
  • 3   Quadrillion Btu’s Biofuels

Total 105 Quadrillion Btu’s projected to be utilized in 2050 (5)

In my opinion, that number is low because our population is growing and I suspect that in order to provide the same quality of life in 2050 as we enjoy now, with a population expected to grow to 390(6) million in 2050, will require more than 105 Quadrillion Btu’s if we continue our high quality of lives.

Let’s discuss Electric Vehicles. Today there are about 276 million cars and light trucks on the road (7). Most are fueled by gasoline or diesel fuel which is provided by over 100,000 conveniently located service stations for refueling. If these are switched to being powered by electric, then the electric power demand will be much larger than 37% of our total energy production. 

The electricity production chart below shows current and future trends for electricity production. If the auto manufacturers stop producing cars powered by internal combustion engines, then to preserve our current freedom to travel, the same total energy will be required for a given prosperous population. Thus, driving similar miles per year will require that electricity be produced in proportion to the fleet of EV’s. Study the chart below. In 2050 the projections are for 42% of our electricity to be generated from Renewables. The other 58% then is projected to be generated from traditional sources, natural gas, nuclear and coal. We should keep in mind that the population is expected to increase by about 18% by 2050.

Conclusion:

If we continue our high quality of living, then Fossil Fuels will be required through 2050. Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 will be difficult or impossible to achieve, in my opinion.

Richard F. Storm

July 31, 2021

References:

  1. Dick Storm’s ProBizBlog: https://dickstormprobizblog.wordpress.com/2020/08/28/the-importance-of-energy-part-2-our-energy-sources/
  2. https://dickstormprobizblog.wordpress.com/category/energy-electricity-economic-prosperity-and-environmental-protection/
  3. Donn Dears “Power for the USA” Blog:  https://ddears.com/2021/04/20/america-we-have-a-problem-the-green-nightmare-part-1-the-nuclear-problem/
  4. Mark Mills, Manhatten Institute, “The Green New Deal Can’t Break the Laws of Physics” : https://www.manhattan-institute.org/green-new-deal-laws-of-physics
  5. U.S. Department of Energy, EIA (Energy Information Administration) Annual Energy Outlook, 2021: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/
  6. U.S. Census Data of population projections into the future: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popproj/2017-summary-tables.html
  7. Number of cars and light trucks registered in the U.S.A. by Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/
  8. The German Experience with Renewables by Michael Schellenberger July 2021: https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/german-emissions-from-electricity-674?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjozNTA0MDMyMSwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzkzMjEwODMsIl8iOiJleWpPVSIsImlhdCI6MTYyNzcyNjM5NywiZXhwIjoxNjI3NzI5OTk3LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMjc5NDAwIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.e-R9JLkkOf0AoO-vTujt5twuRqVqIdPKOz-X9f0Fvko