The EPA Anti-American Endangerment Finding Endangers more than electricity supply for the Future! A prescient warning of the threat to western civilization was written by Vaclav Klaus about 20 years ago, in his book “Blue Planet in Green Shackles, What is Endangered, Climate or Freedom”. Klaus grew up behind the Iron Curtain and described the “Greens” as being worse than the Communists.
Coal as a source of primary energy for electric power generation has many unique advantages. Coal is an American Treasure that should be utilized.(1 to 14 below)
Amongst the many advantages of coal plants are two facts: (1) when they are maintained properly, they run in all weather conditions 24/7. As shown on the example below, 22% of America’s electricity was being generated during normal winter conditions by an aging coal fleet and (2) Coal fuel to provide the primary energy to generate steam for the turbine-generator can be stored on-site with weeks or even months of supply.
Modern clean coal plants are proven, robust, long lasting, Dispatchable, use a reasonable and stable cost fuel that is abundant and of high quality from within the U.S.A. An especially important advantage is that they have inherent on-site energy storage, unlike natural gas plants that are dependent on primary energy provided “just in time” from pipeline gas.
To be clear, I favor a Balanced Generation Portfolio that includes natural gas, coal, nuclear, Hydro and some renewables. However, for reliable electricity delivery, about 80% or more of nameplate generation capability should be Dispatchable 24/7.
Electric Power Generation, January 21, 2025 During a Polar Vortex
Electricity generation by fuel, at 9:00 PM this date was 22% Coal fuel. The largest fuel source was natural gas at about 45% followed by 15% nuclear, 8% wind and 5% Hydro. Total generation was 633,162 MW. This is better than what I would consider a “Balanced Generation Portfolio” with about 87% Dispatchable. This Balanced generation portfolio should continue with the building of new clean coal plants to replace the older coal plants that have been shut down.
America’s Future. Depends on Reliable, Affordable, Dispatchable and Secure Primary Energy. Coal should Continue to Provide at Least 20% of The Primary Energy Needed to Sustain Our Economy and High Quality of Life with a Balanced Generation Portfolio
The Path to Net Zero Carbon is finally changing. However, the “War on Coal” has established crushing (anti-American) EPA Rules and “Woke” Electric Utility management (also some state legislatures and RTO’s) plans to force shut down of the existing coal plants before 2050, many before 2030. In 2010 America had over 317,000 MW of coal power generation capacity. Today it is about half that with over 125,000 MWs of coal plant capacity shut down. Why? Largely because of the Obama administration’s extreme activist led EPA corrupted science to establish the 2009 “Endangerment Finding”. That was the culmination of many anti-coal regulations created by the EPA and other Federal agencies. I have written before on the background of EPA Influencers and the fact that the excessive attacks on first coal and then all hydrocarbons were not based on protecting human health or the environment. These Regulations were strictly political(4) and I might add, these regulations are sinister and anti-American. Read about EPA Influencers here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.
Since the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding, over 125,000 MW of coal plant capacity was not just shut down, most of those shut down have been demolished (6, 7, 10. 11, 12, 13)
The newest major utility scale (over 500 MW) coal plants were started up about 2013. That is a dozen years ago. Since then the Supply-Chain of design, manufacturing, maintenance, parts and field services has been sharply reduced. I know, because I was involved for 50+ years in the power generation equipment and services supply-chain. I have many friends and relatives either retired or still working in that important supply-chain. When referring to the importance of business flow to keep the supply-chain healthy and capable, I am reminded of the Three Mile Island accident in 1979. That pretty much killed or at least mortally wounded the nuclear steam system supply-chain in the U.S.A. Did you ever wonder why Plant Vogtle at Georgia Power took ten years and 35 Billion dollars to construct? The broken U.S. nuclear component supply chain is one reason in addition to excessive government regulations. Some safety regulations after TMI (the 1979 Three Mile Island incident) were justified, many not.
I cite the nuclear power supply chain as an example of what is happening right before our eyes with the coal power plant supply chain. There is time to save it. How?
Drastically overhaul the Federal government Regulations and especially, the 2009, Obama Era, EPA Endangerment Finding!
Here is what Mr. Ken Haapala, President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project has to say about the Endangerment Finding: The following are excerpts of TWTW article, much more in the original document:
Dr. William Happer quote: “The message I want you to understand, which practically no one really understands, is that doubling CO2 makes almost no difference. Doubling would replace the black curve by the red curve. On the basis of this, we are supposed to give up our liberties. We are supposed to give up the gasoline engines of our automobiles. … Do not let anyone convince you that that is a good bargain. It is a terrible bargain. The doubling actually does make a little difference. It decreases the radiation to space by about three watts per square meters. In comparison, the total radiation to space is about 300 watts per square meter. So, it is a one percent effect—it is actually a little less than that, because that is with no clouds. Clouds make everything even less threatening.” Haapala continues,
S”Probably the most disgraceful example of bureaucratic hubris this century is EPA’s finding that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor are pollutants. Both gases are essential for life on Earth. Without water vapor, nights would be too cold to support growing plant life. As Happer states above water vapor “keeps Earth’s surface temperature warmer than it would be (by about 20 or 30 degrees) [°C or about 35 to 55°F.]
The Endangerment Finding had no compelling physical evidence. It is based on projections from global climate models which overstate the actual warming of the atmosphere by two to three times. Further, the models are based upon surface-air temperature measurements, not on atmospheric temperature measurements. It is in the atmosphere that the greenhouse effect occurs. Further, as the CO2 Coalition advocates, carbon dioxide is essential for all complex life on Earth. As Happer discusses above, it is key for creating carbohydrates, sugars, which allows all plants to grow and are the food source for animal life as well.
As John Tyndall in England wrote in 1875 (quoted from Happer) water vapor is an:
“Aqueous vapor is a blanket, more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer night the aqueous vapor from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.”
In its hubris, the EPA ignores this and similar work to deliver the Endangerment Finding.
Fortunately, the Trump administration has already opened the Endangerment Finding to questioning. As Francis Menton, an attorney who was involved in appealing the Endangerment Finding writes:
“The first couple of days of the new Trump administration have seen the President sign a blizzard of Executive Orders. These provide more material than a humble solo blogger like me can ever comment on comprehensively. So, I’ll just have to start with one particular item that I am deeply familiar with: the EPA’s so-called Endangerment Finding of December 2009. I have seen differing counts of the number of Trump’s first-day EOs. ABC News here counts 42. One of the most consequential has the title “Unleashing American Energy.” There is a large amount of important material in this EO. In overall summary, it directs the reversal of all of the Biden administration efforts to restrict and suppress the production and development of America’s energy resources. But one provision, I would argue, is important above all the rest. That is Section 6(f), which directs a reconsideration of the so-called Endangerment Finding (EF) of December 2009. That provision of the EO reads as follows: (f) Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Administrator of the EPA, in collaboration with the heads of any other relevant agencies, shall submit joint recommendations to the Director of OMB on the legality and continuing applicability of the Administrator’s findings, “Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act,” Final Rule, 74 FR 66496 (December 15, 2009).
This provision is of overriding importance because, as long as the Endangerment Finding remains on the books, it gives a license to the courts, and to activist left-wing judges anywhere in the federal system, to enjoin and undo all the other de-regulatory efforts of this and other energy-related EOs. However, if the EF is rescinded with a well-reasoned and well-supported basis, then all the other energy-related initiatives will have a far clearer path to success.”
Menton gives a solid account of the background of the Endangerment Finding to which TWTW would add that SEPP was a party to the appeal in conjunction with CEI. It was based on limited knowledge shortly after the finding was announced. In addition to the damage that the Endangerment Finding would do, the eventual thrust of the appeal was our model vs. your model. This was turned down by the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. Menton was involved in a second appeal starting in 2017 that was turned down by the Supreme Court. Today, differences between the role of CO2 for human welfare, and the claim that CO2 is a pollutant are more glaring. They can be stated as our physical evidence vs. your speculation from models that are wrong.
Of course, huge, vested interests will object to the Trump administration using physical evidence to overturn the Endangerment Finding. According to an article in the Hill, “4 major climate, energy moves included in Trump’s Day 1 executive orders”, Michael Gerrard, the founder of Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law said:
“that if the administration is successful in overturning the endangerment finding, it would be ‘devastating’ because ‘it’s the basis for almost all of EPA’s actions on climate change.’”
We shall see what develops over the next 30 days or so.”
Coal use in the world has grown each year since the Industrial Revolution and in 2024 provided the fuel for more electricity generation than any other source. The EPA War on Coal is anti-American and is harming America’s productive capacity. Coal use and U.S. GDP parallel each other 1970-2010. Also, the lowest cost power was from states using mostly coal fuel for electricity generation. (17)
The U.S. Coal plant design, manufacturing supply-chain has been weakened by lack of business since the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding.
The non scientific, politically driven EPA Endangerment Finding of CO2 is in-fact, endangering U.S. productive capacity.
Reasonable cost, Reliable, Dispatchable electricity is the Life-Blood of a modern economy. Coal fuel should remain part of a Balanced generation portfolio.
America’s air has been cleaned of the six major pollutants that the EPA was launched to correct 1970-2009.(8)
Carbon Dioxide is NOT a Pollutant
The “War on Carbon” by the Leftist driven, anti-American Bureaucrats in the EPA is a “War on American Freedoms”, not only an electricity reliability issue.
Recommendations
Eliminate the EPA Rules placed on coal plants since 2009, including the Endangerment Finding.
Eliminate Weaponization of the EPA to pick winners and losers of energy production.
Downsize the EPA to only provide sufficient numbers of Bureaucrats to sustain the original mission of regulating the six major criteria pollutants that affect human health. Sulfur, lead, Oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, particulate matter and ozone.
Provide incentives for design and construction of new clean coal plants to replace the 125,000 MWs of coal plant capacity shut down since 2009.
Respectfully submitted and may God Bless and protect President Trump and the new EPA Head, Lee Zeldin and Elon Musk as they work to Drain the Washington, DC SWAMP. President Trump, Elon Musk, Lee Zeldin and all of Trump’s Cabinet have my full support!
Dick Storm, February 2, 2025 (updated March 30, 2025)
References and for further reading and research: (Note: I have added some additional links since this was first posted)
Much has been discussed and written on the self-sabotaging of production of the sources of the primary energy that civil society depends. This article was inspired by a discussion with my senior engineer friend, Michael who emigrated to America from Russia in 1977. Michael and I had a discussion on the Russian Revolution and his musings of “why did Russia self destruct in 1917”? Before the Bolshevik Revolution, the Russian economy was a top economy of the world, ahead of France’s. In 1913 it was number four after the U.S., Great Britain and Germany. Frankly, I did not know that until last week, but in checking, Michael is correct. This led to my pondering why are so many U.S. policies (especially energy policies) designed to destroy our country? Look at the decline of German industrial production as a result of their energy policies. Another sobering video of world history from the viewpoint of Economic Strength is prepared by Ray Dalio and is on You Tube. Who are the individuals or organizations behind these anti-American and truly, anti-western civilization policies? I will list some below.
What are some other examples of countries whose economies climbed and then fell? Here are four: China, India, Argentina and Venezuela. The causes of the rise and fall of various nations can be attributed to many factors, the causes of which can be debated. The purpose for this article is to highlight the facts of history that remind us that once great nations or empires fell from greatness largely due to internal politics and policies. Today, reasonable cost, reliable and abundant Primary Energy is in fact, a vital key to a countries greatness and power. Here is a chart of the rise and fall of nations by Visual Capitalist.
In This Modern World, Energy is the Economy
The Biden war on the sources of the Primary Energy (on which We Depend) is Self-Sabotaging Keeping America Great.
Previous articles posted on my blog discuss some of the villains of American Greatness. My #1 pick of the top villain is the Washington, DC SWAMP. This is the one catch-all group that is the source of most resistance to keeping America great. The SWAMP is a complicated group comprised of many organizations, (millions of) Bureaucrats, Biased Judiciary and legal system that conducts Lawfare, NGOs, RINO’s, foreign governments, finance and banking and the Democrat political party. Who Are Some of the Enemies of Keeping America Great?
The Thirteen Headed SWAMP Monster
In previous blog posts I have referred to the six headed swamp monster, later changed to nine headed and today with the addition of the U.S. Legal system, Lawfare, Banking, Wealthy Billionaires and foreign government influence, the Swamp Monster now has Thirteen Heads. Here they are:
The EPA (2, 6, 80, 83, 88 )
NGOs such as the Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, Environmental Defense Fund and many more (2, 6, 27, 28, 43, 47, 77, 81, 89, 93, 95, 96, 101, 102, 104,105,110,111 )
Main Stream Media (3, 11, 21, 40 )
Entertainment
United Nations (20, 61, 62,)
World Economic Forum (57,
U.S. Democrat Party (30, 44, 65, 67, 68, 82, 27, 29,)
Public education K-12 and Universities(3, 4, 5, 9)
The “Swamp Bureaucrats” in addition to the EPA, who are employed by Federal and state government agencies creating excessively restrictive regulations and rules
Banking and Finance. World Bank, IMF and top financial institutions (112)
Godspeed President Trump!
President Trump is the best person to meet these challenges. The resistance is well dug in and reversing the Biden policies will be a challenge. I am sending my best wishes to President Trump, for success in slaying the DC Swamp Monster and for his Team’s effort to Keep America Great!
Dick Storm, January 13th, 2025
References for further Reading and Research:
The list below provides published news regarding the basis for my selection of the dozen entities listed above and now referred to as the “Twelve Headed Swamp Monster”
EPA and Environmental Extremists have a Revolving Door Employment Policy. Activists are employed in NGOs in waiting for a Democrat Presidential administrations to come into power and all the while exchange information with EPA 114th Congress, Majority Staff Report, Obama’s Carbon Mandate, August 2015. http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
Competitive Enterprise Institute, 2019 article and references of; “50 Years of Failed Predictions of Environmental Activists”https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions/
Book: “Merchants of Despair” by Robert Zubrin, on Radical Environmentalists, CriminalPseudo-Scientists and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism: Published 2012 by Encounter Books and again in 2016 by the Heartland Institute
Government Accountability Office Report on Environmental Protection Agency–Application of Publicity or Propaganda and Anti-Lobbying Provisions EPA Lobbying, 2015: https://www.gao.gov/products/b-326944
Government Accountability Office Report on Environmental Protection Agency–Application of Publicity or Propaganda and Anti-Lobbying Provisions EPA Lobbying, 2015: https://www.gao.gov/products/b-326944
Excellent Presentation on Climate and Energy for the General Public : https://rumble.com/v2l3sqy-climate-and-energy.html You Tube Presentation on the Influence of the Sun on Earth’s Climate, also at 3 minutes 10 seconds into the video, the recent excellent paper on Net Zero Carbon by William Happer, Richard Lindzen and W. A. van Wijngaarden is discussed, (link below) June 12, 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfhbEDuZXDs
he Changing World Order, You Tube video by Ray Dalio, April 2025. A chilling reminder of world history from an economic strength viewpoint. Well done, worth the 45 minute watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
Natural Gas, Petroleum and Coal. Coal is much more important than most Americans would think, thanks to the Popular, but wrong Demonization of carbon and especially, coal
These three sources of primary energy provide over 80% of the energy America (and every other Developed country) uses to power our lives. Including electricity generation, transportation, industrial production, heating, cooling, cooking and recreation. Yes, over 80%. In fact, according to the E.I.A. in 2023 it was 83%. A previous article is based on a 2011 presentation to the ASME on “America’s Treasure of Fossil Fuels”. The focus of the 2011 presentation was on coal fuel. In September 2024, I was one of five energy experts a panel at Liberty University’s CEO Summit. The title of our panel was, “Impacts of U.S. Self-Inflicted Electricity Crisis”. My notes are posted on LinkedIn.
The key word is “PRIMARY” energy. Why is this important? It is important for the American public to understand that primary energy is needed to produce the energy that we need for everyday living, including electricity, transportation, cooking, heating, industrial production and more.
There is a difference between Primary energy and Secondary energy!
Examples of Secondary energy are; electricity, hydrogen, ammonia and batteries. These are all being discussed as important energy carriers but, the energy that they provide must first be provided by Primary Energy. Therefore, the point of this article is to emphasize the fact that most of the energy each of us citizens uses and depends on, comes from conventional forms of energy. Yes, and including old hydroelectric plants and nuclear it is over 90% of it.
Electricity is secondary energy. It must be generated from primary energy which can be nuclear, coal, natural gas, wind, waste heat from municipal waste furnaces, hydro-electric power, landfill gas, wood, Biomass, sunshine or other. The pie chart shown above shows 9% of total Primary Energy being provided by renewables. This includes; hydro-electric, biomass, wood fuel, landfill gas, sunshine, geothermal and wind. Let’s get back to the reality of the importance of Primary energy for electric power generation. Electricity is the Life-Blood of the American Economy and most of our electricity is produced from conventional sources of natural gas, nuclear, coal and old hydroelectric power plants.
Primary Energy Consumed for Electricity Generation is About a Third of the Total
The energy end uses are reported by the EIA as shown on the chart below: Electricity generation requires 34% of total primary energy with Transportation, Industrial, Residential and Commercial using the balance of the total 93.6 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary energy.
Coal may seem very small when compared as the provider of only 8% of the total primary energy, however, for electric power generation, that 8% is very important! Take electricity generation on December 6, 2024 as an example…
Primary Energy Fuels for Electricity Generation December 6th, 2024
The chart below is the total 48 state Grid electricity generation by fuel. This is available to anyone at the EIA website, here.
In case the print is too small to read, here is a summary of the primary energy used on Dec. 6, 2024 to generate electricity for the lower 48 state grid. By the way. December 6th was the beginning of cold weather this winter. Not a Polar Vortex, but it was winter temperatures across the 48 states. The official start of winter is Dec. 21st, therefore January 2025 could provide even lower temperatures and the consequently higher electricity Demand. Back to Dec. 6th:
Natural Gas 47%
Coal 20%
Nuclear 17%
Old Hydro-Electric Plants 6%
The total electricity generation at this moment was 547,453 MW. Of that total, wind, solar and solar battery storage were as follows:
Wind 9%
Solar 0.01%
The total electricity generated at this moment on December 6th was 90% conventional sources of Primary Energy when old hydroelectric dams and nuclear are included in the category of “conventional” and I think they should be because hydro has been part of the Grid since the beginning and most hydroelectric plants are over 50 years old, most operating nuclear plants over 40 years.
So, What Part Does Coal Play?
Coal is important now (here in U.S. too) around the world and in 2023 more coal was used than ever in history and in 2024 the world will likely use even more coal than 2023. Of course, over 50% of the coal burned in the entire world, is burned by one country, China. That is a topic for another day. Coal has a favorable Energy Density and it can be burned efficiently and cleanly. America is the Saudi-Arabia of coal and we have the largest known coal reserves of the highest quality coal in the world. A treasure of energy given as a gift from God. We should continue to use this valuable domestic energy. America will likely continue to require 100 Quadrillion BTUs of primary energy each year.
Coal can and should provide at least 10% of the total for a Balanced Energy Portfolio
Advantages of Coal Power
Views from an unapologetic supporter of using America’s Treasure of Coal. I am also a supporter of nuclear power for the future, but that will take time to rebuild the nuclear components Supply-Chain.
From a practical viewpoint providing the 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy America needs each year, should include coal fuel. Coal power has inherent advantages over gas. Natural gas currently provides about 40% of America’s primary energy for electricity generation and on Dec. 6th natural gas was 47%. Coal, in my opinion, should remain a larger provider of electric power generation fuel for a “Balanced Portfolio” of generation capacity.
Some of the Advantages of Coal Fuel: 1. Onsite energy storage for months is possible with a coal pile in a typical legacy U.S. coal power plant. Most Natural gas, although a clean and domestically produced fuel, is supplied “Just in Time” via pipelines. In severe weather or with nefarious actors within our borders, energy storage on site is important. Coal and nuclear are best for onsite energy storage. 2. Coal power plants have proven to be robust and reliable in all forms of weather 24/7. Providing they are properly maintained, as was done in the 1990’s. 3. Coal power is reasonable in cost and the fuel cost is less volatile than gas. 4. America has vast resources of coal reserves within our borders that will last until new nuclear and other technologies can be deployed. 5. National security is served well by an electricity generation portfolio that includes a significant portion of coal power generation capacity. 6. Coal power is especially important in the winter when domestic heating competes with power generation with limited pipeline capacity.
Coal fuel provides Dispatchable power when it is needed and needed the most! Coal energy is storable and when plants are properly maintained, Dispatchable when it is Demanded!
Much demonized coal ash is simply the same rock that is present in the environment.
The American Coal Ash Association used U.S. Geological Survey data to compare the levels of heavy metals in coal ash to the levels present in ordinary rocks and soil. The study showed the levels to be comparable — which shouldn’t surprise anyone because that’s what coal ash is: “the non-combustible mineral portion of coal.” It’s the dirt and rock that were mixed in with the coal. There’s nothing about burning it that causes more to appear. The study can be found here: https://acaa-usa.org/wp-content/uploads/free-publications/ACAA_CoalAshMaterialSafety_June2012.pdf Other scientific studies of note: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency conducted risk analysis of the use of various coal combustion products in concrete, wallboard, and agriculture and found them all to be safe: https://acaa-usa.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/ccr_bu_eval.pdf
There are lots more scientific reports, beneficial use case studies, and more on the publications tab of the ACAA: https://acaa-usa.org Here is a link to the American Coal Council Blog, “Count on Coal” In the latest edition NERC expresses their concerns of electricity concerns this winter. I have expressed my concerns as well in previous articles on this blog and in various presentations to public groups. I know proponents for coal power, like me are a minority, but the facts are what they are……It is time to Wake up the 97% of Americans who do not understand basic physics, energy and electric power generation. Perhaps Rolling Blackouts will wake people up? Better late than never? The U.S. policy makers could look at Germany as an example of misguided energy policies and the consequent De-Industrialization.
If Knowledgeable Energy Experts are For Carbon Based Fuels, Who Can Be Against Them?
The war on coal began in the 1990’s during the Clinton administration. Then it picked up steam during Obama and Biden administrations. The basis of the war on carbon is not protecting the environment, but government control of the people. Previous articles have listed some of the players in the “War on Coal”. Here are some of the past articles that I have written on this with many references at the end of each article. Respected scientists including: Dr. Richard Lindzen, Dr. Judith Curry, Dr. Roy Spencer, Dr, Willie Soon, Dr. John Clauser, Dr. William Happer and many others.
Here is a list of 73 References on the exposing of the fallacies or misguidance of the War on Carbon and some references on the collusion and conspiracy of the perpetrators of the War on Carbon:
You-Tube Presentation on the False claims of Climate Alarmists by Yong, “Caught Red-Handed: Dr Clauser vs Dr Stephens and Sabine Hossenfelder” | Independent Research : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoxLY7GdbLg
You Tube Presentation on the Influence of the Sun on Earth’s Climate, also at 3 minutes 10 seconds into the video, the recent excellent paper on Net Zero Carbon by William Happer, Richard Lindzen and W. A. van Wijngaarden is discussed, (link below) June 12, 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfhbEDuZXDs
Lars Schernikau’s Book and website: “Unpopular-Truth” provides excellent information on Primary Energy and the most plausible energy sources to power civilization: https://unpopular-truth.com
What about Nuclear? Shouldn’t it be Included in a Balanced Electricity Generation Portfolio?
We should continue using coal until a better source of primary energy is proven to be commercially available, such as nuclear. Nuclear is proven and over 12 states receive more than 30% of their electricity from (old) nuclear plants. The three leading states are Illinois, Pennsylvania and South Carolina. My state of SC leads in nuclear generation proportions at 56%. However, it should be pointed out, the great record of nuclear electricity production has been accomplished with a nuclear fleet with an average age of over 40 years. The new nuclear plant supply chain will take time to rebuild. It took about 40 years from the time President Eisenhower launched the “Atoms for Peace”initiative in 1953 until commercial nuclear plants in the U.S. were delivering about 20% of the electricity Demand. Most of the skilled craftsmen, engineering talent, manufacturing capacity that built the first generation light water reactors has been lost. Rebuilding the supply-chains, begins with Public Education to rebuild the craft skills and engineering talent that built the first generation nuclear power plants, most of which are still providing reliable power today, as mentioned above. This is as daunting as President Kennedy’s Leadership in motivating the U.S. to “Choose to go to the moon” in 1961. America has used right at 100 Quadrillion BTUs of primary energy for over 20 years. Coal should remain in the energy mix. Yes, we should adapt but we should not create energy euthanasia by sabotaging the existing energy Life-Blood of our country that took over 120 years to build.
Replacing Coal and Natural Gas with Wind and Solar is NOT Possible and NOT Practical.
As wind and solar are forced onto the Grid it has raised the costs of electricity and impaired reliability. After billions of dollars of investment the contribution of wind and solar is almost insignificant and causes more harm than good. Worse yet, over 125,000 MW of reliable coal power generation capacity has been shut down since 2010 without replacement of new coal units. The last coal plants in the U.S. started up in 2013. The chart below by Our World in Data is a factual summary of wind and solar electricity generation in the world as of 2023, compared to the reality of use of all forms of primary energy:
Overview of Electricity Generation in the World
The leader of our panel discussion at Liberty University was Dave Walsh. Here is Dave’s presentation on an overview of electricity generation in the U.S. and the world. The slide below shows the impact on electricity cost as renewables exceed 30% of the total generation portfolio. There is a distinct correlation of electricity cost rises with increasing wind and solar generation.
Do Not Despair! There is Hope for the Future!
I am confident that President Trump, Chris Wright and the Trump team will seek a rational path forward with regard to energy policy. I am thankful for President Trump and the Patriots in his Cabinet that all are serving at a severe pay cut or no pay at all to help get our country back on track. The report by Chris Wright’s company, Liberty Energy offers a glimpse of hope and common sense. The title of the report: “Bettering Human Lives” Yes, energy does improve the quality of life for everyone and energy is in fact, the Life-Blood of the economy. May God Bless President Trump and his Cabinet.
The Biden-Harris Administration and Congressional Democrats are Self Righteous, Environmental Zealots with low energy IQ’s, they are seriously misguided and have created anti-American energy policies that are impossible to achieve. These self righteous Bureaucrats and elected officials are detached from energy reality and are destroying our country. As the quote by Churchill’s Minister of Labour said, “Heaven Runs on Righteousness and the Earth Runs on Energy” Biden, Harris and the Democrats do not understand this.
My retired engineer friends and me are amongst the 5% or so of Americans that understand energy and electricity generation. These enviro-zealot government policy makers have been placed in office by the 95% majority that does NOT understand energy and electricity generation.
The majority of Americans have been misguided into believing carbon is an existential threat, worse than nuclear weapons or other catastrophes.
How? by the Main Stream Media, Entertainment personalities, “Woke” corporations and misguided, low energy IQ politicians.
President Biden has stated that Climate Change is an Existential Threat Facing Humanity He is wrong. The war on carbon is the threat to America’s future.
Coal power has provided the foundation of America’s Industrial strength and our high quality of life. Coal continues to be important, especially during times of peak Demand. Especially winter. For Industrial production, coal is used to produce 70% of the world’s steel, 90% of cement and 61% of the aluminum.
Energy is the Lifeblood of a Developed Country’s industrial productive capacity, social functioning, food production and job creating economy. The environmental Zealots are doing their best to bleed out the energy Lifeblood of our country.
Energy is the economy, it fuels our way of life and supports a strong national defense.
One Engineer’s Steam Venting Rant
Yes, some may say I am a grumpy old man. Well, maybe I am. As I see it, I have a lot to be grumpy about. I am not alone, I know dozens of other veteran engineers that worked the same productive decades I did, beginning in the 1960’s. We studied and worked hard, long hours and we did our best to contribute to building a better America. Especially, the reliable, affordable electric Grid. After working for over 50 years to do our parts in building the “Largest Machine in the World” the American Electric Grid, here we are watching as misguided enviro-zealots destroy the foundation of what we helped build. These enviro-zealots have low energy IQ’s, nearly zero understanding of how reliable power generation functions and as they work against the fuels we depend on. Worse yet, they do not seem to care about the consequences for our country.
I predict that Blackouts will become more common and power costs will continue to escalate, thanks to the Net-Zero carbon path the U.S. is on. The “Inflation Reduction Act” codified the “Green New Deal” into law and the increased anti carbon Regulations of the EPA and other Alphabet soup Federal agencies have America on a perilous path.
This winter will be difficult and it is likely that there will be more lives lost, such as Texas experienced in 2021 with the winter Blackouts. I am steamed up and this commentary is my way of venting that steam.
Electricity in the 1950’s to 1970’s
Let me quote a 1950 magazine ad by Babcock & Wilcox. The last line reads:
“B&W will cooperate with our busy Utilities for still further improvement-in service-and a way of life-that have made America great and strong”
My compliments to B&W, C-E, FW, G-E, Westinghouse, Riley, Alis-Chalmers, DeLaval (and many other fine U.S. supply-chain companies with hundreds of thousands of employees) and the electric Utility industry, yes they succeeded to make America Great and Strong!
For over a hundred years, America had the most reliable, most reasonable cost electricity Grid of any major nation. America set the standard of being the best at providing affordable and dependable electricity. The economy grew and the use of coal paralleled the growth of GDP.
Then the “War on Coal” began. I am still at a loss as to why there was so much angst against the very fuel that powered America through two World Wars and built the largest industrial economy in the history of the world. I have written much on the war on coal and some of the people and organizations that promoted the “Self Inflicted Electricity Crisis“(1,2,3,4, 5, 6, 7, 8,9,10,11) If you wish more background, much has been published, kindly read the referenced commentaries and references included at the end.
Here are some of my personal experiences and some of the reasons why I am irritated at the enviro-zealots.
America Had Over 100 Years of Affordable, Reliable, Abundant and Dispatchable Electricity Until the War On Coal Began in the 1990’s. Now, the Infra-Structure that provided the Foundation of our Reliable Electric Grid is Being Destroyed byPolicymakers that are either misinformed or they have low energy IQ’s and have NOT done their homework. U.S. Energy Policymakers have created this crisis, right before our eyes. In 2010 about 30% of the U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity was provided by Coal Fueled Power Plants and right at 50% of electricity generation was from coal fuel. Since 2010 about half of these have been shut down. Suitable replacement of new electricity generation should have been built first before destroying about half of the reliable coal plants in America. A Balanced Portfolio would and should have included new nuclear plants, new High Efficiency, Low Emissions (HELE) coal plants and of course, natural gas combined cycle plants.
At least 125,000 MW’s of New, In Kind Generation Capacity should have been built before destroying the existing reliable, affordable and Dispatchable coal plants.
I will attempt to explain what is being done to destroy electricity reliability and what should be done: Here is an example of a typical large Utility Coal Power Plant. The Roxboro Generating Plant of Duke Energy near Roxboro, NC. The first unit started up in 1966 and Unit #4 in 1980. This one is special to me, because I was the startup engineer for Unit #3 in 1973 and I worked at the plant on all four units for several different companies over my career. So, I am very familiar with all the plant major equipment.
This plant when operating at 2500 MWh and an 80% load factor will consume about 700 tons of coal per hour. This is seven full railroad coal cars. When operating as designed, it would consume about six million tons of coal per year. Let me compare this large Thermal Plant with a large Hydro Plant, say the Robert Moses Hydro-Electric plant at Niagara Falls. This one thermal power plant in Roxboro produces as much as this huge facility and it fits on a real-estate parcel of a few thousand acres. The Robert Moses hydroelectric plant is powered by rainwater runoff from eight U.S. states and one Canadian Province. The outflow of most of the water from the Great Lakes flows to the Niagara River and through the hydroelectric generators installed there.
Comparison of Energy Density, Coal, Hydro and Solar
How Much Power Generation is 2500 MW? Did You Ever Visit Niagara Falls? The U.S. Side New York Power Authority Generation Station that uses the American share of the total outflow of the Great Lakes is about the same size in Electricity Generation Capability as the Roxboro Coal Plant. The energy density of hydroelectric power is very low, it takes enormous amounts of land area and elevation change to provide the potential for hydroelectric generation. In North America, all the large sources of falling water have been utilized. Solar power to replace a coal plant the size of Roxboro has an even lower energy density, and it would require between 40 and 160 square miles of land area to provide intermittent 25% capacity factor generation when the weather permits. With battery storage, about 160 square miles would be required to replace a 2500 MW fossil plant. Even then solar power is weather dependent on clouds and sunshine. On reliability, a snowstorm will reduce output to zero and a hailstorm destroy the capacity for months until the panels can be replaced.
So, What’s the Problem?
Over 122,000 MW of electric power generation capacity has been demolished. This is the equivalent of 50 power plants the size of Roxboro Generating Station or the size of the Robert Moses Hydro-electric plant in Niagara Falls, NY.
There has NOT been a major new coal plants built in the U.S. since 2013. Yet, America is the Saudi Arabia of coal and within our country is the highest quality, high BTU, low ash coal found on the planet.
Low Energy IQ Decision in Minnesota
Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota presided over the war on coal in Minnesota. Cheered on by CNN, here is the article where Minnesota and the “Woke” Utility serving that area have decided to shut down the very reliable Sherco Coal Plant (about 2700 MW) and replace it with solar panels. I am not kidding. Here is the link to the CNN article. From an energy and electricity planning standpoint, this is ludicrous. I have worked at the Sherco plant and it is, or at least was well run and well maintained. Like Roxboro Plant mentioned above, capable of generating electricity 24/7 in any kind of weather. Including during snow storms, hail storms, and cloudy days. This is irresponsible at the least. To be fair, it had to be agreed to by Xcel Energy’s “Woke” top management, who obviously have to know better? In my mind, I am at a loss to understand how Utility management can accept pressure from the government without educating the public and pushing back on un-American regulations. When Sherco is shut down, the winters in Minnesota will be more expensive and more difficult for the industries and residents.
Here are a couple of quotes from the CNN article by Xcel Energy President when talking about replacing the coal generation with solar panels: “It allows us to move much more quickly,” said Ryan Long, Xcel Energy’s Minnesota president, who called reusing the plant’s infrastructure “a real key to our strategy here.”
“We’re a good wind and solar state,” Wyckoff said. “Anything we burn that’s fossil fuel, we are importing. We are making the wind and solar electricity here.”
It’s also a huge step forward for Minnesota’s climate and clean energy goals. Under its Democratic governor and 2024 vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz, the state is aggressively trying to decarbonize its power sector — getting to 100% clean electricity by 2040.
“That is a key driver for how we’re going to decarbonize the rest of the economy,” Wykoff said. “We’re aiming to be clean economy-wide by 2050. And I think we can get there.”
Hmmm, I suggest revisiting the viability of solar to replace coal in January or the next Polar Vortex.
How Do We Treat the Most Reliable, Most Affordable Electric Generating Plants in the U.S.?
The picture above is the implosion of the Sutton Unit #3 at Duke Energy near Wilmington, NC. This one is also personal to me, because I was also the lead Boiler Startup engineer in charge in 1972 when Sutton #3 went into commercial operation.
To generate 122,000 MW, (a conservative estimate of the total reliable coal generation capacity destroyed since 2010) it would take 290 plants like this.
Who is Cheering as these Reliable Coal Plants are Demolished?
The Sierra Club website keeps score on their “Beyond Coal” Campaign and they show 385 total coal Units shut down since 2010. According to the Sierra Club, only 145 to go.
Oh yes, there are in fact other’s that are cheering for America to sabotage our electric Grid…..
Two fair questions can be asked:
1. Who cares?
2. Do we really need these old coal plants?
I will answer the questions with an emphatic Yes, I care and Yes, we need them! We do need the remaining 145 coal plants.
What Should America be Doing? In my opinion, we should be building new nuclear power plants right now. Also, at least 50 new HELE (High Efficiency, Low Emissions) 2500 MW coal plants. Until a new and expanded nuclear fleet can be designed, built constructed and proven, we should reinforce our electricity Grid with more conventional and Dispatchable generation. A coal plant handles the “Energy Storage” security concern by having the inherent capability of storing months of fuel on site. Electricity generation is Not dependent on “just in time” pipeline provided gas flow.
Overall, America produces about 16% of our electricity from coal fuel. However, three important differences of coal plants compared to solar and wind are: Coal power is Dispatchable. Coal plants can be ramped up in power output to match the Demand. Wind and solar are intermittent and are therefore, Non-Dispatchable. Some advantages of a coal plant:
Fuel Storage on site
Coal power is less expensive to produce
Coal power generation is dependable in all weather conditions, 24/7
The greatest need for coal plants come at peak Demand hours in the summer and the winter. Especially winter.
Energy Powers Economic Prosperity Reasonable electricity cost is especially important for Industrial production. For example, production of primary metals such aluminum, steel and copper use enormous amounts of electricity. Aluminum smelting requires 5 kWh per pound of aluminum smelted from aluminum oxide. That 5 kWh does not include the processing of Bauxite into alumina, transportation and ingot remelting, forging or sheet production. In my state of S.C. we have an aluminum smelter operated by Century Aluminum and a couple of steel mills operated by NUCOR. These use hundreds of Megawatts of power and that power must be of reasonable cost to remain competitive. When it comes to economic strength, it is Industrial production that provides the jobs that allow families to prosper. Over 40% of the world’s primary energy use is for primary metals production and manufacturing. Reasonable cost, reliable electricity generation is a pre-requisite for Economic Prosperity and especially, job providing Industrial production.
What About Wind and Solar? Can these Renewables Replace Fossil Fuels?
In terms of PRIMARY Energy, wind and solar, after decades of subsidies, provide an insignificant quantity of America’s Primary Energy.
The war on coal fueled power stations is contributing to the coming electricity reliability crisis. The War on Coal” is self-Inflicted and anti-American. Wind and Solar cannot replace the PRIMARY Energy of coal, nuclear and gas. Six materials that our society depends on require enormous amounts of energy and cannot be electrified: Steel, Aluminum, Plastics, Ammonia Fertilizer and Cement.
Electricity is Secondary Energy. Electrifying everything is impossible and needs to be evaluated by a new President and Congressional Leaders that care about the future of our country. Biden-Harris and the Democrats act as if they are puppets of Xi Jinping, Putin and the Ayatollah, working to weaken the U.S. from within.
So, What about China and the Rest of the World?
In 2023, more coal was burned in the world than ever in recorded history. Developing countries and the second largest economy of the world China are lifting people from poverty and increasing manufacturing using conventional forms of power generation, including coal. China now has over 400 new ultra-supercritical, coal plants either in permitting stages or under construction. China uses about 56% of the world’s total coal consumption to power its manufacturing economy. Long story short on the “Earth Running on Energy”, China Gets it!
China uses about 10 times the coal consumption of the U.S. In fact, China accounts for 56% of global coal demand. In 2022, coal provided more than 60% of China’s power generation.
What Would it Take to Replace Fossil Fuels for Electricity Generation?
The 2023 book by Donn Dears outlined what it would take to replace coal and gas power generation in the U.S. Here is his summary:
Nuclear power is the largest carbon free form of electric power generation and the best hope for the future. However, as Mr. Dears points out, it would take about 31 nuclear plant expansions such as that just completed last year at Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle. That 2,200 MW expansion took over ten years to complete. Now how feasible is it for the U.S. supply-chain (including skilled talent) to build 31 Plant Vogtles every year from now till 2050?
Conclusions
America has NO Energy Policy only a Decarbonization PolicyOnly Climate Policies that attack the very fuels that our country depends upon. The Net-Zero Carbon Path that America is on will weaken if not destroy our country’s productive capacity. Worse yet, if CO2 emissions are a concern, then shutting down all of America’s coal plants will not make a difference anyway. Further, the science of Anthropogenic Climate Change is NOT settled and there are many Scientists that have strong arguments that the consumption of carbon is only a minor contributor to Climate Change. So, why destroy America’s productive capacity and cede further manufacturing jobs to China or other countries of the world? Especially when the so called “Climate Crisis” is really Climate Fraud. (181,182)
Much of this was presented at the Liberty University CEO-Summit September 24th in Lynchburg, VA.
Yours truly,
Dick Storm, October 3, 2024
Note: To give credit where it is due, the title is a paraphrase of Churchill’s Minister of Labour, Ernest Bevin. The full quote attributed to him: “The Kingdom of Heaven Runs on Righteousness,The Kingdom of Earth Runs on Energy”
Vaclav Smil book: “The Way the World Really Works” Dr. Steve Koonin book: “Unsettled” Science based web site on Climate Science: https://climate4you.com
Here’s what the IPCC really believes about the effects of climate change compared to other factors. All the rest is scare tactics, and gross exaggeration. No way 0.5C increase in temperature, if it occurs, could be anything but positive. Note the use of the words “small” & large” Dr. Pat&t=jx86j0I-tJuKCNreXz1BDA
Donn Dears book, “Have No Fear”
Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery book, “UnstoppableGlobal Warming” published 2007 Book, “Hot Talk, Cold Science” 3rd edition, 2021, By Singer, Legates and Lupo
CO2 Coalition has an extensive web site with more science based Climate and Atmospheric Science information: https://co2coalition.org
You Tube Presentation on the Influence of the Sun on Earth’s Climate, also at 3 minutes 10 seconds into the video, the recent excellent paper on Net Zero Carbon by William Happer, Richard Lindzen and W. A. van Wijngaarden is discussed, (link below) June 12, 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfhbEDuZXDs
For all of us that understand energy and electric power generation, we know the electricity generation reliability crisis will get worse and there will be Rationing and Rolling Blackouts. We have already arrived at the critical point and over the last three years people have died from Blackouts. Even once highly respected Utilities such as Duke Energy have imposed rolling Blackouts during high load demand conditions. Two news clips follow as reminders from 2021 and 2022.
So, What Are Some of the Causes of Electric Reliability?
The number one cause is the “War on Coal” power plants! This misguided Net-Zero Carbon policy has caused hundreds of dependable, reliable coal power plants to be demolished. The “War on Coal” is referred to by the government as “Climate Policies”. It is as if shutting down America’s most reliable, affordable and dispatchable source of power generation will change the climate. It is nuts. Professor Vaclav Smil offers some of his views here.(97) My previous blog post discussed “Threats to the Grid”, most of which are due to excessive and unnecessary Federal Government Regulations. (177)
Who or What Respected Organizations Confirm the Crisis?
According to NERC (North American Electricity Reliability Council) over 122,000 MW of coal plants have been shut down and most, demolished since 2010.(92, 106) Most of this lost generation capacity has not been replaced with electricity generation capacity of like reliability, affordability and Dispatchability. Thus, our electric system has become stressed with increasing demand but fewer dispatchable power generation facilities. The chart below is from the NERC Summer Reliability Report, 2024. As can be seen on the chart, in 2013 dependable coal plants represented about 30% of total installed generation capacity. By 2023 the dispatchable coal plants had declined to 18%. The non-Dispatchable solar and wind in 2023 represent over 8% of total generation capacity. However, non-dispatch able means, the solar and wind provide power when nature provides proper sunlight and wind, not when a customer (you) turns on a power consuming device. Such as an electric stove or EV charger. Michelle Bloodworth discussed the role of the out of control EPA Rules on the coming electricity crisis in a POWER Magazine commentary. (106)
America Had Over 100 Years of Affordable, Reliable, Abundant and Dispatchable Electricity Until The War On Coal Began in the 1990’s
Here is an example of a typical large Utility Coal Power Plant. This one is special to me, because I was the startup engineer for Unit #3 in 1973 and I worked at the plant for several different companies over the next 40 years. So, I am very familiar with all of the plant equipment. This plant when operating at an 80% load factor will consume about 700 tons of coal per hour. This is seven full railroad coal cars each hour. It is about six million tons per year of coal.
How Much Power Generation is 2500 MW? Did You Ever Visit Niagara Falls? The U.S. Side New York Power Authority Generation Station that uses the American share of the total outflow of the Great Lakes is about the same size as Roxboro Coal Plant in Electricity Generation Capacity.
A typical large coal fueled power plant can produce about the same amount of electricity as the Robert Moses, NYPA Niagara Falls Hydro-Electric Plant.
The Roxboro Coal Generating Plant when operating at 100% load will produce about 2500 MW of electricity. Let me compare this large Thermal Plant with a large Hydro Plant, say the Robert Moses Hydro-Electric plant at Niagara Falls. Why? Because when I was employed by then Carolina Power & Light Company, I was part of an ASME Committee. Our ASME group had a technical meeting in Niagara Falls. While there, the organizers provided a private tour of the large hydro-electric plant. (that was in the 1970’s, before 911 security measures) My first impression was, “Holy Cow, our plant in Roxboro produces as much as this huge facility and it fits on a real-estate parcel of a few thousand acres”. The Robert Moses hydroelectric plant is powered by rainwater runoff from eight U.S. states and one Canadian Province. The outflow of most of the water from the Great Lakes flows to the Niagara River and through the hydroelectric plants installed there. This is an example of the energy density of a coal plant as compared to hydroelectric power generation.
So, Why is America Facing Electricity Rationing and Blackouts?
The U.S. Grid powered a thriving economy for over 100 years with great reliability, based on reliable, affordable and Dispatchable coal power plants. They were made ever more efficient and cleaner resulting in some of the cleanest air in the U.S. of any industrialized country.
Then, after about 2013 government regulatory policies and popular culture has created a self-sabotaging of electric reliability. Over 122,000 MW of electric power generation capacity has been demolished.
This is the equivalent of 50 power plants the size of Roxboro Generating Station The war on coal fueled power stations is contributing to the coming electricity reliability crisis. The War on Coal” is self-Inflicted and anti-American.
To my knowledge, there has NOT been a major new coal plant built in the U.S. since 2013.
122,000 MW of Reliable Coal Power Generation Has Been Demolished
The picture below is the implosion of the Sutton Unit #3 at Duke Energy near Wilmington, NC. This one is also personal to me, because I was also the lead Boiler Startup engineer in charge in June 1972 when Sutton #3 went into commercial operation (Then Carolina Power & Light Co.). To generate 122,000 MW, it would take 290 plants like this. In actuality, the Sierra Club website keeps score on the Beyond Coal Campaign and they show 385 total coal Units shut down since 2010. According to the Sierra Club, only 145 to go.
(Some) Non Governmental and Federal Governmental Agencies that Influence the Government Climate Policies That are Destroying American Electricity Reliability
Two fair questions can be asked: 1. Who cares?
2. Do we really need these old coal plants?
I will answer both of the questions with an emphatic Yes, I care and Yes we need them!We do need the remaining 145 coal plants and in addition, more replacements should be being constructed right now.
Overall, America produces about 16% of our electricity from coal fuel. However, the difference of coal plants compared to solar and wind, is that the coal power is Dispatchable. That means that when the need for electricity increases, the coal plants can be ramped up in power output to match the Demand. Wind and solar are intermittent and are therefore, Non-Dispatchable. Further, a coal pile on site can store months of PRIMARY Energy. Pipelines are “Just in Time” fuel delivery. Do you remember the Colonial Pipeline Hack in 2021? In 2024 it is projected that about 50% of electricity production will be from pipeline supplied natural gas in 2024. Think about that. (176)
Note from the chart below how America’s electricity generation has transitioned from coal as the major (greater than 45%) in 2010 to now, natural gas has taken over the lead as the dominant Primary Energy source for electric power generation.
The greatest need for coal plants come at peak Demand hours in the summer and the winter. Especially winter!
The PJM Interconnection Chart of Electric Power Production by fuel is from January 26, 2022. Then, it was 31% coal power generation. Many of the coal plants in service then, have been shut down. More will be lost by January 2025.
The coal plant generation capacity continues to decline as the momentum of the overwhelming assault on coal power continues. This war on carbon based fuels only applies to free, capitalist western countries.
The electricity crisis that we are facing, is self-inflicted by well financed extremist NGO’s, misguided politicians and Deep State (SWAMP) EPA Bureaucrats. The “War on Coal” is now nearly won by enemies of American prosperity. The “Green New Deal”, which has been codified as the so called, “Inflation Reduction Act” is now a law that will be difficult to repeal. So, what is the rest of the world doing? Do the Bureaucrats in Washington care?
What About Coal Use in the World? It has been Rising and in 2023 the Greatest Coal Consumption Ever Has Been Recorded
China consumes over 50% of the world’s coal.
Reasonable Cost, Reliable Energy and Electricity is a Pre-Requisite for Economic Prosperity. It worked for the U.S. and it has been Proven by China too
China is the world’s largest manufacturer. This was not always the case. After 2001 when China was admitted to the World Trade Organization they ramped up aluminum and steel production to exceed all other countries of the world in tonnage produced. This takes a lot of Primary Energy and it provides a case study of the relationship of reasonable cost and reliable coal power and economic prosperity.
Conclusions
I have spoken to Professional groups of people who are above average in income level, reached prominent levels of respect in the Community that are Doctors, Lawyers, Teachers, Business owners, Politicians, Bank Presidents and basically, well-informed, well-read individuals. Even technically trained engineers that are not involved in power generation. When I tell them America has NO Energy Policy only a Decarbonization Policy they Look at me like I am creating some kind of fairy tale.
However, it is true, America has NO Energy Policy. Only Climate Policies that attack the very fuels that our country has depended on and continues to depend on. There are policies in place to destroy American electricity reliability.
Electric Reliability will be worse in the winter. Yes, expect serious problems this December and January 2025
The Climate Polices of the Biden-Harris Administration are NOT based on protecting human health or the environment. They began as a war on coal by NGO’s and the United Nations and then they were carried forward by the Clinton Administration. The Clinton EPA started the assault on coal plants with aggressive lawsuits called “New Source Review”. I wrote a few articles on this, here is one I presented to an EPRI meeting in 2009, another which the Dr. Robert Peltier, then Editor of Power Magazine republished in Master Resource, in 2010.(178, 179) The War on coal greatly expanded during the Obama and Biden Administrations. Net-Zero Carbon is a path to one world government and Socialism, not clean air. The “War on Coal, has now expanded into a War on ALL Fossil Fuels and this is leading to the destruction of reliable electricity generation in America. The only benefactors of the war on carbon in the free world are China, Russia and the rest of the BRICS nations. The Best Interests of the American people, jobs, prosperity and Freedom are NOT a priority of Biden-Harriis.
Further, killing America’s productive capacity will do nothing to improve the environment when the total world energy use is considered. Net-Zero Carbon will only Destroy America’s Productive Capacity.
It is as if the leaders in our government are intentionally weakening America and thus ceding our manufacturing, International Hegemony and other strengths to China and the rest of the world. To me, these policies are inexplicably anti-American. Why? Do you wish to dig deeper? Perhaps if you peruse the 175 or so references below, you may find some reasons of how these terrible Climate Policies have come to be. If you read them, you will come to the conclusion, as I have, that Net-Zero Carbon will not improve human health, food supply, improved quality of life or economic prosperity. Travis Fisher of CATO provided testimony before Congress recently, where he stated, “Energy Can Be A Bright Spot in Our Economy, If We Let it” (180)
The American Electricity Crisis is in fact, Self-Inflicted.
“Clean Energy Crisis”, Book by Donn Dears, 2023. An excellently written, short and concise review of the energy crisis we are facing. Available on Amazon:
You Tube Presentation on the Influence of the Sun on Earth’s Climate, also at 3 minutes 10 seconds into the video, the recent excellent paper on Net Zero Carbon by William Happer, Richard Lindzen and W. A. van Wijngaarden is discussed, (link below) June 12, 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfhbEDuZXDs
This is Part III of a three part series. Part I covered the basics of the three major Heat-Engines that provide about 75% of our electricity in the U.S. Part II covered the propulsion systems for ocean shipping. This article will explain the basics of smaller Heat-Engines used for electricity generation, farming, food production, food distribution, automobiles, trucks, trains, aircraft, small engines for landscape, construction, mining, military defense machines and more. Internal Combustion Engines (ICE’s) powered by fossil fuels are used widely in all sectors of our economy.
Conventional Energy=Life as We Know It
Let’s start with the largest Internal Combustion Engine ever built. The Wartsilla Marine Engine is credited to be the largest reciprocating Diesel engine in the world. These have been tested at up to 114,000 Hp.
State of the art design Marine Propulsion Prime Movers Have Been Adapted for Use as Stationary Power Generation for a Long Time.
Electric Power generation technology progressed from ship and aircraft propulsion systems over the years. Many central station power plant systems have their roots in marine and aircraft propulsion. Consider these milestones for land, sea and aircraft:(14)
Robert Fulton Steamboat Clermont-1807
Otto invents the 4-Cycle Gas engine-1867
Charles Parsons, invents Steam Turbine-1884
Charles Parsons Steam Turbine drive on Turbinia-1894, Fastest Ship in the world
Rudolf Diesel invents Compression Ignition Diesel engine-1895
First large Diesel engines for Maritime use are in German Submarines during WWI
Dr. Hans von Ohain (Germany) and Sir Frank Whittle (UK) are both recognized as being the co-inventors of the jet engine, later adapted to electric power generation-1933
U.S. Nuclear submarine Nautilus launched 1954 powered by a PWR
Largest Diesel Engine ever built-Wartsilla RTA96-C 107,000 HP-2006
Internal Combustion Engines for Electricity Generation
Large natural gas and Diesel powered generators are commonly used for Dispatchable backup power for areas served by large capacity of wind and solar generation. When the wind stops and sun is not shining, the Grid must be stabilized with adequate generation that is needed quickly. Internal combustion engines serve this need very well. The picture below is from a facility near Marquette, Michigan. This picture below is a 17 MW (24,000 Hp) gas engine. Multiple engines can be installed for total power capacity of over 225 MW as in the Denton, TX plant.
The advantages of the gas engines are: They have black start capability, fast load response, VAR (Volt Ampere Reactive) support, most importantly they can run 24/7 under any weather conditions and they are Dispatchable. The adaption from marine propulsion systems makes the features of black start and load responsiveness intrinsic in the design. These are referred to as “RICE”, an acronym for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines.
Aeroderivative Gas Turbines
The aeroderivative gas turbines also serve as tremendously reliable, Dispatchable and powerful prime movers for generators. The name aeroderivative is descriptive as these heat-engines have a long history of development and advancements in materials and design for reliable aircraft propulsion. Therefore, reliability is an intrinsic priority. One of the most common and proven designs is the G-E LM-2500 shown below.
In Part I of this series I described the larger G-E Gas Turbines used with Combined Steam Cycles (GTCC) of the 600-700 MW capacity range. Like the internal combustion reciprocating engines, the gas turbine prime mover has the advantages of fast starts, Dispatchability, VARs support, 24/7 operation, rapid load response and quick shutdown. Truly flexible generation.
Heat-Engines in our Everyday Lives
The most common Internal Combustion Engines (ICE’s) of course are used in transportation. Automobiles, trucks, tractors, farm equipment, construction equipment, aircraft, ships and trains. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, about 37% of the total Primary Energy used in the U.S. during 2023 was for transportation. About 28 Quadrillion BTUs to be exact.
These are the forms of energy that power our lives each day. The ICE is a large part of our lives whether it is in powering our computer, providing illumination, powering industrial production, construction, farming and providing jobs. Also, very importantly for our freedom of travel…..providing the fuel for transportation of our families and friends.
Fertilizer, Farming, Food Production and Food Distribution
Perhaps farming and food distribution should be at the top of the list as it is one of the most basic human needs. Food production begins with fertilizer production which is off topic for this article, but fertilizer production represents a significant portion of total primary energy consumption. It is said by Vaclav Smil and other experts that synthetic fertilizer production is important to feed about 50% of the world’s population. Then, once fertilizer is produced; planting/harvesting/processing/Distribution of food progresses from farm to table. Energy is important every step along the way.(9)
The enormous productivity benefit of a Diesel tractor is obvious. The importance of energy in producing fertilizer, food processing, refrigeration and trucking distribution is not so obvious. However, much of food production farm to table, involves heat-engines and fossil fuels. In fact, the cost component of energy; farm to table is about 50% energy.
The IEA has analyzed the cost component of energy for common foods and documented that about 50% of food cost is from energy.(10)
Conclusions
Conventional forms of energy are important and it takes a lot of natural gas, petroleum, coal and nuclear to power and sustain our high quality of life. Those that believe wind and solar can replace conventional forms of energy during the next twenty years are delusionally misguided and indoctrinated with misinformation. Professor Vaclav Smil has documented this quite well, (He has written dozens of books on the subject and is, in fact one of the sharpest world energy experts)
Four components of our lives cannot be replaced by renewable power. Those four pillars of society are Fertilizer, Steel, Concrete and Plastics.(11, 15)
The “Heat-Engines” that Civil Society Depends on will remain important for a long time and so will fossil fuels. This three part series was intended to provide an overview of these magnificent machines.
Yours truly,
Dick Storm, August 10, 2024
References and Information for further reading and research
How many products have you bought lately that have a “Made in America” label on them? This article is to provide some background on the importance of conventional fossil fuels to provide the fuel for over 53,000 ocean transport ships. The MV Dali collision with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore provides a wakeup call regarding the immensity of world trade. The MV Dali is reported to have a fuel capacity of 1.8 million gallons of fuel. Its engine is an MAN-B&W Diesel rated at 41,480 MW or 55,6260 Horsepower.(2)There are thousands of other large ocean transport ships like her that we depend on each day to distribute raw materials and products to the people of the world, 99% are powered by fossil fuels.
Sometimes, it takes a tragedy to stir the public’s attention. Before the Dali collision and subsequent collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, many folks may not have given much thought to the number of huge ships like this that are delivering raw materials and manufactured products throughout the world.
My main point is, the motive force to propel these ships through the water represents a lot of primary energy. According to the IEA, about 8.7 Exajoules (8.2 Quadrillion BTUs).About 25% of the world’s total energy consumption is used for transportation, when all ships, trains, motor vehicles and aircraft are considered.
How Much Fuel Does one Large Ship Consume?
One of the largest container ships to call on the U.S., the CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin, carries approximately 4.5 million gallons of fuel oil. The smaller Dali about 1.8 million gallons.
The CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin is considered an ultra-large container ship, as it can carry the equivalent of 18,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in containers. Ultra-large container ships are more frequently used to bring goods from Asia to Europe.
Container ships that can go through the old Panama Canal locks are called Panamax ships and can generally hold up to 5,000 TEUs. Those vessels typically hold between 1.5 million and 2 million gallons of fuel. (The Dali was carrying 4,680 containers when it struck the Key Bridge)
Many container ships that call on the U.S. now are considered post-Panamax or New Panamax, named so because they are larger and can go through the newer, larger locks on the Panama Canal. Those ships are generally in the 8,000- to 14,000-TEU range. Ships in that size range can carry between 2.5 million and 4.5 million gallons of fuel.
The amount of fuel actually to be used on a trip depends primarily on the ship’s speed. Most ship engines have been designed for top speeds ranging between 20 and 25 knots per hour, which is between 23 and 28 miles per hour. A Panamax container ship can consume 63,000 gallons of marine fuel per day at that speed. This is a lot of fuel however, when expressed as fuel per ton mile, ocean transport is more efficient and uses less fuel/ton of cargo than any other method of shipping.
How Many Ships?
There are over 53,000 merchant ships registered to sail the oceans. This according to “Info Maritime” (1) The top 15 countries for numbers of vessels is shown on the chart below.
Closing Summary
Ocean transport is important to supply the people of the world with the products, food and raw materials needed to live sustainable lives. (Sustainable to me means, living the high quality of life that we enjoy now)
I should mention that this article was inspired by Ron Stein’s article in “America Out Loud”, which made mention of petroleum products making possible 6,000 products, 50,000 military aircraft, 50,000 ships and 20,000 commercial airplanes that the people of the world all depend.(7)
Fossil Fuels in the U.S.A.
Fossil Fuels used in the U.S.A. are shown below by the EIA for the year 2023. The world use of maritime fuel was stated by the IEA at 8.2 Quadrillion BTUs. The U.S. portion uses 26.1 Quadrillion BTUs of petroleum products for all transportation (34% of total fossil fuels), as shown below by the EIA chart. (If Exajoules and Quadrillion BTUs seem abstract, then think “Billions of gallons”.)
Conclusions
Ocean transport is important to sustain our quality of life. Including transport of food. Billions of gallons of Fossil fuels are used for shipping and this reasonable cost and abundant fuel is extremely important to keep international shipping costs reasonable.
The marine industry is under pressure to Decarbonize.(9) This is not only ludicrous but also it will be very expensive. The large and truly magnificent reciprocating internal combustion engines, a couple examples are discussed above are versatile and with some modifications, can be converted to use hydrogen, Methanol or ammonia. However, the production of hydrogen as a fuel requires much more energy, up to four times as much for production as is provided by the burning of the resulting hydrogen as fuel. Therefore a quick back of the envelope calculation would indicate that changing to hydrogen fuel will cost 4 times as much as current marine Diesel or Bunker fuel. Have you bought any hydrogen lately?
Large reciprocating engines similar to those used for ocean transport have been successfully used on land in stationary power generation power plants. They have the operations flexibility for fast starting and a quick shut down.(10, 11, 12) Operational flexibility that is ideal for backing up intermittent renewable solar and wind. The next article will feature these derivatives of large marine engines that are used for backup of Variable electricity generation renewables.
The 20th century began with much farm work, transportation, heating and home chores being done with muscle power and wood burning. As coal, petroleum, natural gas and later nuclear energy were applied to replace muscle power, our country experienced rapid growth in industrial production, food production, shipping, travel and a growing economy. Also, comforts and conveniences at home and work such as air conditioning, refrigeration, cooking, dishwashers, automatic washers, and more. A previous article on the history of energy is here. That 105 year period 1850-1955 yielded incredible growth in both industrial output and economic growth. The strength of the U.S. grew and expanded for the U.S. to become the Greatest country in the world, with the largest economy in the world. This was made possible by many factors, including; the Judeo-Christian work ethic of the people, Liberty, Capitalism, Free Markets, creativity, inventiveness, innovation and the abundance of God’s given treasure of Domestic energy resources. Including the richest deposits of coal in the world, natural gas and petroleum. America, the Saudi Arabia of Coal!
An important point, not often discussed. Wherever there is coal, so is there oil and gas. In 2023, the U.S. produced more crude oil than any other country.(24) This in spite of excessive Federal regulations and an out of control EPA.
Reasonable cost and abundant energy was essential for America’s success, just as energy is essential for any other country’s success. America’s energy use is reported in British Thermal Units (BTU) and the U.S. uses about 100 Quadrillion BTUs each year. The Energy Institute and the International Energy Administration reports world energy use in Exajoules (EJ) and the world uses about 620 Exajoules per year. (0.947817 x 620 EJ= 587.6 Quadrillion BTU)
Why Horsepower?
I have written on this before and had some feedback from readers and friends that “The general public doesn’t understand it when they are told they use about 850,000 BTUs of energy each day or the U.S. used 100 Quadrillion BTUs in a year”. Therefore, for this two part essay I thought I would express electricity energy in “Horsepower”. Rather than BTUs, kWH, Joules or Foot-Pounds, this article expresses energy production in Horsepower because, especially my family and friends, horsepower is a term most folks look at when buying a new car or truck, whether it is a 250 Hp Diesel fueled Ford F-150 or a 1020 Hp Tesla Model S. The fuel for each must first be provided by Primary Energy used to create either motive force or electricity.
Primary Energy
About 92% of the Primary energy used in America is used in Heat-Engines to power our high quality of life. About a third of the primary energy used in the U.S. is used to generate electricity. This article is intended to be a primer on the massive Heat-Engines that keep our Grid energized. Part 2 will include smaller heat-engines used for electric power generation and those used for transportation. It is my goal to keep the Thermodynamics simple so that non technically trained people can understand the importance of the 92% conventional Primary energy that we depend on. Past articles that I have written attempted to explain the differences of Primary Energy and Secondary Energy.Here, Here and Here. Primary energy flows in the U.S. for the year 2022 is shown on the LLNL chart here. The World use of Primary energy is shown by the Energy Institute here.
Common Large Heat-Engines
Definition of a Heat-Engine: A heat engine is a system that converts heat to usable energy, particularly mechanical energy, which can then be used to do mechanical work. Such as a Steam Turbine which converts the heat energy of steam into rotational force to spin a generator to produce electricity.
Also, a gas turbine or turbo-jet engine that uses heat energy to create rotational force to a shaft. A portion of the heat energy is exhausted as waste. The difference of the heat content of the steam or hot gas at the inlet and at the exhaust is the net work that has been extracted for useful purposes. In this article steam and gas turbines will be discussed. In a power plant the steam turbine or gas turbine is sometimes referred to as the Prime Mover. A previous article touches on Heat-Engines. The illustration below is a graphical description of the conversion of coal fuel to provide heat used to generate steam. The steam is then used to spin a turbine providing the motive force creating shaft horsepower to spin a generator and ultimately generating electric power. The heat source to produce steam can be coal, nuclear, natural gas, oil, biomass or municipal waste. The basic steam cycle remains the same, referred to in our industry as the “Rankine Steam Cycle”.
From Storm Technologies Large Electric Utility Boiler Combustion & Performance Optimization Course
Thermal Power is important for everything we do!
One pre-requisite to understanding Heat-Engines, is to understand the difference between Primary Energy and Secondary Energy. Covered in previous articles, here, here and here.
Types of Heat-Engines
Let’s start with one of the largest first. Here is a photo of the Zimmer Coal Plant. This plant shut down in 2022 but when started up in 1991 it was amongst the largest single unit power plants in the world with 1351 MW capacity, Dispatchable 24/7, rain or shine, summer or winter. This plant was one of my favorites and in my opinion, it is an example of one of the most magnificent heat engines ever built.
The photo above is just part of the power plant, showing the Low Pressure Turbine and generator. There is also a High Pressure turbine and separate generator. The entire Zimmer “Heat-Engine” comprises the entire power plant shown below in an aerial photo. Although I have been in the power generation business for over 50 years, it still amazes me that so much of the equipment involved in the total electrical energy production starting with a coal conveyer moving 500 tons per hour of coal can be pulverized and burned, produce steam to the turbines and generate electricity to the Grid (the equivalent of 1.8 million Hp) through three skinny high voltage wires that are smaller than 2″ in diameter and 1.8 million horsepower of energy.
Photo from Cincinnati Newspaper about 1994
The Zimmer Coal Plant when operating at full capacity of 1350 MW’s is equivalent to about 1,800,000 Horsepower. To generate this much power about one million pounds of 11,000 BTU/# coal would be pulverized and burned in suspension in the furnace each hour. That is one reason why I refer to this power plant as a Magnificent Heat Engine. The million pounds per hour (Imagine five 100 ton coal cars/hour) of coal is converted into electricity that flows through three high voltage conductors to the transmission lines feeding the Grid. The water flow to the steam generator is equivalent to about 20,000 gallons per minute. An Olympic swimming pool holds about 600,000 gallons. At maximum capacity the Zimmer steam generator will evaporate the equivalent of two Olympic swimming pools full of water each hour and heat that water to steam at over 3,845 pounds per square inch and 1,000 degrees F. The single turbine driven boiler feed water pump is powered by a 50 MW (67,000 Hp) steam turbine which is about as powerful as all the power consumed on a hot summer day in my old town (about 20,000 people) in Albemarle, NC. Fifty Megawatts is the power to drive just the feed water pump.
These are a few reasons why I consider Zimmer to be a magnificent Heat Engine. An excerpt from the POWER Magazine 1993 feature article is copied below.
Nuclear Power Generation
The Oconee Nuclear Plant is another example of Thermal power generation. Allow me to also call this a heat engine. Three units with a total capacity of 2,554 MW. The illustration below is from the Duke Energy Fact Sheet.
This three unit nuclear powered “Heat-Engine” is about twice as large in total output as the Zimmer Coal Plant discussed above. Expressed as Horsepower, the three units together represent the equivalent of over 3.3 million horsepower.
Both the Zimmer and Oconee plants utilize the Rankine Steam Cycle.
Natural Gas Turbines
Modern gas turbines used for power generation are referred to as “Aeroderivative” Why? Because the gas turbine technology used is derived from jet engine designs. I wrote on the history of power generation in a previous article here. Two engineers, one German and one British are credited with the invention of the jet engine which came to be in the mid 1930’s. The first gas turbine application to power generation is generally thought to be by General Electric at the Belle Isle Station in Oklahoma, about 1949. The simple Gas Turbine single cycle is called the “Brayton Cycle”. An illustration of a modern Gas Turbine is shown below.
The generator is not shown in the above illustration but it will be similar to the generator shown above at the Zimmer coal plant. The point is that heat energy is used in each example thus far. For Zimmer coal is used to generate steam supply to power steam turbines as prime movers. Oconee uses nuclear fission to provide the heat to generate steam for the steam turbines there. Both use the Rankine steam cycle. The gas turbine shown above utilizes the Brayton cycle to create hot gases that flow through the gas turbine as the prime mover for the generator shaft.
Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Plants (GTCC)
One of the major advancements in the last twenty years or so has been the commercial application of gas turbines and steam turbine cycles working together. That is using both gas turbines with a shaft connected to a generator and then exhaust heat recovery of the gas turbine in a boiler to generate steam to provide a steam supply to a steam turbine which is the prime mover of a second generator.
By combining the gas turbine and steam turbine cycles, a much greater overall efficiency can be achieved. Modern GTCC plants achieve up to 65% thermal efficiency.
The plant below is 697 MW capacity. Fueled by natural gas.
The GTCC plant electrical output of 697 MW is equivalent to 927,000 Horsepower.
Summary
Heat engines power our lives and very little is stated in the Main Stream Media about the importance of conventional energy. Especially, Thermal Energy. In fact, if anything is written or discussed on TV, the MSM demonizes carbon and thermal power. This article is an attempt to explain the immensity of electric power generation systems on which we depend. There is a war to abolish fossil fuels which provide about 80% of the fuel needed to power our lives. This is best shown on the LLNL Energy Flow Chart below. Yes, it is expressed in BTU’s (British Thermal Units) and each BTU is equivalent to 778 foot pounds of work which may have been accomplished by muscle power 150 years ago, but now many politicians and leaders seem to have forgotten what conventional energy has made possible. The Zimmer plant and many other fine coal plants are being decommissioned and most demolished, without replacement of similar reliable, affordable generation capacity. I wrote on this before, here,here and here. So have many other people and respected organizations that understand generation by conventional fuels. Some references of these others are included below.
The 2023 LLNL Energy Flow Chart is not yet available. The most recent is for year 2022, shown below. Yes, 100.2 Quadrillion BTUs and only 4.96% of this Primary Energy was provided by wind and solar. This after decades of subsidies. Anyone that thinks wind and solar can replace the 92% conventional energy sources by 2030 or even 2050 are delusional. I wrote a previous article to discuss the “Impossibility of Achieving Net-Zero Carbon”. Then the Hawaii early adoption of the “Green New Deal” became public information. Hawaii is an “Energy Island” situated geographically with plenty of sunshine and wind. Their experiences with renewables has been very expensive and at reduced reliability. You can read more on the Hawaii experiences with renewable power here. Why? Hawaii is the perfect experiment to “Transition” to renewables with no Grid connection. Therefore, the availability, affordability and practicality is a perfect science experiment. Does anyone think electricity costs of over $0.40/kWH will improve the lives of Americans? Improve our economy and world competitiveness of manufacturing? I think not. EIA electricity costs by state here.
Americans use between 833,000 and 1,000,000 BTUs of energy each day to sustain our quality of life. There are some misguided leaders and politicians that are on a path to destroy the magnificent prime movers that power our lives.
Do you remember this poem from 1948?
First They Came, by Pastor Martin Niemoller
First they came for the Communists And I did not speak out Because I was not a Communist Then they came for the Socialists And I did not speak out Because I was not a Socialist Then they came for the trade unionists And I did not speak out Because I was not a trade unionist Then they came for the Jews And I did not speak out Because I was not a Jew Then they came for me And there was no one left To speak out for me.
The environmental activists and Democrats in the U.S. have an anti-Carbon policy that has nothing to do with protecting human health or the environment. It is an agenda for one world government and control of our lives. We could paraphrase Martin Niemoller’s poem with the words….“First they came for Coal”. Trust me friends, the Biden-Harris and Democrat Party Climate Policies are NOT based on protecting your health. The (D’s) hate fossil fuels, including natural gas. The U.S. is on a path this year, to depend on about 50% (interruptible pipeline supplied) Natural gas fuel for power generation. I do not think this is wise. The Zimmer coal plant is an example of true “Energy Storage”. A coal pile plus, Coal barges tied up adjacent to the plant can provide weeks or months of Primary Energy storage. Pipelines are vulnerable to harm, whether accidental or malicious. Battery storage systems are for hours at best. Think about Grid Security and the many threats, within our country from Deep State Regulators (EPA, BLM and more) and Politicians, as well as from criminal minded foreigners. There are many threats to the energy supply to the country we love. Threats to your conventional energy powered lifestyle…..Please, THINK before you vote.
On enemies, Sun Tzu said “Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril. When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself, you are certain in every battle to be in peril”.(1)
Most of the American people have no idea of who the enemies of coal are. In fact, I worked in the coal power industry for about thirty years before I became aware of some of them. The true facts are, that there are multiple entities and organizations that are enemies. Let’s call them “Carbon Hating Tribes”. These Tribes include rogue Bureaucrats (alphabet agencies of the U.S. Federal Gov’t) politicians, Well funded NGO’s, Public education K-12 plus many Universities, Public Broadcasting, Billionaires who do not understand the importance of Domestically produced Primary energy, U.S. elected politicians, the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, the MSM, the Entertainment Industry, celebrities and foreign participants that wish to weaken the U.S.A. I tried to capture some of the prominent anti Carbon Tribes in one meme which I have used in my public presentations. Most of the leaders and the members of these anti-coal Tribes, are NOT elected by the U.S. citizens . I have written several previous commentaries naming some of the individuals and organizations. (6, 207, 208) A Congressional report also outlined the escalation of the war on coal during the McCarthy years at EPA in the Obama Administration. (10)
More on the influencers of Net-Zero Carbon before. Here,here and here. After years of observations from the industry and research, I am of the strong opinion that the priorities and goals of “Climate Policies” are really not about improving human health or saving the planet. Thomas Shepstone captured my thoughts in his Substack entitled, “Energy Matters If You Value the Life You Now Have and Don’t Want to Live Under Socialism” (210)
Those of us that understand energy and electricity generation are a small minority that I estimate at 3% of the population. The “Good Guys” that understand energy and electricity generation are vastly outnumbered and out shouted. The enemies of coal are also the enemies of Liberty, Freedom and Capitalism.
Are You Worried About the Future of the U.S.A.?
This excerpt from my previous blog post and it is worth repeating. This is from my commentary entitled, “Are You Worried about the Future of the U.S.A.?” I posted this the day after inauguration day, January 21, 2021.
“The November 2020 Presidential Election to put it politely did not end with the best interests of America as a priority. President Biden disingenuously said at the inauguration, that he wants to unite the country. Then he went to the Whitehouse to sign Executive Orders to Cancel the foundation of our economic growth during President Trump’s four years. He is in the highest office of the world and he has plans to use the power of that office to do as much harm as possible to America. I don’t know why the Democrat Party, Liberals & the Mainstream Media can be so hateful of America. But they are.
Their Goals seem to be to Dismantle America’s #1 Position in the world as a Beacon of freedom and to harm or kill the largest Economy on the planet. Biden’s first step to weaken the U.S.A. is to reduce Domestic Energy Production. Reasonable cost energy is a huge component of world manufacturing competitiveness. Abundant production of reasonable cost energy also creates and sustains “Jobs” too! To put it into in a four letter word Mr. Biden may understand.
I will be perfectly honest, I am concerned for the future of America. Here are some of the reasons why I am concerned…...”Continue reading on blog post here
Background of The War on Coal
I have followed the war on coal since the 1990’s and the enemies of coal have gained strength and political power. Now with a rogue, out of control EPA and Biden as President, they have near Totalitarian Control over the entire government. In fact, Biden’s #1 Priority is/are the bogus, “Climate Policies” which have weaponized all of the government swamp Bureaucrats and all alphabet soup agencies including the EPA, BLM, SEC, Dept. of Defense, DOJ and more. This is a War on the American people and America’s productive capacity. This is a war that we must win. I have completed presentations to groups and written on the beginnings of the war on coal since about 1995 when it first dawned on me that these people in the EPA are trying to kill coal. Yes, it started during the Bill Clinton Presidency when Carol Browner was EPA Chief, and was escalated with Obama. (See the 2015 Congressional report on the Obama Carbon Mandate(10) , Here. ) Up to about 2012 about 50% of our electricity was generated by coal fueled power plants and I thought it was inexplicable and not possible that the government would wage a continuing war on the American Treasure of coal. Since 2012 over 102,000 MW’s of reliable, affordable, Dispatchable coal power generation capacity has been shut down. I presented this at the ENERUM energy Forum in Columbus, OH in 2022. (215) A modern, new clean coal plant has not been built since 2013, yet hundreds have been shut down and Demolished. (11, 12, 13, 14, 215) The two photos below are typical of how U.S. Utilities dispose of coal plants. This one is Genoa #3 of Dairyland Power, near Lacrosse, Wisconsin. Yes, it was old, but it should have been replaced with a new coal plant. The other is the Duke Sutton #3 which I was the manufacturer’s lead startup engineer in 1972.
The U.S. Government is Choosing Euthanasia for our Energy & Electricity Generation Infrastructure. Why?
I saw a bizarre story in the “Free Press” about a perfectly healthy young woman that has decided to end her life. The article title: “I’m 28. And I’m Scheduled to Die in May.“I did not make this up, read it here in the Free Press. After a dozen years of watching Obama, Biden, Swamp Bureaucrats, NGO’s, the MSM, Entertainment and energy ignorant but wealthy celebrities demonize coal….the planned death of Zoraya ter Beek seems similar. The big difference is, Zoraya Ter Beek has made her decision by herself. The American people are having Euthanasia of our energy and electricity infrastructure forced on us and likely to cause economic harm, pain, suffering and deaths of our American citizens. Being done in plain sight, eyes wide open and the perpetrators have about 50% of the voters support. Wake up America!
So much for “We the People” having a say into policies that impact all of us and all that we do. (Note the meme above of energy policy influences, none were elected by the people of the U.S.)Think about loss of power, loss of gasoline availability and cancellation of public transportation. Loss of heating, HVAC, refrigeration and just about everything we depend on, including food production and distribution. Dr. Robert Hargraves wrote an excellent article on “Energy IS the Economy“. It is here in Grid Brief, Nov. 2022. I live in Hilton Head, SC. The last time I remember losing power and having gasoline shortages was Hurricane Mathew in 2016. It has been very easy for many residents to forget what loss of power meant for just a few days. In February 2021, Texas suffered a massive statewide Blackout. That was in winter and cold kills more people than summer heat. The Texas Blackout killed a minimum of 246 people. I predict that, If the EPA and the Biden Administration is not reined in, more people will die in the near future. Why? Because of Bureaucratically enacted and foolish Climate Policies. Keep in mind electricity supply is comfortably easy to sustain during the spring and fall months. The challenge is PEAK Demand periods in the summer and winter. Perhaps that is one reason the EPA and the administration release these excessively restrictive rules in the spring and fall? I wrote my commentary on “Threats to the Grid” last month. It is here. An excerpt of that commentary listing the ten largest threats to Grid Reliability follow. These are based on my experience and my opinion:
The top 10 “Threats” are ranked, with the greatest risks first. All of these risks could be mitigated if energy and environmental policies were in effect the same as they were in 2012 when the U.S. had amongst the cleanest air in the industrialized and Developed world. There is a lot of blame to be spread around, but these policies are threats to Grid reliability.
Government Agency Climate Policies, EPA at the top, SEC, BLM, DOD, DOJ and all of government is wrongly applying “Climate First” policies rather than the Best policies for America and younger Americans to experience the “American Dream” as my generation did
Creation of RTO’s that absolved most utilities from planning for future electric generation growth, ie, plants can be shut down without a Utility being required to replace it with like, Dispatchable generation
Environmental Extremist/Activists that use enormous wealth to demonize carbon (and support (D) politicians against the Best interests of the U.S.A.
Wealthy Business people who fund NGO’s to Decarbonize the western world
The United Nations IPCC, Agenda 21, Agenda 30 and other so called “Climate Policies”
The World Economic Forum and the members who under the guise of saving the planet are forcing policies of De-Growth, De-Industrialization and Energy Poverty on all of the people of the western world, but not the BRICS, and other countries aligned with Russia and China
“Woke” or “Politically Correct” companies including electric Utilities and Co-Operatives that espouse solar and wind power as being capable of replacing coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy
Public Education, K-12 and Universities that promote climate scare tactics to sway public opinion toward accepting higher energy costs and reduced reliability of energy and electricity
World Bank, IMF, Large Banking and Investment companies that determine which infrastructure projects to finance
Terrorists or criminal acts of sabotage When I first wrote this commentary, I placed terrorsists as last in the hierarchy of risks. Now, with millions of illegal immigrants from dozens of countries, some that are enemies of the U.S. Perhaps the priority should be higher. It is in fact, a risk to Grid reliability and Green Policies have made the Grid more vulnerable to attack.
If you are interested, here are three previous blog posts on the beginning of the War on Coal and the some of the individuals and groups that have been involved. Here,hereand here. The IER has prepared an excellent report which enumerates on the vast energy resources within America’s borders. (6)
The American Coal Council Letter to Elected Officials-May 17, 2024
Emily Arthun, President of the American Coal Council prepared a letter for supporters to sign and submit to Congress. The letter is copied below and I support Ms. Arthun’s comments 100%! I have submitted to my elected officials:
“Dear Senator Graham, Senator Scott and Congresswoman Mace,
As you know, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently issued a number of new regulations, such as the Clean Power Plan 2.0 (CPP 2.0), the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), new rules around coal combustion residuals (CCR), and others that will have direct and detrimental impact on coal-fired power plants and the people that depend on them for reliable and affordable power. I urge you to hold agencies accountable for overreach and careless rulemaking which is intended to force coal plant closures and endangers the reliability of our electric grid.
Coal supplies affordable power when other sources cannot. It plays a critical role during times of intense demand, such as during cold snaps and heat waves, ensuring that the lights stay on and the grid remains reliable. According to recent reports, electric utilities have nearly doubled their forecasts of how much additional power they’ll need by 2028 given the torrid pace of data center development and other manufacturing demands that are putting new pressures on the grid. Despite the promise of renewable energy technologies, coal remains a critical energy source that must remain in use to prevent crippling energy costs to low-income families and to ensure energy shortages do not put unmanageable pressures on the grid.
The EPA has crafted a suite of rules specifically designed to force the closure of reliable and efficiently operating coal plants. These plants are the primary source of power generation in many states, and a significant source of grid-saving baseload power across the country. Further, the EPA issued these rules while conducting zero analysis of the collective impact of the new rules on grid reliability. EPA’s rules fail to account for the fact that electricity prices are increasing above the rate of inflation, demand is expanding, grid experts are already issuing warnings concerning plant closures, and there is no adequate replacement ready for the sorely needed, dispatchable generating capacity coal provides. Further shuttering coal generation will have a devastating impact to communities and our economy.
Thank you for considering my concerns, and I hope you will take swift action to support reliable and affordable energy for United States citizens and industry.”
I hope each reader will send a similar letter to your elected officials. The EPA and extremists are at War with the American People. We the People MUST win this final battle.
America is Blessed With Enormous Natural Resources of Critical Minerals and Including Coal, Uranium, Oil and Natural Gas. We Should Use them All!
Why would “We the People”...Not use the God given natural resources that America is Blessed with? A good question. My previous commentaries have expounded on the individuals, NGO’s, and others that have created the insane Net-Zero Carbon policies. Because I have written so much on this, I will not repeat my concerns and some would say, my rant. However, if you are interested, here are fourteen blog posts that attempt to show who and how the anti-American Climate Policies have come to be. The Biden Climate Policies must be reversed to win the War on America’s Productive capacity and the Best interests for the American People;
Remember the poem by Martin Niemoller to describe events leading up to the Holocaust? We could paraphrase and say: First they came for coal…..
FIRST THEY CAME
First they came for the Communists And I did not speak out Because I was not a Communist Then they came for the Socialists And I did not speak outBecause I was not a Socialist Then they came for the trade unionists And I did not speak out Because I was not a trade unionist Then they came for the Jews And I did not speak out Because I was not a Jew Then they came for me And there was no one left To speak out for me.
There is a parallel strategy by the enemies of coal. Today it is a war on coal, later they will (actually, they already are) attack natural gas and oil, your freedom of transportation, what you eat, how you cook and more.. Even worse, the forces against coal are also against the one zero carbon source of carbon-free dependable, Dispatchable Bulk Power, nuclear. The Sierra Club and other extremist NGO’s have been opposed to nuclear power. So, if it is not protecting human health or the environment, then what is their motive? My friend Thomas J. Shepstone has an answer in a Substack post we corroborated on titled, “Energy Matters If You Value the Life You Now Have and Don’t Want to Live Under Socialism“
Please Consider…..
Do yourself and all Americans a favor. If you already understand energy and electricity generation, help teach those that are not well informed. My estimate is that only about 3% of the American population really understands Primary energy, electricity generation and energy economics. Here are some examples of my attempts.(23, 30, 31)
If you are one of the 97% that does not understand energy and electricity generation, (or have been indoctrinated to demonize carbon) please ask me or anyone else who does understand energy to please take time to explain how government policies and cultural indoctrination has placed America on a path of self destruction.
Yours very truly,
Dick Storm, May 18, 2024
If you are interested in digging down for more research, then here are hundreds of references to support my claim that the EPA and Environmental Zealots have America on a Net Zero Path to Destruction:
The Great State of South Carolina is usually thought of as a “Conservative” state. However, when it comes to applying destructive “Climate Policies”, South Carolina is no more conservative than is California or New York. So, I thought I would repost my comments on the Santee-Cooper IRP.
It is my understanding that the major Utilities providing electricity to S.C. (Dominion Energy and Santee-Cooper) are planning to build a major natural gas fueled power plant at the site of the old Canadys Coal Plant, near Walterboro. I posted my thoughts on this on LinkedIn, here. Also, Thomas Shepstone created a Blog post on substack based on my LI post, entitled, “”A Balanced Energy Portfolio is Critical but South Carolina Doesn’t Seem Get It” . It is here. Thank you Tom!
Since this article was first published, announcements of new Data Centers and increasing EV charging has caused alarm that more generating capacity will be required than what was thought a year or two ago. Imagine that, when policies to “Electrify Everything” are applied, electricity Demand grows…..(23, 25 )
This is an update on my comments to the IRP development for my local Regional Utility, Santee-Cooper. The last draft IRP has been published for comment and the figure below shows the expected load growth up to 2042. This Figure is from page 28 of the IRP presentation updated in April 2023. Shockingly, there is serious planning to shut down all coal plants by 2034 without having a Balanced Portfolio of replacement Bulk Power Supply that is Dispatchable, affordable and of reliable supply. Some energy news/issues authors, when discussing energy policy, speak metaphorically of “Falling off the Cliff” The illustration of projected load growth for Santee-Cooper is an example of planning to “Fall off the Cliff” by (NOT) Balancing Bulk Power Supply & load Demand. (The graph reminds me of the old saying, “Failing to Plan is a Plan for Failure”. How? By not providing adequate new generation capacity as older, reliable, dependable and Dispatchable coal units are retired. This is typical all across the U.S. and the western free world(6,10,14,15,15,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,27)
I had hoped that the more conservative, level headed General Assembly of S.C. would have better sense than to follow the “Woke policy” of the U.S. government and other states. There is still time to wake up to reality. (5,8)
The slide below is from my ENERUM presentation, August 2022. Data and chart are from the July 2022 NERC Report.(10) This shows 102 GW of Dispatchable & Reliable coal and nuclear plants shut down since 2011. This is shown to illustrate the fact that Santee-Cooper seems to be following the same destructive path as other utilities in the U.S.
Can a Great 80+ Year Record of Reliability and Affordability be Sustained While Retiring Coal Plants? Is S.C. Self Sabotaging our Great Record of Reasonable Cost, Reliable Bulk Power Supply? Why? Can the Legislature Stop the Madness?
It is my understanding, that the management of Santee-Cooper has been directed to formulate a plan to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050. Anyone that knows me, knows that I do not agree with this plan and my posts on this blog and my public presentations have clearly shown my analysis of the madness of Net Zero Carbon & the War on Coal. I have written letters to Santee-Cooper, the Governor, Congressional representatives and my S.C. Senator. Most of these have been made public. Myself and others that have knowledge of energy and electricity generation know that the path to Net Zero carbon is not possible by 2050.(4,5,6,7,8)Not without severe disruption of our way of life, our economy, industrial output, controlling inflation and national security. It is important for our state to generate electricity reliably, with high quality frequency and voltage control, from Dispatchable generators to meet customer Demand and do this 24/7 affordably under all weather conditions…..This has been done by Santee-Cooper for almost 90 years. Thanks to the reliability of coal, nuclear, natural gas generation and hydro-electric. Why would the Legislature force this fine Utility to sabotage its great record? The chart below is from the 2020 IRP. This lists the Dispatchable, Reliable, Affordable generating assets that have created and continue to provide a great record. In essence, the apparent path of the IRP update is to replace 61% of the reliable coal generation with “Intermittent” solar and wind generation.
Path to Jeopardizing S.C. Bulk Power Affordability, Reliability and Dispatchability
The S.C. Legislature has directed Santee-Cooper through “Act 90” to meet a net zero carbon goal by 2050.
The slide above is copied from the Santee-Cooper IRP presentation. My understanding is, that this is the direction ordered by the legislature. A plan to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050. (22)
There is active planning to not only shut down the 1,150 MW Winyah coal plant in 2028 but also to shut down the 2,350 MW Cross Coal plant about five years later so that in 2034 all coal plants will be shut down. This is shown on the slides below. Shutting down all coal plants by 2034, in my opinion, will jeopardize the very favorable record of reasonable cost, reliable and Dispatchable electricity Bulk Power Supply that has become associated with Santee-Cooper’s great reputation. Even more importantly, South Carolina’s excellent record of attracting and keeping a thriving industrial base within this region. Electricity intensive industries such as aluminum and steel manufacturers/Recyclers have thrived here as manufacturers in other states have ended operations and ceded U.S. manufactured steel and aluminum capacity to China.
Let me digress and quote Vaclav Smil’s statement on decarbonization. From Professor Smil’s book, “How the World Really Works” This applies to S.C. Too!
“The real wrench in the works: we are a fossil-fueled civilization whose technical and scientific advances, quality of life, and prosperity rest on the combustion of huge quantities of fossil carbon, and we cannot simply walk away from this critical determinant of our fortunes in a few decades, never mind years. Complete decarbonization of the global economy by 2050 is now conceivable only at the cost of unthinkable global economic retreat, or as a result of extraordinarily rapid transformations relying on near-miraculous technical advances.” Smil continues….
But who is going, willingly, to engineer decarbonization while we are still lacking any convincing, practical, affordable global strategy and technical means to pursue the latter? What will actually happen? The gap between wishful thinking and reality is vast, but in a democratic society no contest of ideas and proposals can proceed in rational ways without all sides sharing at least a modicum of relevant information about the real world, rather than trotting out their biases and advancing claims disconnected from physical possibilities.”
I have written other posts on this Blog to express my thoughts on competition with China and the importance for America to reshore U.S. manufacturing. This my friends, is in our backyard, our neighborhood, our state. This is a fact as stated above10). Premature retirements of reliable coal plants has been occurring at an alarming rate all across the U.S. Do we have to follow the same foolish self sabotaging policies of NY, Hawaii, Germany, the UK and Texas? I hope not. (12,13,14,15,)
Future Bulk Power Generation Capacity, The Apparent Plan to Self Sabotage Reliable Bulk Power Supply
Expected Outcome of Adding Over 4,250 MW of Non Dispatchable, Intermittent Bulk Power Supply
If all of the coal plants are retired and the portfolio shown above is used. Her are my predictions, based on the experiences of Hawaii, California, Texas, Germany, Denmark and the UK.
California is thought by some in government to be a model for the U.S. with regard to renewable energy policy. I do not agree. Here is a recent post by the CEO of the Electric Power Research Institute on how the California electric load (as reported by CAISO) has morphed from a “Duck Curve to a Canyon Curve”. Here is a screenshot of Dr. Mansoor’s post:
The “Canyon” curve represents high renewable generation during the peak sunshine of the day where California has bragging rights to sourcing almost all of their electricity from solar collectors. This is great until folks come home from work, mom starts dinner in her totally electric home and Dad plugs in his EV for charging. By early evening, electricity demand skyrockets out of the Canyon and must, for the sake of reliability, be generated to meet demand from Dispatchable sources.
Battery storage is not Bulk Power Supply. Batteries store electricity they do not generate electricity. Batteries are capable, depending on the size of the installation, of providing minutes or hours of backup. The largest battery storage in the U.S. is the Vistra Energy, Moss Landing facility in CA. The CAISO load for April 27 is expected to be about 30,000 MW. Note the largest battery storage facility in the world, Moss Landing, is 1600 MW which is about 5% of the Demand and only capable of providing minutes or hours of stored electricity.
Here is another post from another energy expert on LinkedIn. This graphic shows the electric generation through the day which includes battery storage.
The Moss Landing Storage facility is rated at 400/1600 MW and is capable of storing excess renewable generation for hours so that it can be used as the sun sets and kick in as the “Canyon Curve” and CA power supply and Demand Curves above become reality of demand. Emphasis should be on “Hours” it is not capable of backup during a days long cold severe winter storm, such as NC and SC experienced over Christmas week, 2022. Another example is the 150 MW Battery storage designed for Queensland, Australia and an artists depiction below. This is from an essay reviewing the NY electricity future written on the Blog, Watts Up With That.
Battery storage such as shown above is very costly. For example, the 150 MW facility above is projected to cost $250/kWh. Therefore for 12 hours of storage for 450 MW, the cost would be about $1.35 Billion dollars. Keep in mind, this is for 12 hours storage of only 450 MW of power. Winter storms such as the Christmas 2022 storm lasted longer than 12 hours and even very conservative, steeped in energy expertise Duke Energy, also with a great reputation for reliable electric service, had rolling Blackouts. Ditto for TVA(18,19,20,21,22,23).
When the sun is not shining and the wind not blowing, then the generation must be purchased from neighboring Utilities or generated with Dispatchable natural gas generation. The plan shown above includes 4,316 MW of natural gas generation. This combined with the 322 MW of Summer Unit #1 nuclear power totals 4,638 MW. The wind generators, though intermittent, could generate another 400 MW to total 5,038 MW. The projections of up to 9,000 MW Demand in 2050 (according to Santee-Cooper projections) then will require additional Dispatchable generation which is likely to be natural gas CT’s or Combined Cycle facilities. Think for example of the uncertain growth of Electric Vehicles. If much of transportation is “Electrified”, then the high range projections of about 9,000 MW peaks can be expected in 2050 or before. So, why would we kill the coal plants that have served South Carolinians so well?
This reminds me of my experiences working for CP&L in the 1970’s when the manager of Fossil Plant Engineering pointed to an oil fueled CT and proclaimed to me, then a young engineer, “That young man is a monument to poor planning”. Yes, as CP&L (That was before CP&L merged with Florida Progress and was later absorbed by Duke Energy). I see history repeating here as so much faith in renewables today is somewhat like the high expectations of nuclear being “Too Cheap to Meter” beliefs of the 1970’s. However, nuclear power eventually delivered. Wind and solar are not capable of replacing coal, nuclear and gas fueled Bulk Power Generation. In the 1970’s the Bulk Power Supply gaps were made up with quickly installed, oil fueled CT’s. Today, thanks to reliable, affordable natural gas, the backup generation, when solar and wind cannot deliver, is gas fueled CT’s or Combined Cycle plants. This is doable and satisfactory… providing that pipelines are of adequate capacity and natural gas remains affordable and Federal Regulations on drilling, Hydraulic Fracturing, pipelines and fuel supply infra-structure is expanded as needed, when it is needed. The Federal Government is wrong on their war on carbon and the natural gas resources just may not be as abundant in 2040 or 2050 as they are now. Because, the Federal Government currently highly regulates exploration, drilling, production and transport of any fossil fuels. The uncertainty of future primary energy supply is why a Balanced Generation Portfolio is important. A Balanced Energy Portfolio will include nuclear, coal, gas and renewables.
Have the Importance of Reserves Been Forgotten?
Santee-Cooper is a Regional Utility. In other states, such as PA, OH, WVA, NJ & DE many utilities the size of Santee-Cooper have joined RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) such as the PJM Interconnection. In the Midwest it is MISO (Midwestern Independent System Operator) With RTO’s, the electricity generation is shared across state lines and with different utilities with separation of the ownership of the generating plants and the transmission and distribution of the Bulk Power. This has eliminated accountability for individual utilities such as Philadelphia Electric, Potomac Electric Power Company, Public Service of NJ, PP&L and others to plan for Reserve Generation capacity. Therefore, there is no accountability for lack of reserves. I presented examples in my ENERUM talk slides(6) . There is some talk of Santee-Cooper joining a similar RTO with the Southeast Electric Exchange. In my strong opinion and based on the references listed below and my experiences, Santee-Cooper should plan for their own (Our own) reserves. Reserve generation from others states was depended on Christmas week 2022 by TVA and Duke Energy. Two fine utilities, also with great records from the past. But, the reserves from neighboring states were not available due to Demand exceeding supply. Reserves of 15-20% have always been important for reliability and to keep generation costs reasonable by not requiring the startup of backup power generation using high cost fuels such as Diesel or spot market gas. Donn Dears has written several books on this. Here is a graph from the book, “Clean Energy Crisis”, on the Reserve generation that was planned in 2018. However, Texas Blackouts in 2021 killed over 200 people. The ERCOT planners in 2018 had performed due diligence as Santee-Cooper is doing now with well respected consulting services to perform computer analyses of planned reserve margins. Do we need to learn the hard way as Texans did in 2021?
Facts to be Consider regarding Electricity and South Carolina’s High Quality of Life
The experiences of other states and other countries should be considered. I cited the examples of California, Texas and Hawaii above. Much analysis has been put into the planning by some very smart engineers and planners. However, computer modeling of the “Future” weather, fuel prices, EV use, population growth, industrial growth and other uncertainties, will likely create a need for other sources than wind and solar renewables. Just as Texas learned in 2021 after performing similar planning.
Primary Energy and Secondary Energy
Each S.C. resident on average uses about 300 million Btus per year in Primary Energy. If the trend to “Electrify Everything” continues, then more of the energy use currently provided at reasonble prices for transportation and our high quality of life, will be substituted for by (Secondary Energy) electricity or hydrogen. Such as more EV’s as the government is forcing us to use. Therefore, the growth of electricity demand may be much greater than expected. Thus, my title which relates to potential 9,000 MW Demand in 2050.
Over 50% of South Carolina’s electricity has been provided by nuclear power for decades. SC is rated as #3 in the nation in nuclear power generation. Nuclear power has served SC citizens and industry well. Safe, affordable, Base load capable at 90+% capacity factor and proven. However, the great record and importance of nuclear is not discussed by politicians or even utilities. For example, Palmetto Electric promotes the use of “Green Power” when in fact, it is a small contributor to the total portfolio of power generation. Here is an example of “Green indoctrination” by a bill insert that misleadingly leads citizens to believe that most of their power is from renewables:
The reality of our future electricity generation is that nuclear is the most important and least carbon intensive fuel for electricity generation. The plan to expand the Summer nuclear plant with two additional units was a very good idea. However, it was not to be because of poor management, limited trained talent and failure by Bankruptcy of Westinghouse, the primary contractor. The planned new Pee Dee coal plant near Florence was also a good idea and provided for natural growth of generating capacity to meet Demand. Pee Dee, (600 MW coal plant) in my understanding, was killed because of outside influence of Environmental Extremists. Had the Summer Units 2 & 3 and the 600 MW Pee Dee Clean Coal Plant been built as planned, then together these three units would have provided 2,800 MW of Base Load plus reliable, affordable and clean, Dispatchable Bulk Power. Including some reserve generation capacity.
Is the Great State of South Carolina going to sabotage our future just because other countries and states are doing so? I hope not.
Conclusions
The“War on Carbon” is based on politics and corrupted science. It is about Socialism and not about protecting the environment. The South Carolina Legislature seems to be just as gullible of the green myth as the current Federal government leaders.
The UN-IPCC is also Politically Driven and Not based on protection of the environment or to provide for the best interests of the people of the world. The Paris Climate Agreement is not in the best interests of America, the free western world or even for protection of the environment. It is politically motivated.
The path to Net Zero Carbon is steadily weakening our country. It will eventually destroy America’s productive capacity, lower our standard of living and place national security at risk. It will hasten the decline of America and the Rise of China.
America requires 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year to sustain our quality of life. This is about 300 million BTUs per person, per year. Currently, after decades of subsidies, wind and solar provide about 5% of the total PRIMARY energy we use. Wind and solar cannot replace the other 95% of energy we need.
A Balanced Portfolio of Generating Capacity as is currently installed at Santee-Cooper generating plants, is the best path forward to sustain our high quality of life and economic prosperity. Reserve generation from dynamic generators is needed. Battery backup does not provide the same system voltage and frequency control as spinning reserve generator rotors do.
Electric generation planning in the 1970’s and 1980’s was better than today. There is no Energy Policy in America, there is only a decarbonization plan(4,5,6,7), there is no well thought out plan to replace the reliable and dispatchable generating capacity that is being shut down across the country. As during the 1970’s when nuclear units were late coming into service, the quickest available generating capacity was to install gas turbines. This is likely here in SC if the coal plants are retired before Dispatchable or Base Load replacement generation is installed.
Recommendations
Initiate a comprehensive Energy and Electricity Education program to provide 1. public education on energy, 2. Public School education on energy and electricity generation and 3. Public Technical/Trade School education to prepare youth for the construction workforce. Energy Education is recommendation #1 of the path forward. Public education is needed to reverse the myth that wind and solar can replace coal, gas and nuclear power generation. This is priority #1 because so many people are “Green Energy” indoctrinated.
Plan and continue to provide adequate Operations and maintenance funds for repairs and component replacements of the boilers, pumps, turbines and all of the equipment installed at the Cross Coal Plant. Keep the full 2,350 MW capacity so that it can be used until replacement generation is built and proven.
Construct the two unit 1,200 MW Pee Dee Coal plant that the components were purchased for in 2009, but never constructed.
Plan and begin construction on at least 2,000 MW of nuclear capacity. (as was planned for the Summer Units 2 & 3). Please re-read recommendation #1 above.
Plan and construct at least 1,750 MW of combined cycle gas plants
The coal, nuclear and gas plants 2,3 & 4 could replace the existing Cross coal plant capacity, thus continuing a “Balanced Generation Portfolio”
Summary
South Carolina can be an example of applied Common Sense Energy policies that can be a model for the U.S.A. and for the world. The current reasonable cost electricity in SC is amongst the lowest cost in the nation. Over 50% is generated from 4 nuclear plants with seven units. Four of these 7 nuclear units started up in the 1970’s. These four units operating licenses will expire in the 2030’s. They may be extended for another 20 or 30 years by the NRC but, plans should be made to construct new nuclear units for replacement of carbon free, Dispatchable, reasonable cost electricity.
Every time I present a course on energy and electricity generation the comments come back, “You did not discuss Climate Change and Decarbonization”. My response is, I am not an atmospheric scientist. I am an experienced power engineer. My beef with the current path toward Net Zero Carbon is, there is not an organized plan to replace the vitally important electric generation that has kept our country strong. If the politicians were really serious about reducing carbon dioxide emissions and “Sustaining” our high quality of living, then nuclear plants would be on a fast track to construction. After the Summer 2 & 3 failure, SC politicians are rightfully concerned about the financial risks. Plant Vogtle in GA is an example of a major budget overrun. Last cost estimate that I saw shows that Vogtle will cost $34 Billion and the original planned cost was less than half the ultimate cost. Also, it took ten years to just get one of the units running.
In my opinion and research, I feel the war on carbon is a plan initiated by the U.N. (including competitors/enemies of the U.S.A.) and Socialists that have an agenda other than clean power generation. If we wish to “Sustain our high quality of life“, then we need a reasonable cost, abundant and reliable electricity supply. Nuclear is the most accepted approach to achieving that goal. Three examples of applying a Balanced Energy Portfolio with a high percentage of nuclear are S.C. (1970-2030), Sweden and Finland. For research into why I believe the “War on Carbon” is political, not environmentally driven, I have included dozens of references below. My concern for Santee-Cooper and for America is to keep our Bulk Power Supply safe, secure, reliable and affordable. Also, sourced from a U.S. Supply-Chain.
The Supply-Chain of all of the future generation equipment, in an ideal scenario, would be from U.S. sources. Including manufacturing and construction talent. The workforce education is a weakness that I believe had part in the $9 Billion dollar Summer 2 & 3 construction debacle. We should learn from the past 50 years of electric generating history. The successes and the failures.
Respectfully submitted,
Dick Storm
References: (there are two sets of references below, SC Specific are second set)
Arshad Mansoor, CEO of EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) LinkedIn post, April 25, 2023 on the CAISO System. EPRI Post on the CAISO “Duck Curve changed to Canyon Curve” of Electric Load: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7056612841755181056-SCPK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
In My opinion and research, the Path to Net Zero Carbon is Based on Corrupted Science and Political Ploys to Promote Socialism and One World Government, Not to Save the Planet or to Improve the Environment. Therefore, to substantiate this claim the following references are provided:
Dick Storm's Thoughts on Energy, Education, Economic Prosperity & Environmental Blog 
