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Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Energy and Electricity Fundamentals, Fossil Fuels are Important, Geopolitics, Keeping America Great, Nuclear Power Generation, Regulations

Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 3: The Transition that Isn’t, from the Perspective of Minerals

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The Finland GTK organization has provided comprehensive and well researched information on the challenges of providing adequate minerals for the future. I recommend referring to their excellent work. (1) Also, the National Mining Association has excellent information on their web page. (2) The current slogan for the NMA is, “Minerals Make Life”. I would add, minerals, lots of minerals are also needed for the transition to more renewable power generation. Even then, as a friend pointed out to me, the exotic minerals do not produce electricity until they are incorporated into final products such as solar panels or wind turbines. Electricity produced from renewables cannot make the products needed by society. See Ron Stein’s explanation for more on the importance of crude oil. (8, 9)

Mining and Power

My background and expertise is in electric power generation, not mining. So, why am I writing this if I am not a mining expert? The reason is, although my experiences are in combustion and power, over the last 60 years or so I traveled the world with involvement in power plants and ore processing facilities that provided electricity and combustion systems required for the mining of aluminum, copper, coal and steel. The fact is that both internal combustion engine powered vehicles and EV’s, all require lots of copper, steel and aluminum. As technologies advance for more reduced carbon power generation and use, so will the requirements for Rare Earth minerals, Uranium as well as the more common metals. Aluminum requires the most electricity for smelting of all common metals, about 5 kWh per pound. Copper mining requires a fair amount of electricity as well. For example, I once worked at the Freeport-McMoran copper mine in Irian Jaya (now called West Papua) and it had 180 MW of conventional generation just to run the ore processing equipment. A good read is the Forbes Wilson book, “Conquest of Copper Mountain” which is better than fiction on the story of how one of the largest copper mines in the world came to be. (7)  Let’s get back to minerals and metals.

Time to Wake Up!

This is the title of the GTK report and I have taken the liberty of using some of the illustrations from GTK. The first slide in the GTK presentation shows the relationship of metal/minerals required by 2050 compared to the current world use of coal, oil and gas. My previous articles have elaborated on the need to supply the U.S. alone with 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy. Mr. Michaux provides the graphic below as another approach to communicating the need of minerals.

From GTK Time to Wake Up: https://www.gtk.fi/en/research/time-to-wake-up/

The metals and minerals needed for batteries alone is enormous. GTK shows the relationship of minerals used now and minerals needed as more power generation is produced from renewables and more electricity is used for transportation.

Energy is required to produce these metals. Lots of energy, both primary energy such as Diesel fuel as well as electricity which is secondary energy. For example, take a look at the 400 ton mine haul truck below. This modern and efficient truck uses a 4,000 hp Diesel engine for propulsion. Keep in mind that ore deposits are mostly dirt with a little bit of metal. Typical rich copper deposits are about 1 -2% copper. So, it takes about 50-100 tons of ore to produce one ton of copper. Plus, lots of energy for processing. I also worked at a gold mine in Nevada and there the gold content of the ore was 0.2 ounce per ton of dirt and rock. So, it takes huge haul trucks to move a lot of dirt and rock for these small percentages of metal.

Conclusions

The path to Net-Zero Carbon is not possible by 2050 for many reasons. The one limitation highlighted in this article is the need for enormous quantities of new metals and critical minerals. Also, huge amounts of energy to power the mining, processing and manufacturing. The U.S. government regulations are biased against mining as well as against conventional energy use. Our government seems to hate to use our natural resources. Another slogan used by the NMA that I saw bumper stickers at a Trona mine was “If it isn’t Grown, it is Mined”. See the Competitive Enterprise Institute list of 10,000 Commandments. (6) I invite the reader to visit the web sites of GTK and the National Mining Association. They are experts in minerals and metals and offer outstanding information on their web sites.

What about Nuclear Power?

Nuclear power generation provides the greatest amount of carbon free electricity. Nuclear is the most likely solution for reduced carbon electricity expansion.  Since the 1990s, despite ample domestic reserves, the U.S. has increasingly relied on imported uranium for use in nuclear power plants. Our near complete import reliance for uranium is concerning, including 60 percent of our uranium imports coming from Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The U.S. is currently heavily reliant on China for advanced rare earth materials needed for EVs, wind energy, and other advanced technologies, including those needed for national defense. This need not be the case, whether for uranium, rare earths or other energy materials. The NMA has further information on uranium, rare earth minerals and mining. (2, 4)

Yours truly,

Dick Storm, Feb. 7, 2024

References

  1. GTK Finland- “Time to Wake Up”: https://www.gtk.fi/en/research/time-to-wake-up/
  2. National Mining Association: https://nma.org
  3. Caterpillar 797F Haul Truck specifications: https://www.lectura-specs.com/en/model/construction-machinery/rigid-dump-trucks-caterpillar/797f-11691916
  4. Uranium sources for U.S. nuclear power generation, NMA: https://nma.org/2023/08/22/domestically-produced-uranium-2/
  5. EIA Where our Uranium comes from: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/where-our-uranium-comes-from.php
  6. Competitive Enterprise Institute, Government Regulations Review, 10,000 Commandments: https://cei.org/studies/ten-thousand-commandments-2023/#:~:text=Ten%20Thousand%20Commandments%20is%20the,the%20U.S.%20economy%20at%20large.
  7. A great read not only fascinating but also better than fiction! The story of the development of a copper mine in Irian Jaya, Indonesia: “The Conquest of Copper Mountain” by Forbes Wilson, 1981
  8. Ron Stein’s Energy Library, “Breezes and Sunshine Cannot Manufacture Anything, Electricity Cannot Exist Without Oil”: https://www.americaoutloud.news/todays-materialistic-world-cannot-survive-without-crude-oil/
  9. Ron Stein, “Breezes & Sunshine Cannot Manufacture Anything, Electricity Cannot Exist Without Crude Oil” : https://www.americaoutloud.news/breezes-and-sunshine-cannot-manufacture-anything-electricity-cannot-exist-without-crude-oil/
  10. Gatestone Institute on Leadership, “Boeing’s Missing Bolts”, Leadership at the top affects more than aircraft manufacturing Quality Assurance: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20394/boeing-leadership-crisis
  11. US Manufacturing “Boom” Misinformation, Daily Signal, Aug. 17, 2023: https://www.dailysignal.com/2023/08/17/bidens-manufacturing-boom-is-manufactured-malarkey/
  12.   How Washington Strangled American Manufacturing, EPOCH Times, Feb. 12, 2024, Federal Regulations undermine efforts to restore and expand American manufacturing : https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/how-washington-regulation-strangled-american-manufacturing-5585825?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport
  13. Daily Signal page with numerous Commentary articles on Gov’t &  Federal Regulations,  : https://www.dailysignal.com/tag/government
  14. Daily Signal with more Commentary on Federal Regulations: https://www.dailysignal.com/tag/regulations
  15. 22 Million Acres of Western land to be used for solar power, according to BLM, Such a waste of beautiful lands: https://www.hcn.org/articles/solar-energy-biden-plan-will-earmark-millions-of-acres-of-public-land-for-solar-development/
Basic Energy Knowledge, Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Education, Nuclear

Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 1: 79 Quadrillion Btus:The Enormity of the Fossil Energy Systems Providing Sustainable Lives

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Conventional energy is vitally important for all that we do. Missing from news reports to the general public is an honest communication to try to explain the huge and enormous energy systems that we depend on each day and the impossibility of replacing conventional energy with wind and solar. To start 2024, I thought I would post a series on the Hard Truths of Energy. I borrowed the title from the 2007 National Petroleum Council report, led by Chairman, Lee Raymond, retired CEO of ExxonMobil. Petroleum, natural gas and coal were important in 2007 and they remain important today. The “Energy Density” of fossil fuels makes them indispensable to sustain our economy and our high quality of life.(4)

Fossil Fuels Provide 79% of U.S. Primary Energy

79 Quadrillion BTUs is the amount of energy we depend on from fossil fuels. This is my attempt to try to explain and illustrate what 79 Quadrillion BTUs of energy looks like. The number 79 Quadrillion is from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore Laboratory for energy use in 2022.(2) Below is a short summary of the amount of natural gas, petroleum and coal that we used in the U.S.A. in 2022.

How Huge is a Quadrillion?

I have discussed the steady U.S. energy demand of 100 Quadrillion BTUs per annum for decades and yes, 100 Quadrillion BTUs is the amount of energy we use each year and it has been steady for over 20 years.(6) Until now, I did not take the time to explain the enormity of a Quadrillion BTUs. Here is what one Quadrillion BTUs of energy is equivalent to:

Coal= About 50 million tons of coal. This would be a coal pile that would be one mile wide, ten feet high and 3.3 miles long.

Oil= 7.14 Billion gallons. See Lee Raymond quote below on the quantity of motor fuels used in the U.S. in a year

Natural Gas= 1 Trillion cubic feet. This is equivalent to 200 aircraft carrier sized LNG Tankers. More on the enormity of an LNG ship below.

It is a fact, in America, we use and need about 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year.

36 Quadrillion BTUs of Petroleum

The single largest form of energy that we depend on is petroleum. About 20 million barrels per day. To visualize what 20 million barrels per day would look like, take a look at the photo of me and the 48″ Alyeska pipeline in Alaska. At its peak flow, about 2 million barrels per day flowed through the Alaska pipeline. So, to visualize 20 million barrels per day, picture in your mind, ten of these 48″ pipelines installed side by side.

The Alaska pipeline. Capacity about 2 million barrels per day. This is to help visualize what 20 million barrels per day would look like. Picture ten of these side by side. This is the enormity of the petroleum needed to supply America
Photo credit, Dick Storm circa 2007

Another illustration was offered by Lee Raymond, retired CEO of ExxonMobil when introducing the National Petroleum Council report “Facing the Hard Truths of Energy” in 2007. This explanation is offered by Mr. Raymond on You Tube, here. Mr. Raymond explained that the amount of motor fuels used in 2006 was about 150 Billion gallons. He then went on to state that if each gallon was placed in a one gallon tin can as he used in his youth to fill his lawnmower, the length of 10″ high cans, if placed end to end would circle the earth 1,000 times. That is the enormity of 150 Billion gallons of motor fuel. Mr. Raymond stated, (among other important points), “To replace current energy systems it will take a an enormous effort and a long period of Time.”(5)

The gasoline and Diesel motor fuels used in the U.S. has increased from the 150 Billion gallons consumed in 2007, to about 209 Billion gallons in 2022.

33 Quadrillion BTUs of Natural Gas

America used 33.4 Quadrillion BTUs of natural gas during 2022. Most of the natural gas used by the U.S. is distributed by a vast network of unseen, underground pipelines. Therefore, hard to visualize. So, let’s imagine that if we were to use all of our natural gas from shipments of LNG, (Liquified Natural Gas) how many huge LNG Super Tankers would it take? Such as the vessel Pan American shown below:

Pan American Specs: https://www.balticshipping.com/vessel/imo/9750232

This LNG tanker holds 174,000 cubic feet of liquified natural gas. LNG is 1/600th the volume of the gaseous state. The ship is over 977 feet long and the gross tonnage is 114,966. This is a ship about the size of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier. The energy equivalent of the cargo is about 6 trillion BTUs.

Now, imagine 6,600 ships like the Pan American above all lined up along the east coast. If the ships were placed touching, end to end, this would be about 1,220 miles of ships from New York City to south of Miami, Florida. That is the number of aircraft carrier sized LNG tankers that it would take to provide 33 Quadrillion BTUs of natural gas fuel. The 33 Quadrillion number is from 2022, the actual demand. The future will likely require more than 33.4 Quadrillion BTUs.

10 Quadrillion BTUs of Coal Power

Coal power has been important to the U.S. since the days of Thomas Edison, Nikola Tesla and George Westinghouse. The American electric system, referred to as the “Grid” was built on the foundation of reliable, affordable, domestically supplied and environmentally clean steam power generation fueled by coal. This took over 125 years to build and has been described by the Smithsonian as, “The Largest Machine Ever Built”. Video here. As recent as 2011 about 50% of America’s electricity was produced by steam turbines with steam generation from coal fuel. In 2022 the coal powered electricity generation dropped to about 20%. Much of the total electricity generation which was once powered by coal fuel, has been switched to natural gas fuel. 

As recent as 2011 America used about a billion tons of coal. In 2022 coal use declined by about 50% to about 512,000 million tons. Coal is important because of it’s enormous energy density. Another important fact, is that weeks and months of primary energy can be safely stored on site. Coal provides Dispatchable power and it is proven to be affordable. America has the largest coal reserves of any country. The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal.

How much coal is 512,000 million tons? This is enough coal to fill about 5,000,000 coal cars such as the one shown below.

https://www.bnsf.com/ship-with-bnsf/ways-of-shipping/equipment/coal-cars.html

How long would a single train of 512,000,000 tons of coal be? About 50,000 miles, long enough to circle the earth two times at the equator.

Conclusions

The so-called energy transition from conventional to wind and solar is simply not possible with today’s technology. As Mr. Raymond stated in 2007, changing from our conventional energy systems to something else is an enormous effort that will take. a long time.

Net-Zero Carbon by 2050 is impossible. A previous blog post is here.

The largest energy density and provider of the greatest quantity of carbon-free energy is nuclear power. However, replacing the existing electric generation with nuclear will take decades to accomplish and massive roll back of Federal Regulations. It took about 40 years to develop, manufacture, construct and perfect the 93 operating commercial nuclear units in 54 plants. These currently provide about 20% of America’s electricity. Most of these are now over 30 years old and the last two units built by Southern Company (2,200MW capacity) took over ten years to build. A previous blog post discusses “Without New Thinking on Nuclear Power, Net Zero Carbon is Impossible”, here.

Electrifying Everything is not possible, even electrifying transportation is not practical for every vehicle and if they were, much more electricity would be required.

The so-called energy transition from conventional forms of energy to wind and solar is impossible and attempting to do so by forced laws (such as the IRA), increased Regulations and the continuing war on carbon will destroy our country.

It is my hope and prayer that after the next election some sanity to energy policy will return.

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, January 11, 2024

References

  1. LNG Shipping Newsletter, 2015 by Riviera: https://www.rivieramm.com/opinion/opinion/lng-shipping-by-numbers-36027
  2. LLNL Energy Flow Diagram: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov
  3. EIA Coal fuel used in 2022, Nov. 2023: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61022
  4. 2007 National Petroleum Council report: “Facing the Hard Truths of Energy”: https://npchardtruthsreport.org
  5. Lee Raymond video at Council of Foreign Relations meeting in 2007: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYRH97e-nlM
  6. Dick Storm Blog, “America Needs 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary Energy each Year” March 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/16/back-to-basics-the-u-s-needs-100-quadrillion-btus-year-of-primary-energy/
  7. The Smithsonian Magazine, “The U.S. Electric Grid, The Largest Machine Ever Built”, you tube : https://www.smithsonianmag.com/videos/category/history/the-largest-machine-ever-built/
  8. Dick Storm Blog, “What Would it Take to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon by 2050” https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/12/what-would-it-take-for-net-zero-electricity-generation-by-2050/
  9. EIA Nuclear Plants in the U.S. : https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=207&t=21
  10. Dick Storm Blog, Oct. 2021 “The War on Carbon and How it Came to Be” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/10/16/the-war-on-carbon-how-it-came-to-be/
economic prosperity and energy, Energy, Electricity, Economic Prosperity and Environmental Protection, Energy, Politics and Economic Prosperity

The Importance of Energy to Power High Quality of Life, Part 1

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The citizens of North America, Europe, Japan and Australia are all accustomed to having abundant, reliable and reasonable cost energy and electricity. Not until a hurricane or extreme weather comes when power lines are downed, do Americans appreciate the importance of energy and electricity to power our way of life. My goal in this Blog is to show the relationship of energy to the Human Development Index and the inter-relationships of energy and our quality of life.

First let’s take a look at NASA’s composite photo of the “Earth at Night”. Remember the dark areas of the Planet as you then scroll through the next few graphs of economic activity and energy.

NASA, A Composite Photo by Satellite of the World at Night

Next, plots of energy and GDP for selected countries of the world. North Korea is not included in the data plot, but the satellite photo showing lights below the 38th Parallel clearly show the distinction of a centrally controlled Socialistic government and Economic Freedom of South Korea.

Total Energy in Total, Millions of Btu’s, consumed per Capita and Relationship with Human Development Index as a Measure of Quality of Life

Satellite view of the 38th Parallel separating North and South Korea

The next graph is from ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy and uses data from the U.N., World Bank and other respected references. Note the vertical axis showing energy use in kWh per person/year. Over 50% of the world’s population uses less than 2,000 kWh/year. Americans on average use about 13,000 kWh/year. The electricity is used for residential heating, cooling & cooking. Keeping it into perspective, nearly 1 Billion people of the world do not have access to any electricity. Note the chart which follows, below. This data from the UN, World Bank and the chart was prepared by “Our World in Data”.

There are almost 1 Billion people of the world that do not have access to electricity. If you go back to the NASA composite photo of the earth at night above, you can see by illumination the difference between the Developing countries and the Developed Countries.

So, how do citizens use energy to create better lives? The figure below shows the uses of Total Energy used in the U.S.A. Americans utilize on average about 100 Quadrillion Btu’s (BTU= British Thermal Unit). The 100.2 Quadrillion divided by 330 million citizens comes out to about 330 million Btu’s/person/year. This is total energy use and includes energy used for electricity generation, transportation, industrial production, heating, cooling, cooking.

The highest use of energy in the U.S.A. is for electricity production at 37% of our total. Next is transportation at 28.2%. When all uses of energy are totaled in Btu equivalents, then divided by the population, the average comes out to about 330 million Btu’s per person per year. This includes all uses of energy.

To illustrate what 330 million Btu’s is equivalent to our friends at Storm Technologies created the graphic below:

The energy equivalent of 330 million Brittish Thermal Units could be about 48 barrels of Diesel fuel, 64.5 barrels of gasoline, 14 tons of coal or 778 pounds of propane. This is what Americans use on average. Those of us that travel more or have larger homes use more than the average. An apartment dweller in a large city with no car will use less. Also figured into the average energy use is Industrial production. Primary metals such as aluminum, copper and steel use huge amounts of electricity to produce.

The Industrial production provides jobs and improved economic freedom. The next chapter will cover energy independence and how reasonable cost energy impacts world trade and competition.

Dick Storm