The Finland GTK organization has provided comprehensive and well researched information on the challenges of providing adequate minerals for the future. I recommend referring to their excellent work. (1) Also, the National Mining Association has excellent information on their web page. (2) The current slogan for the NMA is, “Minerals Make Life”. I would add, minerals, lots of minerals are also needed for the transition to more renewable power generation. Even then, as a friend pointed out to me, the exotic minerals do not produce electricity until they are incorporated into final products such as solar panels or wind turbines. Electricity produced from renewables cannot make the products needed by society. See Ron Stein’s explanation for more on the importance of crude oil. (8, 9)
Mining and Power
My background and expertise is in electric power generation, not mining. So, why am I writing this if I am not a mining expert? The reason is, although my experiences are in combustion and power, over the last 60 years or so I traveled the world with involvement in power plants and ore processing facilities that provided electricity and combustion systems required for the mining of aluminum, copper, coal and steel. The fact is that both internal combustion engine powered vehicles and EV’s, all require lots of copper, steel and aluminum. As technologies advance for more reduced carbon power generation and use, so will the requirements for Rare Earth minerals, Uranium as well as the more common metals. Aluminum requires the most electricity for smelting of all common metals, about 5 kWh per pound. Copper mining requires a fair amount of electricity as well. For example, I once worked at the Freeport-McMoran copper mine in Irian Jaya (now called West Papua) and it had 180 MW of conventional generation just to run the ore processing equipment. A good read is the Forbes Wilson book, “Conquest of Copper Mountain” which is better than fiction on the story of how one of the largest copper mines in the world came to be. (7) Let’s get back to minerals and metals.
Time to Wake Up!
This is the title of the GTK report and I have taken the liberty of using some of the illustrations from GTK. The first slide in the GTK presentation shows the relationship of metal/minerals required by 2050 compared to the current world use of coal, oil and gas. My previous articles have elaborated on the need to supply the U.S. alone with 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy. Mr. Michaux provides the graphic below as another approach to communicating the need of minerals.
The metals and minerals needed for batteries alone is enormous. GTK shows the relationship of minerals used now and minerals needed as more power generation is produced from renewables and more electricity is used for transportation.
Energy is required to produce these metals. Lots of energy, both primary energy such as Diesel fuel as well as electricity which is secondary energy. For example, take a look at the 400 ton mine haul truck below. This modern and efficient truck uses a 4,000 hp Diesel engine for propulsion. Keep in mind that ore deposits are mostly dirt with a little bit of metal. Typical rich copper deposits are about 1 -2% copper. So, it takes about 50-100 tons of ore to produce one ton of copper. Plus, lots of energy for processing. I also worked at a gold mine in Nevada and there the gold content of the ore was 0.2 ounce per ton of dirt and rock. So, it takes huge haul trucks to move a lot of dirt and rock for these small percentages of metal.
Conclusions
The path to Net-Zero Carbon is not possible by 2050 for many reasons. The one limitation highlighted in this article is the need for enormous quantities of new metals and critical minerals. Also, huge amounts of energy to power the mining, processing and manufacturing. The U.S. government regulations are biased against mining as well as against conventional energy use. Our government seems to hate to use our natural resources. Another slogan used by the NMA that I saw bumper stickers at a Trona mine was “If it isn’t Grown, it is Mined”. See the Competitive Enterprise Institute list of 10,000 Commandments.(6) I invite the reader to visit the web sites of GTK and the National Mining Association. They are experts in minerals and metals and offer outstanding information on their web sites.
What about Nuclear Power?
Nuclear power generation provides the greatest amount of carbon free electricity. Nuclear is the most likely solution for reduced carbon electricity expansion. Since the 1990s, despite ample domestic reserves, the U.S. has increasingly relied on imported uranium for use in nuclear power plants. Our near complete import reliance for uranium is concerning, including 60 percent of our uranium imports coming from Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The U.S. is currently heavily reliant on China for advanced rare earth materials needed for EVs, wind energy, and other advanced technologies, including those needed for national defense. This need not be the case, whether for uranium, rare earths or other energy materials. The NMA has further information on uranium, rare earth minerals and mining. (2, 4)
A great read not only fascinating but also better than fiction! The story of the development of a copper mine in Irian Jaya, Indonesia: “The Conquest of Copper Mountain” by Forbes Wilson, 1981
I was recently invited to a local civic club and my host asked that I focus on the limitations of minerals and difficulty of replacing conventional fuels with wind and solar. Here are some of the slides and my explanation which I used to attempt to drive the point home: The U.S. does not have an orderly and rational energy transition plan only a “War on Carbon”. In my opinion, conventional energy will be needed far beyond 2050 if we are to continue our high quality of life and freedom of travel.
Here are some of the challenges and impracticality of replacing fossil fuels with carbon free energy. Let’s start with food and agriculture. About 1% of the total primary energy used in the world is consumed for producing fertilizer. Ammonia fertilizer is incredibly important to food production. Vaclav Smil has researched and written that if production of synthetic ammonia fertilizer was stopped, then about 50% of the world’s population could not be fed.
The figure above shows a modern farm tractor powered by Diesel fuel. The table below shows the sources of 94% of our primary energy used during the year 2022. Wind and solar provided less than 6% of our Primary Energy.
The bottom line on primary energy is simply this.
Over 90% of our primary energy is provided by conventional sources and that if reduced carbon emissions are really to be achieved, there needs to be a rational path forward. Not the irrational and unthoughtful path of demonizing and attempting to ban fossil fuels. Let’s move on to see why Net-Zero Carbon is impossible to achieve by 2050 using the current policies from Washington. That is, impossible if we are still to keep our freedom and our high quality of life.
Just as a reminder: Electricity is Secondary energy. It takes Primary energy to generate electricity. Forms of primary energy are nuclear, natural gas, coal, biomass, hydro plants, wind, geothermal and solar. (1, 26 & 27)
What Would it Take to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon by 2050?
My friend Donn Dears wrote numerous books on the destructive war on carbon. In fact, he was the inspiration for me to start this blog. Unfortunately, Donn recently passed away, but he left a legacy of books on energy education for us to refer. His last book published in 2023 is “Clean Energy Crisis”. In this book, Mr. Dears lays out the facts of what it would take to replace conventional fossil fuel energy. In chapter 8, here is his basic analysis:
It should be pointed out that the above refers to replacement of Primary energy from fossil fuels for electricity generation to be replaced by carbon free sources. Reminder: Bulk Power electricity requires about 37% of Primary energy. The other 63% of primary energy is used for motor vehicle use, shipping, Industrial production, jet fuel, heating of homes, commercial buildings, cooking, food production and agriculture.
The Reality of the transition to renewables, according to Mr. Dears is summarized in two statements:
It is impossible for the United States to achieve Net-Zero carbon by 2050.
CO2 is not an existential threat to mankind.
These two statements are direct quotations from chapter #8 of “Clean Energy Crisis” by Donn Dears.
Conclusions
Here are some of the Reasons why I also believe achieving Net-Zero Carbon is Impossible by 2050:
There arelimited mining and production facilities to produce the Metals to Build Batteries and EV’s
Wind whether offshore or on Land Requires Enormous Acreage (22)
Wind & Solar Provide Intermittent & Non Dispatchable Generation
Battery Electricity Storage Technology is Not yet Commercially Available for Long TermStorage of Bulk Power
U.S. Regulations on Mining & Manufacturing are Too Restrictive
U.S. Heavy Manufacturing Cannot Ramp Up in Time. The American manufacturing facilities for nuclear power plant components has been lost and needs to be rebuilt. This will take decades.
China controls much of the critical minerals, materials and manufacturing
The required number of new nuclear power plants cannot be designed, manufactured and constructed by 2050
Hopefully, the American People Willbecome informed and vote for energy wise leadership that will implement practical and science based energy and climate policies
The current path to Net Zero Carbon is a fictional delusion driven by the largest scientific hoax in history.
Conventional energy is vitally important for all that we do. Missing from news reports to the general public is an honest communication to try to explain the huge and enormous energy systems that we depend on each day and the impossibility of replacing conventional energy with wind and solar. To start 2024, I thought I would post a series on the Hard Truths of Energy. I borrowed the title from the 2007 National Petroleum Council report, led by Chairman, Lee Raymond, retired CEO of ExxonMobil. Petroleum, natural gas and coal were important in 2007 and they remain important today. The “Energy Density” of fossil fuels makes them indispensable to sustain our economy and our high quality of life.(4)
Fossil Fuels Provide 79% of U.S. Primary Energy
79 Quadrillion BTUs is the amount of energy we depend on from fossil fuels. This is my attempt to try to explain and illustrate what 79 Quadrillion BTUs of energy looks like. The number 79 Quadrillion is from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore Laboratory for energy use in 2022.(2) Below is a short summary of the amount of natural gas, petroleum and coal that we used in the U.S.A. in 2022.
How Huge is a Quadrillion?
I have discussed the steady U.S. energy demand of 100 Quadrillion BTUs per annum for decades and yes, 100 Quadrillion BTUs is the amount of energy we use each year and it has been steady for over 20 years.(6) Until now, I did not take the time to explain the enormity of a Quadrillion BTUs. Here is what one Quadrillion BTUs of energy is equivalent to:
Coal= About 50 million tons of coal. This would be a coal pile that would be one mile wide, ten feet high and 3.3 miles long.
Oil= 7.14 Billion gallons. See Lee Raymond quote below on the quantity of motor fuels used in the U.S. in a year
Natural Gas= 1 Trillion cubic feet. This is equivalent to 200 aircraft carrier sized LNG Tankers. More on the enormity of an LNG ship below.
It is a fact, in America, we use and need about 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year.
36 Quadrillion BTUs of Petroleum
The single largest form of energy that we depend on is petroleum. About 20 million barrels per day. To visualize what 20 million barrels per day would look like, take a look at the photo of me and the 48″ Alyeska pipeline in Alaska. At its peak flow, about 2 million barrels per day flowed through the Alaska pipeline. So, to visualize 20 million barrels per day, picture in your mind, ten of these 48″ pipelines installed side by side.
Photo credit, Dick Storm circa 2007
Another illustration was offered by Lee Raymond, retired CEO of ExxonMobil when introducing the National Petroleum Council report “Facing the Hard Truths of Energy” in 2007. This explanation is offered by Mr. Raymond on You Tube, here. Mr. Raymond explained that the amount of motor fuels used in 2006 was about 150 Billion gallons. He then went on to state that if each gallon was placed in a one gallon tin can as he used in his youth to fill his lawnmower, the length of 10″ high cans, if placed end to end would circle the earth 1,000 times. That is the enormity of 150 Billion gallons of motor fuel. Mr. Raymond stated, (among other important points), “To replace current energy systems it will take a an enormous effort and a long period of Time.”(5)
The gasoline and Diesel motor fuels used in the U.S. has increased from the 150 Billion gallons consumed in 2007, to about 209 Billion gallons in 2022.
33 Quadrillion BTUs of Natural Gas
America used 33.4 Quadrillion BTUs of natural gas during 2022. Most of the natural gas used by the U.S. is distributed by a vast network of unseen, underground pipelines. Therefore, hard to visualize. So, let’s imagine that if we were to use all of our natural gas from shipments of LNG, (Liquified Natural Gas) how many huge LNG Super Tankers would it take? Such as the vessel Pan American shown below:
This LNG tanker holds 174,000 cubic feet of liquified natural gas. LNG is 1/600th the volume of the gaseous state. The ship is over 977 feet long and the gross tonnage is 114,966. This is a ship about the size of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier. The energy equivalent of the cargo is about 6 trillion BTUs.
Now, imagine 6,600 ships like the Pan American above all lined up along the east coast. If the ships were placed touching, end to end, this would be about 1,220 miles of ships from New York City to south of Miami, Florida. That is the number of aircraft carrier sized LNG tankers that it would take to provide 33 Quadrillion BTUs of natural gas fuel. The 33 Quadrillion number is from 2022, the actual demand. The future will likely require more than 33.4 Quadrillion BTUs.
10 Quadrillion BTUs of Coal Power
Coal power has been important to the U.S. since the days of Thomas Edison, Nikola Tesla and George Westinghouse. The American electric system, referred to as the “Grid” was built on the foundation of reliable, affordable, domestically supplied and environmentally clean steam power generation fueled by coal. This took over 125 years to build and has been described by the Smithsonian as, “The Largest Machine Ever Built”. Video here. As recent as 2011 about 50% of America’s electricity was produced by steam turbines with steam generation from coal fuel. In 2022 the coal powered electricity generation dropped to about 20%. Much of the total electricity generation which was once powered by coal fuel, has been switched to natural gas fuel.
As recent as 2011 America used about a billion tons of coal. In 2022 coal use declined by about 50% to about 512,000 million tons. Coal is important because of it’s enormous energy density. Another important fact, is that weeks and months of primary energy can be safely stored on site. Coal provides Dispatchable power and it is proven to be affordable. America has the largest coal reserves of any country. The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal.
How much coal is 512,000 million tons? This is enough coal to fill about 5,000,000 coal cars such as the one shown below.
How long would a single train of 512,000,000 tons of coal be? About 50,000 miles, long enough to circle the earth two times at the equator.
Conclusions
The so-called energy transition from conventional to wind and solar is simply not possible with today’s technology. As Mr. Raymond stated in 2007, changing from our conventional energy systems to something else is an enormous effort that will take. a long time.
Net-Zero Carbon by 2050 is impossible. A previous blog post is here.
The largest energy density and provider of the greatest quantity of carbon-free energy is nuclear power. However, replacing the existing electric generation with nuclear will take decades to accomplish and massive roll back of Federal Regulations. It took about 40 years to develop, manufacture, construct and perfect the 93 operating commercial nuclear units in 54 plants. These currently provide about 20% of America’s electricity. Most of these are now over 30 years old and the last two units built by Southern Company (2,200MW capacity) took over ten years to build. A previous blog post discusses “Without New Thinking on Nuclear Power, Net Zero Carbon is Impossible”, here.
Electrifying Everything is not possible, even electrifying transportation is not practical for every vehicle and if they were, much more electricity would be required.
The so-called energy transition from conventional forms of energy to wind and solar is impossible and attempting to do so by forced laws (such as the IRA), increased Regulations and the continuing war on carbon will destroy our country.
It is my hope and prayer that after the next election some sanity to energy policy will return.
A lot has been written on minorities and DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion). There is not enough written on the minorities that practice a good work ethic, work hard to invent products, create new processes and techniques and accomplish positive and good results. Therefore, I thought I would follow up my recent article on “Israel, Defender of Western Civilization” to elaborate on some of the over achievers from western civilization that have helped advance science and quality of life for all.
I usually write on energy and electricity generation. However, the evil and barbaric terrorist attacks on Israel October 7th inspired me to reflect on the positive contributions of the minority of very creative & productive people during the last 150 years.
Did you ever think about what western civilization has provided for the 8 Billion people of the world? The Judeo-Christian values of western civilization are at the root of the ever improving quality of life on our planet. The values that we appreciate have been a prerequisite for many accomplishments that have benefited all of the people of the world. That is all of the people of the world can benefit from the products and advancements mentioned below, providing that they live in a free country. There are many countries that do not have the freedom of the western world as we Americans do.
Capitalism should not be underestimated for it’s capability to fund large projects for Mining, Energy production and Manufacturing. Also to promote and share the high quality of life experienced by western civilization.
In my lifetime, my parents successfully prepared me to live the “American Dream“. The definition I like from the Mirriam Webster Dictionary:
A happy way of living that is thought of by many Americans as something that can be achieved by anyone in the U.S. especially by working hard and becoming successful.(12)
Lost in the News reports are the mutually beneficial advantages of individuals and corporations contributing to industrial development on a Global Scale, as a result of their creativity and hard work….. After I thought about Israel being the leading defender of western civilization, it occurred to me that it may be of interest for some readers to review Globalization and the positive contributions of western civilization to the improvements in the quality of life to billions of people around the world.
The “American Dream” was described above and I for one give thanks to God for my good health and the satisfaction of using my good work ethic during my career. However, when Israeli’s are compared to Americans with regard to work ethic, creativity, business acumen, intellectual achievements and accomplishments, we should all be humbled by what they have accomplished. Especially considering that the state of Israel is surrounded by hundreds of millions of people who (a gross under statement) do not like them very much. The illustration below shows the reality of tiny Israel’s huge neighboring countries. Israel is about the size of the state of New Jersey. The photo is from a screenshot of a flight on El-Al.
Prominent Individuals That Have Improved the Quality of Life for Humanity
These are some of my choices of the heroes the last 150 years or so. I learned more about these folks when I was preparing to present my course,“The History of Energy and Electricity Generation” course for USCB-OLLI.(15)
Nickoluas Otto, Inventor of the four cycle Internal Combustion engine
Karl Benz, Inventor of the first Internal Combustion engine powered automobile
Rudolf Diesel, Inventor of the Compression Ignition, Diesel engine
Thomas Edison The most prolific inventor of western civilization
Nikola Tesla Polyphase motors and 3 phase advanced transformers
George Westinghouse One of America’s best engineers and founder of Westinghouse Electric
Charles Martin Hall Inventor of the electrolytic method of producing Aluminum smelting. The process for production of aluminum from the alumina powder refined from Bauxite ore
Henry Ford Brought mass produced cars and high paying factory wages to citizens so they could enjoy the American Dream. Also, reasonable priced tractors for farmers to mechanize agricultural production.
Willis Carrier Inventor of modern air conditioning. (Living in South Carolina, A/C is one of my favorites)
Fritz Haber, Invented the “Haber-Bosch Process” for producing synthetic ammonia for agricultural use. His invention made it possible to feed about half of the people living on the planet today. Yes, according to Professor Vaclav Smil, about 4 billion people one the planet could not be fed adequate food without ammonia fertilizer.
Carl Bosch, Using principles from Fritz Haber’s discovery, Bosch devised a method for separating large quantities of hydrogen from a hydrogen-carbon monoxide mixture. In 1909, under Bosch’s leadership, BASF acquired the patent rights for Fritz Haber’s ammonia process and began developing the equipment and refining the process needed for mass production. By 1913, the BASF works at Oppau, Germany began the first worldwide production of ammonia.
In January 1930 Frank Whittle, submitted a patent application for a gas turbine for jet propulsion. His engine, which had a single-stage centrifugal compressor coupled to a single-stage turbine, was successfully bench tested in April 1937.
Germans Hans von Ohain and Max Hahn patented a jet propulsion engine of their own in 1936.
Igor Sikorsky invented the helicopter about 1939
Wernher von Braun, Leader in rocket technology and space exploration. Led NASA’s rocket propulsion development
Robert Hutchings Goddard, Inventor of Solid Fuel Rockets
Alexander Fleming invents Penicillin
Walter H. Brattain, The Transistor, developed by Bell Laboratories in the 1940s.
Hyman G. Rickover, A Polish Jew that immigrated to America in 1900 and became an Admiral in the U.S. Navy. The Father of nuclear powered ships, submarines and commercial nuclear power production.
Jonas Salk Inventor of Polio vaccine
Norman Borlaug, Agricultural advancement giant that led the “Green Revolution” of the 1960’s. Like Fritz Haber, he had a lot to do with advancements in the science of agriculture to create the capacity to feed many of the people of the world.
Milton Friedman, A champion and leader in government administration of Economics and Capitalism. Also, improvements in public education with Charter Schools
Forbes Wilson, Leader of Freeport McMoran in the 1960’s and led to the development of one of the largest copper mines in the world in Iran Jaya (West Papua) New Guinee
Elon Musk Self made rocket scientist and business genius
Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak Apple computer (1976) Founders that created the market for personal computers that we all use today
MIT Professor Richard Lindzen Atmospheric and Climate Scientist(16)
The list of inventors and innovators from western civilization is long. These 26 are some that I became aware of and came to admire during my career.
What About the Eastern Civilization?
The Axis of Evil at war with Israel and Ukraine includes Russia & Iran with the support of China. In my opinion. The United Nations also seems to be biased toward HAMAS, a terrorist organization. The support of HAMAS and anti Jewish Semitism by citizens, Universities and groups within the U.S.A. is very disappointing. Therefore, the inspiration for this article is to highlight the positive and beneficial advances for Humanity that were created by westerners. Some may not be aware of the positive contributions from the very productive minority of people living in western civilization. Israel and many of the Jewish people live in other countries of western civilization and the list above of inventors and productive citizens is about 20% Jewish people. Let’s look at the demographics of the world…..
What if the World’s People Were Compressed into a Village of 100? What would it look like?
Back in the late 1990’s someone created a one page summary of the demographics of the people of the world and presented it as a bullet list. It is copied below. This has been updated by 100 People.org (11)
If the World were 100 PEOPLE:
50 would be female 50 would be male
25 would be children There would be 75 adults, 9 of whom would be 65 and older
There would be: 60 Asians 16 Africans 14 people from the Americas 10 Europeans
31 Christians 23 Muslims 16 people who would not be aligned with a religion 15 Hindus 7 Buddhists 8 people who practice other religions (Note: People of the Jewish faith are so small, 0.16% that they are not even mentioned)
12 would speak Chinese 6 would speak Spanish 5 would speak English 4 would speak Hindi 3 would speak Arabic 3 would speak Bengali 3 would speak Portuguese 2 would speak Russian 2 would speak Japanese 60 would speak other languages
86 would be able to read and write; 14 would not
7 would have a college degree 40 would have an Internet connection
78 people would have a place to shelter them from the wind and the rain, but 22 would not
1 would be dying of starvation 11 would be undernourished 22 would be overweight
91 would have access to safe drinking water 9 people would have no clean, safe water to drink
Showing the world’s people on a global map is also enlightening to show graphically how the statistics from above apply in today’s world:
Thinking About The Resources of the World and How Western Civilization Has Helped All of the People of the World to Improve the Quality of Life. About 20 years ago I was asked by the Pastor of our church to provide a presentation of how Americans have helped people of the world based on my experiences of working in many countries of the world. My experiences were mostly related to mining and electric power generation. So, here below are a few slides from that presentation:
The world’s resources are spread across the planet. There is enough oil, coal, uranium, copper, cobalt, iron, nickel, bauxite, lithium, chromium, gold, rare earths and other minerals for modern society to function. The key to sharing is to apply the intellectual resources of those who have the intellectual capacity and capital (most are from western civilization) to help the Developing countries of the world to produce and share their natural resources. By combining the natural resources of Developing countries with the Industrial know how and Capital of the Developed world, people can be lifted from poverty. From Biblical principles and following the “Golden Rule” from Jesus’ teaching, “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you”. For the mutual benefit of all…..
French design rail car dumper in west Africa which lifts bauxite ore to the top of the ore crushing and processing facility.
Dried and crushed Bauxite ore for shipment to the west for refining and smelting into alumina and aluminum.
Example of quality of life before bauxite mining and mutually beneficial trade with the west. The photo below was taken about 2003 when refugees from Senegal were immigrating to Guinee to flee a war zone. Yes, I took this photo of a family of four with two water-buffaloes and all of their belongings in one mini van. Fleeing for their lives, with some of the individuals hoping to obtain work at the bauxite mine or other industry in the neighboring country of Guinee.
Moving on to the South Pacific, copper mining began in West Papua about 1965. Thanks to Freeport McMoran’s Investment of both Intellectual expertise and investment Capital. West Papua, then called “Irian Jaya” is north of Australia.(13)
As in Suriname, Guinee (west Africa) and many other countries of the world, the mutual benefits of western civilization and the resources of the Developing world are realized for the benefit of all of humanity. The Liberty Energy ESG Report on “Bettering Human Lives” comes to mind. (14)
From the Forbes Wilson book, “Conquest of Copper Mountain”
Christian missionaries lived with the people of Irian Jaya before Freeport McMoran came to help develop the copper mine. The help of the missionary was very beneficial in smoothing relations and achieving cooperation from the native people on this remote island.
These are just a few examples of how the cooperative effects have improved the quality of life for many people of the world. Not surprisingly, many of the advancements in quality of life are related to the use of energy. In the examples of aluminum and copper production, enormous amounts of energy are required to process ore into metals. Especially aluminum which requires about 5 kWH to produce one pound of aluminum from alumina powder. This is not including the energy to process bauxite ore into alumina powder and transport it across oceans. This is just as a reminder of the relationship of energy and economic prosperity, three slides from an OLLI program I presented on the importance of energy are copied below. (15)
Western Civilization Has Been Very Good for All of the People of the World
The Judeo-Christian values, work ethic and productive capacity has improved life for all of the people of the world. Over-represented in the list of productive citizens of the world are Jewish people. The list of 26 randomly picked above are from my personal experiences. These are about 20% Jewish people. However, when Nobel prizes in medicine and science are considered, Jewish people have earned a disproportionate share considering their worldwide population of less than 0.2%
The point is, massive protests in cities have taken place supporting HAMAS and the PLO. These protests, in my opinion, are basically protests against western civilization. Yet, the major contributions to society and the accomplishments of westerners and Israel are very positive. To my knowledge, I cannot think of anything invented for good, for Humanity or for improving the quality of life by HAMAS or the PLO. These organizations are basically against western civilization and much that we stand for.
Why aren’t University Professors standing up for Western Civilization? The Main Stream Media? Entertainment? Celebrities?
Why Anti-Semitism? Is it Envy?
Charlie Munger, Vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway recently passed away after living 99 productive years. Mr. Munger has offered his advice on many topics to many and I for one, appreciate his sharing of that wisdom. One point he has made on several occasions is discussing “Greed and Envy”. Mr. Munger offered his thoughts on wealth inequality and greed in this video here. Where he suggests that many wars and divisions between people come as a result of envy. Could that be one of the roots of antisemitism? The Jewish people have, at least in my lifetime, always been very innovative, creative and intellectually gifted.
It is my hope that University leaders, Journalists in the MSM and celebrities will start reporting and influencing the public on the “Good” that western civilization has brought to the world and recognize that the people of Israel have done more than their fair share of helping improve the quality of life for all of humanity.
100 people Statistics website: https://www.100people.org/statistics-100-people/Sources: 2016 – Fritz Erickson, Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs, Ferris State University (Formerly Dean of Professional and Graduate Studies, University of Wisconsin – Green Bay) and John A. Vonk, University of Northern Colorado, 2006; Returning Peace Corps Volunteers of Madison Wisconsin, Unheard Voices: Celebrating Cultures from the Developing World, 1992; Donella H. Meadows, The Global Citizen, May 31, 1990.
Sources of Primary Energy for Electricity Generation, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial and Residential uses. Electricity generation was described in part 1, here. The purpose of this article is to describe where the other 63% of the Primary Energy is used and why gasoline, Diesel, jet fuel, natural gas remain important to sustaining our high quality of living, food production (91,92) and freedom to travel. The Primary energy consumed numbers below are from the LLNL energy flow chart for 2022, published a few weeks ago.(1)
Precious articles that I have written cover the importance of energy in our lives. In particular, how each of us uses between 833,000 and a million BTUs of energy each and every day to power our lives. Here. Also on how conventional forms of energy provide most of the energy we depend on every day. Here and Here.
The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has provided Energy Flow Diagrams for the Department of Energy for many years. The chart below shows the updated, total Primary energy flows for the year 2022. A green oval surrounds the 5.7% Primary energy provided by wind and solar. Yes, that is right, wind and solar together provided less than 6% of the total PRIMARY energy used by Americans during all of 2022.
The fact is, after many years of government subsidies, wind and solar are still single digits of the total primary energy sources to power our lives. America depends on over 94% of our total primary energy from conventional forms of primary energy. 79% from fossil fuels. The chart below is from the U.S. Dept. of Energy EIA website.
The topic for this article is Fuel Diversity. The Conventional primary energy chart 1776-2022 shows the progress through history of how our quality of life, industrial production and economy improved to become better and better. From the days of the 1960’s when the theme was “Living Better Electrically”(93) up until current time, more energy was needed to replace muscle power for these improvements in quality of life and freedom. Here. Then, as noted in previous articles, since about the year 2000, America has needed and used a steady 100 Quadrillion Btus of total primary energy. In fact, 2022 was exactly 100.3 Quadrillion Btus. This primary energy can be sourced from a variety of fuels for electricity generation and for some other uses as is shown on the EIA chart above. However, when transportation is considered, the choices of substitution of fuels becomes more dependent on energy density. In other words, Jet Fuel cannot be replaced by nuclear, coal or natural gas.
Ron Stein wrote an excellent article on the importance of oil and what if we returned to life as it was in the 1800’s? It is here. Some excerpts from his CFACT article entitled, “What if We Went Back to a Fossil Fuel Free Society like the 1800’s?”:
The pre-1800s, when the world had no fuels other than wood, dung, and crop waste and used animals for transport. (Kindly refer to the chart above, Fuels used 1776-2022)
A food crisis in which billions will die. Fossil fuels are used to plant, harvest, process, refrigerate, deliver, and cook food for most of the 8 billion people living on earth. And for the plastic to keep it safe and fresh a lot longer.
A forest and wildlife crisis as billions go back to using wood as their primary cooking and home heating fuel. Cutting down forests. The air would be far dirtier because of burning wood for fuel.
There would be no products that are based on oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil, coal, and natural gas! Such as life-saving medical equipment, plastics, many chemicals that make our lives better, and just about everything we take to be modern, such as cell phones.
The elimination of all of today’s militaries and space programs as the world reverts to when civilization existed without oil.
Eliminate the need for major shipping ports that accommodate military and cruise ships.
Eliminate the more than50,000 merchant ships that are moving products around the world that are made with the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil, coal, and natural gas!
Thank you Ron Stein for your excellent analyses. Then there are the National defense aspects of energy independence. I wrote on this before too. Here, Here, Here and Here.
Electrify Transportation? What is the Motive?
President Obama and the U.S. auto manufacturing executives agreed to what became an effective EV Mandate in 2012. This was not what Americans wanted and not in the best interests of our country. But, folks, it was during the Obama administration when the “War on Carbon” really started to have a severe impact on the un-American and unwise “Climate Policies” that the destructive Net-Zero Carbon path the Biden Administration has set our country on. My previous article on “How the War on Carbon began” is here. (63)
Conclusions
Americans and all of the free western world need conventional forms of energy to sustain our quality of life and freedom to travel. The government war on carbon is not about saving the planet or environmental protection, it is about control of our lives. Actually, the roots of the environmental activists really go back to Margaret Sanger, the Club of Rome, Paul Ehrlich’s book “The Population Bomb” and policies to limit population of the earth. The World Economic Forum and other activist organizations have advocated “De Industrialization and De Growth”. (19, 29, 30, 31,33)
Rather than solving problems through science and engineering as Fritz Haber did when he invented the Haber-Bosch process about 1908 for producing synthetic ammonia fertilizer and thus, provide increased food production for the people of the world. Read more here.(91) Also, Norman Borlaug who created the “Good and Beneficial Green Revolution” of food production through genetically improved crops.(92) I have written on some of those who are responsible for destructive green energy policies and the ineffectiveness of the United Nations. Here and here.
Whatever the motivations are for Net-Zero Carbon, it will not work and will only weaken our country and work against the best interests of Humanity. There definitely is both strong influence of Green Policies from foreign influence and from NGO’s. These influencers are working against the best interests of our great country. Check references below 19-90 to see for yourself. There are many others included below to support my conclusions and previous articles. Kindly spread the word. The 2024 election is coming and we do not need more energy ignorant, green energy biased and un-American elected officials.
Sheldon Whitehouse’s new book where he will claim the opposition party does what he and his party have done very effectively, for decades: “The Scheme, where He accuses Republicans of using Dark Money”, when in fact, the Democrats do it much more: https://thenewpress.com/books/scheme
My wife Ginny and I visited Israel in 2019. Following that visit I prepared a slide presentation to document our trip. I also engaged in some research and amongst the documentation found, I used illustrations and photos provided by our tour leaders Dr. Harry Morgan, Pastor Jerry Hunter and the Maranatha Tours, Israeli guide, Mr. Malcolm Cartier. Much of the documentation and illustrations follow below.
I am very concerned for the people of Israel and especially the friends that we met during our visit, during which we were treated so graciously. The increased awareness and education of the history of Israel and the Middle East has led me to believe that the war on Israel and antisemitism is really a war on western civilization. When so many people who have solid values do not speak out, I am reminded of Martin Niemoller’s quote regarding the Holocaust:
“First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out– Because I was not a Socialist. Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out– Because I was not a Trade Unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out– Because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me–and there was no one left to speak for me.” – Martin Niemoller
This quote is attributed to the prominent German pastor Martin Niemöller. It is sometimes mistakenly referred to as a poem.
After World War II, Niemöller openly spoke about his own early complicity in Nazism and his eventual change of heart. His powerful words about guilt and responsibility still resonate today.(34)
Israel’s prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated something close to this: “If Israel Loses this war, then next, they are coming for you” (paraphrasing)
Let’s start with a brief history. This is the viewpoint from our Faith as Christians.
Evil antisemitism took place in Europe with Pogroms in Russia, throughout much of Europe and then the Holocaust
Exiting Christ’s Tomb in Jerusalem and with Mosque in background
The three religions trace their origins back to Abraham, who, in Genesis, had humanity’s first relationship with God after the failures of Noah’s flood and the Tower of Babel. Judaism and Christianity trace their tie to Abraham through his son Isaac, and Islam traces it through his son Ishmael. All three Religions have roots in Jerusalem.
The Abraham Accords, initiated by President Trump, were intended to advance peace in the Middle East from the basis that the people living in this region have much in common and more to be gained through peace in the Middle East and around the world based on mutual understanding and coexistence, as well as respect for human dignity and freedom, including religious freedom.(33)
The three religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam readily fit the definition of monotheism, which is to worship one god while denying the existence of other gods. But, the relationship of the three religions is closer than that: They claim to worship the same god. While Judaism gave that god a name, “Yahweh,” both Christianity and Islam simply refer to him as “God” — in Arabic, Islam’s founding language, “Allah” means “The God.”
Anti-Semitism continues today and in my opinion is as bad as it has ever been in my lifetime. In America, according to FBI Director Christopher Wray, “The Jewish people represent about 2.4% of the total U.S. population but are the targets for 60% of Hate Crimes”
The Jewish people have done much to advance Humanity and the quality of life for much of the world. A minority for sure but their culture and values, including a strong nuclear family has helped them to live very creative and productive lives. For example, creating food production techniques in Eastern Europe in the late 19th century. Then in 1913 a Jewish engineer in Germany, Fritz Haber, invented the Haber-Bosch Ammonia process for producing synthetic ammonia fertilizer from air, coal and later, natural gas. Recent energy experts such as Vaclav Smil credit food production for half of the world’s people (4 Billion) is made possible by Haber’s invention which is still important today. Haber received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1918 for this accomplishment. Albert Einstein, another Jewish scientist needs no introduction on his contributions to the advancement of science.
Admiral Hyman Rickover of the U.S. Navy whose Jewish family fled Poland. Admiral Rickover is the “Father of the Nuclear Navy and the Father of Commercial Nuclear Power Generation”. He made a huge difference in the quality of life for millions of people of the world. Rickover made passage to New York City with his mother and sister in March 1906, fleeing an anti-Semitic Russian pogrom. (8)
Another prominent Jewish scientist that greatly improved human health was the inventor of the Polio Vaccine, Dr. Jonas Salk. (9) There are many examples of fine Jewish people who have made major contributions to the advancement of Humankind.
Facts to Consider
Below is each religion’s total estimated population for the year 2020:(2)
Christianity – 2.38 billion
Islam – 1.91 billion
Hinduism – 1.16 billion
Buddhism – 507 million
Folk Religions – 430 million
Other Religions – 61 million
Judaism – 14.6 million
Unaffiliated – 1.19 billion
The Jewish people represent about 0.2% of the world population. However, they have a history of being very creative, intelligent and productive people. Many Jews who fled Ukraine and Russia during the 1930’s took skills in agricultural development with them and have done much to provide sufficient food for the people of the world. Fritz Haber who literally created the means to feed 50% of the world population is another Jewish giant in science. Admiral Rickover, Albert Einstein and Jonas Salk are just three that I can think of off the top of my head.
There are only about 15 million Jews worldwide with the largest population of 6.3 million in Israel, followed by 5.7 million in the U.S. No other country has over 500,000 Jews. (5) (Note: I have read in Joel Rosenberg’s book(32) that the UAE has over 1 million, but the reference claims only the U.S. has over 500,000)
Fifteen million people is about 0.2% of the world population and 5.7 million is only about 1.8-2.4% of the U.S. population. Given those small percentages, the following statistics are astounding:
Jews have won 22% of all Nobel Prizes ever awarded
They have won 25% of all Fields Medals (awarded to the brightest mathematician under age 40)
They constitute 31% of the Forbes 400 (which lists the wealthiest individuals)
Jews have held the World Chess Champion title 54% of the time since 1866
Jews compose 21% of Ivy League student bodies
They have won about 50% of the Pulitzer Prizes for non-fiction
37% of Academy Award winning directors have been Jewish
The Upside Down World Today
There are examples of anti-Semitism are all around us and even by members of Congress, government and once great University staffs and students that openly support HAMAS Terrorists. The letter below was sent to a friend from Tel Aviv. My friend stated that, “this letter brings back very bad memories” …….the letter excerpt below is from mid October 2023 in Tel Aviv:
The Holocaust of the 1930’s and 40’s was evil and it has been well documented. Upon the discovery of horrible concentration camps and the furnaces at Auschwitz, General Eisenhower ordered photographic records so that it can never happen again. “Even as the Allied Forces continued their fight, Eisenhower foresaw a day when the horrors of the Holocaust might be denied. He invited the media to document the scene. He compelled Germans living in the surrounding towns and any soldier not fighting at the front to witness the atrocities for themselves.” (32)
Many misguided people today appear to be repeating history. Not only in the Middle East but all over the world, including Europe and the United States. All of the countries of Europe and the U.S. should fully understand history and the facts of the Holocaust.
The purpose of this post is to introduce you to Israel from a more personal basis than what is shown on the TV and MSM news, based on our tour four years ago. Further resources are copied below if you are interested in learning more about the history and current events of antisemitism.
Just a few years ago, this seemed to be a very advanced and civilized world of 8 Billion people, most of which are, or at least were, interested in peace and love for their neighbors. Today, this is a very dangerous world that seems to be upside down.
Let me close with a question. If you were one of the 0.2% world minority Jewish persons, How would you feel and act when disinformation and untruthful stories were being reported on you? The links below provide access to news from the factual side and from the Israeli side. I encourage the reader to seek the true facts and then….
Please Pray for Peace in the Mideast as well as the Rest of the World.
God’s Blessing to All,
Dick Storm
References and Information for Facts and News of the War and Facts on Israel
Israeli – Likud Right. ISRAEL TODAY – www.israeltoday.co.il – Israeli – Messianic, Jerusalem based – Right JERUSALEM POST www.jpost.com – Israeli – tending right.
JERUSALEM REPORT https://www.jpost.com/jerusalem-report – a bi-weekly print and online news magazine that covers political, security, economic, religious and cultural issues in Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish world.
MAARIV www.nrg.co.il – Israeli – tending center to right.
BLOGS: Outspoken individuals defending Israel against bias rhetoric would include such people as ALAN DERSHOWITZ, MELANIE PHILIPS, PAMELA GELLER and BRIGITE GABRIEL. FIDF – FRIENDS OF THE IDF (Israel Defense Forces) https://www.fidf.org/?pid=194&source=bpi_emailwrapper ISRAELI NEWS REPORTING OUTLETS Every so often I am asked about what papers to reader with news coming out of Israel from the cyber-Newspapers on the web, here are some in alphabetical order that might be of interest.
Israeli – Likud Right. ISRAEL TODAY – www.israeltoday.co.il – Israeli – Messianic, Jerusalem based – Right JERUSALEM POST www.jpost.com – Israeli – tending right.
JERUSALEM REPORT https://www.jpost.com/jerusalem-report – a bi-weekly print and online news magazine that covers political, security, economic, religious and cultural issues in Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish world.
MAARIV www.nrg.co.il – Israeli – tending center to right.
Much has been written on the importance of energy to power a nation’s economy and to continue to provide a high quality Human Development Index. The purpose of this post is to focus on the importance of Fuel Diversity for electricity generation. There is a proven concept for energy storage for electricity generation. It is coal fueled power plants with a 30-60 day supply of coal in a pile, on site. This is proven to be reliable, low cost and safe.
Energy powers everything we do!
Think about this. You are probably reading this on a computer screen. Have a warm cup of coffee nearby and are sitting in an air conditioned office or home. Your car is sitting outside and at your urging is ready to provide transportation. You get the point. Remember the last hurricane or severe winter storm that killed power for a day or so? Loss of energy sources or electricity is debilitating. Think about the 1970’s Oil Embargoes. If you are too young to remember 1973-1979 check these references, here and here.
Primary Energy Sources-Back to Basics
Lets discuss energy and electricity and the sources and quantity of everyday energy that we depend on.
America has used right at 100 Quadrillion Btus of PRIMARY energy per annum since about the year 2000.
The energy we use is compiled by various government agencies in BTUs equivalent (British Thermal Units). A BTU is enough heat to raise one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit, just as a reminder of High School Physics. Each BTU converted to work is equivalent (at 100% efficiency) to 778 Foot Pounds. Therefore, the energy production and consumption is converted to BTUs so that all forms of energy can be reported on a like basis. I wrote an article on the basics of energy for Middle School students here if you are interested, also on “Demystifying Energy and Electricity” here.
This article is about fuel diversity. Just as I explained above regarding the reporting of energy in BTUs to have a common measurement of energy quantities, in some cases one fuel can be substituted for another, especially in electric power generation. Thermal Power Generation Plants that generate Bulk Power can be provided with natural gas, coal, oil, Biomass or nuclear energy to produce steam to drive a steam turbine generator. The fuel selected is done for reasons of economic or fuel availability. Hawaii is truly an Energy Island and thus cannot interconnect with the lower 48 states. Fuels for Thermal Power Generation needs to be imported. In fact, I wrote on Hawaii’s electricity generation in 2020, here.
The proportions of each form of energy used and depended on to power our lives has changed as technologies for extraction and production have improved. For example for electric power generation coal fuel was consumed for about 50% of power generation in year 2000. Then due to the Shale Revolution of Hydraulic Fracturing and Directional Drilling, natural gas became less expensive than coal on a $/million BTU basis. See my review of Harold Hamm’s book, Game Changer which covers the Shale Gas Revolution, here. Thus, gas was substituted for coal generation by many utilities that could get it. Alaska and Hawaii of course do not have pipelines to connect, but of many utilities in the lower 48 states, gas was an economical and clean fuel of choice.
Coal fuel in the U.S. today provides about 23 % of the primary energy to produce Bulk Electric Power over the year. The substitution of coal fuel as primary energy is natural gas which has become more economical as a result of the Shale gas revolution which took off about 2012. Electricity is SECONDARY Energy and must be produced from Primary energy. Electricity is important and in 2022 electricity consumed about a third (37.7% to be exact) of the total PRIMARY energy used in the U.S. The best factual illustration that I am aware, of the sources and consumption of primary energy is the LLNL Energy Flow Diagram, shown below. This is one of my favorite graphics and it is prepared each year by the Department of Energy. The chart above shows the total primary energy used since 1950 and thus supports my conclusion that America needs right at 100 Quads per year to sustain our quality of life, economy and industrial production.
The total Primary Energy used by the U.S. from coal fuel in 2022 was about 10% of the total. (9.91% from data above). That doesn’t seem like much does it? Remember, this is primary energy I am talking about. So, although coal only provided about 10% of our total primary energy it was in fact, Dispatchable, affordable and it provided electricity generation when solar and wind were not available. The chart below is of MISO generation by fuel this past summer. This example shows 40% of total power generation in MISO from coal at this moment in time.
The topic of this article is “The Importance of Fuel Diversity”. The example above of summer Bulk Power Generation depending on coal fueled power generation units is just one of many reasons America should keep our Fuel Diversity. Another example of the importance of coal plants and the consequences of shutting them down is discussed in my blog post discussing the February 2021 Texas Blackout that killed over 200 people. Here.
My previous post on De-Mystifying Energy attempted to explain this, here. The difference between Primary and Secondary Energy is important. If everything is Electrified as many suggest we should do, has anyone really thought through where the primary energy to do so is to be sourced? In my opinion, it has not. Wind and solar cannot replace the primary energy currently required. The four charts shown up to here should make that clear.
Government policy and many people in the general public believe that renewables can replace fossil fuels and nuclear. The harsh reality is that after decades of government subsidies & tax credits wind and solar provide less than 6% of our total PRIMARY energy. Here below is the LLNL Energy Flow Diagram from 2021 with the 4.96% wind and solar contribution circled.
Public demonization of all conventional fuels including nuclear, coal, gas, gasoline, Diesel are unAmerican and foolish. Wind and solar only provide single digits of the total Primary energy needed to power our lives and it will be impossible to ramp wind & solar renewables up to 100% of our energy needs. The charts above are from the government statistics as published on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sankey Diagram website, an excellent resource.
Back to Fuel Diversity
Each American citizen, on average is accustomed to using about 315 million Btus of energy per year. I have written separate articles on American energy use here and here. My first point is that we all need on average of about 863,000 to 1 million Btus each day in Total Primary Energy. This number is provided by dividing 330 million citizens into 100 Quadrillion Btus and then dividing that by 365 days/year = 863,000 BTUs per day/citizen of PRIMARY Energy. This is for all uses which (see LLNL chart above) including: Electricity generation, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial and Residential uses. The second important point is that providing this energy each day may be from various forms of energy. Depending on which is more efficient or more economical. Let’s take an example of electric generation on July 21, 2023 in the Midwest at about 2:00 PM in the afternoon (example above). It was more economical to use coal fuel for 40% of the electricity generation at that hour. It may have been, I do not know for sure, that only coal generation could deliver the electricity Demand at that moment. The fact is, coal delivered 40% of the electricity at that moment.
Let’s take another example from last winter. This example below is from Christmas week, 2022.
Fuel Diversity with more coal plants ready to operate and properly maintained could have avoided the Blackouts of Christmas week, 2022. Duke Energy has shut down many coal plants as part of their Net-Zero Carbon plan. So have many other Utilities, both Public and Investor Owned. I presented my views on this at the ENERUM (Columbus Ohio Energy Forum) in August 2022. My presentation is Here. Also, my recent article on the self sabotaging of our energy and electricity generation Grid is here.
Even well respected utilities that were once known for their outstanding leadership and engineering excellence are planning to shut more of their coal plants down in the near future. This works against Fuel Diversity! Here below is a screen print excerpt of the Duke Energy IRP for 2023:
These planned shut downs are in spite of the winter 2022 rolling Blackouts described above. Why? Because the N.C. politicians and top Duke management have agreed to follow a disastrous Net-Zero Carbon path. So has the S.C. Legislature and Santee-Cooper. I wrote about Santee-Cooper in an earlier article, here.
Energy Storage
My first instructor on electricity generation was in class in 1959. The instructor, Harry Park stated, “Electricity needs to be generated the instant that it is needed”. That stuck with me my entire career. Today intermittent renewables are the rage and of course, as Mr. Park stated in 1959, electricity needs to be generated or provided from storage the instant it is needed. That is what built America’s Grid and America’s strong economy. Reliable, affordable electricity available the instant it is needed or in today’s word, Demanded. The published articles I see regarding the justification of higher and higher percentages of wind and solar generation are dependent on electricity storage. The best and largest Bulk Power Storage systems today are “Pumped Storage Hydro”. Such as Duke Energy’s Bad Creek or TVA’s Raccoon Mountain. These work well where the local topography allows it. Bad Creek has about 1,200 ft of elevation change between the upper and lower reservoirs(21). Bad Creek is currently, according to N.C. Business Journal, being uprated to about 2,800 MW. TVA’s Raccoon Mountain provides 1,650 MW of storage. Two other alternatives for storage are batteries and hydrogen. The largest battery electric storage system (BESS) that I am aware is in California. This is at Moss Landing Plant in California. It is being uprated to 3,000 MWH. The “H” after MW means Hour. That means the electricity stored is good at the rated capacity for one hour. Enough time to start gas turbines or buy power from a neighboring utility on the grid. Hydrogen can be a source of storage too. However, it must be remembered that it takes about four times the input of electricity to produce one unit of Bulk Power from hydrogen. An excellent reference on this was published in Gas Turbine World Magazine in August 2022, Here. (22)
The most reliable, proven, safe and affordable form of Energy Storage: A large pile of coal onsite at a clean, efficient coal power plant. When I started in the power generation business in the 1960’s one of my experiences was in conducting a boiler efficiency test at a large power plant in Illinois. As I recall the explanation for the huge coal pile was, “Because of the possibility of Union walkouts at either the coal mines or the railroad, a 90 day supply of coal was required to be stored on site”. Proven, safe and affordable. The photo below is real long term energy storage. A coal pile can store enough energy for a 2,000 MW power plant to run full power for months, not hours as is currently planned for batteries.
These five categories of energy use are shown on the LLNL charts above. Americans with our current population of about 330 million, will need at least 100 Quads per year for the foreseeable future. If we are to sustain our quality of life and freedom to travel, we will continue to need about 100 Quads per year. This article is focussed on electricity generation and the 37% of America’s PRIMARY Energy used to generate Bulk Power. The second part of this article will cover the other 63% of our PRIMARY ENERGY.
Conclusion
It will be impossible to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar any time soon. Attempting to do so will create hardships, economic decline and a general weakness of our country including weakness of our National Security.
The best and most proven energy storage system that I have known through my entire career in power generation is a large coal pile. It was common for coal power plants to have 30 or 60 day supplies of coal storage on the plant site.
On a positive note, I wrote about the preceding 80 years the “Era of Affordable, Reliable Energy and Electricity Generation, Part 1” Here. America really did great things in making energy and electricity reliable and affordable for over 80 years. Coal plants became more efficient and clean, nuclear power came of age and America became energy independent and the largest producer of natural gas in the world. I chose 80 years because that covers my lifetime and I know the history of accomplishments during these times, because I worked in the power generation business for over 50 of those years. Experiences in design, maintenance, operations, tuning, upgrading, capacity improvements, Betterments, Heat-Rate Improvements, fuel flexibility, fouling and slagging reductions and emissions reductions of fossil power systems. I admit, I am not a policy wonk, I am a nuts and bolts power engineer. But, I have been gifted with many years of experiences and have traveled much of the world to witness the relationship of energy and economic prosperity.
The loss of legacy coal plants is threatening Bulk Power Supply Reliability by the loss of over 100,000 MW’s of reliable coal power generation capacity without replacing it in kind is wrong. I wrote on the “End of the Era of Reliable, Affordable Energy and Electricity” a couple weeks ago. It is here. The references included are from NERC, FERC and other reliable people and sources of information. I encourage the reader to check these references to decide for yourself.
Nuclear power generation is the only known technology to produce carbon dioxide free electric power. However, building a new nuclear power generation supply chain will take decades. David Archibald wrote an excellent article on “The Energy Future We Need to Have a Future Worth Having”, here. I also support nuclear for the long term, but the next 30 years are important to work through and hopefully, sustain our high quality of life until future technologies and the needed supply-chains are sufficiently developed for safe and reliable implementation. My previous blog post covered an overview of the needed new thinking (and policies) on nuclear power for carbon dioxide emissions reduction to succeed. here. (27)
The Democrat “Green New Deal” policies to attempt to achieve Net-Zero Carbon will likely create energy and electricity shortages this coming winterand worse yet, contribute to the continuing decline of our country.
Energy: Pre-requisite for Economic Prosperity
In part 1 I discussed the path to prosperity of the U.S. during the last 80 years. America was clearly the strongest country in the world by any measure of industrial production, Intellectual advancement, science, space, aeronautics, respect in the world, the world’s largest economy, the world’s largest manufacturer of products, progress in environmental protection, freedom and ease of travel for the citizens and the building of infrastructure, including the most reliable power generation system in the world. The Grid is described by the Smithsonian Magazine as “The Greatest Machine Ever Built, the North American Power Grid“. Yes, our energy and electricity generation infrastructure was the best in the world. The government Bureaucrats in charge of our country are dismantling and wrecking “The Greatest Machine Ever Built”….plus faceless Bureaucratic Agencies in Washington are weakening the Primary energy supplies that our country, military, industries, economic progress and the sources of primary energy that citizens depend on each day. Wrecking it in plain sight.
Government Especially the Democrat Party is Self- Sabotaging America’s Energy and Electricity Generation Infrastructure
Here is a listing of 100 Executive orders compiled by the American Energy Alliance which are against the best interests of America. The EPA, Dept. of Energy, Dept of Interior, Securities and Exchange Commission and essentially all alphabet soup government agencies are weaponized against fossil fuels as part of Biden’s “War on Carbon” under the heading “Climate Change”. The policies to weaken America and including our military strength are beyond absurd, they are Un-American. Here are four posts on my blog and on LinkedIn that outline who the organizations and people are that are behind the un-American energy policies. Here, here, here and here.(6, 7, 8, 9) Disguised as “Climate Policies” they really have nothing to do with protection of human health or the environment. Then there is Dr. Euan Mearns post on WUWT , “The Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”. Here.
Remember the Oil Embargoes of the 1970’s? What comes next due to Un-American Climate Policies, will likely be Worse
During the time period 1940-2022 America made huge advancements in energy production and electricity generation. These are described in part I. Most of this era was positive growth and advancements until there was an interruption of energy supply. That was in the mid 1970’s , caused by the 1973-74 Oil Embargo. Yes, I know, that is history and a long time ago. The reason I bring it up is because the self sabotaging of American energy and electricity generation policies are likely to create more harm and suffering for the citizens than the two oil embargoes of the 1970’s. For a review of history, let me suggest reading the Federal Reserve and Office of the Historian reports. (3 & 4)
Some of the Expected Consequences of Biden’s Climate Policies
Think about your life and what you do each day, what you depend on. Electricity provides heating and cooling for our home, hot water for your shower in the morning, provides heat to cook breakfast. Then, you turn the ignition on in your car and drive to work. If you work for an industrial manufacturing company it is powered by electricity and probably natural gas. Perhaps you are planning a vacation to fly to a tropical island or ski resort. You get the picture, all of these steps we take each day are dependent on reliable, affordable energy. If you disagree with me thus far then think about the last hurricane or severe storm that killed electric power for a day or more. Think about how the loss of electricity or availability of gasoline creates hardship and changes to your life-style. I am old enough to remember the oil embargoes of the 1970’s. The oil embargoes of 1973, 1974 and 1978 caused financial distress of some of the strongest industries and businesses in our country. In my analysis, the energy crisis that is coming will be worse than what we experienced in the 1970’s. What is so alarming is, that it did not have to come to this. These policies have been implemented by (so-called) public servants and elected officials. Unfortunately the only Science that these energy and climate policy makers understand is Political Science.
Nationally Recognized Experts Weigh In
FERC is an acronym for the “Federal Energy Regulatory Commission”. One of the very respected past commissioners, Mr. Mark Christie has testified before Congress and more recently at a conference in Dallas, TX.
FERC Commissioner Mark Christie likened the current state to that of the Great Depression, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt said the country was facing a rendezvous with destiny.
“We’re at a very critical time … reliability means, ‘Are the lights going to stay on?’ That’s what it means to the general public,” Christie said. “Are the lights going to stay on? We’re really at a point where that’s coming into serious question. Are the lights going to stay on?
“Right now, when it comes to the reliability of our grid, the United States is facing a rendezvous with reality. Reality is just around the corner. You may think you can avoid it for a while, but reality will track you down. And reality is tracking us down when it comes to the reliability of our grid,” he added.
Testifying before the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee in May, Christie told lawmakers the grid is facing “potentially catastrophic consequences.” He said he was not trying to be melodramatic. (See Senators Praise Phillips, FERC’s Output at Oversight Hearing.)
The quote from above is from Mr. Mark Christie. Others besides him have warned of the environmental zealots in the EPA and their war on all fossil fuels. Michelle Bloodworth of America’s Power wrote an excellent article in Real Clear Energy, here. (11)
The EPA is either completely out of control or it is controlled by forces that have nefarious goals for America. Here is an example of my local electricity provider’s forecast of future electricity demand and the generation resources they “Hope” to have after 2030 when they plan to shut down several of the reliable, low cost and Dispatchable coal generating plants. Notice how in 2029 the coal generation assets drop off, yet the Demand projection continues to increase. It is a fair question to ask, why are the coal plants being shut down, if the power is needed? Why were no modern clean coal plants built since 2013? The Democrat Party’s “War on Coal is the reason. Here is an excellent report by the 114th Congress, published in 2015.(12)
Then there is the major investor owned utility to the north and one excerpt from their IRP (Integrated Resource Plan) is similar. It is copied below. Both of these Utilities are planning to shut down major coal generation that has served them and their customers well for, in Duke’s case over 100 years. Notice the figure below, this is an excerpt from the Duke Energy IRP. The coal plants, like Santee-Cooper’s have served Duke very well for many years but because of government policies of Net-Zero Carbon, they plan to shut down much of the coal generation by 2036. Interestingly, it is plainly shown as a “Firm Resource Gap”. That means less generation capacity than what is forecasted as the Demand. This is in plain sight and prepared by engineers and managers that must know better. I am perplexed as to why more managers and engineers do not speak out?
This winter(10, 11) is likely to result in more Blackouts and energy shortages. In my opinion it will be somewhat like the hardships of the 1973 Oil Embargo. This time it is our own President and Bureaucratic agencies that are causing it. Did Mark Levin get it right with his selection of the title of his recent book, “The Democrat Party Hates AMERICA“? Well right now, it looks like Mark Levin is correct, and I came to that same conclusion before his book was published back in 1998 when I first ran into EPA actions of “New Source Review” by the Clinton Administration. My previous blog post in 2021 outlined “The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be”here. (13) The administration of President Jimmy Carter has been criticized for decades. In my life experiences in the power industry, today Jimmy Carter looks like an American Patriot, Energy Expert and a Saint compared to Joe Biden and his administration.
Decline by Design
The influencers of American energy policies have been discussed by me and others. Some recent reports by NERC, FERC & RTO’s warn of unreliable Bulk Power Supplies in the near future. Numerous books and articles by Donn Dears, Judith Curry, the CO2 Coalition, CFACT, Ed Ireland, Robert Bryce, the Washington Examiner and many others have documented “Weaponization of the EPA” and the entire government of the Biden Administration. It is obvious to me that this is not naiveté or foolishness. It has to be intentional. I am angry that Congress has not reigned in the Executive Branch Agencies.
Conclusions
The high quality of life that we have come to enjoy along with a growing stock market, reasonable cost food and much more is at risk. Our future is uncertain because the President and government policy makers are self sabotaging America’s energy and electricity infrastructure.
The general public is not interested in pushing back and has continued to vote for Presidents, Senators and Congressional Representatives that are just as unaware of the importance of energy and electricity generation as their constituents
Public education on Energy and Electricity has failed
“Woke” Businesses and Industries have promoted Green and renewable energy when their leaders must know better but they do it to follow the “Green New Deal” cash flow
Congress has Delegated too Much Power to Federal Agencies and they Refuse to Reign them in. Especially the EPA
Given the Net-Zero Carbon Path that we are on, the Future of America’s Energy and Economic Progress is at Risk. The title of one of Donn Dears Book had it right: “Net-Zero Carbon- The Climate Policy Destroying America” Yes, it is true. The Biden Climate Policies are Destroying America.
I have believed for many years that no one should bet against America and I love America and feel as Patriotic as anyone. However, the Climate policies currently in place has our country on a very uncertain path. Energy that is Reliable, Affordable and Available when we need it is not optional…..Energy is vital to keep our country strong. Why is our government at war with the lifeblood of our country? Why isn’t Congress acting? Why are senior engineers and managers in Electric Utilities not pushing back?
This is my Perspective of Proven, Reliable, Affordable & Abundant Energy & Electricity Generation during my lifetime. Here are some of the significant technical advances, changes, regulations, incidents, events and policies that have shaped energy and power generation over the last eight decades. Some personal experiences are interjected during this era just to show where I am coming from in my perspective. Part 2 will cover my thoughts on the impossible transition to renewables.
A Brief History of the Improved Quality of Life Since WWII
Dr. Euan Mearns wrote in WUWT this short summary of the history of energy and the “Energy Transition as Social Vandalism”(19). An excerpt from the concise and well written essay:
“The mid 19th century also saw the development of early internal combustion engines, although at that time there was insufficient fuel for a motor industry. The Spindletop gusher and subsequent discoveries changed all that. The world was now awash with oil without any real market. Then in 1908, Henry Ford rolled out his Model T to begin the age of the car and mass transit. The Wright brothers’ first powered flight in 1908 led quickly to commercial air travel and eventually to the jet age.
Unparalleled development came with the 20th century and the introduction of nuclear power plants whose uranium fuel contains more than 16,000 times the energy content of coal, oil and natural gas. At the same time, hydroelectric power rapidly expanded and natural gas (the most energy dense of the fossil fuels by mass) became more available for electricity generation and home heating and cooking.
The introduction of gas-fired central heating enhanced the well-being of populations. Whole homes would be heated by hot-water radiators, and no longer would families have to huddle round a dirty coal fire. By 2000, life expectancy in world population had risen to 66 years, 78 years in the now developed countries.”
Looking back, I am awed by the progress that was made for the Betterment of the quality of life for Humankind. I am proud of my small contributions along the way.
Some of the Significant Energy & Electricity Mileposts: 1940-2023
Pulverized coal firing for steam generation becomes the predominant method of power generation
Mechanical dust collectors are used for collection of particulates
1941 B&W invents and develops Cyclone Burners to fire low fusion midwestern coal with more than 70% of the ash collected as a molten smelt
1943 Combustion-Engineering invents and develops Tilting Tangential Firing
Electrostatic precipitators are applied to large coal plants
1949 First G-E Gas Turbine for electric power generation in the U.S. installed at Oklahoma Gas & Electric Belle Isle Plant
1951 U.S. Navy Admiral Rickover obtains funding from Congress to build the first nuclear powered submarine, Nautilus
1953 President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” initiative
Supercritical pressure steam generators become common place
1955 USS Nautilus puts to sea
1955 First “Atoms for Peace Conference” in Geneva
Steam temperatures and power generation from Rankine cycle steam plant efficiency approaches 40% design efficiency
1957 Shippingport Nuclear Steam System, the first U.S. Commercial Reactor is proven
1957-59 Philo and Eddystone Ultrasupercritical Units are placed in service
1970 – President Nixon signs law to form EPA
Coal pulverizer state of the art advances to single pulverizers with over 100,000 pounds per hour capacity
1973 First Oil Embargo
1977 U.S. Department of Energy is formed with the intention to lead America to energy independence
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is begun
1978 EPA Clean Air Act
1978 President Jimmy Carter signs Energy Policy Act
1979 Three Mile Island Incident
1980 Energy Security Act
1988 G-E Single Cycle Aeroderivative Gas Turbine achieves 41.9% efficiency
1990 EPA-Clean Air Act Amendment
1991-First Horizontal Drilling by Enid Company in OK
Low NOx Burners or other NOx reduction systems are installed on most coal plants across the U.S.
Flue gas desulfurization becomes standard for coal plants
Selective Catalytic Reactors are used to reduce NOx
2010 Hydraulic Fracturing combined with Directional Drilling by Harold Hamm’s company greatly increases shale gas production in ND
2012 The Shale Gas Revolution produces natural gas at lower cost/million Btu than coal
2014 CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) units achieve over 60% efficiency
2020 Natural gas electricity generation provides over 38% of U.S. electricity production
2022 U.S. Congress passes IRA Law and Biden signs, it codifies green energy
Reasonable Cost Energy & Electricity Improves Quality of Life
This is a personal story of electricity generation. Here is my take on how “Living Better Electrically” came to be, during my lifetime. Here is a typical TV ad from circa 1962, the year I entered the workforce.
Electricity Generation 1962-2012 Living Better Electrically
This 50 year period was my personal career, most of which I spent working in the electric power generation business. Including equipment design, manufacturing, startup, testing, operations, maintenance, emissions reduction and upgrading of coal power production equipment. My specialty was large electric utility fuel burning and steam generating equipment. Upon graduation from Williamson in 1962 I was employed as an electrician then as a utility engineer at Mobil Oil Corporation. In 1966 I joined Babcock & Wilcox working in Barberton, Ohio as a Technical Assistant to the Project Engineer in the Nuclear and Special Projects Department. Projects that I worked on as part of the B&W team were the Duke Oconee Nuclear Steam Systems, numerous reactors, steam generators and pressurizers for Navy Nuclear Propulsion Systems and large heavy walled, high pressure, pressure vessels for the Petrochemical industry.
Duke, Oconee #1 Reactor Vessel at B&W Shop in Mt. Vernon, Indiana, from Duke Annual Report 1967
In the 1960’s electricity was very reasonable in cost and nuclear power was proclaimed by the AEC Head (Atomic Energy Commission) Lewis Strauss as soon to be “Too Cheap to Meter”. Commercial nuclear power generation had been proven at Shippingport and was growing exponentially in applications all across the country. The two most memorable engineering leaders that I remember visiting B&W’s Barberton facilities (while I worked there) were Admiral Rickover, the Father of the nuclear Navy and commercial nuclear power generation and Bill Lee, who at the time, was Duke Power Company’s VP of engineering. Mr. Lee was said to have favored the B&W Nuclear Steam System because it was slightly more efficient with the Once through Steam Generator providing a small amount of superheat that competing NSS (Nuclear Steam Systems) did not provide, to the steam supply to the turbine. Duke Power at the time, had commissioned some of the most efficient coal plants in the world and planned to extract the highest possible efficiency from their first nuclear powered steam supply system. This was logical to Mr. Lee and one reason he was attracted to the new B&W OTSG (Once Through Steam Generator) which was designed for a few degrees of superheated steam temperature. My previous blog post discussed the B&W, C-E and Westinghouse nuclear power manufacturing facilities here.
The Most Efficient and Largest Supercritical Coal Power Plants Built 1957-1975
The 1960’s were exciting times for coal fueled power plants too. Two Milestone supercritical power plants were built and started up during this time. The 5,000 psi Eddystone Steam Station (Philadelphia Electric) with a steam generator built by Combustion Engineering and the 4,700 psi Philo Plant (AEP) steam generator was built by Babcock & Wilcox.
Soon after these magnificent accomplishments was the 900 MW Combustion Engineering series of supercritical steam generators at Conemaugh & Keystone plants in western PA. Then the 1,300 MW supercritical steam generators built by B&W for AEP and TVA. Certainly impressive to me at the time with furnaces over 100 foot wide and operation at over 3,500 psi with superheated main steam at 1,000 degrees F. and also Reheated steam supply to 1,000 degrees F.
Duke Power designed, installed, operated and maintained the most efficient coal plants in the world with the additions of Marshall Units 3 & 4 on Lake Norman in 1969 and 1970.
Later, the Belews Creek coal plant was installed and between Marshall and Belews Creek competed for the highest efficiency coal plants in the U.S. Belews Creek Steam Station is a 2.24-GW, two-unit coal-fired generating facility located on Belews Lake in Stokes County, North Carolina. It is or was Duke Energy’s largest coal-burning power plant in the Carolinas and when it was operated on coal it ranked among the most efficient coal facilities in the United States. During 2006, it was the fifth most efficient coal power plant in the United States with a heat rate of 9,023 Btu/kWh (37.8% conversion efficiency). In 2008, it was the #1 most efficient coal power plant in the United States with a heat rate of 9,204 British thermal units per kilowatt-hour (2.697 kWh/kWh) or 37.1% conversion efficiency.
A Few of My Personal Experiences with Coal Plants in the 1970’s
My first foray into S.C. was as one of three startup engineers for the SCE&G Wateree coal plant in Eastover, SC. This is a coal fueled, two unit supercritical steam supply plant which uses two Riley Stoker supercritical steam generators. These are the only two supercritical steam generators built by Riley. They have been very successful and in fact, at this writing are still in service 53 years after the startup of Unit #1. After that in 1972 I was assigned as lead startup engineer at the 420 MW Sutton Unit #3 near Wilmington ,NC. This plant is shown below during steam line blowing in June 1972. Steam line blowing was one of my favorite activities in the startup of a new plant. The roar of the exiting steam at supersonic velocity was memorable and provided a sense of the enormous power of steam. Steam line blowing is a one time startup operation to remove grit and foreign debris from inside the superheater and reheater tubes and piping, so that when operation begins, solid particles of debris will not damage the steam turbine blades.
Following the startup of Sutton #3, in January 1973 I joined Carolina Power and Light Company as a senior engineer. My first assignment was as the lead startup engineer on Roxboro Unit #3. This is a 720 MW coal Unit with a unique design of two half capacity boilers and one common feedwater supply train with a blended single stream steam supply to one G-E 720 MW turbine rated at 2,400 psi 1,000 degree F. Superheat and 1,000 degree F. Reheated steam to the last 13 stages of the turbine. The Roxboro plant is shown below in a recent photo by Duke Energy. This plant was started up as CP&L and was later absorbed to be part of Duke Energy.
Reasonable Cost, Abundant, Reliable and Dispatchable Coal and Nuclear Provide the lowest Cost Electricity in the World
The Roxboro plant is still in operation and it is rated at 2462 MW generation capacity. Let me digress with a short anecdote. Back in the time frame of about 1975 I was involved in an ASME meeting in Niagara Falls, NY. As part of the group, we were given a tour of the Niagara Falls Hydro plant on the U.S. side of the river downstream of the falls. I was struck at the time with the realization that all of the water feeding several of the Great Lakes provides (on the U.S. side) about the same generation capacity as the Roxboro Thermal Plant did. A real world lesson in “Energy Density”. Roxboro’s four units are rated 2,462 MW, the Robert Moses Hydroelectric plant 2,300 MW. This comparison is one I find helpful when non-energy trained people ask why are coal plants necessary? It helps to explain the enormous energy density of a coal fueled power plant.
Niagara Falls, Robert Moses Hydroelectric Plant, about five miles downstream of Niagara Falls, From NY Power Authority website
Fuel Diversity Helps Keep Costs Down, All Fuels Are Important
I joined Riley Stoker in 1969 and worked at Tampa Electric on the final acceptance work of the Gannon Station Units 5 & 6. Then on to the SCE&G Waterree plant for the startup of Riley’s first and only supercritical steam generator. Wateree is still running today and it was very successful. After startup of Wateree #1, I was sent to the City of Lakeland, Florida to finish the startup of the 80 MW oil and gas fueled Power Plant #3 (now named McIntosh) The unique and difficult design of this unit was that it was a stand alone, single unit with no steam connections to another unit. It was fueled by heavy oil, #6 or also known as Bunker C. The oil required heating to about 220 degrees F. to reduce the viscosity for satisfactory atomization and complete burning in the furnace. Because there was no gas or steam connections, the startup entailed firing on Diesel fuel until the boiler had at least 1000 psi drum pressure. Then the stored energy of the boiler would be used to heat and circulate oil from the Heavy oil supply tank. It sounds simple enough, however when the new controls and safety interlocks were all in startup mode, unproven and with numerous glitches, steam pressure would be lost and the operation on diesel fuel would need to be repeated. Any field engineer with experience in oil firing Utility boilers knows the importance of steam or compressed air cleaning of the Ljungstrom regenerative air heaters to prevent fires. That is the reason I was sent to Lakeland. The previous startup engineer was not careful about airheater cleaning and both airheaters were destroyed by fires. I was sent to replace that unfortunate startup engineer.
Oil firing was common in the 1970’s because it was competitive with coal at $0.50/million Btu. After Lakeland I was sent to lead the startup of Jacksonville Electric Authority’s Northside #2. A 325 MW heavy oil fueled boiler. Then off to CP&L Sutton #3, a 420 MW fueled at startup with heavy oil and with provisions for future coal fuel. America’s power demand was rapidly growing, especially in the south where air conditioning and heat pumps were taking off in popularity. As I recall peak load growth was about 10% per year. To illustrate the rapid growth in electric demand, here is my recollection of the units added at CP&L over a five year period:
Robinson #2, 700 MW, 1970 (Nuclear)
Asheville Unit #2, 200 MW, 1971 (coal)
Sutton Unit #3, 420 MW , 1972 (coal/oil)
Roxboro Unit #3, 720MW, 1973 (coal)
Brunswick Unit #1, 836 MW, 1975 (nuclear)
During this time period (1970-1977) CP&L was a regional Utility separate from Duke Energy. The total installed capacity of CP&L back during this time was about 6,000 MW. Therefore, the rapid system load growth is illustrated by the addition of five generating units totaling 2,876 MW in generation capacity in just five years. It was a great time to be involved in the power industry… And then came the Oil Embargo and some difficult times for the industry.
City of Lakeland, Power Plant #3, Now there are three Units, including a 360 MW coal unit #3. Picture by Dick Storm about 1971
During 1973 the U.S. government supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab nations.
At the time of the first oil embargo, 1973-1974, the EPA had been creating needed air pollution rules to reduce emissions from coal fueled power plants. Amongst the first pollutants to be addressed, was particulates. Before the Oil Embargo coal cost and oil cost per million Btus was about the same, right at $0.50 per million Btu. Therefore to reduce emissions fast, Utilities had an economic choice of converting coal plants to oil fuel which has nearly zero ash content or install millions of dollars of backend equipment, including electrostatic precipitators. Carolina Power and Light Company took the path of installing electrostatic precipitators on the newest units (Asheville #2, Sutton #3 and Roxboro #3) and converting the older, smaller coal units to being fueled by oil. Many utilities to the north, including VEPCO, PEPCO, Philadelphia Electric and others, chose the fuel oil conversion route to reduce particulates with less capital cost than installing electrostatic precipitators. This could be done with much lower costs to the consumer because the coal and heavy oil costs were about the same on the fuel cost/million BTU. About $0.50/mmb. Fuel cost is the largest single component of electricity production cost. Comprising between 75 and 92% of the production cost. Thus, when fuel costs escalate, so does the electricity production cost increase.
The Oil Embargo made an immediate fuel supply shortage for all petroleum products and including residual #6 heavy fuel oil. This is when, in my recollections, that major “Wheeling of Power” across state lines became common. The Utilities in the states to the north of CP&L were; VEPCO, PEPCO, Delmarva and Philadelphia Electric. They could receive coal generated electricity from Duke Power, CP&L and other southern Utilities across state lines using existing Transmission interconnections by wheeling power. This was before RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) were created.
The 1973-1980 time frame was difficult for Utilities and some had to cut once reliable dividends to stockholders and some went Bankrupt (Consolidated Edison in NY had a particularly difficult time) due to the volatile fuel costs.
National Energy Act of 1978
The energy shock of the oil embargo prompted Congress and the President to act on energy policy. Also during this time the Alaska Pipeline was approved and built(15). Jimmy Carter signed the first Energy Act in 1978.
America’s electricity supply has remained reliable and of reasonable cost for all of my lifetime. Below is a chart of world electricity prices in 2009 which shows the comparison of U.S. electricity prices to other industrialized countries of the world.
Shown on the chart of electricity costs above is Denmark and the Netherlands which were two of the first countries to implement wind farms for significant portions of their power generation.
America up to about 2012 used coal fuel for over 50% of our electricity production. Reasonable cost, reliable, abundant and dispatchable coal, generation powered the largest economy in the world. Reasonable cost electricity and GDP tend to parallel each other as shown on the graph below.
Coal Plant Efficiency Rankings
Up until the war on coal, coal plant designers, operators and maintenance personnel took pride in striving for the best overall efficiency. The best yearly coal plant efficiencies were typically from well run supercritical steam pressure units. Duke Power, PEPCO and AEP typically held the top positions. Duke Power’s Marshall and Belews Creek had repeatedly good years. Here is a typical ranking from 2013, Power Engineering Magazine:
I personally remember many meetings with Utility engineering management where the topic of discussion was modifications to the boilers and fuel burning equipment so that fuel changes could be made to reduce the production costs of power and at the same time, reduce emissions. One fuel change that was popular in the 1990’s was to convert coal plants designed for eastern Bituminous coal to fire western Powder River Basin fuel. This reduced emissions of NOx and kept production cost of power reasonable.
The Shale Gas Revolution
The combination of Hydraulic fracturing and Directional Drilling created an enormously large boost in U.S. natural gas production beginning about 2012. Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub dropped from a high of over $12.00/million BTU to about $2.00/million BTU in 2012. This abundance of natural gas fuel at this price, was competitive with well run, efficient coal plants. Then, the E.P.A. ramped up restrictions on coal plant emissions but the consumer was insulated from electricity price hikes because many natural gas CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) plants were being built and fuel diversity allowed the Utilities to switch generation from coal plants to new, highly efficient CCGT generating units.
The vastly increased supply of natural gas drove the price of gas down to below the cost of coal on a unit heating value basis. Gas dropped to below $2.00 per million Btu. Also during this time period, gas turbine-combined cycle plant efficiencies increased to the range of 60%. Power generation efficiencies over the years is shown on the graph below. The combination of low cost natural gas and enormous efficiency advantage of CCGT plants greatly increased the use of natural gas fuel for power generation. Keep in mind, the advantage of natural gas fuel is only an advantage when there are pipelines to provide the fuel and there is an abundant natural gas supply. This does not work well in all states, such as Massachusetts and Hawaii.
The combinations of low fuel cost, low Capital cost, low environmental emissions controls cost and greatly increased efficiency together made natural gas fuel more economically attractive than coal for new generating plants. The fuel of choice became natural gas for Utilities that had pipelines and sources of natural gas fuel. Coal fuel accounted for 50% of electricity generation in 2004 but was reduced to 23% by the increased use of more economical natural gas by 2019.
Duke Energy, Buck Station CCGT Plant
America is Blessed with Enormous Energy and Mineral Resources
America has plenty of Coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear fuels to power our economy and our life styles. I have written other blog posts on the relationship of energy and economic prosperity. Specifically, our lifestyles and our industrial production requires on average, about 315 +/- 15 million Btus of energy each year per person This equates to about 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy per year for our country. This level of energy requirement has held steady for about twenty five years. More on the need for 100 Quads of energy/year are here,here, here and here (20, 21, 22, 23) . Up until the manufactured climate hoax and war on carbon, America enjoyed reasonable cost, reliable electricity and also gasoline, Diesel and Jet Fuel supplies. America became energy independent in 2020.
Energy Growth and Clean Air Too!
Protection of the environment is important to all of us, including me. In fact, much of my career was invested in improving efficiency and reducing emissions of coal generating plants. There has been steady progress in cleaning the air and water of the U.S. and I would be remiss if I did not show that during the preceding eight decades in spite of population growth, increases in the number of miles driven and the growth of the economy, the real pollutants have been drastically reduced from the levels of the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s. The chart below was prepared by the EPA.
Two of the Last Clean Coal Plants Built in America
Coal plants are robust, reliable and when properly maintained can run safely and reliably for over fifty years. Several of the plants that I have personal experience with were mentioned above. However, newer designs with greater efficiency and improved emission controls should be built to replace the aging plants. In 2008 there were plans for dozens of new, clean coal plants to be built. Two magnificent examples are the John Turk Plant and the (then called Cliffside) #6 Unit at Rogers Energy Center in S.C.
Duke’s Rogers Energy Center Unit #6 Startup 2013AEP-John Turk Plant, Arkansas
Example of Many New Coal & Nuclear Plants, Planned and Should Have Been Built 2012-2022
Santee-Cooper Pee Dee Plant, Planned to Be Built near Florence, SC
The Pee Dee Energy Center is one example of dozens of new, clean, efficient coal plants that were planned but cancelled due to political pressure of the environmental activists. I predict that these plants will be sorely missed during the winter peak power generation periods in December 2023 and January 2024. So will the Summer Nuclear Units #2 & 3 be missed.
Slide of Summer 2 & 3 and Vogtle Plant Construction from Dick Storm USCB-OLLI Course
Summary
My contribution to the progress made in the last 80 years was very modest and I will quickly admit that. However, because I worked with many talented and visionary engineers and in hundreds of generating plants around the world, I had a very good position to observe the progress of the giants in our industry. Engineers with a Vision of abundant, clean and reasonable cost electricity generation. To mention a few of these giants: Admiral Hyman Rickover, Bill Lee of Duke Power, Mendall Long of CP&L, Bill McCall of Santee-Cooper and many more fine engineers like them. What were their goals? To improve the quality of life, security, safety, economic growth, ensure that reasonable cost power could be produced for decades into the future, provide Bulk Power at the lowest possible cost to attract industry, increase industrial output, provide good paying jobs in their service territory, and design power plants that provide environmental protection for all of the citizens.
During the last 80 years nuclear power became a reality and today about 19% of our electricity is generated from clean, carbon free nuclear power plants. Many are now over fifty years old, but still reliable and inexpensive producers of vital electricity.
Natural gas generation has progressed from the first simple cycle unit built by G-E in 1949 at about 25% efficiency to today’s combined cycle gas turbine plants that at optimum load points can operate at over 60% thermal efficiency. They are amongst the most efficient machines ever built, of any kind.
Ultra-supercritical, clean coal plants such as Turk and Rogers #6 have been developed to provide reliable, reasonable cost, clean and importantly, Dispatchable power generation. There should have been built more like these Why? Because fuel diversity is important when one fuel becomes short in supply. For example, the 1973-74 Oil Embargo. Today most of the Dispatchable electricity generation is from natural gas which of course, flows through pipelines. Pipelines are reliable but, fuel storage is not practical. Coal plants, on the other hand, can store several months fuel supply on site.
Fuel Diversity is important for electricity generation reliability. I am proud to have worked during these years to do my best to make a small contribution to the great progress that was accomplished.
Part 2 will describe the self induced end of reliability, affordability and dispatch ability of electricity generation. As Dr. Euan Mearns recently wrotein “Watts Up With That”….The “Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”(19)
It is my best hope that America and our politicians will wake up and understand the importance of primary energy from conventional sources.
Yours very truly,
Dick Storm, October 4, 2023
References
You Tube video of a “Living Better Electrically” ad hosted by Ronald Reagan, who was with the G-E Theater on Sunday nights for 8 years 1953-1962: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Lz1C53RwI
This post will be shorter than previous posts. At the end is a compendium of a long list of references, news articles, documents, reports and facts that the reader can use to gain further understanding and judge for yourself.
Purpose
My main concern with the so-called transition to reduced carbon generation is, that it is disconnected from reality and there is no plan to keep an adequate energy supply for the sustaining of our current life styles, industrial production, freedom of travel and economic prosperity. Therefore the purpose of this post is to provide a path for you the reader to research for yourself how the impossible to achieve Net-Zero policies came to be and the people & organizations that are behind these destructive policies.
Nefarious Regulations to Harm the U.S. are Inspired from Both U.S.Based NGO’s and Foreign Sources
The U.S. government policies and EPA Regulations are created by Ideologues, Socialists, a select group of Billionaires and environmental zealots. The climate policies are so un-American that they seem to be directed from adversaries with nefarious purposes to deliberately weaken America. I include the U.N. which is led by a Socialist (63). Also, the Klaus Schwab led World Economic Forum. In addition to the U.N. and the WEF, there are in fact, some substantiated reports of Dark money from America and Europe’s adversaries to work with U.S. based NGO’s against the best interests of America. See references below ( 82-113 ) One example is the NATO reported anti-Fracking influence reported by “Anders Fogh Rasmussen, secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), and former premier of Denmark, he told the Chatham House think tank in London on Thursday that Vladimir Putin’s government was behind attempts to discredit fracking, according to reports.” This is from the Guardian, June 19, 2014.
Rasmussen said: “I have met allies who can report that Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organisations – environmental organisations working against shale gas – to maintain European dependence on imported Russian gas.”
Today the people in charge of U.S. energy policy have risen from their College graduations through paths of training and experience in Political Science, Law or Environmental Activism, progression of elected offices or University Teaching. None of the energy policy makers that I am aware, have had any significant power generation technical or power generation business experience or training as energy professionals or power engineers. Most are career politicians. The politicians and/or their “Green” policies are supported by well funded environmental extremist groups, many leaders of these NGO’s have passed through a revolving door of employment from activist NGO’s to high level Bureaucratic positions. This is chronicled in the 2015 Congressional report, here.(69) The funds of these groups are tax sheltered and of enormous value. The collective wealth is measured in Billions of dollars in resources. Listed at the end of this post is a compendium of references. The Capital Research Center has listed the financial resources of some on the “Influence Watch” website. Also, the Competitive Enterprise Institute has listed some of the wealthiest. These career politicians and bureaucrats are strongly supported by NGO’s My previous Blog in the January post listed numerous Climate and Energy Influencers. These influencers of energy policy have no background in energy production or power generation. So, the energy and electricity generation policies that have been forced onto the American citizens and many energy intensive industries are struggling because of increasing electricity costs) productive industries are either not well thought out or forced on America to intentionally harm our country. The so called “Transition to Renewables” is not a planned process as a group of experienced electric utility planning engineers would methodically produce. That is, if it was even possible to replace fossil fuels and nuclear with solar and wind. It is not possible to replace conventional energy with wind and solar. I have presented my analysis in meetings and have written blog posts on this. Two of my presentations.blog posts are here and here.
The so called “Climate Policies” are simply a wrongheaded fast track approach to Decarbonize Bulk Power Generation, Transportation and Industry. In essence, “Electrify Everything” and do so without knowing the consequence of sabotaging America’s Energy & Electricity Generation Infrastructure.
Here are some of the key persons responsible for the current “Green New Deal” or so-called “Inflation Reduction Act”, which codifies the green policies. In my opinion, at best they are all energy illiterate. At worst, they are intentionally weakening America.
John Kerry– Special Envoy for Climate . Background: Politician and trained in Political Science. A “Green” Ideologue that has spent his entire career as a politician. His recent speech to the WEF attacked Farmers and food production. Although he travels in luxury via Jet fuel guzzling private jets, he advocates reducing the quality of life of the rest of us, including the amount and type of food that we eat and the fuel used to cook it.
Gina McCarthy, Past EPA Administrator in Obama Administration and past Chief Executive Officer at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) This lady presided over the most effective times of the war on coal by the EPA since 1970. Her employment, like many other top EPA officials cycled back and forth between anti coal NGO’s and government(69, 70). Two references are here and here. In my mind, I have a serious concern for Mrs. McCarthy’s allegiance and interest in leading the EPA for the best interests of America and our citizens. It is my understanding that McCarthy is not (at least not officially employed) in government at this writing but her actions as head of the EPA were very harmful to our country.
Michael Regan–EPA Administrator Past employment head of N.C. Dept of Environmental Quality and was a past employee of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).
Joe Goffman A high level EPA official, I am not sure of his present title. Here is a newspaper op-ed by West Virginia Senator Shelly Moore Capito, in WVA “Intelligencer” Newspaper, July 2022. (125)
Deb Haaland Secretary of Dept of Interior: Past experiences as Gov. of New Mexico. Has advocated policies to reduce access to American energy reserves.
The people and a short resume of each Biden Administration Cabinet member is listed below in references 67 and 75-80 thanks to the Capital Research Center’s Robert Stilson. The Congressional representatives that have come to positions of high influence are listed in an article in E& E News, here.
Barrack Obama ramped up the war on carbon during his two terms in office. His appointment of Gina McCarthy as EPA Chief was devastating to coal plants. Weaponization of government agencies by using a revolving door for employment of environmental extremists is documented in a report to Congress here. It was during Obama’s tenure as President that the impossible to achieve 54.5 mpg fleet fuel economy standard was initiated. In essence, this was an EV Mandate in 2012. The report of Obama’s Carbon Mandate is covered by a report of the 114th Congress(69).
Al Gore. His background is well known. His scare mongering claims of the movie “Inconvenient Truth” and other activities have been debunked by real scientists but the MSM loves him and his scare tactics, aided by “Woke” Entertainment and the Mainstream Media have out-shouted true science. His dire predictions of sea level rise, melting off the North Pole and other claims have been debunked. The Capital Research Center prepared a report of his 30 years of errors here.
President Joe Biden has continued and expanded the war on carbon that Clinton & Obama started. He has unashamedly accelerated the decline of America, including the weakening of the U.S. military in the name of “Climate Change”. Even absurdly() pushing to electrify the Military. The Heritage Foundation report is here which describes some of the anti-American conventional energy policies. Also, the Institute for Energy Research reports here. Harold Hamm’s book, “Game Changer” pages 128-130 list the Biden Administration’s actions against all fossil fuels.(148)
Senator Ed Markey has served in Congress since 1976. Clearly a career politician and green ideologue.(128)
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez along with Senator Ed Markey, Cori Bush and others, has become very influential in creating energy policy in Washington. I am not saying they have sinister or evil intentions, it is just the fact that they do not understand energy and electricity generation. They obtain technical advice from activist organizations and people that also either do not understand the science of power generation or they have other agenda(s) that is/are being promoted, such as the U.N. Agenda 21, U.N.-IPCC and World Economic Forum’s “Great Reset”.(120, 147, 152)
U.S. Billionaire’s that contribute to funding NGO’s that are working against the best interests of America. Perhaps they mean well, but….they are contributing to the harm of our country. Forbes provided a list of some of them, here. The Heartland Institute also has many publications by Paul Driessen, here.
On Electricity Reliability
What Does NERC Say? They should Know? NERC is “North American Electric Reliability Council”
The following is an excerpt from the August 2023 ERO (Electric Reliability Organization) Report. The #1 Risk is “Energy Policy”(149, 153)
“The Five Significant Evolving Risk Profiles
The five significant evolving risk profiles, which are not independent from each other, result from the previous mentioned electric industry developments. Given the rate of change and increase in regulations and policies that drive industry activities, there is need to address policy matters that impact the grid.
Energy Policy at the federal, province, state, provincial and local levels is providing incentives and targets for resource changes and end-use applications of electricity. It is further contributing to the Grid Transformation, which includes the shift away from conventional synchronous central-station generators toward a new mix of resources that include natural-gas-fired generation; unprecedented proportions of non-synchronous resources, including renewables and energy storage; demand response; smart- and micro-grids; and other emerging technologies which will be more dependent on communications and advanced coordinated controls that can increase the potential Security Risks. Collectively, the new resource mix can be more susceptible to long-term, widespread Extreme Events, such as extreme temperatures or sustained loss of wind/solar, that can impact the ability to provide sufficient energy as the fuel supply is less certain. Furthermore, there is an associated increase in Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies. For example, for natural-gas-fired generation, there is increased interdependency on delivery of fuel from the natural gas industry that also depends on electricity to support its ability to extract and transport gas. “
America’s Power as issued a statement of facts regarding the importance of coal power generation during the recent heat wave, here. (151) In August 2022 I gave a presentation to the Columbus Energy Forum, ENERUM, where I presented my concerns.(20) Those of us that understand energy and electricity generation have known an energy crisis was coming. Another prescient author is Mr. Donn Dears. He has written numerous books on “Net Zero Carbon”, the Clean Energy Crisis and the dangers of following the UN-IPCC. (26, 35, 154) Another expert is Vaclav Smil who has also written numerous books on the importance of conventional forms of energy and energy density. (15)
The Six Headed Monster of the War on Conventional Energy under the Guise of “Climate Policies”
The U.S. politicians are clearly energy illiterate and are driven by ideological and radical agendas that are not in the best interests of America. However, combined with these activist politicians are International organizations and the worldwide green movement. It is more a war on the western free world than a movement to save the earth, protect the environment or human health. My opinion of the six entities that are ruining America (and the rest of the western world) is depicted as “The six headed monster”. A slide I used for several presentations is shown on the illustration below:
Energy
America uses right at 100 Quadrillion Btu’s of primary energy from all sources each year. About 37% of the primary energy is used to generate electricity. About 90% of the primary energy we depend on is produced from conventional forms, including natural gas, gasoline, Diesel, coal, hydroelectric and nuclear. I have written numerous posts to explain. Here are six links to provide more depth of my conclusion:
Do you remember the Oil Embargo of 1973-74? How about a Hurricane or severe weather that killed your power for a day or more? These events fortunately have not occurred very frequently. However, the self sabotaging energy and electricity generation policies of our government are creating a path for power shortages to be the new normal. Remember the Texas winter storm of 2021 which killed over 200 people? How about the Christmas 2022 Blackouts of 2022 in North Carolina and Tennessee? Do you remember the ice storm in Virginia a couple years ago which left travelers stranded on I-95? The EV’s that had to be abandoned?
This winter, according to NERC, could be difficult. Expect Rolling Blackouts and literal electricity rationing. The Utilities call it “Demand Response”, but it is rationing. including driving EV’s. The Bureaucrats making these decisions do not know the difference between Primary and Secondary energy and they want us all to “Electrify Everything”
The Climate Policies are not about saving the planet, improving human health or protecting the environment. They are about one world government.
If America does not wake up soon, we will decline to a state of energy poverty with less freedom to travel, reduced quality of life and a weaker country. Those of us old enough to remember the 1973-74 Oil Embargo know what it is like with restricted energy supply.
Then there is the concern of keeping America Great and to compete for jobs and economic prosperity.
My Prayer for America is that the citizens , politicians and “woke” corporations will all wake up and push back on the government policies that are destroying our country. Take a look at the references below and especially the references that identify the NGO’s, career politicians and Bureaucrats that are destroying the America that I have been Blessed to live for the last 80 years.
Respectfully, for the love of our country and hope that America will remain the greatest nation in the world for my grandchildren,
Dick Storm, September 20, 2023
References for Further Research and Reading to substantiate My strong understanding of current energy and climate policies
66. Book: “Merchants of Despair” by Robert Zubrin, on Radical Environmentalists, CriminalPseudo-Scientists and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism: Published 2012 by Encounter Books and again in 2016 by the Heartland Institute
Energy & Environmental Policy by U.S. Political Science and Foreign Influence
69. This report reveals much of what is wrong with the EPA. 114th Congress Report on Obama Carbon Policies and the revolving door of key people from well funded & Influential NGO Green Groups: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
122. Sheldon Whitehouse’s new book where he will claim the opposition party does what he and his party have done very effectively, for decades: “The Scheme, where He accuses Republicans of using Dark Money”, when in fact, the Democrats do it much more: https://thenewpress.com/books/scheme
Dick Storm's Thoughts on Energy, Education, Economic Prosperity & Environmental Blog 