The Finland GTK organization has provided comprehensive and well researched information on the challenges of providing adequate minerals for the future. I recommend referring to their excellent work. (1) Also, the National Mining Association has excellent information on their web page. (2) The current slogan for the NMA is, “Minerals Make Life”. I would add, minerals, lots of minerals are also needed for the transition to more renewable power generation. Even then, as a friend pointed out to me, the exotic minerals do not produce electricity until they are incorporated into final products such as solar panels or wind turbines. Electricity produced from renewables cannot make the products needed by society. See Ron Stein’s explanation for more on the importance of crude oil. (8, 9)
Mining and Power
My background and expertise is in electric power generation, not mining. So, why am I writing this if I am not a mining expert? The reason is, although my experiences are in combustion and power, over the last 60 years or so I traveled the world with involvement in power plants and ore processing facilities that provided electricity and combustion systems required for the mining of aluminum, copper, coal and steel. The fact is that both internal combustion engine powered vehicles and EV’s, all require lots of copper, steel and aluminum. As technologies advance for more reduced carbon power generation and use, so will the requirements for Rare Earth minerals, Uranium as well as the more common metals. Aluminum requires the most electricity for smelting of all common metals, about 5 kWh per pound. Copper mining requires a fair amount of electricity as well. For example, I once worked at the Freeport-McMoran copper mine in Irian Jaya (now called West Papua) and it had 180 MW of conventional generation just to run the ore processing equipment. A good read is the Forbes Wilson book, “Conquest of Copper Mountain” which is better than fiction on the story of how one of the largest copper mines in the world came to be. (7) Let’s get back to minerals and metals.
Time to Wake Up!
This is the title of the GTK report and I have taken the liberty of using some of the illustrations from GTK. The first slide in the GTK presentation shows the relationship of metal/minerals required by 2050 compared to the current world use of coal, oil and gas. My previous articles have elaborated on the need to supply the U.S. alone with 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy. Mr. Michaux provides the graphic below as another approach to communicating the need of minerals.
The metals and minerals needed for batteries alone is enormous. GTK shows the relationship of minerals used now and minerals needed as more power generation is produced from renewables and more electricity is used for transportation.
Energy is required to produce these metals. Lots of energy, both primary energy such as Diesel fuel as well as electricity which is secondary energy. For example, take a look at the 400 ton mine haul truck below. This modern and efficient truck uses a 4,000 hp Diesel engine for propulsion. Keep in mind that ore deposits are mostly dirt with a little bit of metal. Typical rich copper deposits are about 1 -2% copper. So, it takes about 50-100 tons of ore to produce one ton of copper. Plus, lots of energy for processing. I also worked at a gold mine in Nevada and there the gold content of the ore was 0.2 ounce per ton of dirt and rock. So, it takes huge haul trucks to move a lot of dirt and rock for these small percentages of metal.
Conclusions
The path to Net-Zero Carbon is not possible by 2050 for many reasons. The one limitation highlighted in this article is the need for enormous quantities of new metals and critical minerals. Also, huge amounts of energy to power the mining, processing and manufacturing. The U.S. government regulations are biased against mining as well as against conventional energy use. Our government seems to hate to use our natural resources. Another slogan used by the NMA that I saw bumper stickers at a Trona mine was “If it isn’t Grown, it is Mined”. See the Competitive Enterprise Institute list of 10,000 Commandments.(6) I invite the reader to visit the web sites of GTK and the National Mining Association. They are experts in minerals and metals and offer outstanding information on their web sites.
What about Nuclear Power?
Nuclear power generation provides the greatest amount of carbon free electricity. Nuclear is the most likely solution for reduced carbon electricity expansion. Since the 1990s, despite ample domestic reserves, the U.S. has increasingly relied on imported uranium for use in nuclear power plants. Our near complete import reliance for uranium is concerning, including 60 percent of our uranium imports coming from Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The U.S. is currently heavily reliant on China for advanced rare earth materials needed for EVs, wind energy, and other advanced technologies, including those needed for national defense. This need not be the case, whether for uranium, rare earths or other energy materials. The NMA has further information on uranium, rare earth minerals and mining. (2, 4)
A great read not only fascinating but also better than fiction! The story of the development of a copper mine in Irian Jaya, Indonesia: “The Conquest of Copper Mountain” by Forbes Wilson, 1981
I was recently invited to a local civic club and my host asked that I focus on the limitations of minerals and difficulty of replacing conventional fuels with wind and solar. Here are some of the slides and my explanation which I used to attempt to drive the point home: The U.S. does not have an orderly and rational energy transition plan only a “War on Carbon”. In my opinion, conventional energy will be needed far beyond 2050 if we are to continue our high quality of life and freedom of travel.
Here are some of the challenges and impracticality of replacing fossil fuels with carbon free energy. Let’s start with food and agriculture. About 1% of the total primary energy used in the world is consumed for producing fertilizer. Ammonia fertilizer is incredibly important to food production. Vaclav Smil has researched and written that if production of synthetic ammonia fertilizer was stopped, then about 50% of the world’s population could not be fed.
The figure above shows a modern farm tractor powered by Diesel fuel. The table below shows the sources of 94% of our primary energy used during the year 2022. Wind and solar provided less than 6% of our Primary Energy.
The bottom line on primary energy is simply this.
Over 90% of our primary energy is provided by conventional sources and that if reduced carbon emissions are really to be achieved, there needs to be a rational path forward. Not the irrational and unthoughtful path of demonizing and attempting to ban fossil fuels. Let’s move on to see why Net-Zero Carbon is impossible to achieve by 2050 using the current policies from Washington. That is, impossible if we are still to keep our freedom and our high quality of life.
Just as a reminder: Electricity is Secondary energy. It takes Primary energy to generate electricity. Forms of primary energy are nuclear, natural gas, coal, biomass, hydro plants, wind, geothermal and solar. (1, 26 & 27)
What Would it Take to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon by 2050?
My friend Donn Dears wrote numerous books on the destructive war on carbon. In fact, he was the inspiration for me to start this blog. Unfortunately, Donn recently passed away, but he left a legacy of books on energy education for us to refer. His last book published in 2023 is “Clean Energy Crisis”. In this book, Mr. Dears lays out the facts of what it would take to replace conventional fossil fuel energy. In chapter 8, here is his basic analysis:
It should be pointed out that the above refers to replacement of Primary energy from fossil fuels for electricity generation to be replaced by carbon free sources. Reminder: Bulk Power electricity requires about 37% of Primary energy. The other 63% of primary energy is used for motor vehicle use, shipping, Industrial production, jet fuel, heating of homes, commercial buildings, cooking, food production and agriculture.
The Reality of the transition to renewables, according to Mr. Dears is summarized in two statements:
It is impossible for the United States to achieve Net-Zero carbon by 2050.
CO2 is not an existential threat to mankind.
These two statements are direct quotations from chapter #8 of “Clean Energy Crisis” by Donn Dears.
Conclusions
Here are some of the Reasons why I also believe achieving Net-Zero Carbon is Impossible by 2050:
There arelimited mining and production facilities to produce the Metals to Build Batteries and EV’s
Wind whether offshore or on Land Requires Enormous Acreage (22)
Wind & Solar Provide Intermittent & Non Dispatchable Generation
Battery Electricity Storage Technology is Not yet Commercially Available for Long TermStorage of Bulk Power
U.S. Regulations on Mining & Manufacturing are Too Restrictive
U.S. Heavy Manufacturing Cannot Ramp Up in Time. The American manufacturing facilities for nuclear power plant components has been lost and needs to be rebuilt. This will take decades.
China controls much of the critical minerals, materials and manufacturing
The required number of new nuclear power plants cannot be designed, manufactured and constructed by 2050
Hopefully, the American People Willbecome informed and vote for energy wise leadership that will implement practical and science based energy and climate policies
The current path to Net Zero Carbon is a fictional delusion driven by the largest scientific hoax in history.
Sources of Primary Energy for Electricity Generation, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial and Residential uses. Electricity generation was described in part 1, here. The purpose of this article is to describe where the other 63% of the Primary Energy is used and why gasoline, Diesel, jet fuel, natural gas remain important to sustaining our high quality of living, food production (91,92) and freedom to travel. The Primary energy consumed numbers below are from the LLNL energy flow chart for 2022, published a few weeks ago.(1)
Precious articles that I have written cover the importance of energy in our lives. In particular, how each of us uses between 833,000 and a million BTUs of energy each and every day to power our lives. Here. Also on how conventional forms of energy provide most of the energy we depend on every day. Here and Here.
The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has provided Energy Flow Diagrams for the Department of Energy for many years. The chart below shows the updated, total Primary energy flows for the year 2022. A green oval surrounds the 5.7% Primary energy provided by wind and solar. Yes, that is right, wind and solar together provided less than 6% of the total PRIMARY energy used by Americans during all of 2022.
The fact is, after many years of government subsidies, wind and solar are still single digits of the total primary energy sources to power our lives. America depends on over 94% of our total primary energy from conventional forms of primary energy. 79% from fossil fuels. The chart below is from the U.S. Dept. of Energy EIA website.
The topic for this article is Fuel Diversity. The Conventional primary energy chart 1776-2022 shows the progress through history of how our quality of life, industrial production and economy improved to become better and better. From the days of the 1960’s when the theme was “Living Better Electrically”(93) up until current time, more energy was needed to replace muscle power for these improvements in quality of life and freedom. Here. Then, as noted in previous articles, since about the year 2000, America has needed and used a steady 100 Quadrillion Btus of total primary energy. In fact, 2022 was exactly 100.3 Quadrillion Btus. This primary energy can be sourced from a variety of fuels for electricity generation and for some other uses as is shown on the EIA chart above. However, when transportation is considered, the choices of substitution of fuels becomes more dependent on energy density. In other words, Jet Fuel cannot be replaced by nuclear, coal or natural gas.
Ron Stein wrote an excellent article on the importance of oil and what if we returned to life as it was in the 1800’s? It is here. Some excerpts from his CFACT article entitled, “What if We Went Back to a Fossil Fuel Free Society like the 1800’s?”:
The pre-1800s, when the world had no fuels other than wood, dung, and crop waste and used animals for transport. (Kindly refer to the chart above, Fuels used 1776-2022)
A food crisis in which billions will die. Fossil fuels are used to plant, harvest, process, refrigerate, deliver, and cook food for most of the 8 billion people living on earth. And for the plastic to keep it safe and fresh a lot longer.
A forest and wildlife crisis as billions go back to using wood as their primary cooking and home heating fuel. Cutting down forests. The air would be far dirtier because of burning wood for fuel.
There would be no products that are based on oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil, coal, and natural gas! Such as life-saving medical equipment, plastics, many chemicals that make our lives better, and just about everything we take to be modern, such as cell phones.
The elimination of all of today’s militaries and space programs as the world reverts to when civilization existed without oil.
Eliminate the need for major shipping ports that accommodate military and cruise ships.
Eliminate the more than50,000 merchant ships that are moving products around the world that are made with the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil, coal, and natural gas!
Thank you Ron Stein for your excellent analyses. Then there are the National defense aspects of energy independence. I wrote on this before too. Here, Here, Here and Here.
Electrify Transportation? What is the Motive?
President Obama and the U.S. auto manufacturing executives agreed to what became an effective EV Mandate in 2012. This was not what Americans wanted and not in the best interests of our country. But, folks, it was during the Obama administration when the “War on Carbon” really started to have a severe impact on the un-American and unwise “Climate Policies” that the destructive Net-Zero Carbon path the Biden Administration has set our country on. My previous article on “How the War on Carbon began” is here. (63)
Conclusions
Americans and all of the free western world need conventional forms of energy to sustain our quality of life and freedom to travel. The government war on carbon is not about saving the planet or environmental protection, it is about control of our lives. Actually, the roots of the environmental activists really go back to Margaret Sanger, the Club of Rome, Paul Ehrlich’s book “The Population Bomb” and policies to limit population of the earth. The World Economic Forum and other activist organizations have advocated “De Industrialization and De Growth”. (19, 29, 30, 31,33)
Rather than solving problems through science and engineering as Fritz Haber did when he invented the Haber-Bosch process about 1908 for producing synthetic ammonia fertilizer and thus, provide increased food production for the people of the world. Read more here.(91) Also, Norman Borlaug who created the “Good and Beneficial Green Revolution” of food production through genetically improved crops.(92) I have written on some of those who are responsible for destructive green energy policies and the ineffectiveness of the United Nations. Here and here.
Whatever the motivations are for Net-Zero Carbon, it will not work and will only weaken our country and work against the best interests of Humanity. There definitely is both strong influence of Green Policies from foreign influence and from NGO’s. These influencers are working against the best interests of our great country. Check references below 19-90 to see for yourself. There are many others included below to support my conclusions and previous articles. Kindly spread the word. The 2024 election is coming and we do not need more energy ignorant, green energy biased and un-American elected officials.
Sheldon Whitehouse’s new book where he will claim the opposition party does what he and his party have done very effectively, for decades: “The Scheme, where He accuses Republicans of using Dark Money”, when in fact, the Democrats do it much more: https://thenewpress.com/books/scheme
Much has been written on the importance of energy to power a nation’s economy and to continue to provide a high quality Human Development Index. The purpose of this post is to focus on the importance of Fuel Diversity for electricity generation. There is a proven concept for energy storage for electricity generation. It is coal fueled power plants with a 30-60 day supply of coal in a pile, on site. This is proven to be reliable, low cost and safe.
Energy powers everything we do!
Think about this. You are probably reading this on a computer screen. Have a warm cup of coffee nearby and are sitting in an air conditioned office or home. Your car is sitting outside and at your urging is ready to provide transportation. You get the point. Remember the last hurricane or severe winter storm that killed power for a day or so? Loss of energy sources or electricity is debilitating. Think about the 1970’s Oil Embargoes. If you are too young to remember 1973-1979 check these references, here and here.
Primary Energy Sources-Back to Basics
Lets discuss energy and electricity and the sources and quantity of everyday energy that we depend on.
America has used right at 100 Quadrillion Btus of PRIMARY energy per annum since about the year 2000.
The energy we use is compiled by various government agencies in BTUs equivalent (British Thermal Units). A BTU is enough heat to raise one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit, just as a reminder of High School Physics. Each BTU converted to work is equivalent (at 100% efficiency) to 778 Foot Pounds. Therefore, the energy production and consumption is converted to BTUs so that all forms of energy can be reported on a like basis. I wrote an article on the basics of energy for Middle School students here if you are interested, also on “Demystifying Energy and Electricity” here.
This article is about fuel diversity. Just as I explained above regarding the reporting of energy in BTUs to have a common measurement of energy quantities, in some cases one fuel can be substituted for another, especially in electric power generation. Thermal Power Generation Plants that generate Bulk Power can be provided with natural gas, coal, oil, Biomass or nuclear energy to produce steam to drive a steam turbine generator. The fuel selected is done for reasons of economic or fuel availability. Hawaii is truly an Energy Island and thus cannot interconnect with the lower 48 states. Fuels for Thermal Power Generation needs to be imported. In fact, I wrote on Hawaii’s electricity generation in 2020, here.
The proportions of each form of energy used and depended on to power our lives has changed as technologies for extraction and production have improved. For example for electric power generation coal fuel was consumed for about 50% of power generation in year 2000. Then due to the Shale Revolution of Hydraulic Fracturing and Directional Drilling, natural gas became less expensive than coal on a $/million BTU basis. See my review of Harold Hamm’s book, Game Changer which covers the Shale Gas Revolution, here. Thus, gas was substituted for coal generation by many utilities that could get it. Alaska and Hawaii of course do not have pipelines to connect, but of many utilities in the lower 48 states, gas was an economical and clean fuel of choice.
Coal fuel in the U.S. today provides about 23 % of the primary energy to produce Bulk Electric Power over the year. The substitution of coal fuel as primary energy is natural gas which has become more economical as a result of the Shale gas revolution which took off about 2012. Electricity is SECONDARY Energy and must be produced from Primary energy. Electricity is important and in 2022 electricity consumed about a third (37.7% to be exact) of the total PRIMARY energy used in the U.S. The best factual illustration that I am aware, of the sources and consumption of primary energy is the LLNL Energy Flow Diagram, shown below. This is one of my favorite graphics and it is prepared each year by the Department of Energy. The chart above shows the total primary energy used since 1950 and thus supports my conclusion that America needs right at 100 Quads per year to sustain our quality of life, economy and industrial production.
The total Primary Energy used by the U.S. from coal fuel in 2022 was about 10% of the total. (9.91% from data above). That doesn’t seem like much does it? Remember, this is primary energy I am talking about. So, although coal only provided about 10% of our total primary energy it was in fact, Dispatchable, affordable and it provided electricity generation when solar and wind were not available. The chart below is of MISO generation by fuel this past summer. This example shows 40% of total power generation in MISO from coal at this moment in time.
The topic of this article is “The Importance of Fuel Diversity”. The example above of summer Bulk Power Generation depending on coal fueled power generation units is just one of many reasons America should keep our Fuel Diversity. Another example of the importance of coal plants and the consequences of shutting them down is discussed in my blog post discussing the February 2021 Texas Blackout that killed over 200 people. Here.
My previous post on De-Mystifying Energy attempted to explain this, here. The difference between Primary and Secondary Energy is important. If everything is Electrified as many suggest we should do, has anyone really thought through where the primary energy to do so is to be sourced? In my opinion, it has not. Wind and solar cannot replace the primary energy currently required. The four charts shown up to here should make that clear.
Government policy and many people in the general public believe that renewables can replace fossil fuels and nuclear. The harsh reality is that after decades of government subsidies & tax credits wind and solar provide less than 6% of our total PRIMARY energy. Here below is the LLNL Energy Flow Diagram from 2021 with the 4.96% wind and solar contribution circled.
Public demonization of all conventional fuels including nuclear, coal, gas, gasoline, Diesel are unAmerican and foolish. Wind and solar only provide single digits of the total Primary energy needed to power our lives and it will be impossible to ramp wind & solar renewables up to 100% of our energy needs. The charts above are from the government statistics as published on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sankey Diagram website, an excellent resource.
Back to Fuel Diversity
Each American citizen, on average is accustomed to using about 315 million Btus of energy per year. I have written separate articles on American energy use here and here. My first point is that we all need on average of about 863,000 to 1 million Btus each day in Total Primary Energy. This number is provided by dividing 330 million citizens into 100 Quadrillion Btus and then dividing that by 365 days/year = 863,000 BTUs per day/citizen of PRIMARY Energy. This is for all uses which (see LLNL chart above) including: Electricity generation, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial and Residential uses. The second important point is that providing this energy each day may be from various forms of energy. Depending on which is more efficient or more economical. Let’s take an example of electric generation on July 21, 2023 in the Midwest at about 2:00 PM in the afternoon (example above). It was more economical to use coal fuel for 40% of the electricity generation at that hour. It may have been, I do not know for sure, that only coal generation could deliver the electricity Demand at that moment. The fact is, coal delivered 40% of the electricity at that moment.
Let’s take another example from last winter. This example below is from Christmas week, 2022.
Fuel Diversity with more coal plants ready to operate and properly maintained could have avoided the Blackouts of Christmas week, 2022. Duke Energy has shut down many coal plants as part of their Net-Zero Carbon plan. So have many other Utilities, both Public and Investor Owned. I presented my views on this at the ENERUM (Columbus Ohio Energy Forum) in August 2022. My presentation is Here. Also, my recent article on the self sabotaging of our energy and electricity generation Grid is here.
Even well respected utilities that were once known for their outstanding leadership and engineering excellence are planning to shut more of their coal plants down in the near future. This works against Fuel Diversity! Here below is a screen print excerpt of the Duke Energy IRP for 2023:
These planned shut downs are in spite of the winter 2022 rolling Blackouts described above. Why? Because the N.C. politicians and top Duke management have agreed to follow a disastrous Net-Zero Carbon path. So has the S.C. Legislature and Santee-Cooper. I wrote about Santee-Cooper in an earlier article, here.
Energy Storage
My first instructor on electricity generation was in class in 1959. The instructor, Harry Park stated, “Electricity needs to be generated the instant that it is needed”. That stuck with me my entire career. Today intermittent renewables are the rage and of course, as Mr. Park stated in 1959, electricity needs to be generated or provided from storage the instant it is needed. That is what built America’s Grid and America’s strong economy. Reliable, affordable electricity available the instant it is needed or in today’s word, Demanded. The published articles I see regarding the justification of higher and higher percentages of wind and solar generation are dependent on electricity storage. The best and largest Bulk Power Storage systems today are “Pumped Storage Hydro”. Such as Duke Energy’s Bad Creek or TVA’s Raccoon Mountain. These work well where the local topography allows it. Bad Creek has about 1,200 ft of elevation change between the upper and lower reservoirs(21). Bad Creek is currently, according to N.C. Business Journal, being uprated to about 2,800 MW. TVA’s Raccoon Mountain provides 1,650 MW of storage. Two other alternatives for storage are batteries and hydrogen. The largest battery electric storage system (BESS) that I am aware is in California. This is at Moss Landing Plant in California. It is being uprated to 3,000 MWH. The “H” after MW means Hour. That means the electricity stored is good at the rated capacity for one hour. Enough time to start gas turbines or buy power from a neighboring utility on the grid. Hydrogen can be a source of storage too. However, it must be remembered that it takes about four times the input of electricity to produce one unit of Bulk Power from hydrogen. An excellent reference on this was published in Gas Turbine World Magazine in August 2022, Here. (22)
The most reliable, proven, safe and affordable form of Energy Storage: A large pile of coal onsite at a clean, efficient coal power plant. When I started in the power generation business in the 1960’s one of my experiences was in conducting a boiler efficiency test at a large power plant in Illinois. As I recall the explanation for the huge coal pile was, “Because of the possibility of Union walkouts at either the coal mines or the railroad, a 90 day supply of coal was required to be stored on site”. Proven, safe and affordable. The photo below is real long term energy storage. A coal pile can store enough energy for a 2,000 MW power plant to run full power for months, not hours as is currently planned for batteries.
These five categories of energy use are shown on the LLNL charts above. Americans with our current population of about 330 million, will need at least 100 Quads per year for the foreseeable future. If we are to sustain our quality of life and freedom to travel, we will continue to need about 100 Quads per year. This article is focussed on electricity generation and the 37% of America’s PRIMARY Energy used to generate Bulk Power. The second part of this article will cover the other 63% of our PRIMARY ENERGY.
Conclusion
It will be impossible to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar any time soon. Attempting to do so will create hardships, economic decline and a general weakness of our country including weakness of our National Security.
The best and most proven energy storage system that I have known through my entire career in power generation is a large coal pile. It was common for coal power plants to have 30 or 60 day supplies of coal storage on the plant site.
On a positive note, I wrote about the preceding 80 years the “Era of Affordable, Reliable Energy and Electricity Generation, Part 1” Here. America really did great things in making energy and electricity reliable and affordable for over 80 years. Coal plants became more efficient and clean, nuclear power came of age and America became energy independent and the largest producer of natural gas in the world. I chose 80 years because that covers my lifetime and I know the history of accomplishments during these times, because I worked in the power generation business for over 50 of those years. Experiences in design, maintenance, operations, tuning, upgrading, capacity improvements, Betterments, Heat-Rate Improvements, fuel flexibility, fouling and slagging reductions and emissions reductions of fossil power systems. I admit, I am not a policy wonk, I am a nuts and bolts power engineer. But, I have been gifted with many years of experiences and have traveled much of the world to witness the relationship of energy and economic prosperity.
The loss of legacy coal plants is threatening Bulk Power Supply Reliability by the loss of over 100,000 MW’s of reliable coal power generation capacity without replacing it in kind is wrong. I wrote on the “End of the Era of Reliable, Affordable Energy and Electricity” a couple weeks ago. It is here. The references included are from NERC, FERC and other reliable people and sources of information. I encourage the reader to check these references to decide for yourself.
Nuclear power generation is the only known technology to produce carbon dioxide free electric power. However, building a new nuclear power generation supply chain will take decades. David Archibald wrote an excellent article on “The Energy Future We Need to Have a Future Worth Having”, here. I also support nuclear for the long term, but the next 30 years are important to work through and hopefully, sustain our high quality of life until future technologies and the needed supply-chains are sufficiently developed for safe and reliable implementation. My previous blog post covered an overview of the needed new thinking (and policies) on nuclear power for carbon dioxide emissions reduction to succeed. here. (27)
This is my Perspective of Proven, Reliable, Affordable & Abundant Energy & Electricity Generation during my lifetime. Here are some of the significant technical advances, changes, regulations, incidents, events and policies that have shaped energy and power generation over the last eight decades. Some personal experiences are interjected during this era just to show where I am coming from in my perspective. Part 2 will cover my thoughts on the impossible transition to renewables.
A Brief History of the Improved Quality of Life Since WWII
Dr. Euan Mearns wrote in WUWT this short summary of the history of energy and the “Energy Transition as Social Vandalism”(19). An excerpt from the concise and well written essay:
“The mid 19th century also saw the development of early internal combustion engines, although at that time there was insufficient fuel for a motor industry. The Spindletop gusher and subsequent discoveries changed all that. The world was now awash with oil without any real market. Then in 1908, Henry Ford rolled out his Model T to begin the age of the car and mass transit. The Wright brothers’ first powered flight in 1908 led quickly to commercial air travel and eventually to the jet age.
Unparalleled development came with the 20th century and the introduction of nuclear power plants whose uranium fuel contains more than 16,000 times the energy content of coal, oil and natural gas. At the same time, hydroelectric power rapidly expanded and natural gas (the most energy dense of the fossil fuels by mass) became more available for electricity generation and home heating and cooking.
The introduction of gas-fired central heating enhanced the well-being of populations. Whole homes would be heated by hot-water radiators, and no longer would families have to huddle round a dirty coal fire. By 2000, life expectancy in world population had risen to 66 years, 78 years in the now developed countries.”
Looking back, I am awed by the progress that was made for the Betterment of the quality of life for Humankind. I am proud of my small contributions along the way.
Some of the Significant Energy & Electricity Mileposts: 1940-2023
Pulverized coal firing for steam generation becomes the predominant method of power generation
Mechanical dust collectors are used for collection of particulates
1941 B&W invents and develops Cyclone Burners to fire low fusion midwestern coal with more than 70% of the ash collected as a molten smelt
1943 Combustion-Engineering invents and develops Tilting Tangential Firing
Electrostatic precipitators are applied to large coal plants
1949 First G-E Gas Turbine for electric power generation in the U.S. installed at Oklahoma Gas & Electric Belle Isle Plant
1951 U.S. Navy Admiral Rickover obtains funding from Congress to build the first nuclear powered submarine, Nautilus
1953 President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” initiative
Supercritical pressure steam generators become common place
1955 USS Nautilus puts to sea
1955 First “Atoms for Peace Conference” in Geneva
Steam temperatures and power generation from Rankine cycle steam plant efficiency approaches 40% design efficiency
1957 Shippingport Nuclear Steam System, the first U.S. Commercial Reactor is proven
1957-59 Philo and Eddystone Ultrasupercritical Units are placed in service
1970 – President Nixon signs law to form EPA
Coal pulverizer state of the art advances to single pulverizers with over 100,000 pounds per hour capacity
1973 First Oil Embargo
1977 U.S. Department of Energy is formed with the intention to lead America to energy independence
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is begun
1978 EPA Clean Air Act
1978 President Jimmy Carter signs Energy Policy Act
1979 Three Mile Island Incident
1980 Energy Security Act
1988 G-E Single Cycle Aeroderivative Gas Turbine achieves 41.9% efficiency
1990 EPA-Clean Air Act Amendment
1991-First Horizontal Drilling by Enid Company in OK
Low NOx Burners or other NOx reduction systems are installed on most coal plants across the U.S.
Flue gas desulfurization becomes standard for coal plants
Selective Catalytic Reactors are used to reduce NOx
2010 Hydraulic Fracturing combined with Directional Drilling by Harold Hamm’s company greatly increases shale gas production in ND
2012 The Shale Gas Revolution produces natural gas at lower cost/million Btu than coal
2014 CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) units achieve over 60% efficiency
2020 Natural gas electricity generation provides over 38% of U.S. electricity production
2022 U.S. Congress passes IRA Law and Biden signs, it codifies green energy
Reasonable Cost Energy & Electricity Improves Quality of Life
This is a personal story of electricity generation. Here is my take on how “Living Better Electrically” came to be, during my lifetime. Here is a typical TV ad from circa 1962, the year I entered the workforce.
Electricity Generation 1962-2012 Living Better Electrically
This 50 year period was my personal career, most of which I spent working in the electric power generation business. Including equipment design, manufacturing, startup, testing, operations, maintenance, emissions reduction and upgrading of coal power production equipment. My specialty was large electric utility fuel burning and steam generating equipment. Upon graduation from Williamson in 1962 I was employed as an electrician then as a utility engineer at Mobil Oil Corporation. In 1966 I joined Babcock & Wilcox working in Barberton, Ohio as a Technical Assistant to the Project Engineer in the Nuclear and Special Projects Department. Projects that I worked on as part of the B&W team were the Duke Oconee Nuclear Steam Systems, numerous reactors, steam generators and pressurizers for Navy Nuclear Propulsion Systems and large heavy walled, high pressure, pressure vessels for the Petrochemical industry.
Duke, Oconee #1 Reactor Vessel at B&W Shop in Mt. Vernon, Indiana, from Duke Annual Report 1967
In the 1960’s electricity was very reasonable in cost and nuclear power was proclaimed by the AEC Head (Atomic Energy Commission) Lewis Strauss as soon to be “Too Cheap to Meter”. Commercial nuclear power generation had been proven at Shippingport and was growing exponentially in applications all across the country. The two most memorable engineering leaders that I remember visiting B&W’s Barberton facilities (while I worked there) were Admiral Rickover, the Father of the nuclear Navy and commercial nuclear power generation and Bill Lee, who at the time, was Duke Power Company’s VP of engineering. Mr. Lee was said to have favored the B&W Nuclear Steam System because it was slightly more efficient with the Once through Steam Generator providing a small amount of superheat that competing NSS (Nuclear Steam Systems) did not provide, to the steam supply to the turbine. Duke Power at the time, had commissioned some of the most efficient coal plants in the world and planned to extract the highest possible efficiency from their first nuclear powered steam supply system. This was logical to Mr. Lee and one reason he was attracted to the new B&W OTSG (Once Through Steam Generator) which was designed for a few degrees of superheated steam temperature. My previous blog post discussed the B&W, C-E and Westinghouse nuclear power manufacturing facilities here.
The Most Efficient and Largest Supercritical Coal Power Plants Built 1957-1975
The 1960’s were exciting times for coal fueled power plants too. Two Milestone supercritical power plants were built and started up during this time. The 5,000 psi Eddystone Steam Station (Philadelphia Electric) with a steam generator built by Combustion Engineering and the 4,700 psi Philo Plant (AEP) steam generator was built by Babcock & Wilcox.
Soon after these magnificent accomplishments was the 900 MW Combustion Engineering series of supercritical steam generators at Conemaugh & Keystone plants in western PA. Then the 1,300 MW supercritical steam generators built by B&W for AEP and TVA. Certainly impressive to me at the time with furnaces over 100 foot wide and operation at over 3,500 psi with superheated main steam at 1,000 degrees F. and also Reheated steam supply to 1,000 degrees F.
Duke Power designed, installed, operated and maintained the most efficient coal plants in the world with the additions of Marshall Units 3 & 4 on Lake Norman in 1969 and 1970.
Later, the Belews Creek coal plant was installed and between Marshall and Belews Creek competed for the highest efficiency coal plants in the U.S. Belews Creek Steam Station is a 2.24-GW, two-unit coal-fired generating facility located on Belews Lake in Stokes County, North Carolina. It is or was Duke Energy’s largest coal-burning power plant in the Carolinas and when it was operated on coal it ranked among the most efficient coal facilities in the United States. During 2006, it was the fifth most efficient coal power plant in the United States with a heat rate of 9,023 Btu/kWh (37.8% conversion efficiency). In 2008, it was the #1 most efficient coal power plant in the United States with a heat rate of 9,204 British thermal units per kilowatt-hour (2.697 kWh/kWh) or 37.1% conversion efficiency.
A Few of My Personal Experiences with Coal Plants in the 1970’s
My first foray into S.C. was as one of three startup engineers for the SCE&G Wateree coal plant in Eastover, SC. This is a coal fueled, two unit supercritical steam supply plant which uses two Riley Stoker supercritical steam generators. These are the only two supercritical steam generators built by Riley. They have been very successful and in fact, at this writing are still in service 53 years after the startup of Unit #1. After that in 1972 I was assigned as lead startup engineer at the 420 MW Sutton Unit #3 near Wilmington ,NC. This plant is shown below during steam line blowing in June 1972. Steam line blowing was one of my favorite activities in the startup of a new plant. The roar of the exiting steam at supersonic velocity was memorable and provided a sense of the enormous power of steam. Steam line blowing is a one time startup operation to remove grit and foreign debris from inside the superheater and reheater tubes and piping, so that when operation begins, solid particles of debris will not damage the steam turbine blades.
Following the startup of Sutton #3, in January 1973 I joined Carolina Power and Light Company as a senior engineer. My first assignment was as the lead startup engineer on Roxboro Unit #3. This is a 720 MW coal Unit with a unique design of two half capacity boilers and one common feedwater supply train with a blended single stream steam supply to one G-E 720 MW turbine rated at 2,400 psi 1,000 degree F. Superheat and 1,000 degree F. Reheated steam to the last 13 stages of the turbine. The Roxboro plant is shown below in a recent photo by Duke Energy. This plant was started up as CP&L and was later absorbed to be part of Duke Energy.
Reasonable Cost, Abundant, Reliable and Dispatchable Coal and Nuclear Provide the lowest Cost Electricity in the World
The Roxboro plant is still in operation and it is rated at 2462 MW generation capacity. Let me digress with a short anecdote. Back in the time frame of about 1975 I was involved in an ASME meeting in Niagara Falls, NY. As part of the group, we were given a tour of the Niagara Falls Hydro plant on the U.S. side of the river downstream of the falls. I was struck at the time with the realization that all of the water feeding several of the Great Lakes provides (on the U.S. side) about the same generation capacity as the Roxboro Thermal Plant did. A real world lesson in “Energy Density”. Roxboro’s four units are rated 2,462 MW, the Robert Moses Hydroelectric plant 2,300 MW. This comparison is one I find helpful when non-energy trained people ask why are coal plants necessary? It helps to explain the enormous energy density of a coal fueled power plant.
Niagara Falls, Robert Moses Hydroelectric Plant, about five miles downstream of Niagara Falls, From NY Power Authority website
Fuel Diversity Helps Keep Costs Down, All Fuels Are Important
I joined Riley Stoker in 1969 and worked at Tampa Electric on the final acceptance work of the Gannon Station Units 5 & 6. Then on to the SCE&G Waterree plant for the startup of Riley’s first and only supercritical steam generator. Wateree is still running today and it was very successful. After startup of Wateree #1, I was sent to the City of Lakeland, Florida to finish the startup of the 80 MW oil and gas fueled Power Plant #3 (now named McIntosh) The unique and difficult design of this unit was that it was a stand alone, single unit with no steam connections to another unit. It was fueled by heavy oil, #6 or also known as Bunker C. The oil required heating to about 220 degrees F. to reduce the viscosity for satisfactory atomization and complete burning in the furnace. Because there was no gas or steam connections, the startup entailed firing on Diesel fuel until the boiler had at least 1000 psi drum pressure. Then the stored energy of the boiler would be used to heat and circulate oil from the Heavy oil supply tank. It sounds simple enough, however when the new controls and safety interlocks were all in startup mode, unproven and with numerous glitches, steam pressure would be lost and the operation on diesel fuel would need to be repeated. Any field engineer with experience in oil firing Utility boilers knows the importance of steam or compressed air cleaning of the Ljungstrom regenerative air heaters to prevent fires. That is the reason I was sent to Lakeland. The previous startup engineer was not careful about airheater cleaning and both airheaters were destroyed by fires. I was sent to replace that unfortunate startup engineer.
Oil firing was common in the 1970’s because it was competitive with coal at $0.50/million Btu. After Lakeland I was sent to lead the startup of Jacksonville Electric Authority’s Northside #2. A 325 MW heavy oil fueled boiler. Then off to CP&L Sutton #3, a 420 MW fueled at startup with heavy oil and with provisions for future coal fuel. America’s power demand was rapidly growing, especially in the south where air conditioning and heat pumps were taking off in popularity. As I recall peak load growth was about 10% per year. To illustrate the rapid growth in electric demand, here is my recollection of the units added at CP&L over a five year period:
Robinson #2, 700 MW, 1970 (Nuclear)
Asheville Unit #2, 200 MW, 1971 (coal)
Sutton Unit #3, 420 MW , 1972 (coal/oil)
Roxboro Unit #3, 720MW, 1973 (coal)
Brunswick Unit #1, 836 MW, 1975 (nuclear)
During this time period (1970-1977) CP&L was a regional Utility separate from Duke Energy. The total installed capacity of CP&L back during this time was about 6,000 MW. Therefore, the rapid system load growth is illustrated by the addition of five generating units totaling 2,876 MW in generation capacity in just five years. It was a great time to be involved in the power industry… And then came the Oil Embargo and some difficult times for the industry.
City of Lakeland, Power Plant #3, Now there are three Units, including a 360 MW coal unit #3. Picture by Dick Storm about 1971
During 1973 the U.S. government supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab nations.
At the time of the first oil embargo, 1973-1974, the EPA had been creating needed air pollution rules to reduce emissions from coal fueled power plants. Amongst the first pollutants to be addressed, was particulates. Before the Oil Embargo coal cost and oil cost per million Btus was about the same, right at $0.50 per million Btu. Therefore to reduce emissions fast, Utilities had an economic choice of converting coal plants to oil fuel which has nearly zero ash content or install millions of dollars of backend equipment, including electrostatic precipitators. Carolina Power and Light Company took the path of installing electrostatic precipitators on the newest units (Asheville #2, Sutton #3 and Roxboro #3) and converting the older, smaller coal units to being fueled by oil. Many utilities to the north, including VEPCO, PEPCO, Philadelphia Electric and others, chose the fuel oil conversion route to reduce particulates with less capital cost than installing electrostatic precipitators. This could be done with much lower costs to the consumer because the coal and heavy oil costs were about the same on the fuel cost/million BTU. About $0.50/mmb. Fuel cost is the largest single component of electricity production cost. Comprising between 75 and 92% of the production cost. Thus, when fuel costs escalate, so does the electricity production cost increase.
The Oil Embargo made an immediate fuel supply shortage for all petroleum products and including residual #6 heavy fuel oil. This is when, in my recollections, that major “Wheeling of Power” across state lines became common. The Utilities in the states to the north of CP&L were; VEPCO, PEPCO, Delmarva and Philadelphia Electric. They could receive coal generated electricity from Duke Power, CP&L and other southern Utilities across state lines using existing Transmission interconnections by wheeling power. This was before RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) were created.
The 1973-1980 time frame was difficult for Utilities and some had to cut once reliable dividends to stockholders and some went Bankrupt (Consolidated Edison in NY had a particularly difficult time) due to the volatile fuel costs.
National Energy Act of 1978
The energy shock of the oil embargo prompted Congress and the President to act on energy policy. Also during this time the Alaska Pipeline was approved and built(15). Jimmy Carter signed the first Energy Act in 1978.
America’s electricity supply has remained reliable and of reasonable cost for all of my lifetime. Below is a chart of world electricity prices in 2009 which shows the comparison of U.S. electricity prices to other industrialized countries of the world.
Shown on the chart of electricity costs above is Denmark and the Netherlands which were two of the first countries to implement wind farms for significant portions of their power generation.
America up to about 2012 used coal fuel for over 50% of our electricity production. Reasonable cost, reliable, abundant and dispatchable coal, generation powered the largest economy in the world. Reasonable cost electricity and GDP tend to parallel each other as shown on the graph below.
Coal Plant Efficiency Rankings
Up until the war on coal, coal plant designers, operators and maintenance personnel took pride in striving for the best overall efficiency. The best yearly coal plant efficiencies were typically from well run supercritical steam pressure units. Duke Power, PEPCO and AEP typically held the top positions. Duke Power’s Marshall and Belews Creek had repeatedly good years. Here is a typical ranking from 2013, Power Engineering Magazine:
I personally remember many meetings with Utility engineering management where the topic of discussion was modifications to the boilers and fuel burning equipment so that fuel changes could be made to reduce the production costs of power and at the same time, reduce emissions. One fuel change that was popular in the 1990’s was to convert coal plants designed for eastern Bituminous coal to fire western Powder River Basin fuel. This reduced emissions of NOx and kept production cost of power reasonable.
The Shale Gas Revolution
The combination of Hydraulic fracturing and Directional Drilling created an enormously large boost in U.S. natural gas production beginning about 2012. Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub dropped from a high of over $12.00/million BTU to about $2.00/million BTU in 2012. This abundance of natural gas fuel at this price, was competitive with well run, efficient coal plants. Then, the E.P.A. ramped up restrictions on coal plant emissions but the consumer was insulated from electricity price hikes because many natural gas CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) plants were being built and fuel diversity allowed the Utilities to switch generation from coal plants to new, highly efficient CCGT generating units.
The vastly increased supply of natural gas drove the price of gas down to below the cost of coal on a unit heating value basis. Gas dropped to below $2.00 per million Btu. Also during this time period, gas turbine-combined cycle plant efficiencies increased to the range of 60%. Power generation efficiencies over the years is shown on the graph below. The combination of low cost natural gas and enormous efficiency advantage of CCGT plants greatly increased the use of natural gas fuel for power generation. Keep in mind, the advantage of natural gas fuel is only an advantage when there are pipelines to provide the fuel and there is an abundant natural gas supply. This does not work well in all states, such as Massachusetts and Hawaii.
The combinations of low fuel cost, low Capital cost, low environmental emissions controls cost and greatly increased efficiency together made natural gas fuel more economically attractive than coal for new generating plants. The fuel of choice became natural gas for Utilities that had pipelines and sources of natural gas fuel. Coal fuel accounted for 50% of electricity generation in 2004 but was reduced to 23% by the increased use of more economical natural gas by 2019.
Duke Energy, Buck Station CCGT Plant
America is Blessed with Enormous Energy and Mineral Resources
America has plenty of Coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear fuels to power our economy and our life styles. I have written other blog posts on the relationship of energy and economic prosperity. Specifically, our lifestyles and our industrial production requires on average, about 315 +/- 15 million Btus of energy each year per person This equates to about 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy per year for our country. This level of energy requirement has held steady for about twenty five years. More on the need for 100 Quads of energy/year are here,here, here and here (20, 21, 22, 23) . Up until the manufactured climate hoax and war on carbon, America enjoyed reasonable cost, reliable electricity and also gasoline, Diesel and Jet Fuel supplies. America became energy independent in 2020.
Energy Growth and Clean Air Too!
Protection of the environment is important to all of us, including me. In fact, much of my career was invested in improving efficiency and reducing emissions of coal generating plants. There has been steady progress in cleaning the air and water of the U.S. and I would be remiss if I did not show that during the preceding eight decades in spite of population growth, increases in the number of miles driven and the growth of the economy, the real pollutants have been drastically reduced from the levels of the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s. The chart below was prepared by the EPA.
Two of the Last Clean Coal Plants Built in America
Coal plants are robust, reliable and when properly maintained can run safely and reliably for over fifty years. Several of the plants that I have personal experience with were mentioned above. However, newer designs with greater efficiency and improved emission controls should be built to replace the aging plants. In 2008 there were plans for dozens of new, clean coal plants to be built. Two magnificent examples are the John Turk Plant and the (then called Cliffside) #6 Unit at Rogers Energy Center in S.C.
Duke’s Rogers Energy Center Unit #6 Startup 2013AEP-John Turk Plant, Arkansas
Example of Many New Coal & Nuclear Plants, Planned and Should Have Been Built 2012-2022
Santee-Cooper Pee Dee Plant, Planned to Be Built near Florence, SC
The Pee Dee Energy Center is one example of dozens of new, clean, efficient coal plants that were planned but cancelled due to political pressure of the environmental activists. I predict that these plants will be sorely missed during the winter peak power generation periods in December 2023 and January 2024. So will the Summer Nuclear Units #2 & 3 be missed.
Slide of Summer 2 & 3 and Vogtle Plant Construction from Dick Storm USCB-OLLI Course
Summary
My contribution to the progress made in the last 80 years was very modest and I will quickly admit that. However, because I worked with many talented and visionary engineers and in hundreds of generating plants around the world, I had a very good position to observe the progress of the giants in our industry. Engineers with a Vision of abundant, clean and reasonable cost electricity generation. To mention a few of these giants: Admiral Hyman Rickover, Bill Lee of Duke Power, Mendall Long of CP&L, Bill McCall of Santee-Cooper and many more fine engineers like them. What were their goals? To improve the quality of life, security, safety, economic growth, ensure that reasonable cost power could be produced for decades into the future, provide Bulk Power at the lowest possible cost to attract industry, increase industrial output, provide good paying jobs in their service territory, and design power plants that provide environmental protection for all of the citizens.
During the last 80 years nuclear power became a reality and today about 19% of our electricity is generated from clean, carbon free nuclear power plants. Many are now over fifty years old, but still reliable and inexpensive producers of vital electricity.
Natural gas generation has progressed from the first simple cycle unit built by G-E in 1949 at about 25% efficiency to today’s combined cycle gas turbine plants that at optimum load points can operate at over 60% thermal efficiency. They are amongst the most efficient machines ever built, of any kind.
Ultra-supercritical, clean coal plants such as Turk and Rogers #6 have been developed to provide reliable, reasonable cost, clean and importantly, Dispatchable power generation. There should have been built more like these Why? Because fuel diversity is important when one fuel becomes short in supply. For example, the 1973-74 Oil Embargo. Today most of the Dispatchable electricity generation is from natural gas which of course, flows through pipelines. Pipelines are reliable but, fuel storage is not practical. Coal plants, on the other hand, can store several months fuel supply on site.
Fuel Diversity is important for electricity generation reliability. I am proud to have worked during these years to do my best to make a small contribution to the great progress that was accomplished.
Part 2 will describe the self induced end of reliability, affordability and dispatch ability of electricity generation. As Dr. Euan Mearns recently wrotein “Watts Up With That”….The “Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”(19)
It is my best hope that America and our politicians will wake up and understand the importance of primary energy from conventional sources.
Yours very truly,
Dick Storm, October 4, 2023
References
You Tube video of a “Living Better Electrically” ad hosted by Ronald Reagan, who was with the G-E Theater on Sunday nights for 8 years 1953-1962: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Lz1C53RwI
America has the largest coal reserves in the world, about 22% of the world’s coal. America also has all the uranium needed to fuel our nuclear plants and enough oil and gas to provide the primary energy America needs for decades. So, why have we allowed a minority of people and leaders to smear and demonize the conventional fuels that we depend on every day? Worse yet, allow them to weaken our country.
Introduction
Are Blackouts and Gas Lines Inevitable? Is that what it will take for American Voters to Wake up and Elect Leaders to Reverse the Atrocious Policies of the Green New Deal? (aka “The ridiculously named, “Inflation Reduction Act”)
Last week I was having a conversation with a friend who is developing a proprietary process to reduce the CO2 emissions of coal and with a goal to make coal combustion as clean or cleaner burning, than natural gas. My friend Steven asked me, “If we reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 70%, reduce all other pollutants to near zero and basically make coal as clean or cleaner than natural gas, Do you think we could get public acceptance?” I thought about my answer and paused. As I recall, my answer went like this. “That will be hard to do, because there has been 50 years of indoctrination and demonization of first coal and now all fossil fuels, including gas. However, as people experience energy shortages, gas lines, food shortages, inflation and Blackouts, their perceptions should change”. Energy provides Life as we have come to know and enjoy it!
Energy shortages and energy poverty is the path our government has set us on, unless, somehow, we change the perceptions of the sources of energy that America has within our borders. Sustainable living, by my definition, is to sustain the 21st Century life-style that science and technology has made possible over the last 100 years. We enjoy very high quality of lives, including reasonable cost food production for us to share with less fortunate countries. Our quality of life and existence depends on energy. Think about how you missed energy during the last hurricane or winter storm when you might have been without adequate energy for a day or two. That does not happen very often in the U.S., but if current climate policies which demonize and restrict conventional forms or energy are continued, then energy shortages could become the new normal.
Perceptions Matter
On the topic of clean coal combustion I remembered a presentation to the American Coal Council membership that I presented in 2008. The title of the presentation is “Enhancing the Perceptions of Coal”. The purpose of the presentation was to stimulate interest amongst the members of the American Coal Council to encourage ACC members to become more engaged in public energy education. This has been a concern and passion for me since the 1990’s when the “War on Coal” was accelerated by the EPA of the Clinton Administration. Back then, we thought “New Source Review” was as bad as it would get for coal power. (EPA-NSR info here. Check this list of 31 Utilities that were wrongly forced to pay enormous cash settlements and/or shut down coal plants).
How Did We Get Into This Mess?
I was mistaken on the power of government to proceed with such un-American policies and I along with many others underestimated the harm to public perceptions that Obama, the Environmental Extremist/Activists, Liberal Democrats, NGO’s, the World Economic Forum, the Main Stream Media and “Woke corporations could cause. My blog post on my view of the history of the U.S. War on Coal is here and David Blackmon’s sub stack post “Carbon Fascism, Where it Came From”here. The “Shale Gas Revolution” came to fruition after 2008 and abundant gas supplies provided reasonable cost electricity generation from quickly built gas turbine combined cycle power plants. Here is a chart of natural gas prices over a five year period 2006-2011 leading up to the Shale Gas Revolution in electric power generation.
From 2012 Presentation by Storm Technologies to a Florida Utility with the purpose of explaining why Excellence in Operations & Maintenance of Coal Plants is Important Remain Competitive. Data from EIA
The cheap Shale Gas ( I hate the word Cheap, but feel this is an appropriate place to use it) created a domestically available, abundant Primary energy fuel that electric Utilities could and did burn instead of coal and at no increase in production cost to be passed on to the consumer. When gas prices dropped below about $2.25/million Btu.
The production cost component of electricity from the primary energy source, natural gas is about 90% fuel cost. Also, gas turbine combined cycle plants could be permitted easily and rapidly built for much less cost than a clean coal plant. About $1,000/kWh capacity vs. about $3,000/kWh capacity for coal. Of course, permitting a coal plant was and remains nearly impossible with strangling Federal Regulations. Therefore, as gas prices tumbled due to an enormous supply increase, gas became less cost than coal as a power generation fuel. Many GTCC plants were built during this time.
Therefore, the Shale Gas Revolution provided cover for the Green Policies that became very extreme during the “Reign”of Gina McCarthy, The EPA Administrator, During the Obama Regime
Here is a graphic from one of my OLLI courses on power generation by fuels, 2004 and 2019.
Five points of my ACC 2008 presentation: This presentation summarized the timeline of Perceptions of energy 1950-2008 and suggested actions to change the perceptions of the public on coal.
Have We Passed the Tipping Point? Are We Doomed to Energy Poverty and Unreliable Electric Power Generation, Blackouts & Brownouts? Can Politicians Fix the Flawed Policies? Will They?
I read the Hill article criticizing Donald Trump’s speeches where Trump stated that if elected, “I will end green new deal atrocities the first day”. At first I was encouraged at the headline but then reading the article it went on to explain that the “Green New Deal” is codified as public law, enacted by Congress and signed into law by President Biden as the so called, “Inflation Reduction Act”. Therefore, according to the Hill and my rudimentary understanding of how laws are created or changed, it will take both Congress and the President to shut down what President Trump refers to as “Green New Deal Atrocities”. I agree with Trump, but getting Congress to take action seems like a tall order.
The Consequences of Continuing the Net-Zero Carbon Path
Frequent disruptive energy shortage events such as Blackouts, gas lines, loss of industrial productive capacity, deindustrialization,
food shortages and massive job losses. These are All possible with a shortage of energy.
When these occur, Congress may wake up? It should not take energy shortage emergencies to engage Congress. This time, energy shortages are likely to be worse than the 1973 and 1978 Oil Embargoes. In my lifetime I remember the 1973 Oil Embargo and Congress providing a clear path for the Alyeska pipeline to be built in record time of two years 1975-1977.
A coming energy crisis worse than 1973 is likely and it is not just me saying that. Fatih Birol head of the IEA, Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Associates and others have stated this warning.
If we do have energy shortages worse than the mid 1970’s, then Congress may reign in the EPA and other government Bureaucrats? But with Biden as President, it will be hard. I have written other posts on the importance of energy here and here. America has been moving forward on energy policy like a Train Wreck in slow motion. Michele Bloodworth of America’s Power wrote in her Commentary“Are We Headed for A Reliability Train Wreck” in POWER Magazine.
Happening In Plain Sight!
Watching this is frustrating, painful and wrong. America is the strongest nation in the world with millions of smart technically trained engineers, it is not necessary for our great country to experience energy shortages. Yet, that seems to be the path that the government has chose.
The high quality of living that we have been accustomed to requires a lot of primary energy. About 300-330 million Btu’s per capita/year. Previous posts hereand here cover my thoughts on the energy we use and depend on. All totaled this is about 100 Quadrillion Btus/annum for the entire population of the U.S.A. This has been steady for about the last 25 years. Note the chart below from the EIA:
The fuels that provide this needed energy are about 93% conventional fuels, natural gas, nuclear, gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel, Nuclear and Coal. These fuels and their importance is described in my posts here and here.
Self-Sabotaging America’s Energy Infrastructure, Specifics
Some of the specific actions by the government as part of the misguided War on Carbon:
In 2008 I was worried about the “Perceptions of the Public on Coal. The harm done by indoctrinating the public and literally demonizing carbon has now put America on a path of energy poverty as we had in 1973 and 1978 with the oil embargoes.
Electric Vehicle Mandate (BTW This started in 2012 with the Obama Administration and the impossible to achieve Fleet Mileage mandate of autos required to achieve 54.5 mpg by 2030)
EPA Rules to Shut Down Coal Plants
Formation and expansion of RTO’s which have destroyed accountability for generation reserves from Regional Utilities. Such as PJM, ERCOT & MISO
BLM Rules to Restrict Mining
Biden Order to Shut down Keystone Pipeline
U.S. Refining Capacity is Reduced 5%, yet demand has been increasing
Federal ESG guidelines to restrict investments in fossil fuels
EPA Rule is proposed (in spite of SCOTUS past ruling) to Require CO2 Capture of Gas Power Generation Plants by 2040
Biden rescinded Trump era reductions in Federal Regulations on American energy production
Biden Executive Order to Reduce Fossil Fuel Production on Federal lands and increase Green energy to tackle the Climate Cris. Full EO here.
EPA aggressive enforcement of “New Source Review” (NSR) to penalize coal plants
Sweetheart deals between NSR settlements and EPA Lawsuits brought against coal plant operators, to fund NGOs that continue to influence further Self-Sabotaging Regulations. Example of one of last clean coal plants built in U.S. here.
Many more…..
The American Energy Alliance published a list of 100 ways the Democrats and Biden have made producing energy in America more difficult. The is as of May 2022 and the war on carbon continues. The AEA list is here.
So, what are we going to do about it?
To be perfectly honest with you, I am frustrated that our government is controlled by elected, appointed and career Bureaucrats, many who believe believe in the misguided green energy myth. To put the number in perspective, there are about 19.23 million state and Federal government employees, according to Statista.
Back to my ACC presentation in 2008. One slide I used is copied below. This quote, was used by President Kennedy in one of his famous speeches and he attributed it to Edmund Burke:
Yes, it is a small minority of leaders that have waged a very effective war on carbon. It is not only a matter of demonizing carbon, their goal is to control our lives and to de-industrialize, de-populate and downsize the energy use to lead to a smaller population on the planet. Donn Dears, Dr. Tim Ball, myself and many others have written about the U.N. Agenda 21 and the U.N.-IPCC. My blog with references for further reading is here. The small number of “leaders” have influenced electric utilities, the Entertainment Industry, the MSM and many “Woke” businesses and corporations to promote Green Propaganda. Again referring to David Blackmon’s excellent piece, “Carbon Fascisim, Where it Came From” here, Blackmon enumerates the small number of people who have initiated the ludicrous (some would say, evil) policies on the Free World. The frightening aspect of Federal rules and laws is that only 435 members of Congress plus nine Supreme Court Justices can codify anti-American energy policies that will be very hard to reverse. Congress, in my view, has been negligent in delegating full authority for the protection of public health to the EPA. It started out well in 1970. However, since then the EPA employs, about 15,000 and like other government agencies, have been weaponized against the best interests of America by Biden and Democrats in Congress. The war on conventional energy began with Clinton, continued with Obama and now has reached criticality with the Biden Administration.
It is this reality that concerns me to ask the question, “Are we doomed to face Energy Poverty?” What about the 3 Billion souls in Developing countries that use less electricity a year than we use to power our refrigerators for a year and cook over open fires fueled by cow dung or firewood? Then there is the concern of fertilizer production which is crucial for food production. Dr. Samuele Furfari has written an excellent article in European Science here. Another Blog on Substack, “Carbon Myopia” by Robert Bryce is here and Liberty Energy’s report on “Bettering Human Lives” is here.
Dr. Furfari’s article is entitled “Agriculture: Who Wants to Replace 22 Billion Human Equivalents?” The basic message from Dr. Furfari is, “energy has replaced muscle power over the last 120 years and the simple math to arrive at the muscle power of 22 Billion people is: A steam horse is worth 736 watts and an average man is worth 100 watts, so we have 30 million tractors x 100 horsepower x 7.36 = 22 billion“
Slide from Dick Storm presentation to Rotary Club on “Demystifying the Importance of Energy”
Furfari’s article is worth reading for some excellent background on the importance of energy to produce food for the world. More articles and books by Dr. Furfari are included in the references below.
What are the Western World leaders thinking?
They Certainly do not understand the basics pf energy and electricity generation. Check these Blogs of Robert Bryce (Carbon Myopia) here and David Blackmon’s (Carbon Fascism) here. Also, as noted above, the books and articles by Samuel Furfari, Donn Dears and Vaclav Smil are all very well researched and well written.
So Why Am I Worried?
Even my conservative red state of S.C. is headed for a path of electricity shortages. I wrote about this on my blog here. The Federal laws that have been enacted by Congress and approved by President Biden plus extreme anti-carbon based rules by EPA Regulations, in my view, these are simply un-American. Why? To be polite, I chalk it up to our leaders being ignorant in the fundamentals of physics and energy. A darker reason is if a number of the elected officials and NGOs that influence the EPA and government officials may have been influenced by NGO’s and including foreign Dark money. The next post on this blog will be an Appendix to include references for further reading to support my assertions.
In Our Republic, The Citizens Get The Leaders They Deserve! (Really, Do we?)
About 25 years ago when Bill Clinton was President, I remember working at a Canadian Utility. I made the mistake of commenting on my views of the EPA anti-coal policies of Carol Brower, who was then the head of the EPA in the Clinton Administration. My Canadian friends remarked, “In a Democracy you get the leaders you deserve”. I was humbled, embarrassed and thought, that was dumb of me to complain of U.S. politics amongst Canadians. My mistake and I attribute the gaff to just feeling at home with friendly folks that just happened to be Canadian citizens, only a two hour flight away. The point is, the remark, “In a Democracy We Get What We Deserve” has stuck with me. In our Republic, “Do We Get the Leaders We Deserve?” Let’s take a look at some reasons to be concerned. All of my energy engineer friends know how foolish and wrong the “Green New Deal” is. One friend, Donn Dears, told me privately, “This is a battle America must win!” Dears has written about a dozen books and is an acknowledged expert on energy and energy policies. Other energy and environmental science experts have also written extensively. Amongst them are Dr.’s Vaclav Smil, Judith Curry, Richard Lindzen, Steve Koonin, the NASA Right Stuff Team, CO2 Coalition, Heartland Institute, CFACT, American Energy Alliance and dozens of others that have written on energy and climate policy. My previous blogs have outlined the flawed science and reasons for destroying the energy infrastructure that powers America. However, the elected officials of the political party that favors these un-American, anti-conventional fuels policies are in power now and may in fact, win again in 2024. Some of the major influencers are mentioned in my post here. Why am I concerned? Because the carbon haters have done a very effective indoctrination (Scare Mongering) of millions of voters. Please read on…
Elections Matter and Here are Some Reasons of Why I am Concerned
Energy illiteracy in America is widespread. The indoctrination and demonization of carbon and nuclear energy has created a perception that many reasonably well educated people favor the “Myth of Green Energy”. I say this based on the successful indoctrination/Demonization of carbon by the U.N. , the World Economic Forum, The Sierra Club, The Natural Resources Defense Council, many other Environmental NGOs. Here is a figure I created for a presentation to the ENERUM, energy forum in Columbus and a couple other public meetings. A short review of “Demystifying Energy” is here.
Planned parenthood which is over 40% funded by Taxpayer dollars, the MSM, Entertainment and the entire Democrat Party which is strongly supported by all of the above. From what I have read about the 2020 voting patterns of suburban women, many voted on the single issue of abortion, based on the recommendations of “Planned Parenthood”. In my previous post, I showed publications that connected Planned Parenthood with the Sierra Club and other “Green Energy” supporting organizations. If you are curious, check the previous post here. Ken Braun of the Capital Research Center provides documentation of the sources of funding for the war on fuels. Names of Foundations from such well known wealthy donors such as Bloomberg, Bezos, MacArthur Foundation, Ford Foundation and others. One Sierra Club and Planned Parenthood alliance letter is here.
The anti conventional energy activists are funded with Billions and Billions of dollars. Check the links to the Capital Research Center’s Ken Braun article here. Then there is this report of the great American name “Ford” Foundation and how they have cooperated with the CCP, here.Henry Ford would not approve as this is against everything he stood for. So much for Donor Intent.
My point is, public indoctrination on green energy is widespread and well funded. The mis-perceptions are fueled by a distorted & fake science that carbon and nuclear are harmful. The gullible public with a general energy ignorance has accepted the 50 year indoctrination.
Next time you are in a social setting, just gently ask the average, educated persons you are with, how many Btus are there in a kWh? (3412.6), or how many Btus are there in a gallon of gasoline (about 125,000). Harder yet, how many foot pounds of energy at 100% efficiency is one BTU equivalent to? (778). More simply, “What is the difference between Primary and Secondary Energy? See what I mean. Now take a look at the U.S. Demographics to elect new leaders.
The 2020 election outcome by counties. The figure below was/is reported in the U.S.A. Today after the 2020 election. Here
The majority of the people in most of American counties favored the policies of Donald Trump. Thus the vast amount of red counties that are shown on the map above. However, land and counties do not vote, people do. Therefore the people of the cities with the minority of land area has the majority of voters. Many of these voters are strongly indoctrinated with propaganda from NGOs, Planned Parenthood amongst them and have been traditionally Democrat strongholds. Over 50% of Americans live in cities and although cities use enormous amounts of energy, the (D) voters not being energy savvy, tend to vote for Democrat candidates, regardless of the foolish and un-American policies they stand for. This is one reason I wrote on the importance of Energy Education here.
If the popular vote determined the outcome of a national election, it would be controlled by just three or four large Metropolitan areas such as NYC, LA, Chicago and Atlanta. Ironically, on an energy use basis, these cities use much more electricity than Rural areas. But the voters in these large Metropolitan areas have typically chosen Democrat candidates that are against conventional energy and they are for the most part, trained in Political Science, no in energy and electricity generation. Most do not know the difference between Primary and Secondary energy, yet they will proclaim as Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has implied…., “Electrify Everything”. Here is the unauthorized Biography of Jennifer Granholm’s by Ken Braun. Granholm, trained as a lawyer is typical of the creators of American energy policy.
My Conclusion: We have a lot of work to do to Educate the Public on the True Facts of Energy and Electricity Generation
I urge my friends and associates to get involved in educating your neighbors, friends and every person you can on the true facts. I know it is hard for anyone employed full-time to do extra curricular presentations to civic clubs, schools, Colleges and any gatherings of more than 25 people who will listen. But if not those of us that understand energy and electricity generation, then who will do it?
We must change the “Perceptions of Conventional Energy”, not only coal. Also, oil, gas and nuclear.
Respectfully and very truly yours,
Dick Storm, July 30, 2023
Green Energy Crisis, Part 4 – Appendix Will be uploaded as a separate post at a later date. This will include extensive Reference Links, Books and Information for those who are interested in further Research
Here is the actual Bulk Power Generation by fuel for Christmas week 2022. Note that at the peak on Christmas eve, 80% of the total electricity generation was from conventional generation using natural gas, coal and nuclear fueled generation. Sixty five percent was from natural gas and coal, this does not fit well for Net-Zero Carbon and abolishing fossil fuels. This is reality. The Clean Energy Crisis is a manufactured crisis that should not have gone this far. Donn Dears has much to offer in his new book
Donn Dears is a genuine energy expert having a long career working on design, manufacturing, maintenance and use of major equipment used in energy production. Donn has studied, worked and witnessed for himself energy production from all areas of the world including Asia and the Mideast. He understands the importance of energy to sustain a high quality of life and he understands the importance of protection of the environment. Like many of us, Donn cares about the planet and the well-being of his children and grandchildren. Clean Energy Crisis distills Donn’s career experiences plus considerable additional research to provide the reader with energy savvy. Facts that, if used can formulate a rational energy policy for the future. Every elected official must read this book and keep it for reference! Here is an outline of the contents.
Part 1 Energy Fundamentals
Chapter 1
Fossil Fuels (Overview of oil, NG, & coal. US has largest reserves in the world.)
Chapter 2
The grid ( Grid is mismanaged. Reliability is in danger. Baseload power essential.)
Chapter 3
Importance of coal (HELE plants essential for poor countries.)
Chapter 4
The promise of nuclear power ( SMRs hold promise for revival. Cost and fear stand in their way.)
Chapter 5
Demand for Materials (Mining and shortages, environmental issues & China.)
Chapter 6
Comparing BEVs and ICEs (Electricity demand, cost and safety issues.)
Chapter 7
Environmental Blackhole (NEPA’s need for reform to prevent interminable legal challenges.)
Part 2 Impossible Dreams
Chapter 8
Impossibility of Net-zero Carbon (Wind, PV solar, & nuclear: impossible to build enough capacity to meet demand.)
Chapter 9
Creating Fear to Sell Climate Change (Show that fear of sea-level rise, hurricanes, etc., is unfounded.)
Conclusion
Appendix A How the grid works
Appendix B Dangerous ESG Mandates
Appendix C Battery-Powered Bucket Trucks
Appendix D Climate Science (Happer, Wijngaarden paper)
Currently over 87% of the U.S. Primary Energy is provided by natural gas, nuclear, coal and old hydroelectric plants. It is engineering fiction to believe that wind and solar can replace these forms of affordable, reliable, dispatchable and high energy density fuels. Clean Energy Crisis explains the roots of the myths of green energy and provides a realistic path forward for U.S. Energy Policy……
America and the World are in an Energy Crisis, and all of the energy savvy professionals who work now or have worked in energy production, know that we have an energy crisis and that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels. The “War on Coal and War on Carbon” continues by an out of control EPA which has about 18,742 Bureaucrats fighting the best interests of the American people. Myself, Capital Research and others have written numerous reports and posts on the “War on Carbon” and the incestuos nature of EPA employees with Leftist Extremist organizations which is the root cause of America’s lack of a Rational Energy Policy.
There are 435 Congressional Representatives and 100 Senators plus the President and VP this totals only 537 elected officials that can (and is controlling) control U.S. Energy Policy. As mentioned above, the protection of the environment is controlled by over 18,742 unelected Bureaucrats in the EPA and over 15,826 Bureaucrats in the Department of Energy. Check the Biden Administration Cabinet Members Bio’s here. Few if any ever worked in the energy production. All are political appointees and do not require expertise in energy to be the head of the Department of Energy such as, Jennifer Granholm.
So…..What can we do? About the only path we can take is to use the mechanisms included in our Constitutional Republic and write to all 435 Congressman and 100 Senators to try to educate them on what needs to be done to use America’s Treasure of Energy.
Dick Storm Suggestion of Emergency Actions:
Roll back all Federal Regulations by the EPA that have been implemented after December 2020. America had clean air and clean water in 2020 and any Regulations implemented since then have been Ideological, “War on Carbon or Politically inspired. The Executive Branch Regulations that have been forced on the American people since january 2021 have not been in the Best Interests of America, especially regarding electric power generation and the 80% energy from fossil fuels that America depends on.
Write Government Officials
Here below, is the letter I sent to both Senators Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham of SC:
Dear Senator Scott,
I am writing you today because I would like to provide my insight into the importance of reliable, affordable energy and Dispatchable electricity to keep America strong.
The EPA is simply out of control and ruining America right before our eyes. Leftists that hate America are in charge of the EPA and the Biden Administration is chock full of Leftists that are working in earnest to weaken America. My suggestion is: Roll back all EPA Regulations to those in effect in December 2020. Our air and water was clean then, all Regulations added or modified since then are part of the War on Carbon and the War on the American people.
I have written my views and included extensive references on harmful Energy and Environmental policies on my Blog. The link is here: America’s Treasure of Coal: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-Bn
One of the most concise presentations I have presented was to the Sunset Rotary Club on HHI. The presentation is on my Blog if you have time to review it.
If you would like to discuss in more detail, I am interested in discussing with you or meeting in person. I truly understand the time pressures you have and would respect any of your time which you may provide.
Thank you for your service to save America. May God Bless you and your Family!
Respectfully submitted,
Richard F. Storm
Two Letters to Congresswoman Nancy Mace (SC District #1)
July 15, 2022
Dear Congresswoman Mace,
I am writing you today because I do not feel that you and your Republican colleagues are pushing back on President Biden’s un-American policies. Specifically on energy and environmental issues. I saw on LinkedIn yesterday that 14 Texas Congressman met to sign a letter pushing back on unnecessary rules on the EPA attack on the Texas Permian Basin oil and gas production. You and all members of Congress, both (D) and (R) should be creating more resistance to the foolish energy and environmental policies that the Biden Administration are implementing.
I am interested in meeting with you to discuss, if you ever have time when you are near Hilton Head.
Respectfully submitted,
Richard F. Storm
Congresswoman Mace did visit my town for an open meeting. I was given an opportunity to ask her about pushing back on Biden’s Green Energy policies. Ms. Mace told me, “When we get into the majority I can do something” So, after the November election, I wrote her again:
November 19, 2022
Dear Congresswoman Mace,
Congratulations on your reelection! I am very pleased that you have kept this important District a Red one!
I met you when you visited Hilton Head last summer and asked you about the insanely anti-American Energy Policies that the EPA and the Biden Administration are forcing on our country. You answered, “I can do something when we get a majority”. Thankfully, you are now with the majority.
I am writing you today because I would like to meet with you to provide my insight into the importance of energy and electricity to keep America strong.
I have written my views and included some extensive references on harmful Energy and Environmental policies. One of the most concise presentations I have presented was to the Sunset Rotary Club on HHI. The presentation is on my Blog if you have time to review it.
If you would like to discuss in more detail, I am interested in meeting with you. I truly understand the time pressures you have and would respect your time you may provide.
Respectfully submitted,
Richard F. Storm
Letter to Governor Henry McMaster, regarding the Regional Utility, Santee-Cooper
I wrote to Governor McMaster in the summer and sent him a large package of my concerns for the shutting down of the Santee-Cooper Winyah Coal Power Plant before Dispatchable, replacement Bulk Power generation can be built. The Nov. 19 letter was after the election.
Nov. 19, 2022
Dear Governor McMaster,
Congratulations on your reelection!
I am a retired engineer living in HHI. I worked for over 50 years in the electric power industry and have a good working knowledge of electric power generation. I have followed and participated in the Santee-Cooper IRP Stakeholder presentations. I have submitted my recommendations to Santee-Cooper on their portal but feel the Legislature has them on a flawed and mythical “Green Path” I have worked with/for (as a contractor/consultant) Santee-Cooper and SCE&G since 1970. I know SC Power plants well and have worked at most of them over the last 50 years. My recommendation is to keep the Winyah and Cross Coal Plants in top condition and on coal fuel for at least the next ten years. These units will be needed for load growth and for Dispatchable, affordable electricity generation to supply the Demand of industries such as Century Aluminum and NUCOR Steel, as well as providing reliable power to their service territory. Non-Dispatchable solar and wind cannot satisfy the load growth of the coastal SC service territory of Santee-Cooper.
Also, speaking of service territory, Santee-Cooper should keep their independence from neighboring Utilities and plan to install needed new generation capacity to provide 15% reserves based on being an “Energy Island” to separate from neighboring utilities should there be an energy crisis of insufficient capacity to meet demand.
I would be pleased to discuss my concerns with you by phone or in person. I mailed some information to you in June. However, that was just before the election and I understand it being a reduced priority at that time. Recently I presented my views on SC Energy and Electricity to the Sunset Rotary Club on HHI. The link for the presentation is here: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/11/17/demystifying-the-importance-of-energy-and-electric-power/
Thank you for taking time to read my letter and thank you for your service to the great state of South Carolina. I sincerely appreciate all that you have done to keep South Carolina strong and free.
Yours very truly,
Dick Storm
For Reference, Here is the April 2022 letter I sent to the Governor
April 30, 2021
Governor Henry McMaster
PO Box 2459
Mt. Pleasant, SC 29465
Dear Governor McMaster,
I am a proud American that is pleased to be a resident of the Great State of South Carolina. Thank you for your leadership and businesslike governing of this state.
Just a short note to let you know, I am an experienced power engineer (Registered PE in state of NC) and have over 50 years experience in power generation. Over the years, I have worked on coal plants at Wateree, Cope, Williams, Jefferies, Cross, Winyah and more. I have also been a supporter of nuclear power and am aware that over 50% of SC’s electricity is generated by the seven old nuclear units (four plants). (Oconee, Robinson, Summer, Catawba). I actually worked on Oconee when employed by Babcock & Wilcox in the 1960’s.
I am not sure what the status is with Santee-Cooper but thought I would write to tell you, I strongly believe that keeping the State Electricity Generation Authority of Santee-Cooper is the right thing to do for the residents of SC. In my view the large Utilities such as Duke, Dominion and Southern are simply politically correctness driven and prone to making decisions based on keeping their safe 4% dividend. Yes, I am retired and yes, I too have Duke and Dominion stocks in my investment/retirement portfolio. But, I think keeping SCPSA strong is important for our state.
Having said that, I also wish to state that the advertising, indoctrination and hype of Renewable Power is not good for our state. Solar and wind are only reliable during times of sunshine and favorable winds and should always (until storage technology catches up) be less than 25% of the total generation and NEVER included in generation reserve margins. Margins are the extra generation expected during electricity Demand Peaks. In my view, that is the problem Texas had in February with over 25% of their generation capacity provided by unreliable, intermittent wind and solar. Same for California last August 2020 when the sun went down and there was insufficient Fossil fuel backup available.
I did prepare and teach a course at USCB-OLLI and although retired, I have kept up with energy and electricity generation trends. The trends are troubling, thus the reason for this letter.
My motto is, “All Fuels are Important” and for SC, I believe the coal plants should be properly maintained and cared for, kept going well beyond 2030, especially Cross Plant.
The current nuclear plant licensing expire beginning in 2030 and 2033 for Oconee and Robinson. I believe a balanced portfolio of new nuclear and coal plants are needed to keep industry powered with reasonable cost electricity. NUCOR and Century Aluminum are two large SC Industries that depend on reasonable cost power. I think steps now to keep a balanced portfolio and not “New Green Deal” renewables, is important.
Thank you for taking time to read this and let me provide my best wishes for success in your re-election. A small check is enclosed to show my support.
My letters did not have any affect. The only politician that acknowledged he read the letters sent was Senator Tim Scott.
If we are to get Politicians attention, then it will take many of us writing letters, calling, visiting and discussing the true facts.
We who understand Energy and Electricity Generation are a minority. I think it is safe to assume that for every letter an elected official gets such as I have written, there are multiple letters from either Green Leaning citizens (that do not understand Dispatchable Generation) and Business interests that are interested in Green tax incentives.
If we the “Energy Savvy Members of Society” do not speak up and get the attention of government, then the Energy Crisis will get worse, likely resulting in economic decline and even more deaths, as happened during the Feb 2021 winter storm in Texas and of course, as is occurring in Europe now.
Professor Vaclav Smil quote: (Smil is a prolific author on energy issues and lives in Canada)I absolutely hate the word sustainability because there is no such thing. Sustainability cannot be defined. Sustainable for what? Over next year? Over 10 years? Over a millennium? On a local basis, on a planetary basis? I mean, there are so many time and space dimensions to it you cannot define what is sustainable. If somebody is boasting what they are doing is sustainable, it’s a total laugh. There is no sustainable thing.
I presented my views on the importance of coal to the ASME Annual Meeting in Dallas at the Plenary Session in the summer of 2011. Back then, over 50% of America’s electricity was generated by coal power and hundreds of new coal plants were in the planning stages to modernize the coal fleet. Electricity costs in the U.S. were amongst the lowest in the world. The map with electricity costs is from 2010 data and from Dick Storm presentation to the ASME Annual Meeting.
During last Thanksgiving week I was thinking of the many Blessings I have had over my life-time and it occurred to me that not only me but all other Americans are Blessed with an enormous treasure of energy (and many minerals we need too) right within our borders. It has been said before, “America is the Saudi Arabia of Coal”. What follows are some slide excerpts from my 2011 talk to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) where my main point was, “Coal is Important”. It was then and remains important in 2022.
Back in 2008-2011 there were hundreds of new coal plants in the planning or construction stages.Many of these were cancelled. At the end of this post, in the Conclusions, I have added a dozen or so references of some of the organizations and individuals that contributed to the stopping new construction or the shutting down of over 200 coal plants. Because the ASME meeting in 2011 was at the beginning of “Wokeness” by the ASME, not all organizers were pleased with what I had to say. However, thanks to a friend who was an ASME official at the time, I was given my full allotted time in the Plenary Session for my presentation. My compliments and appreciation to my career-long friend Sam Korellis, now retired from EPRI. Time flies, that was 11 years ago and since then over 102,000 MW’s of coal generation capacity has been shut down without being replaced in kind. This is a mistake that much of America will realize in a couple months when the 2023 winter begins. Here are my views, as presented 11 years ago on the importance of coal and I believe, still are applicable today.
Economic prosperity and coal consumption grew as America prospered 1970-2010. This in spite of the 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo.
I have used the U.S. Department of Energy Sankey Diagram of “Total Primary Energy” for many years and have discussed the fact that America typically requires 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy each year to power our high quality of life. Here below is the Sankey Diagram showing the Total Primary Energy used in 2008. Note it is 102.75 Quadrillion Btus. What has changed as the years (and War on Coal) have gone by, is the source of the fuels. In 2008 coal was 19.76 Quadrillion Btus. In 2021 coal was about half that at 10.5 Quadrillion Btus as natural gas fuel was more widely used for power generation 2008 to 2021. However, the total primary energy for normal economic activity remains right at 100 Quadrillion Btus. In 2019 before Covid, it was 101 Quads.
Four Facts that I opened my talk with: In 2011 about 82% of the world’s energy was fossil fuels. Today, fossil fuels continue to provide about the same percentage but actually, a greater quantity than in 2011 because more energy is used today than in 2011. My last of the four points is the most important. That is, Much damage to the American people and all of the people of the world has been inflicted by Green policies that are based on political wealth distribution purposes plus the myth that solar and wind can replace fossil fuels.
Summary of Where the U.S. Has Progressed in Energy Policy Since 2011
As if to highlight the irrational Energy Policy today, my friend Thomas sent me a news clip on the Pirky Plant in Texas being forced to shut down(1) just this week. His appropriate description of the news item is: “Losing the War against Stupidity”. So it seems.
These coal and nuclear plant shut downs have been driven by environmental zealots funded by non energy savvy Billionaires. To be fair, they may have good intentions on contributing to a cleaner and better world. However, Net-Zero Carbon by 2035 or even 2050 will not be possible without sacrificing our quality of life. The folks that contribute to the environmental extremists and the organizations have indoctrinated many of the people of the world by demonizing the very fuels that have lifted billions from poverty. Amongst them are the Sierra Club, National Resources Defense Council, Environmental Defense Council and many more. Many of the executives from the environmental extremist groups have served both the EPA and government agencies. This is well documented by a 2015 report by Congress . Numerous references below document the revolving door of extremists being placed in high government positions. Background and expertise in electric power production or any proficiency in energy production or engineering is not a requiremment for these individuals that are now in powerful government positions. The lack of an energy policy is partially explained by the lack of proficiency or understanding by people in high office. The organizations that set U.S. Energy (Non) Policy are depicted in the illustration below which I have used in recent presentations.
So, What Went Wrong?
The root cause of our foolish and anti-American energy policy in my opinion, is due to many years of mis-education and indoctrination of the public on the Myth that Solar and Wind can replace coal, natural gas and nuclear generation. Also, replace Fossil Fuels for transportation, plastics, Fertilizer, concrete and steel production. The indoctrination of the public on the myth that wind and solar can provide all of America’s energy has been well orchestrated, but it is wrong for America and wrong for the Free World.
Energy Policy in the U.S. is determined by Environmental Extremists and Politicians that do not have training or proficiency in engineering and energy production.
There is No U.S. Policy for an Orderly Transition to Carbon-Free Energy
Energy Independence should be a central component of any U.S. Energy Policy.
.An Energy Crisis including Blackouts is Likely in Winter 2023. Energy Policy is Set by Politicians, Un-Elected Bureaucrats and Lobbyists, Driven by Green $ Incentives to Utilities and Independent Power Generation Developers
Hydrogen as Stored Energy, Has Technical Merit, But does not yet make Economic good sense. It still takes about 3-4 units of electricity kWh to make one useable kWh
.Producing Hydrogen from Nuclear Energy is Practical and Proven and may lead to affordable hydrogen….But it will take years
A “Rational Energy Policy” to Transition to Future Energy supply, should include All Fuels, including Dispatchable Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear. Renewables where practical.
We should not Shut Down and Demolish Existing Generation until new HELE Coal Plants for Bulk Power Generation is assured in order to maintain a Balanced Generation Portfolio.
A partial list of key players that are setting U.S. Energy Policy. (Hint, These are not people trained in engineering & planning Electricity Generation Capacity):
EPA 2020 Cleaner Air Graph of air quality and pollutants. This shows the great progress in removing true pollutants from U.S. Air since 1970 Founding of the EPA, while miles driven, GDP & population increased. The point, it is not about clean air it is about Zealots in charge at the EPA: https://gispub.epa.gov/air/trendsreport/2021/#growth_w_cleaner_air
The preceding list of organizations and individuals are some of the anti conventional fuels Zealots that have molded the United States Energy Policies, which are in fact, Not Energy Policies at all, just a continuing “War on Coal and Conventional Fuels” This my friends is how America the greatest country in the world, is self inflicting harm on our economy, national security and against the best interests of the American people. One would think that the Bureaucrats in Washington do not read the news of the energy problems and causes in Europe? We should know by now, the importance of true Energy Independence.
The U.S. has no Energy Policy in 2022. Only a Decarbonization Policy without a Rational plan to achieve a low carbon Energy supply. Keep in mind, Energy is needed for not only electricity generation, but also for Transportation, Industrial production, Commercial and Residential uses. Currently, about 87% of our total primary energy is provided by conventional sources of natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydroelectric. Wind and Solar provided less than 5% of total Primary Energy in 2021. Yet, there are many influential groups calling for policies to “Electrify Everything”.
Let me digress and quote a highly respected Utility Engineering Manager from the 1970’s. That man is Mendall H. Long, a member of the Greatest Generation who after graduation from NCSU served as the youngest Chief Engineer of the Standard Oil Fleet during WWII. After the war he joined Carolina Power & Light and rapidly rose through the ranks from shift supervisor to Manager of Fossil Plant Engineering. Me and many others loved that man and both his engineering skills as well as his wisdom. In the 1970’s CP&L and Duke Power’s electricity growth was almost 10% per year with growing industrial load and use of heat pumps. At CP&L which then was a 4,000 MW regional utility, the Asheville Unit #2 was built about 1970, then the 700 MW H.B. Robinson nuclear plant about 1971, 420 MW Sutton #3 in 1972 and the 720 MW Roxboro #3 started up in June 1973. Except for Robinson, all coal plants and needed to satisfy load growth. That was when Utilities planned for load growth and added generation based on projections of future demand. The four new units built between 1970 and 1973 above totaled 2,040 MW and the total peak generation was in the range of 4,000 MW. The quote from Mr. Long that I remember as he motioned toward some Internal Combustion gas turbines that were built for peaking and backup of the large new coal plants, “Those are Monuments to Poor Planning”. So, I wonder what the “Monuments to Poor Planning will be in 2024? I worked with and for CP&L during those years and the information provided is from my personal experiences and memory.
Lets take a look at what a Rational plan would be to add generation in anticipation of future Demand. In fact, lets take my adopted state of South Carolina as an example.
South Carolina Electricity Generation Planning 2006-2016
Before I retired from full time employment, I participated in consulting, testing, trouble shooting and design of performance improvements for coal power plants at South Carolina Electric and Gas and Santee-Cooper power plants (as well as many other utilities). During this process I got to know and respect a number of senior managers at these Utilities. One such senior manager was Mr. Bill McCall of Santee-Cooper. I remember one technical conference where Mr. McCall gave a presentation on Santee-Cooper’s load growth from both electricity intensive Industrial plants within the Santee-Cooper service territory, such as Alcoa (now Century Aluminum) and Nucor Steel and the rapid growth of housing (like NC in the 1970’s) and commercial enterprises along the coast north and south of Myrtle Beach. Mr. McCall went on to describe how electric demand was growing at unprecedented levels, and it was. He went on to show the need for building the two additional coal units at the Cross Generating Station, increasing the generation capacity of that plant to 2,340 MW and the need for the proposed 600 MW Pee Dee Generation Plant. Then there was the joint effort/ownership of SCE&G and Santee-Cooper to build the two additional nuclear units at Summer Station in Jenkinsville, SC. The significant dates of new units built or planned to be built during this period is shown below:
1984 Santee-Cooper Electric Generation Peak exceeds 5,000 MW
1984 Cross Generating Station Is Commissioned
1995 Cross Unit #2 Becomes Commercial
1999 800MW Rainy Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Plant Approved for Construction
2004 Two 600 MW Cross Units #3&4 Construction in progress
2004 600 MW Pee Dee Energy Campus is approved by Santee-Cooper Board for construction
2007 New Peak Demand record set at 5,563 MW’s, Cross Unit #3 begins commercial operation
2008 SCE&G and Santee-Cooper File appliction for Summer Unit #3 Nuclear Unit (1,100 MW)
2011 NRC approves second Summer Nuclear Unit for a total expansion of 2,200 MW of new nuclear power generation capacity. This is shared capacity of SCE&G and Santee-Cooper with Santee-Cooper having a 45% ownership share. Now, the foregoing new plants to be added from 2007 on would seem to be a good plan for growth. It was until two major problems: 1. The 600 MW Pee Dee Energy Campus was cancelled in 2009 due largely to outside interference and agitation from environmental extremist groupsand 2. Mismanagement of construction of the two nuclear units at Summer by SCE&G. A Rational Plan for new generation capacity of Dispatchable coal and nuclear generation capacity was scrapped. Now, there are increasing public and government pressures to install only wind and solar and to shut down existing coal plants as soon as possible. The 1,045 MW Winyah coal plant is planned to be shut down in 2028. But, at this writing there is no definite plan (that I am aware) to replace the 1,045 MW of coal generation. The illustration below is from Santee-Cooper’s IRP presentation.
When I first became associated with Santee-Cooper in 1971 as one of the test engineers performing acceptance testing at the Jefferies Coal plant in Moncks Corner, the system peak load was about 3,000 MW. Since then as can be seen from the projections to the future, Santee-Cooper’s service territory will grow to over 6,000 MW by 2037.
Who is Accountable for Poor Planning?
In my opinion, there are multiple reasons and organizations that have brought our country to the absense of proper generation planning. Eight major contributors to “Poor Planning” are the U.N.-IPCC, the World Economic Forum, the Main Stream Media, Public Indoctrination by Politicians that follow the “Green Religion”, the U.S. Democrat Party, Environmental Extremist Organizations, Billionaire activists such as Bezos and Bloomberg and Public School Indoctrination of Green Policies. I presented my views to the ENERUM Energy Forum in Columbus in August of this year. One slide I used is copied below:
On a national level, the slide covers many of the major players that have scrapped generation planning, as it was once done by responsible regional utilities. Now, with the emphasis on interconnecting all Utilities with Regional Transmission Operators and a Federal War on Carbon, there is No Rational Energy Policy. Only a policy to attempt to kill coal and gas plants. It is un-American. My respected engineering manager friend Mr. Long would be screaming from his grave if he knew the madness that has taken over in the U.S. Oh, how I miss gutsy managers like Mendall Long!
Getting back to S.C. and the lack of planning here. Here are a couple newspaper reports regarding the cancellation of the Pee Dee Coal plant and the Summer units 2&3 nuclear plant.
Conclusions
America did better eneration planning in the 1970’s than we do now. In spite of the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, America’s electricity remained reliable, was affordable and it fuled great economic growth 1970-2020.
There is no energy policy. The “Electrify Everything” policy promoted by many here and in Eurpope is based on the myth that wind and solar can provide sufficient power. It can’t.
The Regional Transmission Operators such as MISO, PJM and ERCOT combined with economic incentives for wind and solar have made the Grid fragile and less Resilient.
The Environmental Extremists have made policies to shut down vital coal plants that will contribute to unreliable electricity generation.
The EPA and government is run by environmental extremists that escape accountability for the actions and harm they are causing.
Europe is an example our elected officials could look too to observe the costs and harm that extreme green policies can cause.
Meanwhile, China is growing their economy and is on track to become the world’s largest economy passing the U.S.A. and doing so with massive amounts of coal power.
In closing let me ask you, what do you think the Monuments to Poor Planning will be in 2024?
Respectfully and yours truly,
Dick Storm, November 10, 2022
Believer in Freedom to use of Energy for sustainable high quality lives
Dick Storm's Thoughts on Energy, Education, Economic Prosperity & Environmental Blog 