Conventional energy is vitally important for all that we do. Missing from news reports to the general public is an honest communication to try to explain the huge and enormous energy systems that we depend on each day and the impossibility of replacing conventional energy with wind and solar. To start 2024, I thought I would post a series on the Hard Truths of Energy. I borrowed the title from the 2007 National Petroleum Council report, led by Chairman, Lee Raymond, retired CEO of ExxonMobil. Petroleum, natural gas and coal were important in 2007 and they remain important today. The “Energy Density” of fossil fuels makes them indispensable to sustain our economy and our high quality of life.(4)
Fossil Fuels Provide 79% of U.S. Primary Energy
79 Quadrillion BTUs is the amount of energy we depend on from fossil fuels. This is my attempt to try to explain and illustrate what 79 Quadrillion BTUs of energy looks like. The number 79 Quadrillion is from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore Laboratory for energy use in 2022.(2) Below is a short summary of the amount of natural gas, petroleum and coal that we used in the U.S.A. in 2022.
How Huge is a Quadrillion?
I have discussed the steady U.S. energy demand of 100 Quadrillion BTUs per annum for decades and yes, 100 Quadrillion BTUs is the amount of energy we use each year and it has been steady for over 20 years.(6) Until now, I did not take the time to explain the enormity of a Quadrillion BTUs. Here is what one Quadrillion BTUs of energy is equivalent to:
Coal= About 50 million tons of coal. This would be a coal pile that would be one mile wide, ten feet high and 3.3 miles long.
Oil= 7.14 Billion gallons. See Lee Raymond quote below on the quantity of motor fuels used in the U.S. in a year
Natural Gas= 1 Trillion cubic feet. This is equivalent to 200 aircraft carrier sized LNG Tankers. More on the enormity of an LNG ship below.
It is a fact, in America, we use and need about 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year.
36 Quadrillion BTUs of Petroleum
The single largest form of energy that we depend on is petroleum. About 20 million barrels per day. To visualize what 20 million barrels per day would look like, take a look at the photo of me and the 48″ Alyeska pipeline in Alaska. At its peak flow, about 2 million barrels per day flowed through the Alaska pipeline. So, to visualize 20 million barrels per day, picture in your mind, ten of these 48″ pipelines installed side by side.
Photo credit, Dick Storm circa 2007
Another illustration was offered by Lee Raymond, retired CEO of ExxonMobil when introducing the National Petroleum Council report “Facing the Hard Truths of Energy” in 2007. This explanation is offered by Mr. Raymond on You Tube, here. Mr. Raymond explained that the amount of motor fuels used in 2006 was about 150 Billion gallons. He then went on to state that if each gallon was placed in a one gallon tin can as he used in his youth to fill his lawnmower, the length of 10″ high cans, if placed end to end would circle the earth 1,000 times. That is the enormity of 150 Billion gallons of motor fuel. Mr. Raymond stated, (among other important points), “To replace current energy systems it will take a an enormous effort and a long period of Time.”(5)
The gasoline and Diesel motor fuels used in the U.S. has increased from the 150 Billion gallons consumed in 2007, to about 209 Billion gallons in 2022.
33 Quadrillion BTUs of Natural Gas
America used 33.4 Quadrillion BTUs of natural gas during 2022. Most of the natural gas used by the U.S. is distributed by a vast network of unseen, underground pipelines. Therefore, hard to visualize. So, let’s imagine that if we were to use all of our natural gas from shipments of LNG, (Liquified Natural Gas) how many huge LNG Super Tankers would it take? Such as the vessel Pan American shown below:
This LNG tanker holds 174,000 cubic feet of liquified natural gas. LNG is 1/600th the volume of the gaseous state. The ship is over 977 feet long and the gross tonnage is 114,966. This is a ship about the size of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier. The energy equivalent of the cargo is about 6 trillion BTUs.
Now, imagine 6,600 ships like the Pan American above all lined up along the east coast. If the ships were placed touching, end to end, this would be about 1,220 miles of ships from New York City to south of Miami, Florida. That is the number of aircraft carrier sized LNG tankers that it would take to provide 33 Quadrillion BTUs of natural gas fuel. The 33 Quadrillion number is from 2022, the actual demand. The future will likely require more than 33.4 Quadrillion BTUs.
10 Quadrillion BTUs of Coal Power
Coal power has been important to the U.S. since the days of Thomas Edison, Nikola Tesla and George Westinghouse. The American electric system, referred to as the “Grid” was built on the foundation of reliable, affordable, domestically supplied and environmentally clean steam power generation fueled by coal. This took over 125 years to build and has been described by the Smithsonian as, “The Largest Machine Ever Built”. Video here. As recent as 2011 about 50% of America’s electricity was produced by steam turbines with steam generation from coal fuel. In 2022 the coal powered electricity generation dropped to about 20%. Much of the total electricity generation which was once powered by coal fuel, has been switched to natural gas fuel.
As recent as 2011 America used about a billion tons of coal. In 2022 coal use declined by about 50% to about 512,000 million tons. Coal is important because of it’s enormous energy density. Another important fact, is that weeks and months of primary energy can be safely stored on site. Coal provides Dispatchable power and it is proven to be affordable. America has the largest coal reserves of any country. The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal.
How much coal is 512,000 million tons? This is enough coal to fill about 5,000,000 coal cars such as the one shown below.
How long would a single train of 512,000,000 tons of coal be? About 50,000 miles, long enough to circle the earth two times at the equator.
Conclusions
The so-called energy transition from conventional to wind and solar is simply not possible with today’s technology. As Mr. Raymond stated in 2007, changing from our conventional energy systems to something else is an enormous effort that will take. a long time.
Net-Zero Carbon by 2050 is impossible. A previous blog post is here.
The largest energy density and provider of the greatest quantity of carbon-free energy is nuclear power. However, replacing the existing electric generation with nuclear will take decades to accomplish and massive roll back of Federal Regulations. It took about 40 years to develop, manufacture, construct and perfect the 93 operating commercial nuclear units in 54 plants. These currently provide about 20% of America’s electricity. Most of these are now over 30 years old and the last two units built by Southern Company (2,200MW capacity) took over ten years to build. A previous blog post discusses “Without New Thinking on Nuclear Power, Net Zero Carbon is Impossible”, here.
Electrifying Everything is not possible, even electrifying transportation is not practical for every vehicle and if they were, much more electricity would be required.
The so-called energy transition from conventional forms of energy to wind and solar is impossible and attempting to do so by forced laws (such as the IRA), increased Regulations and the continuing war on carbon will destroy our country.
It is my hope and prayer that after the next election some sanity to energy policy will return.
Sources of Primary Energy for Electricity Generation, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial and Residential uses. Electricity generation was described in part 1, here. The purpose of this article is to describe where the other 63% of the Primary Energy is used and why gasoline, Diesel, jet fuel, natural gas remain important to sustaining our high quality of living, food production (91,92) and freedom to travel. The Primary energy consumed numbers below are from the LLNL energy flow chart for 2022, published a few weeks ago.(1)
Precious articles that I have written cover the importance of energy in our lives. In particular, how each of us uses between 833,000 and a million BTUs of energy each and every day to power our lives. Here. Also on how conventional forms of energy provide most of the energy we depend on every day. Here and Here.
The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has provided Energy Flow Diagrams for the Department of Energy for many years. The chart below shows the updated, total Primary energy flows for the year 2022. A green oval surrounds the 5.7% Primary energy provided by wind and solar. Yes, that is right, wind and solar together provided less than 6% of the total PRIMARY energy used by Americans during all of 2022.
The fact is, after many years of government subsidies, wind and solar are still single digits of the total primary energy sources to power our lives. America depends on over 94% of our total primary energy from conventional forms of primary energy. 79% from fossil fuels. The chart below is from the U.S. Dept. of Energy EIA website.
The topic for this article is Fuel Diversity. The Conventional primary energy chart 1776-2022 shows the progress through history of how our quality of life, industrial production and economy improved to become better and better. From the days of the 1960’s when the theme was “Living Better Electrically”(93) up until current time, more energy was needed to replace muscle power for these improvements in quality of life and freedom. Here. Then, as noted in previous articles, since about the year 2000, America has needed and used a steady 100 Quadrillion Btus of total primary energy. In fact, 2022 was exactly 100.3 Quadrillion Btus. This primary energy can be sourced from a variety of fuels for electricity generation and for some other uses as is shown on the EIA chart above. However, when transportation is considered, the choices of substitution of fuels becomes more dependent on energy density. In other words, Jet Fuel cannot be replaced by nuclear, coal or natural gas.
Ron Stein wrote an excellent article on the importance of oil and what if we returned to life as it was in the 1800’s? It is here. Some excerpts from his CFACT article entitled, “What if We Went Back to a Fossil Fuel Free Society like the 1800’s?”:
The pre-1800s, when the world had no fuels other than wood, dung, and crop waste and used animals for transport. (Kindly refer to the chart above, Fuels used 1776-2022)
A food crisis in which billions will die. Fossil fuels are used to plant, harvest, process, refrigerate, deliver, and cook food for most of the 8 billion people living on earth. And for the plastic to keep it safe and fresh a lot longer.
A forest and wildlife crisis as billions go back to using wood as their primary cooking and home heating fuel. Cutting down forests. The air would be far dirtier because of burning wood for fuel.
There would be no products that are based on oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil, coal, and natural gas! Such as life-saving medical equipment, plastics, many chemicals that make our lives better, and just about everything we take to be modern, such as cell phones.
The elimination of all of today’s militaries and space programs as the world reverts to when civilization existed without oil.
Eliminate the need for major shipping ports that accommodate military and cruise ships.
Eliminate the more than50,000 merchant ships that are moving products around the world that are made with the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil, coal, and natural gas!
Thank you Ron Stein for your excellent analyses. Then there are the National defense aspects of energy independence. I wrote on this before too. Here, Here, Here and Here.
Electrify Transportation? What is the Motive?
President Obama and the U.S. auto manufacturing executives agreed to what became an effective EV Mandate in 2012. This was not what Americans wanted and not in the best interests of our country. But, folks, it was during the Obama administration when the “War on Carbon” really started to have a severe impact on the un-American and unwise “Climate Policies” that the destructive Net-Zero Carbon path the Biden Administration has set our country on. My previous article on “How the War on Carbon began” is here. (63)
Conclusions
Americans and all of the free western world need conventional forms of energy to sustain our quality of life and freedom to travel. The government war on carbon is not about saving the planet or environmental protection, it is about control of our lives. Actually, the roots of the environmental activists really go back to Margaret Sanger, the Club of Rome, Paul Ehrlich’s book “The Population Bomb” and policies to limit population of the earth. The World Economic Forum and other activist organizations have advocated “De Industrialization and De Growth”. (19, 29, 30, 31,33)
Rather than solving problems through science and engineering as Fritz Haber did when he invented the Haber-Bosch process about 1908 for producing synthetic ammonia fertilizer and thus, provide increased food production for the people of the world. Read more here.(91) Also, Norman Borlaug who created the “Good and Beneficial Green Revolution” of food production through genetically improved crops.(92) I have written on some of those who are responsible for destructive green energy policies and the ineffectiveness of the United Nations. Here and here.
Whatever the motivations are for Net-Zero Carbon, it will not work and will only weaken our country and work against the best interests of Humanity. There definitely is both strong influence of Green Policies from foreign influence and from NGO’s. These influencers are working against the best interests of our great country. Check references below 19-90 to see for yourself. There are many others included below to support my conclusions and previous articles. Kindly spread the word. The 2024 election is coming and we do not need more energy ignorant, green energy biased and un-American elected officials.
Sheldon Whitehouse’s new book where he will claim the opposition party does what he and his party have done very effectively, for decades: “The Scheme, where He accuses Republicans of using Dark Money”, when in fact, the Democrats do it much more: https://thenewpress.com/books/scheme
The Democrat “Green New Deal” policies to attempt to achieve Net-Zero Carbon will likely create energy and electricity shortages this coming winterand worse yet, contribute to the continuing decline of our country.
Energy: Pre-requisite for Economic Prosperity
In part 1 I discussed the path to prosperity of the U.S. during the last 80 years. America was clearly the strongest country in the world by any measure of industrial production, Intellectual advancement, science, space, aeronautics, respect in the world, the world’s largest economy, the world’s largest manufacturer of products, progress in environmental protection, freedom and ease of travel for the citizens and the building of infrastructure, including the most reliable power generation system in the world. The Grid is described by the Smithsonian Magazine as “The Greatest Machine Ever Built, the North American Power Grid“. Yes, our energy and electricity generation infrastructure was the best in the world. The government Bureaucrats in charge of our country are dismantling and wrecking “The Greatest Machine Ever Built”….plus faceless Bureaucratic Agencies in Washington are weakening the Primary energy supplies that our country, military, industries, economic progress and the sources of primary energy that citizens depend on each day. Wrecking it in plain sight.
Government Especially the Democrat Party is Self- Sabotaging America’s Energy and Electricity Generation Infrastructure
Here is a listing of 100 Executive orders compiled by the American Energy Alliance which are against the best interests of America. The EPA, Dept. of Energy, Dept of Interior, Securities and Exchange Commission and essentially all alphabet soup government agencies are weaponized against fossil fuels as part of Biden’s “War on Carbon” under the heading “Climate Change”. The policies to weaken America and including our military strength are beyond absurd, they are Un-American. Here are four posts on my blog and on LinkedIn that outline who the organizations and people are that are behind the un-American energy policies. Here, here, here and here.(6, 7, 8, 9) Disguised as “Climate Policies” they really have nothing to do with protection of human health or the environment. Then there is Dr. Euan Mearns post on WUWT , “The Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”. Here.
Remember the Oil Embargoes of the 1970’s? What comes next due to Un-American Climate Policies, will likely be Worse
During the time period 1940-2022 America made huge advancements in energy production and electricity generation. These are described in part I. Most of this era was positive growth and advancements until there was an interruption of energy supply. That was in the mid 1970’s , caused by the 1973-74 Oil Embargo. Yes, I know, that is history and a long time ago. The reason I bring it up is because the self sabotaging of American energy and electricity generation policies are likely to create more harm and suffering for the citizens than the two oil embargoes of the 1970’s. For a review of history, let me suggest reading the Federal Reserve and Office of the Historian reports. (3 & 4)
Some of the Expected Consequences of Biden’s Climate Policies
Think about your life and what you do each day, what you depend on. Electricity provides heating and cooling for our home, hot water for your shower in the morning, provides heat to cook breakfast. Then, you turn the ignition on in your car and drive to work. If you work for an industrial manufacturing company it is powered by electricity and probably natural gas. Perhaps you are planning a vacation to fly to a tropical island or ski resort. You get the picture, all of these steps we take each day are dependent on reliable, affordable energy. If you disagree with me thus far then think about the last hurricane or severe storm that killed electric power for a day or more. Think about how the loss of electricity or availability of gasoline creates hardship and changes to your life-style. I am old enough to remember the oil embargoes of the 1970’s. The oil embargoes of 1973, 1974 and 1978 caused financial distress of some of the strongest industries and businesses in our country. In my analysis, the energy crisis that is coming will be worse than what we experienced in the 1970’s. What is so alarming is, that it did not have to come to this. These policies have been implemented by (so-called) public servants and elected officials. Unfortunately the only Science that these energy and climate policy makers understand is Political Science.
Nationally Recognized Experts Weigh In
FERC is an acronym for the “Federal Energy Regulatory Commission”. One of the very respected past commissioners, Mr. Mark Christie has testified before Congress and more recently at a conference in Dallas, TX.
FERC Commissioner Mark Christie likened the current state to that of the Great Depression, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt said the country was facing a rendezvous with destiny.
“We’re at a very critical time … reliability means, ‘Are the lights going to stay on?’ That’s what it means to the general public,” Christie said. “Are the lights going to stay on? We’re really at a point where that’s coming into serious question. Are the lights going to stay on?
“Right now, when it comes to the reliability of our grid, the United States is facing a rendezvous with reality. Reality is just around the corner. You may think you can avoid it for a while, but reality will track you down. And reality is tracking us down when it comes to the reliability of our grid,” he added.
Testifying before the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee in May, Christie told lawmakers the grid is facing “potentially catastrophic consequences.” He said he was not trying to be melodramatic. (See Senators Praise Phillips, FERC’s Output at Oversight Hearing.)
The quote from above is from Mr. Mark Christie. Others besides him have warned of the environmental zealots in the EPA and their war on all fossil fuels. Michelle Bloodworth of America’s Power wrote an excellent article in Real Clear Energy, here. (11)
The EPA is either completely out of control or it is controlled by forces that have nefarious goals for America. Here is an example of my local electricity provider’s forecast of future electricity demand and the generation resources they “Hope” to have after 2030 when they plan to shut down several of the reliable, low cost and Dispatchable coal generating plants. Notice how in 2029 the coal generation assets drop off, yet the Demand projection continues to increase. It is a fair question to ask, why are the coal plants being shut down, if the power is needed? Why were no modern clean coal plants built since 2013? The Democrat Party’s “War on Coal is the reason. Here is an excellent report by the 114th Congress, published in 2015.(12)
Then there is the major investor owned utility to the north and one excerpt from their IRP (Integrated Resource Plan) is similar. It is copied below. Both of these Utilities are planning to shut down major coal generation that has served them and their customers well for, in Duke’s case over 100 years. Notice the figure below, this is an excerpt from the Duke Energy IRP. The coal plants, like Santee-Cooper’s have served Duke very well for many years but because of government policies of Net-Zero Carbon, they plan to shut down much of the coal generation by 2036. Interestingly, it is plainly shown as a “Firm Resource Gap”. That means less generation capacity than what is forecasted as the Demand. This is in plain sight and prepared by engineers and managers that must know better. I am perplexed as to why more managers and engineers do not speak out?
This winter(10, 11) is likely to result in more Blackouts and energy shortages. In my opinion it will be somewhat like the hardships of the 1973 Oil Embargo. This time it is our own President and Bureaucratic agencies that are causing it. Did Mark Levin get it right with his selection of the title of his recent book, “The Democrat Party Hates AMERICA“? Well right now, it looks like Mark Levin is correct, and I came to that same conclusion before his book was published back in 1998 when I first ran into EPA actions of “New Source Review” by the Clinton Administration. My previous blog post in 2021 outlined “The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be”here. (13) The administration of President Jimmy Carter has been criticized for decades. In my life experiences in the power industry, today Jimmy Carter looks like an American Patriot, Energy Expert and a Saint compared to Joe Biden and his administration.
Decline by Design
The influencers of American energy policies have been discussed by me and others. Some recent reports by NERC, FERC & RTO’s warn of unreliable Bulk Power Supplies in the near future. Numerous books and articles by Donn Dears, Judith Curry, the CO2 Coalition, CFACT, Ed Ireland, Robert Bryce, the Washington Examiner and many others have documented “Weaponization of the EPA” and the entire government of the Biden Administration. It is obvious to me that this is not naiveté or foolishness. It has to be intentional. I am angry that Congress has not reigned in the Executive Branch Agencies.
Conclusions
The high quality of life that we have come to enjoy along with a growing stock market, reasonable cost food and much more is at risk. Our future is uncertain because the President and government policy makers are self sabotaging America’s energy and electricity infrastructure.
The general public is not interested in pushing back and has continued to vote for Presidents, Senators and Congressional Representatives that are just as unaware of the importance of energy and electricity generation as their constituents
Public education on Energy and Electricity has failed
“Woke” Businesses and Industries have promoted Green and renewable energy when their leaders must know better but they do it to follow the “Green New Deal” cash flow
Congress has Delegated too Much Power to Federal Agencies and they Refuse to Reign them in. Especially the EPA
Given the Net-Zero Carbon Path that we are on, the Future of America’s Energy and Economic Progress is at Risk. The title of one of Donn Dears Book had it right: “Net-Zero Carbon- The Climate Policy Destroying America” Yes, it is true. The Biden Climate Policies are Destroying America.
I have believed for many years that no one should bet against America and I love America and feel as Patriotic as anyone. However, the Climate policies currently in place has our country on a very uncertain path. Energy that is Reliable, Affordable and Available when we need it is not optional…..Energy is vital to keep our country strong. Why is our government at war with the lifeblood of our country? Why isn’t Congress acting? Why are senior engineers and managers in Electric Utilities not pushing back?
America has the largest coal reserves in the world, about 22% of the world’s coal. America also has all the uranium needed to fuel our nuclear plants and enough oil and gas to provide the primary energy America needs for decades. So, why have we allowed a minority of people and leaders to smear and demonize the conventional fuels that we depend on every day? Worse yet, allow them to weaken our country.
Introduction
Are Blackouts and Gas Lines Inevitable? Is that what it will take for American Voters to Wake up and Elect Leaders to Reverse the Atrocious Policies of the Green New Deal? (aka “The ridiculously named, “Inflation Reduction Act”)
Last week I was having a conversation with a friend who is developing a proprietary process to reduce the CO2 emissions of coal and with a goal to make coal combustion as clean or cleaner burning, than natural gas. My friend Steven asked me, “If we reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 70%, reduce all other pollutants to near zero and basically make coal as clean or cleaner than natural gas, Do you think we could get public acceptance?” I thought about my answer and paused. As I recall, my answer went like this. “That will be hard to do, because there has been 50 years of indoctrination and demonization of first coal and now all fossil fuels, including gas. However, as people experience energy shortages, gas lines, food shortages, inflation and Blackouts, their perceptions should change”. Energy provides Life as we have come to know and enjoy it!
Energy shortages and energy poverty is the path our government has set us on, unless, somehow, we change the perceptions of the sources of energy that America has within our borders. Sustainable living, by my definition, is to sustain the 21st Century life-style that science and technology has made possible over the last 100 years. We enjoy very high quality of lives, including reasonable cost food production for us to share with less fortunate countries. Our quality of life and existence depends on energy. Think about how you missed energy during the last hurricane or winter storm when you might have been without adequate energy for a day or two. That does not happen very often in the U.S., but if current climate policies which demonize and restrict conventional forms or energy are continued, then energy shortages could become the new normal.
Perceptions Matter
On the topic of clean coal combustion I remembered a presentation to the American Coal Council membership that I presented in 2008. The title of the presentation is “Enhancing the Perceptions of Coal”. The purpose of the presentation was to stimulate interest amongst the members of the American Coal Council to encourage ACC members to become more engaged in public energy education. This has been a concern and passion for me since the 1990’s when the “War on Coal” was accelerated by the EPA of the Clinton Administration. Back then, we thought “New Source Review” was as bad as it would get for coal power. (EPA-NSR info here. Check this list of 31 Utilities that were wrongly forced to pay enormous cash settlements and/or shut down coal plants).
How Did We Get Into This Mess?
I was mistaken on the power of government to proceed with such un-American policies and I along with many others underestimated the harm to public perceptions that Obama, the Environmental Extremist/Activists, Liberal Democrats, NGO’s, the World Economic Forum, the Main Stream Media and “Woke corporations could cause. My blog post on my view of the history of the U.S. War on Coal is here and David Blackmon’s sub stack post “Carbon Fascism, Where it Came From”here. The “Shale Gas Revolution” came to fruition after 2008 and abundant gas supplies provided reasonable cost electricity generation from quickly built gas turbine combined cycle power plants. Here is a chart of natural gas prices over a five year period 2006-2011 leading up to the Shale Gas Revolution in electric power generation.
From 2012 Presentation by Storm Technologies to a Florida Utility with the purpose of explaining why Excellence in Operations & Maintenance of Coal Plants is Important Remain Competitive. Data from EIA
The cheap Shale Gas ( I hate the word Cheap, but feel this is an appropriate place to use it) created a domestically available, abundant Primary energy fuel that electric Utilities could and did burn instead of coal and at no increase in production cost to be passed on to the consumer. When gas prices dropped below about $2.25/million Btu.
The production cost component of electricity from the primary energy source, natural gas is about 90% fuel cost. Also, gas turbine combined cycle plants could be permitted easily and rapidly built for much less cost than a clean coal plant. About $1,000/kWh capacity vs. about $3,000/kWh capacity for coal. Of course, permitting a coal plant was and remains nearly impossible with strangling Federal Regulations. Therefore, as gas prices tumbled due to an enormous supply increase, gas became less cost than coal as a power generation fuel. Many GTCC plants were built during this time.
Therefore, the Shale Gas Revolution provided cover for the Green Policies that became very extreme during the “Reign”of Gina McCarthy, The EPA Administrator, During the Obama Regime
Here is a graphic from one of my OLLI courses on power generation by fuels, 2004 and 2019.
Five points of my ACC 2008 presentation: This presentation summarized the timeline of Perceptions of energy 1950-2008 and suggested actions to change the perceptions of the public on coal.
Have We Passed the Tipping Point? Are We Doomed to Energy Poverty and Unreliable Electric Power Generation, Blackouts & Brownouts? Can Politicians Fix the Flawed Policies? Will They?
I read the Hill article criticizing Donald Trump’s speeches where Trump stated that if elected, “I will end green new deal atrocities the first day”. At first I was encouraged at the headline but then reading the article it went on to explain that the “Green New Deal” is codified as public law, enacted by Congress and signed into law by President Biden as the so called, “Inflation Reduction Act”. Therefore, according to the Hill and my rudimentary understanding of how laws are created or changed, it will take both Congress and the President to shut down what President Trump refers to as “Green New Deal Atrocities”. I agree with Trump, but getting Congress to take action seems like a tall order.
The Consequences of Continuing the Net-Zero Carbon Path
Frequent disruptive energy shortage events such as Blackouts, gas lines, loss of industrial productive capacity, deindustrialization,
food shortages and massive job losses. These are All possible with a shortage of energy.
When these occur, Congress may wake up? It should not take energy shortage emergencies to engage Congress. This time, energy shortages are likely to be worse than the 1973 and 1978 Oil Embargoes. In my lifetime I remember the 1973 Oil Embargo and Congress providing a clear path for the Alyeska pipeline to be built in record time of two years 1975-1977.
A coming energy crisis worse than 1973 is likely and it is not just me saying that. Fatih Birol head of the IEA, Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Associates and others have stated this warning.
If we do have energy shortages worse than the mid 1970’s, then Congress may reign in the EPA and other government Bureaucrats? But with Biden as President, it will be hard. I have written other posts on the importance of energy here and here. America has been moving forward on energy policy like a Train Wreck in slow motion. Michele Bloodworth of America’s Power wrote in her Commentary“Are We Headed for A Reliability Train Wreck” in POWER Magazine.
Happening In Plain Sight!
Watching this is frustrating, painful and wrong. America is the strongest nation in the world with millions of smart technically trained engineers, it is not necessary for our great country to experience energy shortages. Yet, that seems to be the path that the government has chose.
The high quality of living that we have been accustomed to requires a lot of primary energy. About 300-330 million Btu’s per capita/year. Previous posts hereand here cover my thoughts on the energy we use and depend on. All totaled this is about 100 Quadrillion Btus/annum for the entire population of the U.S.A. This has been steady for about the last 25 years. Note the chart below from the EIA:
The fuels that provide this needed energy are about 93% conventional fuels, natural gas, nuclear, gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel, Nuclear and Coal. These fuels and their importance is described in my posts here and here.
Self-Sabotaging America’s Energy Infrastructure, Specifics
Some of the specific actions by the government as part of the misguided War on Carbon:
In 2008 I was worried about the “Perceptions of the Public on Coal. The harm done by indoctrinating the public and literally demonizing carbon has now put America on a path of energy poverty as we had in 1973 and 1978 with the oil embargoes.
Electric Vehicle Mandate (BTW This started in 2012 with the Obama Administration and the impossible to achieve Fleet Mileage mandate of autos required to achieve 54.5 mpg by 2030)
EPA Rules to Shut Down Coal Plants
Formation and expansion of RTO’s which have destroyed accountability for generation reserves from Regional Utilities. Such as PJM, ERCOT & MISO
BLM Rules to Restrict Mining
Biden Order to Shut down Keystone Pipeline
U.S. Refining Capacity is Reduced 5%, yet demand has been increasing
Federal ESG guidelines to restrict investments in fossil fuels
EPA Rule is proposed (in spite of SCOTUS past ruling) to Require CO2 Capture of Gas Power Generation Plants by 2040
Biden rescinded Trump era reductions in Federal Regulations on American energy production
Biden Executive Order to Reduce Fossil Fuel Production on Federal lands and increase Green energy to tackle the Climate Cris. Full EO here.
EPA aggressive enforcement of “New Source Review” (NSR) to penalize coal plants
Sweetheart deals between NSR settlements and EPA Lawsuits brought against coal plant operators, to fund NGOs that continue to influence further Self-Sabotaging Regulations. Example of one of last clean coal plants built in U.S. here.
Many more…..
The American Energy Alliance published a list of 100 ways the Democrats and Biden have made producing energy in America more difficult. The is as of May 2022 and the war on carbon continues. The AEA list is here.
So, what are we going to do about it?
To be perfectly honest with you, I am frustrated that our government is controlled by elected, appointed and career Bureaucrats, many who believe believe in the misguided green energy myth. To put the number in perspective, there are about 19.23 million state and Federal government employees, according to Statista.
Back to my ACC presentation in 2008. One slide I used is copied below. This quote, was used by President Kennedy in one of his famous speeches and he attributed it to Edmund Burke:
Yes, it is a small minority of leaders that have waged a very effective war on carbon. It is not only a matter of demonizing carbon, their goal is to control our lives and to de-industrialize, de-populate and downsize the energy use to lead to a smaller population on the planet. Donn Dears, Dr. Tim Ball, myself and many others have written about the U.N. Agenda 21 and the U.N.-IPCC. My blog with references for further reading is here. The small number of “leaders” have influenced electric utilities, the Entertainment Industry, the MSM and many “Woke” businesses and corporations to promote Green Propaganda. Again referring to David Blackmon’s excellent piece, “Carbon Fascisim, Where it Came From” here, Blackmon enumerates the small number of people who have initiated the ludicrous (some would say, evil) policies on the Free World. The frightening aspect of Federal rules and laws is that only 435 members of Congress plus nine Supreme Court Justices can codify anti-American energy policies that will be very hard to reverse. Congress, in my view, has been negligent in delegating full authority for the protection of public health to the EPA. It started out well in 1970. However, since then the EPA employs, about 15,000 and like other government agencies, have been weaponized against the best interests of America by Biden and Democrats in Congress. The war on conventional energy began with Clinton, continued with Obama and now has reached criticality with the Biden Administration.
It is this reality that concerns me to ask the question, “Are we doomed to face Energy Poverty?” What about the 3 Billion souls in Developing countries that use less electricity a year than we use to power our refrigerators for a year and cook over open fires fueled by cow dung or firewood? Then there is the concern of fertilizer production which is crucial for food production. Dr. Samuele Furfari has written an excellent article in European Science here. Another Blog on Substack, “Carbon Myopia” by Robert Bryce is here and Liberty Energy’s report on “Bettering Human Lives” is here.
Dr. Furfari’s article is entitled “Agriculture: Who Wants to Replace 22 Billion Human Equivalents?” The basic message from Dr. Furfari is, “energy has replaced muscle power over the last 120 years and the simple math to arrive at the muscle power of 22 Billion people is: A steam horse is worth 736 watts and an average man is worth 100 watts, so we have 30 million tractors x 100 horsepower x 7.36 = 22 billion“
Slide from Dick Storm presentation to Rotary Club on “Demystifying the Importance of Energy”
Furfari’s article is worth reading for some excellent background on the importance of energy to produce food for the world. More articles and books by Dr. Furfari are included in the references below.
What are the Western World leaders thinking?
They Certainly do not understand the basics pf energy and electricity generation. Check these Blogs of Robert Bryce (Carbon Myopia) here and David Blackmon’s (Carbon Fascism) here. Also, as noted above, the books and articles by Samuel Furfari, Donn Dears and Vaclav Smil are all very well researched and well written.
So Why Am I Worried?
Even my conservative red state of S.C. is headed for a path of electricity shortages. I wrote about this on my blog here. The Federal laws that have been enacted by Congress and approved by President Biden plus extreme anti-carbon based rules by EPA Regulations, in my view, these are simply un-American. Why? To be polite, I chalk it up to our leaders being ignorant in the fundamentals of physics and energy. A darker reason is if a number of the elected officials and NGOs that influence the EPA and government officials may have been influenced by NGO’s and including foreign Dark money. The next post on this blog will be an Appendix to include references for further reading to support my assertions.
In Our Republic, The Citizens Get The Leaders They Deserve! (Really, Do we?)
About 25 years ago when Bill Clinton was President, I remember working at a Canadian Utility. I made the mistake of commenting on my views of the EPA anti-coal policies of Carol Brower, who was then the head of the EPA in the Clinton Administration. My Canadian friends remarked, “In a Democracy you get the leaders you deserve”. I was humbled, embarrassed and thought, that was dumb of me to complain of U.S. politics amongst Canadians. My mistake and I attribute the gaff to just feeling at home with friendly folks that just happened to be Canadian citizens, only a two hour flight away. The point is, the remark, “In a Democracy We Get What We Deserve” has stuck with me. In our Republic, “Do We Get the Leaders We Deserve?” Let’s take a look at some reasons to be concerned. All of my energy engineer friends know how foolish and wrong the “Green New Deal” is. One friend, Donn Dears, told me privately, “This is a battle America must win!” Dears has written about a dozen books and is an acknowledged expert on energy and energy policies. Other energy and environmental science experts have also written extensively. Amongst them are Dr.’s Vaclav Smil, Judith Curry, Richard Lindzen, Steve Koonin, the NASA Right Stuff Team, CO2 Coalition, Heartland Institute, CFACT, American Energy Alliance and dozens of others that have written on energy and climate policy. My previous blogs have outlined the flawed science and reasons for destroying the energy infrastructure that powers America. However, the elected officials of the political party that favors these un-American, anti-conventional fuels policies are in power now and may in fact, win again in 2024. Some of the major influencers are mentioned in my post here. Why am I concerned? Because the carbon haters have done a very effective indoctrination (Scare Mongering) of millions of voters. Please read on…
Elections Matter and Here are Some Reasons of Why I am Concerned
Energy illiteracy in America is widespread. The indoctrination and demonization of carbon and nuclear energy has created a perception that many reasonably well educated people favor the “Myth of Green Energy”. I say this based on the successful indoctrination/Demonization of carbon by the U.N. , the World Economic Forum, The Sierra Club, The Natural Resources Defense Council, many other Environmental NGOs. Here is a figure I created for a presentation to the ENERUM, energy forum in Columbus and a couple other public meetings. A short review of “Demystifying Energy” is here.
Planned parenthood which is over 40% funded by Taxpayer dollars, the MSM, Entertainment and the entire Democrat Party which is strongly supported by all of the above. From what I have read about the 2020 voting patterns of suburban women, many voted on the single issue of abortion, based on the recommendations of “Planned Parenthood”. In my previous post, I showed publications that connected Planned Parenthood with the Sierra Club and other “Green Energy” supporting organizations. If you are curious, check the previous post here. Ken Braun of the Capital Research Center provides documentation of the sources of funding for the war on fuels. Names of Foundations from such well known wealthy donors such as Bloomberg, Bezos, MacArthur Foundation, Ford Foundation and others. One Sierra Club and Planned Parenthood alliance letter is here.
The anti conventional energy activists are funded with Billions and Billions of dollars. Check the links to the Capital Research Center’s Ken Braun article here. Then there is this report of the great American name “Ford” Foundation and how they have cooperated with the CCP, here.Henry Ford would not approve as this is against everything he stood for. So much for Donor Intent.
My point is, public indoctrination on green energy is widespread and well funded. The mis-perceptions are fueled by a distorted & fake science that carbon and nuclear are harmful. The gullible public with a general energy ignorance has accepted the 50 year indoctrination.
Next time you are in a social setting, just gently ask the average, educated persons you are with, how many Btus are there in a kWh? (3412.6), or how many Btus are there in a gallon of gasoline (about 125,000). Harder yet, how many foot pounds of energy at 100% efficiency is one BTU equivalent to? (778). More simply, “What is the difference between Primary and Secondary Energy? See what I mean. Now take a look at the U.S. Demographics to elect new leaders.
The 2020 election outcome by counties. The figure below was/is reported in the U.S.A. Today after the 2020 election. Here
The majority of the people in most of American counties favored the policies of Donald Trump. Thus the vast amount of red counties that are shown on the map above. However, land and counties do not vote, people do. Therefore the people of the cities with the minority of land area has the majority of voters. Many of these voters are strongly indoctrinated with propaganda from NGOs, Planned Parenthood amongst them and have been traditionally Democrat strongholds. Over 50% of Americans live in cities and although cities use enormous amounts of energy, the (D) voters not being energy savvy, tend to vote for Democrat candidates, regardless of the foolish and un-American policies they stand for. This is one reason I wrote on the importance of Energy Education here.
If the popular vote determined the outcome of a national election, it would be controlled by just three or four large Metropolitan areas such as NYC, LA, Chicago and Atlanta. Ironically, on an energy use basis, these cities use much more electricity than Rural areas. But the voters in these large Metropolitan areas have typically chosen Democrat candidates that are against conventional energy and they are for the most part, trained in Political Science, no in energy and electricity generation. Most do not know the difference between Primary and Secondary energy, yet they will proclaim as Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has implied…., “Electrify Everything”. Here is the unauthorized Biography of Jennifer Granholm’s by Ken Braun. Granholm, trained as a lawyer is typical of the creators of American energy policy.
My Conclusion: We have a lot of work to do to Educate the Public on the True Facts of Energy and Electricity Generation
I urge my friends and associates to get involved in educating your neighbors, friends and every person you can on the true facts. I know it is hard for anyone employed full-time to do extra curricular presentations to civic clubs, schools, Colleges and any gatherings of more than 25 people who will listen. But if not those of us that understand energy and electricity generation, then who will do it?
We must change the “Perceptions of Conventional Energy”, not only coal. Also, oil, gas and nuclear.
Respectfully and very truly yours,
Dick Storm, July 30, 2023
Green Energy Crisis, Part 4 – Appendix Will be uploaded as a separate post at a later date. This will include extensive Reference Links, Books and Information for those who are interested in further Research
In parts 1 and 2 of this Green Energy Series, the Green Energy Crisis and which people and organizations caused it. (part 1 here and part 2 here) The purpose of this post is to attempt to explain the impossibility of replacing conventional forms of Primary energy with wind and solar.
America consumes right at 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy each year. This has been fairly constant for decades. My previous posts here and here have explained this. Broken down to a per capita basis this is about 315 million Btus per year, per person/year. This is as compiled by the EIA and each BTU of energy is based on the thermodynamic equivalent of the following. From BP stats here:
1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 778 foot pounds of energy
3412.6 BTUs = 1 kWh of electricity
1 Barrell of oil = 42 gallons
1 Barrell of oil=. 5.8 million BTUs
2,545 BTUs = 1 Horsepower
The book, “Clean Energy Crisis” by Donn Dears is an outstanding reference and short read. I will use Mr. Dear’s books, data and calculations for much of this post.
What are the sources of America’s Primary energy now? The two charts that show this best are the Statista Bar chart and the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory Sankey Digram. Both are copied below:
Electrify Everything? Really, Think Again?
The government, MSM, Entertainment, Woke corporations (and there are a lot of them), public school education, the WEF, Environmental Extremists and many politically active organizations have waged a Demonization of conventional fuels since about 1970(13). My take on this history of environmental extremism is covered in part 2 of this series.
Electrifying everything, of course, (such as transportation EV’s) will require much more electricity generation. That is, if we are to continue to live our high quality of living and freedom of travel.
Sustaining our current life-styles and economy will require an average of about 315 million Btus/person/year.
This math is a fact and it is provided by the EIA. Please note the Statista and Sankey Diagrams above which show the Total Primary Energy Flows for 2021. The key word is Primary Energy. Electricity is Secondary Energy. Note that about 37% of the total Primary Energy was used to generate electricity. Of that total, less than 5% of the total Primary Energy used to generate electricity was provided from solar and wind. Let’s go to Mr. Dears book, Clean Energy Crisis and take a look at what it would take to replace fossil fuels. It is my understanding that Mr. Dears book calculations are projected from normal electricity growth, not including “Total Electrification of Transportation” and NOT to provide for Industrial Reshoring of industries lost to China over the last 20 years, especially primary metals industries such as steel, aluminum and copper. Primary metals production is particularly energy intensive.
These numbers below are the number of units of each form of carbon free generation that it would take to provide the electricity demand expected in 2050. Keep in mind, future predictions of any kind are always done with uncertainty.
Wind Turbines- 995,141 units of 2.5 MW each
PV-Solar Panels- 139,964 MW per year, every year till 2050
Nuclear- 851 new nuclear units comparable to Southern Company’s Plant Vogtle in Georgia. This is building 31 new nuclear units every year, till 2050 (The Plant Vogtle Nuclear Power Plant expansion of just two units has been in progress of construction since 2009)
The combined design, manufacturing, construction and commissioning of replacements for the existing installed capacity of coal, gas and nuclear plants would take over a hundred years to build, in my opinion. I recommend reading and referring to Mr. Dears book to form your own opinion. Below is a paragraph from chapter 8 of “Clean Energy Crisis”, page 59:
“Transition Reality”
“1. It is impossible for the United States to achieve Net-Zero carbon by 2050
2. CO2 is not an existential threat to mankind”
If these two conclusions are correct, and there’s considerable evidence that they are, the entire clean energy transition is a dangerous delusion.
Europe is learning the importance of energy security as it struggles to find sources of fossil fuels.”
I agree with the conclusions of Donn Dears.
We Did a Great Job of Energy Education of the U.S. Public 1950-1970. This is The Best Solution of “How to Fix Public & Political Demonization of Carbon” Educate the Public!
This post was started a couple months ago and I thought;
“What is a positive approach to correct the indoctrination?”
The solution to the problem (Self Sabotaging America’s Energy Infrastructure) is Energy Education of the public. Those of us folks who were born before 1950 remember the Public Utilities energy education programs from the 1950’s through the 1970’s “Living Better Electrically”. One example is the Sunday night TV program of the 1960’s, the “General Electric Theatre” which showcased Ronald Reagan as a spokesperson for G-E, to introduce new electrical appliances that were making a Mother’s work easier and living better electrically a reality for all Americans(4). Reddy Kilowatt was the mascot for the programs by the Investor owned Utilities. Living better electrically was shown on TV, electric bill inserts, newspapers and perhaps more importantly, in public schools. Local electric Utilities had regular programs in High Schools to teach not only Home Economics and how to cook using electric stoves, for the girls, but also “How Electricity is Generated” for the boys. I know, today that sounds wrong and politically incorrect, but back when we referred to Boys and Girls. People also had a better understanding of where our electricity came from. In fact, I was one of them that as a 16 year old (in 1959), I became enamored with coal power generation. A true fact. And I was just an average student, but I knew how electricity was generated as a teen.
In my view, this is what America needs again. Improved energy education for all ages to teach the importance of energy and the various sources of primary energy that can meet our needs.
This is a tall order. Better energy education of the public has been an idea I have had for at least two decades. When living in N.C. I did paid weekly “Energy Fact Minutes” on the radio with my old friend Matt Smith and also placed full page paid advertisements in the local Stanly News and Press newspaper.
Since then, I have written to the leaders of several Utility companies, including Lynn Good CEO of Duke Energy and the CEO of our Electric cooperative, A. Berl Davis (Palmetto Electric) to suggest such energy education programs to be reinstated. The letters and message were ignored and in fact, not answered. Those Utilities and Coop’s are Politically Correct and at least partially “Woke”…. they are Promoting the myth of green energy instead of educating the public on the true facts of energy and electricity generation.
A review of the history of how energy replaced muscle power in both the U.S. during the 20th Century and China in the 21st would be instructive for anyone who doubts the importance of conventional energy. I wrote three blog posts on the history of energy and electricity and the growth of economic prosperity, here, here and here. Also, a course presented to USCB-OLLI Program on the history of Energy and Electricity is here.
If Not the Electric Utilities, Then Who Will Educate the Public?
A good question. Mr. Tom Moser of the retired, NASA Right Stuff Climate Team is shown on a presentation by the Heartland Institute in February. At the end of his presentation, (at about the 15 minutes mark) he addresses this issue with regard to educating the public and changing public policy on the current path of Net-Zero Carbon. The number he used was 50 million dollars. A good start, but it will take much more to reverse the demonization of carbon in the public’s minds.
Summary and Conclusions
There are many reasons why the transition to wind, solar and nuclear by 2050 is unreasonable, impractical and essentially, impossible. Some reasons are simply the laws of Physics which have been explained in easy to understand terms by Donn Dears, Vaclav Smil and others. Some of the reasons are Supply-Chain related.
America invented commercial nuclear power generation and once had a strong U.S. based manufacturing infrastructure. I know this for a fact because I was employed by B&W when nuclear power was expected to grow so fast and so efficiently , “It would be too Cheap to Meter”. Now the massive manufacturing facilities of Combustion Engineering in Chattanooga, TN and many more facilities ( like Textiles and Furniture manufacturing in U.S.) are mostly gone. Also, included in the supply chain concerns & limitations is training of the workforce. Those of us old enough to remember President Kennedy’s inspirational “We Choose the Moon” speech of 1960 where he stated we “will land on the moon within ten years” remember the extremely successful upgrading of public education in math and science and the large number of excellent engineers that were trained 1960-1970. In my view, “Electrifying Everything” at least everything possible, will take a larger commitment than the space program of the 1960’s and we cannot electrify everything nor can we replace fossil fuels with wind and solar. The fundamental Physics of energy and electricity need to be taught to all students and adults. Like the Edison Electric Institute and Electric Utilities did in the 1960’s with the “Live Better Electrically” program and Federal and State governments did to inspire excellence in public STEM education, 1960-1970.
So, where do we start? As I see it, we need to educate the public on energy and how it is produced and used. A model of public education on energy was accomplished between 1950 and 1970. Let’s take a look at what we once did in energy awareness for the public. The B&W ad is from a nationally distributed business magazine in 1954.
Just for the record, I practice what I preach and have done my best to spread the word to my friends, neighbors and the communities where I have lived for decades. In the past three years I have presented several courses at USCB-OLLI in Beaufort County, SC, given presentations in Public Schools and civic clubs. Most of my presentations are available in pdf on LinkedIn or on my blog. If I can assist or share any info to others interested in educating the public on the facts of the importance of conventional energy, let me know, I will help as best as I can.
Thank you for reading. This blog is my small contribution to spreading the true facts on the importance of conventional forms of energy.
Yours truly,
Dick Storm, June 23, 2023
References and Further Information
Tom Moser video, (198,298 views Mar 21, 2023) Join former NASA engineer and program director for the space station Tom Moser for a presentation that sheds light on the science behind climate change. Drawing on his impressive credentials, including serving as Acting Associate Administrator for Spaceflight in Washington, D.C., Director of the Space Station Program, Deputy Manager of the Space Shuttle Orbiter, and Chief Engineer at the Johnson Space Center, Moser highlights the correlation between global temperatures and solar irradiance. He also delves into the disparity between real-world data and often reported climate models, which are used as the basis for governmental public policy, and how these models consistently overestimate temperature trends versus the real-world data. Moser exposes the propaganda in the climate science field and breaks down why media claims are often misleading. This informative presentation is not to be missed by anyone interested in gaining a better understanding of climate science. The Fifteenth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC) featured more than 50 speakers who are top scientists in their fields and policy experts from around the world. Each edition of these conferences attracts scientists, legislators, environmentalists, and more all discussing their views on climate science, the idea that there is a crisis, efforts to educate the public, views on the state of discourse, and more. Visit these sites for more great climate information from The Heartland Institute: PLAYLIST FOR THE WHOLE 2023 HEARTLAND INSTITUTE CLIMATE CONFERENCE: • 2023 Climate Conf…
The purpose of this post is to show a few of the warnings that Congress has been unresponsive and the Executive Branch and EPA either clueless or Intentionally Causing the coming energy crisis. Paul Harvey’s classic radio commentary of 1964 comes to mind, “If I Were the Devil”.
Typical Coal Plant Demolition. This one in NSW Australia, but we in the U.S. have performed similar demolition of important power generation stations capable of generating reliable, affordable & Dispatchable power 24/7 during all weather conditions. It is heartbreaking for those of us who understand energy and electricity generation. But, it is cheered by about 50% of the world’s population because those who do not understand the importance of conventional forms of energy have been indoctrinated on the demonization of fossil fuels.
Introduction
Many of us who have been closely associated with energy production and electricity generation have known the day of reckoning is coming. In this post I will lift up some past posts, presentations and published articles to show the foolishness of the “Green New Deal” which has been codified in the so called, “Inflation Reduction Act” or IRA.
Below are two of the slides I presented to the ASME Annual Meeting in 2011. Yes, I have been an advocate for Common Sense Energy Policies for a long time.
The year 2011 was during the Obama Administration and the “War on Coal” was being escalated by the EPA and Activist NGO’s such as the Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, Environmental Defense Fund, Wild Earth Guardians and many more environmental extremist organizations. Shale gas was coming onto the market at ever increasing volume and low prices. Thus, as much coal generation was replaced with natural gas fuel, the consumers and industry had no concerns for the future. But, those of us associated with the power industry knew the crisis was coming.
Let me point out the graph on the second slide above, this correlates Coal use and GDP 1970-2010. Yes, Life was very good for us and our country’s electricity was generated by about 50% coal power generation. Blackouts were very rare. Brownouts were very rare. Let’s fast forward to the claimed great success of the carbon hating Bureaucrats and their allies in the NGO’s. I will show a screen print from the Sierra Club website below. They continue to be very proud of their accomplishments in the war on coal, which really is a war on the consumer.
This is from the Sierra Club web site. Note above they are literally bragging about shutting down 372 coal plants with 158 plants to go. Not only shut down, but completely demolished. Both the environmental activists and the U.S. Government top officials have a goal of shutting down all coal plants by 2030.
Let me direct your attention to the slide below. This is also a screenshot of the Sierra Club web site. Notice that not only do they want to shut down coal plants, they also want to kill natural gas production and pipelines. Not clearly shown today, but in their’s and other activist goals has been the opposition to nuclear power.
At the end of this post I will provide many references for further reading on the war on coal-natural gas and nuclear. This is serious folks. These people and their organizations do not understand energy and appear to have no concern for the harm they are causing to the citizens of the U.S.A.
Part 2 of this post will be a summary of how these Un-American Climate Policies have come to be and to list some of the policies, organizations and people that have contributed to the Clean Energy Crisis that our country and the Free Western World is facing.
Closing
The coalescence of environmental activists, government officials (both elected and Bureaucrats), the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, the Main Stream Media, Entertainment, Woke Businesses & Industries and leftist activist organizations have put our country on a path of weakness and decline. It must be stopped. But before it will be reversed there will be many industries, businesses and citizens who will be harmed. It did not have to happen this way. (2) Kindly read the references listed below for support of my conclusions.
History has shown that countries rise, fall and rise again. The economic decline of the U.S. should not be hastened by self destructive and unnecessary environmental restrictions.
The true facts on the importance of conventional forms of energy are well described in many books. Especially the books by Donn Dears(19) and Vaclav Smil(95) these provide excellent insight into the importance of conventional forms of energy. Mr. Dears provides a very enlightened summary in about 100 pages.
Yours very truly and on this Memorial Day, We should pause and remember those who fought and died to secure our freedom. May God Bless America,
Dick Storm presentation to the American Coal Council, 2008 on “Perceptions of Coal” This is not posted online that I know of. I can send a copy upon request.
Long story shortened, the only way I know to stop the destructive policies is through an intensive energy education program of the general public. The ad below was typical of many in business and industrial trade magazines of the 1950’s and 60’s. It represents the culture of those times.
Introduction
Parts 1 through 4 of this series are my attempt to explain where we are on energy policy and how we got here. Here below are my additional thoughts on “How to Fix” Americans perceptions of the importance of energy in our lives.
Energy Education: The Best Solution of How to Fix Public & Political Demonization of Carbon
This post was started a couple months ago and after I was thinking about “What is a positive approach to correct the indoctrination?” The solution to the problem (Self Sabotaging Madness) is Energy Education of the public. Those of us folks who were born before 1950 remember the Public Utilities energy education programs from the 1950’s through the 1970’s “Living Better Electrically”. One example is the Sunday night TV program, “General Electric Theatre” showcased by none other than future President, Ronald Reagan as a spokesperson for G-E, to showcase new electrical appliances that were making a Mother’s work easier and living better electrically a reality for all Americans(4). Reddy Kilowatt was the mascot for the programs by the Investor owned Utilities. Living better electrically was shown on TV, electric bill inserts, newspapers and perhaps more importantly, in public schools. Local electric Utilities had regular programs in High Schools to teach not only Home Economics and how to cook using electric stoves, for the girls, but also “How Electricity is Generated” for the boys. I know, today that sounds wrong and politically incorrect, but back when we referred to Boys and Girls. People also had a better understanding of where our electricity came from. In fact, I was one of them that as a 16 year old (in 1959), I became enamored with coal power generation. A true fact. And I was not exactly a standout scholar, but I knew how electricity was generated as a teen. Here is a reminder of the correlation of GDP and coal consumption 1970-2010. (148)
In my view, this is what America needs again. Improved energy education for all ages to teach the importance of energy and the various sources of Primary energy that can meet our needs.
This is a tall order. Better energy education of the public has been an idea I have had for at least two decades. When living in N.C. I did weekly “Energy Fact Minutes” on the radio with my old friend Matt Smith and also placed full page advertisements in the local Stanly News and Press newspaper. I have written to the CEO’s of several Utility companies, including Lynn Good of Duke Energy and the CEO of our Electric cooperative (Palmetto Electric) to suggest such energy education programs to be reinstated. The letters and message were ignored and in fact, not answered. Those Utilities and Coop’s are what I consider “Woke”…. and they are Promoting the myth of green energy instead of educating the public on the true facts of energy and electricity generation. Speaking of misinformation and “Wokeness” below is a screen shot from the NextEra Energy web site. A plan for Net Zero, really? Electrify everything? This and other once fine Utility companies have gone “Woke” and are promoting solar and wind power when they fully know it is not possible to replace the 100 Quadrillion BTUs that America needs every year. Why? Two reasons: 1. Follow the money through government subsidies and 2. Avoid the wrath of punishment of well funded (Billions of $) environmental extremist groups. Below is a screen print of the NextEra Energy website as an example.
I do a lot of complaining regarding the government, NGO’s, Woke Industries and public education, so it seems reasonable that I should at least offer a positive suggestion of a solution. A suggestion “How to Correct” the 50 year indoctrination and demonization of the fuels we depend on, Improve energy education.
An informed and energy savvy public will be capable of making the best choices of candidates when voting in the 2024 election. The best hope for America, is that informed and energy savvy candidates will change the destructive Net Zero Policies forced on industry and the citizens.
Did you ever wonder how the misconceptions of energy started? Well, stick with me and read on.
What Went Wrong With the Living Better Electrically Programs of the 1950’s-1970’s? Why was Energy Education Stopped?
The public energy education programs went pretty well up to about the mid 1970’s. The Arab Oil Embargoes(5,6) of 1973 and 1978 created financial stress on electric utilities (and everybody else too!). I was working on the startup of the Roxboro Unit #3 a 720 MW coal plant for CP&L back then (I joined CP&L in Jan. 1973) and I remember it clearly. In 1973 the Roxboro plant expansion was for two 720 MW coal units to be completed in 1973 and the second one 1974. I was the senior startup engineer for the two units. Shortly after unit #3 began commercial operation in June 1973, the first oil embargo took place. Raising investment capital by selling stock to investors became a challenge and CP&L like many other utilities during that time had to cut back spending. Those of us that were adults in 1973 remember some electric utilities actually selling power plants to the state or other drastic measures. The period 1973-1978 was very tough on investor owned utilities.(149,150) These spending cut backs included CP&L shutting down construction on Unit #4 and then reducing operational & maintenance expenses. The first budget items to be cut (not only CP&L but most Utilities) were tree trimming near power lines, then painting and any maintenance that could be deferred. A crucial budget cut which has had long term consequences was halting the Public Energy Education programs. Yes, the “Living Better Electrically” public education programs were slashed from the budget. Not only at CP&L but pretty much industry wide. CP&L has since been absorbed by Duke Energy. This was a mistake that is easy to see from my vantage point, because I lived through it and it impacted me personally.
What is to come with the consequences of Net Zero Carbon, if we continue this dangerous path, will be in my view, worse than 1973-1978
So, what replaced the “Living Better Electrically” PR programs? Sadly, the void of public energy education was filled with biased anti-fossil fuels and anti nuclear propaganda by Environmental activists. Piling on was population growth organizations such as Margaret Sanger’s Planned Parenthood which became affiliated with the Sierra Club(151). Many of the environmental and anti population growth organizations coalesced after the first “Earth Day” in 1970. The (then) recently published books by Rachel Carson, “Silent Spring”, Paul Ehrlich’s “Population Bomb” and the Club of Rome’s, “Limits to Growth” all became popular with the Leftists and NGO’s. These, in my life experiences are the roots of the current war on carbon. More will be provided later. I gave a presentation to the American Coal Council in 2008 on the “Perceptions of Coal”(15). In this presentation I used one graphic to attempt to show the decline of energy education and the enormous rise of funding resources for environmental extremism. This is shown below:
The point of the graphic was to show how the progression of the perceptions of coal power by the public from the time line of 1950 to 2008. In the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s “Living Better Electrically” was the theme promoted by the MSM and in public schools. Also, the funding for TV, magazines and newspaper advertising was generous by such Fortune 500 companies as General Electric, Westinghouse, Allis-Chalmers, Babcock and Wilcox, Combustion Engineering and many more. One of my favorites by B&W is shown below.
Then, as the Environmental Activism started in the late 1960’s, the funding for advertising (Indoctrination) changed from those who were creating the products to live better electrically….to those who objected to the use of fossil fuels and nuclear. The Sierra Club, NRDC, EDF and many other NGO’s became more and more well funded. Today collectively they have billions of tax sheltered funds to use for public indoctrination and election campaigns of candidates that favor the path of “Woke” Climate Policy. They have used the funding to demonize conventional forms of energy and they have been very successful. However, they may not understand the harm they are causing to our country? Even successful but energy ignorant Billionaires fund the NGO’s to indoctrinate the public and influence elections(16,17). It is a war on consumers energy costs but the left uses carbon as a scare tactic. This war on consumers is described by Hayden Ludwig in the article by Capital Research Center.
Here is a recent post by the Sierra Club, in essence, bragging about how their war on coal has gone so well. Their goal is to kill all coal plants in America by 2030.
Coal plants are being retired and demolished without replacement of new reliable capacity which makes the promoters of renewable power very happy. Not only extremists that hate coal, but also some Utilities and Private sector companies that are investing in “Green Energy” as the expression goes….”Follow the Money”. Below is from a screen print of a portion of NextEra Energy’s website. I consider this un-American and an example of a “Woke” corporation.
Meanwhile, as we fast forward to 2023 the new government and main stream media Mantra is “Electrify Everything” Missing in today’s woke advertising and PR programs by the proponents of electrify everything is a basic understanding of how electricity is generated and the details of how reliable, affordable and Dispatchable generation is accomplished. This gets back to the general public’s (and government Bureaucrats) mis-understanding the differences between Primary and Secondary energy.Also, “Nameplate Capacity” and actual “Capacity Factor” of Bulk Power Generation Resources. Just for the record, I have done my best to educate the public with energy and electricity courses at USCB-OLLI and presentations to public schools, Colleges and Civic Clubs. We need more of us experienced and energy savvy engineers to do this!
Getting Back to Basics: Electricity is Secondary Energy and must be Generated from Primary Energy
When I meet intelligent and successful people who have a great general understanding of business and industry but have not worked in the energy or power generation business, they are often stunned when I explain the facts of where our electric power is generated and the fuels used to power our economy and high quality of life. They usually say in essence: “I can’t believe that there is not a planned transition from fossil fuels to renewables?” A student of one of the courses I taught at USCB-OLLI stated, “You mean electricity has to be generated from coal, gas and nuclear power to charge my Tesla?” The misconception of Primary Energy and Secondary Energy is one of the largest causes of misunderstanding by the general public. Partly because of the general public’s lack of interest in educating themselves and partly because of indoctrination by the well funded Environmental Extremist NGO’s, government, the entertainment industry (ex. Disney), Public Schools and by public Education/Indoctrination,
America Has Some of the Cleanest Air in the World
Environmental Progress in Cleaning the Air
We all want clean air and clean water. And, in 1970 some attention to cleaning discharges to the air and water of the United States was badly needed. Sulfur Oxide and Oxides of Nitrogen were causing Acid Rain, particulate emissions were unacceptable and heavy metals were a valid concern for public health. Thus, the EPA began in 1970 and did a very good job of cleaning the air and water after 1970. The great job is shown on the chart below.
The air in the U.S. is truly amongst the cleanest of all industrialized countries. The great progress in cleaning the air is a fact as shown on the EPA chart above. So, why is the EPA continuing to force more and more coal plants to shut down? In my view, it is not about clean air, it is about following the environmental extremist NGO’s policies of Degrowth, Deindustrialization, One World Government and Socialism policies of the U.N. , the WEF (World Economic Forum) and the world’s “Greens”.
Sadly, these influential people and organizations have done a very thorough job of scaring and indoctrinating over 50% of the people in America and also other Free Western World countries.
The Growth of Worldwide Environmental Extremism
In the foregoing paragraphs I have tried to show the path of public education on energy matters (Public Energy Education was Good up till 1973) and the growth of environmental extremism and indoctrination from the late 1960’s through present day. There are some green organizations that are Global and these have infiltrated the leadership of the United Nations. Some of the environmental activists have coalesced with Socialists and organizations concerned with population growth. All together, the International Green movement has become comprised of followers of stopping population growth, abortion, environmental extremists, anti-nuclear power activists and socialists. Together these organizations have gained wealth and influence over much of the free western world. Alarmingly, many of the 192 nations that are members of the U.N. are aligned with the so called “Climate Policies” of the U.N. except for China & Russia. In fact, most of the BRICS nations which comprise about 40% of the world population are aligned with UN Climate Policies which are, in my opinion, slanted toward weakening America and strengthening China. Read the PA Pundits essay on the CFACT Blog here.
The Climate Policies are Not About Environmental Concerns. They are about Control of Our Lives, So, Why is America Self Sabotaging Our Reliable Electric Power Supply?
This post is to attempt to show the coalescence of various activist groups that have been growing in influence since the 1970’s. Basically, since the 1973 Oil Embargo. Those of us that were adults then remember the disruptions to our life styles and the economic pain which was inflicted on us by having our energy supply disrupted. Friends, the 1973 and 1978 oil embargoes were a problem but the electricity shortages that America is faced with in the future will be worse unless we turn away from the destructive path of Net Zero Carbon which is focused on use of renewable wind and solar to replace fossil fuels. It is impossible to do so by 2050. Not without severe disruptions of our economy and our lives.
America Does Not Have an Energy Policy to Transition to Carbon Free Energy
The Climate Policies and the Paris Agreement have little to do with protection of the environment. However, if clean energy sources are desired, then nuclear power is the one source of carbon free energy that can significantly reduce emissions with reliable, affordable and base load capacity.
I invite you to refer to my other Blog posts and the references listed below for further reading and information that will support my conclusions.
Yours very truly,
Dick Storm, August 8, 2023
Here are References for further reading and research, More will be posted in the Appendices for the “Green Energy Crisis” series in the next week.
Video of 22 year old Belgian Climate Activist to European Union: Anuna De Wever Van Der Heyden is a 22-year-old Belgian climate activist. She delivered this speech at the Beyond Growth conference in the European Parliament on May 19th. Here is a link to a post-conference panel discussing the EU adoption of degrowth policies: https://lnkd.in/g68-PJ4d
Dick Storm presentation to the “American Coal Council” 2008, “Perceptions of Coal”
Each citizen needs about 315 million Btus of energy to sustain our freedom of travel and way of life
Introduction
Yesterday I was a guest speaker at the “Money Talks Club” gathering in Sun City. I presented my views of Net Zero Carbon and was impressed with the interest and understanding of energy and electricity generation by the group. A fine gathering of American Patriots and I was honored to be their guest. At the same time of my talk, Santee-Cooper published their final 2023 IRP which shows the planned shut down of the 1,150 MW Winyah coal plant and plans to replace the generation largely with solar panels. Based on my experience yesterday, I thought it would be timely to attempt to explain in as short a post as possible, the importance of energy to our lives and where this primary energy can be sourced. Hint, it is not from wind and solar.
I have lived the American Dream and wish the same for my grandchildren to do so. I also pray that the U.S. politicians will wakeup and understand the energy sources to keep America strong, productive and free.
As shown above, the majority of the energy we depend on each day is sourced from traditional forms of primary energy. To me, sustainable living means that we Americans can continue to live our good lives as we have been. Doing so requires that reasonable cost, abundant forms of energy are an absolute pre-requisite. Replacing the traditional forms of energy with wind and solar is simply not possible. Attempting to do so by, shutting down, “Killing the supply chain”, demolishing and abolishing reliable forms of primary energy as shown above, is self sabotaging our quality of life. It is engineering fiction to believe that wind, solar and batteries can replace the Primary Energy sources that have served us so well for my entire life-time and I have been Blessed with many good years.
The most descriptive and simplified chart to show the forms of energy we depend on and how that energy is used, is the LLNL energy flow chart. The 2021 version is shown below.
Americans have used right at 100 Quadrillion Btus of Primary energy for over 20 years. The chart from 2021 shows a total of 97.3 Quads because 2021 was after the Covid lockdowns and reduced freedom of travel and reduced industrial production as well as other factors. The fact remains that Americans still used within +/- 3% of the decades long energy consumption, about the same amount of total Primary Energy, 100 Quads.
Electricity is Secondary Energy
The understanding of Primary and Secondary Energy should be clarified. When the government or MSM promotes “Electrify Everything” they are suggesting that electricity always will be available from some unlimited and magical source to power their EV’s, trucks, cooking, HVAC, industrial production, etc. The inference is that pollution free electricity can be provided by wind and solar to replace fossil fuels by simply spending billions of taxpayer dollars in incentives and installing millions of acres of wind farms and solar panels. My point here is to remind readers that Electricity is Secondary Energy. It must be generated using Primary energy! Batteries and hydrogen are also forms of Secondary Energy.
Let’s go back to the LLNL energy flow chart above. Note that wind and solar provided less than 5% of the total Primary energy in 2021. This is after over 30 years of incentives to force renewable wind and solar onto the Grid. Most of the other 95% Primary Energy was provided by conventional forms of energy.
How Can We Electrify Everything Without Increasing Generation From Traditional Forms of Energy?
The short answer is, we can’t. I have written other posts to explain. Donn Dears and Vaclav Smil together have written over 50 books to try to explain the importance of energy and the most likely sources for the future. I highly recommend their books to help understand the Importance of Energy and the differences between Primary and Secondary Energy..
Here is a list of the most common sources of carbon-free energy. Please refer to the LLNL Energy Flow chart above and then you decide how to replace or reduce fossil fuels by substituting those that are socially acceptable today:
Summary
I wanted to keep this post short and concise. For more details on the importance of energy in our lives, I suggest referring to other posts on my Blog and Donn Dears and Vaclav Smil’s books listed below.
The most important point of this post is to attempt to explain how keeping your quality of life depends on abundant, reasonable cost and reliable Primary Energy. Electrifying transportation and nearly everything else you use and doing so with wind and solar alone will be impossible in the near term.
Since the Oil Embargoes of the 1970 and 1980’s the public has been indoctrinated by extremists. Part of the indoctrination was well meaning to force government action on cleaning the air and water of our great country. This goal, has been largely accomplished. However, the extremists have grown in influence to seek more than clean air and clean water, they have morphed into promoters of Socialism and one world government. My previous posts on my Blog have described my thoughts on the demonization of carbon and the war on coal, and how they came to be. This post was primarily written to show my attempt through a two part course on energy and electricity generation to provide an energy information course for the general public. The course was provided as part of the USCB-OLLI program and entitled, “Understanding Net Zero Carbon”. It is posted on LinkedIn. Part 1 and Part 2. Then, as I thought about the misguided indoctrination of the public, I thought it would be helpful to provide some insight as to how such absurd energy policies came to be. Therefore, at the end of this post is a summary of some of how this public indoctrination into “Electrifying Everything with Wind and Solar” evolved. It began as misguided public indoctrination. Now it is the “Green New Deal” passed into law and codified into government policy as part of the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act”. The green policy is based on the premis that, “Everything can be Electrified”. Really? The illustration below shows the traditional sources of 95% of our primary energy. A large part of the public’s misunderstanding about energy is NOT knowing the difference between Primary and Secondary Energy. Many Energy providers do not help with clearing up the public’s confusion. I will provide an example later.
Net Zero Carbon by 2050 and Sustaining Our High Quality of Living is Impossible
The short course I presented at OLLI is my attempt to explain the facts of: “Primary & “Secondary” Energy, Energy Density, Dispatchable Generation, Electricity Storage, Electricity Demand Cycles and production cost increases with increased percentages of wind and solar. The main point: If reduced carbon intensity is really sought after, then the only known and proven source of reliable 24/7 carbon-free Bulk electricity generation is to build many new nuclear plants. The current path of reaching Net-Zero carbon by 2050 using only wind and solar is impossible.
Donn Dears published the book(19), “Clean Energy Crisis” just a couple months ago. In about 100 pages Mr. Dears explains the futility and impossibility of achieving Net Zero carbon by 2050. One excerpt from chapter 8, “Impossibility of Net-Zero Carbon”, expresses the number of new nuclear power plants needed to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2050: “The total number of new nuclear plants needed to achieve net-zero carbon by 2050 is 881. This requires building thirty-one new nuclear plants, comparable in size to existing units, every year between 2022 and 2050. This in spite of the fact that the United States hasn’t been able to build one new nuclear plant over the last ten years.” Check the latest news update for Georgia Power’s Vogtle Units 3 & 4, the only major 1,100 MW+ new nuclear units under construction in the U.S. at this writing. The loss of nuclear component manufacturing facilities and obtaining a trained workforce of engineers, welders, machine tool operators, electricians and instrument technicians is a topic for another day. Suffice it to say here, The U.S. does not have the facilities and talent to build the components needed to build 31 new nuclear plants each year. Plant Vogtle is struggling to build two.
The current policies of decarbonization favor (and incentivised with tax dollars) wind and solar generation. Getting back to Mr. Dears “Clean Energy Crisis”, he has calculated that by 2050 almost a million wind turbines would need to be installed. To be exact, he calculated 995,141 wind turbines of 2.5 MW each. To achieve this number 35,540 must be installed each year. If they were 5 MW each, it would take 17,770 installations per year. The maximum actually installed in one year to date is 5,680. At this rate it will take 175 years to install the needed wind turbines. An important point I made in my course is that wind and solar are forms of “Intermittent Power Generation” and must be backed up by other forms of Dispatchable generation, such as gas turbines, coal plants or Diesel generators.
Replacement of conventional generation with solar is just as impossible. According to Mr. Dears, “It would take 3,918,996 MW of capacity. The most ever installed in one year is 21,500 MW. Therefore, it would take 182 years to complete”. Like wind power, solar power is intermittent power good for about 6 hours each sunny day. Therefore, energy storage by not yet invented batteries or other storage devices will need to be installed for backup.
Mr. Dears (and mine) Conclusions of the Net-Zero Carbon Transition:
It is impossible for the United States to achieve net-zero carbon by 2050.
CO2 is not a threat to mankind.
Energy Reality
The EIA chart of nuclear generated electricity for the state of S.C. is shown below. Over 54% of S.C. electricity was generated from four nuclear stations within the state in 2022. These plants are very reliable, robust and safe. Most are also very old. Two, Oconee and Robinson began operations in the 1970’s. I know that for a fact, because I was working for Babcock & Wilcox in Barberton, Ohio in 1966 when the Reactors and Steam Generators for Oconee were being manufactured. These outstandingly successful units may receive new operating licenses for another 30 years, but the fact remains, some day new generation will be required to replace the aging units.
I personally had believed that NuScale Nuclear’s “Small Modular Reactors” (SMR’s) would be a large part of future replacements for aging coal and nuclear plants. However, the recent cost escalations do not look very encouraging, based on Donn Dears cost analysis of NuScale’s SMR. (275)
Over 200 slides are included in my course to show the reality of all forms of Primary and Secondary Energy. Energy used by America is used for more than generating electricity. In fact, about 37% of total primary energy is used for generating electricity. The other 63% is for Industrial production, Transportation, residential and commercial, cooking, heating, lighting, entertainment and cooling.
The course includes information on all forms of energy and how it is used to power our lives. I invite you to take a look at it, if you are interested, part 1 and part 2.(2,3)
Confusing the Public
I live in Hilton Head, South Carolina and soon the Heritage Golf Tournament will take place. This is a huge event that draws tens of thousands of Golf fans to this island. The normal peak electric power demand on Hilton Head is between 150 and 250 MW’s and it is provided by Palmetto Electric Co-Op which distributes electricity generated by Santee-Cooper, a state run electric utility. Santee-Cooper has about 5,300 MW of installed capacity and most of this is coal, natural gas and nuclear generation. Santee-Cooper is interconnected with the Duke and Dominion nuclear plants as well as other generation from the Grid. Overall, over 50% of S.C. electricity has been from nuclear power. (Santee-Cooper owns 322 MW of Summer nuclear plant operated by Dominion Energy) Santee-Cooper advertizes that they have about 400 MW (Nameplate) of solar power capacity either owned or under contract. So at first glance the claim of 100% green power to power the island may seem plausible, especially if Palmetto Electric defined nuclear power (they don’t) as being “Green”. Nuclear is the largest form of carbon-free electricity generation in the world. The point not explained regarding solar and wind is that “Nameplate Capacity” is not the same as delivered Dispatchable power. The actual electricity produced in the state through the year 2022 to SC is shown above. 54% nuclear & about 5% solar.
The bill insert from Palmetto Electric Coop, the HHI electricity supplier is copied below. This infers that the island of Hilton Head is powered by wind, solar and landfill gas. If you check the website scgreenpower.com it shows that most of the green power is from the 29 MW landfill gas units that Santee-Cooper operates. Not solar and ironically, they mention nothing about the importance of carbon free nuclear generation?
The misinformation and resulting misconceptions are nationwide as shown below. The headline refers to installed “CAPACITY” not actual generation. My Part 2, OLLI course(2,3) , slides # 16-20 show the recent actual generation for the U.S. electric Grid by fuels. (about 80% conventional generation)(157)
The actual delivered wind and solar generated electricity cost when metered and billed to the consumer is typically a higher cost/kWh than electricity generated from conventional generation. This is partly because the intermittent solar or wind power needs to be backed up with natural gas, Diesel or other Dispatchable generating capacity. So, the installed cost of solar is only the cost to install solar collectors or wind turbines. In the real world, the cost to the consumer includes the cost of the installation and fuel for backup generation. Another factor regarding intermittent wind and solar is that maintenance costs tend to be very high. Especially for offshore wind turbines. The chart below is from European experiences. The case study of Hawaii Electric which has shut down their one highly successful, clean and reliable coal plant is shown on slide # 48 of part 2 of the OLLI course. Now, dependent on wind, solar and other renewables Hawaii has the highest cost electricity in the U.S.A.. (53, 223 & 224) Mostly because the backup power when the wind isn’t blowing or sun not shining must be made up by Diesel Fuel burned in Internal Combustion engines, gas turbines or oil fueled steam boilers. Diesel fuel in the middle of the Pacific ocean is the most expensive form of primary energy. Diesel fuel is also one of the highest cost forms of primary energy anywhere, second to hydrogen in $/BTU.
Weaponization of the EPA
The Biden Administration is hell-bent on killing coal power generation(29) in America. The latest EPA Rules may in fact kill over a third of the remaining U.S. Coal generation capacity. Many of the power generation facilities that have been depended on as recently as last December 2022, (even now) will likely be shut down in the next year or two. This despite the fact that electricity shortages are expected. We already have had Rolling Blackouts in 2022 due, in part to too many reliable coal and nuclear power plants being shut down without replacing them in kind. Check slide #81 of OLLI course, part 2. This shows the over 102,000 MW of coal generation shut down since 2011. This is from data in the NERC report.(4)
In addition to the concerns of solar and wind being intermittent generation, there is the concern of Grid voltage and frequency stability with increasing generation provided through inverters. (20) The “Spinning Reserve” of thousands of tons of generator rotors from conventional power plants add Grid Stability of voltage and frequency as new power demand is added. Solar and wind power provided through inverters does not provide this dynamic reserve stability.
“Roosters of the Apocalypse” How Junk Science of Global Warming Nearly Bankrupted the Western World(1)
The Heartland Institute published the short book, “Roosters of the Apocalypse” in 2012. Basically it is a story of how “in the spring of 1856, the Xhosa tribe in today’s South Africa destroyed it’s own economy. According to the book, the Xhosa killed an estimated half-million of their own cattle (which they ordinarily treated with great care and respect), ceased planting crops and destroyed their grain stores. By the end of 1857 between thirty and fifty thousand of them had had starved to death. A third of the population. The British herded survivors of the once powerful tribe into labor camps, and white settlers took much of their land.(1)
The Xhosa had acted on the prophecy of a 15 year old girl who promised that if they destroyed all they had and purified themselves of “witchcraft” (including evil inclinations and selfishness), the world before the white invaders came would be restored: The British oppressors would flee, and the Xhosa ancestors would return, bringing with them an even greater abundance of cattle and grain.”
I found a copy of this book which I had purchased in 2012 amongst some other old books. I paged through it and thought “gee whiz, this is very relevant to the absurd actions and Regulations our government is now forcing on us”. The EPA and most of the rest of the U.S. government (Nearly all government Bureaucracies) have been weaponzied.(5) An OpEd opinion writer to the “Wall Street Journal” has written at least one letter with the truthful title: “America is Self Sabotaging the Electric Grid”. Then considering the story of the young girl advising the Xhosa tribe we could say, this is much like the message of Greta Thunberg and non-energy savvy politicians. In current times we have an inexperienced and thoroughly green indoctrinated Greta Thunberg (and along with many energy ignorant politicians) addressing the World Economic Forum as if she (and they) is/are well credentialed Atmospheric Scientist(s) and Greta appears on the cover of Internationally circulated magazines and is Time Magazine’s person of the year in 2019. Greta’s message, “Stop using fossil fuels”.(270) The fossil fuels that power 80%+ of all that we depend on to achieve the high standard of living we have come to enjoy.
Are the free people of the western world as gullible as the people of the Xhosa tribe? It sure looks that way to me. The Net-Zero Carbon Path may be impossible and wrong-headed, but our government sure is hell-bent on following it no matter what the consequences.
How, Why or Who is Responsible for the Absurd Energy Policies and Demonization of Carbon?
The perpetrators of the war on carbon and all conventional fuels for that matter are numerous. In my opinion, it began with the United Nations Agenda 21 and that (later the formation of the UN-IPCC) I believe is the root cause of why and how the “Green” policies have been started in the U.S. and EU. Demonizing conventional forms of energy (carbon and nuclear) and strangling of the Free World’s Energy supplies. I started digging to try to discern how such ludicrous policies could become embraced by most of the leaders of the free western world, some who are otherwise reasonable people believed to be of above average intelligence.
The intent of the following is to show the progression of the U.N. Agenda 21 from the inception in 1992 and how it morphed into being a policy to promote “One World Government” and control over all of the citizens of the Free World and to do this through environmental regulations. Why did the UN choose the environmental route to promote socialism? Because, in my opinion, everyone wants clean water and clean air, so it was a means for the leaders of the U.N. and Socialists to appeal to the free world’s citizens, even if it meant using scare tactics(6). If it sounds like a conspiracy, well please read on. I have provided many references at the end for your further reading and research. I said the scare tactics are aimed at the citizens of the Free Western World. You would think that the Main Stream Media would notice and report that the war on carbon does not apply to China and Russia. These two countries have the most to gain as the OECD countries become weaker.
The largest influencers of U.S. energy policy has been environmental extremist organizations.(250, 251, 252, 253,254, 255)Not engineers or energy savvy organizations. Not even electric Utilities.
The Beginning of Agenda 21 1992-Rio De Janeiro -Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)
This conference produced three documents: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (an international treaty), the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (an international treaty), and U.N. Agenda 21, (not a treaty, but a “soft law” or suggestion)
President George H.W. Bush along with 178 other countries signed the agreement, along with 178 other countries. But he refused to sign the U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity because it required transfer of technology without recognition of property rights.
The treaties and the Agenda 21 (soft law) were not ratified by the U.S. Congress. However, parts of it have been incorporated into other laws passed because all members of Congress do not read all of the words that are in Bills. (7)
Nancy Pelosi in 1992 introduced a bill to follow the 1992 Rio Earth Summit to conform to U.N. Agenda 21, its local sustainable community practices, and to follow international law.
The administration of the next President, Bill Clinton initiated the “War on Carbon”. (10) Many prominent members of the Democrat Party have hated coal for a long time, and I have yet to find a reason for their angst against the treasure of energy that America is Blessed with? Clinton’s administration started with appointing environmental activist zealot Carol Browner to the EPA. Between her and some clever and devious lawyers on staff at the EPA they ramped up the Rules on “New Source Review”. This is the point that extreme policies came to my attention. At that point in my life (early 1990’s) I was working as a boiler engineer/consultant and was directly involved in upgrading and improving older coal plants to improve efficiency, reliability, fuel flexibility, reduced NOx emissions and capacity. I learned the hard way that the word “Upgrade” was a trigger word to the EPA. It triggered NSR. Even if it improved efficiency and reduced emissions. The word upgrade in a technical report we wrote or a proposal triggered NSR “New Source Review”(8,9). The concept by the EPA was to eliminate coal plants gradually by forcing an environmental review of an older plant as if it was a new plant being constructed at that time. Because the older coal plants were built before the newer Regulations, NSR was a death sentence to any coal plant faced with NSR. Here are some links to NSR lawsuits. That was the beginning of the war on coal, based on my observations, then the U.S. had a pretty good run of enjoying some of the lowest cost electricity in the world for the next two decades.
Summary and Conclusions
It will not be possible to reach net-Zero Carbon by 2050. It may be possible to help the Chinese Economy and Influence in the world to surpass America’s by restricting, regulating and taxing America’s vast energy resources. Thus, weakening America as the WSJ OpEd title stated, “America is Self Sabotaging Our Electric Grid”. It is not only the electric grid. Remember there is a difference between “Primary and Secondary” energy. Electricity currently utilizes about 37% of America’s “Primary Energy. If everything is electrified (not possible) then the Grid will need much more than the 37 Quadrillion BTUs used currently to generate our electricity. Note the LLNL chart below of total PRIMARY Energy use in the U.S.
My hope is that the American people (and our elected officials) who are not involved in energy or electricity production, will wake up and study the fundamentals of energy and electricity generation. (that was the intent of my OLLI course) I have written to many elected officials. I have had little if any interest by these officials to do anything. Why? I think it is because the environmental extremist organizations have literally Billions of dollars of funding to use in election campaigns against any politician that stands up for Common sense Energy Policies. Check Capital Research Center’s “Influence Watch” website to see some of the enormous resources of funds that the Sierra Club, Environmental Defense Fund, NRDC and others have. Besides being enormously well funded, these are Tax sheltered. Also, the 2012 book, “The New Leviathan”(158) which outlines the funds of extremist non-profit organizations in Appendix X, page 245: $9,310,833,507. That was 2012 and at that time the average annual revenues were $6,454,568. Being 501(c)3 non-profits, they have even greater funding today,(15,16,162) thanks to American Billionaires and some Dark Money. Many of the non-profit leaders have participated in a Revolving Door of high government positions with the EPA and other agencies of the U.S. government. (254)
Also, I have written on my Blog on Influencers of Energy and Environmental Policy. America has not had an energy policy since the presidency of Jimmy Carter. His National Energy Act as older folks will recall, was following Oil Embargoes of the 1970’s and 1980’s.
A couple final thoughts on “Electrify Everything”…..
Itshould be obvious that Energy Independence is a prerequisite for National Security.
Everything cannot be electrified. For example, Plastics, Steel, Cement and Fertilizer. Yes, energy and food production are inextricably linked also.(182)
The bottom line is. America does not have an Energy Policy(159) for an orderly transition to Net-Zero Carbon. My message to my fellow citizens is this: Please wake up(59) and go study the true facts on energy and electricity. If you only check two references, the two I suggest are Vaclav Smil’s book, “How the World Really Works” and take a look at the Finnish GTK presentation, entitled, “Time to Wake up”. (59)
Yours very truly,
Dick Storm, March 18, 2023
When you have some free time, kindly read or at least peruse through the additional resources listed below. Learn about the details of our energy mess and then educate your friends and neighbors to the true facts. Especially your friends that are involved in education. Thank you.
References and Factual Information for Further Reading
Roosters of the Apocalypse by Rael Jean Isaac, published by the Heartland institute, 2012
“The Climate Change Hoax Argument” by C. Paul Smith, 2021
U.N. Agenda 21 by Dr. Ileana Johnson Paugh, ISBN: 978-0615716473
The Right Stuff Climate Team Reports and Videos. Outstanding applications of Science and Common Sense by retired NASA highly credentialed experts: https://www.therightclimatestuff.com
TED Talk Nuclear Power Is Our Best Hope to Ditch Fossil Fuels | Isabelle Boemeke on the need for more nuclear power. I do not agree with her bashing fossil fuels, but her promotion of nuclearis correct and well done with class and a little humor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESAaz9v4mSU
Here is the actual Bulk Power Generation by fuel for Christmas week 2022. Note that at the peak on Christmas eve, 80% of the total electricity generation was from conventional generation using natural gas, coal and nuclear fueled generation. Sixty five percent was from natural gas and coal, this does not fit well for Net-Zero Carbon and abolishing fossil fuels. This is reality. The Clean Energy Crisis is a manufactured crisis that should not have gone this far. Donn Dears has much to offer in his new book
Donn Dears is a genuine energy expert having a long career working on design, manufacturing, maintenance and use of major equipment used in energy production. Donn has studied, worked and witnessed for himself energy production from all areas of the world including Asia and the Mideast. He understands the importance of energy to sustain a high quality of life and he understands the importance of protection of the environment. Like many of us, Donn cares about the planet and the well-being of his children and grandchildren. Clean Energy Crisis distills Donn’s career experiences plus considerable additional research to provide the reader with energy savvy. Facts that, if used can formulate a rational energy policy for the future. Every elected official must read this book and keep it for reference! Here is an outline of the contents.
Part 1 Energy Fundamentals
Chapter 1
Fossil Fuels (Overview of oil, NG, & coal. US has largest reserves in the world.)
Chapter 2
The grid ( Grid is mismanaged. Reliability is in danger. Baseload power essential.)
Chapter 3
Importance of coal (HELE plants essential for poor countries.)
Chapter 4
The promise of nuclear power ( SMRs hold promise for revival. Cost and fear stand in their way.)
Chapter 5
Demand for Materials (Mining and shortages, environmental issues & China.)
Chapter 6
Comparing BEVs and ICEs (Electricity demand, cost and safety issues.)
Chapter 7
Environmental Blackhole (NEPA’s need for reform to prevent interminable legal challenges.)
Part 2 Impossible Dreams
Chapter 8
Impossibility of Net-zero Carbon (Wind, PV solar, & nuclear: impossible to build enough capacity to meet demand.)
Chapter 9
Creating Fear to Sell Climate Change (Show that fear of sea-level rise, hurricanes, etc., is unfounded.)
Conclusion
Appendix A How the grid works
Appendix B Dangerous ESG Mandates
Appendix C Battery-Powered Bucket Trucks
Appendix D Climate Science (Happer, Wijngaarden paper)
Currently over 87% of the U.S. Primary Energy is provided by natural gas, nuclear, coal and old hydroelectric plants. It is engineering fiction to believe that wind and solar can replace these forms of affordable, reliable, dispatchable and high energy density fuels. Clean Energy Crisis explains the roots of the myths of green energy and provides a realistic path forward for U.S. Energy Policy……
Dick Storm, December 30, 2022
Believer in Freedom to use of Energy for sustainable high quality lives
Dick Storm's Thoughts on Energy, Education, Economic Prosperity & Environmental Blog 
