This post was written in June 2020 when Hawaii Electric announced they would shut down the Barber’s Point Coal Plant. I thought this would be a very good experiment of applying the “Green New Deal”. Why? Because Hawaii is an outstanding location for sunshine and wind, so wind and solar have the natural geography and climate to succeed and do well in Hawaii. Another reason this is an ideal experiment is, Hawaii is an Energy Island with no ties to the U.S. Grid. Therefore, the production costs and reliability are the result of the production capacity that has been installed (or shut down). Here is the update:
Huge Kapolei Battery Plant Replaces Coal at Hawaii Electric
That is the headline of the Canary Media in December 2023. Here is the background as reported in the American Civil Engineering Society article, by Jay Landers:
“Among U.S. states, Hawaii has some of the most ambitious mandates for shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources to generate electricity. To achieve these mandates, the state aims to rely heavily on battery energy storage systems to provide backup power when intermittent sources such as solar and wind are insufficient or unavailable. On the Hawaiian island of Oahu, a large and sophisticated battery energy storage system recently came online, marking a key point in the state’s efforts to move toward a future of 100% renewable energy.
December startup
Situated on 8 acres of industrial land, the Kapolei Energy Storage project comprises 158 Tesla Megapack 2 XL lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are about the size of a shipping container. All told, the KES project provides 185 MW of total rated power capacity, or the largest possible instantaneous discharge, and 565 MWh of energy capacity, or the maximum amount of stored energy.
The system can meet 17% of Oahu’s electricity demand for three hours at peak load or six hours at half load, Brandon Keefe, the executive chair of Plus Power — the company that developed the project — told USA Today. Plus Power “develops, owns, and operates standalone battery energy storage systems that provide capacity, energy, and ancillary services, enabling the rapid integration of renewable generation resources,” according to the company’s Jan. 11 news releaseannouncing the start of operations at its KES facility.
As a percentage of the electricity system that it serves, the KES project is larger than any other battery storage project in the world, Colton Ching, the senior vice president of planning and technology for the Hawaiian Electric Co. Inc., told USA Today. Hawaiian Electric serves 95% of Hawaii’s 1.4 million residents on the islands of Hawaii, Lanai, Maui, Molokai, and Oahu. Each of the islands has its own independent power grid. On Oahu, Hawaiian Electric serves approximately 307,000 customers.”
Back to Dick Storm Article, June 2020:
Hawaii is a model of the impact of applying carbon free electricity generation policies before storage technology catches up. “Green Policies” do not necessarily result in “Green Power” as I will close with the actual power generation in real time. As an engineer specializing in efficient and clean coal power generation for five decades, whenever a coal plant shutdown is in the news, it catches my attention. So, when I read about the plans to shut down the 180 MW, AES Barbers Point Coal Plant near Honolulu, it caught my eye.
The title of the article in the Honolulu newspaper sums it up nicely: “Our Cheapest Power Is About to Go Away……. In 2016, HECO paid AES Hawaii an average of 5 cents per kilowatt hour. During the same period, wind was about 20 cents per kilowatt hour, solar about 21 to 23 cents.”
Hawaii is a perfect laboratory to show the effect of implementing extreme green policies on electric generation. Why? Because as islands, they are not connected to the US Grid. Therefore, the policies as implemented will create a fairly swift impact on electricity prices. According to the EIA, the highest retail electricity price in the U.S.A.: Hawaii at $0.3099/kWh. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a
As the Democrats in congress push for the new Green Deal, Hawaii offers an example of the adverse impact on electricity prices. Later, when Barbers Point is shut down, reliability could also become an issue.
If you are interested in the fuel mix for generation on the island of Oahu, here is a link for the real time power generation. https://www.islandpulse.org As this is written (0700 3/24/2020), I checked and 86% of the power was Fossil Fuels and of the 14% Renewables, they include 9% from the thermal waste to energy facility, 5% wind and because it was early morning, 0% solar.
I have always advocated a “Balanced Portfolio of Generation”. A plan to include LNG, Coal, Renewables, Oil and Waste to Energy would have been wiser, in my opinion.
Summary and Conclusions
Here is the update on electric rates by the EIA, Residential rate, $0.416/kWh. Yes, Hawaii Electric remains the highest cost electricity provider in the U.S. This did not need to happen to Hawaii and there is time to stop the Climate Policy madness for the rest of the states.
Many of my knowledgeable friends have suggested that if the U.S. was to try to apply 100% Renewables, it would be a very good idea to first apply this to one electric supply system, rather than force green energy on all of the states. Well, here we have a completed experiment. Hawaii has passed the test of being the first experiment of applying the “Green New Deal”. Thank you Hawaii Electric for providing this outstanding example of applied renewables. My state of S.C. and also neighboring states are planning similar renewables plus battery storage. Your experiences are helpful.
The title is from a comment by Ross Perot, Presidential candidate in the 1992 election cycle. Perot was describing what NAFTA would mean for jobs in the U.S.A. if Bill Clinton was elected President and he proceeded with the North American Free Trade Agreement. That was 1992. Ten years later China had been admitted to the World Trade Organization and began its rapid economic growth. Here are some observations I personally made from both my home town of Albemarle, NC where the County Logo showed the three main economic staples: Textiles, Aluminum and Agriculture. Now, aluminum production is gone and textiles a very small employer compared to the thousands employed in 1990. The story which follows are my observations of history as it impacted me, 1990-2020.
History Tends to Repeat-We Hope NOT
The phrase “History Tends to Repeat” comes to mind when we are looking at the IRA codified “Green New Deal” and forced acceptance of EV’s. President Trump used the poor word choice…. “Bloodbath” when describing what Democrat policies will do to harm the auto industry. Well, a lesson from history may help explain how correct Mr. Trump’s dark vision of the future under another Biden term could be. I agree with him. Here is a lesson from history that supports Mr. Trump’s comments.
Case Study-Stanly County, NC 1990-2000
As I watch the news on China and absorb just how dependent we are on imported Chinese products, I cannot help to reminisce and look back on my past experiences during the time that we started Storm Engineering (1992, later DBA Storm Technologies). It was a good time for the electric power service engineering business to grow, but not so great for the textiles & furniture industries, which were the mainstay for NC employment up until NAFTA.
Do you remember the Quote uttered by Ross Perot in 1992. “Giant Sucking Sound” when referring to NAFTA and his prophetic forecast of massive American job losses? I do. Let me explain the photo below. It is a picture of the partial demolition of Wiscassett Mills, Mill No. 4 in Albemarle, NC. If you look closely the sign on the remaining brick wall, near the previous employee entry gate States: “Our Employees Make the Difference.” Yes, the Albemarle employees of Wiscassett Mills did make a difference, they had been reliable, loyal, hard-working and productive for nearly 100 years. Wiscassett Mills began operations about 1898. Many future military, industry and business leaders were sent to college and nationwide recognition from paychecks earned in these textile mills.
Back in 1990, we would never drive by the parking lot at 3:30 in the afternoon because of the massive traffic as 1,000’s of Wiscassett employees left work after their shift ended.
In 1994 the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed and the “Giant Sucking Sound” applied to thousands of jobs in Albemarle, Stanly County, NC.
Then in 2001 China was allowed to join the WTO (World Trade Organization) and that further increased the drain of American jobs.
Why would I have these old pictures? Well, it was a sad time for NC Textiles in 1996. But for me personally and Storm Technologies it was a time of business growth. Needing a larger office as our company grew, our friend from Sunday School, Mr. El Wilson suggested we take a look at this property. Jerry Barrier, our accountant and ourselves stretched all available credit to purchase the Main Building of Wiscassett Mills. A stately, well-built 7,000 square foot brick building constructed in the late 19th Century and expanded over the years. If we did not purchase it, it too would have been razed. Here below is a photo of the building which proudly remains as headquarters for Storm Technologies. The loss of Wiscassett Mills was huge for Albemarle as Textiles were the number one employer of citizens. The total population of Stanly County was about 60,000. (in the 1990’s) Population of Albemarle about 16,000. Total Industrial jobs in Stanly County about 1970 was over 9,000. Most of these were textile workers and about 750 employed at the ALCOA Aluminum Smelting Plant in nearby Badin.
Storm Technologies Headquarters about 1998. The original Wiscassett Mills Executive and Administration Building.
The loss of Textile, Aluminum & Furniture jobs to the rest of the world after NAFTA was severe. It was hoped that “High Tech” jobs would replace these. Well, after NAFTA came China’s entry into the WTO in 2001 and the rest is history. More on China’s rise later.
I am proud to say that Storm Technologies, Inc. continues business today under the leadership of my son Danny Storm. Over the years the company has earned awards as a leading business in Stanly County and the state. We are proud of these accomplishments but ever mindful that the building, which is the headquarters for Storm Technologies, with less than 50 employees was once the administrative building to manage thousands of textile workers.
I am now retired but have fond memories of working through the struggles of building the business. The good and the bad. Now, 32 years later I have time to reflect on my personal good experiences which took place 1992-2012 as our company grew. Danny and his management team have done outstanding work and progress since I retired. However, not without their own challenges today with the war on coal, increased Regulations and anti-business policies.
China Joins WTO
During this same period of NAFTA and China joining the WTO, the experiences for many American workers has not been as positive. Especially for textiles, furniture, steel and aluminum production.
Let’s take a look at China trade for 2018 and see what China exports to the U.S.A. Today it is not only towels and pillowcases.
A reminder, Cannon Mills, which was the parent company of Wiscassett Mills, once manufactured most of the world’s towels, sheets and pillow cases. A retired executive from Cannon Mills told me, “at the peak production in the 1970’s Cannon Mills produced over 60% of the world’s towels, sheets and pillow cases”
Then came NAFTA and China’s membership in the WTO.
The chart below was published by Market watch in June 2019.
The highs (few) and lows (many) of U.S. trading with China
When China entered the WTO in 2001, they offered textiles, furniture and many low technology products. As they acquired the Intellectual Property of western nations that trusted China with long established trade secrets, China used these to produce world quality products. Most of them high tech. Remember the concerns raised by President Trump about Huawei providing 5G Telecommunications gear to America and European Nations? This is some of the highest technology equipment in the world. The threat of China passing America not only in economic growth but also in technological advancements is real. Mr. Trump, like Ross Perot in 1992, had a sense of realizing the consequences of wrong and unfair U.S. Trade Policies.
When I was a College student one instructor advised me. “Listen to experts and keep your mouth shut, then you will know what you know, plus what the other fellow knows” That seems to be the path of China. Except, I sincerely believe that the CCP was and remains dishonest and deceitful along the way to acquiring all that we know how to do. The Chinese Communist Party is no longer a Developing Nation. They have come a long way since entering the WTO. This is my personal take on China’s progress in business and industry 1992-2024.
It has now become noticed by the mainstream news that much of the U.S. will suffer Blackouts and electricity shortages as a result of insufficient reliable, dispatchable, affordable generation being built to replace the coal plants that are currently out of favor by government Regulations and climate policy. I have been predicting this and preaching for common sense energy policies for years. Now, even the MSM has acknowledged this unfortunate truth. There is insufficient new electricity generation 24/7 capacity to replace the reliable, affordable and Dispatchable coal plants that have been shut down and many demolished. No one likes an “I Told You So”, but, I did start warning folks with paid energy advertisements in the newspaper, published presentations and energy fact minutes (my friend Matt Smith and me called them EFM’s) on the local radio station WSPC. This was between the years 2008-2015 when then President Obama escalated the “War on Carbon”. It was Obama that mandated Electric vehicles during his second term in office. Then codified by the Pelosi led, Democrat controlled House to force the “Green New Deal” on us, as the so called, Inflation Reduction Act”. Now we are on a dangerous path of Net-Zero Carbon. Yes, decarbonizing our energy industries will cause Blackouts and worse if not reversed.
Here are my thoughts on the ranking, in my opinion, of some of the threats to America’s Lifeblood of electricity from the “Largest Machine Ever Built”, the U.S. Electric Grid. Credit the Smithsonian Institute for coining the name, “Largest Machine Ever Built”. (1) It took over a 100 years to build and the Green’s want to destroy it in a decade or less. So, who are these anti-American organizations?
Threats to Grid Reliability
The top 11 are ranked in my opinion, with the greatest risks first. Most are policy actions of “Self-Sabotage”.
Government Agency Climate Policies, EPA at the top, SEC, BLM, DOD, DOJ and all of government is wrongly applying “Climate First” policies rather than the Best policies for America and younger Americans to experience the “American Dream” as my generation did
Creation of RTO’s that absolved most utilities from planning for future electric generation growth
Environmental Extremist/Activists that use enormous wealth against the Best interests of the U.S.A.
Wealthy Business people who fund NGO’s to Decarbonize the western world
The United Nations IPCC, Agenda 21, Agenda 30 and other so called “Climate Policies”
The World Economic Forum and the members who under the guise of saving the planet are forcing policies of De-Growth, De-Industrialization and Energy Poverty on all of the people of the western world, but not the BRICS, and other countries aligned with Russia and China
“Woke” or “Politically Correct” companies including electric Utilities and Co-Operatives that espouse solar and wind power as being capable of replacing coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy
Public Education, K-12 and Universities that promote climate scare tactics to sway public opinion toward accepting higher energy costs and reduced reliability of energy and electricity
World Bank, IMF, Large Banking and Investment companies that determine which infrastructure projects to finance
Foreign adversary to sabotage transformers or controls of the Grid. Due to the reporting of China influence of embedding chips or other devices into inverters and possibly large transformers, this needs to be included. (32-44)
Physical Damage Vulnerability
Extreme weather has created rare but occasional Blackouts, such as Texas in Feb. 2021. That Blackout and winter storm killed over 240 people.
Then there is another concern, I have thought about for years. That is, criminal and terrorist acts on our Grid and quite honestly, I did not want to write about it because I was concerned that it would give ideas to criminal minded individuals or groups to use for nefarious purposes. But then in checking for references on Grid vulnerability, I easily found over a dozen references including the widely watched CBS-60 Minutes TV show done in February 2023, Technical Society organizations and Congressional Research Service reports for Congress. So, what I am about to say should be no surprise to anyone in the industry. As for protecting America, we have a massive government agency with 260,000 employees in Homeland Security. Certainly, they are aware and are engaged in protecting the Grid. At least, that is what they are supposed to be doing as their name implies?
What Could Happen?
The open border of the U.S. is a concern for all of us. Maybe not a concern for President Biden or the Political Science trained Democrats in Congress, but all of the rest of us are concerned. Let me paraphrase ex FERC Commissioner John Wellinghoff, in his statement on the Feb. 2023, 60 Minutes program. Wellinghoff was asked, “How many substations would need to be damaged to create a U.S. wide Blackout” His answer, less than 20. Take a look at the 60 Minutes video here. The “60 Minutes” nationally distributed TV program is not the only wake up call. There are six reports below in the references for confirmation of the risk. Including a IEEE report which states 9 major substations could create a nationwide Blackout.(5)
Isaac Orr shared his outstanding presentation to Dairyland Power. It is here. His conclusion is similar to mine and his slides on Substack are worth reviewing: (29)The EPA either does not know what they are doing or they are intentionally destroying the largest machine ever built by man, the American Electric Grid.
Back to Current Events and News
It has been widely documented that the open border has allowed many “Military Age Men” from 170 nations to enter the U.S. My concern for this article is, what if say a task force of 100 military and energy infrastructure trained individuals are in fact in a sleeper cell within our country? Waiting for the command to act. Let’s suppose that the 100 men disperse across the country and position themselves to coordinate attacks on crucial sub stations and transmission lines. Yes, it is unthinkable. So was 911.
Conclusion
America’s electric grid is vulnerable and at risk from not only wrongly imposed regulations for forcing renewable energy on us, but also from foreign actors that wish to harm our country. It is not just my warning. Kindly read the references and view the videos listed below. It is my belief that the 2020 election was heavily influenced by Covid and perhaps not by a lab accident half way around the planet. This is an election year and a very small group of trained individuals could create loss of critical electricity for nefarious reasons. The individuals could be surrogates for a nation state, a religious movement or a military act. I feel that the RTO’s and increasing interconnectivity of Utilities is playing into the hands of our enemies to make the Grid more vulnerable, not less.
Compounding the risk is the move towards more dependence on “Just in Time” pipeline supplied natural gas. This exacerbates the risk of Blackouts because so much backup power is provided by pipeline provided primary energy. See reference #4 below.
If I had two wishes, One would be that all of our Electric Utilities were once again independent, Regional Utilities in the model of Carolina Power & Light for eastern NC. Duke Power for western NC, SCE&G for portions of SC, Santee-Cooper for the east coast of SC, etc. The Regional Utility Model is more secure than connecting the Grid as many proponents of green energy wish to do, in my opinion.
My second wish would be that all of our electric generation was from a Balanced Portfolio of varied fuel supplies, with at least 75% coal and nuclear to provide the base load. Nuclear and Coal can store months or years of fuel on site. That is good for Grid Resilience, reliability, affordability and improved national security. That is how I see it.
Yours very truly,
Dick Storm, March 15, 2024, updated May 19, 2025
References and materials for further research to support my conclusions
“Clean Energy Crisis”, Book by Donn Dears, 2023. An excellently written, short and concise review of the energy crisis we are facing. Available on Amazon: https://ddears.com/2023/01/03/clean-energy-crisis/
Good Substack read on a take off of Obama’s quote, “Elections Have Consequences” modified by Pandreco to “Undermining (Grid Security)Electrons Have Consequences”. My note: The consequences are not helpful for a strong energy infrastructure : https://pandreco.substack.com/p/undermining-electrons-have-consequences
Ken Haapala is President of the organization, “Science and Environmental Policy Project. Ken has been publishing TWTW (The Week That Was) Newsletter since the 1990’s. His informative Newsletters can be found here. This week, Mr. Haapala’s quote of the week is apropos for the importance of energy in our lives.
“The cavemen had the same natural resources at their disposal as we have today, and the difference between their standard of living and ours is a difference between the knowledge they could bring to bear on those resources and the knowledge used today…..”
Thomas Sowell
I would continue from Sowell’s quote….
To produce sufficient energy that drives our economy, industry and nearly every comfort and convenience that we have come to enjoy since muscle power provided most of the energy for farming and transportation only 125 years ago….
The path to Net-Zero carbon is a path to Socialism, decarbonizing electricity and transportation energy will not improve human health or improve air quality. The so-called transition to reduced carbon dioxide production (aka Net-Zero or IRA) is disconnected from reality and there is no plan to keep an adequate energy supply for sustaining our current life styles, industrial production, freedom of travel and economic prosperity. The current government policies are Anti-American. The Institute for Energy Research has chronicled 200 actions by the Biden Administration which make it harder to produce oil and gas. Link here. Expansion of the government Regulations that are a large part of the “War on Coal” are detailed by Paul Driessen and PA Pundits, “Congress And The Courts Enable Climate And Energy Fantasies And Government Expansion” Here. Coal power restrictions and the likely electricity Blackouts in the future is chronicled by America’s Power, Here. Also, the author’s presentation to the ENERUM Energy Forum, stating “There is NO Energy Policy, only a policy of Decarbonization”, August 2022, Here. More recently, my takeaways of my PowerGen Panel discussion, here.
I used to think the Democrats and Swamp Bureaucrats in government were trained in, “Political Science”, and not real technical engineering science. At one time I thought they just did not understand the technical details of energy and electricity generation and were naive. However, the fact is, there are enough smart, technically trained engineers in the Bureaucracy (14,000 in the DOE & NETL plus 95,000 contractors and 18,000 in the EPA. with an almost $10 Billion Budget) Biden has the engineering talent resources to have become informed if he chose too. The Department of Energy, NETL, EPA, DOD all employ thousands of engineers. Now after observing the energy and electricity policies of the last three years of the Biden Administration I am of the strong opinion that the weakening of America through the “CCP Trojan Horse” Climate Policies…are in fact, all intentional. Many references are provided to support this conclusion in this and previous articles I have written. Links to these articles are provided below.
Eliminating or attempting to eliminate hydrocarbons from use in America is a movement toward de-growth, de-industrialization, food shortages, more inflation and restrictions on our freedoms. Simply stated: Over Regulated & Restrictive Big Government Socialism.
Net-Zero carbon is a path of the politicians to wield even more control over our lives. It is a political movement by unelected NGO’s to influence government officials. The “Swamp Bureaucrats” are out of touch with Reality and the current “Green New Deal” Climate Policies, are codified as the (mis-named) “Inflation Reduction Act“. This sadly, is the result of years of very well organized scare tactics and court actions intended to instill fear and used effectively to demonize the fuels that our society depends on. The war on carbon is not based on science. Net-Zero Carbon is a path to weaken the people of the free western world. This began with the Presidency of Bill Clinton and the ramping up of New Source Review lawsuits and then was further expanded by the revolving door of employment of radical extremists into high government positions during the Obama Administration. An informative report by the 114th Congress is here. My take on the beginning of the War on Carbon is here. My thoughts on the major U.S. Energy policy influencers, here.
Depending on 100% carbon free fuels (and continuing our high quality of life) by 2050 is delusional and impossible!
I have written much on the origins of the war on carbon and the destructive path of prematurely shutting down coal plants for reliable electricity generation. An Energy Forum presentation and three previous articles are here , here and here. In this article I will attempt to consolidate previous thoughts into one to discuss reality. Also a realistic approach to reducing carbon emissions while keeping America’s productive capacity and economy energized.
Energy is the Economy & Energy is the Sustainer of Our High Quality of Life.
We must be realistic about how fast we can reduce carbon emissions without destroying America as we know and love it. Energy powers life as we have come to enjoy it. Each American uses between 830,000 to 1,000,000 BTUs of energy each day. The energy we need and depend on each day is described in numerous articles, three of these previous articles are here, here and here.This quantity and reliability of energy from conventional sources cannot be replaced with wind and solar. Period. See my previous article on the enormity of the energy we depend on, Here. We have come to depend on this quantity of affordable, reliable energy of which 87% is sourced from gasoline, natural gas, Diesel, coal, Jet fuel and nuclear. The current government path is attempting to abolish fossil fuels which provide over 79% of our energy. The figure above showing 89%+ conventional fuels including nuclear and old hydroelectric plants. I consider these (Nuclear, Gas, Coal, Petroleum and Old Hydroelectric plants) all conventional forms of energy. America will continue to require a minimum of 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy per year and grow to more than 100 Quads with population growth and more application of technology, such as Data Centers and AI. Read more about the increase in electricity growth, here, here and here. These new Data Centers use nearly as much power as aluminum smelting operations. Some over 250 MW each. It will take much more electricity generation to electrify vehicles and power data centers. Data centers today use about 4% of total electricity use. The future of “Electrifying Everything” suggests an increase in electricity use and instantaneous demand, not a decrease.
Reliable Primary Energy and Electricity = Continued and Sustainable High Quality of Life
Energy and affordable/reliable electricity generation is a pre-requisite to sustain our current quality of life and freedom. The sources for this energy beyond 2050, in my opinion, will be from conventional forms of energy: Natural Gas, Nuclear, Coal, Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel and yes, including Coal
Furthermore, Crude oil, natural gas and coal provide the feedstock for production of thousands of products, and including food production. Energy is required for our high quality of life and including all basic essentials. Including Food, Steel, Cement, Plastics, Water Purification, Sewage Treatment and Fertilizer. When energy costs rise, they do in fact contribute to inflation. Why? Because energy is used for everything! From fertilizer for food production to the processing and transportation of ice cream. Primary metals, such as aluminum, copper & steel use enormous quantities of primary energy to produce. Much of that production has been shut down in the U.S. and moved to Asia.
Take aluminum as an example. This is from an article in the WSJ and a presentation I made in 2016. This shows how China climbed from nearly zero aluminum production in the year 2000 to becoming the major producer of over 50% of the world’s aluminum production by 2016. This rise of China’s economy is fueled by energy use. A reminder, it takes about 5 kWh’s of electricity to produce one pound of aluminum. (about 45,000 BTU’s to smelt one pound) This is for just smelting, and it does not include refining of Bauxite to Alumina, transportation or manufacturing energy to produce final products. China uses mostly coal fuel for their aluminum production. The rise of China’s energy and economy is covered by previous articles here and here.
From Dick Storm presentation to the Delaware County Bar Association, July 2016
The IEA report on energy costs impacting food report is here. The production cost component of most grains is about 50% energy related. The small red circles represent the energy cost component of production. Therefore, it is a fact that rising energy costs contribute to inflation.
From IEA Report, How Energy Crisis is Exacerbating the Food Crisis
A Realistic Approach to Electricity Generation with Reduced Carbon Dioxide Emissions
America has led the world in the reduction of the rate of carbon dioxide emissions since 2007. How? Largely due to the substitution of electric power generation using natural gas fuel for power generation. That is, replacing power generation once accomplished with coal fuel, with natural gas powered generation. Natural gas power generation in a modern combined cycle gas turbine plant produces about 50% of the CO2 emissions as produced by coal power generation. The U.S. total carbon dioxide emissions are shown on the chart below. CO2 emissions dropped from a high of about 6,000 million metric tons to about 4,600 million metric tons in 2020. The sharp drop 2019-2020 was due to Covid and shrinking economic activity. However, the reduction in U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide is almost 25%. As the economy recovers CO2 is expected to increase to about 5,000 million metric tons in 2023. This is still a 16 % reduction from 2007. The most effective path to further reductions in total carbon dioxide emissions is to use more nuclear power for power generation. However, due to supply-chain limits and restrictive Federal NRC Regulations, sufficient capacity of new nuclear plants to replace the over 102,000 MW of coal plants shut down since 2012 will take decades. See previous articles here and here.
Just to put the U.S. CO2 Emissions in perspective. Here is a chart from Our World in Data which shows the CO2 emissions of various countries. The U.S. produces about 16% of the world’s CO2 emissions. China produces about 26%. The comparisons of China and U.S. energy and manufacturing was discussed in a previous article.
Carbon dioxide emissions are primarily a matter of hydrocarbon chemistry. Both coal and gas fuels contain carbon and when combusted the products of combustion form CO2 . The creation of CO2 from combustion is impossible to change. Fuels that have fewer carbon atoms, such as methane, create less CO2 than coal. Coal fuel derives most of it’s energy from the combustion of the carbon molecules. Methane derives most of it’s energy from the combustion of the hydrogen molecules. The figure below shows the electric power production 2004 and 2019. The greater use of natural gas is due to the Hydraulic Fracturing Revolution which greatly increased U.S. natural gas production with a consequent reduction is natural gas pricing. Harold Hamm’s book, “Gamechanger” chronicles the Shale Gas Revolution. The increased supply of low cost natural gas kept electricity prices stable until current times.
The electric power generation from natural gas in 2024 is expected to be over 50%. Is This Good?
Why? Because of increased solar and wind generation facilities need to be backed up with reliable, dispatchable Bulk Power generation capacity. Also, reliable coal plants are being prematurely retired and demolished, which I discussed in a previous article here. Therefore natural gas generation has grown rapidly from both the shutdowns of coal plants and the increased CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) plants built to provide power when the wind is not blowing and sun not shining.
Greater dependence on natural gas is good for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, as the U.S. has demonstrated since 2007. See chart below.
However, Dependence on “Just in Time” pipeline supplied natural gas is risky for a reliable electricity supply. Why is it risky? Because if pipelines are compromised whether by extreme weather, mechanical failure, government regulations, or by criminal sabotage, the fuel supply can be interrupted. With no fuel on site storage, a major highly efficient and state of the art, 600 MW CCGT power plant will reach zero power output in minutes when pipeline gas stops. However, Coal and nuclear plants can store sufficient primary energy for months and in the case of nuclear, years of generation. A Balanced generation portfolio of at least 75% Dispatchable nuclear and coal plants is preferred, in my experience.
Slide from Dick Storm USCB-OLLI Course, Energy and Electricity Generation 2021
One of the main reasons the total CO2 emissions of the U.S. dropped since 2007 is largely due to the increased use of natural gas to replace coal for power generation. Good, as long as a reliable gas supply is maintained. As mentioned above, and worth repeating, the U.S. will likely reach 50% + dependency on natural gas fueled power plants for fuel in 2024. I see this as an unbalanced and risky generation portfolio. But, then most of my career was as a coal power generation engineer.
Air Quality has Improved since 1970
The overall trend of improving air quality is shown on the chart from the EPA below. Yes, in 1970, the EPA was needed to clean our air. The six major pollutants of CO, Sulfur, Lead, Ozone, Particulates and Nitrogen Oxides have been drastically reduced to healthy levels, even as population, GDP and vehicle miles driven have increased.
Let’s get back to the fundamental chemistry of natural gas and why natural gas produces less carbon dioxide than coal for the same unit of power generation. Gas power generation produces about half the CO2 of a similar unit of electricity generation from coal. Why? Primarily because natural gas is over 95% methane. The chemical symbol of Methane is CH4 . That is four molecules of hydrogen and one molecule of carbon. This compared to coal which, depending on the coal rank, and on an ash and moisture free basis, derives about 95% of its heating value from carbon. This is the main reason of why and how America has led the world in carbon dioxide reductions since 2012. Substituting coal power generation with natural gas can provide the same primary energy as coal with about 50% of the carbon dioxide emissions, due mostly to the differences of carbon intensity of methane and coal. Another factor in power generation is, that “Combined Cycle Gas Turbine” (CCGT) plants are much more efficient than Rankine Cycle coal fueled steam plants. Modern gas fueled CCGT plants can achieve up to about 65% efficiency, Ultra-supercritical Steam plants up to about 42% efficiency.
Here are examples of coal and methane molecules to illustrate the different carbon intensity of coal and natural gas.
A molecule of methane gas has one central atom of carbon with a molecular weight of 12 surrounded by four atoms of hydrogen, each with a molecular weight of 1.
A coal molecule, by comparison is mostly carbon and derives most of it’s heating value (primary energy) from carbon.
Fundamentals of Energy and Work
America uses right at 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary energy. Previous article here. Each BTU (British Thermal Unit) when converted to work at 100% efficiency is equivalent to 778 Foot Pounds of work and when 3,412.6 BTU’s are converted to electricity at 100% efficiency can generate 1 kWh. Human muscle power/energy is equivalent to about 100 watts. Think about using a hand pushed lawnmower, (if you remember those), and compare to cutting your lawn with a 2 Hp gasoline powered lawnmower with less than a gallon of gas in the tank. More on replacing muscle power, energy and economic prosperity are written on previous articles, here, here,here and here.
Energy and Economic Prosperity
Designing and manufacturing products provides jobs. Manufacturing provides funding for R&D to create new and better products. It is best for America if manufacturing was mostly within our borders. I have written on this before and the quote below is copied from substack, Doomberg(3)
Energy is not an input into the economy, IT IS THE ECONOMY. Humanity organizes its economic activities to ensure a steady growth in the extraction and exploitation of primary energy because energy is life, standards of living are defined by how much energy is available to be exploited, and all humans everywhere are perpetually seeking a higher standard of living.
Primary energy is what powers a modern economy and America needs about 100 Quadrillion BTUs of energy each year. This was described in the series parts 1-4.(50, 51, 52, 53)
So, Where Does the 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary Energy Come From?
Here are the sources of Primary Energy for the U.S. in 2022.
As can be seen conventional fuels of natural gas, petroleum, nuclear and coal provide 87% of the energy we need (more than 89% if old hydroelectric plants are included). Eliminating fossil fuels (79%) will create great harm to our economy. Those of us that were adults in the 1970’s remember the economic pain and disruption of our lives due to the Oil Embargoes. Temporary loss of industrial capacity, jobs, and restrictions on travel and our way of life. The Oil Embargoes of 1973-1980 were temporary and America solved the energy shortages! Now, Forcing Net-Zero Carbon by current government Regulations will be irreversible and permanent. Our politicians could take a look at the impact on the German economy from their attempt to replace coal and nuclear with wind and solar. It has not worked and is well documented. Here are two references, Here and here.
Loss of Supply-Chains are Nearly Irreversible
Once Net-Zero Carbon is imposed, the Domestic supply chains will be lost. Therefore, without a rational transition Net Zero Carbon policies, aka “Inflation Reduction Act or Green New Deal”, will literally plunge us into darkness and despair if we do not wake up to the need to do much more with natural gas, coal and nuclear power to generate the electricity. We must have reliable, affordable and Dispatchable energy and electricity to sustain our lives. More energy to grow and prosper. I wrote and article covering the path of the U.S. nuclear power industry here. Long story short, we mortally wounded the nuclear steam system supply-chain with over-regulations by the NRC and other government decrees.
Summary and Conclusions
Reduction of Federal Regulations should be top priority. The total government Swamp Bureaucracy has been engaged to restrict conventional forms of energy. This must stop.
A rational path forward is to roll back EPA Rules to those in effect in 2012. It is my strong opinion and observation that any rules applied after 2012, especially those overly restrictive on coal plant emissions are simply weaponization of government against coal. Similar restrictive rules by other government agencies have been applied toward the production, refining and transport by pipeline of oil and gas. The Congressional report here, explains why I picked 2012 as a Roll back year..
Replacing much (but not all) of the 100 Quadrillion BTUs of needed energy in America could be done with carbon free nuclear electrification and even including hydrogen production from nuclear generated electric power. However, with current regulations and supply chain limitations, expanding nuclear beyond the current fleet will take decades. In my view nuclear power is a very good approach. As it was in 1954 when the head of the Atomic Energy Commission proclaimed, “Electricity from nuclear will be too cheap to meter”. It took about 30 years to reach 20% of U.S. electricity generation from nuclear. Since then, enormous regulatory roadblocks have been enacted into law that make a repeat 30 year success story very unlikely. So, what do I recommend? I recommend rolling back EPA rules to those in effect in 2012 and building new coal and nuclear plants. Coal and nuclear generation is the foundation of electricity reliability even today when there is extreme weather, especially extremely cold winter periods. So, why not build some more proven coal and nuclear plants to strengthen our energy and electricity reliability and security with a “Balanced Portfolio” of generation?
In closing, let me quote chapter 8 of Donn Dears book, “Clean Energy Crisis“. This is what Mr. Dears calculated that it would take to replace fossil fuels with carbon free power. Build these:
881 new nuclear power plants similar in size to one of Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle Units
BTW it took over ten years to just build two 1,100 MW units at Vogtle
995,141 new 2.5 MW wind turbines
3,919,006 MW of PV of solar power
Read Mr. Dears book. It is only 128 pages including the index, Dears Bio and references. Please also read the other references below. Most importantly, become an energy savvy voter in November. America needs a realistic path forward for energy and electricity production. Thank you for reading this.
“Clean Energy Crisis”, Book by Donn Dears, 2023. An excellently written, short and concise review of the energy crisis we are facing. Available on Amazon: https://ddears.com/2023/01/03/clean-energy-crisis/
Dick Storm's Thoughts on Energy, Education, Economic Prosperity & Environmental Blog 