Monthly Archives: October 2023

Basic Energy Knowledge, Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Energy and Electricity Fundamentals, Fossil Fuels are Important, Keeping America Great, Nuclear, Nuclear Power Generation

The Importance of Fuel Diversity to Power Our Economy and Our Lives, Part 1

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Much has been written on the importance of energy to power a nation’s economy and to continue to provide a high quality Human Development Index. The purpose of this post is to focus on the importance of Fuel Diversity for electricity generation. There is a proven concept for energy storage for electricity generation. It is coal fueled power plants with a 30-60 day supply of coal in a pile, on site. This is proven to be reliable, low cost and safe.

Energy powers everything we do!

Think about this. You are probably reading this on a computer screen. Have a warm cup of coffee nearby and are sitting in an air conditioned office or home. Your car is sitting outside and at your urging is ready to provide transportation. You get the point. Remember the last hurricane or severe winter storm that killed power for a day or so? Loss of energy sources or electricity is debilitating. Think about the 1970’s Oil Embargoes. If you are too young to remember 1973-1979 check these references, here and here.

Primary Energy Sources-Back to Basics

Lets discuss energy and electricity and the sources and quantity of everyday energy that we depend on.

America has used right at 100 Quadrillion Btus of PRIMARY energy per annum since about the year 2000.

The energy we use is compiled by various government agencies in BTUs equivalent (British Thermal Units). A BTU is enough heat to raise one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit, just as a reminder of High School Physics. Each BTU converted to work is equivalent (at 100% efficiency) to 778 Foot Pounds. Therefore, the energy production and consumption is converted to BTUs so that all forms of energy can be reported on a like basis. I wrote an article on the basics of energy for Middle School students here if you are interested, also on “Demystifying Energy and Electricity” here.

This article is about fuel diversity. Just as I explained above regarding the reporting of energy in BTUs to have a common measurement of energy quantities, in some cases one fuel can be substituted for another, especially in electric power generation. Thermal Power Generation Plants that generate Bulk Power can be provided with natural gas, coal, oil, Biomass or nuclear energy to produce steam to drive a steam turbine generator. The fuel selected is done for reasons of economic or fuel availability. Hawaii is truly an Energy Island and thus cannot interconnect with the lower 48 states. Fuels for Thermal Power Generation needs to be imported. In fact, I wrote on Hawaii’s electricity generation in 2020, here.

The proportions of each form of energy used and depended on to power our lives has changed as technologies for extraction and production have improved. For example for electric power generation coal fuel was consumed for about 50% of power generation in year 2000. Then due to the Shale Revolution of Hydraulic Fracturing and Directional Drilling, natural gas became less expensive than coal on a $/million BTU basis. See my review of Harold Hamm’s book, Game Changer which covers the Shale Gas Revolution, here. Thus, gas was substituted for coal generation by many utilities that could get it. Alaska and Hawaii of course do not have pipelines to connect, but of many utilities in the lower 48 states, gas was an economical and clean fuel of choice.

Coal fuel in the U.S. today provides about 23 % of the primary energy to produce Bulk Electric Power over the year. The substitution of coal fuel as primary energy is natural gas which has become more economical as a result of the Shale gas revolution which took off about 2012. Electricity is SECONDARY Energy and must be produced from Primary energy. Electricity is important and in 2022 electricity consumed about a third (37.7% to be exact) of the total PRIMARY energy used in the U.S. The best factual illustration that I am aware, of the sources and consumption of primary energy is the LLNL Energy Flow Diagram, shown below. This is one of my favorite graphics and it is prepared each year by the Department of Energy. The chart above shows the total primary energy used since 1950 and thus supports my conclusion that America needs right at 100 Quads per year to sustain our quality of life, economy and industrial production.

Lawrence Livermore Laboratory Sankey Diagram of U.S. Energy Flows, 2022

The total Primary Energy used by the U.S. from coal fuel in 2022 was about 10% of the total. (9.91% from data above). That doesn’t seem like much does it? Remember, this is primary energy I am talking about. So, although coal only provided about 10% of our total primary energy it was in fact, Dispatchable, affordable and it provided electricity generation when solar and wind were not available. The chart below is of MISO generation by fuel this past summer. This example shows 40% of total power generation in MISO from coal at this moment in time.

The topic of this article is “The Importance of Fuel Diversity”. The example above of summer Bulk Power Generation depending on coal fueled power generation units is just one of many reasons America should keep our Fuel Diversity. Another example of the importance of coal plants and the consequences of shutting them down is discussed in my blog post discussing the February 2021 Texas Blackout that killed over 200 people. Here.

My previous post on De-Mystifying Energy attempted to explain this, here. The difference between Primary and Secondary Energy is important. If everything is Electrified as many suggest we should do, has anyone really thought through where the primary energy to do so is to be sourced? In my opinion, it has not. Wind and solar cannot replace the primary energy currently required. The four charts shown up to here should make that clear.

Government policy and many people in the general public believe that renewables can replace fossil fuels and nuclear. The harsh reality is that after decades of government subsidies & tax credits wind and solar provide less than 6% of our total PRIMARY energy. Here below is the LLNL Energy Flow Diagram from 2021 with the 4.96% wind and solar contribution circled.

Public demonization of all conventional fuels including nuclear, coal, gas, gasoline, Diesel are unAmerican and foolish. Wind and solar only provide single digits of the total Primary energy needed to power our lives and it will be impossible to ramp wind & solar renewables up to 100% of our energy needs. The charts above are from the government statistics as published on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sankey Diagram website, an excellent resource.

Back to Fuel Diversity

Each American citizen, on average is accustomed to using about 315 million Btus of energy per year. I have written separate articles on American energy use here and here. My first point is that we all need on average of about 863,000 to 1 million Btus each day in Total Primary Energy. This number is provided by dividing 330 million citizens into 100 Quadrillion Btus and then dividing that by 365 days/year = 863,000 BTUs per day/citizen of PRIMARY Energy. This is for all uses which (see LLNL chart above) including: Electricity generation, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial and Residential uses. The second important point is that providing this energy each day may be from various forms of energy. Depending on which is more efficient or more economical. Let’s take an example of electric generation on July 21, 2023 in the Midwest at about 2:00 PM in the afternoon (example above). It was more economical to use coal fuel for 40% of the electricity generation at that hour. It may have been, I do not know for sure, that only coal generation could deliver the electricity Demand at that moment. The fact is, coal delivered 40% of the electricity at that moment.

Let’s take another example from last winter. This example below is from Christmas week, 2022.

Fuel Diversity with more coal plants ready to operate and properly maintained could have avoided the Blackouts of Christmas week, 2022. Duke Energy has shut down many coal plants as part of their Net-Zero Carbon plan. So have many other Utilities, both Public and Investor Owned. I presented my views on this at the ENERUM (Columbus Ohio Energy Forum) in August 2022. My presentation is Here. Also, my recent article on the self sabotaging of our energy and electricity generation Grid is here.

Even well respected utilities that were once known for their outstanding leadership and engineering excellence are planning to shut more of their coal plants down in the near future. This works against Fuel Diversity! Here below is a screen print excerpt of the Duke Energy IRP for 2023:

These planned shut downs are in spite of the winter 2022 rolling Blackouts described above. Why? Because the N.C. politicians and top Duke management have agreed to follow a disastrous Net-Zero Carbon path. So has the S.C. Legislature and Santee-Cooper. I wrote about Santee-Cooper in an earlier article, here.

Energy Storage

My first instructor on electricity generation was in class in 1959. The instructor, Harry Park stated, “Electricity needs to be generated the instant that it is needed”. That stuck with me my entire career. Today intermittent renewables are the rage and of course, as Mr. Park stated in 1959, electricity needs to be generated or provided from storage the instant it is needed. That is what built America’s Grid and America’s strong economy. Reliable, affordable electricity available the instant it is needed or in today’s word, Demanded. The published articles I see regarding the justification of higher and higher percentages of wind and solar generation are dependent on electricity storage. The best and largest Bulk Power Storage systems today are “Pumped Storage Hydro”. Such as Duke Energy’s Bad Creek or TVA’s Raccoon Mountain. These work well where the local topography allows it. Bad Creek has about 1,200 ft of elevation change between the upper and lower reservoirs(21). Bad Creek is currently, according to N.C. Business Journal, being uprated to about 2,800 MW. TVA’s Raccoon Mountain provides 1,650 MW of storage. Two other alternatives for storage are batteries and hydrogen. The largest battery electric storage system (BESS) that I am aware is in California. This is at Moss Landing Plant in California. It is being uprated to 3,000 MWH. The “H” after MW means Hour. That means the electricity stored is good at the rated capacity for one hour. Enough time to start gas turbines or buy power from a neighboring utility on the grid. Hydrogen can be a source of storage too. However, it must be remembered that it takes about four times the input of electricity to produce one unit of Bulk Power from hydrogen. An excellent reference on this was published in Gas Turbine World Magazine in August 2022, Here. (22)

The most reliable, proven, safe and affordable form of Energy Storage: A large pile of coal onsite at a clean, efficient coal power plant. When I started in the power generation business in the 1960’s one of my experiences was in conducting a boiler efficiency test at a large power plant in Illinois. As I recall the explanation for the huge coal pile was, “Because of the possibility of Union walkouts at either the coal mines or the railroad, a 90 day supply of coal was required to be stored on site”. Proven, safe and affordable. The photo below is real long term energy storage. A coal pile can store enough energy for a 2,000 MW power plant to run full power for months, not hours as is currently planned for batteries.

Electricity, Transportation, Industrial Production, Commercial, Residential

These five categories of energy use are shown on the LLNL charts above. Americans with our current population of about 330 million, will need at least 100 Quads per year for the foreseeable future. If we are to sustain our quality of life and freedom to travel, we will continue to need about 100 Quads per year. This article is focussed on electricity generation and the 37% of America’s PRIMARY Energy used to generate Bulk Power. The second part of this article will cover the other 63% of our PRIMARY ENERGY.

Conclusion

It will be impossible to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar any time soon. Attempting to do so will create hardships, economic decline and a general weakness of our country including weakness of our National Security.

The best and most proven energy storage system that I have known through my entire career in power generation is a large coal pile. It was common for coal power plants to have 30 or 60 day supplies of coal storage on the plant site.

On a positive note, I wrote about the preceding 80 years the “Era of Affordable, Reliable Energy and Electricity Generation, Part 1” Here. America really did great things in making energy and electricity reliable and affordable for over 80 years. Coal plants became more efficient and clean, nuclear power came of age and America became energy independent and the largest producer of natural gas in the world. I chose 80 years because that covers my lifetime and I know the history of accomplishments during these times, because I worked in the power generation business for over 50 of those years. Experiences in design, maintenance, operations, tuning, upgrading, capacity improvements, Betterments, Heat-Rate Improvements, fuel flexibility, fouling and slagging reductions and emissions reductions of fossil power systems. I admit, I am not a policy wonk, I am a nuts and bolts power engineer. But, I have been gifted with many years of experiences and have traveled much of the world to witness the relationship of energy and economic prosperity.

The loss of legacy coal plants is threatening Bulk Power Supply Reliability by the loss of over 100,000 MW’s of reliable coal power generation capacity without replacing it in kind is wrong. I wrote on the “End of the Era of Reliable, Affordable Energy and Electricity” a couple weeks ago. It is here. The references included are from NERC, FERC and other reliable people and sources of information. I encourage the reader to check these references to decide for yourself.

Nuclear power generation is the only known technology to produce carbon dioxide free electric power. However, building a new nuclear power generation supply chain will take decades. David Archibald wrote an excellent article on “The Energy Future We Need to Have a Future Worth Having”, here. I also support nuclear for the long term, but the next 30 years are important to work through and hopefully, sustain our high quality of life until future technologies and the needed supply-chains are sufficiently developed for safe and reliable implementation. My previous blog post covered an overview of the needed new thinking (and policies) on nuclear power for carbon dioxide emissions reduction to succeed. here. (27)

Unless the current path to Net-Zero Carbon is stopped, America faces shortages of electricity, including rolling Blackouts during extreme weather. Such as the coming winter in December 2023 and January 2024. Please Wake up Americans, Your Energy and Electricity Supply is Being Self Sabotaged from Within!

Yours truly,

Dick Storm, October 25, 2023

References for further reading:

  1. Dick Storm Blog, Back to Basics, America Needs About 100 Quadrillion Btus each year: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/16/back-to-basics-the-u-s-needs-100-quadrillion-btus-year-of-primary-energy/
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Energy Flow Diagram for year 2022: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov
  3. Dick Storm Blog, “The American Dream=100 Quadrillion Btus of Energy: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/07/04/american-dream-100-quadrillion-btus/
  4. WFAE News Article on, “How Duke’s Power Failures Came to Be From Lack of Reserves over Christmas Eve, 2022: https://www.wfae.org/energy-environment/2023-01-12/how-a-lack-of-power-for-sale-led-to-duke-energys-christmas-eve-blackouts
  5. Dick Storm ENERUM, August 2022 presentation: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_presentation-and-speakers-notes-from-august-activity-7068650158862827520-B-_W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktophttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7056884647858765824?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7056884647858765824%29
  6. Dick Storm Blog post, “Mentoring of Middle School Students on the basics of energy and electricity”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/03/09/mentoring-the-middle-school-students/
  7. Dick Storm Blog post on Rotary presentation, “Demystifying Energy and Electric Power Generation”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/11/17/demystifying-the-importance-of-energy-and-electric-power/
  8. Dick Storm Blog, “Hawaii-A Glimpse Into the Future of the Green New Deal” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2020/06/03/hawaii-a-gimpse-into-the-future-of-the-green-new-deal/
  9. Harold Hamm’s book, “Game Changer” which chronicles the history of Hydraulic Fracturing, Directional Drilling and the Shale Gas Revolution: Dick Storm review: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/17/harold-hamms-book-game-changer-a-must-read-for-elected-officials-and-candidates-for-elective-office/
  10. Dick Storm Blog post, “The End of the Era of Abundant, Affordable Energy and Electricity” Thanks to misguided government Regulations: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/10/12/the-end-of-the-era-of-reliable-abundant-and-affordable-energy-and-electricity-part-ii/
  11. Dick Storm Blog, “How Can a 6,000 MW Utility Which Likely will be a 9,000 MW Utility in 2050, Achieve Net-Zero Carbon?” ; https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/04/27/how-can-a-6000-mw-regional-utility-in-2030-which-likely-will-be-a-9000-mw-utility-in-2050-achieve-net-zero-carbon/
  12. The Green Transition is “Social Vandalism” WUWT, Oct. 3, 2023:  https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/03/the-energy-transition-is-social-vandalism/
  13. America’s Power Coal Facts: https://americaspower.org/COAL-FACTS/
  14. NERC 200-2023 Winter Assessment: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_WRA_2022.pdf  
  15. CO2 Coalition, “Fear the Cold”, Cold is Bad for Humanity, October 24, 2023: https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Fear-the-Cold.html?soid=1101509381788&aid=TJ7nY5OPc1A
  16. Dick Storm Blog, “Green Energy Crisis, Part3”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/06/26/green-energy-crisis-part-3-public-energy-education-is-needed-each-person-in-the-u-s-uses-about-315-million-btus-of-primary-energy-year-this-is-not-practical-or-even-possible-to-replace-with-win/
  17. 1973 Oil Embargo, History by the Boston Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74
  18. The Arab Oil Embargo, 40 Years Later, by Center for Strategic International Studies, 2013: https://www.csis.org/analysis/arab-oil-embargo-40-years-later
  19. WUWT, David Archibald, “The Energy We Need For A Future Worth Having” , Oct. 25, 2023: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/25/the-energy-future-we-need-to-have-a-future-worth-having/
  20. NC Business Journal article on Duke’s Bad Creek Power Plant Size Doubling to 2,800 MW: https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2022/03/01/duke-energy-eyes-doubling-pumped-hydro-project.html
  21. Duke Energy Illumination article on Bad Creek Hydro Plant: https://illumination.duke-energy.com/articles/the-marvel-inside-the-mountain-4608936#:~:text=Because%20about%201%2C200%20feet%20separate,gravity%20to%20produce%20more%20electricity.
  22. Gas Turbine World Magazine, “The Green Hydrogen Numbers Just Do Not Add Up”, August 2022: https://gasturbineworld.com/gas-turbines-burning-green-hydrogen/
  23. Dick Storm Blog, “The End of Reliable, Affordable Energy and Electricity” Oct. 12, 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/10/12/the-end-of-the-era-of-reliable-abundant-and-affordable-energy-and-electricity-part-ii/
  24. Dick Storm Blog, “The Era of Reliable, Affordable Energy and Electricity Generation, Part 1” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/10/04/the-era-of-reliable-affordable-energy-and-electricity-generation-part-1/
  25. Dick Storm Blog on “Texas Missing 6,000 MW of Coal Generation during the February 2021 Blackout”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/02/19/texas-and-coal-power-6000-mws-of-coal-plant-capacity-is-missed/
  26. Dick Storm Blog, “Wake Up Americans, Your Energy and Electricity Supply is Being Self-Sabotaged”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/20/please-wake-up-america-your-energy-and-electricity-generation-reliability-are-at-risk/
  27. Dick Storm Blog, “Without New Thinking on Nuclear Power, Net-Zero Carbon Cannot Succeed”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/11/13/without-new-thinking-on-nuclear-power-anti-carbon-climate-policy-cant-succeed/
  28. FERC-NERC Report on Winter Reliability Lessons from winter storm Elliott: https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-nerc-release-final-report-lessons-winter-storm-elliott
economic prosperity and energy, Education, Energy, Politics and Economic Prosperity, Keeping America Great, Politics & Management, Regulations

The End of the Era of Reliable, Abundant and Affordable Energy and Electricity, Part II

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The Democrat “Green New Deal” policies to attempt to achieve Net-Zero Carbon will likely create energy and electricity shortages this coming winter and worse yet, contribute to the continuing decline of our country.

Energy: Pre-requisite for Economic Prosperity

In part 1 I discussed the path to prosperity of the U.S. during the last 80 years. America was clearly the strongest country in the world by any measure of industrial production, Intellectual advancement, science, space, aeronautics, respect in the world, the world’s largest economy, the world’s largest manufacturer of products, progress in environmental protection, freedom and ease of travel for the citizens and the building of infrastructure, including the most reliable power generation system in the world. The Grid is described by the Smithsonian Magazine as “The Greatest Machine Ever Built, the North American Power Grid“. Yes, our energy and electricity generation infrastructure was the best in the world. The government Bureaucrats in charge of our country are dismantling and wrecking “The Greatest Machine Ever Built”….plus faceless Bureaucratic Agencies in Washington are weakening the Primary energy supplies that our country, military, industries, economic progress and the sources of primary energy that citizens depend on each day. Wrecking it in plain sight.

Government Especially the Democrat Party is Self- Sabotaging America’s Energy and Electricity Generation Infrastructure

Here is a listing of 100 Executive orders compiled by the American Energy Alliance which are against the best interests of America. The EPA, Dept. of Energy, Dept of Interior, Securities and Exchange Commission and essentially all alphabet soup government agencies are weaponized against fossil fuels as part of Biden’s “War on Carbon” under the heading “Climate Change”. The policies to weaken America and including our military strength are beyond absurd, they are Un-American. Here are four posts on my blog and on LinkedIn that outline who the organizations and people are that are behind the un-American energy policies. Here, here, here and here. (6, 7, 8, 9) Disguised as “Climate Policies” they really have nothing to do with protection of human health or the environment. Then there is Dr. Euan Mearns post on WUWT , “The Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”. Here.

Remember the Oil Embargoes of the 1970’s? What comes next due to Un-American Climate Policies, will likely be Worse

During the time period 1940-2022 America made huge advancements in energy production and electricity generation. These are described in part I. Most of this era was positive growth and advancements until there was an interruption of energy supply. That was in the mid 1970’s , caused by the 1973-74 Oil Embargo. Yes, I know, that is history and a long time ago. The reason I bring it up is because the self sabotaging of American energy and electricity generation policies are likely to create more harm and suffering for the citizens than the two oil embargoes of the 1970’s. For a review of history, let me suggest reading the Federal Reserve and Office of the Historian reports. (3 & 4)

Some of the Expected Consequences of Biden’s Climate Policies

Think about your life and what you do each day, what you depend on. Electricity provides heating and cooling for our home, hot water for your shower in the morning, provides heat to cook breakfast. Then, you turn the ignition on in your car and drive to work. If you work for an industrial manufacturing company it is powered by electricity and probably natural gas. Perhaps you are planning a vacation to fly to a tropical island or ski resort. You get the picture, all of these steps we take each day are dependent on reliable, affordable energy. If you disagree with me thus far then think about the last hurricane or severe storm that killed electric power for a day or more. Think about how the loss of electricity or availability of gasoline creates hardship and changes to your life-style. I am old enough to remember the oil embargoes of the 1970’s. The oil embargoes of 1973, 1974 and 1978 caused financial distress of some of the strongest industries and businesses in our country. In my analysis, the energy crisis that is coming will be worse than what we experienced in the 1970’s. What is so alarming is, that it did not have to come to this. These policies have been implemented by (so-called) public servants and elected officials. Unfortunately the only Science that these energy and climate policy makers understand is Political Science.

Nationally Recognized Experts Weigh In

FERC is an acronym for the “Federal Energy Regulatory Commission”. One of the very respected past commissioners, Mr. Mark Christie has testified before Congress and more recently at a conference in Dallas, TX.

FERC Commissioner Mark Christie likened the current state to that of the Great Depression, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt said the country was facing a rendezvous with destiny.

“We’re at a very critical time … reliability means, ‘Are the lights going to stay on?’ That’s what it means to the general public,” Christie said. “Are the lights going to stay on? We’re really at a point where that’s coming into serious question. Are the lights going to stay on?

“Right now, when it comes to the reliability of our grid, the United States is facing a rendezvous with reality. Reality is just around the corner. You may think you can avoid it for a while, but reality will track you down. And reality is tracking us down when it comes to the reliability of our grid,” he added.

Testifying before the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee in May, Christie told lawmakers the grid is facing “potentially catastrophic consequences.” He said he was not trying to be melodramatic. (See Senators Praise Phillips, FERC’s Output at Oversight Hearing.)

The quote from above is from Mr. Mark Christie. Others besides him have warned of the environmental zealots in the EPA and their war on all fossil fuels. Michelle Bloodworth of America’s Power wrote an excellent article in Real Clear Energy, here. (11)

The EPA is either completely out of control or it is controlled by forces that have nefarious goals for America. Here is an example of my local electricity provider’s forecast of future electricity demand and the generation resources they “Hope” to have after 2030 when they plan to shut down several of the reliable, low cost and Dispatchable coal generating plants. Notice how in 2029 the coal generation assets drop off, yet the Demand projection continues to increase. It is a fair question to ask, why are the coal plants being shut down, if the power is needed? Why were no modern clean coal plants built since 2013? The Democrat Party’s “War on Coal is the reason. Here is an excellent report by the 114th Congress, published in 2015.(12)

Then there is the major investor owned utility to the north and one excerpt from their IRP (Integrated Resource Plan) is similar. It is copied below. Both of these Utilities are planning to shut down major coal generation that has served them and their customers well for, in Duke’s case over 100 years. Notice the figure below, this is an excerpt from the Duke Energy IRP. The coal plants, like Santee-Cooper’s have served Duke very well for many years but because of government policies of Net-Zero Carbon, they plan to shut down much of the coal generation by 2036. Interestingly, it is plainly shown as a “Firm Resource Gap”. That means less generation capacity than what is forecasted as the Demand. This is in plain sight and prepared by engineers and managers that must know better. I am perplexed as to why more managers and engineers do not speak out?

This winter(10, 11) is likely to result in more Blackouts and energy shortages. In my opinion it will be somewhat like the hardships of the 1973 Oil Embargo. This time it is our own President and Bureaucratic agencies that are causing it. Did Mark Levin get it right with his selection of the title of his recent book, “The Democrat Party Hates AMERICA“? Well right now, it looks like Mark Levin is correct, and I came to that same conclusion before his book was published back in 1998 when I first ran into EPA actions of “New Source Review” by the Clinton Administration. My previous blog post in 2021 outlined “The War on Carbon, How it Came to Be”here. (13) The administration of President Jimmy Carter has been criticized for decades. In my life experiences in the power industry, today Jimmy Carter looks like an American Patriot, Energy Expert and a Saint compared to Joe Biden and his administration.

Decline by Design

The influencers of American energy policies have been discussed by me and others. Some recent reports by NERC, FERC & RTO’s warn of unreliable Bulk Power Supplies in the near future. Numerous books and articles by Donn Dears, Judith Curry, the CO2 Coalition, CFACT, Ed Ireland, Robert Bryce, the Washington Examiner and many others have documented “Weaponization of the EPA” and the entire government of the Biden Administration. It is obvious to me that this is not naiveté or foolishness. It has to be intentional. I am angry that Congress has not reigned in the Executive Branch Agencies.

Conclusions

  • The high quality of life that we have come to enjoy along with a growing stock market, reasonable cost food and much more is at risk. Our future is uncertain because the President and government policy makers are self sabotaging America’s energy and electricity infrastructure.
  • The general public is not interested in pushing back and has continued to vote for Presidents, Senators and Congressional Representatives that are just as unaware of the importance of energy and electricity generation as their constituents
  • Public education on Energy and Electricity has failed
  • “Woke” Businesses and Industries have promoted Green and renewable energy when their leaders must know better but they do it to follow the “Green New Deal” cash flow
  • Congress has Delegated too Much Power to Federal Agencies and they Refuse to Reign them in. Especially the EPA
  • Given the Net-Zero Carbon Path that we are on, the Future of America’s Energy and Economic Progress is at Risk. The title of one of Donn Dears Book had it right: “Net-Zero Carbon- The Climate Policy Destroying America” Yes, it is true. The Biden Climate Policies are Destroying America.

I have believed for many years that no one should bet against America and I love America and feel as Patriotic as anyone. However, the Climate policies currently in place has our country on a very uncertain path. Energy that is Reliable, Affordable and Available when we need it is not optional…..Energy is vital to keep our country strong. Why is our government at war with the lifeblood of our country? Why isn’t Congress acting? Why are senior engineers and managers in Electric Utilities not pushing back?

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, October 12, 2023

References:

  1. RTO Conference report by RTO Insider, “Rendezvous With Destiny”, Dallas, TX, Sept. 11, 2023: https://www.rtoinsider.com/55069-grid-rendezvous-reality-resource-adequacy-summit/
  2. Mark R. Levin’s book, “The Democrat Party Hates America” 2023, Threshold Editions
  3. Federal Reserve Report on 1973-74 Oil Embargo: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74
  4. 1973-1974 Oil Embargo History, Arab-Israel War: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo
  5. American Energy Alliance listing of 100 Executive Orders that harm Oil and Gas production in the U.S. : https://www.americanenergyalliance.org/2022/05/100-ways-biden-and-the-democrats-have-made-it-harder-to-produce-oil-gas/
  6. Dick Storm Blog post, “Wake Up Americans”: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/20/please-wake-up-america-your-energy-and-electricity-generation-reliability-are-at-risk/
  7. Dick Storm Columbus Energy Forum (ENERUM) presentation, August 2022:  https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_presentation-and-speakers-notes-from-august-activity-7068650158862827520-B-_W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktophttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7056884647858765824?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7056884647858765824%29
  8. Dick Storm Blog, January 2023, “Influencers of U.S. Energy Policy” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/04/influencers-of-american-energy-policy/
  9. Dick Storm Blog, “Green Energy Crisis, Part 2, Meet the Policy Makers that Caused It” June 2023″: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/06/14/green-energy-crisis-part-2-meet-the-policy-makers-that-caused-it/
  10. NERC 2022-2023 Winter Assessment: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_WRA_2022.pdf
  11. RealClearEnergy, by Michelle Blodworth, Oct. 6, 2023 “A Precipitous Dash to Grid Reliability Crisis” ; https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/06/a_precipitous_dash_to_a_grid_reliability_crisis_984481.html
  12. Obama’s Carbon Mandate, Report by 114th Congress on the Revolving Door Employment of Bureaucrats in High Government Positions: http://www.scientificintegrityinstitute.org/USSEWP080415.pdf
  13. Dick Storm Blog, “How the War on Carbon Came to Be” Oct. 2021: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2021/10/16/the-war-on-carbon-how-it-came-to-be/
  14. Books by Donn Dears: “Net Zero Carbon- The Climate Policy Destroying America”, “The Looming Energy Crisis”, “Clean Power Crisis” and “Have No Fear”
  15. Dick Storm Blog post, Oct. 4, 2023: “THE ERA OF RELIABLE, AFFORDABLE, ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY GENERATION: PART 1” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/10/04/the-era-of-reliable-affordable-energy-and-electricity-generation-part-1/
  16. WUWT post by Dr. Euan Mearns, “The Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/03/the-energy-transition-is-social-vandalism/
  17. Ed Ireland Sub Stack on ERCOT Vows to Fight the EPA Plans to Shut Down Texas Coal Plants: https://open.substack.com/pub/edireland/p/texas-vows-to-fight-epas-plans-to?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
  18. CFACT website with numerous articles on Energy and Climate Policies: https://www.cfact.org
  19. Statistics Norway Report on Climate, October 2023: https://www.ssb.no/en/natur-og-miljo/forurensning-og-klima/artikler/to-what-extent-are-temperature-levels-changing-due-to-greenhouse-gas-emissions/_/attachment/inline/5a3f4a9b-3bc3-4988-9579-9fea82944264:f63064594b9225f9d7dc458b0b70a646baec3339/DP1007.pdf
  20. Follow the Climate Money, Post by Ron Clutz, October 21, 2023: https://rclutz.com/2023/10/19/follow-the-climate-money-updated/#like-33509
  21. Green Hydrogen Needs Vast Subsidies of Your Money: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/19/green-hydrogen-needs-vast-subsidies/
  22. WSJ, The Green Electrical Grid Isn’t Coming, Oct. 21, 2023: https://www.wsj.com/articles/international-energy-agency-green-energy-transmission-lines-co2-26f9cfa?mod=opinion_lead_pos2
Coal Power, economic prosperity and energy, Energy, Electricity, Economic Prosperity and Environmental Protection, Fossil Fuels are Important, Personal Experiences of Coal Plants and Industrial Expansion

The Era of Reliable, Affordable, Energy and Electricity Generation: Part 1

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This is my Perspective of Proven, Reliable, Affordable & Abundant Energy & Electricity Generation during my lifetime. Here are some of the significant technical advances, changes, regulations, incidents, events and policies that have shaped energy and power generation over the last eight decades. Some personal experiences are interjected during this era just to show where I am coming from in my perspective. Part 2 will cover my thoughts on the impossible transition to renewables.

A Brief History of the Improved Quality of Life Since WWII

Dr. Euan Mearns wrote in WUWT this short summary of the history of energy and the “Energy Transition as Social Vandalism”(19). An excerpt from the concise and well written essay:

“The mid 19th century also saw the development of early internal combustion engines, although at that time there was insufficient fuel for a motor industry. The Spindletop gusher and subsequent discoveries changed all that. The world was now awash with oil without any real market. Then in 1908, Henry Ford rolled out his Model T to begin the age of the car and mass transit. The Wright brothers’ first powered flight in 1908 led quickly to commercial air travel and eventually to the jet age.

Unparalleled development came with the 20th century and the introduction of nuclear power plants whose uranium fuel contains more than 16,000 times the energy content of coal, oil and natural gas. At the same time, hydroelectric power rapidly expanded and natural gas (the most energy dense of the fossil fuels by mass) became more available for electricity generation and home heating and cooking.

The introduction of gas-fired central heating enhanced the well-being of populations. Whole homes would be heated by hot-water radiators, and no longer would families have to huddle round a dirty coal fire. By 2000, life expectancy in world population had risen to 66 years, 78 years in the now developed countries.”

Looking back, I am awed by the progress that was made for the Betterment of the quality of life for Humankind. I am proud of my small contributions along the way.

Some of the Significant Energy & Electricity Mileposts: 1940-2023

  • Pulverized coal firing for steam generation becomes the predominant method of power generation
  • Mechanical dust collectors are used for collection of particulates
  • 1941 B&W invents and develops Cyclone Burners to fire low fusion midwestern coal with more than 70% of the ash collected as a molten smelt
  • 1943 Combustion-Engineering invents and develops Tilting Tangential Firing
  • Electrostatic precipitators are applied to large coal plants
  • 1949 First G-E Gas Turbine for electric power generation in the U.S. installed at Oklahoma Gas & Electric Belle Isle Plant
  • 1951 U.S. Navy Admiral Rickover obtains funding from Congress to build the first nuclear powered submarine, Nautilus
  • 1953 President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” initiative
  • Supercritical pressure steam generators become common place
  • 1955 USS Nautilus puts to sea
  • 1955 First “Atoms for Peace Conference” in Geneva
  • Steam temperatures and power generation from Rankine cycle steam plant efficiency approaches 40% design efficiency
  • 1957 Shippingport Nuclear Steam System, the first U.S. Commercial Reactor is proven
  • 1957-59 Philo and Eddystone Ultrasupercritical Units are placed in service
  • 1970 – President Nixon signs law to form EPA
  • Coal pulverizer state of the art advances to single pulverizers with over 100,000 pounds per hour capacity
  • 1973 First Oil Embargo
  • 1977 U.S. Department of Energy is formed with the intention to lead America to energy independence
  • The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is begun
  • 1978 EPA Clean Air Act
  • 1978 President Jimmy Carter signs Energy Policy Act
  • 1979 Three Mile Island Incident
  • 1980 Energy Security Act
  • 1988 G-E Single Cycle Aeroderivative Gas Turbine achieves 41.9% efficiency
  • 1990 EPA-Clean Air Act Amendment
  • 1991-First Horizontal Drilling by Enid Company in OK
  • Low NOx Burners or other NOx reduction systems are installed on most coal plants across the U.S.
  • Flue gas desulfurization becomes standard for coal plants
  • Selective Catalytic Reactors are used to reduce NOx
  • 2010 Hydraulic Fracturing combined with Directional Drilling by Harold Hamm’s company greatly increases shale gas production in ND
  • 2012 The Shale Gas Revolution produces natural gas at lower cost/million Btu than coal
  • 2014 CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) units achieve over 60% efficiency
  • 2018 G-E CCGT (Combined CycleGas Turbine) Reaches 64% Efficiency
  • 2020 Natural gas electricity generation provides over 38% of U.S. electricity production
  • 2022 U.S. Congress passes IRA Law and Biden signs, it codifies green energy

Reasonable Cost Energy & Electricity Improves Quality of Life

This is a personal story of electricity generation. Here is my take on how “Living Better Electrically” came to be, during my lifetime. Here is a typical TV ad from circa 1962, the year I entered the workforce.

Electricity Generation 1962-2012 Living Better Electrically

This 50 year period was my personal career, most of which I spent working in the electric power generation business. Including equipment design, manufacturing, startup, testing, operations, maintenance, emissions reduction and upgrading of coal power production equipment. My specialty was large electric utility fuel burning and steam generating equipment. Upon graduation from Williamson in 1962 I was employed as an electrician then as a utility engineer at Mobil Oil Corporation. In 1966 I joined Babcock & Wilcox working in Barberton, Ohio as a Technical Assistant to the Project Engineer in the Nuclear and Special Projects Department. Projects that I worked on as part of the B&W team were the Duke Oconee Nuclear Steam Systems, numerous reactors, steam generators and pressurizers for Navy Nuclear Propulsion Systems and large heavy walled, high pressure, pressure vessels for the Petrochemical industry.

Duke, Oconee #1 Reactor Vessel at B&W Shop in Mt. Vernon, Indiana, from Duke Annual Report 1967

In the 1960’s electricity was very reasonable in cost and nuclear power was proclaimed by the AEC Head (Atomic Energy Commission) Lewis Strauss as soon to be “Too Cheap to Meter”. Commercial nuclear power generation had been proven at Shippingport and was growing exponentially in applications all across the country. The two most memorable engineering leaders that I remember visiting B&W’s Barberton facilities (while I worked there) were Admiral Rickover, the Father of the nuclear Navy and commercial nuclear power generation and Bill Lee, who at the time, was Duke Power Company’s VP of engineering. Mr. Lee was said to have favored the B&W Nuclear Steam System because it was slightly more efficient with the Once through Steam Generator providing a small amount of superheat that competing NSS (Nuclear Steam Systems) did not provide, to the steam supply to the turbine. Duke Power at the time, had commissioned some of the most efficient coal plants in the world and planned to extract the highest possible efficiency from their first nuclear powered steam supply system. This was logical to Mr. Lee and one reason he was attracted to the new B&W OTSG (Once Through Steam Generator) which was designed for a few degrees of superheated steam temperature. My previous blog post discussed the B&W, C-E and Westinghouse nuclear power manufacturing facilities here.

The Most Efficient and Largest Supercritical Coal Power Plants Built 1957-1975

The 1960’s were exciting times for coal fueled power plants too. Two Milestone supercritical power plants were built and started up during this time. The 5,000 psi Eddystone Steam Station (Philadelphia Electric) with a steam generator built by Combustion Engineering and the 4,700 psi Philo Plant (AEP) steam generator was built by Babcock & Wilcox.

Soon after these magnificent accomplishments was the 900 MW Combustion Engineering series of supercritical steam generators at Conemaugh & Keystone plants in western PA. Then the 1,300 MW supercritical steam generators built by B&W for AEP and TVA. Certainly impressive to me at the time with furnaces over 100 foot wide and operation at over 3,500 psi with superheated main steam at 1,000 degrees F. and also Reheated steam supply to 1,000 degrees F.

Duke Power designed, installed, operated and maintained the most efficient coal plants in the world with the additions of Marshall Units 3 & 4 on Lake Norman in 1969 and 1970.

Later, the Belews Creek coal plant was installed and between Marshall and Belews Creek competed for the highest efficiency coal plants in the U.S. Belews Creek Steam Station is a 2.24-GW, two-unit coal-fired generating facility located on Belews Lake in Stokes County, North Carolina. It is or was  Duke Energy’s largest coal-burning power plant in the Carolinas and when it was operated on coal it ranked among the most efficient coal facilities in the United States. During 2006, it was the fifth most efficient coal power plant in the United States with a heat rate of 9,023 Btu/kWh (37.8% conversion efficiency). In 2008, it was the #1 most efficient coal power plant in the United States with a heat rate of 9,204 British thermal units per kilowatt-hour (2.697 kWh/kWh) or 37.1% conversion efficiency.

A Few of My Personal Experiences with Coal Plants in the 1970’s

My first foray into S.C. was as one of three startup engineers for the SCE&G Wateree coal plant in Eastover, SC. This is a coal fueled, two unit supercritical steam supply plant which uses two Riley Stoker supercritical steam generators. These are the only two supercritical steam generators built by Riley. They have been very successful and in fact, at this writing are still in service 53 years after the startup of Unit #1. After that in 1972 I was assigned as lead startup engineer at the 420 MW Sutton Unit #3 near Wilmington ,NC. This plant is shown below during steam line blowing in June 1972. Steam line blowing was one of my favorite activities in the startup of a new plant. The roar of the exiting steam at supersonic velocity was memorable and provided a sense of the enormous power of steam. Steam line blowing is a one time startup operation to remove grit and foreign debris from inside the superheater and reheater tubes and piping, so that when operation begins, solid particles of debris will not damage the steam turbine blades.

Following the startup of Sutton #3, in January 1973 I joined Carolina Power and Light Company as a senior engineer. My first assignment was as the lead startup engineer on Roxboro Unit #3. This is a 720 MW coal Unit with a unique design of two half capacity boilers and one common feedwater supply train with a blended single stream steam supply to one G-E 720 MW turbine rated at 2,400 psi 1,000 degree F. Superheat and 1,000 degree F. Reheated steam to the last 13 stages of the turbine. The Roxboro plant is shown below in a recent photo by Duke Energy. This plant was started up as CP&L and was later absorbed to be part of Duke Energy.

Reasonable Cost, Abundant, Reliable and Dispatchable Coal and Nuclear Provide the lowest Cost Electricity in the World

The Roxboro plant is still in operation and it is rated at 2462 MW generation capacity. Let me digress with a short anecdote. Back in the time frame of about 1975 I was involved in an ASME meeting in Niagara Falls, NY. As part of the group, we were given a tour of the Niagara Falls Hydro plant on the U.S. side of the river downstream of the falls. I was struck at the time with the realization that all of the water feeding several of the Great Lakes provides (on the U.S. side) about the same generation capacity as the Roxboro Thermal Plant did. A real world lesson in “Energy Density”. Roxboro’s four units are rated 2,462 MW, the Robert Moses Hydroelectric plant 2,300 MW. This comparison is one I find helpful when non-energy trained people ask why are coal plants necessary? It helps to explain the enormous energy density of a coal fueled power plant.

Niagara Falls, Robert Moses Hydroelectric Plant, about five miles downstream of Niagara Falls, From NY Power Authority website

Fuel Diversity Helps Keep Costs Down, All Fuels Are Important

I joined Riley Stoker in 1969 and worked at Tampa Electric on the final acceptance work of the Gannon Station Units 5 & 6. Then on to the SCE&G Waterree plant for the startup of Riley’s first and only supercritical steam generator. Wateree is still running today and it was very successful. After startup of Wateree #1, I was sent to the City of Lakeland, Florida to finish the startup of the 80 MW oil and gas fueled Power Plant #3 (now named McIntosh) The unique and difficult design of this unit was that it was a stand alone, single unit with no steam connections to another unit. It was fueled by heavy oil, #6 or also known as Bunker C. The oil required heating to about 220 degrees F. to reduce the viscosity for satisfactory atomization and complete burning in the furnace. Because there was no gas or steam connections, the startup entailed firing on Diesel fuel until the boiler had at least 1000 psi drum pressure. Then the stored energy of the boiler would be used to heat and circulate oil from the Heavy oil supply tank. It sounds simple enough, however when the new controls and safety interlocks were all in startup mode, unproven and with numerous glitches, steam pressure would be lost and the operation on diesel fuel would need to be repeated. Any field engineer with experience in oil firing Utility boilers knows the importance of steam or compressed air cleaning of the Ljungstrom regenerative air heaters to prevent fires. That is the reason I was sent to Lakeland. The previous startup engineer was not careful about airheater cleaning and both airheaters were destroyed by fires. I was sent to replace that unfortunate startup engineer.

Oil firing was common in the 1970’s because it was competitive with coal at $0.50/million Btu. After Lakeland I was sent to lead the startup of Jacksonville Electric Authority’s Northside #2. A 325 MW heavy oil fueled boiler. Then off to CP&L Sutton #3, a 420 MW fueled at startup with heavy oil and with provisions for future coal fuel. America’s power demand was rapidly growing, especially in the south where air conditioning and heat pumps were taking off in popularity. As I recall peak load growth was about 10% per year. To illustrate the rapid growth in electric demand, here is my recollection of the units added at CP&L over a five year period:

  • Robinson #2, 700 MW, 1970 (Nuclear)
  • Asheville Unit #2, 200 MW, 1971 (coal)
  • Sutton Unit #3, 420 MW , 1972 (coal/oil)
  • Roxboro Unit #3, 720MW, 1973 (coal)
  • Brunswick Unit #1, 836 MW, 1975 (nuclear)

During this time period (1970-1977) CP&L was a regional Utility separate from Duke Energy. The total installed capacity of CP&L back during this time was about 6,000 MW. Therefore, the rapid system load growth is illustrated by the addition of five generating units totaling 2,876 MW in generation capacity in just five years. It was a great time to be involved in the power industry… And then came the Oil Embargo and some difficult times for the industry.

City of Lakeland, Power Plant #3, Now there are three Units, including a 360 MW coal unit #3. Picture by Dick Storm about 1971

During 1973 the U.S. government supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab nations.

At the time of the first oil embargo, 1973-1974, the EPA had been creating needed air pollution rules to reduce emissions from coal fueled power plants. Amongst the first pollutants to be addressed, was particulates. Before the Oil Embargo coal cost and oil cost per million Btus was about the same, right at $0.50 per million Btu. Therefore to reduce emissions fast, Utilities had an economic choice of converting coal plants to oil fuel which has nearly zero ash content or install millions of dollars of backend equipment, including electrostatic precipitators. Carolina Power and Light Company took the path of installing electrostatic precipitators on the newest units (Asheville #2, Sutton #3 and Roxboro #3) and converting the older, smaller coal units to being fueled by oil. Many utilities to the north, including VEPCO, PEPCO, Philadelphia Electric and others, chose the fuel oil conversion route to reduce particulates with less capital cost than installing electrostatic precipitators. This could be done with much lower costs to the consumer because the coal and heavy oil costs were about the same on the fuel cost/million BTU. About $0.50/mmb. Fuel cost is the largest single component of electricity production cost. Comprising between 75 and 92% of the production cost. Thus, when fuel costs escalate, so does the electricity production cost increase.

The Oil Embargo made an immediate fuel supply shortage for all petroleum products and including residual #6 heavy fuel oil. This is when, in my recollections, that major “Wheeling of Power” across state lines became common. The Utilities in the states to the north of CP&L were; VEPCO, PEPCO, Delmarva and Philadelphia Electric. They could receive coal generated electricity from Duke Power, CP&L and other southern Utilities across state lines using existing Transmission interconnections by wheeling power. This was before RTO’s (Regional Transmission Operators) were created.

The 1973-1980 time frame was difficult for Utilities and some had to cut once reliable dividends to stockholders and some went Bankrupt (Consolidated Edison in NY had a particularly difficult time) due to the volatile fuel costs.

National Energy Act of 1978

The energy shock of the oil embargo prompted Congress and the President to act on energy policy. Also during this time the Alaska Pipeline was approved and built(15). Jimmy Carter signed the first Energy Act in 1978.

America’s electricity supply has remained reliable and of reasonable cost for all of my lifetime. Below is a chart of world electricity prices in 2009 which shows the comparison of U.S. electricity prices to other industrialized countries of the world.

Shown on the chart of electricity costs above is Denmark and the Netherlands which were two of the first countries to implement wind farms for significant portions of their power generation.

America up to about 2012 used coal fuel for over 50% of our electricity production. Reasonable cost, reliable, abundant and dispatchable coal, generation powered the largest economy in the world. Reasonable cost electricity and GDP tend to parallel each other as shown on the graph below.

Coal Plant Efficiency Rankings

Up until the war on coal, coal plant designers, operators and maintenance personnel took pride in striving for the best overall efficiency. The best yearly coal plant efficiencies were typically from well run supercritical steam pressure units. Duke Power, PEPCO and AEP typically held the top positions. Duke Power’s Marshall and Belews Creek had repeatedly good years. Here is a typical ranking from 2013, Power Engineering Magazine:

I personally remember many meetings with Utility engineering management where the topic of discussion was modifications to the boilers and fuel burning equipment so that fuel changes could be made to reduce the production costs of power and at the same time, reduce emissions. One fuel change that was popular in the 1990’s was to convert coal plants designed for eastern Bituminous coal to fire western Powder River Basin fuel. This reduced emissions of NOx and kept production cost of power reasonable.

The Shale Gas Revolution

The combination of Hydraulic fracturing and Directional Drilling created an enormously large boost in U.S. natural gas production beginning about 2012. Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub dropped from a high of over $12.00/million BTU to about $2.00/million BTU in 2012. This abundance of natural gas fuel at this price, was competitive with well run, efficient coal plants. Then, the E.P.A. ramped up restrictions on coal plant emissions but the consumer was insulated from electricity price hikes because many natural gas CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) plants were being built and fuel diversity allowed the Utilities to switch generation from coal plants to new, highly efficient CCGT generating units.

The vastly increased supply of natural gas drove the price of gas down to below the cost of coal on a unit heating value basis. Gas dropped to below $2.00 per million Btu. Also during this time period, gas turbine-combined cycle plant efficiencies increased to the range of 60%. Power generation efficiencies over the years is shown on the graph below. The combination of low cost natural gas and enormous efficiency advantage of CCGT plants greatly increased the use of natural gas fuel for power generation. Keep in mind, the advantage of natural gas fuel is only an advantage when there are pipelines to provide the fuel and there is an abundant natural gas supply. This does not work well in all states, such as Massachusetts and Hawaii.

The combinations of low fuel cost, low Capital cost, low environmental emissions controls cost and greatly increased efficiency together made natural gas fuel more economically attractive than coal for new generating plants. The fuel of choice became natural gas for Utilities that had pipelines and sources of natural gas fuel. Coal fuel accounted for 50% of electricity generation in 2004 but was reduced to 23% by the increased use of more economical natural gas by 2019.

Duke Energy, Buck Station CCGT Plant

America is Blessed with Enormous Energy and Mineral Resources

America has plenty of Coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear fuels to power our economy and our life styles. I have written other blog posts on the relationship of energy and economic prosperity. Specifically, our lifestyles and our industrial production requires on average, about 315 +/- 15 million Btus of energy each year per person This equates to about 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy per year for our country. This level of energy requirement has held steady for about twenty five years. More on the need for 100 Quads of energy/year are here, here, here and here (20, 21, 22, 23) . Up until the manufactured climate hoax and war on carbon, America enjoyed reasonable cost, reliable electricity and also gasoline, Diesel and Jet Fuel supplies. America became energy independent in 2020.

Energy Growth and Clean Air Too!

Protection of the environment is important to all of us, including me. In fact, much of my career was invested in improving efficiency and reducing emissions of coal generating plants. There has been steady progress in cleaning the air and water of the U.S. and I would be remiss if I did not show that during the preceding eight decades in spite of population growth, increases in the number of miles driven and the growth of the economy, the real pollutants have been drastically reduced from the levels of the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s. The chart below was prepared by the EPA.

Two of the Last Clean Coal Plants Built in America

Coal plants are robust, reliable and when properly maintained can run safely and reliably for over fifty years. Several of the plants that I have personal experience with were mentioned above. However, newer designs with greater efficiency and improved emission controls should be built to replace the aging plants. In 2008 there were plans for dozens of new, clean coal plants to be built. Two magnificent examples are the John Turk Plant and the (then called Cliffside) #6 Unit at Rogers Energy Center in S.C.

Duke’s Rogers Energy Center Unit #6 Startup 2013
AEP-John Turk Plant, Arkansas

Example of Many New Coal & Nuclear Plants, Planned and Should Have Been Built 2012-2022

Santee-Cooper Pee Dee Plant, Planned to Be Built near Florence, SC

The Pee Dee Energy Center is one example of dozens of new, clean, efficient coal plants that were planned but cancelled due to political pressure of the environmental activists. I predict that these plants will be sorely missed during the winter peak power generation periods in December 2023 and January 2024. So will the Summer Nuclear Units #2 & 3 be missed.

Slide of Summer 2 & 3 and Vogtle Plant Construction from Dick Storm USCB-OLLI Course

Summary

My contribution to the progress made in the last 80 years was very modest and I will quickly admit that. However, because I worked with many talented and visionary engineers and in hundreds of generating plants around the world, I had a very good position to observe the progress of the giants in our industry. Engineers with a Vision of abundant, clean and reasonable cost electricity generation. To mention a few of these giants: Admiral Hyman Rickover, Bill Lee of Duke Power, Mendall Long of CP&L, Bill McCall of Santee-Cooper and many more fine engineers like them. What were their goals? To improve the quality of life, security, safety, economic growth, ensure that reasonable cost power could be produced for decades into the future, provide Bulk Power at the lowest possible cost to attract industry, increase industrial output, provide good paying jobs in their service territory, and design power plants that provide environmental protection for all of the citizens.

During the last 80 years nuclear power became a reality and today about 19% of our electricity is generated from clean, carbon free nuclear power plants. Many are now over fifty years old, but still reliable and inexpensive producers of vital electricity.

Natural gas generation has progressed from the first simple cycle unit built by G-E in 1949 at about 25% efficiency to today’s combined cycle gas turbine plants that at optimum load points can operate at over 60% thermal efficiency. They are amongst the most efficient machines ever built, of any kind.

Ultra-supercritical, clean coal plants such as Turk and Rogers #6 have been developed to provide reliable, reasonable cost, clean and importantly, Dispatchable power generation. There should have been built more like these Why? Because fuel diversity is important when one fuel becomes short in supply. For example, the 1973-74 Oil Embargo. Today most of the Dispatchable electricity generation is from natural gas which of course, flows through pipelines. Pipelines are reliable but, fuel storage is not practical. Coal plants, on the other hand, can store several months fuel supply on site.

Fuel Diversity is important for electricity generation reliability. I am proud to have worked during these years to do my best to make a small contribution to the great progress that was accomplished.

Part 2 will describe the self induced end of reliability, affordability and dispatch ability of electricity generation. As Dr. Euan Mearns recently wrote in “Watts Up With That”….The “Energy Transition is Social Vandalism”(19)

It is my best hope that America and our politicians will wake up and understand the importance of primary energy from conventional sources.

Yours very truly,

Dick Storm, October 4, 2023

References

  1. You Tube video of a “Living Better Electrically” ad hosted by Ronald Reagan, who was with the G-E Theater on Sunday nights for 8 years 1953-1962: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Lz1C53RwI
  2. NY Power Authority Facts on Robert Moses Hydroelectric Plant at Niagara Falls: https://www.niagarafallsinfo.com/niagara-falls-history/niagara-falls-power-development/the-history-of-power-development-in-niagara/robert-moses-generating-station/
  3. Duke Energy Roxboro Plant Info: https://www.duke-energy.com/our-company/about-us/power-plants/roxboro-plant
  4. Duke Power Belews Creek Plant Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belews_Creek_Power_Station
  5. 1973-1974 Oil Embargo History, Arab-Israel War: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo
  6. 1973 Oil Embargo by Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74
  7. Duke Power References of Oconee & Marshall Steam Plant Annual Report 1967: https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1526/ML15261A046.pdf
  8. Power Magazine Feature article on the Top Plant, Duke’s Cliffside #6 which started up in 2013. The last new coal plant I can remember being commissioned for commercial service in the U.S. : https://www.powermag.com/cliffside-steam-station-unit-6-cliffside-north-carolina/
  9. Scientific American, March 2023, “Seven Ways Jimmy Carter Improved U.S. Energy Future, or At Least Tried to” : https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/7-ways-jimmy-carter-has-improved-americas-energy-future-or-tried-to/
  10. Power Magazine article on High Efficiency Gas Turbine Developments, 2018: https://www.powermag.com/efficiency-improvements-mark-advances-in-gas-turbines/
  11. POWER Magazine article on the History of Gas Turbines for Electricity generation: https://www.powermag.com/a-brief-history-of-ge-gas-turbines-2/
  12. Politico, 2015 article “Inside the War on Coal”: https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/05/inside-war-on-coal-000002/
  13. Obama’s War on Coal 2008 article in Townhall: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/conncarroll/2014/04/01/obamas-war-on-coal-n1817140
  14. Explanation of Directional Drilling for Hydraulic Fracturing and production of Shale Gas, Drillers.com: https://drillers.com/directional-drilling-everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know/
  15. National Energy Act of 1978, Energy Policy Act and PURPA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Act
  16. History of the Alaska Pipeline by the American Oil & Gas History Society: https://aoghs.org/transportation/trans-alaska-pipeline/#:~:text=Oil%20was%20first%20discovered%20in,renewed%20in%20November%20of%202002.
  17. New York Times, May 10, 1974, Con-Edison Declares it may go Bankrupt without help, due to Oil Embargo fuel cost escalations: https://www.nytimes.com/1974/05/10/archives/con-edison-says-it-faces-bankruptcy-without-help-con-ed-says-it-is.html
  18. Congressional Report on Financial Condition of Utilities, 1970-1986: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/99th-congress-1985-1986/reports/doc10b-entire_1.pdf
  19. WUWT, Oct. 3, 2023, “Energy Transition is Social Vandalism” :https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/03/the-energy-transition-is-social-vandalism/
  20. America Needs about 100 Quadrillion Btus of PRIMARY energy each year: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/16/back-to-basics-the-u-s-needs-100-quadrillion-btus-year-of-primary-energy/
  21. Energy=Life as We Know and Enjoy it: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/08/22/energy-life-that-is-life-as-we-enjoy-it/  
  22. Energizing the Public to Understand the Importance of Primary Energy: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/03/20/educating-and-energizing-the-public-on-energy-policy-and-the-impossibility-of-powering-america-with-wind-and-solar/
  23. Energy and Economic Prosperity: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/11/18/energy-and-economic-prosperity-2/
  24. Wake Up America:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/21/please-wake-up-america-your-energy-and-electricity-generation-reliability-are-at-risk/
  25. Dick Storm ENERUM, August 2022 presentation:  https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-storm-00557810_presentation-and-speakers-notes-from-august-activity-7068650158862827520-B-_W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktophttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7056884647858765824?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7056884647858765824%29