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The Solution to the Nation’s Coming Electricity Reliability Crisis: Build New Coal Plants!

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Thank you President Trump for your leadership and courage to support American Energy Independence and to start a new Golden Age of Economic Prosperity. A thriving economy today is powered by electricity and the electricity Demand is growing at the highest rate in decades. According to Utility Dive and Grid Strategies: “U.S. electricity demand could rise 128 GW over the next five years, driven by data centers and manufacturing growth primarily in six regions of the country, according to a report published Thursday by Grid Strategies. The “shocking” estimate represents a five-fold increase in load growth forecasts over the past two years”

POWER Magazine Headline in the April edition:

Nation’s Power Operators Warn Congress of a Coming Reliability Shortfall

“Explosive Load Growth Is Now a Certainty—Driven Largely by Data Centers and AI”

The forecasted shortages are serious. As this is written, it is “Outage Season” in April when electric Demand has typically been very low due to naturally mild temperatures not requiring much air conditioning and very little heating of the lower 48 states. PJM is a good example of the forecast for peak summer and winter loads in just the next few years. As published in POWER Magazine….

“Projected growth: PJM expects its summer peak to increase by approximately 70 GW-from 150 GW in 2024 to 220 GW by 2039-nearly 47% rise over 15 years. Winter peaks could climb to 210 GW by 2039, a 45% increase from the current winter peak of 144 GW.

What to Do?……..

My Suggestion: Build New Coal Plants

Here are my suggestions regarding a Balanced Energy Portfolio which uses coal for at least 30% of America’s electricity generation portfolio. Fred Palmer and Frank Clemente wrote an excellent article on the “Value of Coal”, here. Another, “Subsidized Solar and Wind Is Undermining the Grid, While Coal Provides Reliable Baseload Power, But Trump Is On It!” by Thomas J. Shepstone and the IER here.

Four of my previous articles on the importance of coal power as a significant source of primary energy are here, here, here and here.

The Importance of Primary Energy

America is facing a shortage of reliable, affordable and Dispatchable electricity generation. As summarized in Palmer and Clemente’s Value of Coal article, coal is a proven source of primary energy that meets all three criteria, affordable, Dispatchable and reliable. In addition, it is on-site storable energy. The experiences and end results of using renewables has been much higher costs and less reliability than coal. I wrote an article with electricity price comparisons of the states with the highest cost electricity compared to those states and countries using a high percentage of coal. The highest cost electricity is in states which are on a path to shut down coal plants and use more wind and solar, such as Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, CT, RI and Maine.

The U.S. electricity generation growth is expected to double by 2050. Remember the governments encouragement and EV policies to “Electrify Everything”? We cannot electrify everything, but the electric Demand is likely to double by 2050. Therefore, providing new generation capacity to meet that growth can and should be by the building of new American made coal power plants. Why not Nuclear? Sure, new nuclear plants should be built too. However, new nuclear plants are, in my estimation, more than ten years out due to limitations of the Supply-Chain and (even with President Trump) NRC permitting. The coal plant Supply-Chain and talent can, in my experience and opinion, be ramped up faster than nuclear. Thus, the case for constructing new coal plants ASAP. Back to primary energy. electricity is secondary energy. It must be generated by the use of primary energy and as I wrote in my commentary in POWER Magazine in 2021, “Thermal Power is #1”

Conclusions of How to Solve the Electricity Generation Capacity Crisis

The forecast of needing 128 GW of new electricity generation capacity by 2030 is very close to the total capacity (125 GW) of coal plant shutdowns since 2013. So, why not replace at least that quantity of electricity generation with new clean coal plants?

The Supply-Chain for building new coal plants could in fact be ramped up faster (but NOT Fast enough) than the Supply-Chain for new nuclear generation capacity in the same time period. The Gas Turbine Supply-Chain is already at capacity and new gas turbines have lead times of four or five years.

Building 128 GW of new coal plant capacity is a huge undertaking. I have written before about my personal experiences at the Roxboro Generating Station and other 2,000+ MW Coal Plants. It took over fifteen years to build all four units at Roxboro, (first commercial operations 1966-1980), Each unit required about 2,000 skilled craftsmen to construct the units. The 128 GW figure represents over 50 plants the size of Roxboro. To construct a 2,462 MW coal plant it would take about 80,000 tons of structural steel, a million tons of concrete and tens of thousands of miles of wire and yes, likely more than ten years to complete from permitting, design, component manufacturing and field construction stages through commercial operation. Just one of the four units, Roxboro #3 became a contract in 1968 and began commercial operations in 1973. It took two more years of debugging to reach full capacity. I know, I was the lead startup engineer. That was then and with a vibrant and capable supply chain.

From a skilled talent perspective, this is a lot of engineers for design, Boilermakers, Pipe fitters, Iron Workers, Instrument Technicians, electricians and many more skills for the construction. Than there is the manufacturing supply-chain. One example is the once magnificent Manufacturing facilities at Combustion-Engineering’s Chattanooga Works. Now this is gone. A previous article covered the power generation supply-chain of the 1970’s here…The challenge is formidable, we should start now.

Warm regards,

Dick Storm, April 18, 2025

References and Information for Further Research on “How we Got Here” the Importance of Primary Energy and more for your reading enjoyment and enlightenment of energy policies in America.

  1. “The Value of Coal”, Coal Zoom by Fred Palmer and Frank Clemente, March 2025: https://www.coalzoom.com/article.cfm?articleid=39111
  2. Visualizing 100 Quadrillion BTUs. Shouldn’t Coal Remain in our Energy Mix?” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/07/02/visualizing-100-quadrillion-btus-of-primary-energy-coal-should-remain-in-our-energy-mix/
  3. Coal’s Final Battle, May 18, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/05/20/coals-final-battle/
  4. The Reality of Electrifying Everything,  April 9, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/04/09/the-reality-of-electrifying-everything-and-the-primary-energy-required-to-generate-the-electricity/
  5. Threats to the Electric Grid, March 15, 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/15/threats-to-the-grid-electricity-reliability/
  6. Giant Sucking Sound, March 18, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/18/giant-sucking-sound/
  7. Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 2, The Reality of Replacing Conventional Forms of Energy, Jan. 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/06/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-2-some-facts-on-the-reality-of-replacing-conventional-forms-of-energy/
  8.  Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 3, The Transition that Isn’t, from the perspective of Minerals, Feb. 8, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/08/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-3-the-transition-that-isnt-from-the-perspective-of-minerals/
  9. The Rise and Fall and Rise Again  of Nations and the  Realities of Energy: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/08/15/the-rise-fall-and-rise-again-of-nations-and-the-realities-of-energy/
  10. America Needs 100 Quadrillion BTUs of Primary Energy Each Year, May 16, 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/05/16/back-to-basics-the-u-s-needs-100-quadrillion-btus-year-of-primary-energy/  
  11.  Pillars of Modern Civilization, Ammonia, Food, Steel, Concrete, Plastics, Aluminum, July 2022: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/07/25/pillars-of-modern-civilization-all-dependent-on-energy/
  12. How Can a 6,000 MW Utility that will be a 9,000MW Utility in 2050, become Net-Zero Carbon? April 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/04/27/how-can-a-6000-mw-regional-utility-in-2030-which-likely-will-be-a-9000-mw-utility-in-2050-achieve-net-zero-carbon/
  13. America’s Treasure of Fossil Fuels, Update of 2011 presentation to ASME: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/11/26/americas-treasure-of-fossil-fuels/
  14.  American Dream = 100 Quadrillion BTUs per Year April 7, 2022: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/07/04/american-dream-100-quadrillion-btus/
  15.   Providing a Sustainable Million BTUs per Day/Person, May 17,  2022: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/05/17/providing-a-sustainable-million-btus-per-day-per-person-by-fuel-source/
  16.  A Short History of Power Generation, Part 1, 1850-1955, January 2022: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/01/14/a-short-history-of-energy-electricity-and-how-our-high-quality-of-living-came-to-be-high-human-development-index-part-1-1850-1955/
  17.  A Short History of Power Generation, Part 2:  https://wp.me/p5DzAo-k6
  18.  A Short History of Power Generation, Part 3: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-ll
  19.  A Short History of Power Generation, Part 4: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-n4
  20. Energy=Life as We Enjoy it, Aug. 22, 2022: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2022/08/22/energy-life-that-is-life-as-we-enjoy-it/
  21. POWER Magazine commentary by Dick Storm, “All Fuels are Important but Thermal Power Generation is Still Number 1” https://www.powermag.com/blog/all-fuels-are-important-but-thermal-power-generation-is-still-number-1/
  22. Subsidized Solar and Wind Is Undermining the Grid, While Coal Provides Reliable Baseload Power, But Trump Is On It!Thomas J. Shepstone and the Institute for Energy Research, March 2025: https://open.substack.com/pub/energysecurityfreedom/p/coal-a-reliable-baseload-power-vs?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
  23. POWER Magazine Jan. 2025 on Forecasted Power Shortages of PJM: https://www.powermag.com/pjm-facing-capacity-shortage-as-early-as-2026-2027-delivery-year-agrees-to-lower-auction-price-cap/
  24. Power Magazine, April 2025 on Electricity Growth and Five RTO’s Warning FERC of Generation Capacity Shortages in the Future: https://www.powermag.com/nations-power-operators-warn-congress-of-a-coming-reliability-shortfall/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=3214I3524889A9B
  25. Coal Power, It is the End Result that Matters!:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2025/03/28/coal-power-it-is-the-end-result-that-counts/
  26. Lars Schernikau Newsletter on the impact of failed energy policies on German Industry : https://sh1.sendinblue.com/3gvdip76f0lpfe.html?t=1744529565190
  27. EIA List or Electricity Generation Plants by Fuel Source 2013-2023: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/table.php?t=epa_04_02_a.html
  28. Wake Up America! Sept. 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/09/20/please-wake-up-america-your-energy-and-electricity-generation-reliability-are-at-risk/
  29.  Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 1,  79 Quadrillion BTUs, The Enormity of the Fossil Energy Systems Providing Sustainable Lives, Jan. 11, 2024 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/01/11/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-1-79-quadrillion-btusthe-enormity-of-the-fossil-energy-systems-providing-sustainable-lives/
  30.  Influencers of U.S. Energy Policy, January 3, 2023: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/04/influencers-of-american-energy-policy/
  31. Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 2, The Reality of Replacing Conventional Forms of Energy, Jan. 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/06/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-2-some-facts-on-the-reality-of-replacing-conventional-forms-of-energy/
  32.  Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 3, The Transition that Isn’t, from the perspective of Minerals, Feb. 8, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/08/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-part-3-the-transition-that-isnt-from-the-perspective-of-minerals/
  33. Facing the Hard Truths of Energy, Part 4, The True Agenda for Climate Policies, Feb. 13, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/02/13/facing-the-hard-truths-of-energy-electricity-generation-and-environmental-protection-part-4-what-is-the-true-agenda-for-climate-policies/
  34. Energy Matters! March 2024 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/11/energy-matters/
  35. Update on Hawaii’s “Green New Deal” March 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/20/hawaii-a-glimpse-into-the-future-of-the-green-new-deal-aka-inflation-reduction-act-here-is-an-update/
  36. The Rise and Fall of Nations from the perspective of nuclear power systems manufacturing: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/08/15/the-rise-fall-and-rise-again-of-nations-and-the-realities-of-energy/
  37. Thomas J. Shepstone posting on Substack of,  “Energy Matters If You Value the Life You Now Have and Don’t Want to Live Under Socialism March 11, 2024: https://open.substack.com/pub/energysecurityfreedom/p/energy-matters-if-you-value-the-life?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email  
  38.  Threats to the Electric Grid, March 15, 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/15/threats-to-the-grid-electricity-reliability/
  39. Giant Sucking Sound, March 18, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/18/giant-sucking-sound/
  40. “Update on Hawaii’s Glimpse of the Future of the Green New Deal” March 20, 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/03/20/hawaii-a-glimpse-into-the-future-of-the-green-new-deal-aka-inflation-reduction-act-here-is-an-update/
  41. The Reality of Electrifying Everything,  April 9, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/04/09/the-reality-of-electrifying-everything-and-the-primary-energy-required-to-generate-the-electricity/
  42. Am I Missing Something? Here is an Update on Hyundai’s Commitment to their EV Meta Plant in Georgia:   https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/04/14/am-i-missing-something-on-evs-here-is-an-update-on-hyundais-meta-plant-commitment-to-evs-and-hydrogen-vehicles/
  43. Tom Shepstone post on Substack of Dick Storm letter to Senator Tom Davis: https://energysecurityfreedom.substack.com/p/a-balanced-energy-portfolio-is-critical/comments
  44. Dick Storm LI Post on SC Energy policies and failed coal and nuclear plant plans: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7184184178920312833?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  45. Saving America: Issues that Matter, April 28, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/04/29/saving-america-from-destructive-policies-the-real-issues-that-matter-part-1/
  46. How Can a 6,000 MW Utility in 2030 Become a 9,000 MW Utility in 2050 and Still Meet Net Zero Carbon? Update of last year’s article, May 2, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/05/02/how-can-a-6000-mw-regional-utility-in-2030-which-likely-will-be-a-9000-mw-utility-in-2050-achieve-net-zero-carbon-an-update-on-my-electricity-provider-in-south-carolina/
  47. Coal’s Final Battle, May 18, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/05/20/coals-final-battle/
  48. Tom Shepstone’s Substack repost of Dick Storm commentary, May 20, 2024: https://open.substack.com/pub/energysecurityfreedom/p/why-we-the-american-people-must-win?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
  49. Visualizing 100 Quadrillion BTUs. Shouldn’t Coal Remain in our Energy Mix?” : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/07/02/visualizing-100-quadrillion-btus-of-primary-energy-coal-should-remain-in-our-energy-mix/
  50. We the People vs. The Ten Headed Swamp Monster     :  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/07/10/we-the-people-vs-net-zero-indoctrination-by-the-ten-headed-swamp-monster/
  51. The Magnificent and Indispensable Heat Engines Society Depends on: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/07/30/the-magnificent-and-indispensable-heat-engine-on-which-civil-society-depends-part-1-heat-engines-1-3-million-horsepower/ 
  52. The Magnificent and Indispensable Heat Engine, Part II, Focus on Ocean Shipping: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/08/07/the-magnificent-and-indispensable-heat-engine-on-which-civil-society-depends-part-ii-focus-on-fossil-fuels-for-ocean-shipping/
  53. The Magnificent and Indispensable Heat Engine, Part III, August 13, 2024: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/08/13/the-magnificent-and-indispensable-heat-engine-on-which-civil-society-depends-part-iii-internal-combustion-engines-up-to-110000-horsepower/
  54. The Coming Electricity Reliability Crisis and the Importance of Coal, Sept. 12, 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/09/12/the-electricity-reliability-crisis-and-the-importance-of-american-coal/
  55. The Kingdom of Heaven Runs on Righteousness, The Kingdom of Earth Runs on Energy, Oct. 3, 2024:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/10/03/heaven-runs-on-righteousness-earth-runs-on-energy/
  56. Charley Reese’s Last Column, “545 vs. 300,000,000 : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/11/27/charley-reeses-last-column-a-classic-commentary-written-over-twenty-years-ago/
  57.  Why is Western Civilization Self Sabotaging the Primary Energy that Provides 80% of the fuel for America’s Life-Blood of Reliable Electricity, with the War on Carbon?.     : https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2024/12/17/why-is-western-civilization-self-sabotaging-the-primary-energy-sources-that-provide-80-of-the-fuel-for-americas-life-blood-of-reliable-electricity-with-the-war-on-carbon/
  58. Musings on the Self-Sabotaging Energy Policies and a Reminder of the History of the Rise and Fall of Nations:  https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2025/01/13/musings-on-self-sabotaging-energy-policies-and-a-reminder-of-the-history-of-the-rise-and-fall-of-nations/
  59. The EPA “Endangerment Finding” and why it Needs to Go, Feb. 2, 2025: https://wp.me/p5DzAo-1ZW
  60. The SWAMP MONSTER vs. 300 Million Americans, Feb. 21, 2025: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2025/02/21/the-swamp-monster-vs-the-best-interests-of-the-united-states-of-america/
  61. Thomas J. Shepstone Substack on Dick Storm’s “Primer on How to Ensure Electricity Security (and How to Destroy It)”:  https://open.substack.com/pub/energysecurityfreedom/p/a-primer-on-how-to-ensure-energy?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false 
  62.  Existing EPA-Endangerment Rules Impact South Carolina Electricity Costs and Will Cause Rationing if the EPA Endangerment Finding Isn’t Repealed  Feb. 28, 2025: https://dickstormprobizblog.org/2025/02/28/existing-epa-rules-increase-costs-and-will-cause-rationing-of-electricity-in-south-carolina-if-endangerment-finding-is-not-repealed/
  63. Duke Energy web page for Roxboro Coal Plant: https://www.duke-energy.com/our-company/about-us/power-plants/roxboro-plant
  64. NMA Map of Electricity Prices and coal power in lower 48 states: https://nma.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/coal-gen-map-2023.pdf
  65. WSJ article on “Economic Growth Depends on Electricity, Not Oil”, March 27, 2025: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/economic-growth-now-depends-on-electricity-not-oil-40250941?st=cbzcRt  
  66. Bjorn Lomberg on the High Cost of Solar and Wind, Climate Change Dispatch, Jan. 2, 2025: https://climatechangedispatch.com/wind-solar-hidden-truth-behind-rising-electric-bills/
  67. Frazer Institute, “Hot Air, Cold Truths, Bjorn Lomberg, March 2025: https://www.fraserinstitute.org/hot-air-and-cold-truths-bjorn-lomborg
  68. Delaware County Insider, Wind and Solar are Expensive, Bjorn Lomberg, May 24,  2024: https://delawarevalleyjournal.com/lomborg-the-true-cost-of-wind-and-solar-energy/
  69. Yahoo Finance and National Post, March 2025, Bjorn Lomberg, Wind and Solar are Expensive: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bjorn-lomborg-solar-wind-power-100008520.html
  70. NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment Report and including, Data Center Load Growth, December 2024: https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_Long%20Term%20Reliability%20Assessment_2024.pdf
  71. Beautiful Clean Coal and it is Affordable too, Stephen Heins, Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling! https://open.substack.com/pub/stephenheins/p/headline-beautiful-clean-coal-is?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
  72. We Need More Energy, Lots More Energy, by Stephen Heins, Chris Wright and Shan Sankara : https://open.substack.com/pub/stephenheins/p/headline-chris-wright-by-shan-sankara?r=kv1a9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
  73. POWER Magazine on the surge in Gas Turbine sales, four year lead times, April 2025: https://www.powermag.com/gas-powers-boom-sparks-a-turbine-supply-crunch/

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