June 26, 2023 9:57 am
In parts 1 and 2 of this Green Energy Series, the Green Energy Crisis and which people and organizations caused it. (part 1 here and part 2 here) The purpose of this post is to attempt to explain the impossibility of replacing conventional forms of Primary energy with wind and solar.
America consumes right at 100 Quadrillion Btus of energy each year. This has been fairly constant for decades. My previous posts here and here have explained this. Broken down to a per capita basis this is about 315 million Btus per year, per person/year. This is as compiled by the EIA and each BTU of energy is based on the thermodynamic equivalent of the following. From BP stats here:
The book, “Clean Energy Crisis” by Donn Dears is an outstanding reference and short read. I will use Mr. Dear’s books, data and calculations for much of this post.
What are the sources of America’s Primary energy now? The two charts that show this best are the Statista Bar chart and the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory Sankey Digram. Both are copied below:
The government, MSM, Entertainment, Woke corporations (and there are a lot of them), public school education, the WEF, Environmental Extremists and many politically active organizations have waged a Demonization of conventional fuels since about 1970(13). My take on this history of environmental extremism is covered in part 2 of this series.
Electrifying everything, of course, (such as transportation EV’s) will require much more electricity generation. That is, if we are to continue to live our high quality of living and freedom of travel.
Sustaining our current life-styles and economy will require an average of about 315 million Btus/person/year.
This math is a fact and it is provided by the EIA. Please note the Statista and Sankey Diagrams above which show the Total Primary Energy Flows for 2021. The key word is Primary Energy. Electricity is Secondary Energy. Note that about 37% of the total Primary Energy was used to generate electricity. Of that total, less than 5% of the total Primary Energy used to generate electricity was provided from solar and wind. Let’s go to Mr. Dears book, Clean Energy Crisis and take a look at what it would take to replace fossil fuels. It is my understanding that Mr. Dears book calculations are projected from normal electricity growth, not including “Total Electrification of Transportation” and NOT to provide for Industrial Reshoring of industries lost to China over the last 20 years, especially primary metals industries such as steel, aluminum and copper. Primary metals production is particularly energy intensive.
These numbers below are the number of units of each form of carbon free generation that it would take to provide the electricity demand expected in 2050. Keep in mind, future predictions of any kind are always done with uncertainty.
The combined design, manufacturing, construction and commissioning of replacements for the existing installed capacity of coal, gas and nuclear plants would take over a hundred years to build, in my opinion. I recommend reading and referring to Mr. Dears book to form your own opinion. Below is a paragraph from chapter 8 of “Clean Energy Crisis”, page 59:
“Transition Reality”
“1. It is impossible for the United States to achieve Net-Zero carbon by 2050
2. CO2 is not an existential threat to mankind”
If these two conclusions are correct, and there’s considerable evidence that they are, the entire clean energy transition is a dangerous delusion.
Europe is learning the importance of energy security as it struggles to find sources of fossil fuels.”
I agree with the conclusions of Donn Dears.
This post was started a couple months ago and I thought;
“What is a positive approach to correct the indoctrination?”
The solution to the problem (Self Sabotaging America’s Energy Infrastructure) is Energy Education of the public. Those of us folks who were born before 1950 remember the Public Utilities energy education programs from the 1950’s through the 1970’s “Living Better Electrically”. One example is the Sunday night TV program of the 1960’s, the “General Electric Theatre” which showcased Ronald Reagan as a spokesperson for G-E, to introduce new electrical appliances that were making a Mother’s work easier and living better electrically a reality for all Americans(4). Reddy Kilowatt was the mascot for the programs by the Investor owned Utilities. Living better electrically was shown on TV, electric bill inserts, newspapers and perhaps more importantly, in public schools. Local electric Utilities had regular programs in High Schools to teach not only Home Economics and how to cook using electric stoves, for the girls, but also “How Electricity is Generated” for the boys. I know, today that sounds wrong and politically incorrect, but back when we referred to Boys and Girls. People also had a better understanding of where our electricity came from. In fact, I was one of them that as a 16 year old (in 1959), I became enamored with coal power generation. A true fact. And I was just an average student, but I knew how electricity was generated as a teen.
In my view, this is what America needs again. Improved energy education for all ages to teach the importance of energy and the various sources of primary energy that can meet our needs.
This is a tall order. Better energy education of the public has been an idea I have had for at least two decades. When living in N.C. I did paid weekly “Energy Fact Minutes” on the radio with my old friend Matt Smith and also placed full page paid advertisements in the local Stanly News and Press newspaper.
Since then, I have written to the leaders of several Utility companies, including Lynn Good CEO of Duke Energy and the CEO of our Electric cooperative, A. Berl Davis (Palmetto Electric) to suggest such energy education programs to be reinstated. The letters and message were ignored and in fact, not answered. Those Utilities and Coop’s are Politically Correct and at least partially “Woke”…. they are Promoting the myth of green energy instead of educating the public on the true facts of energy and electricity generation.
A review of the history of how energy replaced muscle power in both the U.S. during the 20th Century and China in the 21st would be instructive for anyone who doubts the importance of conventional energy. I wrote three blog posts on the history of energy and electricity and the growth of economic prosperity, here, here and here. Also, a course presented to USCB-OLLI Program on the history of Energy and Electricity is here.
A good question. Mr. Tom Moser of the retired, NASA Right Stuff Climate Team is shown on a presentation by the Heartland Institute in February. At the end of his presentation, (at about the 15 minutes mark) he addresses this issue with regard to educating the public and changing public policy on the current path of Net-Zero Carbon. The number he used was 50 million dollars. A good start, but it will take much more to reverse the demonization of carbon in the public’s minds.
There are many reasons why the transition to wind, solar and nuclear by 2050 is unreasonable, impractical and essentially, impossible. Some reasons are simply the laws of Physics which have been explained in easy to understand terms by Donn Dears, Vaclav Smil and others. Some of the reasons are Supply-Chain related.
America invented commercial nuclear power generation and once had a strong U.S. based manufacturing infrastructure. I know this for a fact because I was employed by B&W when nuclear power was expected to grow so fast and so efficiently , “It would be too Cheap to Meter”. Now the massive manufacturing facilities of Combustion Engineering in Chattanooga, TN and many more facilities ( like Textiles and Furniture manufacturing in U.S.) are mostly gone. Also, included in the supply chain concerns & limitations is training of the workforce. Those of us old enough to remember President Kennedy’s inspirational “We Choose the Moon” speech of 1960 where he stated we “will land on the moon within ten years” remember the extremely successful upgrading of public education in math and science and the large number of excellent engineers that were trained 1960-1970. In my view, “Electrifying Everything” at least everything possible, will take a larger commitment than the space program of the 1960’s and we cannot electrify everything nor can we replace fossil fuels with wind and solar. The fundamental Physics of energy and electricity need to be taught to all students and adults. Like the Edison Electric Institute and Electric Utilities did in the 1960’s with the “Live Better Electrically” program and Federal and State governments did to inspire excellence in public STEM education, 1960-1970.
So, where do we start? As I see it, we need to educate the public on energy and how it is produced and used. A model of public education on energy was accomplished between 1950 and 1970. Let’s take a look at what we once did in energy awareness for the public. The B&W ad is from a nationally distributed business magazine in 1954.
Just for the record, I practice what I preach and have done my best to spread the word to my friends, neighbors and the communities where I have lived for decades. In the past three years I have presented several courses at USCB-OLLI in Beaufort County, SC, given presentations in Public Schools and civic clubs. Most of my presentations are available in pdf on LinkedIn or on my blog. If I can assist or share any info to others interested in educating the public on the facts of the importance of conventional energy, let me know, I will help as best as I can.
Thank you for reading. This blog is my small contribution to spreading the true facts on the importance of conventional forms of energy.
Yours truly,
Dick Storm, June 23, 2023
Posted by dickstormprobizblog and dickstormenergyelectricity.org
Categories: economic prosperity and energy, Education, Energy, Politics and Economic Prosperity, Nuclear
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Please write an opinion article about the Green Energy charlatan, Michael Mann and his recent Wash DC court victory against climate change hoax exposer, the great Mark Steyn. I am saddened that a man of great intellect, honesty and courage like Mark Steyn would be charged with Defamation of dishonest Michael Mann, who has been a professional liar about climate data for decades now. Thank you, Respectively, Don Scanlan
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By matthewdonald8709 on February 9, 2024 at 8:02 pm
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By The Importance of Fuel Diversity to Power Our Economy and Our Lives, Part 1 | Dick Storm's Thoughts on Energy, Education, Economic Prosperity & Environmental Blog – Internet Archive Search on July 31, 2024 at 9:33 pm